Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 3.75%-4.00% as expected and ended the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, marking the end of the quantitative tightening phase. The policy has entered a new transition stage of "stop easing → observe and evaluate", with the future interest - rate path becoming more uncertain [2][3]. - After the resolution, the market re - priced interest rates, exchange rates, and risk assets due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts behind the end of balance - sheet reduction. If macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the market's trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious [4]. 3. Section Summaries FOMC Meeting Results - The FOMC meeting cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction plan in December, with internal differences on interest - rate decisions, indicating increased uncertainty about the future interest - rate path [2][3]. - Powell emphasized that whether to cut interest rates in December depends on data, and the policy orientation has shifted to stronger data dependence. There are upward short - term inflation disturbances from tariffs, but they are expected to be temporary [3]. - The Fed has not determined the details of the balance - sheet duration structure adjustment but will gradually tilt towards short - duration allocation [3]. Market Reaction - After the Fed's decision, the market initially had a mild reaction, but then quickly re - priced due to Powell's hawkish remarks. The 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose by over 7bp to 4.06%, the 2 - year yield rose by over 10bp, U.S. stocks fell, gold declined, emerging - market currencies were under pressure, and Bitcoin significantly corrected [4]. - The market focused on the uncertainty of future interest - rate cuts, and if macro data does not deteriorate significantly before December, the trading logic for interest - rate cuts will be more cautious, and interest - rate fluctuations and cross - asset misalignment will remain highly elastic [4]. Economic Data Forecast (SEP Outlook) - Forecasts for real GDP, unemployment rate, PCE, core PCE, and interest rates from 2025 - 2028 are provided, and compared with June's predictions, showing changes in economic data expectations [30].

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is titled "Fed Turns Hawkish, Adding Uncertainty - October FOMC Review" and is published by Huatai Research on October 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: FOMC Meeting Summary - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% at the October FOMC meeting and will stop quantitative tightening on December 1. Two members voted against the decision, showing internal disagreement [2] - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. Employment growth has slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has risen slightly but remains low as of August. Inflation is still relatively high [2] Group 3: Powell's Press Conference - Powell stated that a December rate cut is not a given. The committee has not decided on December's policy and will make a judgment based on data, economic outlook, and risk balance. There are significant differences among members due to inflation risks and employment risks [3] - The Fed decided to end QT on December 1 because the money market pressure has reached the target level, with rising repo rates and the federal funds rate [3] - AI investment is insensitive to interest rates and is based on long - term judgments. The Fed is monitoring the rise in sub - prime auto loan defaults but has not found it to be a widespread credit problem [4] - The K - shaped economy has been included in the economic assessment. There is a certain correlation between the stock market and consumption, but a stock market decline may not lead to an equal - dollar decline in consumption [4][5] Group 4: Market Performance - After the hawkish remarks, interest - sensitive assets generally adjusted. US Treasury yields rose significantly, and technology stocks and copper performed relatively strongly. The US dollar index rose, and non - US currencies mostly fell [6] - As of the close on the day, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 11 basis points to 3.60%, and the 10 - year yield rose 10 basis points to 4.08%. US stocks closed mixed, with the Nasdaq up 0.55%, the S&P 500 flat, and the Dow down 0.16%. The Russell 2000 index fell 0.87% [6] - As of October 30, the OIS market priced in a further 17.2bp rate cut this year, and the probability of a December rate cut dropped to 68.6% [6] Group 5: Future Policy Outlook - The Fed's rate - cut logic has shifted from risk management to data - driven. The threshold for a December rate cut has increased significantly, and a further weakening of the job market may be a necessary condition [7] - Stopping quantitative tightening is expected to ease short - term liquidity tensions. After the government shutdown ends, the TGA account funds may flow back to the market, injecting more liquidity [8] - The new Fed chair nominee may be announced this year. If Kevin Hassett is nominated, it may increase concerns about the Fed's independence and benefit gold. If Christopher Waller is nominated, it may trigger reverse trading [8] Group 6: Asset Allocation Outlook - For US Treasuries, short - term government shutdowns may cause fundamental pressure and increase yield volatility. The Fed's more cautious stance drives the yield curve to bear - flatten. In the long run, monetary policy may be "tight first and then loose" [9] - For US stocks, the Fed's hawkish turn has affected some interest - sensitive sectors, but AI remains the main line. In the medium term, the macro - environment is still favorable, but long - term risks such as central bank tightening and over - capacity need attention [10] - For other assets, before US employment data shows further weakness, most assets may face pressure on the denominator. The recent strength of the RMB exchange rate may limit the impact of rising US Treasury yields [10]

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4%, which aligns with market expectations [1] - Following the announcement, spot gold prices briefly fell below $3930 per ounce, despite reaching a high of $3965.84 per ounce earlier [1] - The Fed will end its quantitative tightening on December 1, but Chairman Powell expressed skepticism about further rate cuts in December, leading to reduced market expectations for additional monetary easing [1]

