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联邦基金利率期货进一步削减美联储降息预期,美国10年期国债期货下跌9个点。
news flash· 2025-05-11 22:06
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate futures have further reduced expectations for rate cuts, leading to a decline in U.S. 10-year Treasury futures by 9 points [1] Group 1 - The reduction in rate cut expectations indicates a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [1] - The decline in 10-year Treasury futures suggests a potential increase in yields, reflecting investor reactions to the updated outlook on interest rates [1]
金油神策:5.12黄金、原油开盘操作建议、走势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-11 15:14
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The recent neutral trend in gold prices is attributed to the Federal Reserve's stance on not rushing to cut interest rates, as the US economy remains relatively stable with ongoing inflation risks [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in the summer, but bullish momentum in gold has shifted to a "wait-and-see" mode [1] - Gold prices have stalled twice around the $3,400 per ounce level, indicating potential weakness in the short-term upward trend [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Short-term gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3,260 to $3,360 range, with potential testing of the $3,260 support level if negotiations among major economies yield positive results [1] - Conversely, if negotiations stall or tensions escalate, gold prices may challenge the $3,400 resistance level, with a breakthrough targeting $3,500 [1] - The current price action shows gold in a triangular consolidation pattern, with the effectiveness of the support level needing further confirmation [1] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has ended its previous volatile pattern, with both benchmark crude oil prices experiencing significant weekly gains driven by trade policy expectations [3] - The positive outlook is supported by the US-UK agreement and the prospects of US-China meetings, alongside improved import and export data from China [3] - Oil prices rebounded from the $60.0 mark, with recent trading pushing prices above $61.0, indicating a potential bullish trend [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The recent price action shows a bullish signal with the MACD indicator forming a golden cross, suggesting a potential upward trend in the short term [3] - Key resistance for oil prices is noted at $62.2, while support is identified at $60.0 [3] - The current trading price for WTI crude oil is around $61.0 [3]
美股悄悄涨了14%:一场“散户”买出来的大反攻
Core Viewpoint - The recent stock market rebound is primarily driven by retail investors buying on dips, while institutional investors remain cautious due to concerns over economic slowdown and trade tensions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The S&P 500 Index rebounded 14% within a month after hitting a low on April 8, leading to discussions on when institutional investors might re-enter the market [1]. - Retail investors have been consistently buying stocks for 21 weeks, marking the longest buying streak since 2008, while institutional investors have been selling at near-historic rates [7]. - The volatility of the S&P 500 Index has decreased, with a 17-point drop in actual volatility, allowing investors to increase asset allocations [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Institutional investors are hesitant to adjust their expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, as uncertainty in the economy persists [6]. - Retail investors appear unaffected by trade policies and have continued to invest, with some focusing on large tech companies like Nvidia and Amazon [7][8]. - Some investment firms are adopting a more defensive stance, favoring sectors like healthcare and utilities due to improved earnings prospects [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts are closely monitoring the S&P 500 Index, noting that a rise to 5,800 points could trigger a shift in buying behavior among commodity trading advisors [12]. - The market's internal performance remains weak, and some observers are cautious about chasing what they perceive as a fading rebound [12].
闫瑞祥:英美协议缓解衰退担忧,降息概率锐减至 16.5%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 08:30
宏观面 近期国际贸易与金融市场局势复杂多变。贸易领域,美英达成 "突破性协议",英国将关税从 5.1% 降至 1.8%,并扩大美商品准入,但美国仍对英商品维持 10% 关税,协议虽带来乐观情绪,可欧盟也放话,若与美谈判不取消关税,将对 950 亿欧元美进口商品反制;美财长与贸易代表还将与中国高官会晤,备 受瞩目。金融市场上,英美协议致使避险情绪降温,黄金、日元等避险资产遭抛售,标普 500 指数上扬,市场对美联储 6 月降息预期大降,美债收益率显著 上涨。同时亚洲大国放松黄金进口购汇限制,助力黄金进口。尽管美英协议带来积极信号,但贸易担忧犹存,后续投资者需紧盯贸易局势、市场情绪变化及 美联储官员讲话,把握市场走向。 美元指数 在美元指数的表现上,周四美元指数呈现出上涨态势。当日美元指数价格最高攀升至100.739的位置,最低则下探至99.58,最终以 100.619的价格收盘。回顾 周四市场表现,在早盘期间价格短线先回撤调整,随后测试到四小时及日线支撑共振区域止步,随后如期上涨,并且随后不断再创日内高点,同时价格突破 近期震荡的高点位置,后续关注进一步上涨。 从多周期分析,周线级别来看价格压制在103.30区 ...
