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米兰出任美联储理事获美参议院确认
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 07:47
随着米兰就任美联储理事,特朗普总统对于美联储货币政策的干预能力在提升,但是特朗普总统尚未获 得对于美联储的完全的掌控权。不过,随着美联储重启降息,美元的走软趋势大概率会延续,而且走软 的强度会加深。目前,美元指数已经降至97附近。笔者认为,美元指数仍然有相当的下降空间。这会在 美国资本市场,乃至全球资本市场掀起不小的波澜,引发一系列的动荡。 JerryZang 免责声明:本文内容及观点仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。一切有关市 场的准确信息,请以相关官方公告为准。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 据媒体9月16日消息,由美国总统特朗普提名的斯蒂芬-米兰的美联储理事一职已经获得美国参议院投票 通过批准。这意味着,米兰可以参加本周三(9月17日)的美联储9月议息会议,并拥有投票权。 一段时间以来,特朗普总统一直在向美联储主席鲍威尔施压,希望美联储尽快降息。市场普遍认为,在 即将召开的美联储9月议息会议上,美联储会重启降息进程,不过降息的幅度可能为25个基点。 不过,就在昨天(9月15日),特朗普总统预测,美联储本次降息幅度可能会达到50个基点。但是,从 美联储主席鲍威尔一贯在货币政策方面的谨慎态度 ...
美上诉法院允许库克暂时继续担任美联储理事
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 06:22
与此同时,美国参议院15日批准白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事,填补阿德里安 娜·库格勒8月辞职留下的空缺,完成其将于明年1月结束的任期。 米兰计划在担任美联储理事期间继续担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席。(完) 据美国媒体报道,哥伦比亚特区巡回上诉法院当日作出上述裁决。美联储将于16日至17日召开货币政策 会议。如最高法院未裁决,库克将参加美联储此次议息会议并投票。 新华社华盛顿9月16日电 美国联邦上诉法院15日阻止总统特朗普解除美联储理事莉萨·库克职务,允许她 暂时继续担任美联储理事。 ...
美联储,大消息!
证券时报· 2025-09-16 01:32
Core Points - The U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Milan as a member of the Federal Reserve Board with a vote of 48 to 47 [1] - Milan is expected to participate in the Federal Reserve meeting starting on September 16, which is anticipated to discuss a new round of interest rate cuts [2][3] Group 1 - Stephen Milan previously served as a senior economic policy advisor at the U.S. Treasury during Trump's first term and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard University [2] - The Federal Reserve announced on August 1 that Governor Kugar would resign, effective August 8, and Trump nominated Milan to fill the vacancy [2] - The Federal Appeals Court ruled to prevent Trump from dismissing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook before the monetary policy meeting [3] Group 2 - Lisa Cook faced allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denied, and has filed a lawsuit against her dismissal [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on September 16 and 17 is widely expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts [3]
美国8月零售销售或逆势增长 消费韧性成经济关键支撑
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 22:37
Group 1 - The overall performance of the US economy in August was weak, with rising unemployment and inflation, but consumer spending is expected to be a bright spot, with retail sales projected to grow by 0.2% month-on-month [1] - High-income households are playing a crucial role in supporting consumer spending despite economic weaknesses, as increased household wealth from a bull market and rising home prices allows for continued spending [1] - The unemployment rate in August rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, with a significant downward revision of nearly 1 million jobs in employment estimates for 2023-2024 [1] Group 2 - Retail sales have shown resilient growth over the past year, with consumer spending in August increasing by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year, indicating strong consumer resilience [2] - There is a divergence between weak job growth and strong consumer spending, which may not be sustainable in the long term; the future economic direction will depend on whether consumer spending or the labor market adjusts first [2] - Executives from major companies express optimism about consumer resilience, suggesting that as long as the right products or services are available, consumers will continue to spend actively [3] Group 3 - Future months will require attention to tariff policies and their impact on consumer behavior, especially with the holiday shopping season approaching, as rising prices due to tariffs could challenge consumer spending [3] - The upcoming retail sales data is critical ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, with a strong or weak retail sales report likely to influence market expectations regarding future monetary policy [3]
美国非农就业数据大幅下降 ,远超市场预期,企业面临用工短缺
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 16:23
阅读此文之前,请您点击一下"关注",既方便您讨论和分享,又能给您带来不一样的参与感,感谢您的 支持 本文陈述所有内容,皆有可靠来源赘述在文章结尾 美国8月非农报告,引爆市场惊天谜团! 新增就业远低于预期,但更惊人的是,全职岗位雪崩式消失,兼职却潮水般涌来,劳动力市场呈现出一 种畸形失衡的状态。 美国 8 月非农数据整体概况 是政策的调控,还是行业结构的转型,亦或是其他更深层次的缘由?这一切都值得我们细细去剖析,去 探寻隐藏在数据背后的真相。 劳动力市场的具体表现 就拿工作岗位来说,全职工作岗位数量锐减了 35.7 万个,这一数字仿佛是一个警示信号,暗示着就业 市场的稳定性正面临挑战。 与之形成鲜明对比的是,兼职工作岗位却飙升了 59.7 万个,如此大的反差,不禁让人好奇,是什么促 使人们更多地选择兼职工作,是出于灵活就业的考量,还是全职岗位的稀缺导致的无奈之举呢? 8 月的美国非农数据,让整个经济领域都为之震动。原本市场预期新增非农会达到 7.5 万之多,可实际 情况却只有 2.2 万,这巨大的落差偏离了 - 2.68x 标准差,着实令人咋舌。 不仅如此,前值的变动也颇为复杂,从 7.3 万修正为 7.9 万 ...
