Core Viewpoint - Domestic gold prices continue to rise, with a slight increase compared to the previous day, maintaining around 12 CNY per gram, driven by market conditions and geopolitical tensions [1][6]. Domestic Gold Prices - Lao Miao Gold price increased by 13 CNY per gram, reaching 1248 CNY per gram, marking a new high among gold stores [1]. - Shanghai China Gold price rose by 12 CNY per gram, quoted at 1122 CNY per gram, remaining the lowest among major brands [1]. - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices is 126 CNY per gram, which is expanding [1]. - Other notable gold prices include: - Liufu Gold: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Chow Tai Fook: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Zhou Liufu: 1171 CNY per gram, up by 11 CNY - Jin Zun Gold: 1247 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY - Lao Feng Xiang: 1245 CNY per gram, up by 15 CNY - Cai Bai: 1170 CNY per gram, up by 12 CNY [1][2]. Platinum Prices - Platinum prices have also seen a slight increase, with Zhou Tai Fook's platinum jewelry rising by 3 CNY per gram, now at 674 CNY per gram [3]. Gold Recycling Prices - Gold recycling prices have surged by 9.3 CNY per gram, with significant price variations among brands: - Cai Bai: 957.20 CNY per gram - Zhou Sheng Sheng: 946.50 CNY per gram - Zhou Tai Fook: 955.80 CNY per gram - Lao Feng Xiang: 964.70 CNY per gram [3][4]. International Gold Prices - The spot gold price reached a historical high of 4217.90 USD per ounce, closing at 4206.97 USD per ounce, with a 1.58% increase [6]. - As of the latest update, spot gold is quoted at 4229.09 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.54% increase [6]. - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, which have heightened market risk aversion [6]. - Analysts predict that the strong upward trend in gold prices may continue, with potential to reach 5000 USD per ounce [6].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - In the short term, stock index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly, but beware of the recurrence of tariff policies. Pay attention to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month [1]. - Treasury bond prices are affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, suppressing the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver prices may fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to continuous disturbances in copper - mine supply and improved macro - liquidity, despite the suppression from global trade frictions [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to have limited downward space as they approach the cost line, although the fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces callback risks due to the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions and repeated risk - aversion sentiment. Zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. in the non - ferrous sector are affected by various factors such as trade uncertainties, policy changes, and inventory levels, and their prices are expected to fluctuate or be under pressure in the short term [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil, soybean oil, and other varieties are affected by factors such as policies, reports, and inventory, and their prices have different trends. Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term [1]. - In the energy and chemical sector, products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and tariff policies, with different price trends [1]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Treasury bonds: Affected by the central bank's interest - rate risk warning, the upward space is limited [1]. - Gold: Prices may fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate further once the physical shortage in London is alleviated [1]. Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Despite trade - friction suppression, prices are expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the downward space is limited as it approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Faces short - term pressure, but the opening of the export window may support the domestic price if the LME inventory continues to decline [1]. - Nickel: Prices are mainly affected by the macro - situation in the short term, with high - inventory pressure. Short - term trading is recommended, and there is still pressure from primary - nickel surplus in the long term [1]. - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is a risk of callback in the non - ferrous sector, but there are still opportunities to go long at low levels in the long term due to supply risks and demand support [1]. Black metals - Iron ore: The short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal, the short - term is in a wait - and - see state [1]. - Coking coal: The price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but it is not suitable to chase short positions for now [1]. Agricultural products - Palm oil: The Indonesian B50 policy may have a negative impact on near - month contracts, and the MPOB September report is expected to support prices [1]. - Soybean oil: The reduction of raw materials and oil - mill压榨 reduction support the price due to factors such as China's rare - earth export restriction and the expected reduction of US soybean ending stocks [1]. - Rapeseed oil: There is no new driving force, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: Prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and face pressure in the long term with the new - cotton listing [1]. - Sugar: The original - sugar price has bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to short at high levels in the domestic market [1]. - Corn: New - season corn is under selling pressure, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom [1]. Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, geopolitical situation, and demand seasonality [1]. - Fuel oil: Affected by factors such as OPEC production increase, demand seasonality, and US tariff threats [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan's construction rush is likely to be falsified [1]. - Rubber: Affected by factors such as US tariffs, supply increase, and weak market atmosphere [1]. - BR rubber: The raw - material fundamentals are loose, and the downstream trading is weak [1]. - PTA: The domestic production has decreased due to unit maintenance [1]. - Ethylene glycol: The port inventory is low, but the price is under pressure due to imports and device commissioning [1]. - Short - fiber: Factory devices are gradually returning, and the delivery willingness of market warehouse receipts has weakened [1]. - Styrene: The export sentiment has eased, and there is support at the cost end [1]. - PF: The price fluctuates strongly due to factors such as reduced market - price center and increased downstream demand [1]. - PVC: The price fluctuates weakly due to factors such as reduced maintenance and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Calcined alumina: The short - term price is bearish, and the medium - term is bullish [1]. - LPG: The upward momentum is limited due to factors such as OPEC production increase and high domestic inventory [1]. Shipping - Container shipping (European line): The price may rebound at a low level, and it is expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

年内涨幅超60% 金价还会继续涨吗? 10月15日,在美联储降息预期发酵和中美贸易冲突催 黄金价格再创新高。现货黄金价格突破4200美元/盎司高位 至今涨幅超60%,COMEX黄金年初至今涨幅也高达52%。 消息面上,10月15日凌晨,美联储主席鲍威尔发表 话,表示劳动力市场前景持续恶化,这一表态支撑投资者 再次降息的预期,带动金价回升;其次,中美贸易冲突再 然随后特朗普言论出现软化，但政策的反复加剧了市场的 性,抬升市场避险情绪。此外,全球央行持续购金及黄金 资金流入也成为金价的重要推手。 世界黄金协会报告显示, 年上半年,各国央行购金总量达415吨,9月黄金ETF持仓 360万盎司,年初至今上涨17%，达到9720万盎司,为2( 月以来最高水平。 展望未来金价走势,瑞银最新上调短期黄金目标价至 4200美元;高盛预计,金价在2026年12月有望涨至每盎司· 元的水平。 全基金ETFRI 2025.10.15 讯 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 读者 ...

