黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较前一 日持平，10 合约基差 121（+3）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日，三部门发 布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市场仍在期 待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税，市场预期 改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局 有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回 落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍低于电炉 谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改 善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚 可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背景下，预计 价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，盘面向上回调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 765 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 101.25 美元/吨（+2.65）， 月均 98.86 美元/吨。PBF 基差 95 元/吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西 ...

Group 1 - Styrene futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 7492.00 yuan, with a current price of 7340.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.05% [1] - New Lake Futures indicates a shift in market sentiment towards optimism, driven by macroeconomic signals and a slight increase in production prices [2] - The supply-demand balance for styrene is currently weak, with expectations of gradual improvement in operating rates in May and June, but potential volatility remains [2] Group 2 - Wenkang Futures notes that the cost of pure benzene is rising, with prices at 5585 yuan/ton in Shandong and 5975 yuan/ton in East China, indicating upward pressure on styrene prices [3] - The absolute inventory of styrene at ports is low, and macroeconomic improvements are contributing to the price rebound [3] - The operational suggestion is to treat the current rebound cautiously, as downstream production plans are weakening [3]

黑色：低估值弱驱动 价格震荡运行 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/5/12 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 张佩云 执业编号：F03090752 投资咨询号：Z0019837 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 白天霖 执业编号：F03138690 主要观点 上周螺纹钢价格偏弱运行，现货与期货跌幅相当，基差窄幅波动。宏观方面，5月7日，三部门发布一揽子金融政 策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过盘面高开低走，市场仍在期待财政政策发力，当地时间5月10日上午，中美 经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦开始举行；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局有转差迹象， 当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回落还需进一步观察。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经低于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计中 美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需 求季节性下滑，市场预期偏弱，低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。 交易策略 观望或者短线交易。 01 螺纹 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fell due to continuous supply - side pressure and the possibility of further easing of geopolitical risks, increasing market concerns about a loose supply - demand pattern. After a short - term rebound, oil prices will continue to be under pressure and mainly fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis. The suggested fluctuation ranges are [57, 67] for WTI, [59, 70] for Brent, and [450, 510] for SC [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the futures price follows the fundamentals. The early arrival of the agricultural fertilizer - preparation peak season and industrial orders provide certain support, and the delayed resumption of maintenance devices supports the supply in the short - term. If the export policy is relaxed beyond expectations, the upside space of the futures price will expand. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy volatility on the options side [30][32]. Styrene - The pure benzene market price stopped falling and rebounded, but the weak supply - demand structure has not changed. The styrene market rose and then fell, with port inventories continuing to decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is under pressure. It is recommended to short styrene at high levels [35][38]. Methanol - The inland methanol price is stable, but there is downward pressure on valuation. After the spring maintenance, production has recovered, and downstream profits are differentiated. The port has entered an inventory - accumulation cycle, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short the MA09 contract at high levels [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels. In the short - term, wait and see the short - term rebound. For PVC, the supply - demand surplus is obvious, and it is recommended to short at high levels, but beware of price rebounds due to policy stimuli [46][51]. Polyolefins - For LLDPE, the supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but beware of a significant decline in demand. It is recommended to hold short positions until the price reaches a low level. For PP, the supply pressure eases slightly in the second - quarter maintenance season, but the long - term outlook is weak, with a downward risk [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, it is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term, with the PX09 fluctuating in the 6000 - 6400 range. For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, and the TA09 is expected to fluctuate in the 4200 - 4500 range. For MEG, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the EG09 in the 4050 - 4300 range. For short - fiber, follow the raw materials and look for opportunities to expand the processing fee of PF06. For bottle - chips, the absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee is supported to some extent [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil was at $61.08 on February 8th and $61.12 on May 7th, with a decline of $0.04 (- 0.07%); WTI was at $58.07 on both dates. The spreads of various crude oil varieties also changed to different degrees [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending May 2, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value. Refinery utilization rate was 89%. There were changes in inventory, production, import, and export data of various oil products [5]. Urea - **Futures and Spot**: Futures contract prices showed different changes, with the 01 - 05 contract spread decreasing by 8.26%. Spot prices in different regions increased slightly. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.44%, and the factory - inventory decreased by 10.58% on a weekly basis [30][32]. Styrene - **Upstream**: Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and other upstream raw material prices changed. Pure benzene prices rose, and the import profit was - 163.