国际贵金属期货普遍收跌 当地时间9月17日，国际贵金属期货普遍收跌。截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货主力合约跌 0.82%，报3694.6美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主力合约跌2.15%，报41.995美元/盎司。 牛市来了还没上车？上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限 量发放！先到先得！ 当地时间9月17日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一。道琼斯工业指数涨0.57%，标普500指数跌 0.1%，纳斯达克指数跌0.33%。 美股大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌0.66%。个股方面，英伟达跌超 2%，亚马逊跌超1%，谷歌、Meta小幅下跌；特斯拉涨逾1%，苹果、微软小幅上涨。 | < w | 万得美国科技七巨头指数(MAG: | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 09-17 16:00:00 | | | | 62564.05 | 昨收 | 62979.74 | | | -415.69 -0.66% | 今开 62867.54 | | 4.01亿 | | 上涨 3 | 平盘 0 下跌 | | 4 | | 最高价 62922.78 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish stance on precious metals prices, with a focus on the price increase opportunities of silver under the background of the Fed's preventive interest rate cuts [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than market expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver prices [2] - Powell's characterization of this rate cut as "risk - management" alleviated market expectations of an overseas economic recession, which was a positive factor for silver with more obvious industrial attributes [2] - The voting pattern of this interest rate meeting implies a lower probability of current director Waller being elected as the new Fed Chairman, and the probability of Hassett taking office is increasing. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will rise with the appointment of the new chairman. Currently, a bullish view on precious metals prices should be maintained [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.76%, closing at 832.64 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 1.06%, closing at 9924.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.55%, closing at 3697.40 US dollars/ounce; COMEX silver fell 0.28%, closing at 42.04 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 96.97 [2] - Various precious metal - related varieties showed different price changes and trading volume trends on September 17, 2025, compared with the previous trading day [4][6] Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the less - dovish statement than expected by the market put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2] - Powell's view on inflation, labor market risks, and the nature of the rate cut affected market expectations. His characterization of the rate cut as "risk - management" was beneficial to silver [2] - The voting pattern in the meeting affected market expectations. The probability of the appointment of the new Fed Chairman will also affect future market expectations for rate cuts [3] Technical Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationship between precious metal prices (such as COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [8][11][12] - The near - far month structure charts of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and London silver are presented, reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [20][23][33] - Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationship with prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][43] - Statistics on the internal and external price differences of gold and silver are provided, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA, along with their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [51][52][54]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year and into the next two years [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, with a forecast of an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end and 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [1] - The Federal Reserve's approach is characterized as risk management, focusing on controlling employment market downturn risks [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Citic Securities expects further rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December, suggesting that the market may see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern in bond markets and a "catch-up" in stock markets [1] - CICC notes that while another rate cut is likely in October, the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation concerns [2] - Xiangcai Securities highlights that significantly revised employment data is a major driver for the recent rate cut, indicating a shift from economic slowdown to a more severe employment downturn [3]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【9月18日招商宏观研报：美联储降息25BP，未来不确定性加剧】当地时间9月17日，美联储召开议息 会议，降息25BP，联邦基金目标利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%，缩表节奏不变。本次会议延续8月 JacksonHole全球央行会议基调，认为就业下行风险大于通胀上行风险，鲍威尔将此次降息定调为"风险 管理式降息"。 从点阵图看，美联储内部分歧大，加剧未来不确定性。点阵图和SEP显示今年降息 75BP，明后年各降25BP，低于会前市场预计的今明两年各75BP。 高频数据和鲍威尔表态显示，美国只 是短暂放缓非衰退，本轮属"预防式"降息。年内75BP已足够对冲就业市场下行风险，明年一季度通胀 有上行风险，后续关注9-10月美国就业数据。 本次会议对明后年降息指引保守，SEP显示明后年各降 25BP，与6月相比无变化。 ...

备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 当地时间17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预 期。 这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联 储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 市场方面，在美联储宣布决定后，美国股市收盘涨跌互现。美元指数一度下跌0.4%，但在鲍威尔的新 闻发布会后，该指数抹去跌幅并上涨0.3%。 中金公司：预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但降息门槛将越来越高 中金公司表示，此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。往前看，由 于就业数据过于疲软，预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越 高，货币宽松空间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但 无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞胀"困境。 湘财证券：预计未来美联储降息可能会更加激进 中信证券：预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态，黄金仍有不错表现 中信证券表示，等到新任美联 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美联储2025年9月议息会议降息25bps，符合市场预期。鲍威 尔表示这是一次风险管理式降息，在双重使命中偏向控制就业市场下行风险。本次点阵图显示今年目标 利率中枢为3.6%，低于6月显示的3.9%，同时上调今年美国经济增速预测，维持今年美国通胀和失业率 预测不变。点阵图指引年内还有50bps降息符合预期，依旧预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分 别再次降息25bps。等到新任美联储主席的最终人选落地后，2026年利率路径才会更加清晰。 市场方面，降息落地后美债再现"买预期+卖事实"、美股"补涨"特征依旧，道指和小盘股表现较好。建 议相对淡化此次会议对明年利率路径的指引，预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态、预计黄金 仍有不错表现。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2025年9月美联储议息会议声明要点： 1)利率工具方面，委员会决定降息25bps，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调至4.00-4.25%，符合市场预 期。此次利率决议未得到一致同意，临时理事米兰投票支持降息50bps。 