宏观经济听起来深奥，似乎只出现在专家的嘴里。 但其实它无处不在，上面那个生活里的现象，就是最简单的通过宏观因素的变化，去判断某一类 资产的走势，然后进行相应购买决策。 以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 当物价飞涨，10元能买的东西现在要30元了，这是通货膨胀。 钱不值钱，人们开始抢购全球硬通货——黄金，金价随之攀升。 除了黄金这种大宗商品，还有两类最常见的资产：股票，债券。 它们的价格，也会受到各种宏观因素的影响而波动。 因为影响因素不同，在不同经济环境下它们的表现也大不相同，所以不同的资产间天然具备不相 关性。 比如，要是处于经济复苏周期，应该多买股、少买债，适当买点商品。 | | AB | BE | CE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 好济情况 | 鬼逃 | 題為 | 海花 | | PK | 少头 | 发 | 当即 | | 停 | 23 | 步 | 少乐 | | 24 | 少年 | | Jacks 3 3 3 3 | 这种对宏观经济进行分析，而后在全球范围内配置多种资产的策略，就叫宏观对冲策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current economic environment in China is experiencing deflation, contrary to predictions of inflation due to excessive money supply, with the CPI showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% in September [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan by the end of September 2025, which is double the GDP, indicating severe monetary overexpansion [1]. - The lack of money circulation in the economy is a primary reason for deflation, as excess money is not reaching the goods market but remains stagnant in the financial system [3]. - Consumer caution due to unstable incomes has led to reduced spending, resulting in significant inventory buildup and price reductions across various sectors [3]. Group 2: Advantages of Holding Cash - Individuals holding cash are experiencing increased purchasing power, with prices for essential goods like pork dropping from 25 yuan to 17-18 yuan per kilogram [7]. - Cash holders can effectively mitigate investment risks, as stock market volatility has led to significant losses for retail investors, with many public funds reporting losses of 20-30% last year [9]. - Cash provides a safety net for unexpected events such as job loss or medical emergencies, allowing individuals to manage expenses without immediate financial stress [11]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - In a deflationary environment, asset bubbles in the stock and real estate markets are expected to burst, presenting buying opportunities for those with cash [14]. - Cash holders can strategically position themselves for the upcoming economic growth cycle by making investments at lower prices during the deflation period [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the economic situation in October 2025 and the fourth - quarter economic outlook under the support of macro - policies. It predicts various economic and financial data such as industrial added value, social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, trade, inflation, GDP, and social financing credit [11]. - Although the third - quarter economic growth slowed down, with the implementation of policies like 5000 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments and 5000 - billion - yuan local government debt balance quota, the economy is expected to achieve the annual growth target of about 5% [11][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Added Value - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in October will be 5.5%. In October, the economic prosperity declined, still in the contraction range. The production and new order indexes decreased, and the new export order was at the second - lowest level of the year. The price index showed a "hot - upstream, cold - downstream" pattern, and the economic operation had obvious structural differentiation [13]. - Looking forward, high - tech manufacturing and consumer - related manufacturing are expected to maintain resilience. However, considering the possible weakening of policy effects in the fourth quarter, combined with the weak real estate and insufficient export momentum, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the fourth quarter is expected to be 5.3% [1][20]. 2. Social Retail Sales - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in October will be 3.0%. The real - estate post - cycle consumption and automobile sales in October may not provide strong support for social retail sales, but the service industry PMI is in the expansion range, and the consumer demand in industries such as transportation and entertainment is strong [26][28]. - In the fourth quarter, due to the weakening of the "trade - in" policy effect, slow income growth, and the high - base effect of the previous year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales is expected to be about 3.1% [2][28]. 3. Fixed - Asset Investment - It is estimated that the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in October will be - 0.7%. Infrastructure investment may decline in October, real - estate investment may continue to bottom out, while manufacturing investment maintains resilience [33][34][36]. - In the fourth quarter, fixed - asset investment is expected to continue to operate at a low level. Although policies such as new policy - based financial instruments and local government debt balance quota are in place, factors like the end of policy tool investment and the possible continued bottoming of the real - estate market may lead to a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of about - 0.5% [37]. 4. Trade 4.1 Export - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of exports in October will be 3.0%. Although the US has imposed additional tariffs on some industries, overall external demand remains resilient. The global manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50.8%. The export volume to the US decreased, while that to ASEAN countries remained strong. The fourth - quarter export year - on - year growth rate is expected to be 2.5% [42][44][48]. 4.2 Import - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of imports in October will be 3.0%. The import sub - item of the manufacturing PMI in October decreased, and the import is expected to decline compared with September. However, with the reduction of trade frictions and the release of domestic demand in the second half of the year, the annual import growth rate may turn slightly positive [50]. 