翁富豪:5.9美英协议与亚洲政策“双剑合璧”,今日黄金市场操作策略
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 08:02
昨日黄金冲高回落,亚盘初于 3415 承压,空单 3413.6 入场;欧盘反弹 3369 后二次承压,空单 3368.5 跟进。整体延续极弱下行,尾盘破 3300 加速探至 3288,凌晨反弹至 3300 上方,日线收长下影阳线,显示短期支撑有效,但反弹动能受前波段趋势压制。当前金价在 3300 - 3348 区间震荡,上方阻力 3348 - 3352,若突破需警惕二次冲高至 3365;下方支撑 3295 - 3303,若失守或回踩 3275 - 3255 区域。交易需紧盯关键位动态。 操作策略: 金融市场受美英协议影响,避险情绪降温,黄金、日元等避险资产遭抛售,标普 500 指数上扬。市场对美联储 6 月降息预期大降,美债收益率显著上涨。同 时亚洲大国放松黄金进口购汇限制,助力黄金进口。当前美英协议虽有积极信号,但贸易担忧犹存。投资者后续需紧盯贸易局势、市场情绪变化及美联储官 员讲话,以把握市场走向。 近期国际贸易与金融市场风云变幻。贸易端美英达成"突破性协议",英国大幅降低美商品关税至 1.8%并扩大准入,美仍对英商品维持 10%关税。协议虽带 来乐观情绪,但欧盟放话若与美谈判不取消关税,将对 950 亿 ...
金价亚盘震荡下跌,关注支撑位多单布局
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 06:33
需要提醒的是,市场担忧仍未完全消散,仍需留意逢低买盘的支撑情况。本交易日需要密切关注国际贸 易局势相关消息和市场情绪的变化,另外,有多位美联储官员将发表讲话,投资者也需要予以关注。 市场认为这一贸易协议是积极的,因为这意味着特朗普为友好国家设想了一个10%的基线,除了这以外 的任何内容都可以谈判。美国财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔将于周六在瑞士与中国最高经济官员会 晤。自特朗普首次宣布征收关税以来,被广泛视为地缘政治不确定性对冲工具的黄金曾多次刷新历史高 位。今天的市场都将此视为利好消息。在我看来,10%的基准关税对进入美国的商品来说仍然很高,而 且我认为确实改变了全球贸易的运作方式。英美贸易协议宣布后,包括标普 500 指数在内的华尔街主要 股指受到市场对贸易协议乐观情绪的提振,避险资产遭遇抛售,日元、瑞郎和金价均不同程度下跌。 英美贸易协议的达成,缓解了市场对美国经济衰退的都那样,市场对美联储6月份降息预期也进一步降 温,利率期货显示美联储6月份降息概率已经下降至16.5%,而一个月词概率曾接近90%。美元指数也因 此大幅上涨,周四盘中一度创4月11日以来新高至100.76,收报100.63,为连续两个交 ...
