Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In November, China's refined copper production is expected to stabilize, and consumption is expected to seasonally recover. With an increase in scrap copper substitution, supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance. Overseas demand is expected to be neutral, and the increase in smelter maintenance and production cuts will ease the supply pressure. Meanwhile, changes in US imports need to be monitored. At the macro - level, Sino - US economic and trade relations have entered a period of relaxation, and the Fed's monetary policy will remain in a loose direction. Therefore, although the US government's continued shutdown and the correction of the US stock market at a high level are expected to be only short - term shocks, the reopening of the US government is expected to boost market sentiment again. Overall, with the tight supply pattern at the mine end, the center of copper prices will rise compared to before. If the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases, copper prices are expected to strengthen again in a volatile manner. The operating range of the main contract of SHFE copper this month is 84,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M copper is 10,400 - 11,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips. [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Highlights Summary - **Supply**: In Q3, overseas copper mine production fell short of expectations, and copper mine supply remained tight, while the supply of blister copper was marginally relaxed. In October, China's refined copper production decreased, and it is expected to stabilize in November. - **Demand**: In October, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have declined year - on - year, and the apparent consumption in November is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and demand expectations are neutral. - **Imports and Exports**: In October, the export window for进料加工 of SHFE copper opened, the price difference between US copper and LME copper narrowed, and the arbitrage window for US copper closed. - **Inventory**: In October, the inventories of SHFE, bonded areas, and COMEX increased, while LME inventory decreased, and the total inventory rose. It is estimated that China's inventory will not change much in November. [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In October, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Supply disruptions in copper mines, progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations drove copper prices to hit record highs. During the month, the main contract of SHFE copper rose 4.69%, and the LME 3M contract rose 5.78%. The US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly. At the beginning of November, copper prices fell from record highs. - **Price Differences between Markets**: In October, the import loss of SHFE copper first widened and then narrowed, and the export window opened once. At the beginning of November, the import loss further narrowed. In October, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper fluctuated and declined. Although the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the price difference, the continuous inventory build - up in COMEX gradually closed the import arbitrage window. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of October, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 680,000 tons, an increase of 67,000 tons from the end of September. The total inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years, but there were still structural inventory problems (COMEX inventory accounted for a high proportion, about 47.5%). LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory continued to rise. In terms of basis, in October, the Cash/3M in the LME market first rose and then fell; the domestic basis first rose and then declined, and at the beginning of November, the spot price had a slight premium over the futures price. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of October, the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds increased, and the sentiment remained relatively positive. The position of SHFE copper first rose and then fell, and the current position was still at a relatively high level, with intense long - short games. In November, the impact on market sentiment is expected to mainly come from inventory and changes in US policies. [17][20][23][26][29] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mine**: The copper mine production of 17 medium - and large - sized copper mine enterprises in Q3 was about 3.497 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. Mine accidents, ore grade problems, etc. led to production falling short of expectations, and the year - on - year decline in mine production in Q4 is expected to further expand. In September, Chile's copper production decreased year - on - year and rebounded month - on - month, and the production was at a low level. In October, the inventory of copper concentrates at major ports in China first decreased and then increased, and the spot supply at ports was first tight and then loose. In terms of processing fees, the spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined in October, and the spot TC at the end of October was reported at around - 42 US dollars/ton. In November, it is the time for long - term contract negotiations, and it is expected that both supply and demand sides will be in a stalemate. [34][37] - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In October, the processing fee for domestic blister copper turned up, and the rise in copper prices drove up the processing fee. The supply of raw materials for refined copper production was marginally relaxed. