投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价承压运行 | 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢产业矛盾在累积，建筑钢厂提产，螺纹钢产量环比增加，供应迎来回升，关注后续增幅 情况。同时，螺纹高频需求指标延续下行，季节性走弱特征明显，弱势需求易抑制钢价。目前来 看，螺纹钢供应有所回升，而需求表现疲弱，供需矛盾在累积，钢价继续承压，相对利好则是库存 偏低，短期螺纹延续维持震荡寻底态势，关注今日钢联公布的产销数据情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **metal industry**, particularly **strategic metals** and **new materials** for the first half of 2025, highlighting the revaluation of strategic metals and opportunities in new materials due to technological iterations [1][3][29]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Strategic Metals Pricing**: By mid-2025, the pricing of strategic metals has fully reflected actual metal prices, influenced by global uncertainties and U.S. tariff policies [1][3]. - **Focus on Key Metals**: Emphasis on rare earth magnets, tungsten, and antimony, which have strong domestic resource control [1][3]. - **Export Controls**: China has implemented export controls on gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium to counter U.S. technology restrictions, leading to significant price increases in overseas markets compared to domestic prices [1][6][9][11]. - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: The supply-demand balance is expected to improve gradually, potentially shifting from surplus to shortage, which will drive prices upward [2][12]. Specific Metal Insights - **Tungsten**: - The tungsten quota has decreased for two consecutive years due to resource depletion, with demand linked to macroeconomic conditions and growth in sectors like 3C and military, pushing prices to historical highs [4][15][16]. - Current tungsten prices exceed 170,000 yuan per ton, with production challenges due to low ore grades [14][15]. - **Antimony**: - Antimony market is strong, with domestic supply accounting for over 60% of global production. The photovoltaic industry is a major driver of demand, expected to grow as installation capacity expands [4][17][18]. - **Molybdenum**: - Molybdenum prices are expected to remain high due to stable production and lack of new mining projects, with demand primarily from stainless steel and special steel applications [19][22]. New Materials Sector - **Growth Opportunities**: The electronic and military sectors are highlighted as key areas for growth in new materials, driven by advancements in AI and electronic components [5][23][24]. - **Technological Upgrades**: The demand for upgraded electronic materials is increasing, particularly for components like capacitors and inductors, which require smaller particle sizes and higher performance [23][24]. Geopolitical and Market Impacts - **China's Dominance**: China holds a significant advantage in the smelting of strategic metals, with over 90% of rare earth separation occurring domestically, despite U.S. technology restrictions [1][10][11][12]. - **U.S. Dependency**: The U.S. remains highly dependent on China for strategic metals, with significant portions of its tungsten, antimony, and rare earth needs met by Chinese imports [11]. Emerging Trends - **Military Sector Recovery**: The military industry is showing signs of recovery, particularly in aerospace, with increased demand for strategic metals [26]. - **New Applications**: The demand for tantalum, niobium, and titanium in high-temperature applications and aerospace is expected to grow, driven by advancements in technology and military needs [28]. Conclusion - The strategic metals market is poised for growth, supported by strong demand fundamentals and geopolitical factors. Companies in this sector, such as Jinchuan Group and Xiamen Tungsten, are recommended for their promising outlooks [29].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuates. Supply is rising while demand remains seasonally weak, keeping steel prices under pressure. However, low inventory eases immediate contradictions. Short - term, it will likely stay in low - level oscillations. Monitor steel mill production [4][38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price also fluctuates. Supply is at a high level, and although demand shows some improvement, its sustainability is uncertain. It will likely continue to oscillate at a low level, with demand being the key factor to watch [4][38]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price is strongly oscillating. Demand has improved slightly, but supply is high, and the improvement in demand may not last. The price is expected to oscillate, with the performance of finished products being a key factor [4][39]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - **Power Industry**: From January to May, grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan, a 19.8% year - on - year increase. Total installed power generation capacity was 3.61 billion kilowatts, with solar and wind power showing significant growth [6]. - **Construction Industry**: The total new contract value of the top five construction central enterprises in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan. China State Construction ranked first, with infrastructure business growing rapidly [7]. - **Iron Ore Mining**: Three new iron ore mining areas in Goa, India, were approved for operation, with different companies winning the mining rights and having various production capacities [8]. Spot Market - **Steel Products**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average, hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average, and prices of Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap are presented, along with their price changes. