Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday the central bank is in a “challenging situation” with an ongoing risk of faster-than-expected inflation at the same time that weak job growth has raised concern about the health of the labor market.In comments prepared for delivery to Rhode Island’s Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce, Powell offered little indication of when he thinks the Fed might next cut interest rates, noting that there was danger to both cutting too fast and risking a new surge of in ...

Let's get to Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE and the pre-bell playbook. What's going on there. Good morning, Kevin. Good morning, Nicole.A quiet morning for futures and most uh products moving the markets this morning, but remember yesterday we opened down and fired higher the minute the market opened. So, a very quiet market to start the morning. You know, uh a lot of the futures are very close to unchanged.You've got 10-year yields slightly lower. You got the dollar slightly lower, but all very close to home ...

Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming economic indicators and corporate earnings as they may influence market movements [1] - A significant discussion between the U.S. President and President Xi of China regarding TikTok and potential trade deals is expected to impact stock prices [2] - Concerns are raised about the bond market following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts, which have led to declining bond prices and rising yields, potentially hindering the housing market [3] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, a key inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, is highlighted as crucial for understanding inflation trends [4] - The interpretation of inflation data is complicated by tariff-related distortions, and the Fed may delay rate cuts until there is clear evidence of controlled inflation [4] Stock Insights from Jim Cramer - Rocket Companies, Inc. (NYSE:RKT) is discussed in the context of potential benefits from falling mortgage rates due to rate cuts, but Cramer suggests Wells Fargo as a more favorable investment [9] - Okta, Inc. (NASDAQ:OKTA) is noted for its identity management solutions, but Cramer prefers Palo Alto Networks due to its acquisition of CyberArk [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points is seen as appropriate, with potential for further cuts by the end of the year, totaling 75 basis points [2][5]. Rate Cuts and Future Projections - The Fed's strategy includes monitoring inflation and job numbers, allowing for flexibility in future rate adjustments [3][6]. - Aiming for a total of 100 basis points in cuts within the next year, with a possibility of reaching neutral territory by the end of the first quarter [5]. Inflation Concerns - Current inflation remains in the high 2% range, and the Fed seeks assurance that it will trend down to the target of 2% [6][19]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is considered limited, as the foreign goods portion in the U.S. consumption basket is relatively small [8]. Market Confidence and Interest Rates - The credibility of the Fed is crucial for maintaining lower long-term interest rates, as market confidence in the Fed's policies influences the yield curve [10][11]. - Political pressure to lower rates quickly could undermine the Fed's control over long-term rates, leading to increased inflation risk premiums [14][15]. Neutral Rate and Economic Growth - The neutral federal funds rate is estimated to be around 3% to 3.25%, while some argue it could be 100 basis points lower, providing more maneuvering room for the Fed [17][18]. - Anticipated economic growth in the coming years may add inflationary pressure, necessitating careful policy considerations [19][20].

美联储降息的靴子终于落地了，降息 25 个基点。 那么这次的降息有何特殊性呢？对于我们普通老百姓有什么影响？全球经济下一步会怎么走？我们一起来分析分析。 美联储为什么要重启降息？ 我想有两个原因，台面上的原因就是最近的美国就业的数据不太好。当然这个很复杂，因为美国换了就业的统计指标，谁也搞不清楚，但是美联储感到了压 力，所以说要重视就业。 我认为更深层次的、更根本的一个原因，就是美联储现在扛不过白宫的压力，现在美联储的独立性受到了挑战。 当然这里面我认为他有风险，就不就业这个事情先不聊，这数据不清楚，但是你现在不能 100% 肯定的讲，你是通货膨胀下降了，通货膨胀还有上升的风 险。 我到美国转了一圈，我最主要的一个感觉，就是劳动力市场非常吃紧，就是有工作找不到人干，很多人可能不想干活了，不知什么原因，干活的人大量的都 是英语讲不好的。 特朗普要求你必须给我降息，必须要保证我经济能够稳定，股市能够稳定，这是潜台词，保证明年11月的中期选举我能够给一份期中考试的答卷，这是压 力。 最近白宫对美联储搞了很多动作，包括美联储的一个理事，她的资格问题，个人背景调查，直到这次议息会前两天，各党派还在为参会的人选争争斗斗。 ...

