工业硅：逢高空配思路为主 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 06 月 17 日 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 7,370 | 25 | -105 | -1,120 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 507,279 | 136,909 | -32,715 | 124,643 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 323,363 | 219,674 | 145,700 | 176,838 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2507收盘价（元/吨） | 34,320 | 625 | 215 | - | | | | PS2507成交量（手） | 62,835 | -19,316 | -60,891 | - | | | | PS2507持仓量（手） | 51,277 | -5,586 ...

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/6/16 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,104 | +22↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1528393 | -26852↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 118,964 | -4912↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 3 | +1↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Bearish investment view, suggesting that investors can buy put options at high prices [3] - Soda Ash: Bearish investment view, recommending buying put options at high prices [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash remain weak, with prices reaching low levels and high price elasticity. The downstream terminal demand has entered the off - season, leading to weak supply and demand for glass. The continuous decline in raw fuel prices has weakened cost support, putting pressure on prices. The supply - demand surplus contradiction of soda ash has intensified again. After the end of maintenance, the resumption of production has accelerated, highlighting the pressure of supply surplus. Although the direct demand is okay, the downstream negative feedback pressure has increased significantly, and cost support has weakened, also putting pressure on prices [39] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: Bearish. This week, the daily output of national float glass was 155,700 tons, a 0.7% decrease from 5 days ago. The industry's start - up rate was 75.42%, a 0.25 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago, and the capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, a 0.66 - percentage - point decrease from 5 days ago. Two production lines were shut down and two were ignited this week, with no glass output from the ignited lines. Next week, one previously ignited line may start producing glass, and another line may be shut down, with overall output remaining stable [3] - Demand: Bearish. The demand outlook has weakened, the off - season has arrived, and demand has declined marginally. The pressure for stable growth is high, the mid - term real estate downturn is difficult to reverse, the year - on - year decline in completion data continues, and there are still concerns about future demand [3] - Inventory: Neutral. The inventory has slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [3] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis remained stable this week, and the 09 - 01 spread fluctuated [3] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price is at a relatively low level, but cost support has weakened [3] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [3] - Investment View: Bearish. Weak supply and demand are putting pressure on prices [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [3] Soda Ash - Supply: Bearish. Supply has increased. This week, the soda ash output was 740,100 tons, a 36,000 - ton (5.12%) increase from the previous week. Among them, the light soda ash output was 334,300 tons, a 12,400 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash output was 405,800 tons, a 23,600 - ton increase. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, with few maintenance enterprises. Previously maintained enterprises have gradually resumed production, and overall supply is expected to increase [4] - Demand: Bearish. Demand has remained stable. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries has been stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, with a sharp increase in negative feedback pressure [4] - Inventory: Bearish. The inventory has increased. The total manufacturer inventory is 1.6863 million tons, a 59,300 - ton (3.64%) increase from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory is 811,300 tons, a 21,300 - ton increase, and the heavy soda ash inventory is 875,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. The inventory shows an increasing trend, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis fluctuated this week, and the 09 - 01 spread remained stable [4] - Valuation: Neutral. The current price has moved down, but cost support has weakened. The cost of the combined soda process is about 1,200 yuan/ton, the ammonia - soda process is about 1,260 yuan/ton, and the natural soda process is about 1,000 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. Sino - US negotiations are continuing, and the pressure for domestic stable growth is high [4] - Investment View: Bearish. Supply has recovered, and the surplus pressure is gradually increasing [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy put options at high prices; Arbitrage: None [4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Price: This week, the price declined. The main contract closed at 976 (- 21), and the Shahe spot price was 1048 (- 8) [6] Soda Ash - Price: This week, the price fluctuated downward. The main contract closed at 1156 (- 56), and the Shahe spot price was 1220 (- 23) [11] Spread/Basis - Soda Ash: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] - Glass: The 09 - 01 spread and the basis fluctuated [22] 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Generally stable. Production has decreased. With the continuous decline in spot prices, glass production profits have decreased. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 182.83 yuan/ton, a 12.15 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week; that using coal - made gas was 80.72 yuan/ton, a 10.24 - yuan/ton decrease; and that using petroleum coke was - 128.47 yuan/ton, a 17.14 - yuan/ton decrease [26] - Demand: Weak. Downstream deep - processing orders are weak. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises are 10.4 days, a 0.5% increase from the previous period and a 7.2% decrease year - on - year. The mid - and back - end completion data of the real estate industry is poor. From January to April, the construction area was 6.20315 billion square meters, a 9.7% year - on - year decrease; the new construction area was 178.36 million square meters, a 23.8% decrease; and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a 16.9% decrease [27][28] - Inventory: Slightly decreased. The enterprise inventory is 69.685 million heavy cases, a 69,000 - heavy - case (0.10%) decrease from the previous period, and a 19.86% increase year - on - year. The inventory days are 30.8 days, a 0.5 - day decrease from the previous period [29] Soda Ash - Supply: Production is gradually recovering. Supply has increased. The profit of soda ash plants has decreased. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process is 20.70 yuan/ton, a 29.20 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous week. The theoretical profit of the combined soda process (double - ton) is 139.50 yuan/ton, a 38.50 - yuan/ton decrease [33] - Demand: The direct demand is okay, but the negative feedback pressure is high. The demand from float and photovoltaic industries is stable, but the terminal demand is not ideal, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand. The inventory has increased [36]

