Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the Chinese government's ongoing efforts to address "involution" in various industries, particularly focusing on the steel sector, through policy reforms aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics and reducing excess capacity [1]. Policy Developments - Since 2025, multiple policies have been introduced to combat "involution," including the emphasis on market-oriented resource allocation and the elimination of local protectionism and market segmentation [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) proposed a plan on May 20 to address "involution" by intensifying efforts to dismantle local protection and market segmentation, as well as curbing the disorderly expansion of outdated production capacity [1]. - A report released by the NDRC on March 13, 2025, outlined revisions to capacity replacement implementation methods in industries like steel, aiming to facilitate the gradual exit of inefficient production capacity and maintain control over crude steel output [1]. Industry Implications - The policies are expected to accelerate capacity regulation, which could benefit the steel industry by improving the supply-demand balance [1]. - The only ETF tracking the steel industry, the Steel ETF (515210), follows the CSI Steel Index, which includes listed companies involved in steel manufacturing, processing, and related services, reflecting the overall performance of the steel sector [1]. - The index components cover upstream and downstream enterprises in the steel industry, showcasing significant industry concentration characteristics [1].

Group 1 - PVC futures main contract experienced fluctuations, reaching a peak of 4930.00 yuan, closing at 4920.00 yuan with a 0.70% increase [1] - Institutions predict PVC prices will remain weak due to increased supply and low demand, with expectations of low-level fluctuations [1][2] - The supply side is pressured by new production capacities from companies like Wanhua Chemical and Tianjin Bohua, while demand remains sluggish, particularly in the real estate sector [1][2] Group 2 - The Indian PVC BIS policy has been postponed for another six months, which may positively impact future PVC exports [2] - The market anticipates an improvement in the oversupply situation due to the impact of anti-involution policies and sentiment in the building materials sector [2] - The expected trading range for the PVC 2509 contract is between 4800 and 5100 yuan, indicating low-level fluctuations [2]

Group 1 - The UK automotive industry is experiencing its most severe production downturn in decades, with May's total output plummeting 32.8% year-on-year to 49,810 vehicles, marking the lowest level since 1949, excluding the pandemic year of 2020 [1] - Cumulative production for the first five months of the year is approximately 348,200 vehicles, a 12.9% decline year-on-year, representing the lowest level for the same period since 1953 [1] - The UK automotive sector is facing a "low capacity crisis," with factories operating below capacity and increasing costs, leading to a decline in global competitiveness [1][3] Group 2 - Exports of UK cars to the US have dropped by 55.4% year-on-year, while exports to the EU market have decreased by 22.5%, prompting some manufacturers to halt exports or restructure production [1] - The recent trade agreement between the UK and the US is unlikely to fundamentally alleviate external pressures on the UK automotive industry, as it imposes a 10% additional tariff on the first 100,000 cars exported to the US, with a 25% tariff on any excess [2] - The UK government has announced a ten-year industrial development strategy aimed at supporting advanced manufacturing and clean energy, with a goal for the automotive sector to rank among the top 15 globally by 2030 and contribute approximately £50 billion (about $67.94 billion) to the economy over the next decade [2] Group 3 - Experts express skepticism regarding the effectiveness and timing of the government's industrial strategy, particularly in supporting the transition to electric vehicle production, citing high energy costs compared to the EU average [3] - Without decisive government intervention, the UK risks becoming merely a limited engineering development market rather than a true automotive manufacturing hub [3] Group 4 - Industry insiders are increasingly looking towards emerging markets, especially China, which has a rapidly growing electric vehicle sector and complete supply chain integration capabilities [4] - Attracting Chinese automotive manufacturers to invest in the UK should be a key focus of government policy, although high energy costs remain a significant barrier to investment [4]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The "anti-involution" signal from policy levels is driving structural adjustments in the power equipment and new energy sectors, indicating a shift from disorderly competition to high-quality development [1] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing accelerated elimination of backward production capacity under policy guidance, with signs of price stabilization in silicon materials and glass [1] Group 2: EVE Energy's Global Expansion - EVE Energy has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for a 30GWh power battery