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot and futures prices rose, and the EB2506 increased by 1.5%. The port inventory of styrene decreased by 7.0% [36][38]. Methanol - **Price and Spread**: Futures contract prices increased, and the MA2505 - 2509 spread increased by 7.25%. The port - inland regional spread increased. - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: The enterprise inventory increased by 7.26%, and the port inventory increased by 2.69%. The upstream and downstream operating rates showed different changes [42]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot had small changes. The SH2505 increased by 2.0%, and the V2505 increased by 0.7%. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends [46][49][50]. Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PE and PP futures contracts increased slightly. The L2505 - 2509 spread decreased by 10.70%. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 21.31%, and PP enterprise inventory increased by 19.76%. The operating rates of PE and PP showed different changes [54]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price and Spread**: Downstream polyester product prices such as POY, FDY, and DTY increased. PX - related prices and spreads also changed. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: MEG port inventory decreased by 1.3%, and the operating rates of various products in the polyester industry chain changed to different degrees [58].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that investors should remain cautious in the bond market, be optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider long - positions in gold futures. For different commodities, it provides specific trading strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [6][8][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a mixed performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures had different price changes. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations on April 30, with a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan. In April, the manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing and composite PMIs remained in the expansion zone [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but the current yield is relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies. Tariffs may be adjusted repeatedly, so investors are advised to remain cautious, expecting increased volatility [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risks increase, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is policy - hedging space. The report is optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering long - positions in stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. In April, the US non - farm payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate remained stable. The US GDP in the first quarter declined [10]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, potential central bank policy easing, and tariff impacts are expected to drive up gold prices. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals continues, and investors are advised to buy gold futures on dips [10][11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation is relatively high among black - series products, and the price has support at the previous low. Investors can look for long - buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - losses [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke demand has improved slightly, but the possibility of price increases is low. The price may test the previous low again. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On April 30, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while demand is weak. With the arrival of the peak season for steel demand, the supply - demand situation is improving. Investors can consider call options for manganese - silicon and exiting short - positions for silicon - iron [19][20]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil prices dropped significantly. The CFTC data shows changes in WTI crude oil and natural gas futures positions. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil supply in June. The report suggests waiting and seeing for crude oil futures [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil prices followed crude oil and dropped significantly. The market structure of high - sulfur fuel oil has slightly improved. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the expected signing of tariff agreements have different impacts on fuel oil prices. The report suggests short - selling fuel oil futures [23][24]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures prices declined. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and the cost has weakened. The short - term trend is expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures prices showed mixed results. The expected increase in global supply and the impact of tariffs on demand are expected to keep the price in a weak oscillation [27][28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures prices declined. Supply pressure has eased marginally, demand is weakly recovering, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [29][30]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea futures prices increased. The approaching summer fertilizer - preparation period may increase demand, but supply elasticity is high. The potential Indian tender and domestic export - policy adjustment may affect the price. Investors should pay attention to export changes [31][32]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, PX futures prices declined. PX device maintenance has reduced the load, and downstream PTA demand has improved. The short - term crude - oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate with the cost [33]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures prices declined. The planned maintenance of PTA devices and the expected improvement in exports may provide some support, but the external crude - oil price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate [34]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures prices declined. The restart of coal - based devices and high inventory limit the price rebound. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [35]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures prices declined. The supply load is high, downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [36]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures prices increased. The raw - material price is under pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals lack drivers. The price is expected to follow the cost and oscillate [37]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda - ash futures prices declined. Device maintenance in May may cause short - term price adjustments, but the supply is still high, and the market is weak in the short term [38][39]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass futures prices declined. The production line is at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is weak. The post - holiday market sentiment is expected to be weak [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic - soda futures prices increased. The demand from the alumina and non - alumina industries is limited, but device maintenance in May may provide some drivers [41][42]. - **Paper Pulp**: On the previous trading day, paper - pulp futures prices declined. Inventory is accumulating, supply is increasing, and market trading is light. The price reflects a pessimistic outlook [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium - carbonate futures prices declined. The supply is high, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weak [44][45]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures prices dropped significantly. Although the ICSG expects a copper supply surplus, the demand may recover after the tariff friction eases. The report suggests long - buying Shanghai copper futures [46][47]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, LME tin prices increased. The复产 of major mines may ease the supply shortage, but the impact of Sino - US trade on the downstream electronics market remains. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [48]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, LME nickel prices increased. The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost provides support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The demand may weaken in the off - season, and the market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation. Investors are advised to wait and see [49]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: On the previous trading day, industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the market is pessimistic about the future demand. The prices are expected to be weak [50][51]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On April 30, soybean - meal futures prices declined, and soybean - oil futures prices increased. The smooth progress of US soybean planting and the Brazilian soybean harvest increase supply. The demand for soybean oil and soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. The report suggests waiting and seeing for soybean - meal futures and considering call options for soybean - oil futures at the bottom [52][53]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm - oil prices declined. The inventory may increase, and the domestic import volume has changed. The report suggests considering the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [54][55][56]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices declined. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil has changed. The report suggests considering long - buying rapeseed meal after a pullback [57][58]. - **Cotton**: During the holiday, the external cotton price increased. The planting progress in the US and China has been reported. The high - level tariffs between China and the US affect demand, and the domestic downstream demand is weak. The report suggests waiting and seeing [59][60][61]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, the external raw - sugar price fluctuated slightly. Brazil is entering the production - acceleration period, and the Indian sugar production is lower than expected. The domestic sugar inventory is neutral, and the import volume is low. The report suggests waiting and seeing [62][63][64]. - **Apples**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures prices oscillated. The inventory is low, and the consumption is good. The new - year production is expected to increase. The report suggests waiting and seeing [66][67][68]. - **Pigs**: During the holiday, the pig price increased first and then stabilized. The supply is expected to increase after the holiday, and the demand may weaken. The price is expected to oscillate weakly first and then strengthen. The report suggests waiting and seeing [69][70][71]. - **Eggs**: During the holiday, the egg price increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase in May, and the price may decline after the Dragon Boat Festival. The report suggests holding reverse spreads [72]. - **Corn and Starch**: On April 30, corn and corn - starch futures prices increased. The US corn planting is progressing smoothly, and the Brazilian corn production is expected to increase. The domestic corn supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is slightly increasing. Corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. The report suggests waiting and seeing [73][74]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures prices declined. The supply is affected by holidays and weather, and the demand from the real - estate sector is weak. The market has no obvious drivers, and the price is expected to be weak [75][76][77].

2025 年 4 月 27 日 锰硅：成本支撑减弱，锰硅偏弱震荡 硅铁：黑色板块共振，硅铁偏弱震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei029984@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan029838@gtjas.com | 报告导读： 【走势回顾】本周硅铁 2506 合约走势震荡偏弱，收于 5,640 元/吨，周环比变化-42 元/吨，成交 523,015 手，持仓 168,404 手，持仓环比变化-57,792 手。本周锰硅 2509 合约价格走势震荡偏弱， 收于 5,796 元/吨，周环比变化-100 元/吨，成交 226995 手，持仓 87763 手，持仓环比变化 54,077 手。 【供应】硅铁本周产量为 9.89 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.14 万吨，环比变化率为-1.4%。周开工 率为 30.91%，较上周变动-1.49 个百分点。锰硅本周产量 18.61 万吨，产量较上周环比变化-0.26 万吨，环比变化率为-1.4%，周开工率为 41.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure in the upstream and midstream persists, continuing to test the demand [2] - For glass, the actual cold - repair production lines in the first quarter were slightly lower than expected, and the ignition rhythm was relatively fast. The market still has differences on long - term demand. For the 05 contract, the game continues. As the delivery approaches, the price trend is close to Hubei, the price low - lying area. Attention should be paid to the spot changes and production - sales situation in mid - to late April [4] - For纯碱, although there may be short - term maintenance that causes periodic fluctuations in production, it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern. The market remains in the consensus of medium - to long - term oversupply expectations, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious pressure [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Supply - The current daily melting volume is 158,000 tons, remaining stable. In April, there was 1 new ignition production line, Hebei Great Wall Line 4 with a daily output of 700 tons (ignited on April 12, as planned) [3] Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.203 million heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 554,000 heavy cases, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84%, and a year - on - year increase of 8%. The inventory days are 29.2 days, a decrease of 0.3 days compared with the previous period. It has been in the fourth week of continuous inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction slope has narrowed. The production - sales rate weakened significantly in the second half of the week, which may be related to the weather. The average weekly overall production - sales rate is around 105. Currently, the spot - futures inventory in Shahe is about 160,000 - 170,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase, and the upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is relatively high [3] Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are as follows: - 176 yuan for natural gas, + 117 yuan for coal - made gas, and + 26 yuan for petroleum coke [3] Demand - As of March 31, the national deep - processing order days are 8.2 days (+ 0.