宏观动态报告 -- 6 月 FOMC 会议 2024 年 6 月 19 日 分析师 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 于金潼 网: yujintong_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524080003 经济预测进一步确立"滞胀"担忧,点阵图边际鹰流但无需过多解读,硬数据变动仍将主 ● 导美联储未来的态度,而关税和财政是影响硬数据的核心变量: 6 月将 2025 和 2026 年的 经济增长预期从 1.7%和 1.8%下调至 1.4%和 1.6%,低于经济潜在增速。2025-2027 年 的失业率被小幅全线上调,分别为 4.5%、4.5%和 4.4%,略高于自然失业率水平并支持 进一步的降息。PCE 通胀也被上调,2025年名义和核心通胀分别从 2.7%和 2.8%进一步 上调至 3.0%和 3.1%,而 2026 年均为 2.4%,即通胀抬升基本为一次性。最后,联邦基 金利率预测路径显示 2025 年美联储暂时维持降息 2 次，2026 年降息从 2 次下调 ...

有人可能不知道美联储是是个什么东西，这么说吧，它是全球一切资产价格波动的发动机。这台发动机有两个主要任务：保证美国物价稳定 （Price Stability），促进国内充分就业(Full Employment)。 美联储这个机构挺起来高大上，运作逻辑也很简单，一帮美国金融学院高材生大佬，没事了坐在一起喝喝咖啡，看看CPI、PCE这些通胀数据 距离2%的目标是不是偏差过大，评估一下国内汽油、楼市、用工成本，另外也会看下非农就业是饱和还是大量萎缩。另外，他们参考ISM、 GDP数据是否健康。 这帮人呢，有一个叫政策工具箱的东西，这玩意可以说是金融市场的"月光宝盒"，能让行情发生瞬移。他们最常见的是常规工具，比如利率 （加息、降息、维稳）、购债（OMO）、贴现窗口（向商业银行提供短期抵押贷款）、存款准备金率等。 如果经济出现红灯或者濒临ICU，美联储会动用一些非常规"核武器"，比如量化宽松（QE）、量化紧缩（QT）、前瞻性指引、紧急贷款工 具。 为什么要跟大家掰扯这些听起来很晦涩的东西?因为这是每次大行情的源头，你们了解一下，就算不参与，能看懂市场，也能获得成就感。接 下来我们重点说下这个利率工具。 最近，中东"千 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's inflation rate has exceeded 3%, surpassing the government's and Bank of Japan's target of 2%, leading to market speculation about the timing of interest rate hikes [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of Japan is committed to a monetary normalization path, gradually reducing its bond purchases starting from April 2026 while decreasing its holdings of Japanese government bonds [1][3]. - The current inflation rate in Japan is over 3%, prompting market attention on the timing of potential interest rate increases, with the Bank of Japan monitoring the impact of U.S. tariffs and domestic political developments [1][4]. Group 2: Government Bond Holdings - The Bank of Japan holds approximately 560 trillion yen in government bonds, with internal consensus indicating that this amount is considered "excessive" [3]. - The Bank of Japan plans to exclude government bond purchases from its monetary policy tools, actively pursuing a quantitative tightening route to reduce its bond holdings [3][4]. Group 3: Future Rate Hikes and Economic Indicators - The Bank of Japan's President, Ueda, indicated that the timing for future interest rate hikes will be based on a comprehensive assessment of various data and information, without providing a clear stance [4][5]. - Market expectations for interest rate hikes are increasing, with probabilities of 9% for July, 20% for September, and 24% for October [4]. Group 4: Political and Economic Context - The upcoming Japanese Senate elections in late July and geopolitical developments may influence the Bank of Japan's decisions regarding interest rate hikes [5].

