Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Regarding the overall market, the market is frequently disturbed by Sino-US tariff conflicts. Although future tariffs may drop to around 50%, this level still has a significant impact on China's exports. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [4][5]. - For different varieties, there are various investment suggestions and trend judgments, such as considering IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or staying on the sidelines for stock index futures; being moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds for treasury bond futures; suggesting to take a short - selling approach for eggs; considering short - selling the LH2507 contract for live pigs, etc. Summary by Directory Macro Information - Trump stated that tariffs on Chinese goods will "drop significantly but not to zero", which is a response to Treasury Secretary Bessent's comment. Bessent expected the tariff war between the two major economies to "de - escalate" [5]. - China's attitude towards the US tariff war is clear: not willing to fight but not afraid to fight. China will fight if necessary and is open to talks [5]. - China and Azerbaijan will strengthen cooperation in trade, investment, green energy, and the digital economy [5]. - China's consumer market has achieved a stable start this year. In the first quarter, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 12.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%, and the growth rate was 1.1 percentage points faster than the whole of last year. The consumer market is expected to continue to develop steadily [5]. - The US Treasury Secretary adheres to the strong - dollar policy [5]. - The eurozone's April manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 48.7, the service PMI preliminary value was 49.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value was 50.1. The US April S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 51.4, and the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.7 [5]. - Several OPEC + member states will suggest that the organization accelerate oil production increases for the second consecutive month in June [5]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines. The stock market fluctuated narrowly due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about selling restrictions. The future tariff reduction to around 50% still has a large impact on domestic exports. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes of weak economic expectations but strong micro - liquidity expectations [5]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Be moderately optimistic about ultra - long - term bonds. The money market was loose after the tax payment period, and bond market sentiment was weak due to the overnight easing of US tariffs on China and market discussions about the central bank's investigation of duration mismatch risks. The market is in a state of anxiety, and a landmark action is needed for confirmation. If resonance can be formed in the long - and short - term dimensions of the fundamental and capital aspects, it may drive the mid - term market [5]. Container Shipping to Europe - Viewpoint: Take profit on long positions in the main contract. The market sentiment on the disk has recovered, but most shipping companies will continue to use the April 30th booking quotes in early May, and some route quotes have been slightly reduced. There are many uncertainties in the market, and the average spot quote may further decline [6][7]. Cotton - Logic and Viewpoint: Domestic actual orders and demand prospects are still worrying. Although there may be a short - term relief, there is still pressure for the domestic cotton price to rebound from a low level. The domestic cotton price rebounded from a low - level shock, boosted by the easing of the global trade situation, but concerns about upstream and downstream demand remain [7]. Sugar - Logic and Viewpoint: There is a stage - based abundant supply, and there is still uncertainty in making up the production - demand gap. The sugar price will fluctuate. The domestic sugar price mainly follows the international sugar price. The supply is increasing in Brazil, and the exchange rate of the Brazilian real is appreciating. In China, the drought in the south has been alleviated by rainfall, which has suppressed the sugar price [7]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short - sell palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. For palm oil, the current production area has entered the production - increasing season, and the weather is expected to improve in the next two weeks, which will help increase production. For soybean meal, although there is short - term spot tension, the supply pressure will be large in May and June [7][9]. Eggs - Viewpoint: The upward pressure on the spot price is increasing, and there is a possibility of a gradual weakening. It is expected that the egg futures will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [8][9]. Apples - Viewpoint: Lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices. The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and there is an expectation of price increase. The May Day holiday stocking continues, and the market in both the production and sales areas is booming [9]. Red Dates - Viewpoint: Stop losses on short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area. The Xinjiang jujube trees have entered the budding stage, and the supply in the Hebei market is sufficient. The demand for tonics has decreased, and the trading atmosphere in the sales areas is relatively light [9][10]. Live Pigs - Viewpoint: Consider short - selling the LH2507 contract. The consumer demand is weak, and it is the seasonal