AI图片 投资者对美国政策不可预测性的担忧日益加深，美元兑主要货币汇率跌至四年来最低谷。 此时美国总统特朗普却并不担心。他周二表示，美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌，预计汇率会有波动。 被记者问及是否担心美元贬值时，特朗普表示： "不，我认为美元表现很棒。我认为美元的价值——看看我们正在进行的贸易，美元表现出色。" "我希望美元能够——找到它自己的合理水平，这才是公平的做法。" 特朗普暗示他可以操纵美元汇率，称"我可以让它像溜溜球一样上下波动"。但他认为这样做并非好事，并将其比作为了提高就业数据而雇佣不必要的员 工，同时批评了一些他认为试图贬值本国货币的亚洲经济体。 虽然特朗普显得不担心美元贬值，但评论认为，美元的跌势还没完。长期来看，美联储独立性、不断扩大的预算赤字、财政挥霍相关的担忧以及政治两 极分化等结构性因素正对美元构成下行压力。 特朗普讲话后，美东时间27日周二美股尾盘，ICE美元指数（DXY）跌幅扩大，曾跌破96.00至95.60下方，刷新2022年2月以来低位，日内跌约1.5%，和 彭博美元现货指数均四连跌，后者盘中刷新2022年3月以来低位，最近六个交易日累跌超3%，均创去年4月特朗普公布对等关 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have surpassed $5,200 per ounce, reaching a record high driven by a weak dollar and investor sell-off of sovereign bonds and currencies [1][3] - Gold prices increased by 1% on Wednesday, following a 3.4% surge the previous trading day, marking the largest single-day gain since April [1][3] - Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have risen by 21%, while silver prices have surged nearly 59% during the same period [1][3] Group 2 - The Japanese government bond market has experienced significant sell-offs, reflecting concerns over massive fiscal spending, which has contributed to the demand for precious metals [1][3] - Market speculation suggests that the U.S. may intervene to support the yen, putting further pressure on the dollar and making precious metals cheaper for most buyers [1][3] - A measure of the dollar index fell by 1.1% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day decline since April [1][3] Group 3 - The Trump administration's recent actions, including threats to impose tariffs and military interventions, have created market uncertainty [4] - Bond traders are betting on a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, anticipating that Rick Rieder of BlackRock may replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, which could lead to lower borrowing costs [5] - Suki Cooper from Standard Chartered indicated that the dovish Fed policy combined with geopolitical risks may accelerate gold allocation driven by retail investors, with further upside risks expected unless a short-term correction occurs [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to its lowest since 2014, the dollar index hit a four - year low, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East increased. Domestically, A - shares entered a phase of volume contraction and differentiation, but the medium - term trend remained positive. Industrial enterprise profits in December 2025 showed year - on - year growth, and the full - year profit in 2025 had its first increase in four years [2][3]. - Precious metals: Gold prices hit new highs, and the gold - silver ratio was expected to recover from a 50 - year low [4]. - Copper: The decline in the US consumer confidence index led to a fall in copper prices. It was expected to maintain a high - level range - bound oscillation in the short term [5][6]. - Aluminum: The sharp decline in the US dollar index boosted aluminum prices, which were expected to oscillate at a high level [7]. - Alumina: The supply pressure decreased slightly, and alumina prices were expected to stabilize [8][9]. - Cast aluminum: The supply - demand stalemate continued, and cast aluminum prices were expected to oscillate at a high level [10]. - Zinc: Supported by the weakening dollar and cost factors, zinc prices were expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [11]. - Lead: Refinery production cuts provided some support, and lead prices were expected to remain weak with possible fluctuations around the integer level [12][13]. - Tin: Regulatory measures were offset by the sharp fall of the dollar, and tin prices were expected to oscillate at a high level, but there was a risk of correction [14]. - Steel products (Screw and coil): Before the Spring Festival, demand was limited, and steel prices were expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - Iron ore: Supply pressure persisted, and iron ore prices were expected to oscillate downward [16]. - Coking coal and coke: Spot trading was sluggish, and futures prices were expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal: Attention should be paid to the progress in South American production areas, and soybean meal prices were expected to continue to oscillate [19][20]. - Palm oil: It was expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to geopolitical factors, policy support, and supply - demand changes [21]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interest, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [22] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, it shows the price changes of SHFE copper and LME copper, as well as data on inventory, spot quotes, and spreads. Similar data are presented for nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal [23][25][27][29]

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a strong rebound, currently quoted at 1161.19 yuan per gram, up by 0.34 yuan, representing a 4.49% increase from the previous trading day [1] - The opening price for gold was 1155.96 yuan per gram, with an intraday high of 1162.21 yuan and a low of 1152.18 yuan [1] Group 2 - Trump's comments on the dollar not being a concern have led to a significant drop in the dollar index, indicating a market interpretation of the U.S. government's openness to a weaker dollar [2] - Despite rising U.S. Treasury yields and expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates, the dollar remains under pressure, reflecting concerns about the coherence of U.S. policy [2] - Trump's contradictory stance on currency manipulation has triggered a new wave of selling in the dollar, which may lead to further declines [2] Group 3 - The bullish momentum in gold is attributed to Trump's remarks about currency manipulation, which caused the dollar index to drop by 50 points, leading to an influx of safe-haven investments into gold [3] - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are breaking through resistance levels, with the next target set at 5200 USD [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to maintain current rates, but any subtle comments from Powell could trigger new market volatility [3]

