张尧浠：美联储决议来袭、金价初现止跌信号望筑底待回升 上交易日周二(10月28日)：国际黄金震荡触底回升式收跌，其形态上，有止跌看涨的预期，这暗示下方空间有限，行情即将回落调整到位，并再度起涨攀 升。虽因市场还存在美国政府停摆解除后，以及美联储降息落地带来的卖事实下跌风险，但其带来的短线回落，也是多单入场的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3981.44美元/盎司，先行于9点时段录得日内高点4019.41美元，之后遇阻回落持续走低，到欧盘17点时段录得日内低点 3886.32美元，最后触底回升，延续到美盘时段，虽有回撤，但仍维持回升模式，最终收于3952.30美元，日振幅133.09美元，收跌29.14美元，跌幅 0.73%。 影响上，因贸易改善前景削弱了黄金的避险吸引力，美方称将与日本签署4900亿美元投资协议.....现货黄金跌至三周低点，一度跌破3900美元，但由于特 朗普再度炮轰鲍威尔，以色列下令多次空袭加沙，市场产生逢低买盘而最终触底回升收线。 展望今日周三(10月29日)：国际黄金亚市早盘开盘延续隔夜尾盘回撤之力后，又触底回升反弹。昨日的震荡止跌形态，产生了一定的买盘推动。但需稳健 看涨反弹，还需 ...

来源：36氪 金价现12年最大单日跌幅，双11黄金抢购潮遭遇史诗级回调，消费者账面亏损。 文｜饶桐语 编辑｜西打 来源｜每日人物（ID：meirirenwu） 封面来源｜Unsplash 此前，金价创造出12年来最大跌幅，单日下跌超过5%，堪称史诗级回调。这样的走势，让不少"攒金人"过了一个心情复杂的双11。 往年，双11最明显的标志是李佳琦在直播间里一个劲儿地敲锣，催促尾款人们"不要睡"。而今年，越来越多的消费者捏紧钱包，啥都不买，除了黄金—— 金价飞涨，自称"黄金血脉觉醒"的年轻人们奔走在各个平台，四处抄"黄金作业"，目的只有一个，趁着大促期间，以最多的优惠券，买入克价最低的黄 金。 没想到，好不容易凑完单，还没等到发货，金价就紧急撤回了涨势。小红书上，有位攒金人吐槽说，自己在双11忙活了两天，计算器都要按出火星子，一 度化身"鸡排哥"，蹲完这个券抢那个券，但晚上一看，金价跌到"天都塌了"，戏剧感拉满。 双11，狂做"黄金作业" 过去一周，28岁的北漂女孩袁佳，陆陆续续买入了接近10万元的黄金。其中，大部分是为火到断货的老铺黄金激情付费，她拿下了包括素金葫芦、玫瑰花 窗、大麦戒指等几款最热门的饰品，加起来 ...

Group 1: Gold and Platinum Prices - The international gold price is reported at $4081.8 per ounce, with various brand stores adjusting their prices accordingly [1] - Major brand stores such as Chow Tai Fook, Xie Ruilin, and others have set their gold prices at approximately 1223 RMB per gram [2][3][4][6][7] - Cai Bai Jewelry lists gold at 1175 RMB per gram, while Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang have slightly lower prices at 1220 RMB per gram [5][7] Group 2: Gold Recovery Prices - The recovery price for gold is set at 915 RMB per gram for 99.9% purity [9] - Recovery prices for various gold purities are as follows: 22k gold at 805 RMB per gram, 18k gold at 663 RMB per gram, and 14k gold at 513 RMB per gram [10][11][12] - Platinum recovery price is noted at 331 RMB per gram for 99.9% purity [13] Group 3: Bank Gold Bar Prices - Different banks have varying prices for gold bars, with Industrial and Commercial Bank pricing at 959.76 RMB per gram and China Bank at 954.76 RMB per gram [16] - Other banks like Agricultural Bank and Minsheng Bank have prices around 960.40 RMB and 962.50 RMB per gram respectively [16] - Notably, Lao Miao and Lao Feng Xiang have higher prices for their investment gold bars, at 1183 RMB and 1178 RMB per gram respectively [16] Group 4: Global Gold Market Dynamics - Major banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reportedly influencing the gold market, leading to strategic price manipulations [18] - The London gold fixing price is determined by five banks, which can lead to significant price fluctuations during their meetings [19] - The current high gold prices have led to increased volatility, with experts suggesting a potential drop below $4000 in the near future [19] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Gold accumulation services offered by banks allow investors to gradually invest in gold, starting from as low as 700 RMB for 1 gram [19] - Gold ETFs are highlighted as a convenient investment option, providing liquidity and low transaction costs, suitable for experienced investors [20] - The recent drop in gold prices has led to a surge in gold recovery business, with a reported 70% increase in domestic gold recovery volume [20]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices has led to significant losses for many investors, particularly among inexperienced individuals such as university students and young professionals [4][5][6]. Price Movements - On the 28th, spot gold prices fell below $3900 per ounce, marking a recent low [1]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also saw substantial reductions, with some brands experiencing a drop of over 20 yuan per gram in a single day. For instance, Lao Miao quoted 1192 yuan per gram, down 28 yuan; Chow Sang Sang at 1199 yuan, down 24 yuan; and Chow Tai Fook at 1198 yuan, down 25 yuan [3]. Investor Experiences - Many inexperienced investors, particularly university students, reported significant losses in their gold investments, often funded by their living expenses. They admitted to lacking knowledge about the gold market and were influenced by its popularity [4]. - One student shared that after initially making a profit, they faced losses when gold prices fell, attributing their losses to their lack of understanding of the market [4]. - Other individuals, including those already in the workforce, also shared their experiences of substantial losses, with some amounts ranging from tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands [5]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent fluctuations in gold prices are likely to continue due to high levels of profit-taking among investors. The core factors supporting long-term gold price increases, such as global uncertainty and declining real interest rates, remain unchanged [6]. - The market's sensitivity to sudden changes in the dollar index and Federal Reserve monetary policy is expected to heighten price volatility [6]. - Investment decisions should be based on individual risk tolerance and investment horizon, as many investors may have limited risk capacity [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, dropping below the psychological threshold of $4000 per ounce, raises questions about whether this represents an investment opportunity or a trap [1][3]. Market Reaction - On October 28, international spot gold prices fell to a low of $3971.38 per ounce, a drop of nearly $38 from the previous day's closing price, breaking through the $4000 mark without any signs of rebound [3]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices also decreased, with Chow Tai Fook's gold jewelry dropping from 1232 RMB per gram to 1223 RMB per gram, and Lao Miao's gold falling from 1228 RMB per gram to 1220 RMB per gram [3]. Factors Influencing Price Decline - The decline in gold prices is attributed to three main negative factors: 1. A significant easing in the US-China trade situation, which has reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [5]. 