Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows signs of optimization, with marginal improvements in raw material production and utilization rates for steel, cement, and glass[1] - Steel construction material production increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while apparent demand for steel construction materials rose by 2.7%[5] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products in Shandong has also seen recovery[13] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 18.8 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The average listing price index for second-hand homes fell by 0.45% week-on-week as of July 14[22] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 140.65 million yuan per day, a 39.0% increase week-on-week[29] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 12.6% year-on-year, with a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous week[27] - Passenger car retail sales from July 1-20 reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%[30] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.5% year-on-year as of July 20, with container throughput growing by 4.3%[32] - South Korea's export value increased by 4.1% year-on-year in the first 20 working days of July, although the growth rate slightly declined compared to June[32] Group 5: Risks - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed may be patient in cutting interest rates due to strong economic data, and the progress of tariff negotiations has made the trade situation clearer, leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The progress of US - EU trade negotiations has boosted global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the introduction of stable - growth policies for ten major industries have boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals may fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as hydropower, liquor, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Although economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and stable - growth policies have boosted risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term, paying attention to correction risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to rebound last Friday, but the night - session prices fluctuated. The sharp decline in coking coal prices led to a correction in the steel market. Real - world demand remains weak, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the decline in hot - rolled coil production. There may be production restrictions around the September 3 parade, and the short - term supply increase is limited. It is advisable to treat the steel market as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected last Friday. The weekly iron - water output decreased slightly, and the room for further growth in iron ore demand is limited. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. The supply of medium - grade powder in ports is sufficient, the block - ore resources are concentrated, and the supply of low - grade powder has been supplemented. The global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 122 tons week - on - week, but the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines increased significantly. The port inventory increased slightly. It is advisable to treat the iron - ore price as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, and tariffs are generally easing. The US economy remains resilient, but the manufacturing industry is weakening, while the eurozone manufacturing industry is stabilizing. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term stable - growth plans are sentimentally positive for copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, and Comex copper inventories are approaching 250,000 short tons [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with a slight increase in domestic social inventories and a significant increase in LME inventories. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document has boosted market sentiment, the actual impact is expected to be limited. It is advisable not to short for the time being and wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased to 55.51%, and the supply of tin mines is expected to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be suppressed in the medium term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The exchange has restricted the position of the LC2509 contract, and the commodity sentiment has declined. There are many supply - side disturbances under the "anti - involution" background. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after the correction. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 48.6%. The price of imported lithium ore has rebounded, and the social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory have increased [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" market has driven the futures and spot prices of industrial silicon above the full cost of the main low - cost area, but there are inventory and supply pressures above. The demand for silicone has decreased due to a fault - shutdown. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term correction risks [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price remained stable last week, and the futures price had a high premium. The number of warehouse receipts increased. It is necessary to pay attention to the convergence of the basis. The inventory increased slightly, and the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry, the price of silicon wafers increased by 35% in July, and the production schedule decreased by 10% [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The recent driving force in the oil market is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening confidence in the US reaching an agreement with major trading partners have led to a slight decline in oil prices. The probability of the US and Europe reaching an agreement is 50%, which may threaten energy demand. The inventory is low, and the spot market has not shown obvious signs of weakness. The strengthening of the US dollar may continue to suppress priced commodities, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected with the sector and continued to fluctuate at a low level. The inventory has not shown obvious signs of depletion, and the overall demand is average. The basis has rebounded slightly, mainly due to the decline in the futures price. The social inventory is slightly accumulating. After the peak season, the market expectation will gradually decline. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil center, but the upside of the futures price is limited due to the inventory situation [15]. - **PX**: The short - term PTA operating rate remains high, and the tight supply situation of PX continues. The overseas price has risen to 874 US dollars, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has also risen to 293 US dollars. However, the PTA processing fee has dropped to a six - month low, which may lead to production cuts in leading plants. PX occupies too much industrial - chain profit, which may lead to downstream negative feedback risks. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside is not overly optimistic [15]. - **PTA**: The spot - trading volume is still declining, and some spot prices have weakened to a discount of 5 yuan to the main contract. The main - contract price has weakened with the futures market. The downstream operating rate remains low at 88.7%, and downstream production cuts still exist. The PTA processing fee has remained at a low level of around 150, which may lead to a reduction in the operating rate. The short - term inventory is slightly accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly to 54.4 tons, and the import volume has remained low. The coal - chemical products have risen slightly due to capacity - adjustment news. However, there is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance plants, the short - term downstream operating rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have not shown unexpected growth. The futures price has failed to break through the pressure level and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of crude oil has fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price has declined with the sector. The terminal orders are still average, and the operating rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, but more significant inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand stocking in August. The short - fiber price is expected to follow the polyester end in the medium term and can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: The coal - mine capacity - verification policy has pushed up coal prices, which has strengthened the support for methanol. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the market is overheated, and the short - term price is still strong. Fundamentally, the upside of methanol is limited by plant restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits. It is necessary to be vigilant against the expected difference near the Politburo meeting, and it is advisable to be cautiously long or wait and see for conservatives [16]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies such as "anti - involution", "chemical - plant assessment", and coal inspections, the PP price has rebounded, and the bullish market has continued. The short - term price is strong, but the futures price will face a pressure level, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see [17]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term macro - policies have boosted commodity prices, and polyethylene has followed the upward trend. In the medium and long term, the oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and downstream demand has weakened during the price increase. The import profit has increased significantly, which may lead to a worse - than - expected fundamental situation. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium and long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The impact of extreme heat in the US soybean - producing areas has decreased. Although the weekly crop - quality rate has slightly decreased, the hot and humid weather is generally beneficial to crop growth. US soybean exports have cooled down, and the news of direct domestic imports of South American soybean meal has weakened China's dependence on US soybeans. Currently, US soybeans are slightly under pressure, but the bullish market for soybean oil provides support. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US negotiations next week, which also provides phased support for US soybeans [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Since July, the production of Malaysian palm oil has progressed smoothly, the exports have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. Fundamentally, India has low oil inventories and high cost - performance, and there is an expectation of improved exports during the festival - stocking period. In the related market, crude oil has fluctuated, and the biodiesel policy has no room for fermentation. The domestic related oil fundamentals are under pressure, and the soybean - palm oil price has rebounded with the correction of palm oil, but the price inversion is still serious. In addition, the arrival of imported palm oil in China has increased, the spot circulation in the off - season is average, and it is close to the near - month import cost line. It is expected that the pressure of selling hedging at high prices may still exist. The palm - oil market is bullish, but the upside resistance has increased significantly. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The decline in US soybean and Brazilian export prices has led to a weak adjustment in the expectation of domestic long - term soybean imports. In addition, the increase in direct domestic imports of soybean meal and the reduction of soybean and soybean - meal export tariffs in Argentina have weakened the market's concern about the shortage of soybeans and soybean meal in the fourth quarter. The correction of the futures prices of the 01 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 has basically priced in the logic of cost decline and is anchored to the cost of direct - imported soybean meal for support. The negative news adjustment has ended, and it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the US soybean market in the next stage. It is expected that the soybean - meal price will stabilize in the short term. However, if the US soybean production - increase expectation remains stable, there may be a further expanding bearish market at the end of the crop - growth period in late August [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean - oil inventory pressure is prominent, the terminal consumption is still in the off - season, and the basis quotes in various regions have continued to weaken. Currently, the soybean - meal price has declined significantly, and the cost has not changed significantly. The soybean - meal price has received seesaw support in the short term. In addition, the fundamental expectation of related palm oil is also poor. Therefore, the soybean - palm oil price difference is expected to have a phased upward trend in the short term. For rapeseed oil, the domestic port inventory is high, the circulation is slow, and with the increase in direct - import channels for rapeseed and oil meal, the concern about future supply is fading. The preference of long - position funds is not high, and the weak - range market may continue [20].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a strong performance with a weekly increase of 7.55%, outperforming the broader market [10] - The report highlights the impact of government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the industry, which is expected to improve the profitability of steel companies [3] - Despite facing supply-demand challenges, the overall demand for steel is anticipated to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate and infrastructure [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was strong, with specific segments like special steel and long products seeing increases of 8.04% and 9.04% respectively [10] - The average daily pig iron production was 2.4223 million tons, showing a slight week-on-week decrease but a year-on-year increase of 2.58 million tons [3][25] 2. Supply Data - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.8%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.55 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.16% [25] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.681 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% [31] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders increased by 22.38% week-on-week, reaching 115,000 tons [36] 4. Inventory Data - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.271 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 0.54% [44] - Factory inventory decreased to 4.094 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.48% [43] 5. Price Data - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,606.