沪铜沪铝沪镍:价格震荡,需求各异 78000 2800
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 04:48
【沪铜:价格震荡,多因素交织】昨日,铜价早盘先上扬后下跌,夜盘小幅走强,重回 78000 上方。宏 观上,全球不确定性反复,中俄发表联合声明,英美达成关税协议,市场风险偏好改善,美联储降息预 期偏好,美元指数重回 100 上方。矿端供给紧张未变,冶炼加工费走低。国内消费旺季近尾声,去库节 奏放缓。综合看,贸易关税虽有突破,但美与他国谈判或存阻力,需求预期有限,叠加美元下行放缓, 铜价或维持区间震荡。【沪铝:延续震荡态势】昨日氧化铝价格反弹,夜盘至 2800 上分。宏观方面, 全球不确定性反复,中俄联合声明,英美关税协议达成,钢铝关税取消,市场风险偏好改善,美联储降 息预期偏好,美元指数重回 100 上方。氧化铝部分地区现货价格微升,短期减产增多,做空情绪减弱, 但新产能投产推进,进口矿石价格下行,氧化铝上方空间有限。沪铝供给约束仍在,产量增长慢。国内 旺季消费近尾声,去库节奏放缓,关注美国铝关税变化。综合看,氧化铝短期下行动能减弱,基本面仍 偏空,沪铝预计延续震荡。【沪镍:多空交织,格局未变】供应方面,矿端紧张未改善,关注雨季结束 进展;镍铁成本高,下游钢厂盈利承压,市场僵持;中间品受硫磺价格上涨和印尼天气扰 ...
隔夜市场解读:特朗普再怼鲍威尔背后 藏着哪些中长线机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-09 02:48
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased from 78 basis points at the beginning of the year to 66 basis points, indicating a shift in market sentiment [3] - The recent $100 billion trade agreement between the US and UK, including an order for $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft, has led to a 3% increase in Boeing's stock price, although the actual realization of these orders remains uncertain [3] - The competition between tech giants, particularly in the AI hardware space, is intensifying, with Apple's self-developed chip breakthroughs and ongoing rivalry with Meta in the smart glasses market being key areas to watch for long-term investment opportunities [3] Group 2 - Chinese concept stocks are experiencing a divergence, with companies like Li Auto and NIO seeing significant gains, while New Oriental's stock fell by 2.35% due to policy risks in the education sector [4] - The gold market has seen a 2.3% decline in New York gold futures, but the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies may provide a buffer for gold investments, suggesting a need for careful evaluation of bond and high-dividend stock allocations [4] - The yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury bonds has approached 50 basis points, indicating market expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, which necessitates a reassessment of investment strategies [4] Group 3 - Focus on innovative AI hardware companies with actual order support while being cautious of purely speculative plays [5] - Prioritize leading companies in the renewable energy sector that have successfully expanded into overseas markets and maintain stable profit margins [5] - Maintain a gold position of around 10% to hedge against policy uncertainty risks [5]
瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250508
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 08:48
贵金属产业日报 2025-05-08 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F3082507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 点,当前利率期货显示今年仍有3次降息空间。在此背景下,美元指数和长端美债收益率或维持相对承压态 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 790.78 | -12.72 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8094 | -158 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 198555 | 10247 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 228462 | -1892 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107220 | 2768 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 127151 | -2783 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 15648 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 931982 | -8999 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 801.9 ...
美联储降息预期强化!外资回流A股初现端倪?
Jin Rong Jie· 2025-05-08 01:21
4月24日消息,美联储一名高级官员警告称,如果美国政府维持激进的关税水平,企业可能会开始更多 地裁员,如果失业率大幅上升,将强化美联储降息预期。截至4月25日,市场预期美联储6月降息25BP 概率提升至55%。 | | | | | | | CME FEDWATCH TOOL - CONDITIONAL MEETING PROBABILITIES | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MEETING DATE 200-225 | | | | 225-250 250-275 275-300 300-325 325-350 | | | | 350-375 375-400 400-425 425-450 | | | 450-475 | | 2025/5/7 | | | | | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.1% | 93.9% | 0.0% | | 2025/6/18 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% ...