据中国驻韩国大使馆网站消息，4月25日，韩国NEWS1通讯社发布韩国知名国际关系问题专家、全球战略合作研究院院长黄载皓教授对戴兵大使的专访。采 访全文如下： 中方反复强调，中美经贸关系的本质是互利共赢。关税战、贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路，脱钩断链只会孤立自己。对于关税战，我们不愿打，但也 不怕打。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。 我注意到韩美24日举行了"2+2"磋商，韩国国内许多观点认为韩应审慎应对。各国国情不同，中方尊重各方通过平等磋商解决与美方的经贸分歧。同时，中 方坚决反对任何一方以牺牲中方利益为代价同美达成所谓交易。各方都应站在公平正义的一边，对美错误行为，国际社会不能听之任之，否则所有国家都会 沦为受害者。 二、您如何评价韩中经贸关系？近年不少韩企撤离中国市场，一些韩国舆论也对中国技术进步和产业升级感到担心，您怎么看这个问题？未来双方可在哪些 领域加强合作？ 经贸合作一直是中韩关系的"压舱石"。30多年来，双方发挥各自优势，不断深化务实合作，实现互利共赢，并推动两国产供链深度互嵌，已形成你中有我、 我中 ...

据美国彭博社报道，贝森特近日在摩根大通于华盛顿举办的一场闭门投资者会议上表示，与中国的关税僵局是"无法持续的，没有人认为目前状况能够持续 下去"。据与会人士透露，贝森特称中美贸易争端"本质上相当于贸易禁运"，这"对金融市场造成不稳定，并引发对通胀和经济增长的担忧"。贝森特还安抚 投资者，他预计对华关税战"将在短时间内缓和"。但他承认，目前与中国的谈判尚未开启，而且这场谈判将会是一场"持久战"。 其实特朗普很清楚，美国经济的繁荣很大程度上是建立在美债之上的，而美债的基础则是美元霸权。现在特朗普对全世界加税，美国股市暴跌，债券市场异 动，老百姓们去超市抢购，爆发抗议游行。同时外部中国已经开始反制，欧盟也有所动作，加征关税带来的反弹比想象中严重得多。所以特朗普看似不靠 谱，但已经意识到，不能再拖了，不能真的把美国彻底带向深渊。但是他依然炫耀称："那些国家纷纷打电话来，亲我的屁股，他们急着达成协议，说求求 您了，别加我们关税，你让我们做什么都行"。 特朗普（资料图） 中美关税战升级后，美前国务卿布林肯选择了痛斥特朗普。布林肯认为，无论特朗普想实现什么目标，都必须用"聪明"的方式去做，而不是发起关税战，因 为最终为关税 ...