factory in Hungary and a 38GWh energy storage battery project in Malaysia, marking a critical phase in its global layout [1] - The Hungary project targets local demand from European automakers, focusing on the production of 46 series cylindrical batteries, while the Malaysia project aims at the Southeast Asian energy storage market [1] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Financial Challenges - The shift in industry competition logic is evident as domestic lithium battery capacity faces significant overcapacity pressure, while policies in Europe and the U.S. favor localized supply, creating new opportunities [2] - EVE Energy's "China manufacturing + overseas base" model helps avoid trade barriers and shortens the distance to core customers, but the projected 2027 production timeline for the Hungary project coincides with competitors like CATL and Sunwoda, indicating potential market competition intensity [2] - As of March 2025, EVE Energy has cash reserves of 13.435 billion yuan, but the total investment demand for overseas projects far exceeds current reserves, with a debt-to-asset ratio rising to 62% [2] - The energy storage business's strategy of "exchanging price for volume" has led to a continuous decline in gross margins, with the average price of energy storage batteries expected to drop by 33% year-on-year in 2024 [2] Group 4: Photovoltaic Industry Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" actions are transitioning from initiatives to tangible implementations, with major domestic photovoltaic glass companies collectively announcing a 30% production cut, expected to reduce July output to 45GW, which has led to a rebound in glass prices [3] - The central financial committee has mandated the rectification of low-price disorderly competition, indicating that supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector have entered an execution phase [3] - The silicon material segment is becoming a focal point for capacity consolidation, with recent rumors of "silicon material storage" leading to price recovery, as the average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon N-type materials has risen to 34,700 yuan/ton, a 0.87% increase [3] - The new photovoltaic manufacturing industry standards raise the threshold for new capacity, further curbing inefficient expansion [3] - The competitive focus is shifting from price to technological differentiation, with advancements in large-size N-type cells and perovskite tandem technologies accelerating, allowing leading firms to achieve cost reductions and efficiency improvements [3] - The primary contradiction in the photovoltaic sector has shifted from insufficient demand to oversupply, with the potential for marginal improvements as policies and corporate actions drive capacity elimination [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) maintains good cost control under integrated operations, allowing for solid profitability, with projected net profits of 21.8 billion, 22.1 billion, and 24.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.0, 7.0, and 6.2 times [1] - The report indicates a downward adjustment in aluminum price assumptions for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 20,000, 20,000, and 21,000 yuan per ton, respectively, due to global tariff risks and an oversupply in the alumina market [1] - The company announced an expected 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, attributed to effective cost control measures [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand gap for electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue expanding, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and overseas production facing high construction costs and long timelines, leading to a supply growth rate of around 1% [2] - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is projected to increase by 2-3% due to the synergy from new energy, grid construction, and packaging consumption, indicating a trend of supply shortage [2] Group 3 - The average price of alumina in the second quarter was approximately 3,056 yuan per ton, down from 3,847 yuan per ton in the first quarter, with significant cost reductions expected from the company's self-supplied power generation [3] - The average price of thermal coal in the second quarter was 632 yuan per ton, a notable decrease from 721 yuan per ton in the first quarter, which is expected to lower the company's power generation costs significantly [3] Group 4 - The company is continuing its project to relocate production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan, with 240,000 tons of capacity already moved since April, and the remaining capacity expected to be relocated by the end of the year [4] - A new electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project in Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan, is scheduled to commence operations in July, with the pace of relocation dependent on local electricity conditions [4]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 9 日 今日焦点 | 爱旭股份 | | 600732 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 定增获批缓解资金压力，股价大涨后估值吸引 | | 评级: 中性↓ | | 力有限，下调至中性 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 14.63 | 目标价: 人民币 16.50↑ | 潜在涨幅: +12.8% | | 文昊, CPA | bob.wen@bocomgroup.com | | | 恒指技术走势 | | | --- | --- | | 恒生指数 | 24,148.07 | | 50 天平均线 | 23,825.43 | | 200 天平均线 | 22,414.89 | | 14 天强弱指数 | 55.31 | | 沽空 (百万港元) | 26,626 | | 资料来源： FactSet | | 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 公司定增 7 月 4 日获得上交所审核通过。