off - season. The supply side shows a continuous inventory accumulation phenomenon. The short - term support for the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the continuity of second - fattening entry and the changes in the sales volume of leading enterprises [11]. Crude Oil - Future Outlook: In the long - term trading logic of the crude oil market, the supply side has pressure due to OPEC +'s planned production increase of 410,000 barrels per day in May. The demand side is affected by the weakening US economy and the global trade war. The upward space of oil prices is limited [12]. Fuel Oil - Future Outlook: Fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price fluctuations but be relatively stronger than crude oil. The key is to evaluate the demand's ability to bear the production increase under the influence of the trade war [12]. Plastics - Viewpoint: After the L and PP rebound, they can be short - sold. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the long - term impact of tariffs on export demand is large, and the downstream demand is weakening [13]. Rubber - Strategy: There is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand, and it is difficult to have a trend - like fluctuation. Stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. After the NR04 delivery, pay attention to the opportunity of the RU - NR price difference to widen [13]. Methanol - Viewpoint: Short - sell after the rebound. The international trade environment is still poor, and the demand is expected to weaken. The import supply is increasing, and the downstream profit is poor, which may lead to shutdowns [13]. Caustic Soda - Future Outlook: The spot price is expected to be weak after a round of replenishment. The futures price will also show a similar trend, and it is recommended to maintain a weak - fluctuation trading idea [14]. Soda Ash and Glass - Viewpoint: For soda ash, the supply has marginally improved, but the high - inventory accumulation expectation still exists, and the price is expected to rebound in the short term but with limited space. For glass, there is a risk of decline due to the under - expected peak season. Consider the opportunity of long - glass and short - soda ash arbitrage [14]. Asphalt - Future Outlook: Without the expectation of a significant increase in crude oil prices, the asphalt price is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350. The inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the price has support, but the upper pressure comes from the oil price [15]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Future Outlook: In the short term, LPG mainly follows the crude oil price fluctuations. The long - term logic of increasing supply and decreasing demand may drive the center of the LPG futures price to move down, and currently, it is mainly in a state of oscillation [15]. Pulp - Future Outlook: Pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The weak demand and high inventory situation have not improved. The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15]. Logs - Viewpoint: Pay attention to the impact of funds and macro - sentiment. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [17]. Urea - Future Outlook: The spot market atmosphere is relatively poor, and the spot price is expected to decline under pressure. The UR2509 contract can be considered for long - buying after a significant decline [17]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The tariff tension has eased, but there is still uncertainty. The high premium of Shanghai aluminum has declined, but strong de - stocking is the main trend recently. It is expected that the aluminum price will oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [16][17]. - Alumina: The production capacity of maintenance and reduction is increasing, and the spot price is stable with strong cost support. However, the expected new production capacity is stable, and the supply surplus expectation is high. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short - term bottom range, and interval trading can be carried out [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: The impact of US tariffs on the lithium carbonate market is not significant. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand fundamentals, and it is advisable to adopt an oscillation trading idea [17][18]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: It is difficult to form a continuous de - stocking expectation. The market is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to short - sell. The previous short positions and sold call options can be held [19][20]. - Polysilicon: The 06 contract is difficult to fall deeply but has limited upward space. The 07 contract is priced according to the supply - demand contradiction. It is advisable to hold the previous short positions and sold call options and short - sell on rebounds [19][20][21]. Steel and Minerals - Market Outlook: The domestic steel market has weak demand in the building materials sector and some pressure in the coil sector. The supply is expected to increase, and the cost is basically stable. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the long - term, with limited short - term upward space [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - Viewpoint: Without large - scale production reduction of coal - coking enterprises or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, there is no condition for going long. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the short term [21]. Ferroalloys - Viewpoint: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and sell 06 - contract put options on silicomanganese. The current valuation of both is low, but there is a lack of rebound drivers [21][22].