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week rise of 4.16% [50] - The comprehensive index for special steel reached 6,625.5 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76% [50] 6. Profitability - The profit per ton for rebar was 282 yuan, an increase of 64.91% week-on-week [59] - The average profit margin for 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5 percentage points [59] 7. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on regional leaders with advanced equipment and strong environmental standards, as well as companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but offers investment suggestions for different asset classes and sectors: - Stocks: Short - term cautious long [2][3] - Bonds: Short - term high - level oscillatory correction, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Commodities: - Black metals: Short - term volatile increase, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous metals: Short - term oscillatory rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term oscillation, cautious wait - and - see [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious long [2] Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and the US economic growth accelerated due to better - than - expected PMI and employment data, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and an increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, although the economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the ten - industry growth - stabilizing policies are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - Different asset classes and sectors have different trends and investment suggestions based on their fundamentals and policy impacts. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Global situation**: The European Central Bank's decision, the EU's anti - tariff plan, and the easing of global trade tensions, along with the better - than - expected US economic data, have led to a rise in global risk appetite. The US dollar index rebounded [2]. - **Domestic situation**: The first - half economic growth was higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slowed. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Asset performance**: Stocks are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term; bonds to correct at a high level; black metals to be volatile; non - ferrous metals to rebound; energy and chemicals to oscillate; precious metals to oscillate at a high level [2]. Stocks - Driven by sectors such as Hainan concept, energy metals, and rare earth permanent magnets, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market was oscillating strongly on Thursday. The supply contraction expectation of coking coal supported the steel market. The real - world demand was weak, and the production and consumption of five major steel products decreased. The supply may be restricted around the 9.3 parade. The market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Thursday, while the futures price continued to weaken. The pig iron production is at a high level but has limited upward space. The global iron ore shipment increased, but the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased. The price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [4]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese decreased on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys was weak due to the decline in steel production. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and coal were strong. The steel tender price increased. The prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The EU and the US are approaching a tariff agreement. The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan has boosted sentiment. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The import of scrap aluminum decreased. The fundamentals are weak, but the policy has boosted sentiment. The price increase is limited [11]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but has limited upward space [11]. - **Tin**: The supply is recovering, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the upward space will be restricted in the medium term [12]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate increased significantly on Thursday. Supply disruptions and policy sentiment support the price, which is expected to be oscillating strongly [13]. - **Industrial silicon**: The price of industrial silicon decreased slightly on Thursday. The "anti - involution" sentiment has an impact, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of polysilicon increased significantly on Thursday. The margin requirements have been adjusted. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [15]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The EU and the US are close to a tariff agreement, but the resumption of Chevron's production in Venezuela may increase supply. The oil price is expected to be bearish in the long term and oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is stable after a correction. The inventory de - stocking has stagnated, and the demand in the peak season is average. The price is expected to follow the crude oil price in the short term, with limited upward space [16]. - **PX**: The support from the previous strong resonance of the sector has weakened. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **PTA**: The PTA price has increased, but the spot drive is weak. The demand is in the off - season, and the processing fee is low. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [17]. - **Ethylene glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has increased driven by the crude oil price and sector resonance. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium term [18]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol has increased. The inventory has decreased, but the long - term supply pressure is large. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but limited in the long term [19]. - **PP**: The price of PP has adjusted slightly. The policy expectation is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is under pressure in the long term [20]. - **PL**: The price of propylene is stable. The supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [20]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has adjusted. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price may rebound in the short term but has a downward trend in the long term [21]. - **Urea**: The price of urea is in a stalemate. The demand is weakening, and the supply is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The overnight CBOT November soybean price increased. The US soybean export sales were lower than expected [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The soybean meal is expected to be strong in the short term and may correct significantly in mid - to - late August. The cost - driven force is not strong, and the futures price increase is limited [24]. - **Soybean and rapeseed oil**: The inventory pressure of soybean oil is high, and the demand is weak. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the soybean and rapeseed oil market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may increase [25]. - **Palm oil**: The palm oil market is in a short - term bull market, but the upward resistance is increasing. The inventory is increasing, and the selling pressure may increase [25]. - **Pigs**: The pig supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the price increase is limited. The futures contract profit is high, and it is a suitable time for selling hedging [26]. - **Corn**: Corn is in the supply - demand off - season from late July to August. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. The weather may affect the price in mid - to - late September [26][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy in the first half of the year remained resilient, with China's GDP in H1 growing by 5.3% year-on-year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and the "rush to export" phenomenon supported the economic data, but also reduced the urgency of policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, there has been an increasing expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, lithium battery, and new energy vehicles. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reduction policies are needed to promote the "anti - involution" trading [2]. - After the passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US, Trump has shifted his focus to external pressure to accelerate tariff negotiations. The current tariff situation is in a "stagnant" stage, and its impact on sentiment and demand expectations should be watched out for [3]. - The current commodity fundamentals are still weak, and one should be cautious about the implementation of policy expectations. The volatility of commodity prices may remain high [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's export performance in June was remarkable, with a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of Sino - US tariffs. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in June slowed to 4.8% due to the suspension of policy subsidies in some areas, but subsequent subsidies are expected to support domestic consumption. Infrastructure and manufacturing investments declined, and the risk of the weak real - estate sales dragging down the real - estate chain still exists. On July 22, A - shares strengthened throughout the day, and the commodity futures market saw a wave of limit - up for many varieties such as coking coal and coke, stimulating the full - scale outbreak of cyclical stocks [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, relevant departments have emphasized the governance of disorderly low - price competition among enterprises. The expectation of "anti - involution" policies in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and lithium battery has increased, and the prices of some commodities have rebounded. The upcoming ten key industry pro - growth work plans for industries like steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals will focus on structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity [2]. "对等 Tariff" Impact - The passage of the "Great Beautiful" Act in the US has shifted its policy from "tight fiscal expectation + neutral monetary policy" in the first half of the year to a stage where policies are "easy to loosen and difficult to tighten." The US Treasury Secretary said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, with expected tariff revenues of up to $2.8 trillion in the next decade. Trump has extended the grace period for the "equal tariff" and started the "equal tariff 2.0" stage. The US has sent tariff letters to 25 countries in 4 batches, and negotiations with various countries are in progress [3]. Commodity Sector - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are most sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit significantly from inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and the short - term geopolitical premium in the energy sector has ended, with a relatively loose medium - term supply outlook. OPEC + has accelerated production increases, and the third direct Russia - Ukraine negotiation will be held this week [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, one should consider long - term positions in industrial products on dips [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3][7] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the macro - economic situation, both overseas and domestic, and provides short - term judgments on various futures products. Overseas, the fundamentals are relatively stable, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies and Fed policy. Domestically, the economy shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy support. For assets, there are structural opportunities in the domestic market, and long - term weak dollar trend is expected overseas [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas fundamentals are relatively stable. The new Fed chairman's nomination may affect the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US tariff policies are expected to be implemented in early August. The US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data [7] - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 economic data showed resilience, with GDP and export growth exceeding market expectations. High - frequency data indicates an improvement in the investment side. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies. Current growth - stabilizing policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [7] - **Asset View**: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in Q4. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper is recommended [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations for the "anti - involution" policy are difficult to be falsified, but there is a lack of incremental funds, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate the market. Option liquidity continues to deteriorate, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen. Attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market expectations continue to improve, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8] - **Iron Ore**: Port arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories remained stable. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [8] - **Coke**: A second round of price increases is approaching, and the market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market was pulled up by macro - stimuli, and the coking coal futures price exceeded 1,000 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sector performed strongly, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [8] - **Manganese Silicon**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [8] - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to heat up, and spot prices start to follow. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on spot sales [8] - **Soda Ash**: Concerns about aging facilities are rising, and the spot and futures markets are rising in tandem. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on soda ash inventories [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The implementation time of US tariffs on copper may be advanced, and the Shanghai copper price is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish stance, and domestic demand recovery [8] - **Alumina**: The scale of warehouse receipts registration needs to be observed, and the alumina market is expected to decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and excessive electrolytic aluminum复产 [8] - **Aluminum**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [8] - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black sector boosted the zinc price, and short - selling opportunities are recommended. The market is expected to decline, with attention on macro - risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8] - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and inventories are accumulating. The lead price is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8] - **Nickel**: The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse has been opened, and the nickel price is expected to decline in the long - term. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply shortages [8] - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price is weak, and the stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile, with attention on Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [8] - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price has strong bottom support. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8] - **Industrial Silicon**: The silicon price has rebounded under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions are being hyped, and the lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile, with attention on insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8] 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10] - **LPG**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price valuation has entered a severely overvalued stage, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on unexpected demand [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is under great downward pressure, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to decline following crude oil, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has continued to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10] - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is unbalanced, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis has stabilized, and devices are restarting. The market is expected to rise, with attention on ethylene glycol inventories [10] - **PX**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the PX market is expected to be volatile, with attention on crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10] - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened, and the cost of PX is strong. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on polyester production [10] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis has declined, and processing fees have rebounded. The market is expected to rise, with attention on terminal textile and clothing exports [10] - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on future bottle - chip production [10] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Plastic**: Spot support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Styrene**: There is no clear driving force, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the PVC market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [10] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked, and the caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [10] 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil continues to lead the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. The market is expected to rise, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10] - **Protein Meal**: After China and Australia signed a trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal market declined slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [10] - **Corn/Starch**: Spot supplies are locally tight, and the futures price is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on insufficient demand, macro - factors, and weather [10] - **Pigs**: Pig supplies are sufficient, and prices are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10] - **Rubber**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market rebounded after a decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on significant crude oil price fluctuations [10] - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by macro - factors, and the pulp price is in a stalemate. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [10] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has increased with increased positions, and the 14,000 - yuan mark is being tested. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on demand and production [10] - **Sugar**: The sugar price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on abnormal weather [10] - **Logs**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile. The market is expected to decline, with attention on shipping and delivery volumes [10]

Main Variety Views Macroeconomy - Overseas: Trump reached a trade deal with Japan, the US imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, the US - Indonesia agreement was finalized, and China - US will restart trade negotiations in Sweden. The dollar index fell to 97.3, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.35%. [2] - Domestic: A 1.2 - trillion Tibet hydropower project and industry supply - side optimization policies boosted market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3580, and the trading volume in the two markets rebounded to 1.93 trillion. [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rose. Gold reached a nearly five - week high above $3400 per ounce, and silver neared $40. Trade uncertainties and low US bond yields drove the increase. [3] - With the US - EU trade negotiation at a standstill and political intervention risks, the safe - haven appeal of precious metals increased. Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. [3][4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper and LME copper rose. The domestic spot market was active, and LME inventory increased to 12.5 tons. [5] - Trump's pressure on Powell, China's policies, and supply - demand fundamentals are expected to keep copper prices bullish in the short term. [5][6] Aluminum - Shanghai and LME aluminum prices rose. Aluminum ingot inventory increased, and aluminum rod inventory decreased. [7] - High overseas macro uncertainties and domestic policies boosted sentiment. Despite the high price and off - season consumption, the market is still bullish. [7] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices rose. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in late July, tightening supply. [8][9] - Alumina is expected to remain bullish, but over - heating risks should be noted. [9] Zinc - Shanghai and LME zinc prices were bullish. The spot market was affected by high prices, and the transaction was mainly among traders. [10] - Overseas uncertainties, domestic policies, and LME's potential squeeze situation are expected to drive zinc prices to continue to rebound. [10] Lead - Shanghai and LME lead prices were volatile. The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead was limited, and downstream consumption improvement was limited. [11] - With cost support and limited upward drivers, lead prices will be volatile. [11] Tin - Shanghai and LME tin prices were bullish. The market atmosphere was warm, but the fundamentals were weak, with inventory likely to increase. [12] - Tin prices may be bullish in the short term due to capital, but continuous growth is not supported. [12] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to reduced production. [13] - Supply contraction and policies are expected to keep industrial silicon prices bullish in the short term. [13][14] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium futures and spot prices rose. Policy intervention and production line maintenance affected the market. [15] - Policy - driven lithium prices may be bullish, but demand - side signals need attention. [15][16] Nickel - Nickel prices were bullish. Nickel ore prices were weakening, and nickel - related products showed different trends. [17][18] - Overseas trade risks and domestic policies will make nickel prices volatile. [18] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices were weak. US API inventory decreased, and global oil demand growth may be affected by the economy and tariffs. [19] - Geopolitical risks are cooling, and the market is in a short - term bullish and long - term bearish situation. Short - term prices will be volatile. [19] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures were bullish. Coal policies and production control supported steel prices. [20] - Iron ore futures were bullish. Port inventory increased, and the market was driven by macro factors and improved fundamentals. [21] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. Brazilian soybean exports may decrease, and US soybean压榨利润 decreased. [22] - Weather in August and trade agreements will affect prices. Domestic policies and supply expectations will keep prices volatile. [22][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and exports decreased in the first 20 days of July. [24] - Domestic policies and potential supply - demand tightening are expected to make palm oil prices volatile and bullish. [25][26] Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing price, change, change percentage, trading volume, and open interest of various metal futures contracts on July 22, 2025. [27] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed data on copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coal, carbonate lithium, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including price changes, inventory, and basis. [28][33][35]

晨会纪要 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 7 月 23 日 联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | 2025/7/23 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農物 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 液化石油气 | 炊油 | 橡胶 | | | | 锌 | 铝 | 橡胶 | | | | 原油 | 沥青 | 工业硅 | | | | 二债 | 氧化铝 | 多晶硅 | | | | 五债 | 烧碱 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | 十债 | 棉花 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | 三十债 | 棉纱 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | 红枣 | 白糖 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | 锰硅 | 玉米 | 焦炭 | | | | 硅铁 | 热轧卷板 | 焦煤 | ...

Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates that from July 14 to July 20, the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds showed divergence, with high-grade rates rising and mid-to-low grades declining, with overall changes ranging from -5 BP to 3 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased on a month-on-month basis, with a reduction in corporate bonds and directional tools, while enterprise bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds saw an increase [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with enterprise bonds and directional tools showing an increase, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds experienced a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds continued to decline, with all varieties seeing a decrease in transaction amounts [2] - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased, and the credit spreads for medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed [2] - The report suggests that despite the potential for fluctuations, the long-term yield is expected to continue on a downward trend, and investors should consider increasing allocations during adjustments while focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - The report highlights that the central urban work conference indicates a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, which will serve as a new policy foundation [3] - In the real estate sector, ongoing optimization of policies is expected to support the market's stabilization, with a focus on high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [3] - The report notes that the recent launch of a large hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, will significantly increase the demand for special steel, particularly in high-altitude and corrosive environments [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price support from domestic policies, while the lithium market faces supply surplus pressure, limiting price increases [5] - The report anticipates that the rare earth market will benefit from improved export demand, with June exports showing a significant increase of 32.02% month-on-month [5][6] - The overall strategy maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry and a positive rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold [6]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Overseas, the US dollar index continues to decline, and global risk appetite has generally increased. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policy measures are expected to boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stock indices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; government bonds are at a high level and volatile; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. Summary by Category Macro - finance - **General situation**: Overseas, the US dollar index and US bond yields are falling, and global risk appetite is rising. Domestically, economic growth is higher than expected in H1 but slows in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. - **Assets**: Stock indices are volatile and slightly stronger, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Government bonds are at a high level and volatile, and cautious observation is advised. For commodities, black metals are expected to rebound from low levels, non - ferrous metals are expected to rebound, energy and chemicals are volatile, and precious metals are at a high level and volatile, with cautious long positions recommended for relevant sectors [2]. Stock Indices - **Market performance**: Driven by sectors such as hydropower, engineering machinery, and civil explosives and cement, the domestic stock market continues to rise [3]. - **Fundamentals and policy**: Economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but consumption and investment slow down in June. Policy boosts domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term macro - upward drivers are strengthened. Follow - up attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - **Market trend**: On Tuesday, the precious metals market continued to rise. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline and other factors support the strength of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has slowed down. The volatility of precious metals is expected to increase, and they are short - term strong. Gold's medium - and long - term upward support pattern remains unchanged, and its strategic allocation value is prominent [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Policy expectations are strengthened, and steel prices continue to rebound. The real demand is weak in the short term, and the demand for plates is stronger than that for building materials. Speculative demand has increased. The output of five major steel products has decreased, and cost support is strong. Short - term, it is recommended to view it with a volatile and slightly stronger mindset [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounds. Under the policy expectation, the black metal sector rises, driving the iron ore price up. The steel demand is in the off - season, but steel mill profits are high. The iron ore supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebound slightly. The demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The cost of silicon manganese production in southern factories is high, and the production profit is low. The cost of silicon iron has increased slightly, and the production rhythm is stable. Short - term, the prices may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of the soda ash main contract rises significantly. The supply is in an over - supply pattern, the demand is weak, and the profit has decreased. The "anti - involution" policy supports the bottom price, but the long - term price is suppressed by the supply - demand pattern. Short - term, the price is supported [8]. - **Glass**: The glass main contract price hits the daily limit. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and there are expectations of production cuts. The terminal real estate demand is weak, and the profit has increased. The price is supported by the "anti - involution" policy [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The upcoming Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's growth - stabilizing plan boosts sentiment. The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time, and there is uncertainty. Short - term, the plan is positive for copper prices [10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, it is weak in the near term. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document boosts market sentiment, but the actual impact is limited, and the increase is expected to be limited [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost has increased. The industry is in a loss state, and demand is weak in the off - season. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is better than expected, and the mine supply tends to be loose. The terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. Short - term, the price is expected to be volatile, and the medium - term upside is restricted [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the lithium carbonate main contract rises significantly. The production has increased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. Although the fundamentals have not improved, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the industrial silicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The "anti - involution" sentiment drives the re - pricing of the industry chain. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of the polysilicon main contract rises significantly and hits the daily limit. The industry is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the market should pay attention to the margin adjustment [13][14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As the US trade negotiation deadline approaches, the oil price has fallen for three consecutive days. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected. The demand in the peak season is average, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and be in a weak and volatile state [15]. - **PX**: PX follows the upstream raw materials and is in a range - bound state. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, but the upside is limited [15]. - **PTA**: The spot is weak, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is driven by the "anti - involution" resonance but has limited upside. There is a risk of production cuts due to low processing fees [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported at a certain level. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the downstream demand is weak. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is slightly lower, following the polyester sector. The terminal orders are average, and the inventory is high. It is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern [16]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol in Taicang has risen and then fallen slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The price is short - term strong under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, but the upside is limited [17][18]. - **PP**: The PP price is slightly adjusted. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term, and the upside is limited [18]. - **PL**: The propylene futures are newly listed, and the price is affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, the supply pressure is large, and the price increase driver is limited [18]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE is adjusted. The import arbitrage window is open, and the demand is weak in the off - season. The price may rebound in the short - term but has limited upside and is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term [19]. - **Urea**: The urea price has risen with the market sentiment. Fundamentally, the demand is weakening, and the supply is loose. The price is expected to rise in the short - term but be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans is under pressure due to weather conditions. After a short - term heatwave, there are expected to be showers, which may limit crop stress [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean meal is expected to have a pattern of inventory accumulation and weak basis. The rapeseed meal consumption is far below expectations, and the inventory is slow to decline. The short - term market is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern [21][22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean oil has high inventory pressure, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season. The rapeseed oil has high port inventory and slow circulation. The palm oil is the dominant factor in the market. The soybean - palm oil price difference may widen [22]. - **Palm Oil**: The inventory of palm oil has increased, and the futures price has risen. The short - term market is bullish, but the resistance to price increases has increased. The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the export improvement is less than expected [22].