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in mainstream domestic regions, fluctuated and rebounded, remaining at a relatively high level, making a positive contribution to smelting revenue. In October, the number of smelter maintenance activities increased, and China's refined copper production continued to decline month - on - month. In November, the impact of copper smelter maintenance is still there but is decreasing marginally. Coupled with the increase in the number of scrap copper to produce blister copper/anode plates due to the rise in copper prices, refined copper production is expected to stabilize. [42][44] - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In October, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 3,580 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. Without the full implementation of local tax refund policies, scrap copper had a good substitution advantage. In October, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises fluctuated and rebounded. The widening of the refined - scrap price difference and the marginal easing of policy impacts in some regions drove the operating rate to rebound, increasing the substitution for refined copper. [48] - **Demand - China**: Assuming a decrease in net imports, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in October is estimated to be 1.321 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 13.674 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China weakened month - on - month in October, and the manufacturing prosperity weakened marginally. In the first nine months of 2025, China's copper product output increased by about 9.6%, and the growth rate declined month - on - month. According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper products weakened in October and is expected to rebound in November. In October, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises was weak, and the average operating rate was lower than that of the same period last year. The current operating level has not returned to the level before the National Day. The operating conditions of domestic wire and cable enterprises in October were weaker than expected, and the operating rate is expected to rebound in November. In September, the year - on - year decline in power investment (power source + power grid) continued, and the decline slightly expanded. The newly installed photovoltaic capacity continued to decline year - on - year and increased month - on - month, while the newly installed wind power capacity declined month - on - month. Near the end of the year, relevant demand is expected to improve marginally. High - frequency data shows that in October, domestic real estate transaction data was weaker than that of the same period last year, and the production scheduling of household appliances at the back - end of the real estate market remained weak; the high - frequency sales performance of automobiles in October was strong. [51][54][57][60][65] - **Demand - Overseas**: In October, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. India, the Eurozone, and the UK improved, while the manufacturing prosperity of the US and Japan weakened. According to ICSG data, in August 2025, the global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month and continued to increase year - on - year. From January to August, consumption increased by about 5.9%. [68] 3.4 Macro Analysis - The US government shutdown led to the postponement of the release of non - farm data. Recently released ADP data and the number of corporate layoffs show that the US job market is weak. In September, inflation rose and core inflation declined. Due to the lack of data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, but the probability is still close to 70%. At the same time, the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet on December 1st, and the marginal loosening direction of the policy remains unchanged. - In October, the US dollar index rebounded and is still oscillating within the range; the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US is running weakly, still deviating from the copper price trend. [72][74]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, official inflation data is missing, causing some Fed officials to be concerned about the future monetary policy direction. Policy - makers should be more cautious in the case of data absence and reduced economic "visibility" [1] - The market's risk - aversion sentiment towards tariffs has subsided, which may slightly reduce the demand for gold investment. However, the increased volatility of risk assets may support the gold price in the short term. Gold is still a substitute for the U.S. dollar, so the gold price is expected to be in a slightly stronger oscillating pattern. The silver price shares the same macro - logic as gold, with slightly stronger fluctuations and the gold - silver ratio is expected to narrow [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The U.S. federal government shutdown has led to the suspension of official inflation data release, making some Fed officials worried about the follow - up monetary policy. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is increasingly uneasy about further rate cuts due to the lack of key price data. Cleveland Fed President Hammack believes that high inflation is not conducive to further rate cuts and thinks current monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with inflation [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On November 6, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 913.50 yuan/gram and closed at 917.80 yuan/gram, a 0.61% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 920.30 yuan/gram and closed at 915.24 yuan/gram, a 0.28% decline from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 11,297.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,427.00 yuan/kilogram, a 1.34% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 571,201 lots, and the open interest was 245,863 lots. In the night session, it opened at 11,449 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,359 yuan/kilogram, a 0.60% decline from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On November 6, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.081%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.526%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On November 6, 2025, in the Au2512 contract, the long positions changed by 70 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by - 856 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 323,905 lots, a - 30.13% change from the previous trading day. In the Ag2512 contract, the long positions changed by 515 lots, and the short positions changed by 837 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,027,806 lots, a - 26.10% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - On the previous day, the gold ETF position was 1,038.63 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,151 tons, a decrease of 17 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On November 6, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 2.60 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 993.90 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 80.32, a - 0.72% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 83.28, a - 0.38% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On November 6, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 