Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a pullback after a brief rally, with the Hong Kong stock market also declining by 0.74% [1] - President Trump indicated potential new tariffs on trade partners, including China, which has led to skepticism in the market regarding the actual implementation of these tariffs [1] - The White House's claims of progress in trade negotiations with allies have been denied by those countries, indicating a lack of consensus [1] Gold Market Activity - Gold prices have become active again, with Deutsche Bank attributing recent declines to a rebound in the US dollar and market overreaction to tariff news [2] - Despite the recent pullback, the outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing uncertainties surrounding US tariffs [2] - Several gold mining companies, including Lingbao Gold and Shandong Gold, saw rebounds in their stock prices [2] Japanese Market Investment - Overseas investors have net purchased 9.64 trillion yen (approximately 675 billion) in Japanese bonds and stocks, marking the highest level since records began in 1996 [3] - A significant portion of this investment has flowed into the Japanese bond market, indicating a potential future interest in the Chinese market [3] Banking Sector Performance - A-share listed banks reported strong growth in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025, with steady credit expansion [3] - Major banks in China, including the "Big Four," have seen their stock prices reach historical highs, reflecting investor confidence [3] New Consumption Trends - Investment is shifting towards new consumption sectors such as personal care, cosmetics, and jewelry, with companies like Shangmei and Juzhong Biotech showing strong performance [4] - Shangmei's recent partnership and its leading position in the beauty market highlight the growth potential in this sector [4] Oncology Sector Developments - The upcoming ASCO 2025 conference will showcase significant clinical advancements from companies like Rongchang Biotech and Ascentage Pharma, with multiple projects selected for presentation [5][6] - Rongchang Biotech's stock surged over 17% following the announcement of its clinical progress [5] Wind Power Industry Insights - Wind power companies have reported strong Q1 results, with expectations for increased demand and improved operational efficiency in the coming years [7] - The domestic wind power installation forecast for 2025 and 2026 shows significant growth, particularly in offshore wind projects [7] Individual Company Highlights - TCL Electronics announced a new stock incentive plan aimed at boosting employee confidence and aligning with its global growth strategy [9] - The company reported a projected revenue increase of 25.7% for 2024, with significant growth in its innovative business segments, including solar energy [10]

过去一个月，关于黄金的新闻只有两个："金价大涨""金价大跌"。 无论是钢丝的哪一头，都毫无水分地站上热搜大榜。从总体趋势上看，金价仍呈上扬形态，盘中的跌宕 回调，则更加剧了投资者的炒金热情。 黄金价格接连闯破四道整数关口，同时刺激的还有每一个投资人的心脏。过去的30个月里，黄金价格翻 涨了一倍之多。 一场炒金狂欢在各大社交软件上演，每个小时都有新的行情刺激耳膜，有人坐地起价，开出198-598元不 等的黄金投资群入群费用，声称能够"带大家起飞"；还有人试图通过借贷来加高杠杆短期炒金获利，" 02年女生借贷100万炒金月赚9万"的笔记让人意乱神迷。 "疯抢"背后，是急速跳动的黄金价格。 4月11日，现货黄金突破3200美元/盎司，引发市场震动。就在接下来7个交易日内，这个数字又变成了 3300，3400，3500。 4月23日，黄金再次回到3300大关之内。 随着特朗普任期的到来，水深火热的关税战，使得避险需求涌入黄金，资本市场的原始反应和荒诞现 实，持续刷新着看客的认知。 作者 | 张来 编辑 | 宝珠 视觉 | 顾芗 4月22日，深圳水贝市场的一位 黄金商家翁乐滨告诉盐财经："上周，水贝这边的金条库存全部都 ...

