Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for June showed an addition of 147,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 110,000, while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%. However, the private sector job growth was only 74,000, marking the smallest increase since October 2024 [3][5] - The rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields has diminished market expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, thereby reducing the attractiveness of gold [4] - The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate remains at 4.25%-4.5%. The strong non-farm data and potential inflationary pressures from the Trump administration's new policies increase the likelihood of the Fed maintaining a cautious stance [5][6] - The Trump administration's large tax cuts and spending bill, projected to add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade, may exacerbate inflationary pressures, although the current strong dollar and rising bond yields are temporarily overshadowing this [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that the gold market experienced a bullish trend at the beginning of the week, followed by a bearish reversal on Thursday, resulting in a doji candle that suggests indecision in the market [8] - Key support levels to watch include 3319, which aligns with the 60-day moving average, and 3311, the previous low. Resistance levels are identified at 3345 and 3350, corresponding to the 30-day and 20-day moving averages [9] - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3247, a strong upward movement was observed, but the price faced resistance at 3365/3366, entering an adjustment phase. Key support levels are at 3307/3306 and 3293/3292, while resistance levels are at 3345, 3354, and 3365/3366 [11]

Group 1 - The June non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected resilience in the U.S. job market, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider its decision to cut interest rates in July [1][3] - The U.S. Labor Department reported an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 110,000 and slightly above the revised figure of 144,000 for May [3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, the lowest since February, while the broader unemployment rate decreased to 7.7% [3] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, indicating steady wage growth [3] - The average workweek slightly declined to 34.2 hours, reflecting changes in labor demand [3] - In contrast, the ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, raising concerns about the labor market's strength [4] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury yields rose following the employment report, with the 2-year yield increasing over 10 basis points to 3.894%, and the 10-year yield rising over 6 basis points to 4.356% [1] - In Europe, bond yields fell as investors bought European government bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield dropping to 3.512% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Japanese bond yields rose, with the 30-year yield increasing by 8.6 basis points to 2.971% [5]