5. Inflation - In terms of CPI, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of CPI in October will be flat. In October, the pork price continued to decline, while the agricultural product wholesale price increased significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of CPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about 0.3% [55]. - Regarding PPI, it is estimated that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in October will be - 2.2%. The price of upstream raw materials such as coal and steel fluctuated, while non - ferrous metals strengthened. The PPI in October is expected to show a trend of "month - on - month improvement and narrowing year - on - year decline", and the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about - 2.3% [62]. 6. GDP - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter will be 4.6%. In October, the manufacturing PMI showed a "weak supply and demand" pattern. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally, but the annual growth target of about 5% can be achieved [68]. 7. Social Financing Credit 7.1 Credit - It is predicted that the new credit in October will be 3300 billion yuan. In October, the bill rate fluctuated downward, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The new credit of various sectors is estimated as follows: enterprise short - term loans will increase by - 1500 billion yuan, enterprise long - term loans will increase by 1800 billion yuan, household short - term loans will increase by 100 billion yuan, household long - term loans will increase by 900 billion yuan, and bill financing will increase by 2000 billion yuan [74][86]. 7.2 Social Financing - It is expected that the new social financing in October will be 1.0 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is expected to be 8.6%. The net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 5500 billion yuan, the net financing of enterprise bonds is about 1900 billion yuan, and the non - standard financing is about - 1600 billion yuan. The M2 year - on - year growth rate in October is expected to fall to 8.0% [87][93].

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season in the U.S. is expected to be overshadowed by rising prices, trade tensions, and issues related to food assistance and healthcare, leading to significantly higher consumer costs compared to last year [1] Food Prices - The average cost of preparing a holiday meal for 12 people is projected to reach $362.80, a 5% increase from last year's $344.61 [2] - The average price of Thanksgiving turkey is expected to hit $2.05 per pound, resulting in a cost of approximately $31 for a 15-pound turkey, which is a 25% increase from the previous year [2] - Prices for roasted beef and steak have risen by 18.4% and 16.6% year-over-year, respectively [2] - Candy prices have increased by 8% to 10% due to a record shortage of cocoa beans, with tariffs on cocoa-producing countries further driving up chocolate prices [3] - Since January 2020, food prices in the U.S. have risen by approximately 26% [3] Holiday Decorations - Prices for holiday decorations are expected to rise by about 15% due to supply chain bottlenecks and tariff policies [4] - The National Tree Company has raised its product prices by 10%, attributing $6 to $7 million in additional costs to tariffs [4] - Consumers are expected to bear a significant portion of the increased costs, with estimates suggesting an additional $40 billion in holiday shopping costs due to new tariffs [4] Retail Sector Concerns - The ongoing decline in box sales has raised concerns about the performance of U.S. retailers during the holiday shopping season [5] - The third quarter saw the lowest shipment volume of corrugated boxes since 2015, with a year-over-year decline of 8.7% reported by Smurfit Kappa [6] - The weak demand for boxes, which are crucial for product transportation and display, indicates that retailers are adopting a more conservative approach to inventory and sales expectations for the holiday season [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a strengthening trend in the auto market retail at the end of the month, while production is restricted by environmental protection measures. The inflation situation features a bottom - oscillating pork price and an oscillatingly strong oil price [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month 1.1 Production: Environmental Protection Restricts开工 - **Production End: Slowing Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption** - On November 4, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 75.7 tons, a 1.4% decrease from October 28. On October 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 180.5 tons, a 2.9% decrease from October 22. Although the consumption has slowed down, industrial electricity consumption has increased due to the positive impact of Sino - US negotiations on the black - series products [5][12]. - **Production End: Local Sharp Decline in Blast Furnace Operating Rate** - On October 31, the national blast furnace operating rate was 81.7%, a 3.0 - percentage - point decrease from October 24, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, a 1.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 68.3%, a 25.1 - percentage - point decrease from October 24. The start - up rate has dropped significantly due to the start of heavy - pollution weather warnings in many places [15]. - **Production End: Moderate Decline in Tire Operating Rate** - On October 30, the operating rate of all - steel tires for trucks was 65.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from October 23, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires for cars was 73.4%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase. The operating rate of downstream looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions reached a new high for the year [17]. 1.2 Demand: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month - **Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities** - From November 1 - 4, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 155,000 square meters, a 145.6% increase from October, but a 53.3% decrease from November last year. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities decreased year - on - year [22]. - **Demand End: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month** - In October, retail sales increased by 6% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 7% year - on - year. In the fifth week of October, retail and wholesale reached daily averages of 155,000 and 210,000 vehicles respectively, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month growth [26]. - **Demand End: Weak Steel Prices** - On November 4, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 1.2%, 0%, - 2.4%, and + 0.3% respectively compared to October 28. Since November, these varieties have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes. Steel inventories are seasonally decreasing [31]. - **Demand End: Oscillatingly Strong Cement Prices** - On November 4, the national cement price index increased by 0.1% compared to October 28, but prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [32]. - **Demand End: Narrow - Range Oscillation of Glass Prices** - On November 4, the active glass futures contract price was 1,103 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease from October 28. Since November, glass prices have shown a month - on - month and year - on - year decline [37]. - **Demand End: Strong Increase in Container Shipping Freight Index** - On October 31, the CCFI index increased by 2.9% and the SCFI index increased by 10.5% compared to October 24. Since October, both indices have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [39]. 2. Inflation: Bottom - Oscillating Pork Price 2.1 CPI: Bottom - Oscillating Pork Price - **Pork Price Bottom - Oscillating** - On November 4, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from October 28. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, and the month - on - month decline has narrowed [45]. - **Slowing Growth Rate of Agricultural Product Price Index** - On November 4, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.9% compared to October 28. Different agricultural products showed different price changes. Since November, the index has shown year - on - year and month - on - month increases [51]. 2.2 PPI: Oscillatingly Strong Oil Price - **Oil Price Oscillatingly Strong** - On November 4, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 65.5 and 60.6 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 1.6% and 0.7% compared to October 28. OPEC's decision to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year supports the oil price [54]. - **Decline in Copper and Aluminum Prices** - On November 4, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.9% and remained flat respectively compared to October 28. Since November, they have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [58]. - **Most Industrial Product Prices Continue to Decline Month - on - Month** - Since November, industrial product prices have shown mixed changes. Most of the year - on - year declines have converged, but the year - on - year declines in cement and glass prices have widened [62].

Core Insights - Deposit account rates are declining, but competitive returns on certificates of deposit (CDs) can still be locked in, with the best CDs offering rates above 4% [1] Group 1: Current CD Rates - The best short-term CDs (six to 12 months) currently offer rates around 4% to 4.5% APY, with the highest rate at 4.1% APY available from several institutions [2] - Notable offers include Marcus by Goldman Sachs (14-month CD), Sallie Mae (15-month CD), Synchrony (9-month CD), and LendingClub (8-month CD) [2] Group 2: Historical Context - CD rates were relatively high in the early 2000s but began to decline due to economic slowdowns and Federal Reserve rate cuts, with average one-year CDs at around 1% APY by 2009 [3][4] - The trend of falling rates continued into the 2010s, with average rates for 6-month CDs dropping to about 0.1% APY by 2013 [4] - A slight recovery in CD rates occurred between 2015 and 2018 as the Fed gradually increased rates, but the COVID-19 pandemic led to emergency rate cuts, causing new record lows [5] Group 3: Recent Developments - Following the pandemic, inflation prompted the Fed to hike rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, resulting in higher APYs on savings products, including CDs [6] - As of September 2024, the Fed has started cutting the federal funds rate, leading to a decrease in CD rates from their peak, although they remain high by historical standards [7] Group 4: Understanding CD Rates - Traditionally, longer-term CDs offer higher interest rates, but currently, the highest average rate is for a 12-month term, indicating a flattening or inversion of the yield curve [8] - Factors to consider when choosing a CD include goals for locking away funds, type of financial institution, account terms, and inflation [9]

Core Viewpoint - The potential revaluation of the U.S. gold reserves is being discussed, which could have significant implications for the country's fiscal policy and the value of the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Possible Implementation - The U.S. federal debt has exceeded $37 trillion, and revaluing gold reserves could provide nearly $1 trillion in funding without issuing new debt, which is appealing under high debt and deficit pressures [3]. - The U.S. Treasury holds approximately 8,133 tons of gold, valued at about $110 billion based on 1973 pricing, but could exceed $1 trillion if revalued at current gold prices [3]. Group 2: Reasons Against Implementation - The potential funds from revaluing gold reserves are limited compared to the overall debt, making it a less effective solution [3]. - Revaluing gold could lead to significant side effects, including synchronized easing of fiscal and monetary policies, which may exacerbate inflation risks [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Historical Context - The market may interpret the revaluation as a desperate measure under debt pressure, potentially undermining the international credibility of the dollar [5]. - Historical precedents, such as the UK central bank's sale of half its gold reserves from 1999 to 2002, resulted in a significant drop in gold prices, indicating potential negative impacts on gold value [7]. Group 4: Alternative Strategies - Other countries have approached gold revaluation gradually, often pairing it with fiscal tightening measures to balance policy effects [5]. - Suggestions include establishing a sovereign wealth fund with revaluation proceeds or even selling part of the gold reserves to invest in higher-yield foreign assets [5].

