2022年爆发的俄乌冲突，像一颗投向平静水面的巨石，掀起了整个欧洲的震荡。不断飙升的能源价格、 动荡不安的市场、民众的不满情绪……这些问题在欧洲各国层层叠加，像一锅缓缓沸腾的开水。而更值 得深思的是，为什么欧洲各国，尤其是德国、波兰这样的关键国家，宁愿冒着经济衰退和社会动荡的风 险，也要坚持"死撑"乌克兰？这背后的逻辑到底是什么？欧洲真的是在为所谓的"高尚理想"埋单吗？这 些问题引发了无数争议，但鲜有人能给出直击本质的答案。 让我们先看一组数据：自俄乌冲突爆发以来，欧洲各国对乌克兰的援助总额已突破千亿欧元。但欧洲自 身的经济形势却岌岌可危——2022年，德国的通货膨胀率飙升至40年来的最高点，波兰的农业出口因战 争受阻损失惨重。而普通欧洲人更是切身感受到生活成本的压迫：天然气账单翻倍、超市里的物价不断 刷新纪录。欧洲各国真的愿意为乌克兰两肋插刀吗？还是说这背后另有隐情？ 欧洲各国的态度并非铁板一块。表面上欧洲的对外声明总是高举"自由"、"民主"的大旗，强调支持乌克 兰是为了维护所谓的"国际秩序"。但在私下里，各国领导人的算盘打得比谁都精明。德国有工厂，波兰 有农田，斯洛伐克有资源，谁都明白，如果现在不全力支持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - This week, the asphalt fundamentals showed characteristics of increasing supply and weak demand. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in weekly output and operating rate, while the demand side had a slight increase in shipment volume. The factory inventory decreased slightly, ending the two - week inventory accumulation trend, indicating an increase in traders' willingness to purchase. However, the social inventory increased, and the current asphalt social inventory remains at a high level, with demand awaiting further improvement. - The crude oil market currently lacks obvious drivers, and short - term fluctuations are dominated by news. The EU's sanctions on Russia and the reduction of the price cap on Russian oil are bullish in the short - term sentiment, but have limited impact in the medium - to - long - term. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate strongly. - Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of asphalt is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes and pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction. It is also suggested to focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [7][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Abstract - Market focus includes Trump's "major statement" on Russia, OPEC maintaining the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast, and IEA raising the 2025 global crude oil supply growth forecast while lowering the demand growth forecast [6]. - Key data: As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 1 percentage point from the previous statistical period. As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week; the social inventory of domestic asphalt was 1.319 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish factors for asphalt include marginal improvement in supply - demand and low inventory levels; bearish factors include a cease - fire agreement between Israel and other parties and high supply levels [10]. 3.3 Macro Analysis - **Tariff negotiations**: The progress of US tariff negotiations is slow and uncertain. Trump said the US is close to reaching a trade agreement with India and may reach an agreement with Europe, but it's too early to say about Canada. The US - Japan tariff negotiation has no progress, and the US may maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods. The EU - US tariff negotiation has major differences, with core issues such as automobile and agricultural tariffs remaining unresolved [11]. - **Firing Powell incident**: Trump hopes that Fed Chairman Powell will resign, which may trigger investors' doubts about the Fed's independence and lead to the selling of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds [12]. - **Fed's "Beige Book"**: The overall sentiment is pessimistic. All 12 regions in the US reported price increases, and enterprises generally felt the cost pressure related to tariffs. The economic outlook is "neutral to slightly pessimistic", and it is speculated that the Fed will continue to "stand still" [12]. - **OPEC and IEA monthly reports**: OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast at 1.29 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. It also maintained the economic growth forecasts for this year and next year. IEA raised the 2025 global oil supply growth forecast from 1.8 million barrels per day to 2.1 million barrels per day and lowered the 2025 average oil demand growth forecast from 720,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day [13]. 3.4 Data Analysis - **Supply**: As of July 18, the weekly output of domestic asphalt was 572,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous week. As of July 16, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 32.8%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous statistical period, with significant increases in South China and Shandong. The increase in refinery operating rate was due to a decrease in maintenance plans [14][22]. - **Demand**: As of July 18, the weekly shipment volume of domestic asphalt was 414,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly shipment volume rebounded and was at a high level this year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 14.55%, up 0.17 percentage points from the previous week [25][28]. - **Import and export**: In May, domestic asphalt imports were 397,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,100 tons (41.3% increase), and a year - on - year decrease of 61,300 tons (13.37% decrease). The cumulative imports from January to April were 1.3492 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.03%. In May, domestic asphalt exports were 55,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,300 tons. The cumulative exports from January to April were 249,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 59.62% [37][44]. - **Inventory**: As of July 18, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 761,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,600 tons, with a large decrease in Shandong. The social inventory was 1.319 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons. Except for the northwest region, there was a slight inventory increase in other regions [53][60]. - **Spread**: As of July 18, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 524.1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46.3 yuan/ton. As of July 16, the asphalt - to - crude - oil ratio was 55.41, and as of July 17, the asphalt basis was 107 yuan/ton. The asphalt cracking spread rebounded this week, mainly due to the weak operation of crude oil prices [67]. 4.后市研判 - The asphalt supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the futures price mainly fluctuates around crude oil. It is recommended to track geopolitical changes, pay attention to the matching degree between refinery production scheduling and the progress of terminal project construction, and focus on the BU2509 contract in the range of 3,580 - 3,750 yuan/ton [69].

