Group 1: Trade Negotiations and Tariffs - The threat of additional tariffs by Trump has led to increased caution among key U.S. trading partners regarding new trade agreements, creating a stalemate that could negatively impact global stock markets, particularly tech giants [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce is expected to release final investigation results on tariffs related to national security sectors, including chips, pharmaceuticals, and industrial metals, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act [2] - Countries like India are taking a hard stance, unwilling to sign agreements that do not resolve their concerns regarding export tariffs and reciprocal tariffs [6][8] Group 2: Impact on Global Markets - The MSCI global index reached a historical high due to easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, but uncertainty surrounding trade agreements poses a risk to market sentiment [1] - The ongoing trade negotiations, particularly regarding the automotive sector, are critical as they represent a significant portion of trade deficits and economic stability for countries like Japan [5] Group 3: Specific Tariff Details - A list of tariffs under investigation includes automobiles (25%), steel and aluminum (50%), and various other sectors such as pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, with investigations initiated on specific dates [2] - The potential for new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductor imports is particularly concerning for India, as these sectors are vital to its economy and export capabilities [8]

Trade Situation - The US has initiated a full-fledged trade war, imposing a 130% tariff on Chinese imports, raising the global import tariff rate to 25.5%, the highest since the 1890s [1][10][13] - Global export losses due to the trade war are projected to reach $480 billion by 2025, significantly impacting major economies like China and the EU [1][14][16] Global Economic Outlook - Global GDP growth is expected to decline to 2.3% in 2025, the lowest since the pandemic, with the US and Eurozone both forecasted to grow at 0.8% [2][17][32] - Emerging markets, excluding China, are projected to grow at 3.5%, with some countries benefiting from trade agreements and import diversification [2][4] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the US is anticipated to peak at 4.3% in 2025, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates until October before cutting them to 4% by year-end [3][41][50] - The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates to 1.5% as inflation pressures ease, contrasting with the US's inflationary challenges [3][51] Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting short-term strategies such as frontloading imports and diversifying supply chains to mitigate tariff impacts, with about two-thirds of US firms likely to pass tariff costs onto consumers [4][11][24] - Global corporate bankruptcies are projected to rise by 7% in 2025, with significant increases in the US and Western Europe [4][11] Capital Markets - Capital markets have reacted negatively to the trade war, with expectations of further declines in bond yields and volatility in equity markets [5][11][12] - The mispricing of Trump's second term policies has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, although a recovery is anticipated by year-end [5][11][12] Regional Economic Projections - The US is expected to experience a mild recession in 2025, with GDP growth rebounding to 2.2% in 2026 due to policy support [6][28] - The Eurozone's growth is projected at 0.8% in 2025, with Germany's fiscal stimulus partially offsetting trade war impacts [6][28]

【文/观察者网 邵昀】 因西班牙，将国防开支占国内生产总值（GDP）比例提高到5%，美国总统特朗普暗示要对西班牙征收"双倍"关税。据彭博社报道，西班牙首相桑 切斯26日在比利时布鲁塞尔对此反唇相讥，谴责特朗普此举对西班牙而言是"双倍的不公平"（doubly unfair）。 桑切斯对媒体说："欧洲乃至全世界一直饱受贸易战的折磨，我们——至少在西班牙——从一开始就认为这些关税措施不公平，而且是单方面的。 就西班牙而言，这些措施更是双倍的不公平。"桑切斯强调，特朗普的关税政策通常是针对那些对美存在贸易顺差的国家，但西班牙对美只有贸易 逆差。 英国《卫报》评价，相比其他欧洲国家，桑切斯对特朗普的关税威胁更加直言不讳。英国《金融时报》称，一名西班牙官员说，桑切斯团队对特 朗普的威胁"毫不动摇"，因为上周桑切斯给北约秘书长吕特发公开信，拒绝5%的目标时，马德里方面就已经估算过潜在的美方报复影响，结论 是：关税威胁并不严重。 报道指出，如果美国针对西班牙出口份额大的产品，如钢铁、铝和汽车加税，将不可避免地波及其他26个欧盟成员国，其中也包括那些愿意接受 特朗普5%军费目标的国家。美国当然也可以选择打击西班牙特有的商品，如 ...

金十数据6月26日讯，欧盟领导人将讨论他们应对特朗普贸易战的战略，其选择实质归结为接受不平等 贸易协议或冒险升级报复措施。据知情人士透露，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩将在周四的晚宴上向欧盟领 导人介绍与美国谈判的进展情况。欧盟需要在7月9日之前与特朗普达成协议，否则对美国几乎所有出口 商品的关税都将增加到50%。消息人士表示，近周谈判已加码推进，双方就关税/非关税壁垒展开详细 磋商，同时涉及关键产业、战略采购及欧盟简化议程力图解决的监管议题。官员们认为最佳方案仍是达 成原则性协议，使谈判能延续至7月初截止期后。但同时也应筹备反制预案，丹麦首相弗雷泽里克森周 四强调："建议全力避免贸易战，但若美国坚持立场，我们必须对等反制。" 欧盟就美关税陷两难抉择 冯德莱恩将向成员国介绍谈判情况 ...

