Core Viewpoint - Precious metals are experiencing significant volatility, with silver undergoing substantial adjustments due to profit-taking and market sentiment shifts, despite long-term supportive factors such as central bank gold purchases and weakening dollar credibility [2][18]. Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals are facing increased volatility, particularly silver, which has seen a significant adjustment [2][18]. - The U.S. November CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%, while core CPI rose by 2.6%, below the anticipated 3% [2][18]. - The overall downward trend in CPI provides room for potential interest rate cuts, supporting precious metal prices [2][18]. - Recent profit-taking and margin adjustments by exchanges have led to sharp fluctuations in precious metal prices, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [2][18]. Group 2: Stock Indices - The U.S. three major indices declined, with the oil and petrochemical sectors leading gains while the non-ferrous metals sector lagged [3][11]. - The market turnover reached 2.16 trillion yuan, with financing balances decreasing by 2.037 billion yuan to 25,264.62 billion yuan [3][11]. - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is accelerating, with the offshore RMB exchange rate briefly surpassing the 7.0 mark, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [3][11]. - The anticipated return of overseas capital and the revaluation of Chinese assets are supported by improved policies and funding expansion [3][11]. Group 3: Copper - Night trading saw copper prices drop by 2.8% due to profit-taking, despite ongoing tight supply conditions for concentrates [4][19]. - The smelting profit margins are at breakeven, with overall smelting output continuing to grow [4][19]. - Market sentiment is influencing short-term copper prices, with a focus on changes in the dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [4][19]. Group 4: Industry News - Several lithium iron phosphate companies announced maintenance and production cuts scheduled for January 2026, with reductions ranging from 35% to 50% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The copper futures price is expected to rise strongly and historically exceed 100,000 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, driven by macroeconomic policies, supply constraints, and structural shortages [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - China's macroeconomic policy for 2026 is set to focus on "stability while seeking progress," aiming to expand domestic demand and optimize structure, which will resonate with the copper market fundamentals [1] - The global macroeconomic environment is characterized as "stable but fragile," with uncertainties from policy shifts, geopolitical conflicts, and protectionism affecting copper prices [2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to shift its policy focus and begin a rate-cutting cycle in September 2025, which will support copper prices through a weaker dollar [2] Group 2: Supply Constraints - The global copper supply faces fundamental challenges due to hard resource constraints, with limited new discoveries since 2015 and a long lead time for new projects [3] - The average grade of global copper mines has declined from 0.68% in 2001 to 0.45% in 2023, leading to increased mining costs and reduced efficiency [3] - Supply chain disruptions in 2025, including power outages and natural disasters, have significantly impacted copper production, exacerbated by geopolitical risks and policy changes in key producing countries [3] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The copper concentrate processing fees have sharply declined, marking the industry’s entry into a "zero processing fee era," with significant implications for profitability [4] - Despite the profit squeeze, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11.76% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025, supported by long-term contracts and favorable prices for by-products [4] - The industry is undergoing a supply-side reform, shifting focus from expansion to resource security and reasonable profits, driven by policy constraints and industry self-discipline [5] Group 4: Import Trends - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased by 8.12% year-on-year, with a notable decline in the second half of the year [6] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo has surpassed Chile as China's largest supplier of electrolytic copper, driven by increased imports of cost-effective "non-registered" brand copper [6] Group 5: Demand Drivers - Investment in the power sector is shifting towards grid upgrades, with significant investments expected to support copper demand, particularly in the context of energy transition [7] - The automotive industry is experiencing strong growth, especially in the electric vehicle segment, which has a higher copper usage per vehicle, driving marginal demand for copper [7] - Copper is increasingly recognized as a strategic resource essential for global energy transition and AI infrastructure, enhancing its long-term price outlook [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unique and urgent nature of China's economic development strategy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic policy formulation and implementation for the upcoming years [1]. Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's economic growth rate reached 5.2%, aligning closely with its potential growth rate, and the output gap has narrowed significantly compared to 2024 [1]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, a slight decline from 2024, while China's economy continues to outperform globally [1]. Industrial Resilience - China's industrial economy demonstrated resilience in 2025, with stable agricultural performance, strong industrial output, and a well-developed service sector, leading to continuous optimization of the industrial structure [2]. - The added value growth rate of large-scale equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing approached 10%, showcasing robust industrial competitiveness [2]. Risk Management - Significant progress has been made in preventing and mitigating major risks, particularly in the real estate sector, which is showing signs of improvement [2]. - The article highlights the need to prioritize economic construction and maintain reasonable growth within the framework of high-quality development [2]. Policy Recommendations - Three key policy suggestions are proposed to enhance economic growth: 1. Strengthening supply-side advantages by optimizing the industrial system and promoting intelligent, green, and integrated development [3]. 2. Focusing on demand-side reforms to address consumption deficiencies, encouraging local governments to adopt diverse strategies to stimulate consumption [3]. 3. Upgrading the macroeconomic governance system to coordinate supply and demand, ensuring a balanced economic cycle [4].

