Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless - steel markets are facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with poor inventory reduction, and are under oscillatory pressure [9]. - For nickel, macro - factors include the US retail sales growth and potential EU - US trade war. Fundamentally, supply costs are rising, and some non - integrated smelters are reducing production due to profit losses. Demand from the stainless - steel and battery sectors is weak, and inventories are rising [9]. - For stainless steel, although the cost of raw materials is decreasing, steel mills are increasing production cuts due to losses. Demand is weak in the traditional off - season, and inventory reduction is not ideal [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Nickel**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly decline of 0.73% and an amplitude of 2.38%. The closing price was 120,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or short lightly on rallies [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: This week, stainless steel oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of 0.12% and an amplitude of 1.42%. The closing price was 12,725 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price**: As of July 18, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) was 900 yuan/nickel, unchanged from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel was 120,500 yuan/ton, down 890 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 12,725 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from last week [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 18, the electrolytic nickel spot price was 121,500 yuan/ton, with a basis of 1,000 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel basis was 600 yuan/ton [19]. - **Price Ratio**: As of July 18, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel was 9.47, down 0.08 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to nickel was 2.2 yuan/ton, up 0.02 from last week [23]. - **Net Long Positions**: As of July 18, the net long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel decreased by 6,436 lots compared to July 14, and the net long positions of the top 20 in stainless steel increased by 5,070 lots [31]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Supply Side** - **Nickel Ore**: As of July 11, the nickel ore inventory at major ports was 896,490 wet tons, up 2.83% from last week [34]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: In April 2025, the electrolytic nickel output was 36,450 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.46%. In May 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,687.576 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.65%, and the cumulative import from January to May was 78,738.983 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.39% [39]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the LME nickel inventory was 21,560 tons, up 1,118 tons from last week; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 25,277 tons, up 230 tons from last week [41][44]. - **Demand Side** - **Stainless Steel Production**: In June 2025, the total output of stainless crude steel was 329.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95%. Among them, the output of 400 - series was 558,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.48%; the output of 300 - series was 1.744 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.28%; the output of 200 - series was 989,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% [48]. - **Stainless Steel Trade**: In May 2025, the stainless - steel import volume was 122,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,000 tons; the export volume was 360,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,100 tons [48]. - **Regional Inventory**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel inventory in Foshan was 320,410 tons, down 20,449 tons from last week; the inventory in Wuxi was 595,917 tons, up 6,112 tons from last week [52]. - **Stainless Steel Profit**: As of July 18, the stainless - steel production profit was - 8 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from last week [56]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Real Estate**: From January to June 2025, the new housing construction area was 303.6432 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the housing completion area was 225.6661 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.8% [60]. - **Home Appliances**: In June 2025, the air - conditioner output was 28.3831 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.18%; the refrigerator output was 9.0474 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; the washing - machine output was 9.5079 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.57%; the freezer output was 2.4139 million units, a year - on - year increase of 18.82% [60]. - **Automotive**: In June 2025, the output of new - energy vehicles was 2.794 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.7%; the sales volume was 2.904 million, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% [64]. - **Machinery**: In June 2025, the excavator output was 26,810 units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; the output of large and medium - sized tractors was 21,662 units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%; the output of small tractors was 10,000 units, unchanged year - on - year [64].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the Shanghai tin market has experienced a wide - range adjustment. Macro factors show that the US retail sales in June increased more than expected, while the EU is preparing for a potential escalation of the trade war. On the fundamental side, although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. The smelting end faces raw material shortages and cost pressures, and the demand end is in a seasonal off - peak period. The tin price has been fluctuating widely recently, and downstream procurement is mainly at low prices. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin rebounded after a decline this week, with a weekly increase of 0.23% and an amplitude of 3.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 264,540 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The EU is drafting a tariff list for US services. Fundamentally, the actual ore output in Myanmar will start in the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine is resuming production. The smelting end has problems such as raw material shortages and cost pressures. The demand end is in an off - peak season. The tin price has been fluctuating widely, and downstream procurement is cautious. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, while the LME de - stocking has slowed down. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position, and attention should be paid to the pressure of MA10 [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range of 260,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of July 18, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 264,540 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan/ton or 0.31% from July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the closing price of LME tin was 33,070 US dollars/ton, down 380 US dollars/ton or 1.14% from July 11. The spot premium remained stable [8][9]. - **Ratio Change**: As of July 18, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.19, the same as on July 11. As of July 17, 2025, the Shanghai - London tin ratio was 7.92, down 0.06 from July 10 [16]. - **Position Change**: As of July 18, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 126 lots, a decrease of 1186 lots from July 14. The trading volume of Shanghai tin was 49,232 lots, a decrease of 596 lots or 1.2% from July 11 [17][18]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side** - **Ore Import and Production**: In May 2025, the monthly import of tin ore and concentrates was 13,448.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.4% and a year - on - year increase of 60.66%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 50,220.48 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.41%. In April 2025, the refined tin output was - 0.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. From January to April, the cumulative output was 5.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7% [23][24]. - **Processing Fee**: On July 18, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, the same as on July 11. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, also the same as on July 11. The average price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.47%, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton or 0.46% [27]. - **Import Window**: As of July 18, 2025, the tin import profit and loss was - 14.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,887.01 yuan/ton from July 11. In May 2025, the refined tin import volume was 2,076.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 84.07% and a year - on - year increase of 226.14%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 10,869.42 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 27.52%. In May 2025, the refined tin export volume was 1,769.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 18.01%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,739.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 39.71% [31][32]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the LME tin total inventory was 1,935 tons, a decrease of 35 tons or 1.78% from July 11. The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory was 7,148 tons, an increase of 51 tons or 0.72% from last week. The tin inventory for futures was 6,817 tons, an increase of 186 tons or 2.81% from July 11 [37]. - **Demand Side** - **Semiconductor Index**: On July 17, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 5,737.64, an increase of 29.37 or 0.51% from July 10. From January to June 2025, the integrated circuit output was 23,946,961,100 pieces, an increase of 3,236,412,000 pieces or 15.63% compared with the same period last year [42][43]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of May 2025, the tin - plated sheet output was 100,000 tons, the same as in April. The export volume was 173,578.75 tons, an increase of 27,066.23 tons or 18.47% from April [48].

Group 1: Conflict Trigger - The conflict was triggered by Canada's unilateral imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, particularly a 100% tariff on electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum, effective October 1, 2024 [2][4] - Canada's actions were framed as a response to similar measures by the US and EU, but lacked substantial evidence and appeared hasty compared to the thorough investigations conducted by the US and EU [4][6] Group 2: China's Response - In response to Canada's tariffs, China initiated an anti-discrimination investigation against Canada on September 26, 2024, marking a significant move in international trade disputes [8][10] - China also launched an anti-dumping investigation on Canadian canola on September 9, 2024, targeting a key export commodity worth over 3 billion Canadian dollars in 2023 [10][12] Group 3: Historical Context - Diplomatic relations between China and Canada began in 1970, with a mutually beneficial trade relationship that peaked in the 2010s, where bilateral trade reached hundreds of billions of Canadian dollars [14][16] - The relationship soured significantly after the 2018 Meng Wanzhou incident, leading to a series of retaliatory measures and a decline in trust between the two nations [16] Group 4: International Implications - The dispute has broader international implications, with China's anti-discrimination investigation potentially setting a precedent for future trade conflicts, while Canada faces criticism for its unfounded tariff measures [17][19] - Canada has expressed strong condemnation of China's actions and plans to support affected industries, but the scale of assistance is limited, and there are calls for government compromise from the agricultural community [20] Group 5: Conclusion - The trade war illustrates the complexities of global trade dynamics and the lack of true winners, as both countries face economic repercussions and strained relations [21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Precious Metals Data Daily [4] - Date: July 18, 2025 [5] - Research Institution: ITC Guomao Futures [3] - Analyst: Baishuna from the Macroeconomic and Financial Research Center [5] Group 2: Market Data Price and Price Changes - On July 17, 2025, London Gold Spot was at $3334.99/ounce (-0.1% from the previous day), London Silver Spot at $37.88/ounce (0.0% change), COMEX Gold at $3340.80/ounce (-0.2% change), and COMEX Silver at $38.11/ounce (-0.2% change). Shanghai gold and silver futures and spot also had corresponding price changes [5]. - The price differences and ratios between different gold and silver varieties also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -2.24 yuan/gram on July 17, with a 14.3% change from the previous day [5]. Positions and Inventories - As of July 16, 2025, the non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver had different degrees of change compared to the previous day. Gold ETF - SPDR was at 950.79 tons (0.33% change), and Silver ETF - SLV was at 14819.28626 tons (-0.25% change) [5]. - On July 17, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28872.00 kg (0.00% change from the previous day), and SHFE silver inventory was 1217085.00 kg (0.35% change). COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight increases [5]. Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Other Market Indicators - On July 17, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.15 (-0.09% change). The US dollar index was 98.29 (-0.35% change), and US Treasury yields and other indicators also changed [5]. Group 3: Core Views Short - term Logic - The decrease in the number of initial jobless claims in the US and strong retail sales data weakened the short - term downward risk of the US economy, which put pressure on precious metal prices. However, due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, precious metal prices were also supported. It is expected that gold prices will continue to fluctuate. For silver, although the market risk preference is still high, the silver price may gradually strengthen, and the gold - silver ratio may start to rise [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - Against the background of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, the intensification of great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold has not changed. It is recommended to continue to allocate long positions on dips [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on the 12th that starting from August 1, a 30% tariff would be imposed on EU imported goods. The EU Commission stated on the 14th that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imported products worth about $84 billion and has formulated a counter - measure list [5]. - Trump said he did not plan to remove Fed Chairman Powell from office. Fed official Williams said that the initial impact of tariffs on commodity prices was starting to be seen, and the impact on inflation was expected to intensify in the coming months [5]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000, a new low since the week ending April 12, 2025. The number of continued jobless claims for the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million, lower than expected [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, caustic soda is in the off - season for demand, with insufficient price increase momentum, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for peak - season demand in the future, so it is advisable to participate in the 10 - 1 positive spread of the monthly difference [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2484, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 840, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2625, and the basis is 141 [1] Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. The high - price sales of low - concentration caustic soda have slowed down, and the sales performance of each factory varies, with inventory increasing or decreasing [2] Market Condition Analysis - Macroeconomically, in the short term, the overall sentiment of domestic commodities is strong due to the anti - involution effect, while externally, attention should be paid to the risk that the trade war in August may exceed expectations. In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, caustic soda is currently in a volatile market [3] - From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The new production capacity of caustic soda from July to August may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, manufacturers have over - sold in exports, and the pressure of new production capacity is basically digested by exports [3] - On the demand side, it is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, with weak support. The inventory of caustic soda in alumina is neutral, and the export direction has strong support, with a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the influence of anti - involution in China, the overall commodity sentiment is strong, but there is a risk that the trade war may exceed expectations in August. Under the background of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in a range - bound market for now. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand support, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures yesterday was 7215, with a daily change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 181,546 and the open interest decreased by 2617. The 09 - contract basis was - 135 (compared to - 114 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 20 (compared to - 11 the previous day). The important spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080, 7160, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decline from the previous day [1] Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market prices oscillated and declined. The crude oil market maintained an oscillating trend, and the linear futures were generally weak. The downstream factory orders were limited, the enthusiasm for starting work was low, and the intention to purchase raw materials was weak. The sales of petrochemical and trading companies were blocked, and the overall trading volume was limited despite the price decline [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, the short - term domestic commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The polyethylene fundamentals have not improved. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance volume in July will be less than that in June and the new production capacity in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The demand support is weak, and although the inventory was previously low year - on - year, it is gradually accumulating. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 77.79%, a decrease of 1.67% from the previous period, mainly due to more maintenance of existing devices [2] Demand - side Situation - The downstream of polyethylene is still in the off - season, with weak terminal orders and cautious enterprise inventory preparation. The shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with only a slight increase in the operating rate in some areas. The procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high, and the raw material inventory level is lower than last year. Some food and daily - chemical packaging films have short - term rigid demand support, but the continuous replenishment is insufficient. The operating rates of PE hollow and pipes are lower than the same period last year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Group 1 - The Canadian government is implementing measures to limit steel imports from countries like China, which are affected by U.S. tariffs, to protect its domestic industry and employment [1][2][4] - Canada will restrict steel imports from non-free trade agreement countries to half of the 2024 levels, imposing a 50% tariff on any excess [2][4] - The Canadian government has also announced an additional 25% tariff on steel products from all countries outside the U.S., including Chinese steel [2][4] Group 2 - In 2024, Canada's steel imports are projected to exceed $16 billion, with nearly half coming from the U.S. and about 10% from China [4] - Canada has imposed a 25% tariff on nearly $60 billion worth of U.S. goods, including steel and aluminum, in response to U.S. tariffs [4][5] - The Canadian government is reassessing all existing steel trade arrangements in light of ongoing negotiations with the U.S. [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating provided [1] - Asphalt: ★☆★, representing a bias towards an upward trend, but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - International crude oil prices may turn into a volatile and pressured state in July, but there is still a possibility of rising again in August. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are weak, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is declining. Asphalt prices are supported by low inventories, and the LPG market is in a weak state with a downward - trending disk [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined, with the SG08 contract falling 0.12% intraday. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 3.859 million barrels, but the unexpected increase in refined oil inventories raised demand concerns. Since May, oil prices have been supported by peak - season procurement expectations, but recently, the spot premium and monthly spread of crude oil have not strengthened further. In July, the negative impact of the trade war on oil prices is greater than the positive impact of geopolitical factors. In August, if the European diesel contradiction persists, the market may rise again [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel - related futures are all weak, with LU falling more deeply. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has started to decline since mid - July. Under the OPEC+ production - increase path, there is an expectation of increased supply of high - sulfur heavy resources globally. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil production areas such as Russia and Iran is relatively limited in the short term. The actual incremental effect of the previous pilot project of increasing the deduction ratio of fuel oil consumption tax in China is limited, and demand lacks drivers. FU cracking is expected to maintain a downward trend. The unilateral trend of LU mainly follows crude oil [2] Asphalt - Social inventories have slightly increased, while factory inventories have significantly decreased month - on - month, mainly driven by accelerated inventory reduction in East China. The shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has slightly increased month - on - month, and the cumulative year - on - year increase has decreased by 1 percentage point compared to the end of June. Overall, the resilience of asphalt supply increase remains to be observed, demand is still weak but there is a repair expectation, and low inventories still support prices. Today, crude oil has slightly declined, while BU has slightly increased, and cracking has also strengthened [3] LPG - The production - increase pressure in the Middle East persists. Although chemical procurement in the Far East has increased, overseas prices continue to be weak and volatile. Recently, import costs have continued to decline, but the weak prices of terminal products have kept PDH gross profit stable. PDH has continued to add maintenance, and the domestic supply and demand are both weak recently, with the domestic gas price facing downward pressure at the top. Crude oil has declined, and the off - season pattern in summer remains unchanged, with the disk trend being weak and volatile [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On Thursday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The spot price index has been rising continuously, indicating that the previous price increase announcements by leading shipping companies are likely to be implemented. However, due to trade - war uncertainties, the demand for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is expected to be weak, and the futures prices fluctuate greatly. The rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Contents Futures Market Data - EC2510, the main contract, closed down 4.28%, and the far - month contracts closed down between 1 - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index is 2421.94, up 163.9 points from last week, a 7.3% week - on - week increase. The EC main contract closed at 2164.500, up 16.0; the EC secondary main contract closed at 1581.3, down 70.70. The EC2508 - EC2510 spread increased by 28.30, and the EC2508 - EC2512 spread was 583.20, up 14.20. The EC contract basis was 257.44, down 11.50. The EC main contract open interest was 16587, down 2160 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) increased by 163.90, SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) was 1266.59, down 291.18. SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 30.20, and container ship capacity (in ten thousand TEUs) was 1733.29, down 0.25. CCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly) decreased by 29.29, CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1726.41, up 32.11. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) decreased by 40.00, the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1967.00, up 23.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 14788.00, down 95.00, and that of Capesize ships was 18645.00, up 1736.00 [1] Industry News - Trump said that drug tariffs may be introduced by the end of the month, and the timeline for chip tariffs is similar but less complex. He is studying 5 - 6 trade agreements, and 2 - 3 agreements may be reached before August 1. He may impose a unified tariff of about 10% on all small countries and send tariff payment notices to 150 countries. He is negotiating with India and the two sides are close to an agreement. The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that economic activity increased slightly from late May to early July, with high uncertainty and a neutral to slightly pessimistic economic outlook. The US Trade Representative's Office launched a 301 investigation into Brazil's unfair trade practices. Mexican President Cinbaum said Mexico does not accept the so - called "anti - dumping duty" on Mexican tomatoes imposed by the US unilaterally and will take corresponding actions if an agreement on tariffs cannot be reached by August 1 [1] Economic Data - In June, the US S&P Global Composite PMI index dropped slightly from 53 in May to 52.8. Price pressure increased significantly. In May, core PCE increased by 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 2.6%. Real personal consumption expenditure decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, the largest decline since the beginning of the year, and personal income decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, the largest decline since 2021 [1] Future Outlook - Trump threatens to impose a maximum 30% tariff on EU products starting August 1. China has implemented counter - measures against EU products such as brandy and medical devices. The 7 - 8 month period is a window for countries like Europe, Japan, and Vietnam to renegotiate with the US, with uncertainties remaining [1] Key Data to Focus On - On July 18 at 07:30, Japan's June core CPI annual rate; at 14:00, Germany's June PPI monthly rate; at 22:00, the US July one - year inflation rate expectation preliminary value and the US July University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary value [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the EU is preparing to impose tariffs on US services as a response to the US's recent tariff announcements, escalating the trade conflict into the digital services sector [1][2][4] - The EU is considering a potential tariff list that includes fees on digital services, particularly targeting advertising revenue from US tech companies [2][3] - The EU's response is partly driven by the significant trade surplus the US enjoys in services, amounting to approximately $100 billion annually, making it a more vulnerable target for retaliation [3] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the US and EU are currently at an impasse, with both sides expressing a willingness to retaliate if necessary [4] - EU officials are actively discussing the situation in Washington, indicating that there are still considerable differences between the two parties [4] - The EU is open to accepting a 10% tariff but seeks to reduce the 25% tariff on automobiles and secure guarantees on future exemptions for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [4]