Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking historical records and reaching $4568.66 per ounce, reflecting strong demand driven by geopolitical risks and investment trends [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices have consistently increased, surpassing key thresholds of $4400, $4500, and $4550, with a recent peak at $4600 per ounce [3]. - The World Gold Council reports that gold has performed exceptionally well in 2025, with expectations of a further increase of 15% to 30% in 2026 [8]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Venezuela, which have rekindled market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver has also seen significant gains, with prices approaching $84 per ounce and a reported increase of 4.28% to $83.33 per ounce [4]. Group 3: Domestic Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry brands have raised their prices in response to the rising gold prices, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang increasing their gold prices to 1426 RMB and 1428 RMB per gram, respectively [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from Saxo Bank suggest that the strong performance of gold, silver, and platinum reflects a combination of geopolitical hedging, financial flows, and structural investment themes [6]. - Citic Securities predicts a high certainty of gold price increases, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures [9]. - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic, with projections indicating that international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 under neutral assumptions [9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have short - term impacts on oil prices, but supply surplus restricts upward space [2] - In the precious metals market, due to employment data and geopolitical chaos, there are opportunities for breakthrough and re - entry [3] - Different metals and commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly [4][5][6] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers drive short - term price recovery, but supply surplus in Q1 2026 limits upward space [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is directly affected by geopolitical risks, with potential demand increase; low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply increase pressure [22] - **Asphalt**: Oil price rebound, but asphalt lags behind. Venezuelan oil supply may impact domestic asphalt in February [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US employment data and geopolitical chaos lead to precious metals challenging previous highs, with investment opportunities [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Price oscillates, affected by US employment and geopolitical situation, with a previous option strategy [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term funds drive price up, approaching historical high, with high profit for aluminum plants [5] - **Zinc**: Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, with cost support, and price oscillates in a range [8] - **Lead**: Price oscillates in a low - level range, affected by inventory and cost [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Market oscillates, with changes in inventory and price influenced by policies [10] - **Tin**: Price has support, with attention on inventory changes and high option volatility [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Price oscillates at a high level, with active trading and strong support from the ore end [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: Price oscillates weakly due to supply - demand imbalance [13] - **Polysilicon**: Policy affects demand, with supply surplus and price seeking cost support [14] - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil**: Price oscillates, with changes in demand, output, and inventory, and profit margin repair for steel mills [15] - **Iron Ore**: Price rebounds, with changes in supply and demand, and inventory increase [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Price oscillates strongly, affected by supply - demand and policies [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Ferrosilicon**: Price drops, with different supply - demand situations, and callback buying is recommended [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: Price oscillates strongly in a range, with expected increase in daily output and approaching spring agricultural demand [24] - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease, but high inventory and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Price oscillates, with expected reduction in far - month production and consideration of positive spread arbitrage [26] - **Styrene**: Price consolidates, affected by raw material inventory [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Market sentiment is different, with changes in supply, demand, and price [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC price drops, with potential for long - term capacity reduction and cost support; caustic soda oscillates with supply - demand pressure [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, with cost support from oil price, and different expectations for PX and PTA [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply changes, with pressure in the short - term and potential improvement in Q2 [31] - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chip**: Demand weakens, with price following raw materials and different supply - demand situations [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: US and South American soybean production data are expected, with South American weather and US exports to be concerned, and price oscillating weakly [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Market oscillates, affected by Indonesian policy and Malaysian inventory [37] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: Market oscillates weakly, affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister [38] - **Soybean No.1**: Price shows different trends, with attention on policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: Price oscillates widely, with low inventory and high auction performance [40] - **Pig**: Price is strong in the short - term, but supply pressure is high before the Spring Festival, and there may be a secondary bottom in the medium - long term [41] - **Egg**: Price is strong, with存栏 decline and bullish expectations for H1 2026 contracts [42] - **Cotton**: Price adjusts, with changes in inventory and demand, and attention on policy implementation [43] - **Sugar**: Price oscillates, with different production situations in India and Thailand, and expected increase in Guangxi [44] - **Apple**: Price rebounds, with increased demand for Spring Festival stocking and concerns about inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: Price is low, with low inventory providing support [46] - **Pulp**: Price oscillates, with limited upward space due to weak demand [47] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] - **Stock Index**: A - shares are likely to continue to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles dominant [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Price drops slightly, with focus on the flattening of the yield curve [49]

