智通财经记者 | 田鹤琪 国内成品油价迎年内第二次搁浅。 4月30，国家发改委发布消息称，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况，按照现行成品油价格形成机制，本次国内汽、柴油 价格（标准品）不作调整。相关价格联动及补贴政策按现行规定执行。价格执行时间自今日24时起。 本轮是2025年第九次调价，也是年内的第二次搁浅。本次调价过后，2025年成品油调价将呈现"三涨四跌两搁浅"的格 局。 据卓创资讯测算，4月29日收盘，国内第10个工作日参考原油变化率0.66%，预计汽柴油上调30元/吨，因本周期内原油 变化率对应的汽柴油零售限价调整幅度不足50元/吨，不满足50元/吨的调价必要条件。 本计价周期以来，国际原油价格走势震荡下行，国内测算的原油变化率正值区间不断回落。 图片来源：隆众资 讯 下一轮成品油价存在下调概率。 隆众资讯表示，展望后市，全球经济面临衰退风险，市场对需求前景仍不乐观，且美国与伊朗谈判进展顺利、俄乌和谈 也出现转机，地缘局势整体趋于缓和。此外，欧佩克+维持增产立场，也打压业者心态。整体来看，预计下一轮成品油 调价下调的概率较大。 卓创资讯成品油分析师高青翠分析认为，未来美联储大概率维持高利率，且美国贸易政 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - policies, trade situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and products show diverse trends, with some in a weak state and others showing signs of recovery or stability [7][8][9]. - For most products, short - term market sentiment and long - term supply - demand fundamentals jointly determine price trends. Traders need to consider both short - term fluctuations and long - term impacts when making decisions [17][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - China emphasizes Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responds to the US on the tariff war. As of April 30, 2024, A - share listed companies' annual revenue and net profit decreased year - on - year. The central bank releases housing loan interest rate data. The US has certain statements on tariffs and job vacancies, and China's coal industry focuses on import order [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The market expects China's April official manufacturing PMI to decline, with enterprises under pressure from the tariff storm. The policy stance is clear, and the strategy suggests considering option covered strategies [7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is strong due to factors such as loose funds, expected low PMI, and reduced trade volume. The policy focuses on fiscal policy, and the long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are still strong, with a flat yield curve. It is recommended that cautious investors wait and see [7]. 3.4 Container Shipping on European Routes - The price of Maersk's WEEK20 quotation has dropped, and the market is in a weak and volatile state. Before the holiday, the market is expected to remain weak, and the future price depends on the supply - demand structure. It is recommended to take appropriate profit on short positions before the holiday [8]. 3.5 Cotton - International and domestic cotton prices are under pressure due to factors such as the US tariff issue, demand concerns, and supply - side factors. Domestic cotton is in a weak position at a low level, and attention should be paid to domestic export trends [9]. 3.6 Sugar - International and domestic sugar prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand, contract expiration, and weather. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the 9 - 1 spread may rebound [9][10]. 3.7 Oils and Fats - **Palm oil**: It is in a short - term multi - empty intertwined state, affected by factors such as seasonal production increase and demand improvement [10]. - **Soybean meal**: The supply pressure will increase in the future, and the short - term price follows the spot market [11]. 3.8 Eggs - The egg price is weak, and the supply may increase in the future. It is recommended to have a short - bias operation on egg futures, and reduce short positions before the holiday [12][13]. 3.9 Apples - The spot price is strong, and the inventory is low. The new - season production needs to be evaluated due to weather impacts. It is recommended to lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices [13][14]. 3.10 Red Dates - The market is in a traditional off - season, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to the growth of jujube trees and downstream stocking [14]. 3.11 Live Pigs - The spot price is weak, and the supply pressure may increase after the holiday. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias and light positions [14][15][16]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The international oil price is falling due to OPEC+ production increase and weak demand. The future trend will be mainly driven by production increase and economic recession, and may be repaired if the trade war eases [17]. 3.13 Fuel Oil - It follows the oil price decline, and the future performance depends on the demand's ability to bear the production increase under the influence of the trade war [18]. 3.14 Plastics - L and PP are recommended to be short - biased, and the long - term trade situation is not optimistic [19]. 3.15 Rubber - It is in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to hold and wait for the RU - NR spread [19]. 3.16 Methanol - It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and short - bias allocation can be considered if there is a rebound [20]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - The price of high - concentration caustic soda is falling, and it is recommended to wait and see [20]. 3.18 Soda Ash and Glass - **Soda ash**: The price may rebound slightly in the short term but is restricted in the long term by high supply and inventory [20]. - **Glass**: The price is expected to be volatile or weakly volatile due to weak demand [20]. 3.19 Asphalt - The price is expected to be in the range of 3300 - 3400, and the inventory reduction provides support [21]. 3.20 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - It mainly follows the oil price, and the future price may be in a volatile state with a long - term downward trend in the center [21]. 3.21 Pulp - It has a pattern of weak demand and high inventory, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [21]. 3.22 Logs - The demand is weak, and the short - term is expected to be volatile. Short on rebounds in the short term and buy out - of - the - money call options in the long term [21]. 3.23 Urea - The spot price is rising, and the futures price is falling. It is recommended to sell at high prices in the short term and wait and see during the holiday [21]. 3.24 Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: It is expected to be volatile and strong, continuing to repair the decline caused by tariffs [22]. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday and lightly go long for cost support in the long term [22]. 3.25 Lithium Carbonate - It is recommended to adopt a volatile trading idea, as the short - term price decline may narrow [22]. 3.26 Steel and Iron Ore - The steel and iron ore market is under pressure in the medium - long term, and the steel price may be volatile in the short term [22][23]. 3.27 Coal and Coke - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and there are no conditions for long - positions for now [24]. 3.28 Ferroalloys - **Silicon iron**: Go long during the day. - **Manganese silicon**: Sell the 06 - contract put option [24][25].