Core Viewpoint - The home improvement and building materials sector experienced a slight decline, closing at 16,536.31 points with a drop of 0.19% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - The sector saw varying degrees of decline among individual stocks, with PIANO leading the drop at 21.08 CNY per share, down 5.77% [1] - DEL Future closed at 6.19 CNY per share, marking a decrease of 3.28%, ranking second in the decline [1] - Jingxue Energy closed at 22.42 CNY per share, also down 3.28%, ranking third in the decline [1] - Conversely, Yangzi New Materials led the gains with a closing price of 4.86 CNY per share, up 9.95% [1] - Xilinmen followed with a closing price of 23.09 CNY per share, up 6.16%, ranking second in gains [1] - Filinger closed at 33.14 CNY per share, up 5.68%, ranking third in gains [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Huafu Securities' report highlighted that the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control increments, reduce inventory, and optimize supply [1] - The report also mentioned encouraging the acquisition of existing residential properties for use in affordable housing and promoting the reform of the housing provident fund system [1] - There is an expectation for a turning point in the building materials capacity cycle due to accelerated supply-side reforms and a reduction in competition [1]

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 贵金属延续强势 十四届全国人大四次会议于 2026 年 3 月 5 日在北京召开，全国政协十四届四次 会议于 2026 年 3 月 4 日在北京召开。全国财政工作会议 12 月 27 日至 28 日在 北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出 盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三 是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强 化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。中国 11 月规模以上 工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业利润增速加 快。俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫 28 日说，俄总统普京当天与美国总统特朗普通电 话，双方均认为，以公民投票为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。 重点品种：贵金属，股指，铜 贵金属：现货白银快速拉升，继续刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%， 低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期， 引发市场质疑，但 CP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the multiple positive factors of institutional improvement, capital expansion, and industrial empowerment, the long - term and steady bullish pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, capital protection, and industrial drive" [2] - Supply - side reform may push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks [2] - With the establishment of the RMB appreciation expectation, overseas funds are expected to flow back and drive the revaluation of Chinese assets [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts were 4657.00 (current month), 4642.00 (next month), 4638.40 (next quarter), and 4591.00 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 20.20, 18.00, 22.20, and 23.00 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 32939.00, 3163.00, 70821.00, and 11923.00, and the open interest being 63400.00, 4104.00, 175215.00, and 45186.00. The changes in open interest were 1048.00, 1321.00, 10739.00, and 3100.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3048.00 (current month), 3047.20 (next month), 3051.40 (next quarter), and 3043.40 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 14.00, 13.80, 15.60, and 14.40 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 12280.00, 1167.00, 31969.00, and 5669.00, and the open interest being 21080.00, 1314.00, 55790.00, and 14660.00. The changes in open interest were 2764.00, 197.00, 5033.00, and 1596.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7456.40 (current month), 7415.40 (next month), 7388.00 (next quarter), and 7204.20 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 49.20, 54.40, 58.40, and 59.00 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 38607.00, 6003.00, 84671.00, and 20263.00, and the open interest being 69603.00, 8579.00, 157607.00, and 57359.00. The changes in open interest were 3168.00, 3688.00, 13072.00, and 5849.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7595.00 (current month), 7530.00 (next month), 7472.40 (next quarter), and 7234.00 (inter - quarter). The price changes were 35.20, 42.40, 42.60, and 39.00 respectively, with the corresponding trading volumes being 52688.00, 8047.00, 125247.00, and 26977.00, and the open interest being 92540.00, 12848.00, 194890.00, and 81327.00. The changes in open interest were 1388.00, 4117.00, 11763.00, and 4412.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 15.00, - 0.80, - 41.00, and - 65.