2. A potential diplomatic resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading investors to sell gold in favor of riskier assets like stocks [5]. 3. A strong rebound in the US dollar index, approaching the 100 mark, which historically has an inverse relationship with gold prices [5]. Historical Context - Analysts have drawn parallels between the current gold price drop and a similar situation in 2006, where gold prices fell by 30% in a short period. Currently, gold has already seen a nearly 20% decline since its peak in August [8]. - Unlike 2006, the current market environment includes factors such as central banks purchasing over 1000 tons of gold annually and the beginning of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which may mitigate the extent of the decline [8]. Technical Analysis - After breaching the $4000 mark, the $3950 level has emerged as a critical short-term support, corresponding to a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If this support fails, the next target could be in the $3800-$3850 range [10]. - Market sentiment remains cautious, with many traders adopting a wait-and-see approach, as evidenced by the lack of strong buying interest despite increased trading volumes [10]. Investment Strategies - The topic of "whether to buy the dip" has gained traction, with some younger investors entering the market through gold ETFs or accumulation plans, only to exit quickly after incurring losses [12]. - Institutional perspectives are divided: some remain optimistic about long-term support from central bank purchases and the US debt crisis, while others are pessimistic due to the strong dollar cycle [12]. Regulatory Concerns - The increase in gold price volatility has led to a rise in fraudulent activities, with warnings about scams involving "gold custody returns" and "virtual share trading" [14]. - Investors are advised to engage only with licensed institutions for gold investments, avoiding high-yield, low-risk promises that may lead to losses [14].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international gold prices have led to a significant drop, with a decrease of nearly 90 yuan per gram in less than half a month, prompting investors to sell their gold bars [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The international gold price experienced a weekly decline of over 3%, marking the first weekly loss since August 22, with spot gold prices dipping below $3,900 per ounce on October 28 [1] - In the Shenzhen Shui Bei gold and jewelry market, the price of gold jewelry was around 922 yuan per gram on October 28, down from nearly 1,010 yuan per gram on October 17 and less than 800 yuan per gram in early September [1][4] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - There has been a noticeable increase in gold recycling, with a month-on-month growth of nearly 15%, indicating cautious consumer sentiment despite the drop in gold prices [4] - Retail sales of gold jewelry typically rebound during price drops, but the current increase in recycling suggests consumers are more hesitant to purchase [4] Group 3: Pricing Strategies - Major brands like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Tai Fook have announced price increases for their gold products, with some items seeing price hikes of over 20% [4] - The price adjustments are primarily aimed at increasing the proportion of processing fees to maintain stable profit margins, as the price increases for branded gold jewelry remain lower than the rise in raw gold prices [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - Most market institutions predict that gold prices will likely remain high and volatile in the short term, advising investors to approach the current market with caution [5] - Long-term trends suggest that the upward trajectory of gold prices is expected to continue, supported by factors such as ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and high sovereign debt levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a significant pullback in gold prices after a recent surge, major investment institutions and retail investors maintain a bullish outlook on gold's long-term prospects, with expectations of prices potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce in the future [1][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a historic high earlier this month, reaching approximately $4,000, but have since retreated to around $3,900 due to profit-taking strategies by traders [2]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged by about 50%, driven by investor demand for hedging against currency devaluation and increasing fiscal pressures in developed countries [2]. - The recent market volatility included a significant one-day drop, with spot gold prices falling by as much as 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [2][4]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Major investment firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan remain optimistic about gold, with JPMorgan predicting an average price of $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026 [4][5]. - Goldman Sachs reiterated its long-term bullish stance, maintaining a target price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, suggesting potential "upside risks" to this forecast [5]. - Bank of America provided an even more aggressive forecast, suggesting gold prices could reach $6,000 by next spring, highlighting the low allocation of gold in global investment portfolios [5]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - The Bank of Korea plans to increase its gold reserves for the first time in over a decade, reflecting a trend of central banks actively participating in the gold market [3]. - Central bank demand has been a key driver of gold price increases, with significant purchases from various countries over the past two years [3]. - Analysts noted that while central bank demand remains strong, it may not be as robust as previously observed, indicating a potential for price corrections [3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment - The sentiment among market participants remains broadly bullish, with expectations for silver and other precious metals to also see significant price increases in the coming year [3]. - Historical analysis suggests that after significant declines in gold prices, there is often a rebound, with an average increase of about 1.82% within a month following a drop of 5% or more [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in international gold prices have led to significant losses for many investors, particularly inexperienced ones, highlighting the risks associated with gold investment during volatile market conditions [1][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - On October 28, spot gold prices fell by 2.18%, closing at $3898.9 per ounce, down over 10% from the high of $4381 per ounce on October 21 [1]. - COMEX gold futures showed a decline of 2.48%, with a trading volume of 119,600 contracts [2]. - Major jewelry retailers in China adjusted their gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook reducing its price to 1198 yuan per gram, a decrease of 25 yuan, and Luk Fook dropping to 1189 yuan per gram, down 34 yuan [2][3]. Group 2: Investor Experiences - Many inexperienced investors, particularly university students, have reported significant losses due to the recent drop in gold prices, often using funds from their living expenses [4][5]. - A student shared that after initially profiting from gold investments, they faced losses after buying more gold as prices rose, demonstrating a lack of understanding of market dynamics [8][9]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Predictions - Analysts attribute the recent gold price decline to three main factors: changes in the macroeconomic environment, technical selling pressure due to overbought conditions, and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and treasury yields [10][11]. - Despite short-term bearish predictions, many institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with forecasts suggesting potential price targets of $5000 per ounce in the future [11][12]. - Experts advise against treating gold as a get-rich-quick scheme and recommend strategies such as dollar-cost averaging and setting stop-loss limits for risk management [13].

28日，现货黄金跌破3900美元/盎司，为10月6日以来首次，日内跌幅扩大至2%。截至17时58分，伦敦金现报3897.61美元/盎司。近6个交易日，现货黄金 有5个交易日录得下跌。 经济学家盘和林表示："如果普通人在一个合理的价位介入，是可以投资的。但当前黄金投机气氛浓厚，普通人的对手是国外投机资本和全球央行，我认 为此时普通投资人'玩不赢'。"因此在他看来，现阶段普通百姓仍不宜参与黄金炒作。 来源 经济日报 智通财经等 校对 珵智 编辑 苏洋 周晨 点 点 鼓励小编继续搬砖 国内金饰价格今日（28日）也大幅下调 部分品牌金饰克价单日下跌超20元 ▪周大福金饰挂牌价调至1198元/克，较昨日下跌25元/克； ▪六福珠宝金饰调至1189元/克，较昨日下跌34元/克。 ▪周生生金饰调至1199元/克，较昨日下跌24元/克； ▪老庙黄金金饰调至1192元/克，较昨日下跌28元/克。 | C | 金饰排行 | | × | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 银行/品牌排序 | 金饰价格 = | 较上日涨跌 = 综合评分 = | | | 11 周大福 | 1198.00 | -25.00 | 4. ...

Core Insights - The recent decline in gold prices has led to significant inflows into gold ETFs in China, with a net inflow exceeding 2 billion yuan in just one week [3][4][6] - Despite the drop in gold prices, domestic gold ETFs have seen a continuous increase in shares, indicating that investors are viewing the price correction as a buying opportunity [4][6] - Analysts suggest that while short-term adjustments are expected, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to factors such as de-dollarization trends and ongoing central bank purchases [6][7] Market Trends - The international gold price fell sharply, reaching a low of 3,886 USD per ounce, down from a historical high of 4,381 USD per ounce within a week [2][4] - The domestic gold futures market mirrored this decline, with prices hitting a low of 900 CNY per gram [2] - The total increase in shares for the 14 gold ETFs linked to physical gold amounted to 865 million shares, with a total inflow of approximately 39.8 billion yuan over the past month [4][6] Investor Behavior - Many investors are adopting a "buy the dip" strategy, viewing the current price adjustments as an opportunity to accumulate gold [6][7] - The high volatility in gold prices has raised concerns about market overcrowding, prompting some analysts to advise caution in increasing gold allocations [7][8] - Recommendations for investors include a disciplined approach to asset allocation, ensuring that gold holdings remain within predetermined limits to manage portfolio volatility [7][8]