www.monetamarkets.com FOREN | INCES | CONNECTITIES | SHIRE CHINE CHINE CHILI Moneta外汇认为，尽管美国劳动力市场过去一年来展现出强劲韧性，但最新市场预期显示，就业增长正面临逐步降温的局面。6月份的非农就业报告即将出 炉，投资者普遍预计新增岗位将有所减少，而失业率可能升至4.3%，创下三年半以来的新高。 R KETA A MONETA i FORE PO H 2:10: RUITD Xtreme Next Ba (@Alti-Asset MONETA A 4 MONETA AN HN 图库提体系 版上最美的图像 Tool, 冲刺激的航空部落 无需交易经营 门槛上手 保局 - 美元静可加入 82 89,00 名世界级信号游,按偶年度交易策略 全面明散据十分流模式，收益看得见统,更安心 般时提交 / 取消订单,自由掌控交易 同时跟单多个糖味,打造多元化投资组合 分散风险,资金配置更安心! 理在就下载 MM APP 发射鼻手邪起, 板松学理交易电热! 日 Moneta外汇表示，从结构来看，这种放缓主要反映出企业在当前经济政策背景下对未来 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing fluctuations at high levels due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, global risk capital flows, and de-dollarization actions by various central banks [2] - The three main factors supporting the dollar—relative interest rate advantages, US economic resilience, and safe-haven buying—are facing challenges this year [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% since December of last year, with market expectations shifting towards potential rate cuts in September or November, which diminishes the dollar's upward momentum [4] - Recent US economic data shows signs of weakening, with initial jobless claims exceeding expectations, raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on the real economy [5] Group 3 - The competitive landscape for global currencies is changing, with the dollar's strong position being challenged [6] - The European Central Bank's potential slow pace of rate cuts due to persistent inflation may lead to a temporary decline in the dollar against the euro [7] - The Bank of Japan may end its negative interest rate policy, which could result in a strong rebound of the yen against the dollar [8] - The Chinese yuan and emerging market currencies are showing resilience due to supportive policies and capital inflows [9] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates key support levels for the dollar index at 104.20 and 103.50, with resistance levels at 106.00 and 107.10 [10] - Market sentiment is characterized by reduced bullish positions on the dollar, with increased implied volatility in the options market, suggesting intense competition between bulls and bears [11] Group 5 - Short-term strategy suggests a cautious approach with a focus on upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll and CPI data in July, which could influence the dollar's trajectory [12] - A diversified currency portfolio is recommended to hedge against dollar volatility, focusing on currencies like the euro, yen, and yuan [13] Group 6 - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is critical, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and a potential rise in the unemployment rate, which could impact the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in private sector employment, as indicated by ADP data, may lead to an earlier interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, impacting gold prices positively if the upcoming non-farm payroll data shows continued labor market weakness [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming June non-farm payroll report is crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, with economists predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs, down from 139,000 in May, and an expected slight rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [3]. - Any unexpected performance in the labor market could lead to significant market volatility, influencing investor confidence regarding interest rate cuts [3]. Gold Price Analysis - Technically, spot gold is expected to continue its upward trend, needing further confirmation, with the price struggling to break through the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around $3,350 per ounce [3]. - The 100-day and 200-day moving averages maintain a bullish slope well below the current gold price, while technical indicators lack strong directional strength [3]. Short-term Price Targets - The 4-hour chart suggests that gold prices may reach higher levels, targeting the next Fibonacci resistance at $3,373.50 per ounce [5]. - Following the release of the ADP data, gold prices surpassed the previous week's high of $3,357.88, indicating potential for further upward movement [6]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy focuses on buying on dips, with support levels identified at $3,333 and $3,327, while resistance levels are noted at $3,366 and $3,375 [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of upcoming non-farm payroll data on gold prices and market expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - The ADP employment data has sparked expectations for rate cuts, which directly catalyzed the rise in gold prices [1] - The non-farm payroll report is considered a key indicator for assessing the health of the U.S. labor market, with economists predicting an increase of 110,000 jobs in June, down from 139,000 in May, and an expected slight rise in the unemployment rate from 4.2% to 4.3% [2] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs analysts predict a more pessimistic scenario with only 85,000 new jobs added, alongside a reduction of 15,000 federal government positions, indicating potential pressures on the job market due to immigration policies and tariffs [2] - The importance of the non-farm payroll report extends beyond the data itself, as it provides guidance on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, with any unexpected labor market performance likely to trigger significant market volatility [2] - If the labor market continues to show weakness, investor confidence in rate cuts will strengthen, potentially supporting gold prices; conversely, strong data may lead the Fed to slow down rate cuts, exerting downward pressure on gold [2] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices experienced fluctuations, with a daily low of 3,327 and a high of 3,360, closing at 3,356, suggesting a potential upward trend with a focus on the 3,400 level [3] - The current price is below 3,350, with key support levels identified at 3,330 and 3,300, emphasizing the importance of the upcoming non-farm data for market direction [3]

