Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a significant reduction in bilateral tariff levels between China and the US, along with the establishment of a mechanism for ongoing economic and trade negotiations, which has led several overseas institutions to consider raising their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 [1] - The April trade data revealed a nearly 20% month-on-month drop in China's exports to the US, while total exports continued to grow, indicating China's resilience and ability to gain market share from other regions [1] - The A500 index, which tracks major A-share companies, showed strong performance with significant gains in stocks such as Dongfang Risen, Huada Gene, and Daqo New Energy, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1] Group 2 - The A50 index, which focuses on large-cap leading stocks across various industries, benefits from the trend of increasing market concentration due to supply-side reforms, making these stocks more attractive during earnings disclosure periods [2] - The shift of A-share market dynamics from being retail-driven to institutionally dominated is supported by the continuous inflow of long-term funds, such as pensions and insurance, which prefer low-volatility, high-dividend, and stable profit assets [2] - The long-term holding characteristics of institutional funds provide stability to the market, enhancing its resilience and long-term investment value [2]

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Lin Yifu emphasizes the potential for continued economic growth in China, despite facing challenges such as aging population and US-China trade tensions, suggesting a growth rate of 5% to 6% until 2035 and 3% to 4% from 2036 to 2049 [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Growth Potential - Lin Yifu highlights that China's growth potential can be measured by the gap in GDP per capita compared to the US, indicating that China has a significant "latecomer advantage" [3][4] - Historical data shows that from 1978 to 2024, China maintained an average growth rate of 8.3%, with GDP per capita reaching $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold [4][5] - Despite challenges, Lin Yifu believes that China's advantages in talent, domestic market, and complete industrial chain can support a sustained growth rate of around 5% [3][4] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Strategy - Lin Yifu discusses the historical context of China's economic growth, noting that from 1978 onwards, China shifted from a heavy industry focus to labor-intensive industries, leveraging its comparative advantages [4][8] - The narrative of "China collapse theory" is addressed, with Lin Yifu arguing that many developing countries failed due to misaligned economic strategies, while China succeeded through a gradual dual-track reform approach [5][6] - The book "Interpreting China's Economy" is presented as a comprehensive analysis of China's economic development, emphasizing its theoretical, historical, and practical coherence [7][8] Group 3: Publication and Impact - The book "Interpreting China's Economy" has been published in multiple languages and is considered essential reading for understanding China's economic landscape [7][10] - The upcoming edition, set for release in January 2025, will be the fifth version, reflecting ongoing developments in China's economy [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is demonstrating resilience and vitality, with a first-quarter GDP growth of 5.4%, indicating a positive trend despite a high base from the previous year [1][2]. Economic Performance - In the first quarter, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, which is an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth increased by 6.3 percentage points compared to the last quarter of the previous year, highlighting its role as a stabilizing force [2]. Innovation and Development - Significant growth in innovation sectors was noted, with production increases in servers (66.3%), new energy vehicles (45.4%), and 3D printing equipment (44.9%) [2]. - The application of large models in various fields, including electronics and automotive, is driving demand for computing and intelligent products [2]. Environmental and Social Progress - The average concentration of PM2.5 in cities decreased by 4.8% year-on-year, and the proportion of surface water quality in categories I-III improved to 91% [2]. - Rural residents' per capita disposable income increased by 6.5% year-on-year, surpassing the national average growth by 0.9 percentage points [2]. Trade and International Relations - The unilateral tariffs imposed by the U.S. are viewed as a violation of international trade rules and are expected to have a negative impact globally [3]. - China is committed to defending its rights and maintaining international fairness and justice in response to these tariffs, emphasizing cooperation with the majority of countries [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “slightly long” rating for Treasury bonds in the macro and financial sector [1] 2. Core View - The first - quarter economic data of China is good with GDP growing 5.4% year - on - year, better than the expected 5.2%. However, due to the US tariff increase, the Chinese economy will face challenges in the second quarter, and domestic incremental hedging policies may be introduced. Treasury futures may fluctuate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, Treasury futures opened higher across the board. After rising in the morning, they declined. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2506 fell 0.08%, the 10 - year T2506 fell 0.09%, the 5 - year TF2506 fell 0.11%, and the 2 - year TS2506 fell 0.05% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 2180 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 2455 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275 billion yuan [1] - **Funds market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.60% (1.63% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.72% (1.65% the previous day) [1] - **Cash bond market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The 2 - year yield rose 0.56 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.55%, the 10 - year rose 0.29 BP to 1.66%, and the 30 - year rose 0.48 BP to 1.93% [1] - **Treasury bond issuance**: On April 24, the Ministry of Finance issued three special Treasury bonds, including 165 billion yuan of 5 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.45%, 50 billion yuan of 20 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.98%, and 71 billion yuan of 30 - year bonds with a weighted winning yield of 1.88% [1] - **Sino - US trade**: As of April 24, there were no Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. The US should cancel all unilateral tariffs on China through equal dialogue [1] - **MLF operation**: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on April 25, with 100 billion yuan of MLF maturing this month, resulting in a net injection of 500 billion yuan [1][3] 3.3 Market Logic - The good first - quarter economic data is due to policy support and export rush. But the US tariff increase will pose challenges to the Chinese economy in the second quarter. The issuance of special Treasury bonds on April 24 did not significantly impact the funds market. The Wande All - A Index fell slightly on Thursday, and Treasury futures declined in the afternoon. The high Sino - US tariffs are difficult to resolve in the short - term [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 宏观经济 2025年4月16日 | 研究员： 刘洋 | | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F3063825 | | | 交易咨询证号：Z0016580 | | | 联系方式： | liuyang18036@greendh. | | com | | 证监许可【2011】1288号 成文时间：2025年4月16日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 首季开门红 二季迎挑战 摘要 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 一季度中国GDP同比增长5.4%，市场预期5.2%，去年四季度GD P同比增长5.4%。从环比看，今年一季度环比增长1.2%，延续了去年 三季度以来较好的环比增长，实现了开门红。1-3月份，全国固定资 产投资同比增长4.2%，市场预期4.0%，1-2月份为4.1%。分类来看， 1-3月广义基建投资（含电力）同比增长11.5%，市场预期增长7.2% ，1-2月增长9.95%。1-3月制造业投资同比增长9.1%，市场预期增长 8.9%，1-2月增长9.0%。1-3月份，全国房地产开发投资同比下降9. 9%，市场预期下降10.2%，1-2月下降9. ...