日本央行于6月17日结束为期两天的政策会议，预计在北京时间10:30至12:00公布最新决定。市场普遍 预测，短期利率将维持在0.5%的水平不变，显示出央行在当前复杂经济环境下的谨慎态度。此次会议 的核心议题之一是对现行购债缩减计划的检讨。消息人士透露，日本央行政策委员会倾向于保持本财年 （截至2026年3月）的购债缩减计划不变，但已开始为2026财年的政策调整铺路，计划从下一财年起放 缓量化紧缩的步伐。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 纸黄金今日需密切关注的关键阻力位区间为805-810，同时要留意的重要支撑位区间为750-755。 今日周二（6月17日）亚市盘中，纸黄金延续前一交易日下跌走势，截止发稿报782.97元/克，跌幅 0.32%，今日开盘报785.50元/克，最高触及785.67元/克，最低触及780.71元/克。 【要闻速递】 在全球经济不确定性不断加剧的背景下，日本央行正站在货币政策的十字路口。周二（6月17日），日 本央行结束为期两天的政策会议，备受市场瞩目的量化紧缩（QT）计划细节即将揭晓。据悉，日本央 行预计不会大幅调整今年的购债缩减计划，但从2026财年起或将放缓缩减购债的步伐，以避免市场剧 ...

金十数据6月17日讯，法兴银行预计日本央行6月可能会保持利率不变，且在近期超长期日本国债遭遇抛 售之际，日本央行将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩的步伐。日本的核心CPl可能在非新鲜食品和服务价格 上涨的推动下加速增长。 法兴银行：日本央行将按兵不动 并将从明年4月开始放慢量化紧缩步伐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is considering a slower pace of bond purchase reduction while maintaining the policy interest rate at 0.5%, which will be closely monitored by the bond market [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Meeting Insights - The BOJ's two-day monetary policy meeting is expected to conclude with the interest rate remaining unchanged, with a focus on the updated government bond purchase reduction plan [1]. - Approximately two-thirds of analysts anticipate that the bond purchase reduction starting in April next year will be less aggressive than the current pace [1][4]. - The BOJ has been reducing bond purchases since last summer, with a record reduction of 6.2 trillion yen in the first quarter due to slowed purchases and maturing debt [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - The decision to extend the quantitative tightening (QT) plan into the next fiscal year is expected to impact global bond markets, especially after recent yield fluctuations [4]. - Analysts predict that the BOJ may reduce bond purchases by 2 trillion yen per quarter starting next spring, down from the current 4 trillion yen [7][8]. - The current yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds reached a historical high of 3.185%, indicating market instability [11]. Group 3: Economic Context and External Factors - Japan's Prime Minister is expected to discuss trade agreements with the U.S. President to mitigate economic uncertainties ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [12]. - The U.S. Treasury has urged the BOJ to tighten its policies to address yen weakness and balance bilateral trade [12]. - The BOJ's cautious stance on interest rate hikes reflects the high uncertainty in global trade negotiations and their economic implications [11].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering slowing down the pace of bond purchase reductions while keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged, which is causing significant tension in the global bond market [1] - All 53 analysts surveyed expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the interest rate at 0.5%, with a focus on the updated government bond purchase plan, where about two-thirds predict a smaller reduction starting in April [1] - The Bank of Japan's first extension of its quantitative tightening plan into the new fiscal year is aimed at addressing recent yield fluctuations, especially after the long-term Japanese government bond yield reached a historic high last month [1] Group 2 - Analysts predict that the new reduction pace may be set at 200 billion yen per quarter, with 40% of analysts expecting this figure, while 25% forecast a reduction of 300 billion yen, and 20% believe it will remain at 400 billion yen [2] - The Bank of Japan's Governor has indicated that the threshold for intervening in the bond market is high, as the central bank is working to restore market functionality damaged by past quantitative easing and yield curve control policies [2] - Following the policy statement from the Bank of Japan, market attention will shift to the Governor's press conference, where investors will look for hints regarding the timing of the next interest rate hike [2] Group 3 - In response to potential Senate elections next month, the Japanese Prime Minister is attempting to gain public support by addressing rising living costs, as consumer inflation in Japan remains the highest among G7 countries [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department has notably mentioned the Bank of Japan's policies in its semiannual currency report, urging the central bank to tighten policies to correct yen weakness and balance bilateral trade [3] - A former Bank of Japan official emphasized the need for the central bank to maintain a stance against rising core inflation, which is crucial for alleviating public dissatisfaction with living costs and serves as a key bargaining chip in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations [3]

