上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（10月23日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计87015千克，今日仓单较 上一日持平。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡，周四（10月23日）黄金期货开盘价927.66元/克，截至目前最高948.00元/克， 最低923.62元/克。截止发稿报942.28元/克，跌幅0.77%，成交量为555735手，持仓为189131手，日持仓 减少3672手。 上海期货交易所黄金期货仓单日报(单位：千克) | 上期所指定交割金库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 87015 | 0 | 美国宣布对俄罗斯两家最大的石油公司实施制裁，与此同时，欧盟也计划禁止进口俄罗斯液化天然气。 此外，有消息称美国正考虑限制对华出口含有或使用美国软件制造的产品。这些举措加剧了地缘紧张局 势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices, following a two-month surge, indicates a market adjustment phase, with potential for further fluctuations in the coming months [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a historic drop of over 5%, ending a nine-week streak of increases, with a total decline of nearly 9% over two days [2]. - The current market sentiment regarding gold prices is highly divided, with some experts shifting from bullish to bearish stances, citing concerns over a potential bubble [2]. Group 2: Future Projections - The recent downturn is viewed as a technical adjustment due to the rapid increase in gold prices over the past two years, which may extend the duration and magnitude of the correction [3]. - The anticipated adjustment could see gold prices drop by 15-20%, potentially reaching between $3,500 and $3,700 per ounce, with a correction period of 5-6 months [3]. - Despite the expected adjustments, there remains a possibility for gold prices to maintain strength and potentially reach new historical highs after the correction [3]. Group 3: Gold Stocks Outlook - Gold stocks are expected to benefit from the long-term high prices of gold, leading to significant growth in future net profits and cash flows for companies involved in gold production [3]. - The performance of gold stocks is projected to surpass that of gold prices, as they reflect the discounted value of future cash flows [3].

受制裁及地缘政治消息影响，俄罗斯MOEX和RTS指数盘初均下跌3.4%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The sanctions imposed by the US on Russian oil companies have increased trade barriers, forming a bullish driver for oil prices. However, whether it will lead to a substantial reduction in Russian oil exports is uncertain, and the geopolitical factor only delays the downward trend of oil prices. The short - term price support is expected to be relatively stable, and the SC - Brent spread is expected to widen [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics - On October 22, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil closed up 4.36% and 3.13% respectively, and on October 23, SC crude oil opened up 3.5% in the morning [3] Reasons for the Rise - On October 22, the US Treasury added Rosneft and Lukoil to the sanctions list. In 2024, these two companies' crude oil production accounted for 46% of Russia's total production, which led to increased trade barriers and a bullish driver for oil prices. Trump also canceled the meeting with Putin and said it was time to sanction Russia [4] Fundamental Situation - Geopolitical factors dominate the short - term market. After the sanctions on Gazprom Neft in January 2025 and Rosneft and Lukoil on October 22, the top four Russian oil companies are all on the US sanctions list, accounting for 77% of Russia's 2024 crude oil production. The US Treasury's exemption for normal transactions ends on November 21. Although Russian oil exports have been relatively stable after multiple sanctions, the potential impact of this new round of sanctions is difficult to quantify [5] Market Outlook - Currently, the expectation of a reduction in Russian oil supply is difficult to disprove, and short - term price support is expected to be stable. Even if there is a reduction of hundreds of thousands of barrels in Russian oil exports, it is difficult to reverse the global crude oil supply surplus. The SC - Brent spread is expected to widen due to the enhanced substitution effect of Middle Eastern crude oil [6]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected phone call from Putin during a White House summit shifted the focus from the Ukraine situation, revealing a potential high-level strategic coordination between the US and Russia, which undermines the post-World War II multilateral international order [4][12][16] Group 1: US-Russia Relations - Trump's aggressive stance towards Ukraine, including pressuring Zelensky to accept Russia's ceasefire framework, indicates a significant policy reversal [4][6] - The meeting atmosphere was tense, with Trump dismissing traditional diplomatic decorum and emphasizing Russia's strong economic performance following a lengthy conversation with Putin [6][8] - The proposed ceasefire terms from Russia involve Ukraine relinquishing control of the Donbas region, which reflects a unilateral imposition of humiliating conditions on Ukraine [6][10] Group 2: Ukraine's Position - Zelensky entered the summit with hopes for military support, particularly the provision of Tomahawk missiles, but left disappointed as Trump retracted previous commitments [7][8] - The pressure from Trump to consider Russia's conditions places Ukraine in a politically precarious situation, facing the prospect of compromising with an aggressor [8][12] Group 3: European Allies' Response - European leaders are aware of the deteriorating situation but are adopting a pragmatic approach, initiating secret emergency plans due to deep-seated security anxieties [12][13] - The coordination between the US and Russia is eroding trust within NATO, prompting discussions among European leaders about establishing an independent security framework [12][14] Group 4: Implications for China - The shifting