以下文章来源于财经杂志 ，作者成孟琦 黄慧玲 编辑｜杨秀红 美国总统特朗普，又一次因为"改口"，而使全球资产出现风险偏好的转换，还带动中国资产上涨。 受特朗普对中国关税"松口"的影响，4月22日，避险情绪消退下，传统避险资产黄金、日元和瑞士 法郎出现不同程度回落，美国股市则出现回升，美股三大股指均上涨超2.5%。 4月23日，美股三大 股指数续升，纳指收涨2.5%，道指收涨1.1%，标普500指数收涨升1.7%。 现货黄金在回调后反弹，4月22日-23日，现货黄金连续走低，伦敦金现一度跌至3291美元/盎司， 4月23日下跌2.71%。不过，4月24日，金价开始反弹，截至上午11时，伦敦金现反弹至3350美 元/盎司左右，涨幅近2%。 财经杂志 . 《财经》杂志官方微信。《财经》杂志由中国证券市场研究中心主办，1998年创刊，秉承"独立、独 家、独到"的新闻理念，以权威性、公正性、专业性报道见长，是政经学界决策者、研究者、管理者的 必读刊物。 机构认为，贸易紧张局势最糟糕阶段可能已过去，市场焦点将集中在中美谈判及中国自身政策上。 文｜《财经》特约撰稿人 成孟琦 记者 黄慧玲 中国资产方面，4月23日，A股直冲 ...

点此无门槛进群 关税战叠加降息不确定性！黄金高位震荡何时结束？多空如何把握交易机会？点此0元进群参加期货特 训营！仅剩50个名额，立即进群！ 相关链接 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price is expected to face a downward risk in the second quarter due to the impact of US tariffs and the entry into the off - season of spot trading, despite the tight supply of copper concentrates in the medium - term, short - term smelting cost support, and the transfer of global inventory to the US [1][2] - For protein meal, the second - quarter Brazilian new soybean exports are large, putting downward pressure on the near - month contracts of soybean meal, and the spread between near - and far - month contracts is affected by Trump's attitude. Under the background of trade - war easing, the spread of soybean - rapeseed meal 2610 should be narrowed [4][5] - The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the near term due to improved rigid demand and stronger crude - oil cost. In the long term, it is expected to maintain a strong trend with limited supply growth and increasing demand from road projects [6][8][9] 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Price Range** - Intraday: 75,200 - 77,300 [1] - Medium - term: 66,000 - 90,000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an operation idea of weakening oscillation [1] - **Core Logic** - Macro: Trump's tariff war and related remarks have caused dissatisfaction, and then he proposed to lower tariffs and abandon the idea of firing Powell [1] - Supply: Global copper concentrate supply is expected to be tight, but some mining companies plan to increase production. Some smelters reduce production due to negative processing fees, while domestic copper enterprises increase imports [1] - Demand: The current peak season has stable demand growth, but US tariffs may suppress demand. The off - season starts at the end of the second quarter [1] - Inventory: On April 23, LME copper inventory decreased by 7,450 tons (3.50%) to 205,250 tons, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 1,728 tons to 44,965 tons [2] Protein Meal - **Price Range** - Intraday: Soybean meal主力[2950,3050] [3] - Medium - term: The spread between near - and far - month contracts of soybean meal narrows [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Short soybean meal 2601 and long rapeseed meal 2601 [3] - **Core Logic** - Trump's trade - war easing remarks had little impact on soybean varieties, while vegetable oils rose. Indonesia and Japan may increase US purchases [4] - Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be large in April. US soybean planting progress is 8% as of April 20. Chinese soybean imports in March were low [4] - Canadian rapeseed planting area is expected to decrease, and the ending inventory is raised [5] Petroleum Asphalt - **Price Outlook** - Intraday: Oscillate strongly [7] - Medium - term: Run strongly [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Long asphalt and short high - sulfur fuel oil spread strategy [7] - **Core Logic** - Supply: Local refineries are in loss, but the operating rate and production are increasing. Shandong refinery profit is - 645.37 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 30.7% [6] - Demand: Most areas have good construction conditions. Southern demand is stable, and northern demand is improving. Waterproofing membrane enterprises' operating rate is 32.0% [6] - Inventory: Refinery inventory decreased by 1.9 tons to 57.5 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.6 tons to 56.3 tons [6][9] - Cost: Pay attention to Iran - US nuclear negotiations and sanctions. Trump's low - oil - price policy affects the market, and the raw - material cost has support [9]

北京君城永和教育咨询有限公司 经济困境宛如一座难以翻越的大山，横亘在特朗普面前。美国政府债务规模犹如滚雪球般越来越大，2025年，需要偿还的到期国债高达9.2万亿美元，仅6月 份就要偿还6万亿美元 ，这还没算上利息。为了缓解财政压力，特朗普可谓绞尽脑汁。他先是委托马斯克进行改革，期望精简政府机构，降低运行开支，结 果改革遭遇层层阻力，仅仅搞掉了几个与民主党利益相关的部门，距离2万亿美元的目标遥不可及，马斯克还得罪了众多政界大佬，特斯拉在西方遭受抵 制，最终被特朗普"扫地出门"。讹诈乌克兰用矿产抵债的计划，也因泽连斯基的强硬态度和欧洲的持续援助而泡汤。关税战更是把特朗普架在火上烤，他本 想借此捞钱还债、逼迫他国与中国脱钩并缩小"贸易逆差"，结果美国进口商成本激增，供应链断裂风险加剧，企业怨声载道，国内反对声此起彼伏，中国强 硬反制，欧盟准备反制，盟友英国和日本也不配合，特朗普不仅没捞到好处，还让自己陷入孤立无援的境地。他向美联储施压要求降息，可美联储主席鲍威 尔不为所动，气得特朗普在社交平台上频繁"开炮"，却也无济于事。 法律危机也如阴云般笼罩着特朗普。"密件风波"让他焦头烂额，2022年8月，美国联邦调查局搜 ...

