Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is weakening due to market concerns over Prime Minister Kishida's "dangerous" fiscal policy, leading to speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as April [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Former Bank of Japan committee member Makoto Sakurai suggests that the central bank must raise rates at least once before June or July, with a possibility of an earlier increase in April [1]. - Market expectations indicate a 40% probability of a rate hike in April, which would be earlier than the consensus [4]. Group 2: Yen Depreciation and Fiscal Policy - The yen has depreciated significantly, reaching a one-year low of 158.50 against the dollar, influenced by reports of Kishida's plans for early elections [1]. - Concerns over Kishida's fiscal stance are expected to keep the yen weak, impacting the central bank's rate decisions due to rising import costs exacerbating inflation [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Measures and Market Reaction - Kishida has announced the largest supplementary budget since the pandemic and the largest initial budget for the next fiscal year, aiming for an active yet responsible fiscal policy [5]. - Despite rising tax revenues due to inflation, Sakurai criticizes Kishida's approach of committing to spending without securing funding sources, labeling it as a loose and dangerous practice [5]. - The yield on 30-year Japanese government bonds reached a historic high of 3.52%, reflecting market skepticism about the government's long-term fiscal position [5].

对美联储利率前景有何影响？ 继上周美国非农报告后，市场今晚迎来美国最新CPI报告，普遍预计12月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，核心年率增速从11月的2.6%小幅回升至2.7%。本次数据恰 逢美国传统假期购物季，关于假期购物，可能提振整体消费数据。 另一干扰因素是此前美国政府停摆可能造成统计偏差，核心商品或拉动通胀全面加速，但非通胀压力实际上升所致，主要原因是11月数据因政府停摆的统计 偏差而被技术性压低。因此，这份"反弹"报告的实际指引意义有限，关键在于观察剔除食品能源后的服务类通胀（如住房、医疗）是否真正放缓。 如果CPI显著高于预期：市场将担心美联储降息时点大幅延后，利率敏感型板块（如科技、房地产）可能面临压力，从而考验财报季的乐观情绪。 数据如何影响美股？ 黄金将如何反应？ 黄金在周一亚市跳空高开直接测试4600美元的新纪录高位，若CPI强于预期，金价可能因"降息预期降温"而出现短线获利了结。但需注意，黄金与传统宏观 数据的关联性在减弱。若CPI温和，则为金价进一步上涨扫清了一个障碍。 这份报告是美联储1月利率会议前最重要的数据，在上周五非农公布后，目前市场已基本排除了1月降息的可能性。高盛的基准预测认为 ...

今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，国际黄金市场冲高回落，多空分歧加剧。截至发稿，伦敦金现报4584.07 美元/盎司，较前一交易日收盘价下跌14.57美元，跌幅0.32%，盘中曾短暂触及4600美元/盎司整数关口 后遇阻回落。 摘要今日周二(1月13日)亚盘时段，国际黄金市场冲高回落，多空分歧加剧。截至发稿，伦敦金现报 4584.07美元/盎司，较前一交易日收盘价下跌14.57美元，跌幅0.32%，盘中曾短暂触及4600美元/盎司整 数关口后遇阻回落。 中长期而言，黄金的基本面依然稳健。全球范围内，"去美元化"趋势不断加强，各国央行特别是新兴市 场国家如中国、印度等持续增加黄金储备，显示出对黄金长期价值的认可，这为金价提供了坚实的底部 支撑。同时，地缘政治紧张局势和不断攀升的全球债务水平增强了黄金作为避险资产的地位。汇丰银行 预测，在这些因素共同作用下，到2026年上半年，金价有望达到5000美元/盎司。此外，美国经济面临 的制造业疲软及消费挑战也预示着未来更宽松的货币政策环境，有利于黄金价格上涨。 【要闻速递】 综上所述，当前影响黄金走势的关键因素是美国12月CPI数据，短期内需密切关注4500美元/盎司关口 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. inflation trend is under scrutiny as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a temporary rebound in December, primarily due to statistical adjustments rather than a new wave of inflation [1][3] - The November CPI data was significantly affected by a 43-day government shutdown, leading to distortions in the statistics, particularly in housing-related components like rent [1][3] - Economists anticipate that the technical and seasonal factors impacting inflation will gradually dissipate in the December data, as real sampling resumed in late November [1][3] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that the December CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, remaining consistent with November [3][4] - Market expectations suggest that commodity prices will be the main contributor to the inflation rebound in December, with higher probabilities of price increases in new cars, furniture, and clothing after the holiday promotions [3][4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has indicated that the impact of the carry-forward imputation method used for rent calculations will not be fully corrected until April 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - Some economists believe that inflationary pressures have not disappeared, as tariff costs are increasingly being passed on to end prices, a trend that existed before the government shutdown [4] - The rebound in commodity prices is expected to outpace that of the service sector, with service prices, particularly in accommodation and airfare, also anticipated to rise in December [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month in December, with a year-over-year increase potentially rising to 2.7% [4]

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-13 权益走强，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号; 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号；中央经济 工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵 活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比 上升0.7%。 财政：（3）11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力不大， 财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更加向民 生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发行提速 带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济 形成一定支撑，但更强拉动 ...

