Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Overall, the market lacks a basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small because of cost support. The market is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 to 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Section Market Price - This week, the price of US soybeans first declined and then rose, showing a sideways oscillation. The price of US soybean meal continued to fall, while the price of US soybean oil rose significantly to a new high for the year and is expected to enter a period of platform oscillation. Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports and the purchase price at farms (Iowa) increased, while the spot price of soybeans in southwestern Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso remained stable, while the average spot price at Paranagua Port increased slightly [8][9][13][15] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean-producing areas has improved, with the drought rate dropping from 39% last week to 35%. The temperature in the main soybean-producing areas of the US is 2 - 6 degrees Celsius higher than normal. Forecasts for the next two weeks indicate good precipitation in the main US soybean-producing areas, with no threat of drought. In Brazil, precipitation in the central region is low, and Argentina has entered a cold and dry winter. The US soybean planting progress is 93%, up from 90% last week, approaching the end of the planting season [29][31][33][42] Demand Factors - As of June 13, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.87 per bushel, up from $1.49 last week. The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 406,100 tons, down from 453,300 tons last week. The weekly export inspection volume was 215,800 tons, down from 547,000 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 539,500 tons, up from 61,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 75,000 tons, up from 58,000 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [45][47][49][51][53][55] Other Factors - The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is -0.227, indicating a basically neutral state. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of June 10, the net long position of soybeans was 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; and the net short position of soybean meal was 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [58][60][66][68][70]

油脂日报 | 2025-06-20 生柴政策支撑，油脂偏强震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8538.00元/吨，环比变化+20元，幅度+0.23%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8152.00 元/吨，环比变化+68.00元，幅度+0.84%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9691.00元/吨，环比变化-12.00元，幅度-0.12%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8760.00元/吨，环比变化-10.00元，幅度-0.11%，现货基差P09+222.00，环比变 化-30.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化+80.00元/吨，幅度+0.97%，现货基差Y09+178.00， 环比变化+12.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9870.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.30%，现货基差 OI09+179.00，环比变化-18.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美湾大豆(7月船期)C&F价格467美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；美西大豆(7月船期)C&F价 格462美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；巴西大豆(8月船期)C&F价格467美元/吨，与上个交易日相比上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural futures market is experiencing a divergence in performance across different commodities, with varying supply and demand dynamics influencing prices [1] Group 1: Soybeans - Northeast soybean prices remain stable with light trading, as the market is cautious about the auction atmosphere for old grain [1] - Southern production area prices are steady, with high-quality soybeans maintaining strong prices despite weak demand in sales areas [1] - The soybean market is expected to face pressure at 4280 - 4300 CNY/ton and support at 4130 - 4150 CNY/ton, with tight supply but equally weak demand [1] Group 2: Peanuts - The peanut production area has low leftover stocks, influenced by delayed imports and poor profit margins, leading to fewer imported peanuts arriving [1] - New planting area for peanuts has slightly increased year-on-year, but demand remains weak as oil mills enter a purchasing lull [1] - Short positions may be considered with support at 8110 - 8182 CNY/ton and resistance at 8520 - 8528 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Oils - Soybean oil prices have risen due to the Israel-Palestine conflict and favorable U.S. biodiesel policies, although domestic fundamentals remain largely unchanged [1] - The short-term outlook for soybean oil is weak, with resistance at 8000 - 8010 CNY/ton and support at 7770 - 7780 CNY/ton [1] - Canola oil is benefiting from rising crude oil prices and improved demand, with expectations of sufficient supply in the upcoming months [1] Group 4: Palm Oil - Palm oil prices are influenced by rising crude oil prices and U.S. EPA proposals, which improve biodiesel blending profits and demand [1] - From June 1 to 15, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4%, while exports increased by 17.7% to 26.3% [1] - The market is advised to hold long positions with support at 8100 - 8140 CNY/ton and resistance at 8704 - 8798 CNY/ton [1]