2. 美联储货币政策委员会大多数成员投票支持降息25个基点，仅2人反对：斯蒂芬·米兰投票降息50个基 点，杰弗里·施密德投票不降息。 3. 10月降息与9月降息具有相同的风险管理逻辑，不存在零风险的政策路径。 4. 美联储已经累计降息150个基点，利率现已处于许多中性利率估计的范围内；当前货币政策仍然适度 具有限制性，若排除关税影响，当前通胀水平实际上已与2%的目标相去不远，可能只高出0.5%到 0.6%。 5. 委员会内部分歧较大，12月进一步降息并非板上钉钉。美联储将继续根据最新数据、不断变化的经济 前景以及风险平衡来确定适当的货币政策立场。 6. 政府停摆可能会影响12月的议息会议，在缺乏数据的情况下，可能有必要更加谨慎，经济数据缺失可 能构成暂停利率调整的理由。 7. 美联储决定于12月1日结束量化紧缩，届时，抵押贷款支持证券的赎回本金将被再投资于短期国债。 钛媒体App 10月30日消息，当地时间29日，美联储宣布年内第二次降息25个基点，并决定从12月1日起 结束缩表。主席鲍威尔随后表态12月再次降息并非板上钉钉，给美联储后续的政策前景增添了巨大的不 确定性。受此影响，交易员下调了对美联储12月降 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% with a vote of 10-2, indicating significant internal disagreement among members [1][4] - Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the divisions within the committee regarding future rate cuts, stating that a December rate cut is not a certainty [1][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the recent government shutdown has reduced GDP by at least $7 billion, with potential for further economic losses if the shutdown continues [2] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - Powell indicated that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with layoffs and hiring activities remaining low, and a decline in perceptions of job opportunities among households [3][4] - Major companies like Amazon, Paramount, UPS, and Target have announced significant layoffs, indicating a trend of reduced hiring and increased job cuts [3][4] Group 4: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell noted that excluding tariff impacts, current inflation levels are close to the 2% target, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation potentially in the range of 2.3% to 2.4% [4] - The Fed's assessment suggests that tariff-induced inflation is present and may rise further, but it is expected to be a one-time increase [4] Group 5: Future Policy Outlook - Recent private sector surveys indicate that despite the government shutdown, economic growth in October has accelerated, with GDPNow forecasting near 4% growth for the quarter [7] - Businesses are cautious about future hiring and investment due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, with confidence in the economic outlook at a three-year low [7][8] - Market expectations for rate cuts have decreased following Powell's comments, with a shift from a 93% probability of a cut to around 70% [8]

转自：金十数据 LPL Financial首席经济学家杰弗里·罗奇（Jeffrey Roach）："就业市场内部的下行风险很可能将确保美 联储在12月及整个明年继续降息。" Carson集团首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克（Ryan Detrick）："美联储没有节外生枝，如普遍预期那样降 息25个基点，同时也为12月再次降息敞开了大门。鲍威尔主席承认了通胀方面存在的潜在问题，但劳动 力市场疲软压倒了这些担忧，从而促成了本次降息以及未来的可能行动。" Oxford Economics美国副首席经济学家迈克尔·皮尔斯（Michael Pearce）："10月份降息25个基点的决定 毫无悬念，但一位地区联储主席出人意料的鹰派异议凸显出，未来的行动正变得更具争议性。我们预计 美联储将从此放慢降息步伐。我们的观点基于劳动力市场状况将趋于稳定的判断，但在官方数据匮乏的 情况下，这很难断言。" 以下是华尔街对美联储主席最新言论的反应： Northlight Asset Management首席投资官克里斯·扎卡雷利（Chris Zaccarelli）："这是市场具有前瞻性的 一个绝佳例证。尽管即时消息——降息、结束量化紧缩（ ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve executed its second interest rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 3.75% and 4% [1] - The Fed's statement highlighted a slowdown in U.S. job growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, while inflation has risen since the beginning of the year and remains at a high level [1] - The Fed aims to achieve full employment and a 2% inflation target over the long term, but faces increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [1] - Fed Chairman Powell indicated that there are short-term inflationary pressures and downside risks to employment, with significant disagreement within the committee regarding a potential rate cut in December [1] - The Fed announced the cessation of quantitative tightening (QT) and will end its balance sheet reduction plan after three and a half years, marking a key shift towards monetary easing [1] Market Reaction - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. stock markets initially experienced a sharp decline but later stabilized [3] - By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 saw slight declines, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded a small gain and reached a new closing high [3] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed will stop reducing its $6.6 trillion balance sheet due to signs of tightening liquidity in the money market and declining bank reserves [2] - Starting December 1, the Fed will no longer allow up to $5 billion of U.S. Treasury securities to mature without reinvestment, opting instead to maintain government bond inventory stability through rollovers [2]

