Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on September 29, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,321 points, up 193 points, a 0.74% increase, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 6,236 points, up 41 points, a 0.67% increase [1] - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical-B (02105.HK) saw a surge of over 30% after announcing positive preliminary results from its LAE102 Phase I multi-dose escalation study for obesity, which included overweight/obese participants with an average BMI of 29.4 kg/m² [3] - In the LAE102 study, the 6 mg/kg dose group showed an average lean body mass increase of 1.7% and a fat mass reduction of 2.2% by week 5, with adjusted averages showing a 4.6% increase in lean body mass and a 3.6% reduction in fat mass compared to the placebo group [3] - The study results align with previous Phase I single-dose escalation study findings, demonstrating good tolerability and safety, with no serious adverse events reported [3] - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical is actively negotiating with potential partners to accelerate the clinical development and commercialization of LAE102 [3] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests increased volatility, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, with AI being a key focus for the Hong Kong stock market [6] - The metals sector is expected to benefit from liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [6] - Recommendations include focusing on technology (including AI internet and high-end manufacturing) and metals as market mainstays, while also considering undervalued insurance stocks and high-dividend value strategies [6] - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks may be suitable for bottom-up investment [6]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment is rated at 39 points, categorizing it as "cold," which suggests a cautious investment environment [5][8] - Key themes identified for investment opportunities include Artificial Intelligence, Non-ferrous Metals, and Energy Storage [5] Theme Tracking Artificial Intelligence - Alibaba's CEO announced a significant investment of 380 billion yuan in AI infrastructure, positioning large models as the next generation operating system and AI cloud as the next computing platform [5] - Related stocks include Industrial Fulian (601138) and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) [5] Non-ferrous Metals - The Grasberg mine in Indonesia has delayed its reopening to mid-2026 due to landslides, raising concerns over copper supply and driving up international copper prices [5] - The domestic copper smelting industry is experiencing intense competition, leading to low processing fees and calls for self-discipline in production cuts, reinforcing supply contraction expectations [5] - Related stocks include Zijin Mining (601899) and Jiangxi Copper (600362) [5] Energy Storage - The domestic "New Energy Storage Special Action Plan" aims for 180 million kilowatts of installed capacity by 2027, attracting 250 billion yuan in direct investment [5] - Policies are expected to enhance project IRR to over 8%, shifting investment from "mandatory storage" to "proactive profit" [5] - Overseas orders surged by 220% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching 160 GWh, indicating a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics [5] - Related stocks include CATL (300750) and Sungrow Power (300274) [5] Market Capital Flow - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow, with Wanxiang Qianchao (000559.SZ) leading at approximately 56.98 million yuan [9] - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) at about 59.69 million yuan [11] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Luxshare Precision (002475.SZ) with a net outflow of approximately -248.21 million yuan [19] Industry Insights - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with significant net outflows observed in sectors such as Electronics and Medical Biology, indicating investor caution in these areas [19][16] - Conversely, the Communication and Media sectors show some resilience with positive net buy figures, suggesting selective investment opportunities [17]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations since September, with various sectors such as solid-state batteries, robotics, non-ferrous metals, and gaming emerging as new hotspots, indicating a notable acceleration in market rotation [1] - Funds heavily invested in AI computing have shown signs of portfolio adjustments, with some funds deviating from their holdings, suggesting a shift in strategy [2][3] - The performance of certain funds has diverged from their estimated returns, indicating potential reallocation of assets despite the underlying stocks' performance [2][3] Group 2 - Consumer funds have also exhibited signs of "cutting losses" and reallocating their portfolios, with some funds showing gains despite their major holdings declining [4][5] - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on emerging trends, such as the rise of domestic brands and innovative consumer products, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards sectors with higher growth potential [5][6] - The current market environment presents challenges for active management, as rapid sector rotation requires fund managers to adapt their strategies dynamically [7] Group 3 - There is an expectation of increased stock differentiation as market valuations rise, with a continued focus on AI computing-related assets, while new opportunities may arise in adjacent sectors like AR glasses and the Apple supply chain [8] - Fund managers are optimistic about the prospects of AI computing assets, particularly in relation to the global AI industry chain, while also recognizing the growing connection between AI and Chinese semiconductor companies [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the evolving structure and volatility characteristics of the A-share market, driven by the expansion of passive investment and the influence of quantitative trading, leading to increased market differentiation and frequent shifts in hot sectors [1][2] - The performance of actively managed small and medium-sized fund companies, such as Hengyue Fund, has gained market attention, with 7 out of 10 actively managed equity products achieving over 70% growth in the past year [1] - Hengyue Fund's Hengyue Advantage Select Mixed Fund has seen its net value rise from 0.46 yuan per share to 1.28 yuan per share, marking it as one of the few equity funds in the market to double its net value [1] Group 2 - Hengyue Fund emphasizes the increasing adaptability of actively managed equity funds to the current and future A-share market, allowing for more flexible exploration of alpha opportunities in small and mid-cap stocks, exclusion of poorly performing stocks, and focus on high-certainty performance targets [2] - The fund manager expresses optimism about sectors benefiting from rapid industrial development, such as AI computing and applications, as well as non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, while anticipating continued high volatility in the index [2]

