Price Stability in Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with slight declines observed in some stores. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 1 yuan per gram, now priced at 1073 yuan per gram, which is among the highest in the market [1] - Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 999 yuan per gram, with the price difference between the highest and lowest stores narrowing to 74 yuan [1] Gold Price Overview - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: - Lao Miao Gold: 1071 yuan per gram (down 2) - Chow Tai Fook: 1073 yuan per gram (no change) - Zhou Liufu: 1038 yuan per gram (no change) [1][3] - Platinum prices have seen a decline, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry dropping by 7 yuan per gram to 554 yuan per gram [4] Gold Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling prices show a slight decrease of 1.7 yuan per gram. The recycling prices from different brands are as follows: - Cai Bai Gold: 824.30 yuan per gram - Chow Sang Sang: 816.60 yuan per gram - Zhou Dafu: 822.90 yuan per gram - Lao Fengxiang: 831.80 yuan per gram [4] International Gold Market Dynamics - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, with spot gold reaching a historical high of 3673.55 USD per ounce before closing at 3625.04 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [7] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including an Israeli airstrike in Qatar, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to gold price increases. However, the situation is deemed manageable, leading to a reduction in risk aversion [7] - The significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further stimulating gold prices [7]

Group 1 - The main contract for fuel oil futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2807.00 yuan, with a current price of 2794.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.38% [1] - Southwest Futures indicates that there is significant downward pressure on fuel oil prices due to high inventories in Singapore and a lack of momentum in the Asian fuel oil market [1] - The ARA refining storage center reported a fuel oil inventory of 1 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% week-on-week, indicating some supply adjustments [1] Group 2 - Ruida Futures expects short-term fluctuations in fuel oil prices to be weak, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and weak demand, while geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations provide some support [2] - Domestic refining capacity is recovering as major refineries complete maintenance, although the overall fuel oil supply remains high compared to the year [2] - The shipping market shows signs of recovery, but high inventories in Singapore continue to exert pressure on domestic supply, leading to overall weakness in fuel oil prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive [3][49]. - Since the beginning of this year, silver has been strongly favored. Although the silver price has risen by over 40% since the start of the year, it is still at a low level in terms of both absolute and relative prices compared to gold and copper, and has greater price elasticity, so its price trend is more promising [3][49]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Review - In August 2025, precious metal prices were strong. Weak US non - farm payroll data at the beginning of August and Trump's actions triggered recession concerns and increased rate - cut expectations, driving up precious metal prices. However, strong PPI data in July weakened the September rate - cut expectation, pressuring precious metal prices. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 20th boosted precious metal prices again. As of the end of August, the monthly increase of the COMEX gold futures main contract was 5.2%, and that of the COMEX silver futures main contract was 10.76%. In September, Trump's intensified intervention and weak non - farm data continued to strengthen rate - cut expectations and push up precious metal prices. The depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar in August made the domestic precious metal price increase weaker than that of the international market [8]. II. Analysis of Precious Metals Price Influencing Factors 1. Intensification of the Fed's Independence Crisis - Since Trump's second term in January 2025, he has repeatedly attacked Fed Chairman Powell for slow rate - cuts and threatened to dismiss him to offset the negative impact of tariff policies and reduce government debt interest. Although it is difficult to dismiss the Fed Chairman according to the current legal framework, the list of potential candidates has been narrowed to three. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in August shifted from hawkish to dovish, possibly indicating the beginning of the end of the Fed's independence. Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook on August 25th was the first direct dismissal by a president since the Fed's establishment in 1913, intensifying market concerns about the Fed's independence, lowering long - term US Treasury yields and the US dollar index, and pushing up gold prices [15][16]. 2. Weak Non - farm Payrolls Strengthen Rate - cut Expectations - The August non - farm payroll data continued to deteriorate, with only 22,000 new jobs added, far lower than the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the hourly wage growth rate was lower than before, all supporting the Fed's rate - cut. Other employment - related data also indicated a cooling labor market. Although the current evidence for a US economic recession is insufficient, Trump's greater control over the Fed provides political motivation for rate - cuts. Considering inflation data, the Fed may choose to cut rates by 25bp continuously, with 2 - 3 rate cuts this year [17][18]. III. Analysis of Market Structure and Capital Flows 1. Changes in the Gold - Silver Ratio - In August, the silver price outperformed the gold price, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio dropped from 90.4 to around 85. Recently, with the gold price hitting a new high, the ratio rebounded slightly. It is expected that the silver price will continue to catch up, and the gold - silver ratio is likely to continue to decline [22]. 