以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者黄益平 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 文/ 北京大学国家发展研究院、中国经济研究中心教授 黄益平 既然增长下行压力长期存在，稳增长究竟需要什么样的政策组合？初步的 回答是，稳增长需要宏观经济、行业政策、改革政策三方面的政策相互配 合。不过需要注意的是，在不同时点，政策重点可能有所不同，当总体经 济相对平稳但某些产业正在下行时，行业政策和改革政策应该成为重点； 而当经济确实面临较大下行压力，特别是受到一些内外部冲击时，可能需 要更多考虑宏观政策来支持增长。 稳增长政策组合探讨 我先把时间维度拉长一些，分享对稳增长政策的思考，然后再对当前的政策应对提一点建议。 中国经济增长的下行压力在过去十几年间一直存在。我们最近分析了新世纪以来中国经济增长的数据， 发现一个非常有意思的现象：将每年年初全国人民代表大会确定的经济增长目标与当年实际实现的增长 数据放在一起比较来看，2012年以前，我国GDP增长目标大致在每年7%-8%，大部分年份的目标都是 8%；然而，最终实现的实际增长通常都在9%以上，大部分年份甚至超过10 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance and growth of the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index and its related ETF, indicating a positive trend in the market for state-owned enterprises [1][2] - As of May 7, 2025, the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index (000824) increased by 0.68%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Everbright Bank (up 2.39%) and Qingdao Port (up 2.31%) [1] - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) saw a growth of 0.85%, with the latest price reported at 1.07 yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The State-Owned Enterprise Dividend ETF experienced a significant increase in scale, growing by 3.2029 million yuan over the past two weeks, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [1] - The ETF's share count also rose by 3.3 million shares in the same period, indicating robust demand [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, which is expected to positively impact the banking sector [2] Group 3 - The top ten weighted stocks in the State-Owned Enterprise Dividend Index as of April 30, 2025, include COSCO Shipping Holdings and Jizhong Energy, collectively accounting for 15.18% of the index [3] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of high dividend yield securities from state-owned enterprises, focusing on companies with stable dividends and significant liquidity [2]

高炉吨钢利润稳中向好，低库存背景下普钢公司业绩有望进一步修复 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 5 日 本期内容提要： 上周市场表现：上周钢铁板块下跌 0.52%，表现劣于大盘；其中，特 钢板块下跌 2.29%，长材板块上涨 0.77%，板材板块上涨 0.42%；铁 矿石板块下跌 1.00%，钢铁耗材板块下跌 3.90%，贸易流通板块上涨 0.88% ➢ 。 铁水产量环比增加。截至 5 月 2 日，样本钢企高炉产能利用率 92. 0%，周环比增加 0.40 百分点。截至 5 月 2 日，样本钢企电炉产能利 用率 55.5%，周环比下降 1.20 百分点。截至 5 月 2 日，五大钢材品种 产量 773.4 万吨，周环比增加 6.91 万吨，周环比增加 0.90%。截至 5 月 2 日，日均铁水产量为 245.42 万吨，周环比增加 1.07 万吨，同比 增加 16.70 ➢ 万吨。 五大材消费量环比下降。截至 5 月 2 日，五大钢材品种消费量 970.9 万吨，周环比增加 44.61 万吨，周环比增加 4.82%。截至 5 月 2 ...

应对经济下行压力、实现稳增长，需要宏观经济政策、行业政策和改革政策三个方面的协同配合。其 中，宏观经济政策主要适用于短期逆周期调节，而不应长期依赖；行业政策要应对产业更新换代过程 中的结构性挑战，例如如何在稳定房地产等关键行业的同时培育新兴产业；改革政策应着力改善民营 企业经营环境和提高市场配置资源效率。 以下文章来源于中国金融四十人论坛 ，作者黄益平 中国金融四十人论坛 . 聚焦金融热点，速递论坛动态，独家发布论坛课题成果，连载书系新书、好书。 美国加征关税带来的经济冲击可能超出预期，需对下阶段可能出现的下行风险做好心理准备，并采取 更有针对性的措施： 对受到直接冲击的企业和个人提供直接救助，帮助他们渡过困难；此外，农民 工市民化政策不仅有利于公平，也有利于扩大国内消费。 ——黄益平 中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）成员、北京大学国家发展研究院院长 01 稳增长政策组合探讨 我先把时间维度拉长一些，分享对稳增长政策的思考，然后再对当前的政策应对提一点建议。 中国经济增长的下行压力在过去十几年间一直存在。我们最近分析了新世纪以来中国经济增长的数 据，发现一个非常有意思的现象：将每年年初全国人民代表大会确定的经济 ...

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for April is 49%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector[1] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, while the construction PMI is at 51.9%, also down 1.5 percentage points[1] - The decline in manufacturing PMI is the largest among the three sectors, falling below the 50% threshold, signaling external demand's impact on the economy[1] Group 2: External Demand Impact - Concerns over tariffs have materialized, with the April manufacturing PMI drop exceeding the historical average decline of 0.7 percentage points[1] - The April manufacturing PMI's month-on-month decline of 1.5 percentage points is the third largest for this period in the last decade, following declines of 2.1 and 2.7 percentage points in April 2022 and 2023, respectively[1] - The manufacturing production index fell by 2.8 percentage points to 49.8%, while the new orders index decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 49.2%, primarily due to a drop in export orders[1] Group 3: Employment and Pricing Trends - The employment index in manufacturing decreased slightly by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9%, while the construction employment index fell significantly to 37.8%, the lowest on record[2] - The input price index for raw materials dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 47%, while the output price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.8%, indicating greater pressure on output prices compared to input prices[2] - The textile and equipment manufacturing sectors, which are more reliant on external demand, experienced greater declines in PMI compared to high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods sectors[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that external demand pressures may increase in May and June due to tariff changes and global manufacturing trends[1] - To counteract the impact of declining exports, boosting service demand is highlighted as a critical strategy, requiring more policy support to enhance overall economic activity[2] - Upcoming growth stabilization policies are expected to be implemented in the second quarter, focusing on expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumption, to mitigate export impacts[2]

