【环球网财经综合报道】临近年底，部分A股投资者趋于稳健，多位分析人士表示，叠加市场短期缺乏催化因素，业 内机构倾向于短期或以震荡蓄势为主，红利、大市值风格或是较优选择。 彭博社近日发文称，全球基金管理公司如安盛集团和摩根大通看好中国市场，认为外国投资者的需求增强，而随着盈 利改善和通缩压力缓解，科技巨头和消费行业都有反弹潜力。尽管存在估值差异，市场扩张的一部分动力来自国内储 蓄和政府支持，中国家庭的巨额存款和监管支持下的保险公司需求可能成为市场上涨的关键。 报道还提出，根据摩根士丹利的数据显示，今年11月，外国长期投资基金在香港和中国内地购买了约1000亿美元的股 票，逆转了2022年1700亿美元的流出。流入资金完全来自追踪指数的被动投资者，而主动基金经理则退出了大约1500 亿美元。 对此，新加坡富达国际的组合经理乔治·埃夫斯塔休洛普洛斯认为："中国已经走出了困境，展现出更大的韧性，投资 者越来越接受一个可以提供多元化和创新的'可投资'中国。我现在更倾向于在市场下跌时买入中国股票。" 美国银行亚太区股票策略主管吴妮则表示："中国的下一波上涨将由全球基金驱动。" 中信证券则表示，去年"9.24行情"以来，两 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that while short-term sentiment may not have much room for speculation, long-term investment value remains certain, providing confidence for a slow bull market [1][22] - The article highlights that the financial sector, particularly non-bank financials, resources, and cash flow, presents opportunities for low-cost positioning, with a focus on overseas markets being favored by institutions [1][12] - Recent market movements were influenced by significant regulatory announcements and unexpected positive news, such as Baidu's AI chip business planning an IPO in Hong Kong and several companies obtaining general export licenses [5][22] Group 2 - The article notes that the market is currently in a state of balance between bulls and bears, requiring new positive stimuli to drive momentum [9] - It mentions that the overall financing enthusiasm remains weak, with a lack of clear direction in capital flows [10] - The article discusses the impact of regulatory benefits on the securities industry, which is expected to lead to a strong opening for related ETFs, although there may be short-term profit-taking opportunities [13][22] Group 3 - The article outlines expectations for monetary easing in response to economic indicators, with potential implications for resource and traditional manufacturing sectors [15] - It highlights the strong performance of the semiconductor market, with a significant year-on-year increase in sales, and anticipates rising copper prices due to demand [17] - The article also mentions the inclusion of innovative drugs in the medical insurance directory, which could benefit domestic pharmaceutical companies [18]

当前的市场震荡可能是基本面超预期变化出现前的常态，债市的调整导致股债平衡型策略在当下遭遇一 定挑战，对控制持仓波动率可能有更高的要求，也间接影响到股票配置策略。未来人民币的潜在升值压 力可能会带来超预期的货币宽松，这可能是超预期变化的来源并打破震荡格局，在此之前，配置上延续 资源/传统制造业定价权的重估和企业出海两个方向。 中信证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，超预期的内需变化出现前，震荡和结构性机会的轮动是常 态，资源/传统制造业在全球定价权的重估仍然是潜力的被低估的方向。去年"9.24行情"以来，两轮市场 水位的整体抬升都伴随着融资规模的系统性抬升，合计净增了1.11万亿元，远超去年10月以来公募和私 募主观多头产品新发总规模。在这两波行情当中，主要宽基和景气行业都完成了绝大部分涨幅。如果剔 除两轮融资的大幅上升阶段，其他时间市场基本是横盘震荡，在震荡期还能实现有效上涨的板块主要是 量化驱动的微盘、保险驱动的银行、涨价推动的有色以及管线出海推动的创新药。 其他时间市场大多横盘震荡，实现上涨的板块仅有微盘指数、银行、有色和医药 1）剔除两轮融资大幅上升的阶段，市场基本维持震荡轮动的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous improvement of China's manufacturing industry's global pricing power and economic profit share is expected to lead to a sustained appreciation of the Renminbi, with predictions of reaching 6.8 against the US dollar by 2026. To mitigate the potential negative impact of rapid Renminbi appreciation on export-oriented manufacturing, proactive monetary easing is deemed necessary [1]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The anticipated monetary easing may lower real interest rates and stimulate domestic demand, which is essential for breaking the current market stagnation and achieving further growth by 2026 [1]. - Prior to this, market fluctuations and structural opportunities are expected to be the norm in the A-share market, with a focus on sectors that have global exposure and profit growth potential [1]. Group 2: Sector Recommendations - In the resources and traditional manufacturing sectors, there is optimism for leading companies in industries where China holds a competitive advantage, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy, emphasizing the narrative of "supply internalization and external demand for profit" [1]. - Companies expanding overseas remain a crucial avenue for profit and market capitalization growth, as A-shares transition from a domestic emerging market focus to a global mature market perspective, despite the increased resonance with overseas risk assets and economic environments [1]. - From a high-to-low perspective, less crowded sectors such as cinema, securities, aviation, liquor, and hotels, along with direct increment stocks like banks, thermal power, and oil & petrochemicals, are also viable options [1]. - Close attention is advised for policy changes during the upcoming Political Bureau meeting and economic work conference at the end of the year [1].