2025.10.15 本文字 数：1196，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 李隽 金价连创新高，山东黄金三季度的业绩，却出现了环比大幅下滑。 山东黄金（600547.SH，01787.HK）10月14日晚披露，预计前三季度实现净利润38亿元至41亿元，同比 增幅达83.9%至98.5%。 关于黄金继续创新高，博时基金基金经理王祥认为，以黄金为代表的贵金属乐观行情受到多重因素的影 响，首先是时隔七年之后，美国政府再次出现关门，停摆在时间上与市场关注的"经济数据时点"高度重 合，产生了比以往更加直接和明显的市场信心冲击。此外，中美贸易摩擦再度升温，中国增加了对稀土 出口的管制，特朗普则威胁要对中国进口商品加征100%关税，导致市场避险情绪增加。 10月15日盘中，山东黄金一度大跌超过6%，且在金价连创新高的背景下，连续两天出现下跌。当日， 该公司A股下跌2.77%，报收41.7元。 广州一位私募人士向第一财经分析，三季度金价大幅走强，金矿股总体涨幅也比较大，而山东黄金当季 利润情况比预期要差一些，反映出来的是盈利不如预期，投资者借势抛售。出现这种情况，有可能是三 季度支出增加，影响了利润表现。 山东黄金公 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite the continuous rise in gold prices, Shandong Gold's third-quarter performance showed a significant quarter-on-quarter decline in profits, raising concerns among investors about the company's profitability and operational efficiency [1][2]. Company Performance - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% to 98.5% [1]. - The estimated net profit for the third quarter is around 1.1 billion yuan, which, while showing over 60% year-on-year growth, reflects a nearly 40% decline compared to the second quarter [1]. - The company's stock price fell over 6% during trading on October 15, with a closing price of 41.7 yuan, indicating investor concerns about the disappointing profit performance [1]. Industry Context - Shandong Gold is not alone in experiencing a quarter-on-quarter decline; other gold mining companies, such as Zhaojin Mining, also reported similar trends in their quarterly earnings [2]. - Zhaojin Mining reported a net profit of 2.117 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 140.43%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13.18% in the third quarter [2]. - The performance of gold ETFs is highlighted as a more stable investment option compared to gold mining stocks, appealing to conservative investors due to lower risk and more consistent returns [2]. Market Influences - The optimistic outlook for gold prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the potential U.S. government shutdown and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, which have heightened market risk aversion [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2512 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to oscillate weakly. The overall view is to oscillate, as there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a comprehensive short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is to oscillate weakly, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is to oscillate. The main logic is that although the tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut. There is still a lack of effective domestic demand, and the expectation of policy easing provides strong support. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2512, the short - term is "oscillate", the medium - term is "oscillate", the intraday is "oscillate weakly", and the overall view is "oscillate". The core logic is that long - and medium - term interest rate cut expectations remain, but the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillate weakly", the medium - term view is "oscillate", and the reference view is "oscillate". Treasury bond futures closed slightly higher yesterday. The tariff war has increased market risk - aversion sentiment, which is beneficial to treasury bond futures. However, the strong short - term domestic economic data reduces the necessity of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut, and the implied interest rate cut expectation between the market interest rate and the policy interest rate is weak, resulting in insufficient upward momentum for treasury bond futures. There is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand, and the expectation of a loose policy provides strong support. In the short term, treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5].

