Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a decline due to eased concerns over Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, with light crude oil futures falling by $0.11 to $68.04 per barrel, a decrease of 0.16%, and Brent crude oil futures dropping by $0.41 to $69.36 per barrel, a decrease of 0.59% [1] - The U.S. and Iran are scheduled to hold high-level talks in Oman on June 15 regarding potential agreements related to Iran's nuclear activities, while Israel is reportedly considering military action against Iran without U.S. support [1] - The U.S. State Department has ordered the evacuation of non-essential personnel and their families from the U.S. embassy in Iraq, and is preparing to do the same for embassies in Bahrain and Kuwait [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks are rising, and seasonal gasoline demand is increasing, leading to a sustained rise in the risk premium in the oil market, which has reignited concerns over supply disruptions [2] - The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global oil transport, accounting for nearly 20% of oil shipments, and any supply disruption could have significant impacts [2] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz due to an Israeli attack, oil prices could potentially surge to $120 per barrel, although the likelihood of such an event is considered low based on historical precedents [2] - Analysts suggest that if Brent crude futures break the $68 per barrel level, it could establish a new support platform, indicating that the recent price drop may be a short-term profit-taking move, with a long-term upward trend expected [2]

Group 1 - The European Central Bank's report indicates that by 2024, gold's share in global central bank reserves will rise to 20%, surpassing the euro's 16%, making it the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] - Central banks' demand for gold is projected to account for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, significantly higher than the 10% average from 2010 to 2020 [1] - The net purchases of gold by central banks are expected to exceed 1000 tons for the third consecutive year in 2024, setting a historical record [1] Group 2 - Jewelry and investment in gold continue to dominate global gold demand, accounting for approximately 70%, remaining stable over the past three years [1] - A survey by the World Gold Council reveals that central banks primarily hold gold for diversification and as a hedge against economic risks such as inflation, cyclical downturns, and debt defaults [1] - Geopolitical factors have increasingly influenced central bank investments in gold, with one-quarter of emerging market central banks citing these factors as a primary driver for their gold holdings [1] Group 3 - Gold prices are expected to surge by approximately 30% in 2024, with the inflation-adjusted price exceeding the peak during the 1979 oil crisis [1] - Traditionally, gold is viewed as a hedge against fluctuations in real interest rates; however, since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the correlation between gold prices and real interest rates has been disrupted, with geopolitical risks becoming a significant factor affecting gold prices [1] Group 4 - Changes in gold supply are identified as a crucial variable for future gold price trends, with historical data suggesting that gold supply has previously responded elastically to rising demand [2] - An increase in official sector demand for gold reserves may lead to a further rise in global gold supply [2]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results on June 12, with SC crude oil leading gains, rising over 3% [1] - Other commodities such as fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and soybean meal also saw increases of over 1% [1] - Conversely, coking coal and soda ash fell over 2%, while rubber, 20 rubber, pulp, coke, and several others dropped more than 1.5% [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences on Oil Prices - Increased geopolitical risks in the Middle East and positive outcomes from US-China trade talks contributed to a significant rise in international oil prices [2] - SC crude oil futures rose by 3.01%, supported by cost factors, with high and low sulfur fuel oils and asphalt also experiencing notable increases [2] - The US announced the withdrawal of non-essential personnel from the Middle East due to security risks, further heightening market concerns [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Gold Market - US May CPI was below market expectations, leading to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which caused the dollar index to decline [3] - International gold prices saw a short-term increase, with Shanghai gold futures rising over 1%, although spot gold began to retreat later in the day [3] - Long-term trends indicate that central bank gold purchases and global monetary expansion will continue to support gold prices [3] Group 4: Coking Coal and Soda Ash Market Trends - Coking coal prices fell nearly 3%, continuing a downward trend, while coke prices also decreased by 1.77% [4] - The supply-demand balance remains loose, with insufficient reductions in supply and weakening demand [4] - Soda ash futures hit a new low, down 2.33%, due to increased supply pressures and lack of strong demand support [6]

Group 1 - The global official reserve status of gold is increasing, with its share in central bank reserves projected to exceed 20% in 2024, surpassing the euro's 16% share, making gold the second-largest reserve asset after the US dollar [1] - Central banks are expected to account for over 20% of global gold demand in 2024, a significant increase from 10% in the 2010s, with net purchases surpassing 1,000 tons for the third consecutive year, setting a historical record [1] - Jewelry and investment consumption still dominate global gold demand, accounting for approximately 70%, remaining stable over the past three years [1] Group 2 - Central banks primarily hold gold for diversification and as a hedge against economic risks such as inflation, cyclical downturns, and defaults, with geopolitical factors also playing a significant role in driving central bank investments in gold [1] - The nominal price of gold is projected to rise by about 30% in 2024, exceeding historical highs seen during the 1979 oil crisis, with geopolitical risks becoming a crucial factor influencing gold prices [1] - Future changes in gold supply will be an important variable for price trends, with central bank demand's impact on prices depending on the "stickiness" of gold supply, which has historically responded elastically to rising demand [2]