日本央行审议委员高田创：随着降息可能性的减弱，美联储的货币政策操作在今夏仍值得关注。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed is expected to turn dovish in the July FOMC meeting, confirm the pace of rate cuts in the second half of the year, and cut rates by 25 basis points in the September FOMC meeting. In the context of the Fed's looser monetary policy expectations, focus on long - position opportunities in silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.26% to 779.66 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.71% to 8845.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.07% to 3362.20 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.12% to 36.77 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.3%, and the US dollar index was 96.74 [2] - **Other Market Indicators**: Au(T + D) fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) fell 0.77% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. The London Gold price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and the London Silver price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.06% to 947.66 tons, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 0.29% to 14869.01 tons [4] Market Outlook - The weak US ADP employment data released yesterday strengthened market expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy, which is a positive factor for precious metal prices. The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Powell emphasized the Fed's data - dependence in decision - making, and the ADP data reflected the weakening of the US labor market. The focus is on the US non - farm payrolls change in June to be released tonight, with the market expecting an increase of 110,000, lower than the previous 139,000. If the non - farm data is lower than expected again, market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will further increase [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.56% to 3368.70 dollars/ounce, but trading volume fell 21.25% to 129,500 lots, and open interest fell 1.42% to 435,000 lots. LBMA Gold's closing price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and inventory remained unchanged at 1152 tons. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) fell 0.01% to 776.04 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 8.70% to 303,900 lots, open interest fell 0.83% to 410,400 lots, and inventory rose 0.02% to 18.46 tons. Au(T + D) closing price fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, trading volume fell 23.89% to 29.77 tons, and open interest rose 3.54% to 225.29 tons [6] - **Silver**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.50% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, open interest fell 5.53% to 174,600 lots, and inventory fell 0.20% to 15,557 tons. LBMA Silver's closing price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.72% to 8,747.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume fell 4.76% to 627,700 lots, open interest fell 2.21% to 841,400 lots, and inventory fell 0.01% to 1,338.66 tons. Ag(T + D) closing price fell 0.77% to 8,737.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 26.04% to 521.32 tons, and open interest rose 0.35% to 3,142.008 tons [6] Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was - 4.41 yuan/gram (- 19.14 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was - 4.65 yuan/gram (- 20.18 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50] - **Silver**: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was 302.10 yuan/kilogram (1.31 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was 321.91 yuan/kilogram (1.40 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50]

根据美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）2日盘前发布的就业报告显示，2025年6月美国私人部门就业人数首 次出现下降，减少了33,000人，远低于预期的增加10万人。这一数据表明美国劳动力市场可能正在放 缓，引发市场关注，并可能影响美联储的货币政策决议。 CFRA Research的首席投资策略师萨姆·斯托瓦尔表示，如果6月份官方就业数据也未能如预期增长，美 联储可能会考虑在7月会议上进一步降息。此外，股市在报告发布后出现压力，投资者情绪更显谨慎。 受市场对美国就业市场恶化担忧和美国宣布与越南达成贸易协议影响，纽约股市三大股指2日低开，早 盘震荡，随后走势出现分化，收盘时纽约股市三大股指涨跌互现。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌10.52点，收于44484.42点，跌幅为0.02%；标准 普尔500种股票指数上涨29.41点，收于6227.42点，涨幅为0.47%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨190.24点，收 于20393.13点，涨幅为0.94%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块七涨四跌。能源板块和材料板块分别以1.70%和1.33%涨幅领涨，医 疗板块和公用事业板块分别以0.97%和0.87%跌 ...

Group 1 - The trade relationship between the US and Canada shows signs of easing, but this positive development has not had the expected uplifting effect on the Canadian dollar exchange rate, which is currently fluctuating around 1.3650 against the US dollar [1][2] - The Canadian government has announced the cancellation of the digital services tax, which paves the way for the resumption of trade negotiations between the two countries. This decision ends a heated dispute over the tax, which was set to impose a 3% tax on revenues from digital services provided to Canadian users by tech companies [2] - The US government strongly opposed the digital services tax, arguing that it primarily affects large American tech companies such as Amazon and Google, and previously threatened to halt all trade negotiations with Canada [2] Group 2 - The technical analysis of the USD/CAD exchange rate indicates significant resistance, with the price facing selling pressure each time it approaches the 20-day exponential moving average. The relative strength index is hovering around 40, and a drop below this level would signal further bearish sentiment [3] - The key support level is at the June 16 low of 1.3540, and if this level is breached, it could open up a decline towards the psychological level of 1.3500 [3] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is a central focus for the market, with expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the July meeting, while a 25 basis point rate cut in September has been fully priced in [3]