智通财经APP获悉，曾经在日本央行负责货币政策执行与操作的执行委员表示，日本央行很可能将在即 将召开的央行货币政策委员会会议上宣布，于下一个财年显著放缓其政府债券购买缩减(taper，即缩债) 的执行速度。 统计数据显示，自去年夏天以来，日本央行每个季度将月度债券购买规模削减高达4000亿日元(约合28 亿美元)。然而，随着日本通胀自今年以来持续上行且显著高于2%这一央行目标值，日本国债持续陷入 抛售浪潮。少了日本央行这一日本债市的最强大购买力，市场对于日本长期限国债的收益率要求不断扩 张，日本国债收益率，尤其是10年及以上的长期限国债收益率持续激增，并且近期持续对全球金融市场 造成负面冲击波。 因此，在计划于6月17日结束的两日货币政策会议上，市场最为关注的焦点问题在于：日本央行是否会 在2026财年(于2026年4月开启)继续保持这一债券购买缩减(taper)节奏。 前田预计，一旦月度购债规模在2027年初降至约2万亿日元，日本央行将暂时停止进一步调整购债，以 向市场传达"没有更多缩减规模"的信号。 市场普遍预计，日本央行下周将基准利率维持在0.5%不变。前田表示，日本央行下一次加息时点将取 决于美国总统 ...

| 197 DE | ত্ৰি বিশ্ববিদ্যালয়ৰ প্ৰথম বিশ্ববিদ্যালয় সম্পাদক সংগ্ৰহ বিশ্ববিদ্যালয় সম্পাদক সংযোগ | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1m | 5m | 15m | 30m | 1H | 4H 1D | 1W | 1M | | | | N | | 144.20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 144.10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 144.00 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 143.90 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 143.80 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 43.70 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 143.60:00 | | | 11:25 | 12:50 | | 14:15 | | 15:40 | 17:05 | 18: ...

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the US growth expectation slashed from 2.8% to 1.6% [1] - The economic outlook is pessimistic due to rising trade barriers and a decline in consumer spending in the US, impacting global growth [1] - Major economies like China, Europe, and Japan are also experiencing varying degrees of economic slowdown this year [1] Group 2: US Economic Policy Changes - The US government is shifting its focus away from non-US countries, canceling preferential tariffs and imposing new tariffs to boost domestic revenue [2] - This shift aims to stimulate domestic economic activity and enhance internal circulation capabilities [2] Group 3: Shenzhen AI Terminal Funding - Shenzhen's government has launched a funding program for the smart terminal industry, with a maximum grant of 20 million yuan available for various AI-related projects [3] - The funding focuses on the development and promotion of innovative consumer electronics, including smartphones and AI devices [3][4] Group 4: Japanese Demographic Trends - Japan's birth rate is projected to fall below 700,000 in 2024, marking a 5.7% decrease from the previous year, with a total fertility rate dropping to a historic low of 1.15 [9] - Despite increased marriage rates, the overall trend of declining birth rates continues, exacerbated by high living costs and a demanding work culture [9] Group 5: US Treasury Bond Buyback - The US Treasury conducted a record $10 billion buyback of government bonds, the largest single operation in history [7] - This move aims to stabilize the bond market and restore confidence amid rising concerns over the US deficit [8] Group 6: Honey Snow Group Stock Performance - Honey Snow Group's stock has reached new highs due to expected benefits from delivery platform subsidies, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts by Goldman Sachs [11] - The competitive landscape in the instant tea beverage market is intensifying, with potential for further price wars driven by delivery subsidies [12] Group 7: Accounting Firms and Regulatory Changes - Three accounting firms have voluntarily ceased their securities service operations, reflecting stricter regulatory requirements and past penalties for misconduct [13][14] - The new regulations aim to enhance transparency and accountability within the accounting industry, particularly regarding the auditing of public companies [15] Group 8: Market Trends - The stock market showed signs of recovery with significant trading volume, particularly in consumer sectors, indicating a potential shift towards domestic consumption [16] - The market is at a critical juncture, with the Shanghai Composite Index struggling to break through the 3400-point psychological barrier [17]