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 13.40, 0.00, - 41.40, and - 73.40 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4657.24, 3045.40, 7458.84, and 7605.53 respectively, with the price increases of 0.32, 0.41, 0.65, and 0.35 respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of hands) were 175.40, 34.10, 199.28, and 266.26 respectively, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 4604.27, 1009.17, 3869.14, and 4736.66 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors had price increases of - 0.13%, 3.16%, 0.98%, and 1.33% respectively. The major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology sectors had price increases of - 0.27%, - 0.09%, 0.05%, and - 0.85% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities sectors had price increases of - 0.90% and - 0.11% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous day's basis values of IF (current month - CSI 300), IF (next month - CSI 300), IF (next quarter - CSI 300), and IF (inter - quarter - CSI 300) were - 0.24, - 15.24, - 18.84, and - 66.24 respectively [1] - The previous day's basis values of IH (current month - SSE 50), IH (next month - SSE 50), IH (next quarter - SSE 50), and IH (inter - quarter - SSE 50) were 2.60, 1.80, 6.00, and - 2.00 respectively [1] - The previous day's basis values of IC (current month - CSI 500), IC (next month - CSI 500), IC (next quarter - CSI 500), and IC (inter - quarter - CSI 500) were - 2.44, - 43.44, - 70.84, and - 254.64 respectively [1] - The previous day's basis values of IM (current month - CSI 1000), IM (next month - CSI 1000), IM (next quarter - CSI 1000), and IM (inter - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 10.53, - 75.53, - 133.13, and - 371.53 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic Major Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3963.68, 13603.89, 8264.77, and 3243.88 respectively, with the price increases of 0.10%, 0.54%, 0.53%, and 0.14% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25818.93, 50407.79, 6929.94, and 24340.06 respectively, with the price increases of 0.17%, 0.13%, - 0.03%, and 0.23% respectively [1] 5. Macro Information - The National Fiscal Work Conference proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, optimize the government bond tool portfolio, and focus on six key tasks [2] - Trump and Zelensky held a meeting on the proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", and a strong security agreement between the US and Ukraine is being negotiated [2] - As the 2025 trading is coming to an end, many financial markets will be closed during the New Year holiday. The December PMI data of China and the US will be released, the Fed will release meeting minutes, and Buffett will retire [2] - The national venture capital guidance fund has been launched, focusing on early - stage projects and seed enterprises in key fields and expected to leverage trillions of funds [2] - Hainan Free Trade Port has started the whole - island customs closure operation, with significant achievements in the first week, including a large increase in the number of new foreign - funded enterprises and the implementation of preferential customs policies [2] 6. Industry Information - The input of producer services in China's manufacturing industry has increased from 9.7 trillion in 2017 to 14.1 trillion, providing key support for technological upgrading and industrial chain collaboration [2] - China's grain output in 2025 reached 1.43 trillion catties, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The autumn grain purchase volume has exceeded 200 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 32 million tons [2] - As of December 28, 2025, the total box office of China's movie New Year's Eve season has exceeded 5 billion yuan, reaching a new high in the same period in the past eight years [2] - Chongqing has added 160 million yuan of automobile replacement and renewal subsidy funds, with a total subsidy application amount of 185 million yuan, and the application period is from December 27, 2025, to January 10, 2026 [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes fell slightly. The stock index fluctuated widely and rose in the previous trading session. The non - ferrous metal sector led the rise, while the electronics sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.18 trillion yuan [2] - On December 25, the margin trading balance increased by 3.776 billion yuan to 2528.4993 billion yuan [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission's statement may lead to supply - side reform in raw material industries, which may push up commodity prices and drive up resource - based stocks [2] - The RMB has appreciated against the US dollar since December, and overseas funds are expected to flow back with the establishment of the RMB appreciation expectation [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the coal industry, specifically regarding the supply of raw coal in the first quarter of 2026 and its implications for investment opportunities. Key Points and Arguments - Since 2021, to ensure the supply of electricity coal, there has been an increase in raw coal production in four out of the last five years during the first quarter, contrasting with a decline during the supply-side reform period from 2016 to 2020 [1][3] - In Q1 2021, an unexpected increase in production was driven by a cold winter and heightened domestic and international demand, leading major production areas to increase load and work multiple shifts to meet demand [1][3] - The implementation of overproduction checks in July 2025 and the central economic work conference's emphasis on stabilizing prices and addressing excessive competition suggest that the elasticity of raw coal supply will be limited in Q1 2026, with a modest year-on-year increase