Asian markets struggled Tuesday to track another record day on Wall Street, with traders now awaiting the release of US inflation data that could dictate Federal Reserve policy in coming weeks.The tepid performance came after a hot couple of weeks on trading floors fuelled by optimism over an easing of US monetary policy.Last week's interest rate cut came with Fed forecasts for two more before the end of the year as officials aim to shore up the stuttering labour market despite elevated inflation.That puts ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：非关税因素导致通货膨胀超出预期水平。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold futures opened at $3,768.30 per ounce on Thursday, reflecting a 1% increase from Wednesday's close of $3,732.10 [1] - The current price of gold is up 3.1% from the opening price of $3,654.60 one week ago and has increased 12% from the opening price of $3,366 on August 25, 2025 [4] - Over the past year, gold has risen 41.9% from the opening price of $2,656.30 on September 25, 2024 [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve - Investors are focusing on new economic data for insights into the Federal Reserve's next policy moves, particularly the upcoming weekly initial jobless claims data and the August PCE index [2] - The expectation for initial jobless claims is an increase to 235,000 from 231,000, while analysts predict the monthly PCE will rise to 0.3% from 0.2% in July [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook for Gold - Gold is expected to strengthen in scenarios where interest rates decline or the economic outlook becomes uncertain [3] - Analysts are bullish on gold, with Goldman Sachs Research predicting a price of $3,700 per troy ounce by year-end 2025, representing a 40% increase from its January 2 opening price of $2,633 [12] - Rising demand from central banks and uncertainty related to U.S. tariff policy are key factors driving the increase in gold prices [12]

美联储决策基于经济数据，但缺乏对未来经济走势的准确预判，货币政策被人诟病。如表，美联储官员认为，今年美 国经济增长速度为1.6%，未来几年增速低于2%。令人不解的是，尽管就业市场走软，美联储依然坚持年末失业率为 4.5%，与6月份预测一样。此外，特朗普政府新关税政策暂缓执行期于8月7日结束，关税政策预计会对物价水平形成上 涨压力，而美联储6月和9月对PCE和核心PCE的预测值几乎没什么变化。他们内部形成了共识：关税政策影响是暂时 的。 与6月相比，美联储官员更倾向于年内还有至少两次降息，但从长远预测值看，明年至多有一次降息，2027年还有一 次，2028年不变。换言之，美联储的中性利率为3.1%左右，比通货膨胀目标值2.0%高出了110个基点。从19位经济学 家预测结果看，10位预测2025年末联邦基金利率为3.6%，有6位认为维持在4.10%。经济学家们对2026年的看法分歧很 大，只有6位认为利率维持在3.6%，有5位预测低于3%。 就业形势变了，通胀形势也变了，但这些变化并未影响美联储决策官员对经济走势的看法。在他们看来，这些变化只 是暂时的，不会改变长期趋势。7月30日会上，两名由特朗普任命的理事—— ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal conflict within the Republican Party, highlighting how President Trump, who initially pressured the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, faces unexpected opposition from his own party members who propose legislation that could restrict the Fed's ability to implement such policies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Trump's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" has led to significant economic consequences, including rising prices, soaring inflation, factory closures, and job losses [3]. - The Federal Reserve, under pressure from Trump, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with expectations of two more cuts by the end of the year [4]. Group 2: Legislative Developments - A new proposal titled the "Price Stability Act of 2025" has been introduced by Republican members of Congress, which aims to eliminate the Fed's dual mandate and focus solely on controlling inflation [5][6]. - If passed, this legislation would require the Fed to raise interest rates whenever the Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeds 3%, effectively limiting its ability to lower rates as Trump desires [5]. Group 3: Internal Party Dynamics - The article suggests that the internal conflict is not merely a policy disagreement but may reflect deeper issues within the Republican Party, including a faction of conservatives seeking to restrain Trump's influence over monetary policy [6][7]. - Allegations arise that Vice President Vance is secretly orchestrating efforts to undermine Trump, positioning himself for a potential presidential run should Trump falter [7][8].