大宗商品周度报告 2025年4月28日 黑色方面，钢材、铁矿石在前期强势上涨后出现调整，成材库存去化节奏减 慢，铁矿石盘面情绪同步转弱，双焦受原料补库力度减弱影响也震荡偏弱。政策 面稳增长预期依然存在支撑，但短期现实需求与宏观情绪脱节，导致黑色板块波 动加大。 能源方面，市场对全球经济放缓及需求疲软的担忧升温，同时美国成品油库 存回升、美联储偏鹰预期抑制了油价上行空间。尽管中东局势仍有不稳定因素， 但避险支撑逐步减弱，油价上行动能不足。天然气价格继续承压，受库存高企及 气温回暖影响，供需宽松格局未改。短期来看，能源板块情绪趋于谨慎，关注 OPEC+后续减产动态以及全球经济数据对需求端预期的进一步调整。 化工方面，聚酯产业链品种如PTA、乙二醇在成本支撑减弱下震荡回落，甲 醇、PVC等基础化工品亦受制于内需疲软和出口承压，盘面持续承压。尽管国 内稳增长政策仍在推进，但短期现实需求接力不足，化工板块陷入成本支撑减弱 与终端需求乏力共振的调整阶段。节后市场关注点将转向下游复工节奏、库存变 化及国际油价的指引作用。 农产品方面，油脂油料板块走高，受外盘反弹、供需预期改善及资金情绪回 暖带动。畜禽板块表现偏弱，消费提振 ...

Economic Overview - The first quarter of 2025 showed a good economic start, with March export data exceeding expectations, driven by a "rush to export" effect, leading to a year-on-year export growth rate of 12.4%[6] - Core economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and real estate showed significant improvement, primarily due to the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies[6] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.3% year-on-year, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment being the main drivers[6] Trade and Policy Implications - The recent trade conflict that erupted in early April did not impact the first quarter's economic performance; instead, the "rush to export" provided some support[7] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is expected to focus on macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, with a high probability of further policy implementation[7] Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is identified as the government's primary task for 2025, with a focus on childcare subsidies, real estate, and tourism[8] - Recent policies include increased childcare subsidies and support for the real estate market, indicating a commitment to releasing market potential[8] Market Expectations - Since late February, market expectations for the 2025 performance of the Wind All A Index have weakened, with the consensus forecast for net profit declining from CNY 66,149.50 billion to CNY 63,991.29 billion, a drop of 3.26%[10] - This decline reflects a market reassessment of the U.S. government's trade stance towards China, particularly following tariff increases[10] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.59%, indicating a stronger performance compared to other indices like the ChiNext and the CSI 500, which saw declines[5] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio is currently at 17.95, up by 1.02% from the previous week[5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown a slight increase of 0.13% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market, which rose by 0.59% [11] - The report indicates that the production of iron and steel has decreased slightly, with a daily average iron output of 2.4012 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.10 tons, but a year-on-year increase of 15.37 tons [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products has increased, with a total consumption of 9.486 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 48.10 thousand tons [3][37] - Social inventory of five major steel products has decreased, with a total of 11.248 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 51.90 thousand tons [3][45] - The price of ordinary steel has decreased, with a comprehensive index of 3,457.7 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 25.06 yuan/ton [3][51] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 0.13% increase, lagging behind the market [11] - The special steel sector increased by 1.74%, while the long product sector rose by 1.06% [13] 2. Core Data - Iron and steel production has decreased slightly, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.2% [3][26] - The consumption of five major steel products increased by 5.34% week-on-week [32][37] - Social inventory decreased by 4.41% week-on-week [45] 3. Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,457.7 yuan/ton, down 0.72% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is 73 yuan/ton, down 32.41% week-on-week [59] 4. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating various earnings and P/E ratios [76]

Price Trends - In March 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.5%, indicating a marginal expansion in the decline[2] - The month-on-month CPI dropped by 0.4%, aligning with seasonal patterns, and the year-on-year decline narrowed[3] - Core CPI showed a marginal recovery, primarily due to the effects of the "trade-in" policy, which supported prices of household appliances and electronics[3] Consumption and Demand - Overall consumption and service demand remain weak, necessitating further policy support[2] - March food prices fell by 1.4% month-on-month, with significant declines in fresh vegetables, pork, and eggs[6] - The average price of live pigs was approximately 14.6 yuan/kg, remaining below 15 yuan/kg for three consecutive months[6] PPI Dynamics - The PPI saw an expanded decline of 0.4% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, influenced by falling international oil prices and weak domestic demand[12] - The upstream mining sector experienced a month-on-month price drop of 2.9%, while raw material prices shifted from a 0.1% increase to a 0.6% decrease[12] - The prices of durable consumer goods fell by 1.0%, indicating a potential "price war" as companies aim to boost sales[12] Policy Implications - Increased urgency for monetary policy adjustments, including RRR cuts and interest rate reductions, is anticipated[2] - Fiscal measures are expected to include accelerated special bond issuance and enhanced consumption subsidies[2] - The ongoing tariff disturbances and rising external risks suggest that further growth-stabilizing policies are likely to be implemented[2] Risks - Uncertainty in real estate trends persists, and the strength of policy measures may be weaker than expected[21]