Core Viewpoint - The era of easy profits in the liquor sector is fading for investors in the consumer space, prompting public funds to actively expand their investment boundaries and reconstruct their investment methodologies in response to changing consumer habits and channels [1][2]. Investment Strategy Adjustments - The FuGuo Consumption Upgrade Mixed Fund announced adjustments to its investment scope to better meet investor needs and enhance market competitiveness, incorporating the beauty and personal care sector into its consumption upgrade theme [1][2]. - The fund manager emphasized a focus on emerging consumer sectors, particularly companies with global competitive potential, as evidenced by the fund's increased holdings in stocks like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold [2]. Performance of Emerging Consumer Stocks - Emerging consumer stocks have shown significant growth, with companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold experiencing stock price increases of over 100% this year [3]. - Several funds heavily invested in emerging consumer sectors have seen substantial net asset value increases, with some funds reporting returns exceeding 42% year-to-date [3]. Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Traditional consumer stocks, particularly in the liquor sector, are underperforming, while new sectors such as pet economy, beauty care, and gold jewelry are thriving [3][4]. - Fund managers are adapting their strategies to align with market changes, focusing on mid-to-high-end domestic brands that are competing with foreign brands in various sectors [4]. Focus on New Consumption Channels - Industry experts highlight the importance of adapting to new consumer behaviors and channels, such as the shift from traditional media to platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu, which are reshaping brand engagement [5][6]. - The rise of new product categories, including pet food and functional beverages, is noted as a significant opportunity for growth in the consumer market [5][6]. Technological Innovations and Market Opportunities - The integration of AI technology is driving the emergence of innovative products like AI glasses and smart home devices, creating new growth opportunities in traditional industries [6]. - The rapid growth of "self-care" consumption categories, such as medical aesthetics and pet economy, is also highlighted as a key trend in the consumer market [6].

发布日期：2025年05月18日 本报告由中信建投证券股份有限公司在中华人民共和国（仅为本报告目的，不包括香港、澳门、台湾）提供。在遵守适用的法律法规情况下，本报告亦可能由中信建投（国际）证券有限公司在香港提供。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款和声明。 证券研究报告行业简评报告 家电板块超额复盘：以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块配置价值凸显 分析师：马王杰 mawangjie@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440521070002 分析师：付田行 futianhang@csc.com.cn SAC 编号：S1440524070015 以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块配置价值凸显 2 核心观点：复盘过去十年：家电板块在长周期维度中大部分时间段均能明显跑赢沪深300。 即使部分时点受短期因素影响阶段性跑输，但跑输幅度基本控制在10%；而一旦市场风格 与板块自身基本面相配合，板块则会取得非常可观的超额收益，基本都在25%及以上的水 平。整体来看，如果以沪深300作为业绩基准，家电板块无论是从获取超额弹性维度，还 是回撤控制维度均具备极大的配置价值。 投资建议：1）推荐黑电龙头的拐点性机会，海信视像受益于 ...

当然，并非所有的新兴岗位都能跻身"新职业"之列。自我国2018年启动新职业征集工作以来，认定标准始终都很严格，只有具备稳定从业规模、独立技 能体系的新生岗位，并通过社会公示与修订完善，才能最终"入编"。而"入编"仅仅是起点，职业标准制定、技能培训体系完善、社会认同度提升……之后的 每一步都是新职业走向成熟的必经之路。 从教AI识图的乡村女性，到定制诗与远方的旅拍师，一个个新职业不仅承载着我们普通人对美好生活的追求，更彰显了中国经济的韧性、创新力与包 容性。未来，随着经济的高质量发展和产业的转型升级，还会有更多的新职业涌现出来。期待政策、教育与社会协同发力，破除职业标准滞后、技能培训不 足等"成长的烦恼"，让新职业真正成为劳动者施展才华的舞台。 【责任编辑：陈戈辉 编辑：郭艳丽】 更加值得关注的是，此次新增工种数量创下近年新高，既印证了既有新职业的蓬勃发展，也凸显了技术迭代下职业分工的精细化。例如，随着生成式 AI在动画领域的应用，在"动画制作员"职业下增设"生成式人工智能动画制作员"工种，标志着技术与艺术的深度融合。 "我的爱好不仅能赚钱，还可能成为国家认证的新职业！"公示发布后，不少网友在社交平台留言"发现 ...