expected [1][4] - Data from CCTD indicates that capacity utilization rates in January are typically lower than in December, suggesting that Q4 is usually the peak of the year, making it difficult to maintain high levels into Q1 [1][5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - **Growth and Defensive Stocks**: Yanzhou Coal Mining, Lu'an Chemical, and Electric Power Investment, which are expected to have reasonable valuations and high dividends even at coal prices between 700-750 RMB/ton [1][6] - **Stable Dividend Stocks**: China Coal, Shanxi Coal, and Shenhua, which are seeing gradual improvements in dividend value [1][6] - If demand exceeds expectations, low-valuation stocks with limited shares and low profit margins such as Huayang, Jinkong, Lu'an, and Pingmei are also worth considering, especially in a low-price off-season with anticipated supply-demand improvements [2][6] Additional Important Insights - The policy environment is identified as a critical factor influencing the year-on-year changes in raw coal production, rather than seasonal patterns [3][4] - The potential for unexpected demand surges remains a consideration, as seen in previous years, but current policies are expected to constrain supply growth [3][4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **coking coal industry** in China, particularly regarding supply and demand dynamics for 2025 and projections for 2026 [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments Coking Coal Supply and Demand - In 2025, China's coking coal imports decreased by **5.6% year-on-year**, with Mongolia and Russia accounting for nearly **80%** of the imports. The import structure shifted, with the proportion of anthracite, weathered coal, and thermal coal increasing, while coking coal's share dropped to **62%-65%** [1][4]. - The steel industry maintained high pig iron production levels, benefiting from increased exports of steel and steel billets, although profit margins for steel mills were low, below **36%** [1][5]. - The coking coal market is characterized by high volatility due to a significant proportion of independent coking plants, which are mostly private enterprises sensitive to price changes. The pricing mechanism is transitioning from quarterly to monthly [1][6]. Market Predictions for 2026 - Limited growth in coking coal production is expected in 2026, with a decline in steel industry demand leading to reduced coking coal consumption. The closure of non-mining washing plants may support commodity coal supply, with coking coal prices expected to rise slightly but with moderated volatility [1][10]. - The peak of steel consumption has passed, and a gradual decline is anticipated. Carbon emission trading will phase out outdated capacity and increase production costs, potentially raising the proportion of high-quality products and overall profits [1][12]. - Mongolia plans to increase coking coal exports to China, which could impact domestic supply-demand balance and increase volatility in the futures market. Monitoring changes in Mongolia's export levels is crucial [1][13]. Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The overall performance of the coking coal market in 2025 experienced a V-shaped recovery, with significant price drops in the first half due to oversupply, particularly from Shanxi province. However, a market reversal began in July, influenced by policy changes [2][3]. - The coking coal market's volatility is attributed to the high proportion of independent coking plants and their sensitivity to price adjustments. The transition to monthly pricing aims to better reflect market changes [1][6]. Cost and Production Insights - Production costs for coking coal vary by region, with costs in Henan, Hebei, and Anhui around **1,000-1,200 RMB/ton**, while some private enterprises in Shanxi have costs as low as **600-700 RMB/ton** [21]. - Despite nearing breakeven points, coking coal enterprises have not yet reported losses, and thus, there are no current reasons for production halts [20]. Inventory and Supply Chain Management - Steel mills and coking plants typically maintain a coal inventory of around **10 days**, with extreme cases dropping to as low as **3 days**, which poses operational risks [19]. - Coal production is generally stable throughout the year, with minor seasonal fluctuations influenced by market conditions rather than self-adjustments [15]. Environmental and Regulatory Impact - Environmental regulations have led to significant changes in inventory management practices, with large state-owned enterprises eliminating bulk storage and implementing measures to comply with environmental standards [25]. Additional Important Insights - The steel industry's seasonal demand patterns have become less pronounced, with traditional peak seasons showing reduced significance due to declining construction activity [15]. - The impact of Mongolian coking coal on the domestic market is notable, as it is priced lower than domestic coal, influencing futures market volatility and local pricing dynamics [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, focusing on the coking coal industry and its interrelations with the steel sector and market dynamics.

