Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in copper prices are significantly influenced by the changing expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside tight supply fundamentals and agreements among Chinese copper raw material negotiation groups to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, leading to a bullish trend in copper prices [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The SMM copper concentrate index continued to decline, reporting -42.33 USD/ton in November 2025, a decrease of 0.39 USD/ton from October [2]. - The consensus among CSPT members includes reducing copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026, maintaining the Benchmark system, and establishing a blacklist for suppliers and testing agencies to prevent market disruption [2]. - In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 9.75% [3]. Inventory Trends - National copper inventories in major regions decreased for four consecutive weeks, with a reduction of 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons as of December 1, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. - LME copper inventories increased from 133,600 tons at the end of October to 152,950 tons by November 28, reflecting a contrasting trend in overseas inventories [4]. Market Outlook - Future copper price movements will be influenced by domestic macroeconomic indicators such as CPI, PPI, and industrial output, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [5]. - The market is expected to experience a "supply reduction, weak consumption" scenario, with a slight increase in weekly inventories anticipated [6]. - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with tight copper supply fundamentals expected to sustain high copper prices despite potential pressures from macroeconomic developments [6]. Institutional Commentary - Jinrui Futures noted that the recent dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the CSPT consensus strengthen the expectation of tighter copper supply, although actual market conditions need to be realized [7]. - Maike Futures highlighted that the increase in electrolytic copper production is due to improved raw material supply, while the high premiums in the spot market indicate tightening future supply expectations [8]. Price Forecasts - The Chilean National Copper Corporation forecasts an average copper price of 4.45 USD/pound in 2025 and 4.55 USD/pound in 2026, while JP Morgan predicts a rise to 12,000 USD/ton in Q1 2026 [9]. - UBS expects copper prices to continue rising due to ongoing supply disruptions and strong long-term demand driven by electrification and clean energy investments, with price targets set at 11,500 USD/ton for March 2026 and 13,000 USD/ton for December 2026 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing a critical period of direction choice, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and mixed economic data [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, a 24 percentage point increase from the previous month, driven by weak economic data and dovish comments from Fed officials [1] - The October meeting minutes revealed a close split on rate cuts, with a 4:5 ratio of support to opposition, making consensus in the upcoming December meeting crucial [1] - Goldman Sachs warns of a potential "hawkish cut," suggesting the Fed may cut rates while signaling no further easing [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 48.2, indicating contraction for two consecutive months, which has heightened rate cut expectations [2] - The inflation index rose to 58.5, indicating persistent inflationary pressures despite the contraction in manufacturing [2] - The US government shutdown may lead to the inability to release key economic data, increasing volatility in the dollar [2] Group 3: Currency Movements and Market Dynamics - Non-US currencies are strengthening, with the euro surpassing the 1.16 mark against the dollar, driven by valuation recovery despite a contracting manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone [2] - The British pound is stabilizing around 1.33, with weaker rate cut expectations from the Bank of England compared to the Fed, continuing to exert pressure on the dollar [2] - Commodity currencies are benefiting from rising oil prices, which have returned to $65, diverting demand away from dollar assets [2] Group 4: Technical and Market Signals - The dollar index is currently below the 200-day moving average of 99.66, with limited resistance to further declines; breaking below 98.76 and 98.30 could trigger programmatic selling, targeting 97.81 [2] - Increased trading volume in dollar futures indicates heightened speculation, with a significant drop in open interest suggesting capital is leaving the dollar [2] Group 5: Institutional Perspectives - Bank of America believes that rate cut expectations are already priced in, and hawkish signals could push the index back to 100 [3] - Goldman Sachs argues that the dollar's premium against G10 currencies is limited to 3%-5%, indicating restricted rebound potential [3] - The dollar's medium to long-term trajectory will depend on the relative growth rates of the US economy compared to others; a stable US economy with lagging recoveries in Europe and the UK could restore the dollar's safe-haven status [3]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations due to competing policy expectations, with a significant focus on the potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut expectations [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The surge in interest rate hike expectations has led to a rise in Japanese government bond yields, while the 10-year US-Japan interest rate differential continues to narrow, limiting the upward movement of USD/JPY [2] - Concerns over "carry trade unwinding" have increased, as indicated by Bitcoin's rapid decline, reflecting investor caution amid tightening liquidity at year-end [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy path continues to disrupt the market, with a high probability of a rate cut in 2024, but significant fluctuations in December's rate cut expectations have been observed [2] Group 2: Divergence in Market Opinions - Wall Street shows a clear divide regarding the BoJ's actions in December, with Morgan Stanley considering a rate hike as the baseline scenario, while Goldman Sachs adopts a more cautious stance, suggesting that the BoJ may wait for more wage data [3] - The Japanese economy's fundamentals provide some support for policy adjustments, despite a temporary contraction in Q3 2025, with indicators such as labor market shortages and rising minimum wages suggesting a basis for wage increases [3] Group 3: Key Upcoming Events - Two critical events to watch are the release of the Japanese Tankan survey on December 15, which will influence BoJ policy decisions, and the Fed's December meeting, which could clarify rate cut expectations [4] - A potential divergence in policy between the BoJ and the Fed could fundamentally alter the valuation logic of USD/JPY, likely leading to a downward trend in the exchange rate if the BoJ initiates a rate hike while the Fed enters a rate cut cycle [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices are likely to rise due to the Fed's expected rate cuts and the impact of the new Fed Chair nominee. However, factors like the Venezuela situation, Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium, which have strong industrial attributes, have shown signs of weakness recently, and investors should be aware of the adjustment risks after their short - term price surges. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the range of $3880 - 4380 per ounce, and it's not advisable to over - chase rises or falls at present. In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system support the upward trend of precious metals [4]. - The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. After the significant decline in gold and silver prices since late October, some of the internal adjustment risks have been released. Investors should look for opportunities to go long again based on the resonance of technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: The expected Fed rate cuts push up the liquidity premium of precious metals, but the situation in Venezuela, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and global trade tensions also affect prices. Silver, platinum, and palladium have shown signs of weakness. London gold needs to accumulate momentum in the $3880 - 4380 per ounce range. This week, pay attention to the US - Russia talks, the Venezuela situation, and the November PMI data of the US and Europe [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The table shows the pre - closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, percentage change, open interest, and change in open interest of Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Gold T + D, and Silver T + D [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may reach $4500 and $4800 per ounce, and London silver may reach $58 and $63 per ounce. After the decline in gold and silver prices since late October, look for long - entry opportunities based on technical and fundamental factors [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][15]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia and the US discussed the possible ways to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but they failed to reach a compromise on territorial disputes [16]. - US President Trump will announce the nominee for the Fed Chair early next year, further prolonging the selection process [16]. - The eurozone's inflation rate unexpectedly rose in November, which may strengthen the expectation that the European Central Bank will not cut interest rates further soon [17].

近期工业线材市场价格先涨后窄幅回落，主要原因是：首先，目前钢厂产线开工率偏低，产量、库存均 下降，市场部分资源少，钢厂及贸易商积极挺价。其次涨价初期，部分终端适量拿货，价格上涨后，终 端对高价接受度有限，成交一般。最后原料价格稳中回落，成本端支撑转弱。不过短期工业线材市场供 需两弱加之美联储降息预期高、市场对国内会议存预期，预计短期市场稳中震荡小涨。 来源：卓创资讯 ...

美国就业下滑。宏观方面，国务院总理李强在主持专题学习时指出，新型城镇化是扩大内需和促进产业升级、做 强国内大循环的重要载体。要因地制宜实施好新型城镇化规划。科学有序推进农业转移人口市民化。要深入实施 城市更新行动，把城市更新和消除安全隐患、稳楼市等工作结合起来，扎实推进好房子建设和房地产高质量发展。 要着力破解城乡二元结构。海外方面，ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来 最大降幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡下跌，沪指跌0.51%收于3878点，创业板指跌1.12%。行业方面，板块指 数跌多涨少，交通运输、有色金属、煤炭行业领涨，传媒、计算机、房地产、商贸零售行业跌幅居前。当日沪深 两市成交额为1.67万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，道指涨0.86%报47882.9点。 期指基差修复。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货的贴水继续修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同 步增加。 策略 海外方面，美国小非农就业数据表现弱于预期，美联储降息预期进一步升温，美股三大指数均小幅收涨。国内方 面，指数开启二次探底，关注即将召开的两大 ...

