↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 周末的市场休息，本来还是很平淡，但这周末，特朗普又带来了王炸消息！ 01 辟谣！摩尔线程上市！ 先看一下周五大家比较关注的科技板块的一个小作文，周五科技板块，半导体，芯片，算力出现了调整，冲高回落，而且收盘时跌幅也是比较大 的。 在周五盘中传出了一则小作文的消息：25号摩尔线程在交易所的状态为"暂缓审核"，上市被卡。也是周五芯片半导体板块下跌的一个原因。 但在昨天，就被马上辟谣，上海证券交易所上市委审议通过了摩尔线程智能科技（北京）股份有限公司的首发申请。从6月30日上市申请获受理到 成功过会，摩尔线程仅用时88天，创下科创板审核周期的最快纪录。 此次IPO， 摩尔线程计划募资80亿元人民币，是年内A股过会项目中募资规模最大的项目，同时也是年内半导体领域最大规模的IPO。 02 又要开战？ 再来看看这个周末的重磅消息，周末市场休息，但是特朗普不休。来看一下周末这两天关于特朗普的消息。 据美煤日报道，4名消息人士透露， 美国军方官员正在制定针对委内瑞拉境内"贩毒分子"的行动方案，并可能在几周内开始对该国境内目标的打 击。 值得一提的是， 委内瑞拉 是世界重要石油生产与出口国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a diversified, long-term investment strategy, particularly through a "permanent investment strategy" that balances various asset classes to achieve stable returns while minimizing risk [4][5][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The author advocates for a global multi-asset allocation approach, suggesting that investors should not overly concentrate on high-valuation sectors [4][5]. - A sample permanent investment portfolio is proposed, consisting of 12.5% in Nasdaq 100, 12.5% in S&P 500, 25% in gold, 25% in Chinese bonds, and 25% in U.S. bonds [6][12]. - Historical backtesting of this strategy shows a three-year return of 70.74%, outperforming the CSI 300's 18.41% and slightly lagging behind the S&P 500's 83.51% [9][12]. Group 2: Risk and Performance Metrics - The maximum drawdown for the permanent strategy is reported at 9.19%, significantly lower than the CSI 300's 24.8% and the S&P 500's 18.62% [9][12]. - The Sharpe ratio for the permanent strategy is calculated at 0.12, compared to 0.02 for the CSI 300 and 0.08 for the S&P 500, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [9][12]. - The strategy's positive return days are at 55.14%, slightly higher than the CSI 300's 49%, suggesting that while the strategy does not yield daily profits, it benefits from lower volatility [9][12]. Group 3: Long-term Performance - Over five years, the permanent strategy achieved a return of 79.1%, while the CSI 300 only returned 0.07% and the S&P 500 returned 115.36% [13]. - The article notes that rebalancing the portfolio over five years resulted in a decrease in performance from 76.3% to 66.6%, attributed to the strong upward trends in U.S. stocks and gold [17]. - The author argues that long-term rebalancing can enhance returns during market downturns by locking in profits and allowing for reinvestment at lower prices [17]. Group 4: Asset Correlation - The correlation between S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 is very high at 0.97, indicating limited diversification benefits between these two assets [20]. - In contrast, the correlation between S&P 500 and gold is only 0.01, and between S&P 500 and U.S. bonds is 0.09, highlighting the importance of including low-correlation assets in a diversified portfolio [20]. - The article suggests that the current market is heavily concentrated in large-cap tech stocks, which may pose risks if the broader economy weakens [21].

Group 1: US Tariff Policy Changes - The latest US tariff measures on pharmaceuticals will not apply to countries that have trade agreements with the US, such as the EU and Japan, which will continue to adhere to the agreed 15% tariff cap [2][5] - The UK, however, will face a 100% tariff on pharmaceutical exports to the US, as negotiations on drug-related tax rates are still ongoing [5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Data - Following the announcement of the tariff changes, the Asia-Pacific pharmaceutical stocks experienced declines, with companies like BeiGene down 4% and Sumitomo Pharma down over 3% [2] - On September 26, US stock indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.65% and the S&P 500 up 0.59%, driven by inflation data that raised expectations for interest rate cuts [6][12] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for September was reported at 55.1, slightly lower than the preliminary value, while the core PCE price index showed a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations [13] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - The precious metals market experienced a significant rally, with COMEX gold futures rising 0.5% to $3789.8 per ounce and silver futures up 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, marking a 14-year high for silver [15][16] - Over the past six months, silver has seen a cumulative increase of over 30%, outperforming most commodities, with a year-to-date rise of 59%, compared to gold's 43% [17] - The current gold-silver ratio indicates that silver is undervalued relative to historical averages, suggesting potential for price correction [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant shift in market trends since early July, highlighting the underperformance of bank stocks compared to technology sectors like communications and semiconductors, which have seen substantial gains [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Before July, bank stocks had the highest gains among all sectors, with a peak increase of over 22%, but have since dropped to a 6.8% increase [3]. - The author reflects on the missed opportunity of reallocating investments from bank stocks to technology stocks during this period, which could have resulted in higher returns [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes the importance of a dividend and equity mindset, suggesting that during bear markets, dividend stocks serve as a safer investment, experiencing smaller declines compared to growth stocks [8][10]. - It advocates for a long-term investment strategy that includes buying undervalued companies with high dividends, ensuring a safety margin and consistent income [12][14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The author contrasts two investment approaches: dividend stock investment, which prioritizes safety and stable returns, and technology stock investment, which seeks high returns but comes with higher risks [17][18]. - The article suggests that investors should consider their understanding of technology stocks and their long-term profitability before making investment decisions, using Warren Buffett's