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals continue to show strong performance, supported by favorable economic indicators and market conditions [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The 2026 National People's Congress and the Chinese financial work conference emphasized the continuation of a proactive fiscal policy, focusing on expanding fiscal spending and optimizing government bond tools [1]. - In November, China's industrial profits fell by 13.1% year-on-year, while high-tech manufacturing profits accelerated [1]. - The U.S. November CPI was reported at 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, indicating a downward trend that may provide room for interest rate cuts [2][18]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Spot silver prices surged, reaching new historical highs, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [2][18]. - The weak employment data in the U.S. supports the Fed's potential for further rate cuts, which is expected to boost liquidity and positively impact precious metal prices [2][18]. - Long-term support for precious metals remains strong due to factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar's credibility and central bank gold purchases [2][18]. Group 3: Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with significant fluctuations in the previous trading day, particularly in the metals sector [3][11]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend, supported by policy backing, capital protection, and industrial drivers [3][11]. - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the U.S. dollar, with expectations of further inflows of overseas capital, which may lead to a revaluation of Chinese assets [3][11]. Group 4: Copper Market - Copper prices rose over 2%, reaching new historical highs, amid tight supply conditions and fluctuating smelting profits [4][19]. - The global copper supply-demand outlook is shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions [4][19]. - Key indicators such as electricity investment and automotive production are showing positive growth, while real estate remains weak [4][19]. Group 5: Other Commodities - The domestic coal-to-methanol production rate is at 85.66%, with a slight decrease in operational load due to reduced demand from MTO enterprises [14]. - The natural rubber market is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints from weather conditions in production areas [15]. - The lithium carbonate market continues to see strong demand, with production and inventory levels indicating a robust outlook despite potential supply increases in the future [22].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1]. Core Views - The aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation due to weak demand, while macroeconomic conditions remain supportive for aluminum prices [10]. - The report emphasizes the need for mergers and acquisitions among alumina companies to enhance competitiveness amid high inventory levels [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of December 26, the average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 22,060.0 CNY/ton, up 220.0 CNY/ton week-on-week, and up 2,210.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [20]. - The LME three-month aluminum closing price was 2,956.5 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 220.0 CNY/ton [14]. 2. Production - In November 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.637 million tons, a decrease of 106,000 tons month-on-month and a decrease of 66,000 tons year-on-year [49]. - The production of alumina in November 2025 was 7.439 million tons, down 346,000 tons month-on-month but up 152,000 tons year-on-year [49]. 3. Inventory - As of December 25, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was recorded at 617,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons week-on-week [7]. - The report notes that the inventory of bauxite at alumina plants increased to 55.411 million tons, indicating a high inventory level despite tight domestic supply [8]. 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK) is rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 2.25 CNY for 2024, 2.54 CNY for 2025, and 2.77 CNY for 2026 [5]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is also rated "Buy" with an expected EPS of 0.96 CNY for 2024, 1.00 CNY for 2025, and 1.27 CNY for 2026 [5]. - Other companies such as Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ), China Aluminum (601600.SH), and Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ) are similarly rated "Buy" with positive earnings forecasts [5].