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 2.5%, and a year - on - year decrease of 33.3%; the deep - processing raw material inventory is 9.8 days (+ 1.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 14%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.0% [3] Strategy - The delivery factory warehouse of glass expanded by 100,000 tons within the week. Seasonally, the production - sales data performed well around the Tomb - sweeping Festival. Currently, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are not low, and there is still pressure on shipments. It is necessary to verify the improvement degree of real demand. From the production and inventory, the apparent demand of float glass from January to March is expected to decline by 7%. Although the demand has improved month - on - month, the overall improvement range is very limited [4] 纯碱 Supply - The weekly output is 713,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 22,800 tons), including 323,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 2,600 tons) and 389,100 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 20,100 tons). Jinshan No. 2 Plant is under maintenance, affecting the daily output of 5,000 tons. Tianjin Alkali Plant is expected to be under maintenance in early April, and Jiangsu Shilian, Xuzhou Fengcheng, and Jiangsu Huachang may be under maintenance in May. Currently, the daily output remains stable above 100,000 tons [5] Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.693 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8,400 tons (an increase of 9,100 tons for light soda ash and a decrease of 17,500 tons for heavy soda ash). The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 402,700 tons (a decrease of 12,800 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.0954 million tons, and the inventory fluctuates at a high level [5] Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the combined - soda process (double - ton) is + 164 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is - 87 yuan/ton [5] Demand - Driven by the rush - installation wave, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to increase. In April, there were 2 new ignition photovoltaic glass production lines (with a total daily output of 2,500 tons). Coupled with the continuous improvement of the kiln - blocking phenomenon, the current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased to 96,000 tons. The finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass continues to decline month - on - month, but the slope has slowed down. The ignition and cold - repair of float glass coexist, and the daily melting volume fluctuates at a low level. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash, deduced from float glass and photovoltaic glass, has improved month - on - month, and the upstream and mid - stream inventories remain at a high level [5] Strategy - There is relatively little maintenance in April, and the daily output may run at a high level. There is an expectation of mass production for new capacities. As the supply remains at a high level, the balance of heavy soda ash deduced from rigid demand continues to be in surplus. In general, even if short - term maintenance causes periodic fluctuations in production, it does not affect the overall supply - demand pattern. The market remains in the consensus of medium - to long - term oversupply expectations, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious pressure. On the demand side, the rigid demand deduced from the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has slightly improved month - on - month, and the pressure on the finished - product inventory of photovoltaic glass has been alleviated. The further downward driving force for the price of soda ash lies in the continuous accumulation of inventory and the price - cut actions of alkali plants [6]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for aluminum prices to rise due to the resumption of Russian aluminum exports to the U.S., which may widen the domestic supply gap [4][3] - Copper prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, with a focus on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and tariff developments [4][5] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, with expectations of a price range between 70,000 to 80,000 yuan/ton for the year [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important information indicates that U.S. initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, and China's manufacturing PMI for February surpassed forecasts [12] - Market performance shows that the non-ferrous metal sector underperformed, with a decline of 2.32% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [15][16] - Valuation changes reveal that the non-ferrous metal sector's PE_TTM is 19.18, with a decrease of 0.49, while the PB_LF is 2.08, down by 0.05 [19][20] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices saw a decline of 1.63% for LME and 0.23% for SHFE, with inventories showing mixed trends [22][25] - The copper smelting profit margin is reported at -1,916 yuan/ton, indicating a narrowing loss [25][27] Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell by 2.78%, while SHFE prices decreased by 1.08%, with inventory levels showing an increase [28] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises decreased by 5.37% to 4,213 yuan/ton [28] Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices experienced a decline, with smelting margins showing a narrowing loss [36][39] Tin and Nickel - Tin prices decreased, while nickel prices saw a slight increase, with domestic nickel iron enterprises reporting expanded profits [43][48] 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 1.25% to 75,200 yuan/ton, with significant inventory accumulation impacting market dynamics [51] - The profit margins for lithium smelting are reported as negative, indicating challenging market conditions [51] Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with domestic smelting margins rising significantly, reflecting improved profitability [57]