特朗普宣布达成贸易协议！本周利率决议落地！更多主流品种如何分析？TTPS交易学长正在直播，立 即观看！ 相关链接 黄金行情讲解中 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent trade agreements between the US and Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, highlighting the reduction of tariffs and Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in key industries [51][52] - The article notes that developed markets have generally seen an increase, with the Nikkei 225 rising by 4.1% and the S&P 500 by 1.5% [4][80] - The article mentions the fluctuations in commodity prices, with WTI crude oil decreasing by 3.2% to $65.2 per barrel, while coking coal prices surged by 36.0% to 1259 yuan per ton [37][38] Group 2 - The article reports that the US Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5 in July, below the expected 52.7, indicating ongoing disruptions in US industrial production due to tariffs [66][81] - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates during its July meeting, aligning with market expectations as inflation returned to target levels [69][81] - The article highlights the mixed performance of emerging market 10-year government bond yields, with Turkey's yield rising significantly by 177.5 basis points to 31.6% [20]

贵金属周报 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年7月28日 南华期货贵金属周报：倒V反转 剧烈波动 【盘面回顾】上周贵金属市场整体冲高回落，呈现倒V走势。COMEX黄金非商业多头持仓在截至7月22日当 周激增，以及美国黄金白银ETF的大量流入，引发价格在前半周激涨，其背景可能是受美国贸易关税谈判于8 月1日截止日前的不确定性，以及美联储方面，政府对美联储干预促使美联储独立性原则下的鹰向鸽转变预 期，此外周初日本执政联盟在参议院选举中遭遇历史性失败。 然而周三起盘面逆转，贵金属掉头直下。一方 面，美国关税贸易战趋缓提升市场风险偏好，提振美股走高并短期压制贵金属价格，特朗普通过社交媒体宣 布美国与日本达成贸易协议，对日关税税率为15%及日本5500亿美元对美投资；媒体称欧美接近达成协议、 美将对欧盟征15%关税。 另一方面，国内反内卷政策下，大宗商品与股市普涨，引发资金从传统避险资金流 出，国内黄金ETF于上周持续流出。 接下来市场焦点聚焦于周四美联储FOMC会议，以及周内周四美7月PCE 数据、周五美非农就业报告。 【资金与库存】长线基金持仓看， ...

Key Points Summary 1. This Week's Key Focus - From July 27th to 30th, Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden [2][3] - On July 30th at 20:30, the US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of the US Q2 GDP [2][10] - On July 31st at 02:00, the Fed will announce its interest - rate decision, expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged [2][13] - On July 31st at 09:30, China will release July's official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI [2][14] - On July 31st at 20:30, the US will release the June PCE price index [2][18] - On August 1st at 20:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the July non - farm payrolls report [2][23] 2. This Week's Hotspot Preview July 28th - The third round of China - US economic and trade talks is held. The outcome may impact relevant futures prices, with August 12th being the deadline for the suspension of additional tariffs [3] July 29th - The US Conference Board will release the July consumer confidence index at 22:00. An index higher than the previous value (expected 95.9, previous 93) will help non - ferrous metal futures rise but suppress gold and silver futures [4] July 30th - Germany will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 16:00. An expected quarter - on - quarter rate of - 0.1% (previous 0.4%) may slightly suppress non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but help gold and silver futures [6] - The Eurozone will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 17:00. Expected quarter - on - quarter rate of 0% (previous 0.6%) and year - on - year rate of 1.2% (previous 1.5%) may have a similar impact as Germany's data [7] - The Eurozone will release July's economic and industrial景气指数 at 17:00, with expected values of 94.8 (previous 94) and - 11 (previous - 12) respectively [8] - The US ADP will release the change in July ADP employment at 20:15. An expected increase of 75,000 (previous - 33,000) will help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [9] - The US will release the initial value of Q2 GDP at 20:30. An expected annualized quarter - on - quarter rate of 2.5% (previous - 0.5%) will have a similar impact as the ADP employment data [10] - The Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision and monetary policy report at 21:45, expected to keep the overnight lending rate at 2.75% [11] - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending July 25th at 22:30. A continued decline (previous 3.169 million barrels) will help crude oil and related commodity futures [12] July 31st - The Fed will announce its interest - rate decision at 02:00, and Fed Chair Powell will hold a press conference at 02:30. Focus on the press - conference content and its impact on the futures market [13] - China will release July's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI at 09:30, with expected values of 49.7 (same as previous) and 50.5 (same as previous) respectively [14] - The Bank of Japan will announce its interest - rate decision and outlook report at 11:00, and Governor Ueda will hold a press conference at 14:30, expected to keep the benchmark rate at 0.5% [15] - The Eurozone will release the June unemployment rate at 17:00, expected to be 6.3% (same as previous) [16] - The US will release June's personal spending and income at 20:30. Expected monthly rates of 0.4% (previous - 0.1%) for personal consumption expenditure and 0.2% (previous - 0.4%) for personal income may suppress gold and silver futures but help industrial futures other than gold and silver [17] - The US will release the June PCE price index at 20:30, with expected annual rates of 2.5% (previous 2.3%) for PCE and 2.7% (same as previous) for core PCE [18] - The US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26th at 20:30. An expected number of 215,000 (previous 217,000) may suppress gold and silver futures but help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures [19] August 1st - China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for July will be released at 9:45. An expected value of 50.5 (previous 50.4) slightly lower than the previous value may slightly suppress industrial product futures and stock index futures but help treasury bond futures [20] - The Eurozone will release the July CPI initial value at 17:00. Expected annual rates of 1.9% (previous 2.0%) for the harmonized CPI and 2.3% (previous 2.4%) for the core harmonized CPI [22] - The US will release the July non - farm payrolls report at 20:30. Expected seasonally - adjusted new non - farm jobs of 110,000 (previous 147,000), an unemployment rate of 4.2% (previous 4.1%), and an average hourly wage annual rate of 3.8% (previous 3.7%). Fewer new jobs than the previous value will help gold and silver futures but suppress other commodity futures [23] - The US ISM will release the July manufacturing PMI at 22:00. An expected value of 49.5 (previous 49) slightly higher than the previous value will slightly help non - ferrous metal, crude oil, and related commodity futures but suppress gold and silver futures [24]