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by heightened market risk aversion and a strong financial appeal of silver assets, leading to increased investment in silver-themed funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of October 14, 2023, the COMEX silver futures for December reached a peak of $52.5 per ounce, marking a new high since its listing, with a current price of $50.17 per ounce and an open interest of 127,000 contracts [1]. - Domestic silver futures also hit a record high of 12,096 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 2.64% [1]. - Year-to-date, silver futures have attracted significant capital, with a total of 36 billion yuan in funds, an increase of 17.8 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, and the main contract has risen over 50% [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of increased market risk aversion and low inventory levels ahead of the October delivery date for COMEX silver [2]. - The current shortage in silver supply is expected to persist, which will continue to influence both silver futures and spot prices [2]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that while the silver market shows long-term upward potential, short-term investors should be cautious of potential pullbacks and consider reducing positions or using options to manage risk [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant rise in gold prices, reaching new historical highs, driven by escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, alongside expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with recent trading reaching as high as $4179 before experiencing some pullback [1]. - The market is currently observing key support levels at $4059 and $4022, while resistance levels are noted at $4079 and $4100 [1]. - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 100% tariff on Chinese imports has reignited fears in the market, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold continues to maintain an upward trajectory, with support levels identified around $4120 and $4090 [3]. - Resistance levels are noted at $4145, with further upward targets at $4179 and $4200 [3]. - Technical indicators such as the 5-day moving average and MACD suggest a bullish outlook, while KDJ and RSI indicators are showing signs of potential adjustments after being in overbought territory [3].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver futures prices have significantly increased, with gold reaching a historical high and silver approaching its peak, driven by market risk aversion and a short squeeze in the silver market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to heightened investor concerns over global economic uncertainty and a strong demand for physical precious metals globally, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [1] - The London market has experienced intensified short squeezes, further contributing to the upward trend in silver prices [1] - There is a notable increase in the prices of platinum and palladium, indicating that market funds are spreading across the entire precious metals sector [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - For December gold futures, the bullish sentiment remains strong, with the next target being a closing price above $4200, while the bearish target is below $3900 [2] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4104.30 and $4125.00, with support levels at $4050.00 and $4011.30 [2] - December silver futures also show bullish dominance, with a short-term target of closing above $50.00 and a bearish target below $46.70 [2] - The primary resistance levels for silver are at $50.00 and $50.50, while support levels are at $49.00 and $48.00 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, due to uncertainties in Trump's policies and Sino - US trade negotiations, and the accumulation of short - position losses, the financial market's overall liquidity risk has risen, leading to more violent price fluctuations in precious metals. Investors are advised to participate cautiously on a single - side basis. For gold, they can buy lightly when the price is above the $4060 support level and set stop - profit and stop - loss points. For silver, maintain a long - position mindset when the price is above $50. In the long term, affected by the US government shutdown and fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries, investors' asset pricing systems will be reshaped, which is beneficial to precious metals with strong financial attributes, and precious metals are expected to have a bull market similar to that in the 1970s [8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Since October, due to trade frictions, tariffs, and geopolitical situations, institutional and individual funds have continuously flowed into precious metals for hedging, intensifying the liquidity shortage in the spot market. There have been significant rises and falls in the domestic and overseas precious metal markets. On the morning of October 14, the main Shanghai gold contract AU2512 once rose by more than 4.7% to a record high of 958 yuan/gram, and the main Shanghai silver contract AG2512 had a maximum increase of 7.6%. However, in the afternoon, the market dived, and the closing price of AU2512 was 938.98 yuan/gram, with a 2.7% increase; AG2512 closed at 11533 yuan/kilogram, with a 2.64% increase [1]. Driving Factors Market Risk - Aversion - Since October, the US government shutdown and political turmoil in many countries, combined with trade frictions, have increased the market's expectation of a recurrence of the global financial market turmoil in early April this year. Panic has increased the callback risk of risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, and funds have flowed to safe - haven assets. Gold and silver, as safe - haven assets, have led the financial market, with continuous inflows of funds from central bank gold purchases to ETF holdings, driving the prices of gold and silver to new historical highs [2]. Silver Supply and Demand - In this round of precious metal price increases, international silver prices have risen more sharply, with the London silver spot price rising above the COMEX futures price, reflecting the depletion of physical spot liquidity. The 1 - month lending and leasing cost of London bank silver has reached an extreme level of 35%. Due to the large - scale short - selling of silver by European and American financial institutions through the derivatives market in the past, and the current increase in silver investment demand, the transportation of a large amount of London inventory to New York has tightened spot liquidity. With relatively backward miner supply, silver prices have been further pushed up. The domestic silver price has also lagged behind the overseas market, and the London lending and leasing rates, as well as the US COMEX inventory and the spot - futures price difference, will reflect whether the short - term supply shortage can be alleviated [5][7]. Future Outlook - Fundamentally, the risk of US economic recession has increased due to the impact of the government shutdown on the economy and the employment market. The Fed's policy of interest - rate cuts may strengthen, which will suppress the US dollar index. In the long - term, affected by the US government shutdown and fiscal and monetary policy turmoil in developed countries such as Europe and Japan, investors' asset pricing systems will be reshaped, which is beneficial to precious metals with strong financial attributes, and precious metals are expected to have a bull market similar to that in the 1970s. In extreme cases, the annual increase in the gold price may exceed 100% [8].