Core Viewpoint - Pakistan has awarded the development rights of the Reko Diq copper-gold mine to Barrick Gold of Canada, raising questions about its preference for Western partnerships over Chinese companies amid China's urgent need for copper resources [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Bilateral Relations - Since establishing diplomatic relations in 1951, China and Pakistan have maintained a strong friendship, with China providing support in various sectors including aerospace, healthcare, and energy [3]. - China has also offered significant military assistance to Pakistan, enhancing its defense capabilities against threats from India [3]. Group 2: Economic Considerations - Pakistan possesses abundant natural resources, including coal, oil, and copper, but has faced challenges in resource development due to technical limitations and geopolitical conflicts [3]. - Canada has committed to investing $7 billion, along with an additional $1 billion for railway construction connecting the mine to Gwadar Port, which helps alleviate Pakistan's cash flow crisis and positions its copper production among the top five globally [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Pakistan's ties with Canada are strengthened by shared language and legal systems as both are part of the Commonwealth, and their relationship with the West has been improving [5]. - The collaboration with Canada allows Pakistan to access European markets for its resources, a goal that is currently difficult for China to achieve [5]. Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Pakistan maintains a neutral stance in great power competition, balancing support from China while also engaging with Western partners to mitigate sanctions pressure [7]. - The decision to partner with Canada reflects Pakistan's focus on immediate economic benefits, risk diversification, and the need to repair international relations, emphasizing that national interests remain paramount in international friendships [7].

G20财长和央行行长公报：全球挑战包括地缘政治和贸易紧张局势，G20致力于国际政策合作。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong U.S. economic data has put short-term pressure on gold prices, while geopolitical tensions and tariff risks continue to provide support for the gold market [1][2][4]. Economic Data Impact - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, with core retail sales rising by 0.5%, indicating a moderate recovery in consumer spending [2]. - Initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000, the lowest level in three months, suggesting a stable labor market that supports consumer spending [2]. Federal Reserve Policy Divergence - There is a notable split within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policy, with some members advocating for maintaining restrictive policies to curb inflation, while others support rate cuts [3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September is currently at 54%, with a 30% chance for action in July [3]. Trade Risks and Market Reactions - The Trump administration is in urgent negotiations with Japan regarding a 25% tariff, with a deadline of August 1 for an agreement [4]. - A significant increase of 44% in Swiss gold exports in June indicates that some institutions are still accumulating physical gold as a hedge against potential policy and market risks [4]. Future Outlook for Gold Prices - Gold prices are currently under pressure from macroeconomic factors, but the outlook for the second half of the year will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the actual implementation of Trump's trade policies [4][5]. - Technically, gold prices remain in a long-term uptrend, with a critical support level at $3,300 per ounce, and potential resistance levels at $3,350 and $3,380 per ounce [5].

短短几天，叙利亚南部的苏韦达省从一场部落间的抢劫报复，演变成席卷全省的血腥冲突。德鲁兹人与贝都因人的枪声尚未停歇，叙利亚新政府的安全部 队却调转枪口，与贝都因民兵联手，将屠刀挥向德鲁兹社区。社交媒体上流传的血腥画面，控诉着这场发生在眼皮底下的悲剧。 就在国际社会几近沉默，对西方支持的叙利亚新政府屠杀行为袖手旁观之际，一个意想不到的角色出手了——以色列战机呼啸而至，空袭大马士革军事目 标，意图切断叙政府军增援苏韦达的通道。这个在加沙被描绘成"恶魔"的国家，此刻竟成了德鲁兹人眼中唯一的"保护者"。 为何叙利亚政府要对自己宣称要保护的少数族群痛下杀手？为何以色列会罕见地为保护邻国少数派而跨境干预？这戏剧性的一幕，瞬间牵动了中东地缘政 治最敏感的神经，更将以色列推上了一个充满讽刺与悖论的"道德高地"。 争夺再起 2025年7月11日，一位德鲁兹商人在经过叙利亚苏韦达省的一个检查站附近时遭到贝都因部落人员的袭击和抢劫。作为报复，德鲁兹武装人员"扣留"了数 名贝都因部落人员。随后，双方冲突升级，并从苏韦达省东部穆卡瓦斯地区蔓延至苏韦达省西部和北部地区，导致激烈交火，造成大量人员伤亡。 以朱拉尼为代表的叙利亚新政府迅速宣布 ...