10月30日凌晨，美联储宣布降息0.25%，为年内连续第二次下调利率，联邦基金利率目标区间降至 3.75%至4%。安本投资多元资产客户专属方案全球副主管Ray Sharma-Ong称，鲍威尔的讲话表明，美联 储预计美国政府停摆可能会持续到今年12月。一旦美国政府停摆结束，宏观经济数据再次公布，预计这 将支持今年12月的降息。随着美联储会议结束，市场关注将转向企业盈利和即将在韩国举行的中美贸易 谈判。 他表示，美联储透过降息25个基点，强调其不受政治压力影响，显示其决策仍以经济状况而非政治因素 主导。同时，美联储承认，持续的政府停摆限制其获取经济数据。由于缺乏清晰的经济讯息，美联储未 有就今年12月会议上是否会再次减息作出明确的前瞻性指引。 他认为，美国政府停摆加上近期企业业绩发布，加剧了市场对裁员和招聘方面挑战的担忧。劳动市场似 乎处于波动状态，一旦经济数据报告再次发布，就业数据可能疲弱。同时，由于数据有限且美联储尚未 承诺今年12月降息，短期利率应维持在高位，从而支撑美元。这种环境对中小型股票公司不利，因为它 们往往持有较高比例的浮动利率债券。 他提到，美联储宣布量化紧缩将于2025年12月1日结束，抵押贷 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and announced to end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. The market had largely priced in these moves, and Fed Chair Powell's post - meeting remarks were hawkish, suggesting that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][2][7]. - Against the backdrop of the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, and increased global confrontation, central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings. However, due to the weakening of driving factors, precious metals have experienced continuous adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The domestic stock market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points. With the expected continuation of a loose domestic liquidity environment and the potential inflow of external funds, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. Inflation remains high, and the risk of employment decline has increased. Powell said a December rate cut is not certain [1][7]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [8]. - **Industry News**: The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold reserves in the first six months of the current fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has nearly doubled compared to four years ago [9]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - Different overseas market varieties showed various trends. For example, the S&P 500 was almost flat, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.68%, and London gold fell 0.56% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate cut and the expected loose domestic liquidity environment are conducive to the inflow of funds into the stock market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced. The stock index is expected to continue rising in the short term [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bond futures prices are supported by the central bank's monetary policy and the expected reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. However, the hawkish remarks on the December rate cut by Powell have led to a rise in US bond yields [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Although geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil prices, the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian oil transportation and unclear market trends [14]. - **Methanol**: The operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin and methanol plants has declined. Coastal methanol inventories have increased slightly, and the market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply pressure may increase as the rubber - tapping season progresses, but short - term trends are expected to be strong due to expected smooth progress in China - US trade negotiations and the Fed's rate cut [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures showed a rebound, but glass futures fell at night. The domestic market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals have been adjusting after the Fed's rate cut. Although the long - term narrative of gold as a safe - haven asset is strengthening, short - term driving factors have weakened, leading to price adjustments [2][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has rebounded, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. The domestic zinc price may be weaker than the overseas price [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level at night. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported. The market is expected to be strong in the short term [22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil futures showed a weak trend at night. The expected increase in palm oil inventory and supply - side pressure are suppressing the short - term market [25]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The domestic sugar price is affected by import profits but may be supported by the upcoming new - season crushing [26]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures continued to oscillate strongly. The new - cotton purchase is in full swing, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong [27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated strongly. Some shipping companies have adjusted their freight rates downward. The market is in the traditional peak - season price - holding period, and there may be room for price increases [28].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the federal funds rate by 25 basis points reveals internal divisions among decision-makers regarding the economic outlook and monetary policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, aligning with market expectations, but highlighted growing disagreements among its members [1]. - Board member Milan advocated for a more significant cut of 50 basis points to address potential economic downturns, while Kansas Fed President Schmidt preferred to maintain current rates [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Fed Chair Powell indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing uncertainty about future rate cuts despite the recent decision, with the September PCE inflation rate at 2.8%, above the Fed's long-term target [3][4]. - The labor market shows signs of slowing but remains resilient, with no large-scale weakness detected, leading the Fed to adopt a cautious approach to avoid premature policy easing that could raise inflation expectations [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations suggest that while the Fed has room for further monetary easing, the pace may slow significantly, potentially shifting from "action at every meeting" to "quarterly adjustments" [5]. - This change reflects the complexity of economic fundamentals and the Fed's intention to minimize excessive market volatility [5]. Group 4: Impact of Rate Cuts - The effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the economy may be limited, particularly in real estate and interest-sensitive consumer sectors, due to a weakened refinancing effect [7]. - Relying solely on interest rate tools may not achieve the desired economic boost, indicating that structural policy measures may become crucial in the future [7]. Group 5: Quantitative Tightening - The Fed plans to officially end its quantitative tightening (QT) policy on December 1, ceasing the monthly reduction of $50 billion in Treasury securities and continuing to reinvest in maturing MBS and short-term Treasury bills [8]. - This decision aims to alleviate market concerns about liquidity and marks a transition towards the normalization of monetary policy, providing more flexibility for future policy adjustments [8].