approach as a guiding principle [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the ChiNext index, which has reached a three-year high, driven by significant movements in specific stocks and sectors, particularly in the gaming, AI applications, and solid-state battery industries. Group 1: Company Highlights - The stock of Upwind New Materials surged by 20%, reaching 132.1 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 53.3 billion CNY, marking it as the top performer in the A-share market this year with an astonishing annual increase of 1892% [3][6]. - Upwind New Materials underwent a significant ownership change, with Zhiyuan Robotics acquiring a 29.99% stake, making it the new controlling shareholder, and plans to further acquire 37% of the shares at a price of 7.78 CNY per share, requiring up to 1.16 billion CNY [6][7][8]. - The acquisition is seen as a strategic move to integrate the supply chain, focusing on the application of composite materials in lightweight robotic structures, rather than a shell listing [9]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The solid-state battery sector is gaining momentum, with companies like Ningde Times reaching a market cap of 1.79 trillion CNY, driven by advancements in solid-state battery technology and a recent conference discussing its future [10][13]. - The copper industry saw a rise in stock prices due to a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, which accounts for about 3% of global copper supply, leading to concerns over supply disruptions and supporting copper prices [15][18]. - The gaming sector is experiencing a resurgence, with several stocks hitting new highs following the approval of 145 domestic games and 11 imported games by the National Press and Publication Administration, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase in game approvals [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant market differentiation observed in 2023, highlighting the contrasting performances of the food and beverage sector, which has seen a decline of 0.87%, versus the technology sector, which has experienced gains exceeding 40% in indices like the Shenwan Communications and Shenwan Electronics [5][6]. Group 1: Thematic Investing - The concept of "thematic investing" involves selecting a specific investment theme and identifying companies that support this theme, ultimately constructing an investment portfolio around these companies [8]. - While many investors believe that choosing the right theme guarantees profits, the reality is that missteps can lead to substantial losses, as evidenced by the contrasting fortunes of "old" and "new" asset classes in previous market cycles [9][10]. - Historical data shows that many investors in thematic funds have not recouped their investments, particularly those who entered at market peaks [10]. Group 2: Conditions for Successful Thematic Investment - To profit from thematic funds, three conditions must be met: identifying long-term winning themes, selecting funds that can capitalize on these themes, and entering the market at undervalued times [19][24]. - A reliable investment theme should be supported by solid logic, such as industry policy support or technological breakthroughs, rather than mere speculation [20]. - The timing of investment is crucial; entering a popular theme after it has already gained traction can lead to missed opportunities and potential losses [25]. Group 3: Role of Thematic Funds in Portfolios - For most ordinary investors, thematic funds are not essential for achieving steady profits, as they do not significantly diversify risk compared to other asset classes [27]. - The correlation between thematic funds and major market indices has remained high, suggesting that adding thematic funds to a portfolio with index funds may not provide substantial risk diversification [28]. - Thematic funds are better suited as "satellite holdings" rather than "core allocations" within an investment portfolio, and their proportion should be strictly controlled to mitigate potential losses during market fluctuations [30][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the downfall of Curtis Faith, the author of the "Turtle Trading Rules," highlighting the contrast between his past success as a trader and his current state of bankruptcy and homelessness, emphasizing the unpredictability of life and the importance of discipline in trading [3][4][18]. Group 1: Turtle Trading Rules - The Turtle Trading Rules, developed in the 1980s by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, is a well-known mechanical trading system that proved trading can be taught [5][6]. - The system is based on trend-following principles, where traders buy when prices break above certain levels and sell when they fall below others, focusing on capturing market trends [7][10]. - Key components of the system include entry signals based on price breakouts, risk management by limiting exposure to 1% of account funds per trade, and strict stop-loss rules to cut losses [7][10]. Group 2: Curtis Faith's Journey - Curtis Faith was one of the youngest Turtle Traders, achieving significant profits early in his career, reportedly earning over $10 million for his fund [15][17]. - After leaving the Turtle program, he attempted various ventures, including startups in IT and blockchain, but faced numerous failures, leading to financial ruin [19][25]. - His recent legal troubles and homelessness serve as a cautionary tale about the volatility of trading success and the risks of overextending in speculative ventures [13][28]. Group 3: Lessons Learned - The article emphasizes the importance of skepticism towards trading gurus, suggesting that even successful traders can face significant failures, as demonstrated by Faith's experience [30][32]. - It warns against excessive risk-taking and highlights the need for disciplined investment strategies, contrasting trend-following with value investing approaches [34][37]. - The narrative concludes with a reflection on the long-term nature of successful investing, advocating for diversified asset allocation as a means to withstand market fluctuations [50].

↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 作者：奶牛的天空 来源：雪球 牛市大批人去做短线了，但是我依然执着于长线投资。今天来聊聊投资回报公式： 长期投资收益率=股息率+利润成长+估值变动 。举例：假设买入 股 票 时 ， 实 时 股 息 率 为 5% ， 利 润 成 长 年 化 为 5% ， PE 为 10； 假 设 卖 出 股 票 时 PE 保 持 不 变 ， 那 么 持 有 这 只 股 票 的 长 期 投 资 收 益 率 为 10%（5%+5%）。 一般来说，企业的基本面不发生变化的前提下，其估值会在一个区域内来回波动，期间可能会随着市场走牛或走熊而发生变化，但是最终的长期估 值还是会回归到它的基本面上来。 总结起来讲，基本面决定企业的长期估值，市场牛熊影响企业的短期估值。 下面我将逐一把公式里的3个元素讲 透： 一、 股息率为股票买入时的实时股息率 炒股软件上的股息率数据通常会有些滞后，特别是当天股价波动比较大的时候影响就比较大，我们可以自行来计算，准确率可以达到100%。 实时股息率=分红金额/当前实时股价*股权摊薄率。 如果企业一年有多次分红，注意要把各次的分红都加上。同时，如果企业每年的分红政策不是 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced a downward trend with all three major indices closing lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.30%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.16% [1] - Trading volume significantly decreased, with the total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets at 2.32 trillion, a reduction of 811.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] High-Profile Stock Declines - Shanghai Construction fell to its daily limit, with a latest stock price of 3.49 yuan and a market capitalization of 31 billion [3] - The stock of Shanghai Construction saw a cumulative increase of 61% over five trading days from September 12 to September 18, with high turnover rates of 24.68% and 25.83% on September 17 and 18, indicating a "hot potato" effect [8] - Similarly, Shoukai Co., which had previously seen 12 consecutive days of gains, also experienced a limit down [9] Robotics Sector Retreat - The robotics sector saw a widespread decline, with stocks like Wolong Electric Drive, Bojie Co., and Wanxiang Qianchao hitting their daily limits, and Sanhua Intelligent Control dropping over 8% [13] - Wolong Electric Drive announced that its robotics-related products accounted for only 2.71% of its total revenue, indicating that the recent stock fluctuations would not significantly impact its operational performance [16] Lithium Mining Sector Surge - The lithium mining sector experienced a rally, with Ganfeng Lithium hitting its daily limit and other companies like Tianqi Lithium and Shengxin Lithium also seeing gains [17][18] - The upcoming 2025 Suining International Lithium Battery Industry Conference is expected to address safety and development standards in the lithium battery industry [20] Logistics Sector Activity - The logistics sector was active, with leading stock Shentong Express hitting its daily limit, and other companies like Huapengfei and YTO Express also seeing significant increases [21] - Recent operational data for August showed that YTO Express generated 5.39 billion yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 9.82%, while Shentong Express reported a revenue of 4.43 billion yuan, up 14.47% year-on-year [24][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the business models of two companies, Moutai and Pop Mart, comparing their profitability and sustainability, ultimately suggesting that both have strong business models but differ in market dynamics and future potential [2][3][8]. Profitability Metrics - Moutai has a gross margin of 90% and a net margin of 50%, making it one of the best globally [3]. - Pop Mart has a gross margin of 70% and a net margin of 35%, ranking among the top five but not surpassing Moutai [3]. Sustainability of Business Models - The white liquor market is expected to face a decline in consumer demographics, which poses challenges for Moutai in maintaining or increasing market share [5]. - Pop Mart has the potential for better sustainability due to its broader market appeal and the ability to tap into international markets, particularly the U.S. [6][7]. Market Opportunities - Pop Mart's IP, labubu, is considered significantly undervalued, with the potential to contribute substantial value alongside a matrix of top-tier IPs [6]. - The U.S. market is viewed as a major opportunity, with potential revenues estimated to be 2-3 times that of the domestic market, given the higher average revenue per store [6]. Management Quality - Moutai's management is seen as competent but not as strong as that of leading global companies like Apple [10]. - Pop Mart's management is viewed favorably, with aspirations to reach the level of Apple in the future [11]. Valuation Comparison - Current static PE ratios are approximately 25 for Pop Mart and 20 for Moutai, indicating they are in a similar valuation range [11]. - Both companies are expected to show stable performance in the short term, with earnings serving as a lower bound for future performance [11]. Revenue Growth Potential - Pop Mart is projected to reach 50 billion in revenue, with a trajectory towards 100 billion, indicating strong growth potential [12].