美联储9月利率决议前瞻:降息重启,联储临变
Tebon Securities· 2025-09-15 09:17
Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The market anticipates a 96.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 3.8% chance of a 50 basis point cut[5] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to update the dot plot, indicating three rate cuts in 2025, including the September cut, each by 25 basis points[5] - If the rate cut outlook is lower than expected, U.S. Treasury yields may rise sharply, impacting high-performing tech growth sectors significantly[5] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights potential adjustments in economic data, particularly an upward revision of the unemployment rate, and slight adjustments in inflation expectations and GDP outlook[5] - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to oil price spikes[8] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in maintaining its independence amid political pressures and market volatility, which could affect the credibility of the dollar[5] Group 3: Market Impact - The FOMC meeting's focus on the rate cut outlook and economic projections is expected to have a significant impact on the market[5] - A dovish stance from the Fed could harm its independence and subsequently impact the credibility of the dollar[5] - If the Fed's future rate cut outlook is weaker than expected, the current market's rate cut trading strategy may face significant risks, potentially increasing market volatility[5]
黄金股票ETF(159322)日内反弹超1%!黄金行情放大器备受关注
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 02:41
Group 1 - UBS raised its gold price forecast for the end of 2025 by $300 to $3,800 per ounce and for mid-2026 by $200 to $3,900 per ounce, citing expectations of a loosening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar related to interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks [1] - The gold ETF holdings are expected to exceed 3,900 tons by the end of 2025, approaching previous record levels, driven by increased confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset amid declining trust in dollar assets and ongoing regional risks [1] - As of September 11, gold futures prices have significantly increased, attracting over 100 billion yuan in capital, with a cumulative increase of over 17 billion yuan in September alone [1] Group 2 - As of September 12, the gold stock ETF fund has seen a net value increase of 52.20% over the past six months, ranking 67 out of 3,610 index stock funds, placing it in the top 1.86% [4] - The gold stock ETF fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, closely tracking the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index, which includes 50 large-cap companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Index account for 66.52% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [6]
张佳炜:9月FOMC前的主角团
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 08:19
芦哲、张佳炜(芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员) 核心观点 核心观点:8月美国新增非农2.2万,较预期的7.5万偏离-2.68x标准差,前值由7.3万上修至7.9万,前两月累计下修2.1万。本次修正后的6月新增非农由初值 的14.7万下调至-1.3万,为2021年以来首次转负。失业率4.324%,预期4.3%,前值4.248%。结合多个数据,我们认为当前美国劳务需求延续有序走弱, 同时保持供需双弱的畸形平衡,这导致非农新增就业的走弱程度较失业率的走高程度更加明显。8月非农数据作为9月FOMC会议前的主角团之一已经亮 相,剩余三位(9月9日的非农初值校准、9月10日的PPI、9月11日的CPI)的表演将决定9月FOMC会议将转向更鸽派(9月降息50bps)还是更鹰派(9月 降息25bps,但点阵图指引鹰派)。向前看,未来两周市场仍然处于数据密度更大、质量更差的宏观环境中,建议关注处于低位的VIX和过于乐观且可能 回落的降息预期。 8月非农:大幅不及预期,市场风格由降息交易切换至衰退交易。8月美国新增非农2.2万,较预期的7.5万偏离-2.68x标准差,前值由7.3万上修至7.9万,前 两月累 ...
Juno markets:美元需要全球冲击才能复苏?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 10:25
法国和日本的政治危机削弱了美元的主要竞争对手欧元和日元的强势。法国和日本首相的辞职以及巴黎即将举行的议会选举,让美元 暂时摆脱了货币政策的影响。美联储进一步放松货币政策的可能性正在迅速增加,此前美联储公布了创纪录的3月份就业数据修正,就 业岗位较之前的预期减少了91.1万个,8月份生产者价格指数也意外下降。 联邦法院允许美联储委员丽莎·库克出席9月份的联邦公开市场委员会会议的裁决,正在帮助美元走强。唐纳德·特朗普希望削弱美元, 因此总统的任何失利都可能成为买入美元的信号。这其中也包括利用美联储独立性进行交易的策略。 过去五周,美元指数几乎没有在97-98的窄幅区间波动。这种拉锯战取代了六个月的下行趋势以及随后在7月份的反弹尝试。在这种情 况下,横向走势是一个看跌信号。从中期来看,当前的走势可能最终演变为修正性反弹,其微弱的波动(甚至未达到初始跌幅的 76.4%)表明卖方力量强劲。与此同时,美元处于13年上升趋势线的支撑位,即使维持在同一水平也会导致跌破该线。 鉴于市场日益预期美联储将进行4-5次降息,而其他央行预计不会效仿,Junomarkets有基本面依据认为美元将在新财年开始时恢复跌 势。 在全球经济扩张 ...
周六福拉升逾7%破顶 国际金价站上新高 机构称金价上涨将正面拉动珠宝公司利润率
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-12 02:43
Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Chow Tai Fook (06168) has risen over 7%, reaching a new high of 53.75 HKD, driven by strong international gold prices and positive market sentiment towards gold jewelry companies [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since September, international gold prices have shown strong performance, with the New York COMEX gold futures reaching a historical high of 3715.2 USD/ounce on September 10, marking the first time gold prices surpassed the 3700 USD threshold [1] - Analysts from CITIC Securities maintain an optimistic outlook on the international gold price trend for the remainder of the year, suggesting that future price increases will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing [1] Group 2: Impact on Jewelry Companies - The rise in gold prices has led to increased prices for gold jewelry, with several brands maintaining prices around 1060 RMB per gram for gold ornaments as of September 8 [1] - East Wu Securities noted that gold products possess both consumption and investment attributes, providing solid consumer demand support [1] - While the continuous rise in gold prices may disrupt consumption volume to some extent, it is expected to positively impact the profit margins of gold jewelry companies, indicating that the overall effect on their performance will be beneficial [1]