Group 1: Trade Policies and Impacts - The U.S. President Trump continues to reinforce his trade war policies, specifically targeting non-tariff barriers set by the EU and Japan, while demanding Japan to significantly reduce its trade deficit with the U.S. [1] - Countries like Thailand and Vietnam are showing reluctance to quickly compromise with the U.S. on trade negotiations, indicating a shift in global trade dynamics [1][2]. - The U.S. is imposing new port fees on Chinese vessels, which could accelerate the shift of shipping orders from China to Japan and South Korea, potentially increasing global shipping costs [5][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 index down 6% in April, while the dollar index has dropped 5%, reflecting concerns over "stagflation" in the U.S. economy [2]. - Gold prices have surged over 2.5%, reaching a historical high of over $3420 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising market volatility [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing sector is facing challenges as companies like the American baby products firm are halting orders due to new tariffs, highlighting the impact of trade policies on domestic production capabilities [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain Adjustments - China has significantly reduced imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas, with a 70% decrease in the first quarter, as it shifts to suppliers in Indonesia and Qatar due to tariffs [3]. - The logistics sector is facing increased complexity and costs, with major shipping companies like DHL and FedEx adjusting their operations in response to new trade regulations [4]. - The Chinese shipbuilding industry is under pressure as U.S. tariffs may lead to a shift in orders to South Korea and Japan, which could raise global ship prices by 30% to 50% [6]. Group 4: Diversification Strategies - China is actively pursuing a diversified global economic strategy, with increased engagement in Southeast Asia and other regions to mitigate the impact of U.S. trade policies [9][11]. - The recent statistics show a rise in foreign buyers at trade fairs, with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative accounting for 72% of the total, indicating a shift in trade focus [9]. - Chinese manufacturing investment abroad has reached nearly $300 billion, with a notable increase in investments in Latin America and Europe, reflecting a strategic shift to counter geopolitical pressures [11].

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 04 月 24 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】中国 31 省份进出口全景图 （2024）：区域格局、商品结构与贸易方式》 2025-04-22 《【粤开宏观】"双标"的美国产业政策： 类型、动因、效果及思考》2025-04-15 《【粤开宏观】可以更加坚定地看好中国股 市》2025-04-08 《【粤开宏观】重新理解特朗普关税：中国 应对的三大原则和五大建议》2025-04-06 《【粤开证券】特朗普"对等关税"为何远 超市场预期？影响及下一步》2025-04-03 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】财政如何应对关税战？ 摘要 美国发起全球关税战严重破坏了全球经贸秩序，对华关税税率之高可能导致 中美贸易事实上脱钩，这在冲击美国经济的同时也将对中国的经济增长、出 口和就业产生较大冲击。充分估计形势的严峻性、充分做好应对的准备，未 雨绸缪，才能打赢关税战并化危为机；由此契机实施一系列改革，将推动中 国经济从债务和投资驱动转向科技和消费驱动、实现产业链高端 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, expressed regret over the U.S. imposing tariffs during the G7 and G20 meetings, highlighting that the trade war and its uncertainties harm the economy and emphasizing the need for constructive dialogue to correct global imbalances [1] Group 1 - The U.S. tariffs are seen as a source of economic harm, indicating a negative impact on global trade dynamics [1] - Kato's remarks suggest a call for international cooperation to address trade imbalances and reduce tensions [1] - The emphasis on constructive dialogue points to a potential shift towards diplomatic solutions in international trade relations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies and their impact on global markets, emphasizing the significant adjustments in the U.S. stock market following the announcement of new tariffs [2]. Group 1: Tariff Policy Analysis - Trump's initiation of a tariff war has shocked global markets, indicating a departure from traditional economic policies [2]. - The announcement of tariffs was expected to be targeted, but the actual implementation exceeded market expectations, suggesting a more aggressive approach [2]. - Trump's strategy appears to be influenced by internal dissent within his administration regarding the tariff policies [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The new tariffs have led to substantial adjustments in the U.S. stock market, reflecting investor concerns over the implications of the trade war [2]. - The potential for retaliatory measures from other countries has been acknowledged, with Trump indicating a willingness to escalate tariffs further if necessary [2].