迪拜国际机场CEO：目前还没有看到任何明显迹象表明贸易战对货运量产生实质性影响，但也不能排除 未来会有影响。 ...

| 航运衍生品数据日报 | | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/4/30 | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | '三三 | 现值 | 1348 | 1112 | 2141 | 1230 | 3257 | 1260 | | Alle | 前值 | 1370 | 1111 | 2103 | 1368 | 3251 | 1316 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -1.62% | 0.13% | 1.81% | -10.09% | 0.18% | -4.26% | | 情 | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | | ...

g a station and the state of the state | 热卷基差(右轴) - 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75mm: - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 -200 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,SC = 期货收盘价(活跃合约):焦炭 1000 铁矿基差(右轴) 牛板价:盲岛港:澳大利亚:超轻 2000 1500 000 -500 黑色盒属数据日报 | 2025/04/30 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "Trend Weak" [1] Core View - Considering factors such as continuous commissioning of new production capacity, low maintenance volume, weak demand, and cost - side pressure, the polyethylene trend still faces pressure [2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7122, with a daily decline of 0.60%, trading volume of 261,574, and an increase of 8592 in positions [1] - Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was 218 yesterday (compared to 186 the day before), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 66 yesterday (compared to 63 the day before) [1] - Spot prices: In the North China region, it was 7340 yuan/ton yesterday (7350 the day before); in the East China region, it was 7350 yuan/ton yesterday (7380 the day before); in the South China region, it was 7550 yuan/ton yesterday (7600 the day before) [1] Spot News - The LLDPE market price adjusted weakly, with a price fluctuation range of 10 - 100 yuan/ton. The futures opened lower and fluctuated weakly, dampening market trading sentiment. Most petrochemical ex - factory prices were stable at the end of the month, and most traders had completed their monthly quotas, with quoted prices fluctuating slightly. Downstream buyers made small - order replenishments to maintain production, and actual transactions were negotiated on a case - by - case basis [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro aspect: The trade war is difficult to end in the short term. Polyethylene faces negative feedback, and the market still tends to short polyethylene profits in the later stage [2] - Impact of US tariff hikes: In 2024, the value of Chinese plastic products exported to the US accounted for 16.75% of the total plastic exports, and the proportion has been declining in recent years. After the US tariff hikes, the decline trend of Chinese plastic product exports to the US may become more obvious [2] - Supply - demand situation: In the 09 contract of 2025, the new domestic PE production capacity is expected to be 2.55 million tons, with relatively high supply pressure. The maintenance volume from May to June is less than that in April, which is insufficient to change the high - production pattern. On the demand side, affected by the trade war, the peak season for agricultural films has passed, and the demand will continue to decline. The demand for packaging films is average. Although downstream factories have phased low - price replenishment, the continuous replenishment intensity is insufficient, making it difficult to achieve significant polyethylene destocking and form positive feedback [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [3]

