| 国投期货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月15日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布11月PPI录得3%为7月以来新高，零售销售月率录得0.6%略高于预期，美联储多位官员讲话对短 期内降息持否定态度。伊朗局势处于高度紧张状态,尽管释放一定暂缓行动信号,但不确定性依然很强,消 息称联合国安理会将于15日应美国要求举行伊朗局势紧急会议。责金属整体维持多头思路，白银连续拉涨后 波动加剧。今日关注美国1月SPGI制造业PMI初值和周度初请失业金人数。 ★美联储——①卡什卡利：特朗普的威胁 ...

山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月15日16时39分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨0.02%，沪银主力收涨1.68%，铂金主力收跌4.11%，钯金主力收涨涨0.15%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，伊朗警告若 特朗普发动袭击将进行报复，美国从中东基地撤离人员，美联储主席鲍威尔因总部翻修案深陷刑事调查，特朗普政府正在讨论获取 格陵兰岛的方案，美国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国12月CPI涨幅符合预期，但家庭食品与房 租支出增加。美国12月就业增长几乎停滞，失业率下降缓解劳动力市场恶化担忧。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂 停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期美联储26年1 月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。 铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Hong Kong's primary residential property sales contracts registered reached 20,525, with a total value of HKD 225.55 billion, marking year-on-year increases of 21.7% and 8.2%, respectively, the highest level in six years since 2019 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The market is expected to maintain a transaction volume of around 20,000 units in 2026 [1] - Despite a temporary pressure on the Hong Kong property market due to the trade war at the beginning of the year, the market sentiment improved as the HSI returned to the 27,000-point mark following a decline in interbank rates and the Fed's resumption of interest rate cuts [1] - Developers accelerated their sales pace, achieving quarterly transaction volumes exceeding 5,000 units for three consecutive quarters, leading to an annual total returning to the 20,000-unit level for the first time in three years [1] Group 2: Quarterly Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the registration volume fell to 5,577 units, a decrease of 1.6% quarter-on-quarter, but the transaction value increased by 12% to HKD 68.43 billion [1]

Core Insights - The latest U.S. inflation data shows stable price pressures at the end of last year, with a key indicator falling below expectations, leading to increased speculation in financial markets about the Federal Reserve potentially initiating interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated [1][7]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase was 2.7%, also meeting forecasts [3]. - Food prices increased by 0.7% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with a notable decline in egg prices, which fell by 8.2% month-over-month [3]. - Energy prices saw a slight increase of 0.3% month-over-month [3]. - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, showed a more moderate trend, with the core CPI rising by only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year, both figures being 0.1 percentage points lower than analyst predictions [3][7]. Housing Costs Impact - Housing costs, which account for about one-third of the index weight, remain a significant driver of inflation, increasing by 0.4% month-over-month and maintaining a year-over-year increase of 3.2% [7]. - Following the stable report, traders adjusted their expectations for monetary policy, with the probability of the Federal Reserve deciding to cut rates in April rising to approximately 42%, up from about 38% prior to the data release [7]. Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current situation is not unprecedented, as inflation has not accelerated again, but the process of returning to target levels appears to be stalled [7]. - The report may not provide the Federal Reserve with sufficient confidence to take immediate action on rate cuts [7]. - Caution is advised in interpreting the data due to potential distortions from the government shutdown last year, which interrupted data collection [9]. - Future employment market and wage growth data will be critical factors influencing policymakers' decisions [9].

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and its implications for inflation and employment, highlighting a slow decline in inflation rates and the challenges faced in the job market [1][2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Trends - In December 2025, the U.S. CPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, marking the smallest growth since July of the previous year [1]. - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a consistent downward trend in inflation [1][2]. - The slowdown in inflation is attributed to zero growth in core goods prices, particularly in new and used vehicles, suggesting that the impact of tariffs is less severe than anticipated [2][3]. Group 2: Housing and Core Services - Core services prices increased by 0.3%, with housing costs rising by 0.4%, the largest increase in four months, indicating persistent housing inflation [2]. - The report from CoStar indicated a significant decline in U.S. rents, with a 0.31% decrease in October 2025, the largest drop in 15 years, driven by increased supply and reduced demand [2]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Impact - The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakness, with non-farm employment increasing by only 584,000 in 2025, significantly lower than the 2 million increase in 2024 [4]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.0% to 4.4%, with long-term unemployment increasing, indicating a challenging job market [4]. - Real average weekly earnings for American workers fell by 0.3% in December 2025, which, while controlling inflation, negatively impacts consumer spending and economic growth [4][5]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Despite potential negative impacts from tariffs, the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and government policies may support employment and income growth [5]. - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 is low unless there is significant deterioration in employment or inflation [5].