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2%, reaching a new three-year high, with CATL's stock hitting an all-time high [1] - AI hardware and applications saw collective strength, with companies like Cambridge Technology and Inspur Information hitting their daily limit [1] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept surged, with Shanghai Electric and Hezhong Intelligent hitting their daily limit [1] - The chip industry chain remained active, with Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Kaimete Gas achieving historical highs [1] - The shipping sector faced collective adjustments, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping dropping over 5% [1] - Over 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, with a total transaction volume of 2.39 trillion [1] Daily Highlights Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear fusion concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Hezhong Intelligent, Haheng Huaton, and Wujin Stainless Steel hitting their daily limit [4] - China Fusion Energy Co., established with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, made its public debut at the 25th China International Industry Fair, showcasing its technology and business layout [4] - The company aims for commercial fusion energy by 2050, with plans to build a fusion experimental device named "China Circulation No. 4 (HL-4)" in Shanghai [4] Computing Power - The computing power sector was active, with Zhongdian Xindong achieving three daily limits in four days, and stocks like Ningbo Construction and Guangdian Electric hitting their daily limit [7] - Alibaba's CEO announced increased capital expenditure at the 2025 Cloud Summit, with a focus on large-scale clusters and distributed training capabilities [7] - The GPU cloud rental market is expected to grow significantly, reaching $12.8 billion by 2033 due to the demand for AI training and inference [9] Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals sector saw a surge, with stocks like Jingyi Co. and Nairui Mining hitting their daily limit [10] - A fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to a significant rise in global copper prices, with LME copper prices increasing by 3.2% [10] - Goldman Sachs classified the incident as a "black swan," predicting a potential loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12-15 months [10] Additional Insights - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to see increased orders as research and development progress, with a focus on core components like magnets and power supplies [6] - The high-temperature superconductors are projected to capture 25% of the global superconducting market by 2030, driven by demand from the nuclear fusion industry [6] - The domestic copper market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from energy transition and emerging industries [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on the medium to long term for stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; neutral on government bonds, recommended to hold [1][5] - Black building materials: Neutral on coking coal and rebar, recommended for range trading; bullish on glass, recommended to buy on dips [1][7][10] - Non-ferrous metals: Neutral on copper, aluminum, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, recommended for range trading or cautious long positions [1][12][19] - Energy and chemicals: Neutral on PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins, recommended for range trading; recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage on soda ash [1][22][34] - Cotton textile industry chain: Neutral on cotton and cotton yarn, recommended for range trading; bearish on PTA, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; neutral on apples, recommended for range trading with an upward bias; bearish on jujubes, recommended for range trading with a downward bias [1][36][37] - Agricultural and livestock: Bearish on pigs and eggs, recommended to sell on rallies; neutral on corn, recommended for range trading; bearish on soybean meal, recommended for range trading with a downward bias; bullish on oils, recommended to buy after the correction [1][40][53] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. The bond market is gradually recovering, and market sentiment is stabilizing [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as coal prices and policy expectations. The non-ferrous metals market is influenced by macro factors and supply and demand. The energy and chemicals market is facing challenges such as high inventory and weak demand [8][12][23] - The cotton textile industry chain is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and policy changes. The agricultural and livestock market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy support [36][40] Summaries by Category Macro-finance - Stock indices: A-shares showed a shrinking consolidation trend on Monday, with technology growth sectors performing relatively well. The market is expected to continue its upward trend in the medium to long term, but short-term fluctuations are inevitable. Recommended to buy on dips [5] - Government bonds: The market sentiment continued to improve on Monday, and the yields of government bonds at all maturities fell from previous highs. The central bank restarted the 14-day reverse repurchase operation, injecting positive sentiment into the bond market. Recommended to hold [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is experiencing a "Golden September" market, with prices rising across the board. The supply of coking coal is affected by factors such as mine maintenance and production cuts. Recommended for range trading [8] - Rebar: The futures price of rebar showed a slightly stronger trend on Monday. The valuation of rebar has slightly increased, and the macro policy and industrial demand are the main driving factors. Recommended for range trading [8] - Glass: The fundamentals of glass are stable, and the market is affected by factors such as coal prices and seasonal demand. The supply of glass is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended to buy on dips [10] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper showed a high-level consolidation trend this week. The demand for copper is affected by high prices, and the supply is affected by factors such as smelter maintenance and imports. The macro factors are expected to have a significant impact on the price of copper. Recommended for range trading [12] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to continue its high-level consolidation trend. The supply of aluminum is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is expected to increase in the peak season. Recommended for range trading [13] - Nickel: The price of nickel is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of nickel is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as stainless steel production and battery manufacturing. Recommended to sell on rallies [18] - Tin: The price of tin is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of tin is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as semiconductor production and solder manufacturing. Recommended for range trading [18] - Gold and silver: The prices of gold and silver are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The prices of precious metals are affected by factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy and geopolitical risks. Recommended for range trading [19][21] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The price of PVC is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of PVC is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as real estate and exports. Recommended for range trading [23] - Caustic soda: The price of caustic soda is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of caustic soda is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as alumina production and exports. Recommended for range trading [26] - Styrene: The price of styrene is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of styrene is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [27] - Rubber: The price of rubber is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of rubber is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as tire production and exports. Recommended for range trading [29] - Urea: The price of urea is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of urea is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as agriculture and exports. Recommended for range trading [30] - Methanol: The price of methanol is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of methanol is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [31] - Polyolefins: The prices of polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The supply of polyolefins is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as downstream consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [32] - Soda ash: The price of soda ash is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soda ash is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as glass production and exports. Recommended for short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: The prices of cotton and cotton yarn are expected to continue their range-bound trends. The global supply and demand of cotton are improving, but the new cotton production is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices. Recommended for range trading [36] - PTA: The price of PTA is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of PTA is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as polyester production and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [36] - Apples: The price of apples is expected to continue its upward trend. The supply of apples is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with an upward bias [37] - Jujubes: The price of jujubes is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of jujubes is affected by factors such as weather and production cuts, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The price of pigs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of pigs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [40] - Eggs: The price of eggs is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of eggs is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to sell on rallies [42] - Corn: The price of corn is expected to continue its range-bound trend. The supply of corn is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading [44] - Soybean meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to continue its downward trend. The supply of soybean meal is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as feed consumption and exports. Recommended for range trading with a downward bias [45] - Oils: The prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to continue their downward trends. The supply of oils is affected by factors such as production capacity expansion and imports, and the demand is affected by factors such as seasonal consumption and exports. Recommended to buy after the correction [53]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a day of oscillation and ended with all three major indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3828.58, up 0.22% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13157.97, up 0.67%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4522.61, up 0.46% [1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Electronics, which rose by 3.71%, and Computers, which increased by 1.70% [2] - The weakest sectors were Social Services, down 2.04%, and Beauty Care, down 1.36% [2] Market Trends - The market showed a strong performance in the consumer electronics sector, driven by positive news, while the robotics sector continued its strong trend [3] - The chip industry chain was notably active, and liquid-cooled server concept stocks saw fluctuations but ultimately rose [3] - The overall market saw approximately 2200 stocks rise, with over 70 stocks hitting the daily limit up [3] Economic Indicators - The September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged, with the 5-year LPR at 3.5% and the 1-year LPR at 3% [4] - The People's Bank of China provided insights into the financial industry's achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, focusing on long-term perspectives without immediate policy adjustments [4] Market Liquidity and Outlook - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.12 trillion, a decrease of 202.3 billion from the previous trading day [5] - Despite the lack of a significant rebound, the market did not show risk signals, indicating that liquidity remains relatively active [5] - The report suggests that the mid-term upward momentum of the market remains strong, supported by continuous catalysts in