据新民晚报报道，美国总统特朗普又准备变了。这次说，对华145%关税确实很高，如果与中国谈下来能够达成协议，那 美对华关税就会大幅下降，但不会降至零。外交部发言人郭嘉昆对此做出回应。中方回应不出所料："中方早就指出，关 税战、贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路，'脱钩断链'只会孤立自己。对于美国发动的关税战，中方的态度很明确，我 们不愿打，也不怕打。打，奉陪到底；谈，大门敞开。" 特朗普（资料图） 4月，媒体公布了美国老百姓对他的最新民调，显示54%的民众不满意特朗普的经济政策，他刚上台时只有37%。另外多 个民调显示，特朗普目前的支持率只有40%-45%，低于80年来其他所有美国当选总统前三个月的民调数字。就在此时华 尔街日报透露，特朗普开始考虑把对华关税普遍降到50%-65%。同时改变关税一刀切的问题，开始分层分级实施关税。 凯投宏观首席中国经济学家普里查德指出，从市场层面来看，美国正在承受更大的压力，美方更有迫切的动力推动谈判 回到正轨。与此同时，多位分析人士也认为，特朗普政府推行的高关税政策对美国本土经济造成的负面影响已超出预 期，在通胀与不确定性上升的背景下，白宫可能不得不重新评估现行政策，调整策略以寻 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the strategic misjudgment by the U.S. regarding China, highlighting that the U.S. underestimated China's determination and response to tariffs [1][3] - It mentions that the U.S. has faced significant challenges in its trade war with China, with American retailers warning about the consequences of ongoing tariffs [1][5] - The article indicates that China has successfully shifted its orders from the U.S. to other countries, making it difficult for the U.S. to revert to previous trade conditions even if it softens its stance [7] Group 2 - The article points out that the U.S. is struggling with internal economic pressures, including the Federal Reserve's decision not to lower interest rates amidst a challenging trade environment [5] - It emphasizes that the U.S. has not secured any new trade agreements with other countries, which complicates its position in the ongoing trade conflict [7] - The article suggests that the timeline for significant changes in U.S. trade policy is limited, as the upcoming midterm elections may restrict the administration's ability to enact substantial reforms [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade conflict is described as a "struggle," with a call for emergency plans to assist affected businesses and accelerate policy easing measures [1] - The report highlights the need for Beijing to adopt bolder actions to address unprecedented challenges, including cleaning up the real estate sector and reforming the pension system to support consumption sustainably [5] - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and prices, particularly in light of the significant tariffs imposed by the US [9] Summary by Sections Economic Policy Measures - The report urges the implementation of "more proactive macroeconomic policies" and emphasizes the need to accelerate policy execution [6] - It suggests that the government should expedite the use of special bonds issued by local and central governments [6] - The report maintains predictions for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 15 basis point interest rate cut in the second quarter, with similar actions expected in the fourth quarter [6] Support for Affected Industries - New structural monetary policy tools and financial instruments will be introduced to support technological development, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade [8] - A new relending plan will be launched to promote service consumption and elderly care services [8] - The leadership has committed to increasing the unemployment insurance fund's return ratio to support employment stability for businesses severely impacted by tariffs [8] Agricultural and Labor Market Stability - The report stresses the need to enhance domestic agricultural production to stabilize prices of essential goods, especially in light of the US's high tariffs on Chinese imports [9] - It highlights the challenges posed by the low substitutability of certain US-imported agricultural products and the time required for domestic production adjustments [9] - The report underscores the importance of providing multifaceted support to struggling enterprises, including improving financing channels [10]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's government has clearly stated its intention to resist the U.S. efforts to form an "economic cooperation mechanism to contain China," emphasizing that it will not compromise its economic relationship with China for the sake of negotiations with the U.S. [1] Economic and Trade Relations - China has been Japan's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, with a trade volume expected to reach $370 billion in 2024, accounting for 20% of Japan's total foreign trade [2] - Japan's exports to China primarily consist of technology-intensive industries such as automobiles and semiconductor equipment, while China is a crucial source of rare earths and electronic components for Japan, with rare earths making up 60% of imports and electronic components 40% of Japan's supply chain [4] - Japanese automakers like Honda and Toyota derive 35% of their global profits from the Chinese market, indicating that a withdrawal from China could result in annual losses exceeding $40 billion for Japan's automotive industry [4] Strategic Resource Dependency - China controls 70% of global rare earth processing capacity, which is vital for Japan's electronics, high-end manufacturing, and defense industries [6] - Japan's precision instruments and core components are deeply embedded in China's manufacturing supply chain, creating an inseparable interdependence between the two nations [6] Japan's Refusal to Choose Sides - Japan faces significant economic constraints, with government debt totaling 300 trillion yen (approximately 300 billion USD) and a projected GDP growth rate of only 1.2% in 2024. The trade surplus with China, expected to reach $32 billion in 2024, is crucial for Japan's foreign exchange reserves and macroeconomic stability [10] - Despite being a U.S. ally, Japan adopts a pragmatic approach in strategic coordination, exemplified by its "differentiated execution" strategy in chip export controls, allowing exports of mature process chips to China to maintain its industrial competitiveness [10] - Japanese companies have invested over $1.3 trillion in China, creating 1.5 million jobs, with major corporations like Toyota and Sony pressuring the government to ensure stable market access to China [10] Global Implications - Japan's stance highlights the limits of alliance relationships when core economic interests are at stake, revealing inherent contradictions in unilateral alliance systems [11] - The deep economic interdependence between China and Japan demonstrates the resilience of globalized supply chains, suggesting that forced decoupling could lead to a lose-lose situation [11] - In the context of intensifying great power competition, smaller nations are increasingly adopting a "multi-balancing" strategy to maintain strategic autonomy [11] Future Outlook and Challenges - Japan's ability to maintain its "balancing act" will depend on effectively addressing strategic differences with the U.S. and structural conflicts with China [11] - Potential U.S. pressure through increased tariffs or security issues may force Japan to make difficult choices, while competition in sectors like semiconductors and new energy could pose new challenges to economic relations [11] - For China, continuing to expand openness and strengthen its advantages in key areas of the supply chain, particularly in rare earth processing and new energy markets, remains essential for navigating external changes [11]