美国东部时间4月23日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在美国华盛顿特区出席二十国集团财长和央行行长会 议时表示，当前全球经济充满不确定性，经济碎片化和贸易紧张局势加剧，扰乱全球产业链供应链，引 发金融市场动荡，削弱全球经济增长动能，各方应加强合作，努力避免全球经济滑向"高摩擦、低信 任"的轨道。贸易战、关税战没有赢家，单边主义、保护主义没有出路，不符合任何一方利益。中国将 坚持对外开放，坚定支持自由贸易规则和多边贸易体制，推进普惠包容的经济全球化，维护全球经济和 金融稳定。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Regarding the overall market, the market is frequently disturbed by Sino-US tariff conflicts. Although future tariffs may drop to around 50%, this level still has a significant impact on China's exports. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [4][5]. - For different varieties, there are various investment suggestions and trend judgments, such as considering IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or staying on the sidelines for stock index futures; being moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds for treasury bond futures; suggesting to take a short - selling approach for eggs; considering short - selling the LH2507 contract for live pigs, etc. Summary by Directory Macro Information - Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will "drop significantly but not to zero", which is a response to Treasury Secretary Bessent's comment. Bessent expected the tariff war between the two major economies to "de - escalate" [5]. - China's attitude towards the US tariff war is clear: not willing to fight but not afraid to fight. China will fight if necessary and is open to talks [5]. - China and Azerbaijan will strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, green energy, and the digital economy [5]. - China's consumer market has achieved a stable start this year. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points faster than the whole of last year. The consumer market is expected to continue to develop steadily [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary adheres to the strong - dollar policy [5]. - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7, the service PMI preliminary value was 49.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1. The US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 51.4, and the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 [5]. - Several OPEC + member states will suggest that the organization accelerate oil production increases for the second consecutive month in June [5]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The stock market fluctuated narrowly due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about selling restrictions. The future tariff reduction to around 50% still has a large impact on domestic exports. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes of weak economic expectations but strong micro - liquidity expectations [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Be moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds. The money market was loose after the tax payment period, and bond market sentiment was weak due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about the central bank's investigation of duration mismatch risks. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [5]. Container Shipping to Europe - Viewpoint: Take profit on long positions in the main contract. The market sentiment on the disk has recovered, but most shipping companies will continue to use the April 30th booking quotes in early May, and some route quotes have been slightly reduced. There are many uncertainties in the market, and the average spot quote may further decline [6][7]. Cotton - Logic and Viewpoint: Domestic actual orders and demand prospects are still worrying. Although there may be a short - term relief, there is still pressure for the domestic cotton price to rebound from a low level. The domestic cotton price rebounded from a low - level shock, boosted by the easing of the global trade situation, but concerns about upstream and downstream demand remain [7]. Sugar - Logic and Viewpoint: There is a stage - based abundant supply, and there is still uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The sugar price will fluctuate. The domestic sugar price mainly follows the international sugar price. The supply is increasing in Brazil, and the exchange rate of the Brazilian real is appreciating. In China, the drought in the south has been alleviated by rainfall, which has suppressed the sugar price [7]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short - sell palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. For palm oil, the current production area has entered the production - increasing season, and the weather is expected to improve in the next two weeks, which will help increase production. For soybean meal, although there is short - term spot tension, the supply pressure will be large in May and June [7][9]. Eggs - Viewpoint: The upward pressure on the spot price is increasing, and there is a possibility of a gradual weakening. It is expected that the egg futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [8][9]. Apples - Viewpoint: Lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and there is an expectation of price increase. The May Day holiday stocking continues, and the market in both the production and sales areas is booming [9]. Red Dates - Viewpoint: Stop losses on short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The Xinjiang jujube trees have entered the budding stage, and the supply in the Hebei market is sufficient. The demand for tonics has decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the sales areas is relatively light [9][10]. Live Pigs - Viewpoint: Consider short - selling the LH2507 contract. The consumer demand is weak, and it is the seasonal off - season. The supply side shows a continuous inventory accumulation phenomenon. The short - term support for the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the continuity of second - fattening entry and the changes in the sales volume of leading enterprises [11]. Crude Oil - Future Outlook: In the long - term trading logic of the crude oil market, the supply side has pressure due to OPEC +'s planned production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in May. The demand side is affected by the weakening US economy and the global trade war. The upward space of oil prices is limited [12]. Fuel Oil - Future Outlook: Fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price fluctuations but be relatively stronger than crude oil. The key is to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the production increase under the influence of the trade war [12]. Plastics - Viewpoint: After the L and PP rebound, they can be short - sold. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the long - term impact of tariffs on export demand is large, and the downstream demand is weakening [13]. Rubber - Strategy: There is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - like fluctuation. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. After the NR04 delivery, pay attention to the opportunity of the RU - NR price difference to widen [13]. Methanol - Viewpoint: Short - sell after the rebound. The international trade environment is still poor, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import supply is increasing, and the downstream profit is poor, which may lead to shutdowns [13]. Caustic Soda - Future Outlook: The spot price is expected to be weak after a round of replenishment. The futures price will also show a similar trend, and it is recommended to maintain a weak - fluctuation trading idea [14]. Soda Ash and Glass - Viewpoint: For soda ash, the supply has marginally improved, but the high - inventory accumulation expectation still exists, and the price is expected to rebound in the short term but with limited space. For glass, there is a risk of decline due to the under - expected peak season. Consider the opportunity of long - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage [14]. Asphalt - Future Outlook: Without the expectation of a significant increase in crude oil prices, the asphalt price is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the price has support, but the upper pressure comes from the oil price [15]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Future Outlook: In the short term, LPG mainly follows the crude oil price fluctuations. The long - term logic of increasing supply and decreasing demand may drive the center of the LPG futures price to move down, and currently, it is mainly in a state of oscillation [15]. Pulp - Future Outlook: Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The weak demand and high inventory situation have not improved. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Logs - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the impact of funds and macro - sentiment. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [17]. Urea - Future Outlook: The spot market atmosphere is relatively poor, and the spot price is expected to decline under pressure. The UR2509 contract can be considered for long - buying after a significant decline [17]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The tariff tension has eased, but there is still uncertainty. The high premium of Shanghai aluminum has declined, but strong de - stocking is the main trend recently. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [16][17]. - Alumina: The production capacity of maintenance and reduction is increasing, and the spot price is stable with strong cost support. However, the expected new production capacity is stable, and the supply surplus expectation is high. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term bottom range, and interval trading can be carried out [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The impact of US tariffs on the lithium carbonate market is not significant. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, and it is advisable to adopt an oscillation trading idea [17][18]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It is difficult to form a continuous de - stocking expectation. The market is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short - sell. The previous short positions and sold call options can be held [19][20]. - Polysilicon: The 06 contract is difficult to fall deeply but has limited upward space. The 07 contract is priced according to the supply - demand contradiction. It is advisable to hold the previous short positions and sold call options and short - sell on rebounds [19][20][21]. Steel and Minerals - Market Outlook: The domestic steel market has weak demand in the building materials sector and some pressure in the coil sector. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is basically stable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, with limited short - term upward space [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - Viewpoint: Without large - scale production reduction of coal - coking enterprises or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, there is no condition for going long. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [21]. Ferroalloys - Viewpoint: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and sell 06 - contract put options on silicomanganese. The current valuation of both is low, but there is a lack of rebound drivers [21][22].