2025年06月16日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | 2 | | 豆粕：生物柴油政策利多，连粕跟随美豆偏强 | 5 | | 豆一：豆类市场偏强，跟随补涨 | 5 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 9 | | 棉花：关注外部市场影响 | 10 | | 鸡蛋：梅雨季利空释放 | 11 | | 生猪：等待现货印证 | 12 | | 花生：下方有支撑 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美国生柴政策及地缘风险均有利好 豆油：国内油脂表现或弱于国际油脂 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,140 | 涨跌幅 1.62% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,414 | 涨跌幅 3.37% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the probability of a sharp decline is small due to cost support. The market is generally oscillating with a strengthening bias, in the range of 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5] Summary by Directory Market Price - This week, the US soybean price first declined and then rose. The price dropped at the beginning of the week due to good weather in the US soybean - growing areas, but rallied on Friday night as all contracts of US soybean oil hit the daily limit on the bio - fuel blending side [8] - This week, the US soybean meal price continued to fall. After the significant positive news on the bio - fuel blending side of US soybean oil on Friday, the price of US soybean meal was further pressured [11] - Policy support led to a significant increase in the price of US soybean oil. The Trump administration proposed allowing refiners to blend more bio - fuels into gasoline and diesel next year, causing the price of soybean oil, the main raw material for biodiesel, to rise by 6.2%, the largest increase since January 10. If the policy is fully implemented, it is expected to drive the price of US soybean oil up to around 60 cents per pound [14] - Last week, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports increased, and the purchase price at farms (in Iowa) also rose. The spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa remained basically stable. In Brazil, the spot price of soybeans in Mato Grosso state and the overall Brazilian spot price were basically stable [16][18][20] Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - growing areas has improved, with the drought rate at 39% this week compared to 45% last week. The temperature in US soybean - growing areas is normal, and the forecast for the next two weeks indicates good precipitation in the main US soybean - growing areas, with no drought threat [27][30][32] - Brazil has entered the dry season, with less precipitation in most areas. In Argentina, the central and northern production areas have more precipitation, and the temperature is basically normal [34][36] - The US soybean planting progress is 90%, up from 84% last week, approaching the end. The US corn planting progress is 97%, up from 93% last week, and the planting work is basically completed [39][41] Demand Factors - As of June 6, the US soybean crushing profit was $1.49 per bushel, down from $1.9 last week [44] - The weekly export volume of US soybeans was 453,300 tons, up from 308,500 tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 547,000 tons, up from 268,300 tons last week. The weekly net sales volume was 61,300 tons, down from 194,300 tons last week. The sales volume for the next year was 58,000 tons, up from 3,500 tons last week. The quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons (0 ships), the same as last week [46][48][50][52][54] Other Factors - The latest value of ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.184, indicating a basically neutral state [57] - The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. The US soybean planting cost has decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian soybean cost has also decreased year - on - year [59][63][64] - In terms of CFTC positions, the net long position of soybeans is 54,800 lots, up from 35,500 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil is 33,900 lots, down from 34,700 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal is 75,800 lots, down from 86,400 lots last week [65][67][69]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamental of palm oil is weakening marginally, lacking a strong upward drive. The market is expected to enter a bottom - building phase in the next one to two months with a possible downward trend, but the decline may be affected by various factors [48]. - In the long - term, the overall supply of palm oil is not abundant. If the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no significant macro - level negative factors, palm oil should not be overly underestimated, and it is expected to fluctuate within a large range [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Abstract - Recent palm oil futures have increased in intraday volatility, affected by factors such as the U.S. biodiesel policy, India's tax cuts, and macro - external factors. The situation in palm oil - producing areas is crucial for the supply - demand pattern and price trends [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation - **Malaysian Palm Oil Production**: In May, Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation was slightly lower than expected, with production increasing by 5.05% to 177 million tons, an export increase to 139 million tons, and apparent consumption at 33 million tons. In June, production may decrease by 4% to about 170 million tons, and from June to August, the average monthly production is expected to be around 179 million tons. The CPO spot price is expected to decline [6][7]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: From January to April, cumulative exports were 428 million tons, a 13% year - on - year decrease. In May, exports exceeded expectations, and India's tax cuts may lead to a short - term improvement, but overall annual exports may be weak [20]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Production**: In March, production increased by 16% to 481 million tons, exports increased to 288 million tons, and inventory decreased to 204 million tons. In Q2, production is expected to be normal but without the high growth rate of March [28][29]. - **Indonesian Palm Oil Exports and Biodiesel**: In April, exports were weak. Indonesia raised the Levy tax, but also lowered the CPO reference price. Biodiesel implementation is not pessimistic, with a target completion rate of over 80% and a possible remaining balance in the biodiesel fund by the end of the year [35][38]. 3.3 Conclusion - In the short - term, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June may be around 200 million tons, similar to May. As the peak production season approaches, production and inventory will increase, and palm oil prices may decline. - In the long - term, the supply of palm oil is not overly abundant, and if the B40 biodiesel policy is implemented smoothly and there are no major macro - level negative factors, palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a large range [48].

李婷 棕榈油月报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 多重因素作用 棕榈油或延续震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/15 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 美国关税政策冲击市场后，主要经济体贸易谈判给市场释 放积极信号，美国经济韧性或仍在，美股持续走强，5月 非农数据超预期，降息时点或退后，特朗普施压美联储降 息，美元指数低位震荡运行，OPEC+预期增产的长期供应 压力在，油价或震荡运行。5月马棕油产量和库存预计增 加， ...

