■ "3600点A股攻守道"系列报道之政策红利篇 步入2025年下半年，A股市场震荡上行，交投活跃度提升，投资者情绪随政策预期升温持续回暖。伴 随"十四五"规划进入收官之年，财政政策提效与产业转型升级协同推进，一系列尚未被市场充分定价的 政策红利正步入兑现阶段。 接受中国证券报记者采访的资深分析师认为，在"两新"政策扩围与"反内卷"产能出清的双轮驱动下，下 沉市场消费升级、银发经济产业链以及"专精特新"企业成为被低估的价值洼地。伴随四季度中美降息共 振预期强化，红利资产防御属性与科技成长板块弹性或将共同主导市场结构性机会，政策与市场的动态 博弈正步入关键阶段。 财政政策"上下半场"接力稳增长 上半年，我国财政政策延续了更加积极的基调，加大支出强度，加快支出进度，优化支出结构。展望下 半年，我国财政政策仍具备较大操作空间。 方正证券研究所副所长、首席经济学家燕翔对记者表示，从政策优先方向看，城市更新、"投资于 人"、"反内卷"、"两重两新"及产业升级等领域成为重点支持对象。城市更新已进入2.0阶段，内容从单 纯的老旧小区改造扩展至建筑节能、地下管网建设及智慧治理等方面，体现出政策的系统性和前瞻 性。"投资于人" ...

Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Outlook - China's fiscal policy has maintained a proactive stance in the first half of the year, with increased spending intensity and optimized expenditure structure, indicating significant operational space for the second half [2][3] - Key areas of focus for fiscal support include urban renewal, investment in human capital, and industrial upgrades, reflecting a systematic and forward-looking approach [2][3] - The broad fiscal revenue and expenditure gap has increased by at least 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, highlighting the critical role of fiscal policy in stabilizing consumption, investment, and the financial system [3] Group 2: Consumer Market and Policy Incentives - The introduction of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods is expected to benefit the lower-tier markets and the silver economy, which are seen as undervalued opportunities [4][5] - The "old for new" policy is anticipated to enhance consumer upgrading in lower-tier markets, with significant potential for the home appliance market due to the aging of previous policies [5] - The aging population is expected to drive demand in healthcare, elderly services, and related industries, creating investment opportunities in medical devices, innovative drugs, and elder care services [6] Group 3: Industry Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The "anti-involution" policy is reshaping the industrial landscape by promoting the exit of inefficient capacity, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved profitability due to their competitive advantages [7] - The focus on "anti-involution" is not merely about capacity reduction but aims at optimizing market mechanisms for high-quality industrial development [7] - The investment logic for core assets in the A50 index is shifting from "reassessing resilience" to "reassessing growth," indicating a potential revaluation of these assets as the real estate cycle stabilizes [9] Group 4: Market Opportunities and Investment Strategies - The current market strategy involves a dual approach of "dividend assets as a shield" and "new tracks as a spear," with dividend assets providing stability amid uncertainty and new sectors driving structural opportunities [8] - The expectation of synchronized interest rate cuts in China and the U.S. is likely to lower financing costs for the real economy and attract foreign investment into the A-share technology growth sector [10] - The anticipated decline in financing costs may stimulate demand in the real estate sector and consumer goods, enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese exports [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current economic conditions in China, focusing on various sectors such as electricity generation, industrial production, infrastructure, real estate, and consumer goods, indicating a mixed recovery with some areas showing growth while others are experiencing declines. Group 1: Electricity Generation and Industrial Production - As of July 24, the cumulative electricity generation from coal-fired power plants increased by 3.3% year-on-year, reaching a high for the year, influenced by high temperatures and increased air conditioning usage [1][5]. - The operating rates of upstream industrial raw materials are generally better than previous values, with the operating rate of blast furnaces increasing by 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Construction - There has been a slight improvement in infrastructure physical workload, with the national cement shipment rate recorded at 39.9%, up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - However, the funding availability rate for construction sites remains a concern, with a national average of 58.7%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 percentage points [8]. Group 3: Real Estate Market - Real estate sales continue to show weakness, with the average daily transaction area in 30 major cities down 18.3% year-on-year [11][12]. - The number of second-hand housing transactions in 82 cities decreased by 18.7% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown in the market [12]. Group 4: Consumer Goods and Retail - Retail sales of passenger cars grew by 9% year-on-year from July 1 to 27, a slowdown compared to the previous month's 15% growth [12][14]. - Sales growth for major home appliances remains relatively high, although there is a noted slowdown in the latter half of July [14]. Group 5: Export and Shipping - Container throughput at domestic ports increased by 5.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight recovery in export activities [16][17]. - The data shows a gradual normalization of exports to the U.S., with container shipping numbers showing a small positive increase compared to previous months [16][17].