Group 1: Policy Support - Policy support is essential for restoring consumption, including increasing fiscal subsidies and implementing consumer-friendly policies like appliance subsidies and trade-in programs, which drove over 200 billion yuan in consumption in 2022 [3] - Improving income distribution through higher minimum wage standards and increased transfer payments can enhance the consumption capacity of residents, particularly low- and middle-income groups [3] - Optimizing the consumption environment by strengthening market regulation and combating counterfeit goods and price fraud can encourage consumer confidence and willingness to spend [3] Group 2: Scenario Innovation - Scenario innovation is a key driver for expanding consumption, with the rise of new consumption models integrating online and offline channels, such as live e-commerce and community group buying [6] - The example of Beijing SKP shows that digital transformation can lead to over 30% of sales coming from online channels, highlighting the potential of innovative consumption scenarios [6] - Projects like Chengdu's "Night Tour Jinjiang" have demonstrated the ability to boost surrounding consumption by over 40%, showcasing the significant potential of scenario innovation [6] Group 3: Consumption Upgrade - The shift in consumer behavior from survival-oriented to development and enjoyment-oriented consumption indicates a growing market for green, smart, and health-focused products [6] - The rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales, with a penetration rate of 25.6% in 2022, illustrates the substantial space for consumption upgrades [6] - Supporting the innovation and development of domestic brands, as evidenced by the rise of brands like Hongxing Erke and Baixiang, is crucial for enhancing international competitiveness [7] Group 4: Collaborative Efforts - Restoring and expanding consumption requires a collaborative effort from the government, enterprises, and consumers, with the government focusing on policy improvement and optimizing the business environment [10] - Enterprises are encouraged to innovate supply and enhance product service quality, while consumers should adopt a rational consumption mindset to maintain a healthy market order [10] - A multi-faceted approach with precise measures is expected to lead to a more prosperous consumption market, supporting the construction of a new development pattern [10]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has introduced a comprehensive financial policy package to stabilize the market and expectations, including a significant 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-loan policy aimed at promoting economic growth and structural transformation [1] Group 1: Financial Policy Measures - The new re-loan policy has an interest rate of 1.5% and targets 26 major financial institutions, with a maximum term of three years [1] - This initiative is part of a broader structural monetary policy framework, indicating a deepening of "precise drip irrigation" mechanisms to support short-term growth and long-term economic transformation [1] Group 2: Addressing Supply-Demand Imbalances - The financial tool aims to alleviate structural mismatches in supply and demand, particularly as service consumption spending is projected to reach 46% of total consumption by 2024 and 44% by Q1 2025 [2] - There is a significant supply gap in sectors like cultural tourism, high-end healthcare, and elderly care, which the new policy seeks to address through targeted liquidity injection [2] Group 3: Activation of the Silver Economy - With 220 million people aged 65 and above, representing 15.6% of the total population, there is a rapidly increasing demand for elderly care services [2] - The re-loan policy is designed to support the construction of elderly care facilities and adaptations for the elderly, thereby fostering new growth in the silver economy [2] Group 4: Systematic Policy Design - The policy features a three-tier transmission system that promotes financial support, consumption upgrades, and industrial structure optimization [3] - It employs a "first loan, then borrow" mechanism with 100% principal matching and a low interest rate, leveraging the monetary multiplier effect to attract social capital [3] Group 5: Coordinated Supply and Demand Efforts - The policy stimulates demand by lowering financing costs while guiding funds towards innovative consumption scenarios and service quality improvements on the supply side [3] - This dual approach aims to resolve structural contradictions in service consumption [3] Group 6: Long-term Strategic Goals - The policy is expected to stabilize employment in the service sector through short-term supply expansion while contributing to long-term strategies for aging population challenges [3] - It aims to achieve both "stabilizing growth" and "promoting transformation" objectives through proactive funding arrangements [3] Group 7: Implementation and Monitoring - Continuous tracking of the policy's industrial linkage effects and liquidity stratification among financial institutions is essential for effective implementation [4] - The policy requires a robust monitoring system to ensure alignment between fund flows and policy objectives, focusing on key indicators like the number of new elderly care beds [4] Group 8: Policy Coordination and Risk Management - Strengthening the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial, such as linking elderly care re-loans with special bonds [4] - Establishing a risk-sharing mechanism among government, society, and institutions is necessary to balance innovation and stability [4]