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9427 | 24 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2618 | 14 | | | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 167 | -2 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 266 | 9 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 327483 | -2907 主力合约持仓量:菜粕(日,手) | 578743 | -23502 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜油(日,手) | 45807 | 4530 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:菜粕(日,手) | -3648 | 8178 | | | 仓单数量:菜油(日,张) | 600 | -412 仓单数量:菜粕(日,张) | 27615 | -394 | | | 期货收盘价(活跃):ICE油菜籽(日,加元/吨) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. The month - on - month increase in palm oil production in the producing areas narrowed, showing a moderate growth trend. The export demand increased month - on - month, and it was in a stage of both supply and demand growth. It was expected that the inventory in May would increase. The domestic palm oil inventory stopped falling and increased, and the tight pattern was alleviated. Market news said that the US biodiesel exemption might reduce the consumption of oils and fats, which had an overall negative impact. [3][6] - Macroscopically, Trump agreed to resume the window period of trade negotiations with the EU, the risk - aversion sentiment might ease, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the oil price continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased moderately, the export demand increased slightly month - on - month, and it was expected that the inventory in May would continue to rise. At the same time, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy still existed. The fluctuation range of the market decreased, and the subsequent trend should be monitored. In general, palm oil might fluctuate in the short term. [3][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main continuous contract rose 0.3 to 49.22 cents per pound, with a gain of 0.61%. The BMD Malaysian palm oil main continuous contract rose 13 to 3825 ringgit per ton, with a gain of 0.34%. The DCE palm oil contract rose 22 to 8006 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.28%. The DCE soybean oil contract rose 20 to 7774 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.26%. The CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 114 to 9391 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.23%. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 50 to 8600 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.58%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 to 8030 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.25%. The spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 160 to 9610 yuan per ton, with a gain of 1.69%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 232 yuan per ton, down 2 yuan from the previous period. The futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1617 yuan per ton, up 94 yuan from the previous period. [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil increased by 1.72%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.38%, and the production increased by 3.72%. UOB estimated that the production from May 1 - 20 would decrease by 1% to increase by 3%. MPOA data showed that the production increased by 3.51%. [7] - Export: From May 1 - 20, 2025, according to ITS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products was 741,560 tons, a 5.3% increase. According to SGS data, the export volume was expected to be 651,381 tons, a 13.73% increase. According to Amspec, the export volume was 720,422 tons, a 1.55% increase. Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in June to the 9.5% export tariff range. [7][8] - Import: In April 2025, China's palm oil import volume was 160,000 tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 540,000 tons, a 22.8% year - on - year decrease. From January to April, China's soybean oil import volume was 20,000 tons, a 69.5% year - on - year decrease. In April, China's rapeseed oil and mustard oil import volume was 180,000 tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase; from January to April, it was 910,000 tons, a 35.6% year - on - year increase. [8] - Policy impact: The US government planned to grant 163 small refineries exemptions, which would reduce the actual mandatory blending volume of US biodiesel. It was expected that the US biodiesel production would decrease by nearly 4.6 million tons, and the consumption of about 5 million tons of oil raw materials would be reduced. If the exemption period lasted for 3 years, the annual consumption of biodiesel made from oils and fats in the US would decrease by nearly 1.6 million tons in the future. [9] - Inventory: As of the week of May 16, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.8085 million tons, an increase of 7,300 tons from the previous week and 160,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 656,300 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 204,500 tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 359,700 tons, an increase of 22,400 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 39,100 tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 792,500 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 403,900 tons from the same period last year. [9] - Transaction volume: As of the week of May 23, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 36,420 tons, compared with 11,140 tons in the previous week; the weekly trading volume of palm oil was 504 tons, compared with 531 tons in the previous week. [9] Industry News - MPOC stated that the price of crude palm oil in May was expected to fluctuate between 3,750 and 4,050 ringgit and then gradually recover. It was expected that the global vegetable oil demand from June to September would be beneficial to palm oil, limiting the further decline of prices. India's reduction of palm oil import tariffs was expected to increase the import volume and might reduce the import demand for soybean oil. As of May 16, the price gap between palm oil and soybean oil had narrowed to $51. Due to the high - base effect, the production from May to September was expected to only increase moderately. The sluggish export performance in March and April led to an increase in inventory. The export of Malaysian palm oil to Sub - Saharan Africa increased by 24% in the first four months of 2025, and the export to ASEAN increased by 8%, but the export to other regions decreased. The production of US biodiesel decreased, and the consumption of major biodiesel raw materials also decreased sharply. [11][12] - The chairman of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) Eddy Martono said that increasing the special export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from 7.5% to 10% would weaken the competitiveness of Indonesian palm oil products in the global market. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance decided to increase the special export tax on palm oil from 7.5% to 10% from May 17, 2025. [12] Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the spot - futures spreads of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventories of domestic three major oils. [13][14][15]

期货热点追踪 生柴政策利空突袭！美豆油跳水拖累棕榈油走低，这次棕榈油期货会跌到哪里？ 相关链接 ...