Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PX and short on SC. Short - term rebound is expected, but there is pressure in the medium - term. With low processing fees, overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. In May, it will continue to be in the de - stocking phase. In June, new devices are expected to be put into operation, and it is advisable to take long positions in the PX calendar spread when it is low [4]. - **PTA**: Short - term rebound is expected, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. After factory maintenance, PTA spot supply and demand are tight, and the basis and calendar spread have risen significantly. However, it is not recommended to chase the high basis and calendar spread, and it is advisable to gradually take profits before the holiday [4]. - **MEG**: Adopt a strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG. Do not chase the high calendar spread. With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic supply will be sufficient, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Changes**: On April 25, 2025, compared with the previous day, PX, PTA, PF, and SC prices increased by 1.0%, 0.7%, 0.3%, and 0.9% respectively, while MEG decreased by 0.5% [1]. - **Calendar Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the calendar spreads of PX (5 - 9), PTA (5 - 9), MEG (5 - 9), PF(5 - 6), and PX - EB05 on April 25, 2025, were 60, 48, 6, 2, and 176 respectively [1]. - **Inter - variety Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the spreads of PTA05 - 0.65PX05, PTA05 - MEG05, PTA05 - PF05, PF05 processing margin, and PTA05 - LU05 on April 25, 2025, were - 3, 91, 58, - 42, and - 5 respectively [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The daily changes in the basis of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and the PX - naphtha spread on April 25, 2025, were - 0, 68, - 6, - 28, and 8 respectively [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Changes**: On April 25, 2025, the PTA warehouse receipts decreased by 10,072 compared with the previous day, and the short - fiber warehouse receipts decreased by 86 [1]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Contract Pre - collection**: The May PX contract pre - collection of a major domestic supplier is 6600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis, and the PTA contract pre - collection is 4600 yuan/ton on an acceptance basis [3]. - **Device Maintenance**: A 225 - million - ton PTA device in the Northeast has stopped as planned, with an expected maintenance period of about 6 weeks. A 30 - million - ton IPA device in East China has stopped for maintenance, with an expected duration of about 1 month [3]. - **Market Transactions**: On April 27, PTA futures were closed. Driven by polyester sales, the PTA spot negotiation atmosphere was fair. The May basis jumped, and some suppliers stopped offering. MEG futures were also closed, and market negotiation was scarce. The average sales rate of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 70%, and the average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 70% [3][4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **PX**: Overseas device maintenance is increasing, and the Asian PX operating rate has dropped to 68.6%. Domestic devices such as Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX have restarted, and some domestic devices have maintenance plans. In May, it will be in the de - stocking phase, and new devices are expected to be put into operation in June [4]. - **PTA**: Terminal demand expectations have improved, polyester sales have improved, and inventory pressure has eased. Factory maintenance is concentrated, and PTA spot supply and demand are tight. The basis and calendar spread have risen significantly, but it is not recommended to chase the high [4]. - **MEG**: With the exemption of ethane tariffs, domestic device operating rates may rise, and domestic supply will be sufficient. Import volume is high from April to May, and it is difficult to reduce port inventory. Short - term attention should be paid to short positions in the calendar spread when it is high [5].

期货研究报告|玻璃纯碱周报 2025-04-27 供应预期下降，纯碱大幅上涨 研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 010-64405663 wanghaitao@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3057899 投资咨询号：Z0016256 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 玻璃方面，本周玻璃主力合约 2509 宽幅震荡，收盘价为 1121 元/吨，环比下跌 1 元/ 吨，跌幅 0.09%。现货方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，国内浮法玻璃市场周均价 1279 元/ 吨，环比上涨 3.88 元/吨。供应方面，本周浮法玻璃产量 110.58 万吨，环比减少 0.32%， 企业开工率75.85%，环比增加0.19%，产能利用率78.78%，环比减少0.25%。库存方面， 本周全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存 6547.33 万重箱，环比增加 0.61%，本周部分地区企 业为促进出货企业价格小幅提涨，下游刚需补货。整体来看，下游地产和深加工需求 恢复 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 4 月 27 日 焦煤焦炭：供需边际好转，宽幅价格 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 上周焦煤焦炭呈现宽幅震荡格局。 空头：1、限产消息再度来袭，倘若按修正后的粗钢产量线性外推，今年减量将维持在 5000 万吨水平，利空 炉料。 多头：1、本周铁水产量上行斜率修复，环比增至 244 万吨，煤焦刚需存在韧性支撑，且从近期蒙煤通关数 据来看受环保、抽检等趋严因素的扰动，监管区散煤不让露天装卸及堆放，导致数据整体回落较为明显，退 运情绪使得进口效率降低，后续仍需观察。 经历前期深跌后，市场情绪有所修复，盘面集中体现为空单回补，且由于国内重要会议召开以及五一假期临 近，宏观预期以及产业补库逻辑的修复或带动价格企稳运行，但考虑到煤焦基本面自身偏宽松的矛盾仍有 待解决，随着情绪计价结束，价格或重新回归供需定价逻辑，建议投资者追涨谨慎。首先，随着近期高炉铁 水产量的上行，下游焦钢企业对原料的补库积极性仍有一定韧性支撑，库存结构向好发展，具体体现为煤矿 出货顺畅延续去化，下游增加采购开始主动补库，但受限于终端需求消化 ...