展望下半年，国家发展改革委将着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，进一步做强内循环、优化外循 环、搞好双循环，努力完成全年预期目标和"十四五"规划各项任务，为"十五五"良好开局打好基础。 7月31日，国家发展改革委召开2025年上半年发展改革形势通报会。会议部署了多项重点任务，包括稳 就业、扩大内需、推动"人工智能+"行动走深走实、破除"内卷式"竞争等。 会议指出，今年以来，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效，主要经济指标表现良好，新质 生产力积极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我 国经济展现强大活力和韧性。 近期国家发展改革委还会同财政部，向地方下达了今年第三批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧 换新资金。按计划将于10月下达今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债资金，继续支持地方实施消费品以 旧换新政策。 同时，国家发展改革委还将因地制宜培育壮大新质生产力，推动"人工智能+"行动走深走实，推进低空 经济高质量发展，激发数字经济创新活力。 在纵深推进全国统一大市场建设方面，国家发展改革委继续强调要破除"内卷式"竞争，深入推进招标投 标制度改革，规范地方招商 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.77% and 1.62% respectively, with a total trading volume of 1,843.965 billion yuan [2][7] - In the Shenwan industry classification, steel, oil and petrochemicals, and media sectors led the gains, while electric equipment, computers, and automobiles lagged behind [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong decreased by 1.36%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 2.72% [2][7] - In the U.S. market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.38%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.15% [2][7] Important News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee in October 2025, focusing on the formulation of the 15th Five-Year Plan for national economic and social development [3][8] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation [3][8] Industry Performance Light Industry - The light industry sector's performance in the first half of 2025 was lackluster, with a pre-profit rate of 46%. As of July 28, 2025, 165 A-share companies in this sector had a disclosure rate of 33% [9] - 17% of light industry companies reported losses for the first half of 2025, with 37% of companies experiencing continuous losses [9] Paper Industry - The paper sector showed a higher pre-profit rate of 67%, while the packaging and printing sector's loss ratio decreased [10][11] - The paper industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" initiative, which aims to eliminate backward production capacity and restore profitability [11] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector had a pre-profit rate of 51% for the first half of 2025, with 43 out of 107 A-share companies disclosing their performance [13][14] - The proportion of companies reporting losses increased from 28% to 35%, while the percentage of companies with profit growth decreased from 28% to 23% [13][14] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture sector showed an overall positive trend with a pre-profit rate of 69%, and the proportion of companies reporting profit growth increased significantly [17][18] - The animal husbandry and animal health sectors performed particularly well, with a notable reduction in the number of companies reporting continuous losses [17][18] Inverter Exports - In June 2025, China's inverter exports amounted to 6.576 billion yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 10.23% and a year-on-year increase of 0.92% [19][21] - The Asian market maintained high growth, particularly in the Middle East, while the North American market showed signs of recovery [19][21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the paper industry that can benefit from the "anti-involution" policy and have cost advantages [11] - In the textile sector, attention is drawn to companies with strong brand power and those likely to benefit from improved consumer demand [15] - The agriculture sector's leading companies, particularly in animal husbandry, are recommended for investment due to their improved profitability outlook [17]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued the third batch of 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds this year to support the consumption of old goods replacement [1][2] - Since 2025, 280 million people have applied for subsidies under the old goods replacement policy, leading to sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [1] - Retail sales of major household appliances and related products have seen significant year-on-year growth, with increases of 30.7% for home appliances, 25.4% for audio-visual equipment, 24.1% for cultural and office supplies, and 22.9% for furniture [1] Group 2 - The NDRC plans to issue another 69 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special bonds in October to continue supporting local implementation of the old goods replacement policy [2] - The NDRC, in collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce, aims to ensure balanced and effective use of funds across regions and sectors [2] - Continuous improvement of policy implementation mechanisms is emphasized, including product quality and price regulation to prevent fraudulent practices [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market" with an expected relative increase of over 10% compared to the market index in the next six months [4][27]. Core Insights - The light industry performance forecast is subdued, with a