Group 1: Trade Policies and Impacts - The U.S. President Trump continues to reinforce his trade war policies, specifically targeting non-tariff barriers set by the EU and Japan, while demanding Japan to significantly reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. [1] - Countries like Thailand and Vietnam are showing reluctance to quickly compromise with the U.S. on trade negotiations, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [1][2]. - The U.S. is imposing new port fees on Chinese vessels, which could accelerate the shift of shipping orders from China to Japan and South Korea, potentially increasing global shipping costs [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 index down 6% in April, while the dollar index has dropped 5%, reflecting concerns over "stagflation" in the U.S. economy [2]. - Gold prices have surged over 2.5%, reaching a historical high of over $3420 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising market volatility [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing sector is facing challenges as companies like the American baby products firm are halting orders due to new tariffs, highlighting the impact of trade policies on domestic production capabilities [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Adjustments - China has significantly reduced imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas, with a 70% decrease in the first quarter, as it shifts to suppliers in Indonesia and Qatar due to tariffs [3]. - The logistics sector is facing increased complexity and costs, with major shipping companies like DHL and FedEx adjusting their operations in response to new trade regulations [4]. - The Chinese shipbuilding industry is under pressure as U.S. tariffs may lead to a shift in orders to South Korea and Japan, which could raise global ship prices by 30% to 50% [6]. Group 4: Diversification Strategies - China is actively pursuing a diversified global economic strategy, with increased engagement in Southeast Asia and other regions to mitigate the impact of U.S. trade policies [9][11]. - The recent statistics show a rise in foreign buyers at trade fairs, with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative accounting for 72% of the total, indicating a shift in trade focus [9]. - Chinese manufacturing investment abroad has reached nearly $300 billion, with a notable increase in investments in Latin America and Europe, reflecting a strategic shift to counter geopolitical pressures [11].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 04 月 24 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】中国 31 省份进出口全景图 （2024）：区域格局、商品结构与贸易方式》 2025-04-22 《【粤开宏观】"双标"的美国产业政策： 类型、动因、效果及思考》2025-04-15 《【粤开宏观】可以更加坚定地看好中国股 市》2025-04-08 《【粤开宏观】重新理解特朗普关税：中国 应对的三大原则和五大建议》2025-04-06 《【粤开证券】特朗普"对等关税"为何远 超市场预期？影响及下一步》2025-04-03 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】财政如何应对关税战？ 摘要 美国发起全球关税战严重破坏了全球经贸秩序，对华关税税率之高可能导致 中美贸易事实上脱钩，这在冲击美国经济的同时也将对中国的经济增长、出 口和就业产生较大冲击。充分估计形势的严峻性、充分做好应对的准备，未 雨绸缪，才能打赢关税战并化危为机；由此契机实施一系列改革，将推动中 国经济从债务和投资驱动转向科技和消费驱动、实现产业链高端 ...