Core Viewpoint - New York Fed President John Williams emphasizes the importance of central bank independence, warning that attacks on it can lead to negative economic consequences, including high inflation. He asserts that the current monetary policy stance is robust and does not require short-term adjustments to interest rates, with GDP growth projected at 2.5%-2.75% in 2026 and inflation expected to return to the 2% target by 2027 [1][4][5]. Group 1 - Williams defends Fed Chair Jerome Powell amid legal challenges, stating that the current monetary policy effectively supports labor market stability and aims to bring inflation back to the long-term target of 2% [3][4]. - He projects inflation to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to the 2% target by 2027 [4][5]. - Williams highlights that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adjusted its monetary policy stance to a more neutral level, indicating no immediate urgency for rate cuts [6][8]. Group 2 - He stresses the importance of achieving the 2% inflation target without causing unnecessary risks to the labor market, noting that recent data shows increased downside risks to employment and reduced upside risks to inflation [7][9]. - Williams acknowledges the political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates significantly, despite the current inflation being above target levels [8][9]. - He believes that the market's relatively calm response to the ongoing political and legal issues reflects uncertainty about how these matters will resolve, which limits significant asset price fluctuations [9].

政府停摆的统计扭曲尚未消散：劳工统计局在11月和12月数据中用假设填补租金及部分价格缺口，导致 住房成本、核心商品增速偏离常态，分析师普遍建议在正式修正前谨慎解读月度波动。 牛津经济研究院的伯纳德.亚罗斯预计12月CPI环比或达0.4%(高于共识)，并指出"趋势需待年中才能显 现"。EY-Parthenon美国首席经济学家格雷戈里.达科表示，2026年初通胀仍将微升但不会飙升，关税压 力短期持续但不阻碍长期回落。 【最新纸黄金行情解析】 工行纸黄金于2026年1月13日报价1029.76元/克，日内小幅回调0.59%，但仍处于历史高位区间，与沪金 期货、黄金t+d走势高度同步，受国际金价突破4600美元/盎司及美联储降息预期强化驱动。技术面呈现 强势多头趋势：价格持续运行于5日与20日均线之上，形成多头排列，布林带开口向上，短期支撑位约 1020元/克，阻力位聚焦1035–1040元/克。RSI维持在65附近，未达超买阈值，MACD红柱虽缩量但未翻 绿，动能仍具延续性。市场情绪受工行1月12日上调积存金风险等级影响，投资者谨慎情绪升温，但实 物与账户黄金需求未见明显回落。当前核心矛盾为趋势延续与政策调控之间的 ...

Group 1 - The international silver market is currently experiencing fluctuations, with prices trading above $84.29, opening at $85.16, and showing a decline of 0.81% to $84.47 as of the latest report [1] - The highest price reached was $85.39, while the lowest dipped to $83.40, indicating a short-term oscillating trend in silver prices [1] Group 2 - New York Federal Reserve President John Williams noted that inflation is influenced by tariffs, rising approximately 0.5 percentage points, primarily borne by the American public, but the underlying trend remains favorable without widespread price pressures [2] - He anticipates that inflation will peak in the first half of 2026 and gradually decline, returning to the 2% target level by 2027 [2] - Williams expressed optimism about the U.S. economic growth rate, projecting it to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, while emphasizing that monetary policy is currently "closer to neutral" and future decisions will depend strictly on data [2] - He highlighted the need for the Federal Reserve to balance controlling inflation with avoiding employment shocks as inflation risks diminish and employment market risks increase [2] Group 3 - Silver prices reached a high of around $86 recently, closing at $84.5, suggesting potential for adjustment while maintaining a bullish trend [3] - Support levels for silver are identified at $83.00 and $81.35, with resistance levels at $85.60 and $87.00 [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading around 1026 CNY/gram, with the latest price at 1027.10 CNY/gram, reflecting a decline of 0.41%. The highest price reached was 1033.27 CNY/gram, while the lowest was 1026.25 CNY/gram, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1]. - The daily chart shows that gold prices have been closing with gains, despite a pullback at the end of the previous day. The current price is above the upper boundary of the daily chart, suggesting two possible scenarios: a potential upward movement after a pullback or the formation of a "piercing line" pattern if prices reach the upper channel boundary near 4650 [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 4578, 462, 4506, and 4463, while resistance levels are noted at 4600, 4609, 4625, 4648, and 4687 [5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - New York Fed President Williams indicated that the U.S. economy is expected to grow healthily by 2026, suggesting no immediate need for interest rate cuts. He stated that the Federal Open Market Committee has adjusted monetary policy to a "near-neutral" level, balancing employment stability and inflation targeting at 2% [2]. - Williams projected a GDP growth rate of 2.5%-2.75% for the year, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and inflation peaking at 2.75%-3% in the first half of the year before declining to 2.5% for the full year, returning to the 2% target by 2027 [2]. - The backdrop of these statements includes unprecedented attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political pressures potentially impacting future policy decisions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The current monetary policy stance is robust, with no immediate need for interest rate adjustments, as stated by New York Fed President John Williams [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Williams emphasized that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has adjusted its "moderately restrictive monetary policy stance" closer to a neutral level [2]. - He noted that the current monetary policy effectively supports labor market stability and aims to bring inflation back to the long-term target of 2% [1][2]. - The expectation for GDP growth is optimistic, projected at 2.5% to 2.75%, with the unemployment rate remaining stable [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment Outlook - Williams anticipates inflation will peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to the 2% target by 2027 [1]. - He acknowledged that while inflation remains high, the labor market shows signs of cooling, leading to increased downside risks for employment [2]. Group 3: Defense of Powell and Independence Risks - Williams defended Fed Chair Jerome Powell, asserting his integrity and leadership during challenging times, amidst attacks on the Fed's independence [3]. - He warned against undermining the central bank's independence, stating that such attacks could lead to unfortunate economic consequences, including high inflation [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The market's response to the ongoing political and legal issues surrounding the Fed has been relatively calm, attributed to the uncertainty of how these matters will resolve [3][4]. - Williams described the current market volatility as moderate, indicating that the lack of certainty regarding the outcomes limits significant asset level changes [4].