Group 1 - The meeting between Trump and von der Leyen during the G7 summit did not lead to the expected easing of US-EU relations, with Trump criticizing the EU and demanding a "choose one" approach [1] - The EU has announced a countermeasure list against the US worth €116 billion, reflecting ongoing trade tensions [1][12] - The EU's previous countermeasure list from May 8 included €95 billion worth of goods, aiming to use it as leverage in negotiations with the US [4] Group 2 - Trump's announcement of a 20% "reciprocal tariff" on EU goods in April, followed by a temporary delay, indicates a strategy of extreme pressure in trade negotiations [6] - EU officials privately believe that even if negotiations conclude, the US is unlikely to fully remove additional tariffs on EU goods, likely retaining a 10% baseline tariff [9] - The EU is preparing retaliatory measures if the US maintains the 10% baseline tariff, indicating a potential for ongoing trade conflict [11] Group 3 - The trade dispute has escalated to a point where the aviation industry is becoming a significant battleground, with concerns over unfair competition between Airbus and Boeing [8] - Trump's trade policy reflects a unilateral approach, viewing the EU as a structural trade adversary, which complicates negotiations [16][20] - The EU's internal divisions are evident, with France opposing acceptance of the 10% tariff, highlighting the challenges in reaching a unified stance [12] Group 4 - The ongoing trade tensions between the US and EU are seen as a precursor to a broader restructuring of global trade order, with potential negative impacts on both economies [31] - The Davos Forum in China presents a contrasting narrative of open cooperation amidst rising protectionism, emphasizing the need for a rules-based global economy [33][29] - The outcome of the US-EU trade conflict could lead to a scenario where both parties suffer significant economic consequences, underscoring the importance of finding a cooperative solution [31][33]

► 文 观察者网 齐倩 报道称，近几个月来，中国稀土磁铁出口大幅下滑，全球汽车及其他高科技产品供应链因此受阻，欧洲 受到的影响尤为严重。尽管中国承诺加快审批速度，但在欧洲，稀土短缺问题依然持续存在。 托莱多称，总体而言，中欧间贸易和经济关系"不太明朗"。他还透露，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩和欧洲 理事会主席安东尼奥·科斯塔计划于下个月访华。 随后，托莱多开始"诉苦"，援引数据称，中国经济自2017年以来增长了40%，但欧盟对华出口却下降了 30%。他还声称，欧洲只是想要一个"公平的竞争环境"。 据彭博社6月25日消息，欧盟驻华大使豪尔赫·托莱多当天表示，欧洲请求中方理解欧洲企业的"恐惧和 顾虑"，磁铁短缺对欧企造成了"非常、非常严重"的影响。 托莱多称，欧盟希望中方可以在下个月解决对欧稀土磁铁出口问题。 今年4月，美国总统特朗普对华加征畸高关税后，中方迅速出手反制，包括对一系列关键矿产和稀土磁 铁实施出口管制。有业内人士透露，中方正在建立出口许可制度。随着管制影响显现，美西方企业哀 号"稀土荒"，开始联合媒体炒作所谓"稀土武器化"，企图展开对华舆论战。 对此，外交部发言人此前已明确表示，中方出台的出口管制措施符合 ...

五矿期货农产品团队 农产品早报 2025-06-26 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周三美豆继续回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，不过美豆估值略低，可能存在一定支撑。国内豆粕期 货继续回落，现货压榨量本周或创新高，累库压力增大，周三国内豆粕现货跌 30 元/吨左右，华东报 2820 元/吨。据 MYSTEEL 统计周三国内豆粕成交较弱，提货也回落。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程，不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动。 当前美豆端生物柴油政策提供利好，意味着需求端压榨量的预测边际向好，美豆的库销比水平可能支撑 其估值，但考虑到全球蛋白供 ...

法国总统马克龙：与特朗普讨论了贸易战。 ...

法国总统马克龙：在当前贸易战的背景下，不能要求我们在国防方面增加支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the impact of high tariffs on consumer goods and the potential for Japanese companies to explore opportunities in the US market while mitigating risks by diversifying their supply chains [1][4]. Summary by Sections US-China Trade Relations - Despite recent agreements to lower tariffs, the current rates remain significantly higher than before the Trump administration, with the US imposing tariffs as high as 145% on Chinese goods, temporarily reduced to 30% under a 90-day agreement [2][4]. - The actual tariff rate for the US on Chinese goods is approximately 51.3%, while China's effective tariff rate on US goods is around 37.5%, indicating a mutual escalation of tariffs that negatively impacts both economies [4][5]. Impact on the US Economy - The high tariffs have led to shortages of consumer goods in the US, contributing to rising prices and empty shelves, while US exports have decreased significantly, with a reported 30% drop in export volumes at the Port of Los Angeles [5][6]. - The temporary nature of the tariff suspension creates uncertainty for businesses, particularly small and medium enterprises, which struggle to plan for the future amid fluctuating trade policies [5][6]. Japan's Trade Dynamics - Japan's trade has been affected by global economic cycles, with exports experiencing fluctuations due to the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, leading to a trade deficit in recent months [9][10]. - Japan's export structure is heavily reliant on high-value products such as automobiles and semiconductors, while its imports are primarily raw materials and energy, making it vulnerable to global price changes [9][10]. Japan-US Trade Negotiations - The US has imposed a 10% base tariff on all Japanese goods, with specific tariffs of 25% on automobiles and parts, which are critical to Japan's economy [14][15]. - Japan is actively seeking the removal of these tariffs, emphasizing the importance of the automotive sector in its export economy, which constituted 28.3% of total exports to the US in 2024 [14][15]. Recent Trends and Challenges - Japan's exports to the US have seen a decline, with a 1.8% drop reported in April 2025, marking the first decrease in four months, primarily driven by reduced automobile exports [17]. - The strengthening of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar have further complicated Japan's export competitiveness, contributing to the trade imbalance [17][12].