节前震荡为主 姓名：朱少楠 从业资格编号：F3042921 投资咨询证号：Z0015327 2025年4月25日 期货投资咨询业务批准文号：证监许可[2011]1446号 01 周度观点 02 周度重点 03 相关数据图表 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度观点 周度观点 ➢ 上周主要观点：3月的经济数据超市场预期，实际GDP同比增长5.4%，一线城市地产价格企稳回升，地产销售基本持平，新开工降幅收窄至- 18.7%，狭义基建投资增速同比回升至5.8%。本期钢联的数据也不错，螺纹表需继续回升，热卷环比也有所增加。价格延续弱势，主要还是对 需求的持续性和接下来出口端的担忧，再加上原材料尤其焦煤不断创新低，成本给予的支撑也不够。短期价格再靠近上周低点，市场情绪不佳， 但也没用新的利空，现货也相对抗跌，基差走强，预计震荡为主。 ➢ 本周走势分析：本周盘面止跌反弹，虽然关税对未来需求的影响还会继续，且面临不确定性，但很难再超预期，本周也释放了一些缓和的信号。 ➢ 本周主要观点：基本面上看，钢联数据低于市场预期，尤其螺纹需求，但钢谷的数据不错且螺纹低库存且不断去库下，部分地区已经出现缺规 格现象，热卷的需求还是有一定韧 ...

2025 年 04 月 25 日 短纤：中期趋势偏弱，逢高试空 瓶片：中期趋势偏弱，逢高试空 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2505 | 5968 | 6012 | -44 | PF05-06 | -60 | -80 | 20 | | PF | 短纤2506 | 6028 | 6092 | -64 | PF06-07 | 18 | 128 | -110 | | | 短纤2507 | 6010 | 5964 | 46 | PF基差 | 252 | 208 | 44 | | | 短纤持仓量 | 294135 | 300629 | -6494 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 280 | 6. 300 | -20 | | | 短纤成交量 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating short - term balance and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Pulp: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Sugar: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Apple: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Timber: One star, indicating a driving force for price movement but poor operability [1] - Natural Rubber: White star, indicating short - term balance and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see [1] - 20 - number Rubber: Three stars, representing a clear short - term trend and appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Butadiene Rubber: One star, indicating a driving force for price movement but poor operability [1] Core Views - The markets of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international trade policies, and weather conditions. Different commodities have different trends and investment suggestions, mainly including waiting and seeing, holding short - term positions, and maintaining a bearish view [2][3][4][6][7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with stable domestic cotton spot trading and firm basis. Cotton yarn spinning enterprises sold in small orders, and prices were stable to weak. China imported 7.37 million tons of cotton in March, a year - on - year decrease of 32.33 million tons. Clothing sales data showed good domestic demand but large external demand challenges. The focus is on Sino - US trade relations. Trump's statement on tariff cuts may drive prices. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - US sugar fluctuated overnight. Brazil's 25/26 sugar - cane crushing season has started. Due to less rainfall in the first quarter, the yield per unit may decline, but the high sugar - alcohol price ratio may keep the sugar - making ratio high, so sugar production is uncertain. Falling oil prices are negative for US sugar. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar is strong, with the market focusing on consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales are good, and imports have decreased, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. With the approaching of May Day, purchasing enthusiasm was high, and prices in some areas increased. The flower buds this year are large, and the impact of the low - temperature on April 12 is not significant, but the risk of poor fruit - setting exists. The market is focused on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU fluctuated, NR fell, and BR fell slightly. Domestic natural rubber prices continued to fall, butadiene rubber prices rose slightly, and butadiene import prices fell. Global natural rubber supply is increasing, and some domestic butadiene rubber plants' operating rates have changed. Domestic tire operating rates declined, and inventory increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased slightly, and butadiene social inventory decreased while upstream inventory increased. With the approaching of May Day, demand is weakening, supply is increasing, and inventory is falling. It is recommended to wait and see for RU&NR, expect a rebound for BR, and hold cross - variety arbitrage [6] Pulp - Pulp futures prices fell slightly. Spot prices were stable in some areas and fell in others. As of April 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China was 2.106 billion tons, a 1.8% month - on - month increase. Import inventory is high, and downstream procurement is cautious. The short - term trend is affected by macro factors. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - Futures prices were weak, and spot prices were stable. New Zealand's log shipments are entering the off - season, but the impact on arrival volume will take time. Downstream demand is good recently but the peak season is ending. Inventory pressure still exists. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view [8]

商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-04-23 | 6224 | 4408 | 4250 | 6092 | 3507 | | 2025-04-22 | 6050 | 4306 | 4180 | 5982 | 3456 | | 2025-04-21 | 6110 | 4350 | 4205 | 6010 | 3419 | | 2025-04-18 | 6094 | 4330 | 4128 | 5960 | 3445 | | 2025-04-17 | 6034 | 4294 | 4113 | 5946 | 3441 | | 日度变化 | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | | 月 差 | P X（ 5 - 9） | P T A（ 5 - 9） | M E G（ 5 - 9） | PF(5-6) | PX-EB05 | | 2025-04 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - Urea demand will increase periodically, and the futures price shows signs of a rebound, but the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the resistance level of 1,830 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures main contract opened high and closed low, and the rebound was not smooth. The spot market price fluctuated slightly. Although the futures showed signs of a rebound in the past two days, the market