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices surged to a new historical high of $4612 per ounce, marking a significant increase driven by rising geopolitical tensions and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - COMEX silver prices also rose, reaching $83.9 per ounce, with a daily increase of 5.7%, while domestic gold and silver futures in China saw increases of approximately 3% and 12%, respectively [1] - Central bank data indicates that China's gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons) by the end of December 2025, marking the 14th consecutive month of gold accumulation [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4900 per ounce by December 2026, supported by the Chinese central bank's purchasing behavior [2] - JPMorgan has raised its gold price outlook, forecasting it will reach $5000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a long-term target of $6000 per ounce [2] - UBS has adjusted its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $4500 to $5000 per ounce, attributing the recent price surge to a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical tensions [2] Group 3 - JPMorgan maintains its average silver price forecast at $40.1 per ounce for 2026, while Bank of America has a more optimistic outlook, suggesting silver prices could peak between $135 and $309 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold futures reached a historic high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven [1]. Group 1: Precious Metals Price Movements - In the first complete trading week of 2026, both gold and silver futures prices continued their bullish trend, with gold and silver prices increasing by 3.96% and 11.72% respectively [1]. - Silver futures exhibited significant volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8%, a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, and a subsequent two-day drop of over 7% [3]. - Goldman Sachs indicated that silver prices are expected to continue rising, but with higher volatility and uncertainty compared to gold [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Two main factors have intensified downward pressure on precious metal prices: the annual rebalancing adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which significantly reduced the weight of precious metals, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's increase in margin requirements for precious metal futures [10]. - The increase in margin requirements, particularly a 28.6% rise for silver, is expected to curb high-leverage and speculative trading [10]. - Despite facing short-term downward pressure, multiple institutions anticipate that both precious and industrial metal prices will have room for growth this year [9]. Group 3: Broader Market Context - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, aimed at normalizing monetary policy rather than stimulating economic activity, are likely to support metal prices, especially for precious metals and copper [12]. - Additionally, international oil prices have risen due to heightened geopolitical risks and unexpected decreases in U.S. crude oil inventories, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices increasing by 3.14% and 4.26% respectively [12].

2026.01. 12 本文字数：1127，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 1月12日亚洲早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格直线拉升，站上每盎司4600美元，时隔两周再度刷新历史 新高。 截至发稿，最高触及4612美元/盎司。 COMEX白银价格跟涨，截至发稿报83.9美元/盎司，日内大涨5.7%。 贺利氏金属（Heraeus Metals）贵金属交易员亚历山大·楚姆夫（Alexander Zumpfe）表示，如果地 缘政治紧张局势进一步扩大，或者美国数据强化了美联储将采取比目前预期更宽松政策的预期，那么 黄金很可能将持续刷新纪录。 市场分析人士指出，金银价格持续高位运行既得益于地缘风险的不确定性的刺激，也来自需求端长期 高增长。 央行最新数据显示，截至2025年12月末，国内黄金储备报7415万盎司（约2306.323吨），为连续第 14个月增持黄金。 "考虑到中国央行黄金储备相对于其他主要经济体的水平，中国央行的购金行为将持续为金价提供支 撑。"高盛全球团队预测，截至 2026年12月，金价将达到4900美元/盎司。 国内贵金属期货继续走高，沪金期货主力连续合约涨约3%，报1031元/克；沪银期货 ...

| COMEX黄金 GC00Y (2026-01-12 10:57:03) 交易所: CME全属期货 | | | | | 期货行情 外汇行情 货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4587.91 | 成交量: 6.122万 | 今开:4529.1 | 量高: 4612.7 | 滋肤幅: 1.93% | 外盘: 2.995万 | | 87.0 1.93% | 持仓量: 29.58万 | 昨德:4500.9 | 最低: 4520.8 | 涨跌额: 87.0 | 内盘: 3.127万 | 美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格东方财富网 另据央视新闻报道，2026年第一个完整交易周，在2025年表现强势的贵金属，继续牛市行情，黄金和白 银期货价格均累计上涨，但波动性明显加剧。 当地时间1月11日，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格创历史新高，一度突破每盎司4612.7美元。截至 北京时间12日10时57分，报4587.9美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.93%。 综合多家金融机构的分析来看，本周有两个因素加剧了贵金属价格的下行压力： 一是彭博大宗商品指数本周启动年度再平衡调整，贵金属权 ...