Core Insights - The sports industry in China is experiencing a shift towards professionalization and segmentation, with local brands gaining market share at the expense of traditional giants [1][2] - Anta Group's acquisition of Amer Sports and the subsequent success of Arc'teryx in China serves as a model for other brands aiming to replicate this success [1][3] - The high-end sports goods market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 18%-20% from 2025 to 2027, reaching over 200 billion yuan [3] Company Developments - HOKA has opened its first global brand experience center in Shanghai, featuring a comprehensive running research facility aimed at community engagement [4][6] - Norrøna, known as the "ancestor of Arc'teryx," has been introduced to the Chinese market, reflecting a broader trend of consumer demand for specialized and unique sports products [3][5] - Anta continues to expand its flagship stores, emphasizing the importance of enhancing store operational efficiency and creating a balanced omnichannel network [5][6] Market Trends - The Chinese consumer market is evolving, with a growing middle class seeking quality and specialized products rather than just brand logos [8][9] - The rise of niche and professional brands is attributed to the increasing demand for quality lifestyles among consumers, which is reshaping the outdoor, sports, and high-end apparel sectors [9][10] - Brands are focusing on community engagement and experiential retail, moving away from traditional sales models to create lifestyle-oriented shopping experiences [7][9]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that ST United is planning to acquire part or all of the equity of RunTian Industrial through a combination of issuing shares and cash payment, which constitutes a major asset restructuring without changing the actual controller of the listed company [1] - The transaction aims to enhance the core competitiveness and profitability of ST United, facilitating its transformation and upgrade [1][6] - RunTian Industrial is a leading player in the bottled water industry in China, known for its well-established brands and extensive distribution network across 22 provinces [2][5] Group 2 - The bottled water market in China is projected to exceed 310 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for 40.9% of the total soft drink market, driven by health-conscious consumer trends and population growth [3] - RunTian Industrial has a mature business model with stable performance and is recognized for its high-quality water sources and production capabilities [5][6] - The acquisition aligns with the strategic direction of ST United to become a comprehensive service provider in cultural tourism consumption, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of transitioning to a consumption-driven economy in China, highlighting the need for sustainable income growth, diverse consumer choices, and strong consumer confidence to achieve high-quality economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Consumption Demand and Supply - Consumption demand is driven by individual choices and purchasing power, which are linked to stable income levels. Short-term stimulus policies may only provide temporary relief without lasting improvements in purchasing power [4][5]. - The shift in consumption patterns indicates a move from goods to services, with service consumption projected to account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure by 2024, aligning with international trends [6][11]. Group 2: Government Role and Policy Recommendations - The government can enhance consumer choices by improving the institutional environment and optimizing the supply of goods and services. Employment-focused macro policies are essential for increasing disposable income and stabilizing consumer expectations [5][8]. - Strategies should include deregulation, expanding service supply, and reducing macro tax burdens to invest more in human capital, which is crucial for stabilizing consumption and achieving consumption upgrades [5][7]. Group 3: Enhancing Consumer Confidence and Income - The net wealth flow and disposable income of residents are influenced by initial and secondary distribution of national wealth, with a focus on reducing the macro tax burden to enhance consumer purchasing power [8][9]. - Addressing residents' debt and interest payments through multi-channel policies can significantly improve long-term consumption capacity [9]. Group 4: Investment in Human Capital - Social investment aimed at enhancing human capital is critical for economic growth and social progress. This includes investments in education, healthcare, and community development, which are essential for fostering new consumption patterns [10][11]. - The transition from material to human investment is necessary to support the growth of a consumption-oriented society, emphasizing the importance of continuous skill training and education for workers [10][11].