geopolitical landscape poses unprecedented risks for China's energy and raw material transportation, as it is a key player in global supply chains [12][13] - Potential agreements between the US and Russia could lead to a bifurcated international energy market, impacting China's energy import stability and transportation security [13][14] - China is proactively diversifying its energy imports and enhancing its strategic reserves to mitigate risks from potential geopolitical conflicts [13][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating All the varieties in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4][6][7] Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple energy and chemical commodities, including their price movements, market supply - demand situations, and influencing factors. Most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short - term due to various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand changes, and cost fluctuations [1][2][4]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI December contract rose $1.26 to $58.50/barrel (2.18% increase), Brent December contract rose $1.27 to $62.59/barrel (2.07% increase), and SC2512 rose 7.3 yuan/barrel to 449.1 yuan/barrel (1.65% increase). US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's remarks on Russia and US - India trade progress, may drive up short - term price volatility [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts FU2601 and LU2512 rose. In September 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Asian low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to weak demand and sufficient supply [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 rose. This week, the social inventory rate decreased slightly, the refinery inventory increased slightly, and the plant operating rate increased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and high supply may suppress prices [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601, EG2601, and PX futures rose on Wednesday. Some MEG and refinery units have maintenance plans. Korean PX exports increased. Polyester supply is sufficient, and downstream demand provides some support. The polyester chain follows cost fluctuations [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts showed little change. The EU's policy implementation for small and medium - sized enterprises is postponed. Some rubber varieties have tight liquidity, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [4][6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices were reported. Domestic and overseas supply has returned to a high level, but future Iranian production growth is limited. Port sanctions may reduce future arrivals. It is recommended to consider long - methanol and short - polyolefin strategies and inter - month positive spread strategies [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices and production margins were reported. Short - term supply will remain high, and demand growth will slow down. Crude oil rebound supports prices, but the fundamentals drive is weakening, and prices are expected to oscillate [6][7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions changed little. Supply - demand pressure is high, and exports are affected by policies. The price has a need for phased repair, but the rebound is limited by high inventories [7]. Daily Data Monitoring This part provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical commodities on October 23, 2025, as well as the percentage of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. Market News - The US EIA reported that last week, US crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased. Analysts believe that oil demand is strong, and there is no sign of crude oil surplus in the US [13]. - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and Trump denied media reports about allowing Ukraine to use long - range missiles against Russia [13]. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the historical closing prices of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical commodities from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, etc. [15][16][17] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the historical basis data of main contracts for various commodities, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [30][34][35] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the historical spreads of different contracts for multiple commodities, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: It includes the historical spreads and ratios between different commodities, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads [60][62][64] - **Production Profits**: It shows the historical production profits of some commodities, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [69][70] Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in futures derivatives research and multiple awards [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and many awards [76]. - **Di Yilin**: A rubber and polyester analyst, with relevant research achievements and awards [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and financial theory application [78].

金价下周或迎变局，谨防2015年行情重演！最新应对策略解析 最近去金店换首饰，总能碰到大叔大妈围着导购打听："金价都涨到1290了，还能再买吗？""听说下周要变天，会不会像2015年那样一下子跌好多？" 不光 普通投资者慌，连身边做黄金生意的朋友都在纠结——一边是金价忽涨忽跌（10月21日单日跌1.72%，22日又反弹2.54%），一边是2015年金价暴跌45%的阴 影挥之不去。其实金价涨跌不是没规律。 金价下周可能变盘，可不是空穴来风，这3个官方发布的关键信息得盯紧： 1. 美联储政策"按兵不动"：2025年6月美联储发布的《货币政策报告》明确，维持联邦基金利率在4.25%-4.5%区间，且强调"通胀未达2%目标，政策将保持 限制性" 。这和2015年美联储开启加息周期前的"鹰派信号"如出一辙，而利率高位会抬高持有黄金的机会成本。 2. 金价波动幅度骤增：贵金属数据库显示，10月以来伦敦金单日涨跌幅多次超1.5%，10月21日最低触及1258美元，22日又冲高至1292美元，短期震荡幅度 创下3个月来新高，这种"大起大落"往往是行情转向的前兆。 3. 央行购金节奏放缓：中国人民银行2025年10月数据显示， ...