贵金属市场更会说话，白银冲到了近59美元，刷新历史新高，黄金也不甘示弱，伦敦和COMEX的价格都在走高，这不是单纯的避险，更是一种对未来货币 宽松的押注，资金在寻求价值储存，美元预期走软，贵金属便有人捧场，市场逻辑简单直接降息，意味着钱更便宜，贵重金属就有理由闪耀。 美股涨，银价飙，降息的影子在市场上跳舞，这是新闻，更是情绪，这就是我要说的开场白，够直白吧。 美国11月私营部门竟然减少3.2万个岗位，这数字像一盆冷水泼在市场脸上，让原本温热的预期瞬间升温成确定，市场把12月降息的概率从猜测变成了押 注，芝商所的工具显示，概率达89%，几乎成了公认事实。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4207.180 | 58.473 | 4238.6 | | +1.150 +0.03% | +0.041 +0.07% | +17.8 +0.42% | | COMEX白银 | SHFF音令 | SHEF自银 | 市场反应直接且有戏剧性，道指涨，纳指挣扎，科技巨头多数受压，微软掉了2.5%，英伟达和Meta也都有落差，但特斯拉倒是欢快地上涨4%，这说明什 么，不要 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The market is experiencing support for risk assets due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with major U.S. stock indices showing slight increases: Dow Jones up 0.50%, Nasdaq up 0.91%, and S&P 500 up 0.31% [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.55%, while Germany's DAX 30 rose by 0.80% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut, with market concerns about inflation persisting despite weak labor market data [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's dot plot and Chairman Powell's statements to gauge future rate cut trajectories, with the market pricing in 2-3 more cuts by 2026 [2] Group 3: Economic Data Releases - Upcoming economic data releases will provide insights into the U.S. labor market, including unit labor costs and job vacancy data on October 9, employment cost index on October 10, and initial jobless claims on October 11 [2] Group 4: Treasury Auctions - The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in 3-year notes, $39 billion in 10-year notes, and $22 billion in 30-year notes, testing investor demand for long-term bonds amid liquidity concerns [3] Group 5: Central Bank Policies - The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to signal a dovish stance due to high inflation, with the October CPI rising to 3.8% [4] - The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain rates amid economic challenges related to tariff negotiations with the U.S. [4] - The Swiss National Bank faces pressure to adopt a dovish policy due to weak GDP performance and negative PPI growth, despite some positive PMI and retail sales data [5][6] Group 6: Commodity Prices - International oil prices have stabilized, with WTI crude up 2.61% to $60.08 per barrel and Brent crude up 2.20% to $63.75 per barrel, amid geopolitical concerns [6] - Gold prices are fluctuating, with COMEX gold futures down 0.13% to $4,212.90 per ounce, as market focus remains on the Fed's monetary policy outlook [6][7] Group 7: Corporate Earnings - Key corporate earnings reports from Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, and Costco are anticipated, with concerns over excessive investment in AI and rising corporate debt impacting market sentiment [3]

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/12/05 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...