公司 1Q25 资产负债 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the interest rates for business loans have dropped below 3%, leading to sustained pressure on banks' net interest margins and profitability [1] - Major banks like China Construction Bank and China Merchants Bank have introduced business loan products with minimum annual interest rates as low as 3%, and some products are even in the "2" range when combined with interest rate coupons [1] - The banking industry is facing challenges in credit issuance, and experts suggest that banks should seek breakthroughs through refined management, structural optimization, and comprehensive services [1] Group 2 - The momentum for companies listing in Hong Kong remains strong, with around 200 IPO applications currently in queue [2] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown good performance in the first half of the year, although major stock indices have recently experienced a slowdown in growth [2] - Analysts believe that ongoing regulatory reforms in Hong Kong will enhance market competitiveness and liquidity, leading to continued strong momentum in the new stock market [2] Group 3 - The brokerage sector is expected to maintain high growth in mid-year earnings, driven by a significant increase in new account openings and favorable market conditions in both bond and stock markets [3] - Analysts recommend focusing on mid-year earnings forecasts and themes like stablecoins as potential catalysts for investment in the brokerage sector [3] Group 4 - Insurance capital is expected to increase its allocation to equity assets in the second half of the year, focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend stocks and high-growth sectors like new productivity and new consumption [4] - The low-interest-rate environment has led to a consensus among insurance capital to enhance equity asset allocation as long-term bond yields struggle to meet liability costs [4] Group 5 - As of June 30, northbound funds held a total market value of 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 508.85 billion yuan from the previous quarter [5] - The top sectors for northbound fund holdings include power equipment, banking, electronics, food and beverage, and biomedicine [5] Group 6 - The gold market has experienced significant price fluctuations, with prices rising over 30% in the first half of the year, outperforming most asset classes [6] - Factors such as U.S. tariff policies, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases in emerging markets have supported gold prices [6] - Experts predict that while the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, short-term price movements may be influenced by U.S. macroeconomic data [6] Group 7 - Northbound funds have increased their holdings in popular sectors, reflecting a strategic shift in investment focus [7] - The overall increase in northbound fund holdings indicates a positive outlook on the recovery of the Chinese economy and trends in consumption and industrial upgrades [8] Group 8 - The Bond Connect program has significantly enhanced the international influence and attractiveness of China's bond market over the past eight years [9] - More than 80 of the world's top 100 asset management firms have entered the Chinese bond market, indicating active participation from foreign investors [9] Group 9 - The lithium battery industry is shifting from a focus on capacity expansion to value optimization, with a consensus emerging around avoiding price wars [10] - Industry experts emphasize the need for both market regulation and technological innovation to address challenges such as idle capacity and declining profits [10] Group 10 - The People's Bank of China has initiated a 500 billion yuan re-loan program to support service consumption and the elderly care industry, encouraging financial institutions to increase support in key areas [11] - The program aims to stimulate financial backing for sectors like accommodation, dining, entertainment, and education [11] Group 11 - The People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority have announced three measures to optimize cross-border investment mechanisms, enhancing the operational framework of Bond Connect [12] - These measures aim to facilitate more domestic investors in accessing offshore bond markets and improve liquidity management for foreign investors [12] Group 12 - The number of A-share companies intending to acquire IPO candidates has significantly increased, with 27 companies disclosing acquisition plans this year compared to 6 last year [13] - This surge is attributed to policy incentives, increased demand for mergers and acquisitions, and the valuation advantages of IPO candidates [13]