Economic Data - The U.S. November "small non-farm" employment data showed the largest decline in two and a half years, increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [4] - The ISM Services PMI index for the U.S. rose to 52.6 in November, marking a nine-month high [4] - The Eurozone's October PPI decreased by 0.5% year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month [4] - The EU plans to completely ban imports of Russian natural gas starting in autumn 2027 [4] - China has become Brazil's largest fertilizer supplier for the first time [4] - The retail sales of passenger cars in China for November reached 2.263 million units, a year-on-year decline of 7% [4] - IDC forecasts that the iPhone 17 will drive Apple to record shipment volumes in 2025 [4] - Li Auto officially launched its first AI glasses, Livis, with a starting price of 1,999 yuan [4] - ByteDance announced that TikTok plans to invest 200 billion reais (approximately 38 billion USD) [4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 23,454.09, up 0.17% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 47,882.90, up 0.86% [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,849.72, up 0.30% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,760.73, down 1.28% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,878.00, down 0.51% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A-share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross-year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to remain volatile, with funds favoring defensive allocations. Once the meeting contents are clear and the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's interest rate cuts, market risk appetite is expected to rise again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before, with declines ranging from -0.25% to -0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also decreased, with declines ranging from -0.35% to -0.41%. The trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and the open interest of most contracts increased [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts dropped, with declines from -0.35% to -0.42%. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines ranging from -0.53% to -0.58%. The trading volume and open interest varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts had different values compared to the previous values, with some spreads widening and some remaining the same [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Stock Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes decreased compared to the day before, with declines of -0.51%, -0.52%, -0.62%, and -0.89% respectively. The trading volume and total trading amount also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 industry index showed different trends, with the raw materials industry rising by 0.85% and other industries such as energy, industry, and optional consumption showing declines [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased compared to the day before, indicating changes in the relationship between futures and spot prices [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from -0.51% to -1.12% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by -1.28%, the DAX Index decreased by -0.07%, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.30%, and the Nikkei 225 Index remained unchanged [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. Relevant measures should be taken in urbanization planning, population citizenization, urban renewal, and breaking the urban - rural dual structure [2] - The US President signed a law regarding US - Taiwan relations, and China urged the US to stop official exchanges with Taiwan and not send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces [2] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Planning (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai in playing a leading role and promote the construction of a world - class city cluster [2] - From January to November this year, consumer goods trade - in drove related commodity sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration issued an action plan for the integrated development of culture, tourism, and civil aviation, including 15 specific measures [2] - As the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of national subsidy funds is further consumed, more than 20 cities across the country have suspended or adjusted automobile trade - in subsidy activities [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market were 1.354 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new - energy vehicle market was 59.8% [2] - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed down, while logistics demand in the industrial manufacturing and consumer sectors showed positive and stable trends respectively [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the foreign exchange market, particularly focusing on the performance of the Chinese Yuan (RMB) against the US Dollar (USD) and other currencies such as the Japanese Yen and British Pound [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **RMB Appreciation**: The RMB has shown strong appreciation against the USD, driven by a weak USD index and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [1][2]. - **Federal Reserve's Influence**: The market's anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve has significantly increased, leading to a decline in the 2-year US Treasury yield and a weaker USD index, which has created a favorable environment for non-USD currencies, including the RMB [1][8]. - **Market Behavior**: In late November, there was a surge in corporate foreign exchange settlements as companies aimed to lock in profits and mitigate risks, which contributed to the RMB's strength [6]. - **Dual-Drive Mechanism**: The simultaneous strengthening of the onshore and offshore RMB rates, along with the central bank's successful exchange rate management, has reinforced market expectations for RMB appreciation [5]. - **Global Economic Factors**: Signs of a slowing US economy, political uncertainties, and concerns over USD credit have weakened the USD index, prompting international capital to shift towards other assets, including the RMB [9]. Additional Important Content - **Yen and Pound Performance**: The Japanese Yen has strengthened due to indications from the Bank of Japan regarding potential interest rate hikes, while the British Pound has rebounded following the UK government's budget plan that alleviated fears of fiscal instability [3][10]. - **Market Volatility**: A technical issue at CME caused a brief disruption in derivatives trading, but it did not significantly impact the overall market trend due to the timing of the incident [4]. - **Future Outlook for RMB**: The RMB is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, supported by the Fed's rate cut expectations and seasonal settlement demands. However, potential risks include a recovery in the US economy that could lead to a rebound in the USD [11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the foreign exchange market and the factors influencing the RMB's performance against the USD and other currencies.

在亚洲早盘交易中， 黄金价格小幅走高。澳新 银行研究分析师在一份报告中写道，市场情绪可能受到 美国就业数据的支持，该数据加剧了市场对劳动力市场疲软程度超出预期的担忧，从而强化了美联储将 降息的预期。 ...