摘要北京时间周三（1月28日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于96.053附近，现货黄金开盘于5173.51美元/盎 司，目前交投于5185.87美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于1162.32元/克附近，沪金主力交投于1167.02元/克 附近。 北京时间周三（1月28日）亚市盘中，美元指数交投于96.053附近，现货黄金开盘于5173.51美元/盎司， 目前交投于5185.87美元/盎司附近，黄金t+d交投于1162.32元/克附近，沪金主力交投于1167.02元/克附 近。 上一交易日美元指数收跌1.33%，报95.758，现货黄金收涨3.37%，报5179.16美元/盎司。在现货黄金下 跌之际，其他贵金属涨跌不一：现货白银收涨7.93%，报112.14美元/盎司；现货铂金收涨2.50%，报 2649.30美元/盎司；现货钯金收跌0.97%，至1930.00美元/盎司。 【最新数据一览】 5、印欧自贸易协定公布：超90%欧盟出口商品关税将被取消或降低，汽车关税将逐步降至10%。欧盟 将在7年内分阶段把印度商品的关税降至零，汽车、钢铁和农产品除外。 6、英国首相斯塔默将访华。 【今日重点关注的财经数据与事件】 08 ...

川普：不担心美元贬值，可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。 美联储传声筒：美联储预计将暂停降息，恢复降息的路径尚不明确。 川普：已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。 1月28日 资讯分享 周二，因持续的经济和地缘政治不确定性，投资者继续涌向贵金属。现货黄金开盘持续上涨，重回5080 美元附近后陷入震荡，随后在美盘时段暴力拉升，并将历史新高刷新至5190美元上方，最终收涨 3.41%，报5179.40美元/盎司；现货白银日内震荡上行，并重回110关口上方，最终大涨8.39%，报112.32 美元/盎司。 由于一场冬季风暴导致美国原油产量锐减，原油一度跳涨近3%。WTI原油在美盘前开启涨势，并冲上 62美元，最终收涨2.84%，报62.65美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨2.61%，报66.53美元/桶。 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 | 钯：缓步扬头 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 期货研究 铂：震荡向上 资料来源：同花顺，Wind，彭博，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：金十数据） 【趋势强度】 铂趋势强度：0；钯趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 1、特朗普：不担心美元贬值，可以让其像悠悠球一样涨跌。 2、美联储传声筒：美联储预计将暂停降息，恢复降息的路径尚不明确。 3、特朗普：美国已向伊朗方向派遣了一支庞大的海军舰队，但希望最终无需动用武力。 4、美国中情局正在秘密开展工作，计划在委内瑞拉境内建立常设美国据点。 5、欧盟卫星通信计划已启动，该计划汇集 27 个成员国政府 ...

在美国总统特朗普表示并不担心美元贬值后，欧元兑美元自2021年6月以来首次突破1.20关口，一度升 至1.2081，单日最大涨幅达1.7%。这一波动并非孤立事件，而是发生在美元对G10主要货币整体走弱的 背景下。 从市场结构看，期权市场的变化尤为突出。本周欧元兑美元一年期看涨期权相对看跌期权的溢价升至 2020年3月以来高位，反映出无论是套期保值还是投机交易，市场对欧元进一步走强的预期明显增强。 美元走弱并非单一因素驱动，而是多重压力叠加的结果。一方面，美国财政赤字扩大的担忧仍在，贸易 摩擦带来的不确定性也使部分资金对美元资产保持谨慎。另一方面，在地缘政治风险上升的环境下，各 国央行和机构增加了对黄金及其他储备资产的配置，一定程度上分流了对美元的需求。 从时间节奏看，美元年初曾出现阶段性反弹，但上周重新转为下行。交易员反馈显示，纽约联邦储备银 行近期与部分金融机构就美元兑日元走势进行沟通，侧面反映出监管层对汇率波动的关注正在上升。 若美联储在政策声明中继续强调"依赖数据"和"保持谨慎"，而未释放更明确的收紧信号，美元仍可能面 临压力，相对而言为欧元提供支撑空间。 除经济和货币政策因素外，美国国内政治风险同样值 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to reach a new high, and silver is aiming for 100. Copper prices are likely to be strong due to the decline of the US dollar. Zinc and tin are expected to trade in a high - level range. Lead prices are supported by the decrease in LME inventory. Aluminum is expected to perform strongly, with an increase in alumina maintenance. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Platinum is expected to move upward in a volatile manner, and palladium is expected to rise slowly. The situation of nickel in Indonesia remains uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions. Stainless steel prices are supported by the rise of ferronickel due to concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, Comex gold 2602 rose 2.11% to 4938.40, while Shanghai gold 2602 fell 0.49% to 1083.56. For silver, Comex silver 2602 rose 3.51% to 96.215, and Shanghai silver 2602 rose 0.82% to 23370. Gold ETF holdings increased by 2 to 1079.66. Shanghai gold inventory increased by 2019 to 102009 kg, and Comex gold inventory (previous day) increased by 6979 to 36142880 troy ounces. Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 11727 to 589052 kg, and Comex silver inventory (previous day) decreased by 4162840 to 422313658 troy ounces [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump downplayed the risk of dollar depreciation, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate broke through 1.20. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to the lowest level since May 2014. The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East, causing oil prices to rise 3% and spot gold to rise over 2%. The US government shutdown is approaching [4][6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both have a trend intensity of 1 [10]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai copper's main contract closed at 102600, up 0.71%, and the night - session price dropped 1.01% to 101560. London copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13024, down 1.21%. Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 406 to 144908, and London copper inventory increased by 1825 to 172350 [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week. Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating TC/RC for 2026. A Chilean copper mine was fined, and a copper - gold mine in northern Chile stopped production. Road blockades at some mines in Chile were lifted [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper has a trend intensity of 1 [13]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai zinc's main contract closed at 24950, up 0.91%. London zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3351, up 2.51%. Shanghai zinc inventory decreased by 624 to 28312 tons, and London zinc inventory decreased by 775 to 110550 tons [14]. - **News**: The US will hold an air force combat readiness exercise in the Middle East. The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts in January, and there is uncertainty about future rate cuts [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc has a trend intensity of 0 [16]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai lead's main contract closed at 17000, down 0.41%. London lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2036, up 0.05%. LME lead inventory decreased by 2425 to 211175 tons [17]. - **News**: The "new Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts this week [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai tin's main contract closed at 451160, up 6.07%, and the night - session price dropped 3.26% to 436450. London tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54865, up 0.68%. Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 71 to 8553 [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since 2014. The Japanese finance minister said that they will coordinate with the US to take appropriate actions on exchange - rate fluctuations if necessary [21][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin has a trend intensity of 0 [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 24305, up 90. LME aluminum 3M closed at 3213, up 17. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 79.60 million tons, unchanged from the previous day. The average domestic alumina price was 2649, down 4 [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: UBS said that rising metal and memory prices will erode the profits of electric vehicle enterprises. The US government shutdown is approaching [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum has a trend intensity of 1, alumina has a trend intensity of 0, and cast aluminum alloy has a trend intensity of 1 [26]. Platinum and Palladium - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump said he is not worried about dollar depreciation. The "Fed newswire" said that the Fed is expected to pause rate cuts, and the path of resuming rate cuts is unclear. Trump said the US has sent a large naval fleet towards Iran. The Hungarian central bank governor said Hungary may consider increasing the proportion of gold in central bank reserves [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium both have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Shanghai nickel's main contract closed at 146110, up 730. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 14540, down 105 [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses. The Chinese government has implemented export license management for some steel products. The Indonesian government may adjust the nickel ore production target and benchmark price formula. Some mines in Indonesia are facing potential fines for illegal land occupation [33][34][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both have a trend intensity of 0 [38].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has reached a four-year low, driven by multiple factors including political uncertainty and comments from President Trump, which have intensified selling pressure on the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness Factors - The ongoing weakness of the dollar is attributed to a combination of factors, with the uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration's policies being a key driver [3]. - Tensions between the US and NATO allies over Greenland have reignited market concerns regarding the dollar's risk premium, leading to long-term bearish sentiment towards the dollar [3]. - The risk of a US government shutdown and speculation regarding the Federal Reserve chairmanship have further weakened global investor confidence in dollar assets, prompting European capital to reduce exposure to US assets [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The currency market has shown significant reactions, with the euro rising to 1.2081 and the pound reaching 1.3869, both marking four-year highs [4]. - Precious metals have surged, with gold nearing $5000 per ounce and silver showing significant gains, as investors seek to hedge against dollar depreciation [4]. - The US Treasury market is under pressure, with the 30-year Treasury yield hitting a new high since September of the previous year, reflecting weakened confidence in US debt [4]. Group 3: Diverging Market Perspectives - Optimists believe that a weaker dollar will eventually boost US exports and that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates, providing implicit support for the dollar [4]. - Some analysts argue that the current decline has already priced in some negative factors, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound as European economic recovery slows [4]. - Cautious analysts highlight the risks associated with Trump's "chaotic policies," the US's $38 trillion debt, and the $10 trillion refinancing pressure, which could further undermine the dollar's reserve status [5]. Group 4: Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions will play a crucial role in determining the dollar's trajectory, with a focus on maintaining independence or delaying interest rate cuts potentially alleviating the dollar's decline [5]. - Geopolitical developments, particularly regarding the Greenland dispute and US-European relations, will influence the risk premium associated with the dollar [5]. - The pace of capital withdrawal from Europe, the resolution of US debt issues, and the consistency of Trump's policies will reshape the dollar's performance near its four-year low [5].