Macroeconomic Overview - In April, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 50.7, above the expected 49 and previous 50.2; the Services PMI preliminary value is 51.4, below the expected 52.6 and previous 54.4; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 51.2, below the expected 52 and previous 53.5 [3] - The Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 48.7, above the expected 47.4 and previous 48.6; the Services PMI preliminary value is 49.7, below the expected 50.5 and previous 51; the Composite PMI preliminary value is 50.1, slightly above the neutral 50, below the expected 50.2 and previous 50.9 [4] - The data indicates that Manufacturing PMI values are performing better than Services PMI, suggesting that the impact of trade wars on manufacturing has not yet fully materialized, while the Services sector reflects economic sentiment more quickly [4] Company Analysis: Yiyuan Communication - Yiyuan Communication reported a 2024 revenue of 18.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.14%, with a gross margin of 17.61%, down 1.33 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 588 million yuan, up 548.5% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%, with a net profit of 145 million yuan, up 265% [7] - The growth is driven by a recovery in the IoT industry, with shipments of LTE, automotive, and 5G modules increasing by over 60% [7] Company Analysis: Sanhuan Group - Sanhuan Group reported a 2024 revenue of 7.375 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.8%, with a gross margin of 43%, up 3.15 percentage points; net profit attributable to shareholders is 2.19 billion yuan, up 38.6% [8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 1.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23%, with a net profit of 587 million yuan, up 33.8% [8] - The strong performance is attributed to a recovery in demand for consumer electronics and optical communication, as well as increased sales of MLCC products [8] Company Analysis: Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. achieved a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.15%, with a net profit of 394 million yuan, up 68.89% [10] - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, with a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 62.13% [10] - The overseas market remains the core source of revenue and profit, with a focus on OEM/ODM partnerships to enter international markets [10] Company Analysis: Wen's Food Group - Wen's Food Group reported a 2024 revenue of 104.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, with a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, up 244.5% [11] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 6.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 82.7% [11] - The company achieved profitability in its pig farming business, with a significant increase in pig sales volume and a rise in average selling price [12]

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing observation of the tariff war's developments, with a softening stance from U.S. President Trump positively impacting Asian markets, including Hong Kong stocks [2][4] - The Hang Seng Index saw a significant increase, closing up 510 points or 2.37%, with a total turnover of HKD 260.6 billion, reflecting a 3.7% increase from the previous day [2][3] - The report notes a substantial outflow from the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a net outflow of over HKD 18.1 billion, contrasting with the previous day's net inflow of HKD 21.36 billion [2] Industry Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, 10 sectors rose while 2 declined, with Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology leading the gains at 3.82% and 3.68% respectively, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 2.34% increase [3] - The report indicates that the U.S. stock market continues to rebound, particularly in technology stocks, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq rising by 1.07%, 1.67%, and 2.50% respectively [3] Company Analysis: Xtep International (1368.HK) - Xtep International is focusing on the running market, with its main brand maintaining healthy inventory and discount levels, while its sub-brand Saucony is experiencing rapid growth, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 40% [6] - The company plans to divest from KSWISS and Palladium, allowing it to concentrate resources on its main brand and Saucony, which is expected to lead to faster growth in the future [6] - The report suggests that the negative impact of tariffs on the company will be minimal, as most revenue is generated domestically, and the potential for increased domestic demand for sports products could positively influence sales [6] Investment Recommendation - The report predicts that Xtep International will benefit from the improving consumer environment, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.54, 0.61, and 0.67 HKD respectively, and assigns a target price of HKD 7 based on a 12x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [7]

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-04-24 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 美财长提"重大"贸易协议机遇 观点分享： 华盛顿当地时间 23 日，美国财长贝森特表示，美国需要实现经济再平衡，更多地依赖制 造业和出口，而非消费，如果外方愿意采取行动，从相反的方向，实现经济再平衡，两个主 要经济体就有机会就贸易问题达成"重大协议"。贝森特说："若外方希望重新平衡经济， 我们愿共同推进。"贝森特此后称，特朗普尚未对个别主要经济体提出单方面降低关税，双 方达成全面的贸易协议可能需要两三年时间。美国"非常接近"与印度达成一份贸易协议。 贝森特连续两日提及主要经济体达成贸易协议的可能，这次提到有达成"重大协议"的机遇。 中方的态度很鲜明，打，奉陪到底；谈，就好好谈。彼此尊重，讹诈和极限施压免谈。我认 为，特朗普与美财长态度的软化并不能理解为关税战已云淡风轻，接下来或进入打打谈谈的 拉扯与纠缠，特朗普的反复无常与美国为应对其核心矛盾的焦虑依旧，因此，市场的不确定 性依然存在，而对于我们，保持定力，见招拆招，该谈谈该硬硬，依然是理智的策略。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | -- ...