pre-profit rate of 46%. As of July 28, 2025, 54 out of 165 A-share companies in the light industry have released performance forecasts, resulting in a disclosure rate of 33%, ranking 6th among eight major consumption sectors [1][9][24]. - The paper-making sector shows a higher pre-profit rate of 67%, while the packaging and printing, home goods, and entertainment goods sectors have pre-profit rates below 50% [2][14][24]. - The report highlights a significant increase in the number of companies in the light industry experiencing losses, with 17% of companies forecasting their first loss in the first half of 2025, and 37% of companies continuing to report losses for two consecutive years [1][10][24]. Summary by Sections Light Industry Performance - The light industry has a pre-profit rate of 46%, ranking 8th among consumption sectors. The number of companies forecasting profit growth has decreased compared to the previous year, with only 17% expecting an increase and 0% expecting slight increases [1][10][24]. Paper-making Sector - The paper-making sector has a pre-profit rate of 67%, indicating stable profitability. The disclosure rate for this sector is 39%, with a notable performance differentiation among companies [2][14][15]. - In the first half of 2025, the paper-making sector saw a mix of performance forecasts, with 1 company expecting profit growth, 3 expecting a decrease, and 2 companies turning losses into profits [2][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities related to the "anti-involution" initiative, which aims to eliminate excessive competition and promote reasonable pricing based on actual costs. This is expected to help restore profitability in the paper-making sector [3][24][25]. - Additionally, the report recommends paying attention to opportunities arising from the "two new" policies, which aim to stimulate investment and consumption through government support for equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement [3][24][25].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report 2025/7/29 [1] - Data Source: Third - party - Researcher: Liao Hongbin - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On Tuesday, Treasury bond spot yields weakened collectively, and Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank continued net injections, and the weighted average DR007 rate fell to around 1.56%. Domestically, the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed in June, but weak PPI remained a drag. Industrial growth rose slightly, fixed - asset investment and social retail sales declined slightly, and the unemployment rate remained stable. Socially - financed growth exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Overseas, the US July S&P Global Composite PMI rebounded unexpectedly, the labor market was stable, and global trade tensions eased. Affected by policy themes, risk appetite increased, and the bond market was under pressure. If relevant policies are further introduced, the bond market may continue to face pressure in the short - term, and interest - rate bonds may be adjusted. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short - term and allocate after stabilization [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - **Closing Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.25%, 0.17%, 0.06%, and 0.78% respectively [2] - **Trading Volumes**: T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 94 and 5157 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1398 and 677 respectively [2] 2. Futures Spreads - TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 spreads decreased by 0.09, 0.02, and 0.01 respectively; T09 - TL09, TF09 - T09, TS09 - T09, and TS09 - TF09 spreads increased by 0.64, 0.09, 0.21, and 0.12 respectively [2] 3. Futures Positions - **Main Contract Positions**: T and TS main contract positions decreased by 625 and 2929 respectively, while TF main contract positions decreased by 32, and TL main contract positions increased by 488 [2] - **Top 20 Long and Short Positions**: T top 20 long positions decreased by 379, and short positions increased by 1659; TF top 20 long positions increased by 1156, and short positions increased by 309; TS top 20 long positions increased by 149, and short positions decreased by 2562; TL top 20 long and short positions increased by 3633 and 3786 respectively [2] 4. CTD (Cheapest to Deliver) - The net prices of various CTD bonds, such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc., all decreased [2] 5. Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of active Treasury bonds with maturities of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y decreased by 1.75bp, 2.05bp, 2.50bp, 2.25bp, and 1.75bp respectively [2] 6. Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, Shibor overnight, and 7 - day interest rates all decreased [2] 7. Industry News - The national child - rearing subsidy system implementation plan was announced on July 28. From January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under 3 years old [2] - In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline compared to May. The profits of new - kinetic - energy industries represented by the equipment industry grew rapidly. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased 13.7 times year - on - year, and the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% year - on - year [2] 8. Key Data to Focus On - July 29, 22:00, US July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - July 30, 20:15, US July ADP Employment (in ten thousand people) [3]