40,590 kilograms, a - 31.84% change from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 460,064 kilograms, a - 9.58% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 28,080 kilograms [7] Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will be in an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern, and the Au2512 contract may oscillate between 900 yuan/gram and 930 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is also expected to be in an oscillating pattern, and the Ag2512 contract may oscillate between 11,100 yuan/kilogram and 11,600 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short - term, the price has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold their bottom positions cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US dollar index, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil all declined. The number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in October reached a 20 - year high. Concerns about AI investment returns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials increased market panic about a potential economic recession. The US government shutdown also added to market unease. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.845 per ounce, down 0.37%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11427 yuan per kilogram, up 1.99%. The US announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper, silver, uranium, and potash [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 28.2%. For March 19, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.1%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a 75 - basis - point cut is 11.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16.2 tons to 640 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, at 16:00 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB money market conference [4]. 4. Price, Inventory, and Market Data 4.1 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan/gram | 917.8 | 5.54 | 0.61% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan/gram | 917.51 | 7.98 | 0.88% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars/ounce | 3984.8 | - 5.6 | - 0.14% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan/kilogram | 11427 | 151 | 1.34% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan/kilogram | 11421 | 181 | 1.61% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars/ounce | 47.845 | - 0.015 | - 0.03% | | SHFE - TD Gold | Yuan/gram | 0.29 | - 2.44 | - 89.38% | | SHFE - TD Silver | Yuan/kilogram | 6 | - 30 | - 1000% | | CME Gold - Silver Ratio | / | 83.2856 | - 0.0909 | - 0.11% | [7] 4.2 Inventory and Position Data | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilogram | 87816 | 0 | 0% | | CME Gold Inventory | Ton | 1177.1807 | - 1.0722 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lot | 137883 | - 3545 | - 2.51% | | SPDR Gold Position | Ton | 1040.35 | 1.72 | 0.17% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Ton | 639.94 | - 16.23 | - 2.47% | | CME Silver Inventory | Ton | 14975.342 | 0.3139 | 0% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Ton | 830.31 | - 74.925 | - 8.28% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lot | 245863 | 1589 | 0.65% | | SLV Silver Position | Ton | 15114.027615 | - 36.682 | - 0.24% | [15][17] 4.3 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview | Product | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.7056 | - 0.4536 | - 0.45% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Point | 46912.3 | - 398.7 | - 0.84% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 59.43 | - 0.17 | - 0.29% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars/ton | 10687 | - 46 | - 0.43% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.11 | - 0.06 | - 1.44% | | 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.83 | - 0.04 | - 2.14% | | 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.54 | 0 | 0% | [22]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, raising questions about whether it has reached a turning point and what larger shifts may be forthcoming [1] Market Dynamics - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have been dramatic, with prices dropping from $4025 to $3945, and domestic prices falling from over 1000 to just above 900 [3] - Despite the loss of confidence among retail investors, central banks continue to buy gold, with China increasing its reserves by several tons over three months, indicating a long-term value recognition [3] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, currently at a 3.75% interest rate, adds uncertainty to the gold market, contributing to its volatility [3] Investor Behavior - Investor experiences vary widely, with some suffering significant losses while others profit through strategic buying at lower prices [4] - A specific investor strategy involves buying when prices dip and selling during rebounds, demonstrating the potential for profit even in a volatile market [4] Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for gold is concerning, with a two-week decline in weekly prices and a critical support level at $3850; a breach of this level could lead to further declines [4] - The largest gold fund recently reduced its holdings by four tons, and a decrease in trading volume has raised suspicions among market participants [4] - Current gold prices are fluctuating between $3960 and $4045, with a focus on the $4030 weekly closing price as a potential pivot point [4] Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices remains uncertain, heavily influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy decisions; a failure to lower interest rates could lead to a sharp decline in prices [5] - Historical precedents show that unexpected events, such as government shutdowns, can lead to significant price increases, adding to the unpredictability of the market [5] - Investors are advised to adopt cautious strategies, including phased buying and strict stop-loss measures, while closely monitoring key price levels to navigate the volatile gold market [5]

美国政府停摆已经进入第36天，刷新1879年以来最长纪录！13000名空管、50000名TSA安检员无薪上 岗，航空公司已经炸锅。美国运输部长达菲放出狠话：如果本周五前还谈不拢，就从周五开始对40个主 要机场削减10%的计划航班！这意味着全美航空即将陷入大混乱，航班大面积延误、取消就在眼前。避 险情绪瞬间点燃黄金！市场也不乏利空消息：美国10月ADP小非农大超预期，新增就业4.2万个，高于 市场预估的2.8万个；10月ISM非制造业PMI更是飙升至52.4，创下今年2月以来最高水平。新订单指数 强劲，服务业活动全面开花。数据一出，市场瞬间"鹰"声四起，美联储12月降息概率从上周的95%暴跌 至62%，周三一度只有58%！美元指数盘中冲高100.36，创5月29日以来新高；10年期美债收益率暴涨 1.86%，收盘4.16%，创10月7日以来最高。需要提醒的是，但好于预期的ADP数据可能并不意味着劳 动力市场发生了实质性变化，因为一些行业，例如专业商业服务业，已经连续第三个月裁员，但确实有 助于缓解人们对劳动力市场疲软的担忧。短期看，美元200日均线压力、美债收益率冲高，都会给金价 制造波动；但中期看，政府停摆无 ...