昨天，发生了哪些财经大事？ 特朗普称美对华关税 或将大幅下降， 我外交部回应 4月23日，外交部举行例行记者会。有记者问，据报道，美国总统特朗普对记者称，对华 145%关税确实很高，协议达成后美对华关税将大幅下降，但不会降至零。中方对此有何评 论？ 对此，郭嘉昆表示， 中方早就指出，关税战、贸易战没有赢家，保护主义没有出路，"脱钩 断链"只会孤立自己 。对于美国发动的关税战，中方的态度很明确， 我们不愿打，也不怕 打。打，奉陪到底；谈， 大门敞 开。 如果美方真的想通过对话谈判解决问题，就应该停 止威胁讹诈，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上同中方对话。一边说要同中方达成协议，一边不 断搞极限施压，这不是同中方打交道的正确方式，也是行不通的。 华裔CEO上任才1个月， 美国芯片巨头被曝大裁员 4月23日，据多家外媒报道，英特尔计划在本周宣布裁员超过20%的计划。这将是该公司自 1968年成立以来规模最大的一次组织调整。同时也是新任CEO陈立武（Lip-Bu Tan）上 任后推动的首次重大重组。截至2024年底，英特尔全球员工总数为10.89万人，若按20% 比例计算，裁员规模将超过2.18万人。此前，当地时间3月12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent positive signals from the U.S. regarding tariffs on China, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions and a shift in U.S. policy towards a more favorable stance on tariffs [2][3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy Changes - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the current trade conflict with China is unsustainable, suggesting a possible easing of tensions [3]. - The Trump administration is considering a tiered tariff system, imposing 35% tariffs on goods not deemed a national security threat and at least 100% on those considered strategic, with a gradual reduction planned [6][7]. - The financial markets reacted positively to these developments, with U.S. stock indices rising for two consecutive days [9]. Group 2: Financial Market Reactions - The article notes that the recent tariff discussions have led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. credit [15][18]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply from 3.86% to 4.59% within a short period, reflecting increased selling pressure [18]. - The U.S. dollar index has also declined significantly, dropping below 100 points, which signals weakening confidence in the dollar [21]. Group 3: China's Response and Currency Internationalization - In response to the evolving situation, China has made strides in internationalizing the renminbi, with a new action plan aimed at enhancing cross-border financial services [27][28]. - The CIPS system, China's version of SWIFT, is expanding, with coverage now reaching 119 countries and a projected settlement amount of 175.49 trillion yuan for 2024, a 42.6% increase year-on-year [30]. - The article emphasizes the importance of promoting the use of the renminbi in international trade to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and enhance China's financial stability [33][34]. Group 4: Long-term Implications and Strategies - The article suggests that the ongoing tariff negotiations will be a protracted process, with U.S. officials indicating that discussions will be challenging [38]. - It highlights the need for China to continue pushing for renminbi internationalization as a strategic response to potential financial conflicts with the U.S. [43][49]. - The article concludes that while the path to replacing the dollar as the world's primary currency is fraught with challenges, the current U.S. policies may provide a unique opportunity for China to strengthen its financial position [49][51].