Group 1 - The global gold market is currently experiencing a stalemate, with prices hovering around $3996 per ounce, unable to break the $4000 mark due to various unseen forces at play [1][10] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut has led to internal disagreements, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy, which is affecting market sentiment [3][10] - Historical concerns about inflation and potential changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve are contributing to a tense atmosphere in the gold market [5][10] Group 2 - China's new gold tax policy is adding complexity to the market, potentially making gold purchases more expensive and dampening demand [7][10] - The market is waiting for clarity on both the U.S. interest rate outlook and the implications of China's new policies, which are critical for future gold price movements [10][12] - The interplay between U.S. and Chinese policies is seen as the primary driver of market direction, rather than technical analysis [14]

Labor Market Assessment - The labor market is experiencing reduced supply, which may make weaker job growth more acceptable to the Federal Reserve and others [1] - There is a potential shedding of jobs due to overhiring during the pandemic [1][3] Productivity and AI Impact - Current productivity levels are uncertain, and many companies have not seen cash flow or profit boosts from AI investments, with 80% reporting no benefits [3] - The anticipated increase in productivity from AI has not yet materialized, leading to a realization among companies that they may be overstaffed [3][4] Cost Pressures and Margins - Companies are facing margin pressures from tariffs and other costs, which may lead them to either pass on costs to customers or cut costs elsewhere [2] - The balance of risks for the Federal Reserve is challenging, with no clear advantages from AI investments yet [5][6] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve committee is currently balanced, with more hawks than doves, indicating a cautious approach to policy decisions [7][8] - The absence of timely official data on employment and consumption may not lead to a dovish bias, as the Fed seems confident in overall growth despite some negative indicators [11][12]

Summary of AutoZone Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: AutoZone - **Shares Outstanding**: 16.7 million shares trading around $3,700 - **Market Capitalization**: $64 billion - **Net Debt**: $8.5 billion - **Total Enterprise Value**: Just under $73 billion - **CFO**: Jamere Jackson - **Director of Investor Relations**: Brian Campbell - **Industry**: Automotive aftermarket retail Key Points Consumer Behavior and Market Conditions - The consumer landscape has remained stable over the past year, with high new car prices averaging over $50,000 and monthly payments exceeding $700, leading consumers to maintain their current vehicles [2][3][4] - The average age of vehicles on the road is now 12.8 years, indicating consumers are holding onto their vehicles longer [5] - Despite some volatility and uncertainty in the marketplace, the low-end consumer segment has not deteriorated further [3][4] - Unemployment rates have ticked up to approximately 4.3%, but overall consumer resilience remains strong [4] Pricing Strategy and Inflation - AutoZone operates primarily in the break-fix business, with 85% of its sales in maintenance categories, allowing for disciplined pricing strategies [9][10] - The company has successfully maintained gross profit dollars and margins despite inflationary pressures, benefiting from the inelastic nature of its core products [11] - Inflation is expected to continue impacting pricing, with retail prices rising significantly across the industry [35] Regional Performance - Regional performance varies, with weather conditions affecting sales, particularly in the Rust Belt [12][14] - The company anticipates a good winter, which typically drives higher sales due to increased vehicle failures [15] Growth Initiatives - AutoZone is focusing on expanding its commercial business, which now constitutes about one-third of its U.S. sales mix, up from 19-20% five years ago [17] - The company is investing in inventory and building mega hubs, which carry close to 100,000 SKUs, to improve service levels and market share [18][19] - Expansion in Mexico is a key growth area, with plans to double the number of stores in the next decade [20][21] Sourcing and Supply Chain - AutoZone is diversifying its sourcing capabilities, reducing reliance on China from 85-90% to around 60% [23][24] - The company is working with suppliers to mitigate tariff impacts and maintain margin structures [24] Online Competition and Consumer Behavior - While online competition is growing, many consumers still prefer in-store visits for trustworthy advice and installation services [26][27] - AutoZone is enhancing its online presence and assortment to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [28] Tax Refunds and Economic Factors - Tax refund season is crucial for sales, with expectations of larger refunds potentially boosting business [43] - Weather conditions during tax refund season can significantly impact consumer spending [44] Conclusion - AutoZone remains well-positioned in the automotive aftermarket industry, leveraging its strong market presence, disciplined pricing strategies, and growth initiatives to navigate current economic challenges and consumer behaviors [1][19][20]