周一，金价涨至每盎司将近4600美元，白银价格也逼近历史高位。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔发表声明 称，潜在诉讼"应该放在政府的威胁和持续施压的更广泛背景下看待"。去年， 特朗普政府对美联储反 复攻击，是削弱市场对美元信心的主要因素。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国正在密切关注伊朗的抗议活动，并正在考虑可能的应对方案，并称 美国无论如论都将拥有格陵兰岛，还质疑北约的价值。 "这提醒我们，市场正在应对诸多不确定因素——地缘政治、增长/利率争议，以及如今又一个由消息面 引发的关于机构风险溢价的提醒，"新加坡Saxo Markets首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示。 黄金价格飙升创下历史新高。美国司法部威胁要对美联储提起刑事诉讼，再度引发市场对美联储独立性 的担忧，与此同时，伊朗国内政治动荡加剧了地缘政治紧张局势。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国正在密切关注伊朗的抗议活动，并正在考虑可能的应对方案，并称 美国无论如论都将拥有格陵兰岛，还质疑北约的价值。 "这提醒我们，市场正在应对诸多不确定因素——地缘政治、增长/利率争议，以及如今又一个由消息面 引发的关于机构风险溢价的提醒，"新加坡Saxo Marke ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data presents a mixed picture, with a decline in unemployment and an increase in average hourly wages, but disappointing job growth, leading to a complex market reaction regarding interest rate expectations and supporting gold and silver prices amid geopolitical tensions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December showed an increase of only 50,000 jobs, below the expected 60,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, lower than the anticipated 4.5% [3]. - The total job growth for 2025 was only 584,000, marking the weakest annual growth since 2020, indicating a persistent weakness in the labor market [2][3]. - The downward revision of job data for October and November by a total of 76,000 further exacerbates concerns about the labor market's structural weaknesses [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Gold and silver prices have been rising due to the mixed non-farm data and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which has heightened market risk aversion [1][2]. - Central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with a reported increase of 0.93 tons in December, indicating strong demand for precious metals [2]. - The upcoming release of the December CPI data is crucial, as a lower-than-expected core CPI could further support precious metal prices by reinforcing expectations of continued monetary easing [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran and the broader Middle East, are driving market sentiment and influencing the strong performance of precious metals [1][3]. - The expectation that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten monetary policy further due to weak job growth and a declining unemployment rate is providing additional support for gold [4]. - The potential impact of the Supreme Court's decision regarding tariffs on precious metals could introduce short-term volatility, necessitating caution among investors [2].

本周一早间，贵金属价格开盘便直线飙升：现货黄金价格上涨逾2%，首次站上4600美元大关，新年首月已累涨280美元；现货白银价格飙 升超5%，向上逼近84美元，创下历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金略有回落，徘徊于4570美元上方；现货白银于83美元附近波动。 此前，美国在对委内瑞拉的行动中抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，并将他们带离委内瑞拉。 在全球范围内的重重不确定性和地缘政治风险，推高了黄金等传统避险资产的价格。 非农数据疲弱令降息概率提升？ 与此同时，上周五晚间公布的美国非农就业报告喜忧参半，加剧了市场对美联储降息的预期，这对黄金价格构成一定支撑。因为随着美联储 利率降低，可能会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而支撑黄金价格。 美国劳工统计局上周五公布的数据显示，12月非农就业人数增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率4.4%，预期4.5%。 这一涨势得益于地缘政治风险上升导致避险需求增加，同时，上周五糟糕的非农就业数据也增强了市场对美联储降息的预期。 地缘政治风险上升 据央视新闻， 美国官员称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案。 包括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。 据悉，近期美国政府内部已召开初步会 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices surged, reaching a high of $4612 per ounce, marking a new historical peak after two weeks [1][2] - COMEX silver prices also increased, reported at $83.9 per ounce, with a daily rise of 5.7% [3] - Domestic precious metal futures continued to rise, with Shanghai gold futures up approximately 3% at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures up 12% at 20614 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals, while expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also increased following U.S. employment data [3] - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, currently holding 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), which is expected to support gold prices [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan has raised its forecast to $5000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a long-term outlook of $6000 per ounce [4] Group 3 - The global central banks are adjusting their reserve structures, reducing reliance on U.S. dollar assets and viewing gold as a core tool to hedge against sovereign currency credit risks [4] - The World Gold Council reports that gold is expected to perform well in 2025, with potential price increases of 15% to 30% in 2026 based on current levels [4] - Morgan Stanley maintains its average silver price forecast at $40.1 per ounce for 2026, while Bank of America has a more optimistic outlook, predicting silver prices could peak between $135 and $309 per ounce [5]