Group 1 - China will hold a political bureau meeting at the end of July to determine the policy tone for the second half of the year [2] - The official manufacturing PMI for July will be released on July 31, with June's PMI at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2] - A total of 54 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.385 billion shares, with a total market value of 102.679 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] Group 2 - Three new stocks will be issued in the A-share market next week, including Tianfu Long on the Shanghai main board, Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Guangdong Jianke on the ChiNext [3] - Over 40% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings next week, with significant attention on tech stocks such as Apple, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Qualcomm, which may lead to market volatility [4]

Group 1 - China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30 in Sweden [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report on July 31, with June's manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The new round of retail fuel price adjustments will take effect on July 29, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices down by 225 yuan and 215 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year, respectively [1] Group 2 - A total of 54 companies will have their restricted shares unlocked next week, amounting to 3.385 billion shares with a total market value of 102.679 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [2] - Three new stocks will be issued next week, including Tianfu Long on the Shanghai main board, Youli Intelligent on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and Guangdong Jianke on the ChiNext [2] - Major US tech companies, including Microsoft and Meta, will report their latest earnings on July 30, while Apple and Amazon will do so on July 31 [2]

Economic Performance - The U.S. stock market saw gains with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46% for the week [1] - European stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK FTSE 100 up 1.43%, while Germany's DAX 30 fell 0.30% and France's CAC 40 rose 0.15% [1] - The Eurozone is set to release Q2 GDP data, which will provide insights into the impact of tariff uncertainties on the economy [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its upcoming meeting [3] - Recent inflation data indicates a rise, suggesting a strong economy, which may influence future rate decisions [3][4] - Market expectations are leaning towards a potential rate cut in October, with the job market and economic indicators being closely monitored [4] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, which may serve as a template for negotiations with the EU, particularly regarding a 15% tariff rate [3] - The deadline for the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" is August 1, raising concerns about potential market volatility depending on the outcome of trade negotiations [3][4] Corporate Earnings - The earnings season is gaining momentum, with major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta set to report their results [5] - Other notable companies to watch include Procter & Gamble, VISA, and UnitedHealth [5] Commodity Prices - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with WTI crude down 1.35% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.21% to $68.44 per barrel [6] - Gold prices fell by 0.57%, closing at $3334.00 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and positive trade negotiation signals [6][7] Economic Indicators - Key economic data releases this week include the U.S. Q2 GDP initial estimate, PCE inflation data, and the July non-farm payroll report [4][5] - The UK is set to release various economic indicators, including the nationwide house price index and consumer credit data, which may provide insights into future economic trends [8]

Economic Indicators - The July PMI data will be released on July 31, with June's manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on July 31, with expectations to maintain a wait-and-see approach in July, potentially starting rate cuts in September, as current economic indicators do not show signs of a slowdown or significant inflation risk [4][5]. Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation will come into effect on August 1, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority emphasizing the need for careful implementation to prevent market speculation and financial risks [6]. Corporate Earnings - Major tech companies including Microsoft and Meta will report their earnings on July 30, while Apple and Amazon will follow on July 31. Boeing is set to disclose its performance on July 29 [7]. Stock Market Activity - Over 1,000 billion yuan worth of restricted shares will be unlocked from July 28 to August 1, totaling 3.385 billion shares across 54 companies, with a peak on July 28 when 26 companies will unlock shares worth 454.26 billion yuan [9][10]. New Stock Offerings - Three new stocks will be available for subscription next week: Tianfulong on July 28, Youli Intelligent on July 29, and Guangdong Jianke on August 1 [12][13].

Group 1 - International gold is currently trading around $3359.85 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.24% [1] - The highest price reached was $3373.25 per ounce, while the lowest was $3357.70 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend for gold [1] - Gold prices have been suppressed below the $3400 mark for two consecutive trading days, with buyers entering around $3350 [5] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.416%, contributing to an increase in the real yield, which reached 2.046% [3] - The U.S. dollar index strengthened, closing up 0.28% at 97.48 [3] - The European Central Bank decided to maintain key interest rates, indicating a high threshold for any potential rate cuts in September [3] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting, with a 96% probability for no change [3] - Gold prices are expected to remain in a consolidation phase ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, with potential resistance at $3400 and targets at $3438 and $3452 [5] - A drop below $3350 could challenge the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, located at $3347 and $3341 respectively [5]

Group 1 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited the Fed in nearly 20 years, making him the fourth president to do so [2] - The visit coincides with rising criticism regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project, suggesting Trump's interest may relate to his background in real estate development [2] - Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates from the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% to 1% to alleviate fiscal pressure [2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with only about a 60% chance of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Recent data shows a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient U.S. labor market, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in over a year, citing that current inflation has reached the mid-term target of 2% [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of downside risks to economic growth, particularly due to escalating global trade tensions [5] - There are expectations that the ECB may consider a rate cut in September, with traders anticipating at least one more cut this year [5]