有色金属日报 2025-12-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币延续走强，贵金属上涨和对供应缩减的担忧带动铜价冲高，昨日伦铜收涨 0.65%至 12133 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 95020 元/吨。LME 库存减少 1550 至 157025 吨， ...

Group 1 - The U.S. job market is experiencing a "no firing, no hiring" trend as 2025 approaches, with job stability becoming a major concern for workers [1][3] - According to a Mercer survey, job stability is now the second biggest concern for U.S. workers, following the ability to pay monthly living expenses, reflecting a disconnect between individual perceptions and macroeconomic data [3][4] - The U.S. GDP grew by 4.3% year-on-year in Q3, yet many Americans feel economic pressure due to high inflation and rising living costs, leading to increased anxiety about job security [3][4] Group 2 - The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, with new job creation concentrated in the healthcare sector [4] - A Michigan University consumer confidence survey indicated that 63% of respondents expect unemployment to rise next year, contributing to a nearly 30% decline in consumer confidence compared to the previous year [5][6] - U.S. household debt reached a record high of $18.6 trillion in Q3 2025, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [7][8] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to only lower interest rates once or twice in 2026, which may not provide significant relief for indebted Americans [7] - The household debt report shows that mortgage balances account for the largest share of debt at $13.07 trillion, while credit card debt stands at $1.23 trillion and auto loans at $1.66 trillion [7][8] - The credit market is exhibiting "K-shaped" economic divergence, where high-income groups benefit from a booming stock market, while low-income families face financial pressures [8]

2025年12月25日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.61%，收于 22330 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-270 元/吨， LME 价格 2965.5 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境偏暖和海外供应扰动为价格提供支撑，但下游开工率维持低位，现货跟涨乏力，预计铝 | | | 价维持震荡整理。 | | | 风险提示：海外供应扰动。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.35%，收于 2554 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 78 元/吨。 | | 氧 | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂运行产能保持稳定。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产。 | | 化 | 交易策略：氧化铝运行产能维持高位，库存持续攀升，叠加铝土矿、煤炭价格持续下行，成本支撑力度有限， | | 铝 | 预计价格维持震荡偏弱。 | | | 风险提示：几内亚矿端扰动，大规模集中减 ...

齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵金属市场走势进行了深度解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属 性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的主导力量，白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成支撑，结合 海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性风险。 今日周三(12月24日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于16.084一线上方，今日开盘于15.757元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报16.269元/克，上涨3.22%，最高触及16.418元/克，最低下探15.755元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 【最新纸白银行情解析】 关键转折点可能出现在2026年年中。刘旭峰分析，美联储主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，市场 预计"鸽派"色彩浓厚的凯文.哈塞特将接任，若其当选，那么美联储货币政策宽松节奏就可能加快。同 时，为应对经济下行压力与史上最长的政府"停摆"事件，美联储已重启扩表，但需警惕流动性边际收紧 的潜在风险。 日图来看，纸白银早盘价格延续上涨轨道，持续突破新高，目前已经来到16元关口，DMI显现有回落风 险，但整体上涨趋势强劲，纸白银走势下方关注15.0-15.50支撑，上方关注16.40-16. ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan warned that if the U.S. central bank does not continue to lower interest rates next year, it may increase the risk of the economy falling into recession [2] - Milan indicated that recent employment data suggests the unemployment rate "may be higher than previously expected," which could prompt the Fed to continue adjusting its policy towards easing [2] - Since joining the Federal Reserve Board in September, Milan has advocated for larger rate cuts, and his term will end in January [2] Group 2 - The Fed has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points since September, and the necessity for a further 50 basis point cut at the next meeting has diminished, although Milan has not made a final judgment [2] - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points has revealed significant internal divisions regarding future policy paths, with most officials expecting only one more cut next year [2] - Concerns remain among some regional Fed presidents about inflation being nearly one percentage point above the 2% target, while rising unemployment exacerbates worries about a potentially weakening labor market [2]

有色金属日报 2025-12-24 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 【行情资讯】 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 陈仪方 从业资格号：F03152004 0755-23375125 chenyf3@wkqh.cn 离岸人民币走强，美元指数偏弱，贵金属延续上涨，铜价创历史新高，昨日伦铜收涨 1.21%至 12055 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 94890 元/吨。LME 库存增加 825 至 158525 吨，注 ...

（原标题：见证历史了！黄金、白银、铜都创下新高） 【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 美股走势反复，美国商务部公布数据显示，美国第三季度经济增速按年化计算为4.3%，显著好于道琼 斯调查经济学家预期的3.2%。报告显示，美国经济以两年来最快速度扩张，令交易员更加相信美联储 在1月将暂停本轮宽松周期。 这份报告原定于10月30日发布，但由于创纪录的美国政府停摆而延期。数据"意外强劲"可能让市场担 心：美联储在2026年初降息的可能性变小。 分析师表示："如果经济持续以这样的水平增长，就没那么需要担心经济放缓，市场的焦点反而可能重 新回到'价格稳定'这个约束上来。" 货币市场下调了对2026年降息的押注：市场预计美联储在1月降息的概率只有17%。但 CME"FedWatch"工具显示，市场整体仍大体计入了到明年年底累计两次降息的预期。 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银一度上涨2.4%，首次突破每盎司70美元；黄金 则逼近每盎司4,500美元，在创下逾一个月来最大单日涨幅后继续走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief analyst of precious metals at Qisheng Futures, Liu Xufeng, believes that the commodity attributes of precious metals are likely to replace their financial and monetary attributes, becoming the main driving force behind price movements [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The widening supply-demand gap for silver may provide price support [1] - A key turning point in the precious metals market could occur around mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The expected appointment of Kevin Hassett, who is perceived as dovish, to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in May 2026 may accelerate the pace of monetary policy easing [1] - The Federal Reserve has resumed balance sheet expansion in response to economic downturn pressures and the longest government shutdown in history, but there are potential risks of marginal tightening in liquidity [1]

在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第七期中，齐盛期货贵金属首席分析师刘旭峰就2026年贵 金属市场走势进行了深度解读。他认为，贵金属的商品属性有望取代金融与货币属性，成为驱动价格的 主导力量，白银供需缺口的扩大或对价格形成支撑，结合海外宏观环境变化，投资者需重点关注流动性 风险。 白银供应短缺或延续 刘旭峰表示，2021年—2025年，全球白银市场已连续5年处于供应短缺状态，缺口分别为2468吨、7762 吨、6240吨、4632吨和3659吨。短缺的主要矛盾源于需求端增长，尽管新冠疫情后全球经济增速放缓影 响了需求扩张，但供需矛盾并未完全解除。 展望2026年，刘旭峰认为，白银需求有望迎来结构性回暖。一方面，投资需求或随市场情绪改善而复 苏；另一方面，人工智能、AI及算力设备等新兴领域的快速发展，将带动连接器、触点等对白银及银 合金镀层的工业需求。此外，政策层面亦为白银基本面提供支撑。2025年11月7日，美国地质勘探局正 式将白银列入关键矿产清单，这一举措预计将进一步扩大2026年白银的供需缺口，强化其商品属性的定 价逻辑。 刘旭峰表示，美元信用体系的长期影响力呈现弱化趋势，全球央行持续的购金 ...

The U.S. economy just delivered a blockbuster third quarter, but traders are already betting that the pace will start to cool sharply.SPY ETF is trading near record highs. Check live chart here.Prediction markets reacted quickly after the stronger-than-expected growth data, raising wagers on slower growth in the fourth quarter and potentially into 2026 despite the headline surprise.Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace in the third quarter of 2025, crushing expectations of 3.3% and accel ...