2025年06月15日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 2 | | 工业硅：上游继续复产，空配思路为主 | 11 | | 多晶硅：关注下周仓单注册信息，反弹后空配 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，产量回升，偏弱震荡，建议反套 | 20 | | 全国碳市场：CEA大幅反弹，CCER活跃度攀升 | 29 | | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策利好，带动油脂上行 | 33 | | 豆油：压榨恢复较好，国内油脂弱于国际 | 33 | | 豆粕：生柴政策利多美豆，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围偏多，偏强震荡 | 38 | | 玉米：高位震荡 | 44 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 50 | | 棉花：商业库存下降快支撑棉价 | 57 | | 生猪：降重路径改变，等待现货印证 | 64 | | 花生：震荡行情 | 70 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 1）中国精炼社会库存减少 92 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 ◆ 我们的观点：跟随原油偏强，淡季裂解收窄 ◆ 我们的逻辑：过去一周，BU跟随大幅上行，但在油品板块中涨势居弱。根据隆众资讯，本周期国内沥青均价为3697元/ 吨，环比上周期上涨35元/吨。周内中石化部分地区主营价格继续推涨，其中山东主营周内累计上涨80元/吨，华东主营 炼厂周内涨20元/吨，华南主营炼厂周内上涨20-80元/吨，但价格上涨后实际成交表现一般，近期高价有所承压；虽然 周内国际原油大幅上涨，但现货基本偏稳运行，下游多刚需采购，高价需求乏力。北方地区沥青现货资源有所支撑，考 虑部分炼厂库存低位以及限量等因素支撑，市场价格仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon maintains an oversupply pattern, with the disk still having a downward driving force, and it is recommended to short at high prices. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 6,800 - 7,300 yuan/ton next week [6][7]. - Polysilicon also follows the idea of shorting on rallies. The spot price is expected to continue falling after the SNEC meeting this week, and the disk is expected to be in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton next week [7]. - It is recommended to continue holding the PS2507/PS2508 inter - period reverse spread strategy and choose the opportunity to take profit by paying attention to the warehouse receipt registration situation. It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon and polysilicon factories adopt the selling hedging strategy [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from May 23, 2025, to June 13, 2025, are provided, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Factories in Southwest and Northwest regions are continuously resuming production, providing supply increments. Xinjiang factories have the feasibility of starting production after the electricity price cut, and there is an expectation of continued resumption to near - full operation. The entry of the Southwest region into the wet season also has a driving force for resumption [3]. - Inventory: This week, the social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,200 tons. The overall industry inventory decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 11,000 tons compared with last week [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output has a marginal increase in the short term. It is expected that the production schedule in June will be 105,000 tons, an increase compared with May. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has started to accumulate, and the upstream inventory pressure has increased [4]. - Demand: Terminal demand has declined, leading to an expectation of a downward adjustment in silicon wafer production schedules. After the "531" rush - installation ended, the demand declined, and the silicon wafer production schedules from May to June continued to show a monthly downward trend. The silicon wafer price has continued to fall, and the expected downward adjustment in production schedules has deepened [5]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Supply: This week, the weekly output of organic silicon decreased, and the subsequent resumption space of organic silicon enterprises is not large, and the marginal demand for industrial silicon has decreased [4]. - Demand: The terminal of organic silicon has not improved, and the consumption boost is limited [4]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Entering June - July, it is the off - season for aluminum alloy consumption, with overall rigid - demand orders, and the actual trading volume has not increased significantly [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive. The supply pressure is increasing as refineries have increased production recently, while the overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the strengthening of crude oil prices provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3501 - 3553 [8][10]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt is 2.398 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. The sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt this week is 32.2987%, a month - on - month increase of 3.655 percentage points. The sample enterprises' output is 539,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 738,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.40%. Refineries have increased production, raising supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rates of various types of asphalt, such as heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt, are generally lower than the historical average levels. Although the operating rate of waterproofing membranes has increased, the overall demand is still below the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 474.54 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.10%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 671.8557 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.19%. The asphalt processing loss has increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - **Inventory**: On June 12, the social inventory is 1.351 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%; the in - plant inventory is 797,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.08%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 390,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60.00%. Social and in - plant inventories are decreasing, while port inventory is increasing [11]. - **Basis**: On June 12, the spot price in Shandong is 3725 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 198 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - **Expected Outlook**: The refinery's recent production increase raises supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish during the peak season. The inventory is continuously decreasing. The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2509 contract oscillating between 3501 - 3553 [10]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20][21]. - **Spread Analysis**: - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, showing the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Cracking Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the profitability of asphalt production from crude oil [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC price ratio and asphalt - fuel oil price ratio from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationships among different products [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis The report shows the historical trends of the market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the price fluctuations in the spot market [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the profitability of asphalt production [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is related to the production choice between asphalt and coking products [42][43][44]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the market supply situation [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 are shown, which is an important part of the asphalt supply [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: The historical trends of the weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the overall supply capacity [50][51]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of the Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which are related to the raw material supply of asphalt production [54][56]. - **Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trends of refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the production situation of refineries [57][59]. - **Operating Rate**: The historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the production activity level [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trends of the maintenance loss estimation of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which affects the actual supply [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the market's deliverable inventory [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the inventory situation at different locations [71][72]. - **In - Plant Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The historical trends of the in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory management of refineries [74][75]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Export and Import Trends**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the international trade situation of asphalt [77][78]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Price Difference Trend**: The historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import price difference from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which affects the competitiveness of imported asphalt [80][81][82]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which is related to the demand for related products in the asphalt industry [83][84]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the overall market demand [86][87]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which is an important factor affecting asphalt demand [89][90]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which also affect asphalt demand [91]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2020 to 2025 are presented, reflecting the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [93][94][96]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 are presented, showing the production activity level of heavy - traffic asphalt [98][99]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the building asphalt operating rate and modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, reflecting the production situation of different types of asphalt [101][102]. - **Downstream Operating Situation**: The historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which are related to the demand for asphalt in different downstream industries [103][104][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to June 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively understand the market's supply - demand relationship [108][109].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given reports 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: High - altitude operation is recommended as geopolitical premiums are being squeezed out, and supply pressure is rising. Consider short - selling with a light position. SC should be monitored in the range of [485 - 500] [1][5] - **LPG**: The market is in consolidation. Sell call options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4100 - 4200] [1][7] - **L**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Upstream enterprises can sell - hedge when appropriate. L should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][11] - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Downstream enterprises can buy - hedge when appropriate. PP should be monitored in the range of [6900 - 7000] [1][13] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. The upward driving force is insufficient. Participate in the short - term. V should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [1][15] - **PX**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out long positions on pullbacks. PX should be monitored in the range of [6500 - 6620] [1][16] - **PTA**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. TA should be monitored in the range of [4590 - 4690] [1][19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. EG should be monitored in the range of [4220 - 4280] [1][21] - **Glass**: The price is expected to decline under pressure. FG should be monitored in the range of [960 - 990], and it will face resistance at the 1000 - level [2][26] - **Soda Ash**: The market remains weak. After a narrow - range shock, it will continue the bearish trend, suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. SA should be monitored in the range of [1140 - 1180] [2][29] - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving averages. SH should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2310] [2][32] - **Methanol**: Bearish consolidation. Consider laying out short positions at high levels. MA should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2290] [2][33] - **Urea**: The price is relatively weak, but the downside space is limited. Be cautious when short - selling. UR should be monitored in the range of [1620 - 1650] [2] - **Asphalt**: Bearish consolidation. The valuation is high, and the cost is falling. Try short - selling with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3475 - 3545] [2] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: EIA's latest monthly report shows that US crude oil production will decrease from 13.42 million barrels per day this year to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, while global crude oil production is expected to increase to 104.4 million barrels per day [5] - **Demand**: In May, China's crude oil imports were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. IEA maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 740,000 barrels per day and raises the demand growth in 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.246 million barrels to 108.8 million barrels [5] LPG - **Cost and Profit**: As of June 11, the PDH device profit was - 1016 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit was - 210.