•财信期货：市场情绪趋于平稳后黄金依以逢低做多为主 •新湖期货：关注伦敦金4000美元以及伦银48美元的关键技术关口 •东吴期货：投机性多头头寸可能已过度累积，进一步放大了此次贵金属回调幅度 •盛宝银行：金银正在经历早该出现的调整，但大幅抛售后仍被低估 •MKS PAMP：经历了周二的抛售后，贵金属可能需要币预期更长的时间才能重新站稳脚跟 盛宝银行大宗商品策略主管Ole Hansen表示，黄金和白银价格正在经历早就应该出现的调整，白银的大 幅下跌突显了这两种金属之间的流动性缺口，但两者在投资组合中的持有量仍然不足，反弹背后的结构 性驱动因素仍然完好无损。汉森补充称，在经历了年内迄今的大幅上涨之后，金银这两种金属都应该进 行调整，以防止形成泡沫，但从长期来看，对2026年黄金和白银走势仍持乐观态度。"推动今年贵金属 历史性上涨的事态发展并没有消失，并且可能会继续为不再超买但投资组合中仍不足的金属提供支 撑。"汉森表示。 MKS PAMP研究与金属策略主管Nicky Shiels在其最新报告中指出，黄金市场仅用30周时间就从每盎司 3000美元反弹至4000美元，远快于之前1000美元涨幅所用的周期。在她看来，尽 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level correction, long-term strategic allocation value remains, short-term wait and see [2] - Silver: High-level adjustment, long-term bullish, short-term exit and wait and see, long-term wait for stabilization to go long [2] - Copper: High-level consolidation, long-term bullish, copper long positions to be held with caution [2] - Zinc: Rebound, long-term supply increase and demand decrease, rebound to sell high [2] - Lead: Rebound [2] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [2] - Aluminum: Relatively strong, short-term rise and then fall [2] - Nickel: Stabilize [2] - Industrial silicon: Range operation, short-term weak operation, wait and see [2] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, wait for callback to buy [2] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish, hold long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of various non-ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics, supply and demand, and geopolitics. In the short term, the prices of some varieties may fluctuate due to market sentiment and short-term events, while in the long term, the supply and demand fundamentals and macro environment will play a decisive role [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Technical selling continues to suppress the gold price, and the center of gravity of gold continues to decline [3] - **Basic Logic**: The US government shutdown, the US debt scale exceeding 38 trillion US dollars, the twists and turns of the Trump-Putin meeting. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the gold price to stop falling in the short term, and the long-term upward logic remains unchanged. Pay attention to the support of 920 for domestic gold. For silver, pay attention to the sentiment rhythm and the effectiveness of the support at 11,000. Long-term positions can continue to be held [5] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stabilizes at a high level and fluctuates narrowly [7] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper mine supply disturbances increase, domestic copper concentrate imports increase, and the electrolytic copper production in the fourth quarter is expected to shrink. The downstream is cautious due to high prices, and the domestic social inventory accumulates slightly [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold copper long positions with caution, use trailing stop-loss to protect profits. New long positions wait for the callback to stabilize. For enterprises, producers can sell hedging at high prices, and processors wait for the opportunity to buy hedging. In the long term, be bullish on copper [8] Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc fluctuates and rebounds, standing firm at the 22,000 mark [10] - **Industrial Logic**: The domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, the zinc smelter starts actively, the demand is under pressure, and the overseas LME zinc inventory has a soft squeeze risk [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term zinc short positions can gradually take profits, and wait for the rebound to go short again. In the long term, zinc is a short allocation [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price continues to rise, and alumina stabilizes at a low level [13] - **Industrial Logic**: There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts overseas. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, the inventory decreases, and the demand is relatively stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply pattern in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short term, pay attention to the start of downstream processing enterprises, and the main operating range is [20,800 - 21,500] [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price rebounds slightly, and stainless steel rebounds and then falls [17] - **Industrial Logic**: The overseas nickel ore supply disturbance weakens, the domestic pure nickel inventory accumulates, and the stainless steel inventory increases. The terminal consumption in the peak season needs further observation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption, and the main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens high and goes high, increasing positions and rising more than 1% [21] - **Industrial Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, the total inventory has declined for 9 consecutive weeks, the demand is strong, the supply is at a high level, and the terminal demand is booming [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the 2601 contract, with the range of [76,800 - 78,500] [23]

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Three" oil companies in China are experiencing active trading with notable stock price increases, driven by a significant rise in international oil prices following U.S. sanctions on major Russian oil companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CNOOC (00883) increased by 3.08%, reaching HKD 20.1 [1] - PetroChina (00857) rose by 1.77%, reaching HKD 8.03 [1] - Sinopec (00386) gained 1.21%, reaching HKD 4.18 [1] Group 2: Oil Price Movement - International crude oil futures settled with an increase of over 2% [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.20%, priced at USD 58.50 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.07%, priced at USD 62.59 per barrel [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against two major Russian oil companies, impacting the global oil market [1] - According to Everbright Securities, the long-term supply-demand dynamics for crude oil remain favorable despite geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The firm maintains a positive outlook on the "Big Three" oil companies and the oil service sector from a long-term perspective [1]