本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者胡雅文 北京报道 近期，亿纬锂能正式向港交所递交上市申请书，中信证券担任独家保荐人。这家成立24年的锂电池企 业，在招股书中明确提出，募集资金将重点投向匈牙利30GWh动力电池工厂及马来西亚38GWh储能电 池项目，加速全球化产能布局。《华夏时报》记者已就相关问题向亿纬锂能发送采访提纲，截至发稿未 得回复。 此前，亿纬锂能已经通过可转债实现大笔融资，截至2025年3月末，亿纬锂能的货币资金较上年末增长 48.21%，达134.35亿元，但海外项目的总投资需求仍远超当前现金储备。 此时正值全球储能市场爆发与贸易壁垒高筑的交汇期，头部电池企业正在全球布局海外工厂。鑫椤锂电 高级研究员龙志强告诉记者，"由于需要本地化，海外市场确实存在产能缺口。" 亿纬锂能选择赴港上市，或许也不仅是为了融资扩产，更试图在同行夹击中，更快打开国际市场的缺 口。 海外扩张 亿纬锂能在海外市场采取双线布局。根据招股书披露，此次港股IPO的核心募投项目直指两大海外基 地，一是匈牙利30GWh动力电池项目，计划2027年投产，主攻46系列大圆柱电池。其次，马来西亚三 期年产38GWh储能电池基地， ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7% to close at 3497.48 points, with a daily high of 3499.89 points [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 10588.39 points, reaching a peak of 10593.84 points [1] - The ChiNext Index saw a rise of 2.39%, closing at 2181.08 points, with a maximum of 2183.06 points [1] ETF Market Performance - The median return of stock ETFs was 1.08%, with the highest return from the China Asset Management ChiNext 50 ETF at 2.75% [2] - The Southern CSI New Energy ETF led the industry index ETFs with a return of 3.25% [2] - The top-performing thematic ETF was the China Tai CSCI Photovoltaic Industry ETF, achieving a return of 5.9% [2] ETF Gains and Losses - The top three ETFs by gain were: - Guotai CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (5.9%) - E Fund CSI Photovoltaic Industry ETF (5.57%) -浦银安盛中证光伏产业ETF (5.57%) [4][5] - The largest losses were seen in: - Taikang National Public Health and Medical Health ETF (-1.01%) - Fuguo CSI Green Power ETF (-0.63%) - E Fund CSI Green Power ETF (-0.55%) [4][5] ETF Fund Flows - The top three ETFs by inflow were: - Southern CSI 1000 ETF (¥778 million) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (¥696 million) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (¥538 million) [6][7] - The largest outflows were from: - Huatai-PB CSI A500 ETF (¥406 million) - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (¥351 million) - Huaxia CSI Animation Game ETF (¥237 million) [6][7] Financing and Margin Trading - The highest financing buy amounts were: - Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF (¥514 million) - E Fund ChiNext ETF (¥340 million) - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (¥249 million) [8][9] - The largest margin sell amounts were: - Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF (¥25.7 million) - Southern CSI 500 ETF (¥15.7 million) - Huaxia SSE 50 ETF (¥15.4 million) [8][9] Industry Insights - The photovoltaic industry is expected to reach a turning point, with signals indicating a shift away from internal competition, potentially accelerating supply-side capacity clearance and driving new technology breakthroughs [10] - Focus areas include "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration," with recommendations to monitor leading companies in sectors like polysilicon and photovoltaic glass, as well as advancements in BC batteries and perovskite battery commercial applications [10]

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new market value management regulations has led to significant developments in investor relations management, with 644 listed companies implementing value management systems or valuation enhancement plans since November 2022 [1] Group 1: Current State of Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - As of 2024, 492 central SOEs account for 9.14% of A-share listed companies but contribute 36.32% of total market value, 43.74% of revenue, and 59.03% of net profit, highlighting their critical role in the national economy [1] - There is a notable disparity within central SOEs, with companies valued over 50 billion yuan contributing nearly 80% of market value and over 90% of net profit, while smaller companies (under 10 billion yuan) represent 36.79% of the total but only 2.82% of market value [2] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations for Small and Medium-Sized SOEs - Small and medium-sized central SOEs face dual pressures on profitability and valuation, with challenges including outdated capital tools and insufficient innovation [2] - Recommendations for regulatory bodies include differentiated assessments focusing on R&D conversion rates for tech companies and flexible regulations for companies in economically challenged regions [2][3] Group 3: Strategies for Transformation - For tech companies, strategies include binding core technologies to teams, establishing innovation incubation mechanisms, and creating suitable incentive systems [3] - Traditional industries are encouraged to upgrade production capacity, integrate supply chains, and pursue asset securitization [3] - Public service companies should focus on value reconstruction, achieving ESG premiums, and transitioning to smart services [3] Group 4: Implementation of Capital Tools - Companies can create a collaborative matrix of capital tools such as buybacks, ESG disclosures, and supply chain integration to enhance market value management [4] - Successful case studies include improvements in R&D efficiency and valuation recovery through innovative practices [4] Group 5: Long-term Goals - Short-term goals include restoring the valuation of 30 underperforming companies to a price-to-book ratio of 1.0 and reducing the overall discount rate of central SOEs by 15% by 2026 [5] - Mid-term objectives aim for a 15% increase in buyback amounts and a 25% rise in institutional holdings in small and medium-sized SOEs by 2027 [5] - Long-term aspirations include achieving a 6% R&D intensity and surpassing 500 billion yuan in overall R&D investment by 2030, with a total market value of central SOEs exceeding 100 trillion yuan [5]