the technology sector [5] - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), public utilities, and non-ferrous metals for investment opportunities [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price fluctuated at a high level before the National Day. The Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm is uncertain, and domestic policies may be further strengthened. The recovery of peak - season consumption and high domestic maintenance will support the copper price [2]. - The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area. Although the inventory continued to accumulate during the peak season, it was still recommended to go long at low prices, and a strategy of going long on AD and short on AL could be considered for aluminum alloy [2]. - The zinc price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the domestic zinc fundamentals lacking support, and it was recommended to trade with a short bias in the range [2]. - The lead price broke through and then moved sideways, and it was recommended to go long at low prices in the range [2]. - The nickel price was expected to decline in the short - term after the interest - rate cut and remain in a state of oversupply in the long - term. It was recommended to hold short positions moderately at high prices, and stainless steel was recommended for range trading [3]. - The tin price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the upward channel. Due to the tight supply of tin ore and the recovery of downstream consumption, it was recommended for range trading [3]. - The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for short - term long trading or to wait and see. The polysilicon price was expected to fluctuate widely at a high level, and it was recommended to wait and see [3]. - The lithium carbonate price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely, and it was recommended for cautious trading [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **China's Economic Data**: From January to August, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year; in August, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.2%, and the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales was 3.4% [11][13][14][15]. - **US Economic Data**: In August, US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending September 13 fell to 231,000 [16][17][18]. 3.2 Copper - **Price Trend**: The copper price first rose and then fell this week. Domestically, the trading enthusiasm increased after the price center moved down, and it was expected to maintain a high - level shock before the National Day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Currently, domestic smelters are in a high - maintenance period, but with the supplement of imported copper, the supply pressure is not obvious. Terminal consumption is still weak, and the inventory is stable with a slight increase [2]. 3.3 Aluminum - **Price Trend**: The aluminum price showed a pattern of rising and then falling back to the shock area [47]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased steadily. The downstream demand entered the peak - season rhythm, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods continued to increase [2]. 3.4 Zinc - **Price Trend**: The zinc price fluctuated weakly last week, and it was expected to continue the weak shock [65]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of zinc concentrate was loose, and refined zinc production remained high. Terminal consumption was weak, and domestic zinc inventories reached a high for the year [2]. 3.5 Lead - **Price Trend**: The lead price showed a shock - rebound trend, breaking through and then moving sideways [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The inventory decreased, and the replenishment demand of battery enterprises was strong, supporting the spot lead price [2]. 3.6 Nickel - **Price Trend**: The nickel price fluctuated and declined last week, and it was expected to decline in the short - term and remain oversupplied in the long - term [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The refined nickel market was in an oversupply situation, the growth of nickel - iron prices slowed down, and the stainless - steel market had limited demand boost [3]. 3.7 Tin - **Price Trend**: The tin price continued to fluctuate in the upward channel [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry was expected to continue to recover, with inventories at a medium level [3]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - **Price Trend**: The industrial silicon price was expected to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production and inventory of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and organic silicon changed in different directions, and the market risk was relatively large [3]. 3.9 Carbonate Lithium - **Price Trend**: The carbonate lithium price was expected to continue to fluctuate widely [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was affected by mine - related issues, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal was good, with battery factories increasing production [3].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first rate cut since December 2024 [1][3] - The recent job growth in the U.S. has been significantly below expectations, prompting the Fed to take this action, with further rate cuts anticipated in upcoming meetings [3] - Following the announcement, the U.S. stock market initially rose but then reversed gains, with the S&P 500 index turning negative and the Nasdaq down by 0.5% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. dollar index fell to 96.22, the lowest level since February 2022, indicating a weakening dollar [6] - The Fed's median projections suggest a further 50 basis points cut in 2025, and 25 basis points cuts in both 2026 and 2027, with expected rates of 3.6%, 3.4%, and 3.1% respectively [6] - The rate cut is expected to increase money supply, lower loan rates, and encourage consumption and investment, positively impacting economic growth and market liquidity [6] Group 3 - Analysts predict that the Fed's rate cut may trigger a global wave of central bank rate cuts, potentially benefiting the A-share market in China and leading to a second wave of market rally [9] - Historical analysis shows that during previous Fed rate cuts, growth sectors and interest-sensitive industries in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have benefited from lower interest rates [9] - The Chinese bond market may attract foreign investment due to reduced pressure from U.S.-China interest rate differentials, enhancing the appeal of Chinese government and policy financial bonds [10]