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is 130 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 940 yuan [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports, Tangshan iron concentrate, sea freight, SGX swaps, and the Platts Index are provided, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract is 2,995 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.03%. Trading volume decreased by 437,662 lots, and open interest decreased by 6,206 lots [13]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract is 3,112 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.16%. Trading volume decreased by 184,500 lots, and open interest increased by 28,968 lots [13]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract is 706.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50%. Trading volume decreased by 137,710 lots, and open interest increased by 4,370 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil [15][16][18]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts present the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as their seasonal and monthly changes [20][25][27]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts display the blast furnace operation rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operation rate of 87 independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent arc - furnace steel mills [30][33][35]. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply is rising while demand is seasonally weak. Although inventory is low, steel prices will continue to face pressure and oscillate at a low level [38]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply is high, and demand shows some improvement but its sustainability is uncertain. It will likely continue to oscillate at a low level [38]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand has improved slightly, but supply is high, and the improvement in demand may not last. The price is expected to oscillate [39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward trend in the short - term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,480 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption [6]. - Zinc prices have a large downward risk, but the start time of the market is uncertain [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [9]. - Nickel prices may fall, and it is advisable to short at high prices, with the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices may face selling pressure and need to be vigilant against weakening risks, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange main contract running in the range of 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. - The subsequent trend of the stainless - steel market depends on whether the downstream demand can start substantial restocking [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose slightly by 0.13% to 9,660 dollars/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,380 yuan/ton [2]. - Three major exchanges' inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, with SHFE inventory down 1,000 tons to 100,000 tons, LME inventory down 15,000 tons to 99,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 7,000 tons to 183,000 tons [2]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons, and copper spot imports had a large loss [2]. - LME cash/3M premium widened to 275 dollars/ton, and domestic basis quotes rose after the contract change [2]. - The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 920 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined [2]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and demand improved slightly [2]. Aluminum - Last week, LME aluminum rose 2.34% to 2,561 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract rose 0.12% [4]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, with social inventory at 449,000 tons (down 11,000 tons week - on - week) and bonded area inventory at 114,000 tons (down 5,000 tons week - on - week) [4]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 343,000 tons, and Cash/3M turned to a premium [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise slightly, and aluminum plant inventory declined slightly [4]. - The operating rate of aluminum products fluctuated and declined, with some products' operating rates falling and others remaining stable [4]. Lead - 3S fell 10 dollars to 1,982 dollars/ton, and the total position was 153,500 lots [6]. - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton [6]. - Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 287,400 tons [6]. - The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined significantly, and downstream consumption remained weak [6]. - The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the operating rate rose to a historical high of about 70%, while the profit of secondary lead remained low [6]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.06% to 21,678 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 259,300 lots [7]. - LME zinc 3S rose 8 dollars to 2,625 dollars/ton, and the total position was 206,400 lots [7]. - SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,030 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied [7]. - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 8,700 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons [7]. - LME zinc ingot inventory was 127,500 tons, and the cancelled warrant was 33,500 tons [7]. - The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, but the increase in social inventory is not obvious [7]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and domestic tin ore imports in June were expected to decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons [8]. - The raw material inventory of smelters in main production areas was generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance or production cuts [8]. - Terminal enterprises entered the seasonal off - season, and orders for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic declined [8]. - After tin prices rose to around 260,000 yuan/ton, downstream procurement willingness weakened [9]. - As of June 20, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets decreased by 42 tons to 8,905 tons [9]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The monthly output of refined nickel remained high [10]. - Spot demand was weak, and market trading was light [10]. - The visible inventory of domestic + LME increased by 6,165 tons to 241,000 tons [10]. - The supply of nickel ore was tight in the short - term due to the rainy season, but it was expected to ease after the rainy season [10]. - The price of nickel iron was weak in June, and some production lines switched to producing nickel matte [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,777 yuan, down 0.31% from the previous trading day and 1.09% for the week [12]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.17% [12]. - The LC2509 contract closed at 58,900 yuan, down 1.93% from the previous day and 1.51% for the week [12]. - The supply clearance was slow, and domestic lithium salt production returned to a high level [12]. - Downstream entered the traditional mid - year off - season, and the marginal increase in demand declined [12]. Alumina - On June 20, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.31% to 2,883 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading decreased by 12,000 lots to 435,000 lots [14]. - Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the Shandong spot price was at a premium to the 07 contract [15]. - The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at 367 dollars/ton, and the import window was closed [15]. - The futures warehouse receipt decreased by 6,300 tons to 42,900 tons [15]. - The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [15]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,505 yuan/ton, down 0.56% for the day, and the unilateral position increased by 5,358 lots to 279,900 lots [17]. - Spot prices in some markets decreased, and the futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 114,089 tons [17]. - Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, with 300 - series inventory at 692,100 tons (up 0.89% month - on - month) [17]. - The inventory of Qing Shan resources was high, suppressing steel prices, and downstream users were in a wait - and - see state [17]. - The industry faced cost pressure, and steel mills, agents, and traders were in a loss - making state [17].

期货热点追踪 橡胶期货价格下跌，需求进入淡季，泰国雨季干扰割胶，市场供需格局生变？后续价格能否稳住？ 相关链接 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of hot - rolled coils has improved, and the inventory has been reduced again. However, the supply remains at a high level and the sustainability of demand is questionable. The fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will continue to fluctuate at a low level, with emphasis on demand performance [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of hot - rolled coils is 325.45 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.80 tons, remaining at a high level this year, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21 percentage points [2][8] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is 330.69 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10.81 tons, returning to a relatively high level this year, but the high - frequency transactions are weakening. The fundamentals of the main downstream cold - rolled products and the peripheral risks have eased, providing support for the demand of hot - rolled coils [2][8] Inventory - The total inventory of hot - rolled coils is 340.17 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.24 tons. The factory inventory is 76.52 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 tons. The social inventory is 263.65 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.23 tons [2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：PTA自身前期检修装置陆续重启，加之新装置投产，供需格局转弱，不过原油在中东地缘局势影响宽幅波动，预计短 期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡运行，基差方面，短期内现货市场货源偏紧，且部分聚酯工厂刚需补货，现货基差走强。关注 中东局势对油价的影响及聚酯负荷波动。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货上涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差回落。贸易商商谈为主。6月货主流在09+270成交，价格商谈 区间在5130~5250附近。7月中上在09+240~270有成交。今日主流现货基差在09+270。中性 2、基差：现货5175，09 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar continued to fluctuate, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, hot - rolled coil supply is stable, but the pressure has not eased. Demand has improved, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The fundamentals are weakly stable, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is that overseas risks are easing. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.43%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to be weak, and the futures price discount is continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - From January to May 2025, China's excavator production was 140,575 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. In May 2025, the production was 25,845 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. For tractors, in May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 7,165 units, 17,451 units, and 11,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 32.8%, 13.3%, and 8.3%. From January to May 2025, the production of large, medium, and small tractors was 58,725 units, 121,414 units, and 54,000 units respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 2.4%, 8.0%, and 18.2%. Overall, from January to May 2025, the production of major mechanical equipment in China varied. Excavators, metal - cutting machine tools, and metal - forming machine tools had the most obvious production growth, with year - on - year increases of 13.9%, 13.3%, and 11.3% respectively; the production of small tractors decreased significantly, with a year - on - year decrease of 18.2% [6]. - After the end of the air - conditioning cold year, the export production schedule for July decreased by 17.7%. In April, the traditional sales peak season started, and enterprises significantly increased resource investment, leading to a rapid increase in retail data. The 618 promotion started on May 13th, and combined with the trade - in policy, retail data increased again. According to Aowei Cloud Network's aggregated data, in May, air - conditioning retail sales increased by 30.4% online and 27.1% offline. The high retail growth drove the acceleration of enterprise production and a high base in the second quarter. In July 2025, the production schedule for household air - conditioners was 14.31 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Among them, the domestic sales production schedule was 8.