2. Changes in Futures - Spot and Domestic - Foreign Price Spreads - In the first half of August, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fluctuated narrowly, and it depreciated in late August, narrowing the spread between Shanghai gold futures and COMEX gold futures. The spread between Shanghai silver futures and COMEX silver futures was within the normal range, and the domestic futures - spot spreads were also normal [24]. 3. Central Bank Gold - Buying Trends - Since 2010, global central banks have been net buyers of gold. In 2024, they bought over 1000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In the second quarter of 2025, central bank gold - buying slowed down, with a net purchase of 166 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease. However, the first - half - year purchase was above the five - year average and over 40% higher than the ten - year average. China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 10th consecutive month in August. It is expected that central banks will continue to buy gold in 2025, supporting gold demand [27][28]. 4. Changes in Precious Metals Inventories - Since December last year, due to the expectation of Trump's possible import tariffs on gold, a large amount of gold was transported to New York, increasing COMEX gold inventories. As of September 5, 2025, COMEX gold inventories were 38.96 million ounces (about 1212 tons), a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 129% year - on - year increase. COMEX silver inventories were 518.37 million ounces (about 16123 tons), a 2.38% month - on - month increase and a 69% year - on - year increase. In August, the silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased slightly [29][31]. 5. Analysis of Gold and Silver ETF Holdings - In the past three years, the positive correlation between the holdings of international gold and silver ETFs and precious metal prices has weakened. Recently, as the gold price hit new highs, funds flowed into gold and silver ETFs. In the second quarter of 2025, gold ETF investment was a key driver of gold demand. As of September 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR reached 982 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - ishares increased to 15194 tons [37][38]. 6. Changes in CFTC Positions - The non - commercial positions in COMEX represent the trend of speculative funds and usually lead the precious metal price trend. Since mid - August, the non - commercial net long positions in silver futures have increased rapidly, corresponding to the strong rise in the silver price. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures were 249,530 contracts, and those in COMEX silver futures were 55,923 contracts. The inflow of speculative funds directly promoted the precious metal price increase at the end of August and the beginning of September [43]. IV. Market Outlook and Operation Strategies - Trump's intervention in the Fed and weak US employment data have strengthened the market's rate - cut expectations. Multiple positive factors such as capital inflows into ETFs, central bank gold - buying, and the recovery of physical demand support precious metal prices. Short - term, it is not advisable to chase the rise of gold and silver, but in the medium - to - long - term, the outlook is positive. Silver is more favored due to its relatively low price and high price elasticity [49].

截止2025年9月5日，黄金ETF基金（159937）25年涨幅31.08%。近日，突破短期横盘位，重返升势。为什么？怎么看？后续还涨吗？一文带你看懂黄金的前 世今生，再来一次，假如你年少多金，你会选择持有还是卖出？ 黄金的供需 从全球黄金供需表中供给端来看，近年来黄金的供给端保持小幅度上涨。黄金的储量相对有限，且黄金的生产经营周期一般相对很长，从发现、开采到冶炼 加工通常需要数年的时间。也就是说，黄金的供给相对刚性。 爱美之心人皆有之，何况它是黄金。黄金的需求有黄金的需求可分为金饰制造、工业用金、金条和金币用金、央行购金和黄金ETF及场外投资等。目前金饰 制造需求占比最高 而去美元化也可以从美元占外汇比重逐步下降这一点看出来。老大哥不再是老大哥了，也意味着过往美国在全球拿铸币税的潇洒日子可能很快到头，这能忍 吗？那不得搞点事情，让你拿着美元买买国债，来美国投投资啥的吗。 （24年供需流量图） 黄金的定价逻辑 | 黄金属性 | 影响因素/指标 | 对金价影响方向 | 对交易指引信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金融属性 | 美元指数 | | 较强 | | | 美债实际利率[TI ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

黄黄金金新新高高，，权权益益整整固固，，切切忌忌盲盲目目悲悲观观 22002255年年99月月11日日--22002255年年99月月55日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周A股市场振幅较大，债市上涨，COMEX黄金突破新高。具体来看，本周市场有以下几个重 要方面 ： 本周A股市场振幅较大，但指数周跌幅并不高，上证指数下跌1.18%，深圳成指仅下跌 0.83%，日均成交金额2.57万亿元，仍处于历史高位水平。市场表现更像上涨中的调整，而 非下跌的开始。申万一级行业上，电力设备、综合、有色金属涨幅居前，国防军工、计算 机、非银金融跌幅居前。恒生指数上涨，港股表现强于A股。 02 债市方面，本周资金面均衡偏宽松，债市上涨，利率债和信用债均走强，预计纯债基金收 正。资金面上，本周尽管央行净回笼资金，但适逢月初资金面整体较为宽松。从机构行为来 看，本周权益市场波动加大，债市情绪难言乐观，其中交易盘分歧凸显，做多力量较为有 限，长债难破震荡区间。 03 商品方面，COMEX黄金打破了今年4月以来的箱体震荡格局，创出新高，或由于降息预期的 进一步抬升、对美联储独立性的担忧、地缘风险并未消除等因素。 04 海外方面，上周五至 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the weakening U.S. employment data, which has led to an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][54][62] - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.3%, while the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.4% during the week [2][3] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 13.0 basis points to 4.1%, and the dollar index decreased by 0.1% to 97.74 [2][3] Group 2 - The article notes that the U.S. added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% [62][73] - The ADP reported an increase of 54,000 jobs in August, also below the expected 68,000 [62] - Job openings in July were reported at 7.181 million, lower than the expected 7.382 million, indicating a weakening demand in the labor market [62] Group 3 - The article discusses the performance of various sectors, with communication services, consumer discretionary, and healthcare sectors showing increases of 5.1%, 1.6%, and 0.3% respectively in the S&P 