Macro and Strategy Research - In the first half of 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.8% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 4.3% in June [2][3] - The industrial added value increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by increased working days and the delayed effect of tariff suspension on exports [3][4] - The operating income grew by 2.5% year-on-year, while the profit margin decreased to 5.15%, down 4.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on enterprise profits [3][4] Fiscal Data Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 115,566 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 3.4% to 141,271 billion yuan [6][9] - Government fund budget revenue fell by 2.4% to 19,442 billion yuan, but expenditure surged by 30% to 46,273 billion yuan, indicating a strong push in fiscal spending [6][10] - The overall fiscal expenditure (public fiscal expenditure + government fund expenditure) increased by 8.9% year-on-year, reflecting a robust fiscal support environment [10] Fund Research - All major indices in the equity market were raised, with public fund scale surpassing 34 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [12][14] - The week saw a net inflow of 19.22 billion yuan into the ETF market, with significant inflows into cross-border ETFs, while stock ETFs experienced net outflows [14][15] - The issuance of new funds decreased, with 23 new funds launched, raising 276.61 billion yuan, reflecting a slight contraction in market activity [14][15] Industry Research - The paper industry is experiencing a rebound driven by "anti-involution" sentiments, with a 5.07% increase in the paper sector from July 1 to 25, 2025 [16][20] - The third batch of national subsidies amounting to 69 billion yuan has been allocated to support the consumption of old goods, which is expected to stabilize furniture product sales [20] - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market, while the textile and apparel sector lagged behind, indicating sector-specific performance variations [16][20]

Core Insights - The article highlights the ongoing low-price competition among industries such as steel, cement, and photovoltaics due to insufficient demand, leading to a situation where "increment does not equal profit" [2][4] - Industrial profits in China have shown a decline, with the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reaching 34,365 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [1][3] - The need for "anti-involution" measures is emphasized to correct the current market dynamics and improve profitability [2][6] Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of the year, the mining industry experienced the largest profit decline, with total profits of 4,294.1 billion yuan, down 30.3% year-on-year [3] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry saw profits of 4,170.4 billion yuan, growing by 3.3%, but this was a decrease from 3.7% in the previous period [3] - The manufacturing sector's profits totaled 25,900.6 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.5%, down from 5.4% [3][4] Price Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in June decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, significantly impacting industrial profit growth [1][3] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.15% in the first half of the year, which is 0.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year [1] Sector-Specific Performance - The raw materials manufacturing sector's profit growth slowed to 6.8%, a decline of 4.3 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing, including furniture and textiles, showed negative profit growth, with beverage manufacturing profits down 2.1% [4] - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced rapid revenue and profit growth, with profits increasing by 96.8% in the automotive industry due to promotional activities and investment returns [5][6] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to help stabilize industrial profits, with a focus on controlling new investments and improving cash flow through shorter accounts receivable periods [6][7] - The government plans to implement measures to support consumption and stabilize employment, which may further enhance demand and improve industrial profitability [9] Future Outlook - Experts predict that industrial profits may gradually recover in the third quarter due to ongoing policy support and improved market conditions [8][9] - The emphasis on equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies is expected to continue, contributing to a positive trend in industrial profits [9]