Economic Performance - In November 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations of 0.4%[6] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.5%, also above the expected 0.4%[5] - The consumer confidence index reached 54.0 in January 2026, up from 51.0 in October 2025 and 52.9 in November 2025, indicating improved consumer sentiment[23] Market Reactions - Following the release of retail data, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.09%, 0.53%, and 1.00% respectively[2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 3 basis points to 4.15%, while the 2-year yield fell by 2 basis points to 3.51%[2] Future Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is expected to decline to 1.1% from 4.3% in Q3, but a rebound to 2.1% is anticipated in Q1 2026 due to a low base effect[8] - Tax refunds in Q1 2026 are projected to total between $100 billion and $150 billion, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points[9] Interest Rate Projections - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve may first cut interest rates in June 2026, with a 47.0% probability of a 25 basis point reduction[26] - The likelihood of a government shutdown at the end of January 2026 is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event[10]

Economic Activity - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates a neutral to optimistic outlook, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting slight or moderate economic growth, compared to the previous report where economic activity showed little change [1] - The recovery from the government shutdown in late 2025 is evident, as 8 districts have achieved growth, suggesting a rebound in the U.S. economy [1] Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting no changes in hiring, which is considered good news given the previous downturn [3] - Non-farm employment in December was reported at 50,000, lower than the previous 56,000 and below the average of 100,000 prior to May 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the labor market [3] Inflation - Companies expect a slowdown in price increases, but prices are expected to remain high, which is a critical factor for the Fed's interest rate decisions [5] - Historical data suggests a higher probability of continued decline in inflation rather than an increase, with core CPI remaining at 2.6% in November and December 2025, compared to above 3% earlier in the year [5] Currency Impact - Following the Beige Book release, the dollar index closed with a bearish candlestick, indicating a short-term consolidation phase [5] - The neutral optimism reflected in the Beige Book suggests that the U.S. economy may not be as pessimistic as previously thought, potentially allowing for a continuation of the dollar's short to medium-term upward trend [5]

Macro News - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to a defensive stance among dollar bulls, while a mild decline in CPI data has increased expectations for future interest rate cuts [1] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military intervention in Venezuela, President Trump's threats of military action due to unrest in Iran, the White House's insistence on purchasing Greenland, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to support precious metals [1] - The Philadelphia Fed President Harker reiterated that if inflation continues to decline as expected and the labor market stabilizes, the Federal Reserve may further lower interest rates later this year [1] - The PPI and core PPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year in November, while market expectations were at 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver of PPI increases [1] - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% month-on-month in November, the fastest growth since July, driven by a rebound in auto sales and strong holiday shopping [1] Institutional Views - In the short term, challenges to monetary policy independence and escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened safe-haven demand and trading sentiment for precious metals, but potential profit-taking by investors at high levels may lead to price corrections [1] - In the medium term, weak U.S. manufacturing, the overarching trend of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the trend of de-dollarization are expected to pressure the dollar, supporting an increase in precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, reported a holding of 16,242.22 tons of silver as of January 14, a decrease of 78.94 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On January 14, the spot silver price closed at $93.18 per ounce, marking a 7.21% increase, with an intraday high of $93.47 and a low of $86.90 [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales for November, surpassing the expected 0.5%, indicating consumer resilience [2] - The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that the annualized total of existing home sales in December reached 4.35 million units, the highest level since February 2023, exceeding expectations of 4.22 million and the previous value of 4.13 million [2] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicated overall economic improvement across most regions, with stable employment levels and moderate price increases, although there is significant internal disagreement regarding future interest rate cuts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of China's first gold ETF with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan coincides with international gold prices surpassing $4,600 per ounce, indicating a significant milestone in the domestic gold investment landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Gold ETF Market Overview - As of January 14, the latest circulating scale of Huaan Gold ETF reached 100.762 billion yuan, making it the first gold ETF in China to surpass the 100 billion yuan mark and the largest in Asia [2][4]. - In the past year, Huaan Gold ETF has seen a net inflow of approximately 43 billion yuan, reflecting strong investor interest as gold prices continue to rise [4]. - The total market scale of 14 gold ETFs in China has reached 263.439 billion yuan, showcasing the growing popularity of gold as an investment vehicle [4]. Group 2: Innovations and Adjustments in Gold ETFs - The development of gold ETFs in China began in 2009, with Huaan Gold ETF being one of the first products launched in July 2013, aimed at enhancing liquidity and investment diversity [4]. - Several fund companies have adjusted their physical redemption prices and minimum redemption units to improve liquidity and risk management amid rising gold prices [6][8]. - For instance, E Fund announced a temporary suspension of its gold ETF's subscription due to adjustments in the physical gold contract arrangements, aiming to protect the interests of fund shareholders [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Multiple fund companies maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, citing factors such as the ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and a trend towards de-dollarization [10][11]. - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and challenges to the dollar's credit system, positioning gold as a potential new pricing anchor [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that the current low correlation between gold and other asset classes like stocks and bonds enhances gold's value in investment portfolios, particularly in the context of low domestic interest rates [12].