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7.4%; the export production schedule was 5.49 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7% [7]. - According to National Bureau of Statistics data, in May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.545 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, the cumulative crude steel production was 431.631 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In terms of provincial and municipal data, from January to May 2025, Hebei ranked first with a production of 92.8269 million tons; Jiangsu ranked second with a production of 52.49 million tons; Shandong ranked third with a production of 30.3332 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,060, 3,200, and 3,219 respectively, with changes of - 10, 0, and - 5. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,100, and 3,229 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 10, and - 4. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,130 with a change of 30. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130 with no change, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 930 with a change of - 40 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 710 with a change of 1; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 707 with a change of - 3. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil were 9.62 and 25.07 respectively, with changes of - 0.91 and - 0.80. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.17 with a change of - 0.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 with a change of - 0.35 [9]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,986, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,002, a low of 2,975, a trading volume of 1,180,366 (a decrease of 146,607), and an open interest of 2,132,733 (a decrease of 1,210) [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a daily increase of 0.13%, a high of 3,120, a low of 3,092, a trading volume of 398,637 (a decrease of 85,432), and an open interest of 1,488,632 (a decrease of 13,154) [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 698.0, with a daily increase of 0.43%, a high of 703.0, a low of 691.5, a trading volume of 392,127 (a decrease of 46,650), and an open interest of 678,221 (a decrease of 6,843) [11]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mills + social inventories), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventories, as well as charts on steel mill production such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, proportion of profitable steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit and loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [13][18][28]. 3.5后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continued to decline. Weekly production decreased by 108,900 tons, and supply continued to contract to the lowest level of the year, leading to inventory reduction and providing support for steel prices. However, due to good profit per ton of the product, the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. Meanwhile, rebar demand continued to weaken seasonally, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 124,000 tons, and high - frequency daily transactions were lower than normal, both remaining at low levels in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still likely to suppress steel prices. Overall, the situation of weak supply and demand for rebar remains unchanged, with poor fundamentals during the off - season, putting continued pressure on steel prices. However, low inventory levels mean there are few real - world contradictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern continued to weaken. Although mill maintenance led to a decrease in hot - rolled coil production, with a weekly decrease of 41,000 tons, it was still at a high level of the year, and mills mainly focused on protecting plate production, so the supply pressure was difficult to relieve. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand was weakly stable, with weekly apparent demand decreasing by 10,400 tons, and high - frequency transactions rebounded at a low level, mainly due to the high - level production of the downstream cold - rolling industry. However, industrial contradictions were still accumulating, and attention should be paid to the pressure caused by the intensification of contradictions. The relatively positive factor was the progress in China - US trade negotiations and the easing of overseas risks. In short, the supply of hot - rolled coil was stable, the pressure was not relieved, demand improved but its sustainability needed to be tracked, the fundamentals were weakly stable, prices continued to be under pressure, and the relatively positive factor was the easing of overseas risks. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [35]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern weakened as expected, and inventory continued to accumulate. During the off - season, steel mill production weakened, and the terminal consumption of ore continued to decline. Last week, the average daily hot metal production and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased month - on - month, but the decline was relatively limited. Considering the obvious weakening of steel market demand during the off - season, there was still room for further reduction in the future, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports decreased, and the shipments from overseas miners also decreased but remained at a high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume was expected to increase again, and the domestic ore supply was weakly stable. Overall, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remained unchanged, the fundamentals of iron ore continued to be weak, and the futures price discount was continuously being repaired. Under the dominance of negative factors, it is expected that iron ore prices will continue to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in hot metal production [36].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For copper, the global supply - demand pattern remains tight due to pre - emptive US demand. The opening of the domestic refined copper export window since June supports copper prices before US tariffs are imposed, but weak tariff implementation may reduce copper trade demand [1][2][3]. - For protein粕, the RVO obligation of the US EPA is unexpectedly positive, and international vegetable oils are reasonably priced high in the short term. Soybean prices are mainly oscillating, and the strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 is considered [4][5][6]. - For petroleum asphalt, the asphalt futures price maintains a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to crude oil cost support. In the long run, the asphalt fundamentals are weak in summer, and the asphalt cracking spread continues to weaken [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Metal and New Energy Materials Sector - Copper - **Intraday View**: 78200 - 79200 [1] - **Medium - term View**: 60000 - 90000 [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt an oscillating operation approach [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Macro**: The US Congressional Budget Office indicates that the "big and beautiful" legal system will increase the fiscal deficit by $2.8 trillion [1]. - **Supply**: In May 2025, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. The supply of recycled copper raw materials is tightening. The Kakula copper mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has复产, but the 2025 production plan is reduced. The Adani copper smelter in India has a risk of canceling the long - term supply contract [1]. - **Demand**: In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 23.6% year - on - year; imports decreased by 16.6% year - on - year. The overall market for refined copper rods is weak, and the new orders for enameled wire are decreasing. The US may impose a 25% tariff on imported copper [2]. - **Inventory**: On June 18, LME copper inventory decreased by 200 tons to 107,400 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 7,527 tons to 47,000 tons, and international copper warehouse receipts decreased by 582 tons to 4,162 tons [2]. Livestock, Poultry and Soft Commodities Sector - Protein粕 - **Intraday View**: Soybean meal 2509 continues to oscillate between [3000, 3100] [4] - **Medium - term View**: Soybean meal 2509 builds a bottom in the range of [2900, 3100] [4] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money call options on soybean oil 2509 - C - 8400 [4] - **Core Logic**: - **Weather and Market Impact**: In late June, soybean meal 2509 follows US soybeans into an oscillating market due to uncertain weather in US and Canadian rapeseed production areas. The Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US EPA's RVO proposal have boosted soybean oil prices [4]. - **International Soybean Situation**: The good condition of US soybeans is negative for far - month contracts, but the strength of vegetable oils drives up US soybean prices, resulting in a mixed situation for soybean meal. The expected soybean arrivals in June, July, and August are 12 million tons, 9.5 million tons, and 8.5 million tons respectively [5]. - **Rapeseed Situation**: Canadian rapeseed planting is faster than usual, which is negative for far - month contracts. ICE rapeseed follows the rise of US soybean oil. The estimated global rapeseed production in the 25/26 year is 89.77 million tons [5]. Energy and Chemicals Sector - Petroleum Asphalt - **Intraday View**: High - level oscillation [7] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [7] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting asphalt and going long on high - sulfur fuel oil spread [7] - **Core Logic**: - **Supply**: This week, the losses of local refineries in asphalt production have deepened, and the domestic asphalt refinery operating rate has decreased. As of June 17, the weekly asphalt production was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons [7]. - **Demand**: In the north, demand is restricted by high prices, and trading has declined slightly; in the south, demand is weak due to rainfall. The operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises is low. Asphalt refinery inventory has decreased, while social inventory is relatively stable [8]. - **Cost**: Geopolitical premiums support high oil prices in the short term. In the long run, oil prices will decline from high levels due to supply growth and weakening demand [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：以色列袭击伊朗，油价大幅上涨拉动PTA价格上行，但PTA自身前期检修装置陆续重启，叠加新装置投产，供需格局转 弱，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，基差方面，短期内现货市场货源偏紧，现货基差偏强运行，伴随供应回归后续有 回落预期。关注伊以局势发展。 1、基本面：PTA盘面短期震荡偏强，主要因瓶片7月集中减产，TA基差依旧偏强。 基本面来看，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货 基差走强，6月货在09 + 280附近商谈，PTA现货加工费224元/吨（-85），PTA09盘面加工费344元/吨（+4）。中性 2、基差： ...