Group 1: Consumer Market Dynamics - Guangzhou's social retail sales are projected to reach 1,105.577 billion yuan in 2024, ranking it second only to the municipalities of Chongqing, Shanghai, and Beijing among 27 provincial capitals [1][4] - The city has a strong consumer base supported by a permanent population of 18.978 million, leading to a significant consumption capacity [1][4] - The intercity population flow between Guangzhou and neighboring cities like Foshan, Zhaoqing, and Qingyuan is creating a consumption "gravity field" [1][5] Group 2: Policy and Economic Strategies - Guangzhou has included the construction of an international consumption center city in its government work report for five consecutive years, aiming to enhance its consumption upgrade path [2][12] - Recent tax refund and visa exemption policies are expected to boost inbound consumption significantly [2][12] - The city is focusing on creating distinctive consumption IPs, such as the "New Eight Scenic Spots of Yangcheng," to attract more consumers [9][10] Group 3: Cross-City Consumption Trends - Data from Baidu's migration platform indicates that Foshan is the top destination for residents migrating from Guangzhou, consistently accounting for over 20% of the outflow [1][6] - During the May Day holiday, Foshan received 2.7818 million visitors, a 37.82% increase, largely due to the influx of tourists from Guangzhou [6][7] - The daily intercity travel volume between Guangzhou and Foshan reached 1.896 million, indicating a strong connection and mutual influence on consumption [11][12] Group 4: International Consumer Engagement - The recent Guangzhou International Trade Fair saw a 168% year-on-year increase in daily tax refund orders, highlighting the city's growing appeal to international visitors [12][15] - During the May Day holiday, inbound tourism orders surged by 130%, positioning Guangzhou among the top destinations for international travelers [12][15] - The city is enhancing its international consumer environment by optimizing customs procedures and expanding the acceptance of foreign payment methods [12][15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rise of new consumption trends in China, particularly among younger consumers, and contrasts them with traditional consumption patterns, emphasizing the sustainability and structural nature of these new demands [3][4][6]. Group 1: New Consumption Trends - New consumption trends, represented by products like blind boxes and cultural creative goods, are rapidly gaining popularity among younger consumers, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [3][4]. - The demand for new consumption is driven by both functional and emotional value, with consumers seeking products that enhance their quality of life and provide emotional satisfaction [5][6]. - The current economic environment has led to a structural change in consumer demand, where consumers are willing to pay more for products that offer higher functionality and emotional value [6][7]. Group 2: Traditional Consumption - Traditional consumption categories such as liquor, food, and household appliances continue to have stable demand due to their essential nature, although their growth may slow down as market saturation occurs [7][8]. - The value provided by traditional consumption remains significant, even if the growth rate declines, as consumers' expectations for a better quality of life persist [7][8]. - Traditional brands can learn from new consumption trends to better engage with younger consumers and adapt their marketing strategies [9][10]. Group 3: Sustainability of Consumption Trends - The sustainability of new consumption trends is supported by historical patterns, where similar trends have emerged in the past, indicating a long-term demand for collectible and emotionally resonant products [6][8]. - The success of new consumption products often depends on their social attributes and the ability to create a strong brand connection with consumers, which can lead to sustained growth [10][11]. - The potential for cross-generational appeal exists if the products maintain their relevance and adapt to changing consumer preferences over time [11][12]. Group 4: Mergers and Acquisitions in Consumer Brands - Mergers and acquisitions can enhance competitive strength in the consumer sector, especially in a stable market where companies seek new growth avenues [18][19]. - Successful acquisitions depend on the long-term profitability of the acquired business and the ability to integrate resources without compromising existing operations [20][21]. - The strategic alignment of acquired brands with the parent company's goals can lead to sustained growth and market expansion [19][21].