500 [7] - In the Hang Seng Index, healthcare, materials, and consumer discretionary sectors rose by 7.1%, 6.6%, and 3.6% respectively [10] - Conversely, energy, financials, and utilities sectors in the S&P 500 saw declines of 3.5%, 1.7%, and 1.1% respectively [7] Group 4 - The article highlights that the market is now shifting from rate cut expectations to recession trading due to the disappointing employment data [72] - The Federal Reserve's expectation for a 50 basis point rate cut in September has increased following the weak employment figures [54][62] - The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming CPI data and the potential for further adjustments in employment figures [54][62]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices reached new highs last week, driving the performance of gold stocks and increasing the scale of gold ETFs in 2023 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The uncertainty in the global macro environment has enhanced the allocation value of gold [1] - Funds are rapidly entering the market through ETFs and other tools, leading to continuous expansion of related products and extending the "windfall" to related sectors of the industry [1] Group 2: Strategic Positioning - Under the backdrop of de-dollarization and a surge in central bank gold purchases, the strategic importance of gold is becoming increasingly prominent [1] - Coupled with expectations of interest rate cuts and high debt risks, gold is at the beginning of a new cycle, further enhancing its function as a long-term safe-haven asset [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in non-farm payrolls, leading to a resurgence in recession trading, emphasizing the importance of gold as a strategic investment opportunity. The market is increasingly concerned about demand falling below expectations, which may signal a return to relative gains for precious metals [5][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report notes that the recent decline in non-farm payrolls has led to a renewed focus on the gold sector, with gold outperforming copper. This shift indicates growing market concerns about demand [5]. - Three catalysts are identified for the recent rise in gold prices: 1. Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with nearly 90% probability for a September rate cut following dovish signals from Powell [5]. 2. Increased geopolitical risks, particularly from the Russia-Ukraine situation and trade tensions with India [5]. 3. Continued central bank purchases of gold, with global central banks increasing their gold holdings for ten consecutive months [5]. - The report suggests a shift towards increasing allocations in gold stocks, highlighting companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining as potential beneficiaries [5]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that expectations for interest rate cuts are driving stability in copper and aluminum prices. Copper prices have shown a slight increase, while aluminum prices have declined [6]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum have increased, with copper stocks rising by 5.79% week-on-week and aluminum stocks increasing by 0.87% [6]. - The report anticipates that while demand for copper and aluminum may decline in the second half of the year, the supply constraints will limit the extent of this decline [6]. - Key companies to watch in the copper sector include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and Jinchuan Group, while in aluminum, companies like Zhongfu Industrial and Hong Kong China Aluminum are highlighted [6]. Strategic and Energy Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic value of rare earths and tungsten, noting that recent regulatory measures in China are likely to enhance the market for these metals [7]. - The report also highlights cobalt and nickel as metals with high supply concentration, with cobalt prices expected to rise due to strategic purchases by the U.S. government [7]. - Lithium is noted to be in a bottoming phase, with expectations for increased demand in energy storage applications [7]. Key companies in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium [7].

Economic Overview - The U.S. stock market closed lower last Friday due to a weak non-farm payroll report for August, indicating a significant cooling in the job market and raising concerns about the U.S. economy [1] - Following the release of the August non-farm payroll report, the market now anticipates a 100% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Employment Market - The August non-farm payroll report showed only 22,000 new jobs added, marking the weakest job market since the pandemic began [2] - Excluding healthcare, the total employment has seen negative growth for the first time in 25 years, except during recession periods [4] - The healthcare sector has been the primary source of job growth in recent months, but it is now also experiencing a noticeable decline [4] Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Economists expect the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 2.9% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, indicating limited progress in curbing inflation [2] - The core CPI, excluding volatile items like food and energy, is projected to increase by 3.1% year-over-year, remaining consistent with July's levels [2] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate of achieving full employment and maintaining a 2% inflation rate is under pressure due to the current economic conditions [2] Consumer Sentiment - The upcoming Michigan University Consumer Sentiment Index for September will provide insights into consumer psychology amid a slowing job market and uncertain inflation outlook [1] - Despite a relatively low unemployment rate of 4.32%, there is growing concern among workers about future job losses, which negatively impacts consumer confidence [4]