2)资产负债表方面，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美国国债每月赎回上限为50亿美元、机构债务和M ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on September 17, where it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The meeting continued the tone set at the August Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating that the risks of job market decline outweigh the risks of rising inflation [1] - The economic outlook was slightly downgraded, with a revision of the unemployment rate for the next two years, leading Powell to label the rate cut as a "risk management cut" based on weak non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The dot plot indicated significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, increasing future uncertainty [1] - The dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is notably lower than market expectations prior to the meeting [1] - Current high-frequency data and Powell's statements suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing a temporary slowdown rather than a recession, indicating that the current rate cut is more of a precautionary measure [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that a 75 basis point cut this year is sufficient to hedge against job market risks, while inflation may still pose an upward risk in the first quarter of next year [1] - After the anticipated cuts of 50-75 basis points, there may be a reversal in rate cut expectations, with a focus on changes in U.S. employment data in September and October [1] - The guidance for rate cuts in the following two years remains conservative, with the SEP showing a consistent 25 basis point cut compared to June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, marking the first rate cut in nine months since December of last year. This decision reflects a cautious approach to managing economic risks, balancing concerns over inflation and employment [1][2][9]. Interest Rate Decision - The FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with the Fed characterizing this as a "risk management" cut. The internal division among Fed members regarding future rate cuts was highlighted, with the dot plot indicating two more cuts within the year [5][10][9]. - The market had anticipated this rate cut, as evidenced by a 100% implied probability of a cut prior to the meeting [3][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar initially rose, while gold prices fell. The stock market showed mixed reactions, with the Dow Jones rising and the Nasdaq experiencing a slight pullback [6][7][21]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's economic projections were slightly adjusted, with a modest increase in growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, while the unemployment rate was slightly lowered. However, inflation expectations for 2026 were raised, indicating ongoing concerns about inflationary pressures [13][15]. - The current economic situation is characterized as not being in a recession, but rather showing signs of structural divergence, particularly in traditional manufacturing and real estate sectors, which may benefit from future rate cuts [16][20]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - The dot plot suggests the possibility of two more rate cuts this year, but there is significant internal disagreement among Fed members regarding the timing and extent of these cuts [10][9]. - The market is currently pricing in a high probability of further cuts, with futures indicating a likelihood of multiple rate reductions in the coming months [21][20]. Asset Market Implications - The transition from a "loose trading" environment to a "recovery trading" phase is anticipated, with various asset classes reflecting differing expectations for future rate cuts. For instance, interest rate futures are pricing in more cuts compared to the Fed's dot plot [21][28]. - The stock market outlook remains positive, with potential for further gains, particularly in technology and cyclical sectors, as the Fed's actions may stimulate demand and improve economic conditions [26][33]. International Market Considerations - The Chinese market is expected to benefit from liquidity improvements, with a focus on sectors that align with U.S. economic recovery, such as technology and consumer goods. However, domestic policy support will be crucial for sustaining this performance [33][34].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut of the year and the first in nine months [1] - This rate cut is more preventive in nature, aimed at addressing economic slowdown rather than a deep recession, which historically benefits risk assets more than recessionary rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Various Asset Classes - Historical data shows that during past rate cut cycles, various asset classes have reacted significantly, with equities, bonds, and commodities showing varied performance [2] - U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to be the biggest beneficiaries of the rate cut, with a nearly 100% success rate in price appreciation within six months of a rate cut [3] - The short-term interest rates are more sensitive to the Fed's policy changes, while long-term rates are influenced by inflation expectations and term premiums [6] Group 3: Stock Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market is likely to experience short-term downward pressure but long-term benefits as liquidity improves and corporate financing costs decrease [9] - Historical trends indicate that after preventive rate cuts, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have shown significant gains, with the S&P 500 rising by 15% and Nasdaq by 20% during the 2019 rate cut cycle [9] Group 4: A-Shares and H-Shares - A-shares are expected to benefit from liquidity easing and increased risk appetite, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [10] - H-shares are more sensitive to external liquidity conditions, with both preventive and recessionary rate cuts leading to overall price increases [12] Group 5: Gold and Commodities - Gold prices typically rise during rate cut cycles, with average increases of 10%-15% due to lower opportunity costs and increased demand amid geopolitical risks [16][15] - Oil prices are primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics, with limited correlation to rate cuts, although demand recovery can lead to price increases in a soft landing scenario [25] Group 6: Currency Impacts - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken in the short term following the rate cut, with historical declines of 6%-8% during preventive rate cuts [21] - The Chinese yuan may experience reduced depreciation pressure due to narrowed interest rate differentials, with expectations of appreciation following past rate cuts [28]

视频、设计丨王学权 王冰 当地时间9月17日，美股三大股指收盘涨跌不一。道琼斯工业指数涨0.57%，标普500指数跌0.1%，纳斯达克指数跌0.33%。 | 序号 名称 | | 现价 涨跌幅▼ | 成交量 | 换手率 市盈率 | | 成交额 60日涨幅年初至今 总市值 | | | 币种 总市值(人民币 总市值(美元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 迅雷 | 8.160 11.63% | 178万 | 2.80% | 0.7 | 992.59万 89.77% 310.05% 5.1亿 | | USD | 32亿 | 4.6亿 | | 2 | 百度集团 | 137.8311.34% | 1986万 | 6.84% | 12.4 | 18.93亿 63.64% 63.48% 474亿 | | USD | 3023亿 | 426亿 | | 3 | | 朴荷生物科 0.496 10.66% | 185万 | 6.18% | -0.8 | 56.49万 -98.35%-92.11% 0.1亿 | ...