Core Insights - The latest CPI and GDP data from the Philippines indicate room for monetary easing [1] - Both overall and core inflation rates have cooled down, with overall inflation remaining below the central bank's target for nine consecutive months [1] - Economic growth in the third quarter has slowed to its lowest level in over four years [1] - The Governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines, Eli Remolona, has suggested that the slowing growth outlook increases the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - The bank expects the central bank to implement a final rate cut of 25 basis points in the first quarter of the following year to boost domestic growth momentum [1]

Group 1 - The OECD report indicates that major global economies have limited room for further interest rate cuts, with expectations to end the easing cycle by the end of 2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve is projected to lower the federal funds rate two more times by the end of 2026, bringing it down to a range of 3.25%-3.50% [1] - The Bank of England may halt rate cuts in the first half of next year, while the Eurozone and Canada are not expected to cut rates next year [1] Group 2 - David Chao from Invesco suggests that most central banks will adopt a more accommodative stance in 2023 and 2024, with significant policy rate reductions expected [1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is unlikely to continue cutting rates next year, as its deposit facility rate is already at 2.0%, below the neutral level of 3.0% [3] - The Swiss National Bank's policy rate has reached 0%, indicating that some European central banks are nearing the end of their easing cycles [3] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan is expected to normalize its extremely accommodative monetary policy, with two rate hikes anticipated by the end of 2026 [4] - The People's Bank of China has already initiated its easing cycle earlier than other central banks, suggesting limited room for further cuts [4] - Emerging markets may have more room for rate cuts as inflation decreases, contrasting with the situation in developed economies [4] Group 4 - The ECB has initiated its current easing cycle in June 2024, with eight rate cuts bringing its deposit facility rate down to 2.00% [4] - Recent data shows that the Eurozone's harmonized consumer price index rose by 2.2% year-on-year in November, indicating inflation remains above the ECB's target [5] - The Eurozone's service sector PMI reached 53.6 in November, reflecting economic resilience despite manufacturing sector weaknesses [5] Group 5 - Analysts are more aggressive than the OECD regarding the Fed's rate cuts, with expectations of 3-4 cuts in 2024, each by 25 basis points [6] - The potential for a more significant rate cut by the Fed is influenced by the core CPI remaining above 3% [6] - The upcoming selection of a new Fed chair could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, with Kevin Hassett being a potential candidate who favors aggressive rate cuts [7]

Core Insights - Recent US economic data has underperformed expectations, reinforcing market expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, which has boosted global risk appetite [1] - The focus is shifting towards the Bank of Japan, with expectations of a rate hike in December due to hawkish signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1][11] Market Performance - US stock index futures rose collectively, with the S&P 500 futures up 0.05%, Nasdaq 100 futures flat, and Dow Jones futures up 0.13% [2][3] - European stock indices opened higher, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.6%, DAX up 0.7%, and FTSE 100 up 0.2% [3] - The Nikkei 225 index closed up 2.3%, driven by gains in technology and semiconductor stocks [2] Bond Market Dynamics - US 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points to 4.08%, while Japan's 30-year bond yield reached a historic high of 3.445% [3][6] - The demand for Japan's 30-year bonds was strong, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 4.04, the highest since 2019, indicating robust investor interest despite fiscal concerns [6] Currency Movements - The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar amid expectations of a rate hike [11] - The Indian rupee weakened, hitting a historical low of 90.4175 against the dollar, as market sentiment remains subdued due to stalled trade agreement processes with the US [14] Commodity Trends - Gold prices fell by 0.2% to $4194.37 per ounce, while silver dropped over 1.7% to $57.46 per ounce [3][17] - WTI crude oil prices increased by over 0.3% to $59.33 per barrel [3]