Core Insights - The ADP employment number for October in the U.S. increased from a previous value of -29,000 to 42,000, surpassing the expected value of 28,000, although it remains at a historical low [2] - The significant rise in employment numbers amid the government shutdown, which has led to missing non-farm payroll data, increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in December [2] - The current uncertainties facing the U.S. economy are increasing rather than decreasing, making the economic outlook more ambiguous and significantly raising risks [2] Economic Policy Implications - The Federal Reserve is perceived to be lagging behind economic trends, often reacting to economic data rather than proactively shaping monetary policy, which amplifies economic volatility [2] - The potential for "black swan" events poses additional negative shocks to the U.S. economy, suggesting a less optimistic outlook [2] Market Sentiment - The quote from Warren Buffett highlights the idea that the true vulnerabilities in the economy may only become apparent when economic conditions worsen, raising questions about who may be unprepared for such challenges [2]

美国10月份制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）显示，美国制造业活动有所放缓，PMI从9月的49.1降至 48.7，低于市场预期的49.5。尽管这一数据给美元带来一定压力，但美国政府停摆所带来的不确定性为 避险资产提供了部分支撑。投资者目前聚焦即将发布的10月ADP就业数据，若数据疲软，可能为黄金提 供短期支撑。 美元强势与美联储政策：市场普遍预期美联储将在12月维持利率不变，这将继续支撑美元走强，从而限 制黄金上涨的空间。投资者应密切关注美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员的讲话，寻找关于未来货 币政策的更多线索。 在周二亚洲交易时段，黄金价格再度跌破4000美元，未能延续前期的反弹。美联储主席鲍威尔近期的讲 话中重申，今年是否再次降息"不确定"，市场对降息预期大幅下降，这助推美元进一步走强。随着美元 走高，黄金的吸引力受到压制，特别是在美联储的鹰派态度下，黄金价格难以突破上行阻力。 中国的增值税政策调整进一步削弱了黄金的短期需求，尤其是零售市场的影响尤为明显。该政策实施 后，国内黄金交易活动受限，多个国有银行暂停黄金兑换与开户，令市场情绪变得更加谨慎。这一政策 对全球最大实物黄金买家之一的中国短期需求造成压力， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, after a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the central bank's restart of trading treasury bonds is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - For precious metals, with the Fed's indication of future easing policies, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper prices are expected to be supported at the bottom; aluminum prices may be supported by supply - side disturbances; zinc and lead are expected to be strong in the short - term; nickel is recommended to be observed in the short - term; tin is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to go long on dips; the lithium carbonate market is expected to oscillate after a correction; alumina is recommended to be observed; stainless steel is expected to continue to be weak; and casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strongly supported [12][14][17][19][21][24][26][29][30][32]. - For black building materials, steel demand is in the off - season, but future demand may recover. Iron ore prices are at risk of a phased decline. Glass and soda ash markets have different supply - demand situations and price trends. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend. Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices are affected by supply and demand and are expected to be weak in the short - term [35][37][39][41][45][47][50]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended for short - term long trading with a stop - loss set. Oil prices are recommended to be observed in the short - term. Methanol, urea, and PVC are recommended to be observed. Pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. Ethylene glycol is recommended to be shorted on rallies. PTA is recommended to focus on processing fee repair opportunities. PX is recommended to be observed as it mainly follows crude oil fluctuations [56][58][60][63][65][70][72][75]. - For agricultural products, it is recommended to short pigs on rallies; eggs are expected to be strong in the short - term; bean and rapeseed meal are expected to rise in the short - term and be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term; palm oil is recommended to be treated as oscillating weakly before exports improve; sugar is recommended to be shorted after a rebound; and cotton is expected to continue to oscillate [83][85][88][90][93][95]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on November 5th. The 2025 6G Development Conference will be held in Beijing from November 13th - 14th. Apple tightened its China - region distribution channels. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley warned of a decline in the US stock market in the next two years, while expressing continued interest in China from global capital allocators [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different terms are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After a continuous rise, the hot sectors are rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the main line. The long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On November 3rd, Fed governors mentioned potential interest rate cuts. US financial system liquidity is approaching a dangerous level. On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The central bank's restart of trading treasury bonds is short - term positive for the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver prices fell. COMEX gold and silver prices are provided. US 10 - year treasury bond yields and the US dollar index are given. The Fed is expected to expand its balance sheet, and silver demand in India is strong [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the Fed's indication of future easing policies, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips, and the reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver are provided [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The US dollar index reached 100, and copper prices continued to correct. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot trading showed different situations. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although sentiment is under pressure, it is expected to be supported. The copper supply is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for copper prices. The reference operating ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are provided [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The decline in precious metals and copper prices led to a decline in aluminum price optimism. LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices fell. Aluminum inventories showed different trends, and the spot was at a discount to the futures [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in electrolytic aluminum production and the improvement in trade and inventory conditions are expected to support aluminum prices. Short - term support levels are to be noted [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Shanghai zinc index rose slightly, and LME zinc prices also increased. Zinc inventories and basis data are provided [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc mine inventory declined, and zinc production decreased. Downstream demand was stable, and inventories were slowly increasing. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be strong in the short - term, but the upside space is limited [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Shanghai lead index fell slightly, and LME lead prices decreased. Lead inventories and basis data are provided [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead ore inventory declined, and lead production showed different trends. Downstream demand was weak, and inventories were at a low level. It is expected that Shanghai lead will be strong in the short - term [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated and fell. Spot prices and cost data are provided [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Refined nickel inventory pressure is significant, and nickel prices are dragged down. In the long - term, nickel prices may be supported. Short - term observation is recommended, and long positions can be considered at appropriate prices [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: Shanghai tin prices fell. Tin inventories increased, and supply was affected by raw material shortages. Demand from emerging fields provided support [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term tin supply - demand is in a tight balance, and prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to go long on dips, and the reference operating ranges are provided [24]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The lithium carbonate spot index and futures prices fell. The production and sales of new energy vehicles increased [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals lack continuous positive factors. After a correction, the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to ore prices and production schedules [26]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell, and trading volume increased. Basis, overseas prices, and inventory data are provided [27][28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices may be under pressure after the rainy season. Alumina production capacity is in excess, but the current price is close to the cost line. Short - term observation is recommended, and the reference operating range is provided [29]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and raw material prices are provided [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel spot is relatively firm, but the demand is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to continue to be weak [30]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices fell, and trading volume decreased. Inventory data are provided [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has strong support, and supply is tight. Prices are expected to be strongly supported [32]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Futures and spot prices, as well as inventory and trading volume data, are provided [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market was weak, and steel prices oscillated weakly. Although demand is in the off - season, it may recover in the future with policy implementation and macro - environment changes [35]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, and demand weakened. Inventory pressure increased. There is a risk of a phased decline in ore prices [37]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass Market Information**: Glass prices rose, and inventory decreased. Trading volume data are provided [38]. - **Glass Strategy Viewpoint**: Market sentiment was boosted, but the fundamentals are weak. The impact of policies and production cuts needs to be observed [39]. - **Soda Ash Market Information**: Soda ash prices fell, and inventory decreased. Trading volume data are provided [40]. - **Soda Ash Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry's high - capacity utilization rate and weak demand lead to weak price trends. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [41]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices fell. Spot prices and basis data are provided [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Macro events did not provide strong support for the market. The black sector's rebound was adjusted. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend [43][44][45]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and trading volume increased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [46]. - **Industrial Silicon Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is under pressure, and demand is weakening. Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term, but cost support exists [47]. - **Polysilicon Market Information**: Polysilicon prices fell, and trading volume decreased. Spot prices and basis data are provided [48][49]. - **Polysilicon Strategy Viewpoint**: Polysilicon production is expected to decline, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. Attention should be paid to platform company progress [50]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly sorted. There were different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. Tire production and inventory data, as well as spot prices, are provided [52][53][54][55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Rubber prices are near the previous low. Short - term long trading with a stop - loss set is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil prices fell. Inventory data are provided [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although geopolitical premiums have disappeared, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices fell, and basis data are provided [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Port prices fell, and inventory was high. Supply increased, and demand weakened. Observation is recommended [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices showed different trends in different regions, and basis data are provided [61][62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Urea supply and demand increased, but the market is in a relatively loose pattern. Observation is recommended [63]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Pure benzene and styrene prices showed different trends. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Pure benzene and styrene prices may stop falling. The BZN spread has room for upward repair [65]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rallies [67][68]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is high, and inventory is expected to increase. It is recommended to short on rallies [70]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to PTA processing fee repair opportunities [72]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices rose, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [73][74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene supply is high, and demand is weak. PXN is expected to be under pressure in November. Observation is recommended [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PE prices are expected to oscillate at a low level. The impact of cost and supply - demand factors needs to be considered [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PP prices are affected by cost and supply - demand factors. The market is in a weak pattern, and short - term observation is recommended [79][80]. Agricultural Products Category Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices continued to fall, and supply and demand factors are provided [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short pigs on rallies. Cautious investors can use reverse - spread positions [83]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable, and supply and demand factors are provided [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices are expected to be strong in the short - term. Observation or short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to upper - level pressure [85]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean and bean meal supply, demand, and cost data are provided [86][87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Bean meal prices are expected to rise in the short - term and be shorted on rebounds in the medium - term [88]. Oils - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil production and export data are provided. Domestic oil consumption is expected to enter the peak season, and inventory is expected to decrease seasonally [89]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Palm oil prices are expected to be oscillating weakly before exports improve. A change in strategy can be considered if production declines [90]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated, and Brazilian sugar production data are provided [91][92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short sugar after a rebound due to strong supply and weak external market trends [93]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and price data are provided [94]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cotton prices are expected to continue to oscillate due to weak fundamentals [95].

Group 1 - Nvidia's market value dropped by approximately $20.14 billion (about 1.4378 trillion RMB) overnight, with its stock price falling over 4% [2] - Major technology stocks, including Nvidia and Intel, experienced declines, contributing to a mixed performance in the U.S. stock indices [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.95%, with notable declines in popular stocks such as NIO and Baidu, which dropped over 5% and 4% respectively [4][6] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that monetary policy decisions will be made based on evolving economic conditions rather than a predetermined path [6] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from July's prediction, while maintaining the 2026 growth rate at 3.1% [6] - Market expectations indicate a 97.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, following a previous cut announced on September 17 [7]

今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年11月4日的黄金深入分析 黄金/美元短期技术展望 现货黄金周一在$4,000附近交易，受限于一个相对狭窄的日内区间。金融市场在美国政府持续停摆和随之而来的数据缺乏中，努力寻找新的催化剂。 投资者继续对美联储（Fed）最新的货币政策公告进行定价，该公告因主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔对12月降息的怀疑而显得鹰派。因此，美元（USD）对大多数主 要货币保持坚挺，而股市则承压，撰写时美国股指表现混合。 私人数据显示，美国的制造业产出在十月份相当稳定。一方面，标普全球制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）上调至52.5，超过预期的52.2。另一方面，ISM 制造业PMI在同一时期从9月份的49.1降至48.7，也低于预期的49.5。 总体而言，每个月的第一周通常是美国就业相关数据的高峰期，但由于联邦停摆，这次大部分数据不会发布。私人ADP就业变动调查将照常发布，但在接 下来的几天内不应期待其他数据。 此外，投资者将关注澳大利亚储备银行（RBA），预计将在周二早些时候宣布其货币政策决定。市场普遍预期RBA将维持利率不变，这对金融市场的影 响有限。相反，政策制定者接下来计划的任何暗示可能 ...