而在福赛斯的书中，向维森塔尔透露这些秘情的人，是一个不可靠的证人，他也有自己的利益诉求：想要攫取纳 粹党徒存在瑞士银行里的大笔财富。福赛斯看到那篇虚虚实实的报道，从中了解到维森塔尔和他的虚虚实实的行 动理由后，十分坚定地编成了一个确凿的故事，他给"敖德萨"组织加上了一个政治目标：推翻新生不久的犹太国 家以色列，并且让彼得·米勒入手调查后，很快遭到追杀。 福赛斯写得很快。《豺狼的日子》只写了35天就完成了，一炮而红之后，出版商敦促着福赛斯趁热打铁。那个年 头的出版业正是一台兴旺运转的机器，福赛斯这样眼疾手快、脑筋灵活的作者，不成名都说不过去。他在新闻方 面的直觉，以及叙述故事的能力，在《敖德萨档案》里表现得淋漓尽致。他把故事的开端设定在了肯尼迪遇刺之 后，有点距离感，但又很真实，那些悬疑的片段细致入微，而且极为专业。比如说，米勒躲过了一次汽车炸弹暗 杀，原因是他驾驶的那辆捷豹XK150的悬挂系统很紧，刚好卡住了炸弹，使它失效。福赛斯写来，就好像他真的 把炸药安装在那个型号的车上，确认它的确不会爆炸一样。 《豺狼的日子》 小说体现了福赛斯的全知全能，他懂情报工作，懂媒体，懂政治格局的"前世今生"，懂军事国防，懂航 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around the emergence and significance of stablecoins in the global financial landscape, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts and the competition between major powers like the US and China [2][4][65] - Stablecoins are defined as cryptocurrencies that are pegged to fiat currencies or assets, combining the convenience of digital assets with the stability of traditional currencies, with a market size that has grown from under $100 million in 2014 to over $250 billion today [24][25] - The article highlights the role of stablecoins in facilitating rapid global transactions without traditional banking systems, significantly enhancing payment efficiency and reducing cross-border costs [25][26] Group 2 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the decline of traditional power dynamics and the rise of new economic strategies, particularly in the context of the US-China rivalry [5][18][48] - The article discusses how the US and China are both integrating stablecoins into their national financial strategies, with implications for global monetary systems and the distribution of financial power [28][65] - The potential of stablecoins to disrupt the existing dollar-centric financial system is emphasized, as they offer alternatives to traditional payment systems like SWIFT, especially in the context of geopolitical tensions [36][37][66] Group 3 - The article outlines three core attributes of money that stablecoins aim to fulfill: price stability, a medium for global payments, and a transitional role towards central bank digital currencies [29][30] - It also discusses the historical context of currency evolution and how stablecoins represent a new chapter in the ongoing struggle for monetary authority and influence [58][60][62] - The narrative suggests that the competition for stablecoin dominance is not just about financial transactions but also about redefining global economic power structures [65][66]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's fundamentals are at odds with market sentiment, but its valuation is at a historical low, indicating significant investment value. The current stock is considered a buy from a direct equity investment perspective [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - ASML's stock price rebounded over 40% from its low, but fell 9% on the day of the Q2 2025 earnings announcement despite exceeding expectations in sales, net profit, and net bookings [5]. - The decline was attributed to the CEO's cautious outlook on 2026 growth due to rising macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, despite strong fundamentals in the AI customer base [5]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was €7.7 billion, with a net income margin of 29.8% and earnings per share of €5.90 [9]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - ASML holds a unique position in a high-growth market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 9% over the next few years [7]. - The revenue structure includes EUV and DUV lithography machines, accounting for 48% and 43% of total revenue, respectively, with EUV being a unique offering that provides significant pricing power [7]. - The company has demonstrated a robust ability to convert revenue into profit, with a gross margin of 53.7% and an operating margin of 34.6% [9]. Group 3: Financial Health and Shareholder Returns - ASML's balance sheet is healthy, with net cash reserves of $6.3 billion and a current dividend yield of 1.3%, indicating substantial room for dividend growth [10]. - The company has been actively repurchasing shares, with a buyback of €1.4 billion in the latest quarter, contributing to earnings per share growth [11]. - R&D spending reached €1.2 billion in the latest quarter, representing 15.6% of sales, ensuring the maintenance of its technological leadership [11]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Outlook - ASML's current trailing P/E ratio is approximately 27, which is at a historical low, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [12]. - The expected annual revenue growth rate from 2025 to 2030 is projected to be between 7% and 13%, with earnings per share growth potentially reaching 11% to 22% [14]. - Scenario analysis indicates that if earnings per share reach $60.13 by 2030, the stock price could rise to $1,683, yielding a compound annual return of nearly 18% [15].