周二，金融市场情绪分化，美国通胀数据略低于预期之际，中东地区地缘政治风险升温，令投资者信心 受挫。 通胀回落与美伊紧张局势升级的交织，导致避险资金流、能源市场与债券收益率等多资产类别出现"拉 锯战"。 美国5月CPI略显温和 美国5月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，略高于4月的2.3%，符合市场预期。核心CPI同比维持 在2.8%，月率增长仅为0.1%，均低于市场预期。 尽管通胀仍处于相对高位，但持续的通缩趋势被市场解读为积极信号——尤其是此前担忧关税冲击的影 响并未如预期严重显现。 "当前整体和核心通胀维持稳定，即便在关税背景下，也为美联储提供了更多操作空间，并可能为年内 降息打开大门。"——Ultima Markets 高级分析师 Shawn 表示。 CME FedWatch显示9月FOMC会议降息概率达到61.6%，较一个月前的41%大幅上升。 美伊紧张局势再起 另一方面，美国与伊朗的紧张关系于周三加剧。美国已下令部分撤离驻伊拉克、巴林和科威特大使馆人 员，理由是来自伊朗支持势力的安全威胁上升。 技术面分析：布伦特原油（UKOUSD） 布伦特原油强势突破两个月高点，重返69美元上方，逼近70美 ...

服务业与关税影响的博弈 尽管通胀数据温和，但分析人士警告，特朗普政府近期推行的关税政策可能在未来推高通胀。5月CPI上涨的主要驱动力来自住房成本（租金上涨0.3%）和 食品价格反弹（0.3%），而服务价格涨势放缓暂时抑制了通胀上行压力。荷兰国际集团首席国际经济学家James Knightley表示，美国经济以服务业为主，劳 动力成本放缓有助于缓解关税带来的通胀影响。然而，大型家电价格上涨4.3%、玩具价格上涨1.3%，已显现关税对部分商品价格的推升作用。周四即将公 布的生产者物价指数（PPI）数据，将为通胀趋势提供进一步线索。 周四（6月12日）亚洲早盘，现货黄金延续强势表现，截至07:30，最高触及3373.25美元/盎司，刷新本周高位。此轮上涨主要受两大因素推动：一是美国最 新通胀数据低于预期，强化了市场对美联储降息的预期；二是中东地缘政治紧张局势急剧升温，避险需求激增。ETO Markets 分析指出，黄金作为传统避险 资产，短期内或继续受多空因素交织影响，投资者需密切关注政策信号与地缘动态。 通胀数据低于预期：美联储降息预期升温 美国CPI温和，降息概率攀升 美国劳工部最新数据显示，5月消费者物价指数 ...

Group 1 - European stock index futures fell by 0.7%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.4%, reaching its lowest level since July 2023 [1][5] - Brent crude oil futures surged by 5% to $70 per barrel due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, although they later declined by approximately 1% [1][2] - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran and US military bases in Iraq, are driving oil market volatility [2][5] Group 2 - Brent crude oil has dropped about 7% this year, influenced by US tariff policies and OPEC+ decisions to restart idle production capacity [5] - The European Stoxx 50 index futures and Japan's Nikkei 225 index both experienced declines, with the latter closing down 0.6% [5] - Gold prices increased by 0.6% to $3,374.54 per ounce, benefiting from safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in gold prices is driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty in global trade, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 12, gold prices reached $3,375.50 per ounce, marking a 0.61% increase from the previous day [4]. - The gold price opened at $3,356.79 per ounce, with a daily high of $3,377.50 and a low of $3,351.38 [4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly warnings from Iran regarding potential retaliation against U.S. military assets if negotiations fail [3]. - The U.S. is evacuating non-essential personnel from its embassy in Baghdad and military families from several bases in the Gulf due to security concerns, further stimulating safe-haven buying of gold [3]. Group 3: Year-to-Date Trends - Gold prices have increased by 28% year-to-date, supported by rising geopolitical risks and increased central bank purchases [3].

6月12日亚盘早市，现货黄金延续强势，开盘即跳涨至3364.1美元/盎司，随后快速冲高至3377.74美元/盎司的本周新高， 较前一交易日收盘价上涨0.63%，日内最低触及3356美元，当前交投于3375美元附近。伦敦银现同步走强，最高触及 36.371美元/盎司，现报36.35美元，维持在36美元关键支撑上方。 | 昨收 | 3355.34 最高 | | 3377.74 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3357.29 最低 | | 3356.04 | | 买入 | 3375.53 | 卖出 | 3375.73 | 一、基本面驱动：地缘风险与政策预期双重引擎 地缘政治风险白热化 俄乌冲突持续升级，俄罗斯对乌克兰国防工业发动集群打击，乌克兰多地基础设施严重受损，波兰紧急部署战机应对边 境威胁。与此同时，中东局势因沙特推动巴勒斯坦建国会议复杂化，以色列与伊朗的核威慑对峙加剧，地区安全不确定 性直接推升避险买需。世界银行最新报告将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.3%，并警告贸易壁垒和关税上调可能导致 全球贸易停滞，进一步强化黄金的避险属性。 美联储降息预期升温 美国5月CP ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 12 日 对二甲苯：油价大幅上涨，估值重塑 PTA：成本推升，反套离场 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-10 | 6502 | 4612 | 4269 | 6358 | 3559 | | 2025-06-09 | 6494 | 4602 | 4256 | 6388 | 3514 | | 2025-06-06 | 6556 | 4652 | 4261 | 6394 | 3525 | | 2025-06-05 | 6540 | 4644 | 4283 | 6352 | 3489 | | 2025-06-04 | 6578 | 4670 | 4292 | 6408 | 3511 | | 日度变化 | 0.1% | ...