demand did not provide kinetic energy support. The daily output of urea fluctuated slightly, and it was expected to continue to rise this week. The downstream purchasing power was insufficient, and the market trading sentiment was not stimulated by the futures. Agricultural demand was expected to see bargain - hunting purchases next month. The demand for urea from compound fertilizer factories was limited, and the price in the Northeast region had limited room for a significant increase under supply pressure. The inventory accumulation was large this period, indicating poor downstream demand transmission [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,789 yuan/ton, opened high and closed low, and closed slightly lower at 1,762 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.56%. The daily trading volume decreased, and the open interest was 212,129 lots (+15,474 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions increased by 8,487 lots, and short positions increased by 17,260 lots. On April 23, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 4,163, a decrease of 97 compared with the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot market price fluctuated slightly. The mainstream ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,770 to 1,810 yuan/ton. The price of small - particle urea in Shanxi was 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton, and the quote of large - particle urea was 1,720 - 1,750 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes were stable today, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 78 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - On April 23, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,600 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons compared with yesterday, and the operating rate was 85.57% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of April 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.065 million tons, an increase of 158,800 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 17.52%. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.12 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21% [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term decline. With limited further positive impact from China - US trade tariff events, upcoming US soybean planting, and China's concentrated soybean imports starting in April, it has a short - term bearish outlook. Caution is advised for bullish and chasing - up operations before the holiday [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term rebound, but overall bearish. High domestic rapeseed meal inventory, new - season rapeseed harvest in May, and an enlarged soybean - rapeseed meal price difference lead to reduced substitution. It is under pressure in the short term, and chasing - up should be cautious [1][4][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term consolidation. International palm oil supply is recovering, and its price center may shift downward. Domestic palm oil has low inventory and no supply - side pressure for now. Caution is needed for bullish and chasing - up operations, and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered. Attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil prices, and Malaysia's April palm oil export data [1][8][9]. - **Cotton**: Range - bound oscillation. US cotton planting is ongoing with improved soil moisture, and there is a temporary buffer in the tariff war. In China, new cotton planting is over half - done, and the market has a supply - demand imbalance. After the release of short - term negative factors, the price is expected to oscillate within a range [1][10][13]. - **Red Dates**: Weak operation. The focus is on planting, with sufficient supply and weak demand due to the arrival of fresh fruits. It is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation, and attention should be paid to the new production season [1][14][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Be vigilant against corrections. The supply pressure will continue to dominate the market in the second half of 2025. The narrowing of the standard - fat price difference reflects weak fat - pig demand, and there is a risk of price suppression from the release of heavy - weight pigs. Be cautious about the post - holiday market correction [1][16][18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Situation**: The main contract closed at 3054 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3671.43 yuan/ton, up 2.96%. The national average soybean crushing profit was 412.4603 yuan/ton, up 98.59 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the impact of China - US trade tariffs is limited, and US soybean planting is about to start. Domestically, from April to June, the monthly average import is over 10 million tons. As of April 18, port and oil - mill soybean inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, while soybean meal inventory is decreasing [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Situation**: The main contract closed at 2658 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2612.63 yuan/ton, up 0.73%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 715.746 yuan/ton, an increase of 44.82 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic rapeseed meal inventory is much higher than in the past two years, and new - season rapeseed will be harvested in May. The soybean - rapeseed meal price difference has expanded to over 600 yuan/ton, reducing the substitution of rapeseed meal [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Market Situation**: The main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous day. The national average price was 9013 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The national daily trading volume