期货研究 烧碱：暂时是震荡市 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2431 770 2406 -25 2025 年 4 月 30 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 780 元/吨，较上期价格持平。低度碱整体维持观望，高度 碱连续降价后，部分贸易商开始低价拿货，询单较前期增加明显。短期仍需关注企业库存、送货量数据情况 的变化。 【市场状况分析】 宏观层面，贸易战短期难以结束。二季度烧碱处于需求淡季，仍需压缩利润，供应减产才能使得供需平 衡。 需求层面，氧化铝低利润，叠加其原料烧碱库存高，虽然新增产能投放导致刚需上升，但短期对烧碱囤 货需求偏弱。非铝需求普遍偏弱，部分行业受贸易战影响较大。不过今年的出口方向仍能对烧碱起到很强支 撑，但主要在于囤货节奏。4 月开始，出口订单出现好转，但贸易战使得外商的采购非常谨慎，持续追高囤 货的可能性较低。 从供应端看，烧碱后期 5 月份仍然存在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Energy is in the process of replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), a task that will take several years, following significant withdrawals by the Biden administration [1][3]. Group 1: Strategic Petroleum Reserve Replenishment - Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticized the Biden administration for irresponsibly selling off the SPR, stating that the rapid release has damaged energy infrastructure [1]. - The Department is currently working on replenishing four SPR sites and repairing two others, while seeking additional funding to expedite these efforts [1]. - In March, Wright indicated that the Department was preparing to purchase $20 billion worth of crude oil as the first step in replenishing the national SPR [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - Analysts suggest that the multi-year large-scale crude oil purchasing plan by the U.S. will provide a long-term stable demand source for the market, potentially supporting oil prices to some extent [3]. - As of now, the WTI crude oil price is approximately $61 per barrel, having declined nearly 14% since the beginning of the year [3]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its global oil demand growth forecast, predicting a 30% drop to 730,000 barrels per day by 2025, and further slowing to 690,000 barrels per day by 2026 [3].

【文/观察者网专栏作者 江宇舟】 特朗普此番来势汹汹的贸易战发动至今已有三月，"对等关税"推出也将近一月。在这个过程中，中国从 一开始就给予坚决反击，不退让一步，也彻底打乱了特朗普的节奏，让关税执行效果与发动时的声势完 全脱节： 说好要"不会豁免加征"，保质期不到72个小时；贝森特和卢特尼克说"70国排队签约"，到如今连G7都不 买账；至于"等中国打电话"，更引发了海内外舆论罕见的一致群嘲，超级大国每天都在用各种姿势表演 着尊严扫地，国内经济特别是金融市场也随之震荡杀跌。 通炒作后，全世界都知道他打不通中国电话。网络图片 但越是如此，一些足以颠覆规则的下三滥招术越被美国政客们不以为耻地津津乐道，包括但不限于试图 封堵中国航运、威逼有关国家中止对华合作、尤其是近期美国政客集中提议各国以限制对华贸易换取美 国豁免。商务部对此的评论是"绥靖换不来和平，妥协也得不到尊重。" 当此之时，面临股债汇三杀的特朗普政府总是含糊其辞，频频抛来橄榄枝，称将大幅降低对华关税，并 看好后续谈判。那么，如何看待特朗普政府的反复无常？本次贸易战又将走向何方？ 一、特朗普2.0时期贸易战的特点 首先，我们要明确一点，特朗普此番"求和"是缺 ...

商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】隔夜贵金属小幅震荡，以伦敦金计价的国际金价维持在 3300 美元/盎司一线，沪金主力收于 785 | | | 金 | 元/克。 | | | 属 | 【消息面】美国商务部长谈及部分关税谈判进展，声称有的已谈妥待批准；特朗普预计将采取措施减轻其汽 | | | | 车关税政策带来的冲击。 | | | | 【经济数据】3 月份美国商品贸易逆差比上月增长了 9.6%，达到 1620 亿美元。进口增长 5%至 3427 亿美元， | | | | 其中消费品进口量激增 27.5%，企业纷纷在关税实施前"抢跑"进口；美国 3 月 JOLTS 职位空缺 719.2 万人， | | | | 预期 750 万人，低于媒体调查的所有经济学家的预测；3 月份美国商品贸易逆差比上月增长了 9.6%，达到 1620 | | | | 亿美元。进口增长 5%至 3427 亿美元，其中消费品进口量激增 27.5%。 | | | | 【库存数据】国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日估算流入 0.2 吨，COMEX 黄金库存前一交易 ...