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: As of the week ending June 13, the total LPG commodity volume was 529,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8500 tons, and the civil LPG commodity volume was 228,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4100 tons [8] - **Demand**: As of the week ending June 13, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil were 64.30%, 59.70%, and 47.14% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.29pct, + 4.98pct, and - 0.40pct [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 13, refinery inventories were 169,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7200 tons, and port inventories were 2.928 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,400 tons [8] L - **Supply**: This week's production increased by 3% month - on - month, and with many downstream device restart plans, production is expected to continue to increase [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventories have started to accumulate, and in the off - season of agricultural film demand, downstream restocking motivation is insufficient, with a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [11] PP - **Supply**: Weekly production has increased, but with more short - term maintenance devices next week, production is expected to decline. There is high pressure from new device production in June - July, and supply is abundant [13] - **Demand**: It is the domestic off - season, export margins are low, and overseas market transactions are weak, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand [13] - **Inventory**: There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [13] PVC - **Supply**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend. A 300,000 - ton new device of Shaanxi Jintai was put into operation at the beginning of the month, and more device maintenance is expected next week, with a possible further reduction in supply [15] - **Demand**: Southern demand has declined marginally due to the rainy season, but weekly export orders have remained above 20,000 tons. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand [15] PX - **Supply**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased, leading to increased supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 83.4% (+ 4.8pct), and the weekly output is 700,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons) [17] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and there are production plans in June, with improved demand expectations [17] - **Inventory**: In April, PX inventories decreased to 4.2503 million tons (- 427,700 tons), which is lower than the same period last year but still at a high level in the past five years [17] PTA - **Supply**: PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 79.0% (+ 1.4pct), and the weekly output is 1.371 million tons (+ 23,000 tons) [19] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise, and terminal weaving orders have decreased [19] - **Inventory**: PTA social inventories have continued to decline. The available days of social inventories are 12.3 days (- 0.3 days), and the social inventory in April was 4.25 million tons (- 554,000 tons) [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Supply**: There has been an increase in device maintenance, and the arrival volume is low, alleviating supply pressure. The weekly maintenance loss is 290,000 tons (+ 5000 tons), and the daily output is 47,200 tons (+ 1000 tons) [22] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise [22] - **Inventory**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend, and port inventories are low compared to the same period [22] Glass - **Macro Environment**: The decline in China's PPI has widened, and the deflation pattern in industrial products has not been alleviated. The construction PMI has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 51, and the mid - term demand for glass is shrinking [26] - **Supply**: In the short - term rainy season and high - temperature period, coal - fired production lines still have profits, making it difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. Supply - side start - up and daily melting volume are fluctuating at a low level [26] - **Demand**: Upstream inventories have started to increase, mid - stream trader inventories are being de - stocked, and downstream deep - processing orders are lower than the same period. Spot market quotes have generally been lowered [26] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Alkali plant maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and new production capacity is being put into production, increasing market supply pressure [29] - **Demand**: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased, and the photovoltaic installation boom has subsided, resulting in insufficient rigid demand support for soda ash [29] - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods [29] Caustic Soda - **Supply**: There has been a lot of device maintenance in the caustic soda market recently, but the maintenance scale in June is smaller than last month, and there is still pressure from new production. Supply is expected to gradually recover in the middle and later part of the month [32] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated. The production of downstream alumina in Shandong supports prices, but non - aluminum markets are观望. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices, and overall demand support for prices is limited [32] - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda sample enterprise factory inventories are 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.3% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: The profit of coal - made methanol is relatively good, and the device operating load remains high. The expected arrival of Iranian methanol has been gradually realized, and non - Iranian supplies have increased, increasing supply pressure [2] - **Demand**: The operating load of MTO devices has continued to recover, but with poor profits, the space for further load increase is limited. Traditional demand is in a seasonal off - season [2] - **Inventory**: Inventories are accumulating, and the arbitrage window between coastal and inland methanol remains closed, with inland enterprise inventories increasing [2] Urea - **Supply**: Daily production remains at a high level, and supply pressure is relatively large [2] - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for domestic agricultural urea consumption. After the end of the southern rainy season, the demand for top - dressing corn and fertilizing rice in the north is expected to be realized, and industrial demand is neutral. Fertilizer exports have grown rapidly this year [2] - **Cost**: The overall cost is weak, but there is still bottom - end support [2] Asphalt - **Supply**: Supply has increased, and inventories have accumulated [2] - **Demand**: There is rigid demand in the north, but demand in the south is expected to decline due to the rainy season, showing a "strong north, weak south" pattern [2]

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