was 200 units, down 64.29% [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In April, international palm oil supply and demand both increased. Indonesia's March exports decreased slightly, while Malaysia's April 1 - 20 production increased by 9.11% and exports increased by 3.64%. The probability of inventory accumulation is high [8][9]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous day. The domestic spot average price was 14215 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The cotton commercial inventory was 420.02 tons, down 11 tons [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the US, the cotton planting rate was 11% as of April 20. In China, the intended cotton planting area in 2025 is 43.763 million mu, up 1.5%. The spring peak season is ending, and textile orders and开机 rates are declining [11][12]. Red Dates - **Market Situation**: The main contract CJ2509 closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 3.23% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 10521 tons, down 134 tons from the previous week [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Xinjiang's jujube trees are gradually sprouting. The supply in the downstream market is sufficient, and the demand is weakening due to the arrival of fresh fruits [15]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14485 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14940 yuan/ton, down 0.40%. The national sample enterprise pig inventory was 36.891 million heads, up 0.36% [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure in April - June is incrementally limited, but it will increase in the third quarter. The market is still facing supply - demand imbalance, and there is a risk of price correction after the holiday [17][18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current methanol market shows a certain divergence between the inland and port regions. The inland spot is relatively strong due to factors such as spring maintenance, while the port is relatively weak due to the expected recovery of imports, resulting in a relatively weak performance of methanol futures. There is no obvious driving force for methanol from both the supply and demand sides. The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term (View score: 1) [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices (Closing Prices)**: MA01 decreased from 2342 yuan/ton to 2326 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton (-0.68%); MA05 decreased from 2353 yuan/ton to 2335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (-0.76%); MA09 decreased from 2275 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton (-0.66%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices (Daily Averages)**: Prices in Shandong, Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, while prices in Hubei decreased from 2465 yuan/ton to 2415 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton (-2.03%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA increased from 63 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Ordos Q5500 decreased from 470 yuan/ton to 462.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.60%); the price of Datong Q5500 decreased from 540 yuan/ton to 532.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton (-1.39%); the price of Yulin Q6000 decreased from 535 yuan/ton to 530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton (-0.93%) [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in the Northwest MTO increased from 623 yuan/ton to 633 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton (1.61%); the profit of natural gas - to - methanol increased from - 410 yuan/ton to - 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton (14.63%) [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profit**: The profit of East China MTO increased from - 749.57 yuan/ton to - 734.07 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton (2.07%); the profit of acetic acid increased from 573.93 yuan/ton to 584.93 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton (1.92%); the profit of MTBE decreased from 187.84 yuan/ton to 134.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.76 yuan/ton (-28.62%); the profit of formaldehyde decreased from - 268.80 yuan/ton to - 273.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8 yuan/ton (-1.79%); the profit of diethylene glycol decreased from 366 yuan/ton to 352 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton (-3.83%) [1] 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: The main methanol contract MA2509 oscillated within a range, opening at 2269 yuan/ton, closing at 2260 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 487391 lots and an open interest of 665951, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1] - **Foreign Information**: The reference negotiation price of non - Iranian methanol cargoes arriving in the far - future is 258 - 268 US dollars/ton, and the reference negotiation price of non - Iranian cargoes arriving in the far - future is +1 - 1.5%. For other regions in the Middle East, the reference negotiation price of a small number of far - future arriving cargoes from other Middle Eastern regions is +0.4 - 0.6%. Attention should be paid to the logistics situation in a certain Middle Eastern country recently [1] 3.4. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day saw the MA contract oscillating within a range, with the 09 night session closing at 2258. The Trump administration released a signal of tariff relaxation with China, improving market risk appetite, leading to a rise in US stocks, a fall in gold, and a rise in crude oil, which had a certain boost to the prices of methanol and other energy - chemical products. The strategy suggestion is to wait and see in the short - term [1]