编者荐语： 日经中文网与36氪开展内容交换合作。将精选36氪的精彩独家财经、科技、企业资讯，与读者分享。 以下文章来源于36氪 ，作者李勤 徐蔡钰 36氪是服务中国新经济参与者的卓越品牌和开创性平台，提供新锐深度的商业报道，强调趋势和价值，我们的slogan是：让一部分人先看到未来。 不再相互依赖，是危险的信号。 文 ｜ 李勤 徐蔡钰 编辑 ｜ 杨轩 封面来源 ｜ Reuters 2024年11月，特朗普当选那一周，特斯拉的研发1号位Lars Moravy带队在中国拜访供应链。 他们已经准确嗅到，新总统关税战故技重施的信号，开始动员中国的特斯拉供应商，向东南亚等地分散产能，以应对即将到来的关税巨浪。 亿纬锂能、欣旺达等电池工厂，均收到明确信号，在泰国接连发起了数轮投资。但显然，特斯拉猜到了开头，没有猜中结尾。特朗普的关税之锤，以飓风 之势砸来。 36氪 . 2025年4月2日，特朗普宣布设立10%的"最低基准关税"，其中对中国输美产品的关税继续叠加，由34%、84%、104%，一路上涨到目前的145%税率。 特斯拉Cybertruck不少关键零部件仍然来自中国，未来得及转移。 相较之下，关税新风暴下，中国汽车 ...

以下文章来源于大地期货研究院 ，作者大地期货研究院 大地期货研究院 . 大地期货研究院官方订阅号 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 蒋硕朋 许安静 来源 | 大地期货研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 核心观点 01 1. 美国关税政策最新进展 中美贸易冲突继续升级 中美互加关税，目前美国对中国商品的整体关税税率来到 145% ，中国对美国的进口商品关税税率加征到 125% ，在如此高的关税税率下，中美 经常项目的贸易基本接近"脱钩"。 中国出口至美国的化工品关税高达 167% 。主要集中在塑料及其制品、矿物燃料、矿物油及其蒸馏产品、有机化学品、杂项化学品以及橡胶及其 制品等领域，关税的大幅提高将对我国出口占比较高的塑料、航空煤油以及橡胶等制品需求存在显著影响。 中国从美国进口的能源化工品主要集中在丙烷、聚乙烯、乙二醇、天然气、原油、煤以及催化剂等领域，主要为化工原材料、初级加工品以及化工 产品生产过程中使用的催化剂。其中从美国进口量占中国总进口比例超过 10% 的有五个品种，分别是乙烷、丙烷、 PE 、乙二醇和丁烷。 由于中国乙烷进口来源的单一性，后期只能以转口的形式规避脱钩的影响，但产业链的 ...

文/广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家 连平 在关税问题上，美方针对中国的态度在一个月之内从极限施压和竭力孤立 迅速地转变为高举白旗寻求谈判，美方的葫芦里究竟卖的什么药？中美之 间的贸易战将如何演进？我方应怎样积极应对？ 2025年，特朗普执政后不久就面向全球开打关税牌，中国则是其关税大棒的主要目标。自4月初以来，美国针对全世界实施"对等关税"。针对中国的税率 在两次加征10%之后，又加征34%的"对等关税"。在受到中国反制后，又匪夷所思地将从中国进口商品的关税提高至100%以上，最终成为荒唐的数字游 戏。近日美方又戏剧性表示中美之间可以进行关税谈判，甚至可以在较短时间内达成协议。在关税问题上，美方针对中国的态度在一个月之内从极限施压 和竭力孤立迅速地转变为高举白旗寻求谈判，美方的葫芦里究竟卖的什么药？中美之间的贸易战将如何演进？我方应怎样积极应对？笔者将谈些看法。 "脱钩"模式下美方将难有所获并陷入困境 特朗普政府高举关税大棒不可能无的放矢。 加征关税既是手段，也是目的。 一般认为，美国加征关税的短中期动机，一是削减贸易逆差。目前美国对世 界各国的贸易逆差在2024年达到1.2万亿美元。在特朗普看来，贸易逆差即 ...

文/广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家 连平 在关税问题上，美方针对中国的态度在一个月之内从极限施压和竭力孤立 迅速地转变为高举白旗寻求谈判，美方的葫芦里究竟卖的什么药？中美之 间的贸易战将如何演进？我方应怎样积极应对？ 2025年，特朗普执政后不久就面向全球开打关税牌，中国则是其关税大棒的主要目标。自4月初以来， 美国针对全世界实施"对等关税"。针对中国的税率在两次加征10%之后，又加征34%的"对等关税"。在 受到中国反制后，又匪夷所思地将从中国进口商品的关税提高至100%以上，最终成为荒唐的数字游 戏。近日美方又戏剧性表示中美之间可以进行关税谈判，甚至可以在较短时间内达成协议。在关税问题 上，美方针对中国的态度在一个月之内从极限施压和竭力孤立迅速地转变为高举白旗寻求谈判，美方的 葫芦里究竟卖的什么药？中美之间的贸易战将如何演进？我方应怎样积极应对？笔者将谈些看法。 "脱钩"模式下美方将难有所获并陷入困境 美国政府征收高额关税本质上具有财政紧缩效应，至少存在阶段性的收缩效应。 企业和消费者将最终 承担关税成本，投资和消费的意愿和能力必将下降；未来市场的不确定性会持续存在，观望情绪会持续 升温；再加上供给短缺和 ...