第二，传统的供需分析框架暂时失效。 当前市场关心的不是OECD库存是高是低，也不是中国需求恢复 了几成，而是"美军在波斯湾部署了几艘航母""伊朗铀浓缩进度""霍尔木兹海峡是否有军舰对峙"。这些 变量无法量化，但恰恰是边际资金定价的核心依据。 因此，短期策略不应是博弈地缘事件的节奏，而应是承认不确定性本身已成为油价的支撑要素。只要美 伊"边谈边斗"的格局不根本逆转，油价就难以深度回调。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要覆盖石油与天然气勘探、开采、炼 制及销售等环节的企业。成分股主要为能源行业内具有较高市值和行业代表性的大型企业，以反映油气 产业链的整体表现。该指数侧重于传统能源领域，是衡量能源市场走势的重要指标之一。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 2月24 ...

【技术分析】 【要闻速递】 美国最高法院裁定去年美国总统特朗普的关税，随后特朗普展开报复，开征新一轮关税，幅度达15%， 同时，威胁说"耍花招"的国家会面临报复。并且，正考虑对六大行业征收新的国家安全关税。 俄乌还好，谈谈打打，打打谈谈，目前依然在谈。其次是中东地区，美伊以动态引全球关注，剑拔弩 张；虽然打的概率不大，毕竟伊朗不是阿富汗，不是伊拉克，更不是利比亚和叙利亚那种相对小的国 家；并且伊朗地处位置敏感，对油价影响大。 开战容易，停战难，特朗普还面临中期选举；极限施压目前没有效果，狠话都撂下了，特朗普和相关方 都有点骑虎难下。 摘要周二(2月24日)欧洲时段，春节期间，国际金银整体震荡，临近节尾受关税及地缘局势刺激打破平 衡，多头发力拉升。截至目前，国际黄金较节前涨逾200美元，白银涨超10美元，今日沪金银、TD等国 内品种料将高开。长假后首日波动剧烈，多空博弈加剧，切忌盲目追单，宜待市场修复后再介入。昨日 金银续创新高，黄金突破5140-45后触及5220-40目标，白银站上88美元，后市仍聚焦美伊局势与关税动 态。 周二(2月24日)欧洲时段，春节期间，国际金银整体震荡，临近节尾受关税及地缘局势刺激 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关税风波再起 【市场资讯】1）美联储理事沃勒：多位 CEO 称 AI 将致大量裁员，3 月利率决议取决于 2 月就业数据。2）特朗普关税—①欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议。②特朗普警告不遵守与 美国贸易协定的国家将面临更高关税。③美众议院议长约翰逊谈关税退税：无先例可循， 将由白宫定夺。④英首相发言人：一切措施都在考虑之中。3）伊朗问题—①特朗普称倾向 于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。②美特使威特科夫和库什纳将参加新一轮美伊谈判。③美 媒称美军参联会主席警告对伊动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突。4）飞猪发布数据显示，春节 假期国内游订单量再创新高，其中门票订单量同比去年增长超 80%，酒店间夜量同比增长 75%。更长假期还带来节中出游需求的进一步释放，大年初二至初五之间出行的订单量同 比增长约三成。 【南华观点】2026 年春节假期期间，海外金融市场主要围绕 AI 产业变局、地缘政治博弈 及关税政策重构三大主线展开博弈。具体来看：一为 AI 产业主线。AI 产业正经历深度生态 变革，产业深化过程中，行业层级分化持续加剧，核心是盈利逻辑的重新定位；二是地缘 政治主线。地缘政治方面，大国关系是影响市场波动 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月23日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶周度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】春节假期外盘橡胶期价整体波动不大，产地现货价格 稳中偏强，但美伊对抗进一步升级，美国考虑对伊朗实施有限的军 事打击，同时俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，原油价格预计将会大幅 高开，节后原油可能带动合成橡胶出现高开，整体呈现偏强走势， 但需警惕美伊局势变化导致地缘情绪降温以及宏观避险情绪升温带 来原油溢价回吐，此外需要关注中方对新一轮关税措施的回应情况 。 【重要资讯】美东时间20日傍晚，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体 发文称，他刚刚签署行政令，对所有国家征收10%的全球关税，几 乎立即生效，市场对 ...

所以问题来了：下午我们该怎么办？ 朋友们中午好，我是帮主郑重。上午这盘面，够热闹。 三大指数涨超1%，成交额比昨天放大了3000多亿，全市场超过4200只股票在涨。单看这些数字，妥妥 的"开门红"氛围。 但你打开账户看一眼，是不是觉得哪里不对？影视院线跌了，AI应用跌了，光线传媒一度20cm跌停 ——昨天还在憧憬春节档，今天就挨了一闷棍。 这就是今天上午最真实的盘面：放量普涨，但涨的不是你手里的。 钱去哪了？去了两个方向。 第一个方向，资源周期股。石油、黄金、化工，全线大涨。导火索很清楚：特朗普关税政策引发担忧， 美伊局势一触即发。布伦特原油重回70美元上方，黄金突破5160美元。资金在干什么？避险。地缘政治 这只黑天鹅一扇翅膀，资源品就成了资金躲雨的地方。 第二个方向，算力硬件股。长飞光纤涨停创新高，天孚通信、中际旭创、新易盛集体大涨。为什么？还 是那个老逻辑——AI的"卖铲人"。SK海力士说存储芯片价格全年涨，华工科技说订单排到四季度，今 天光纤、CPO接力，说明资金在产业链里轮动，从芯片到光模块，一个一个挖。 这两个方向有个共同点：都有实锤。要么是地缘冲突带来的涨价预期，要么是产业需求带来的订单能见 度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Group 1 - The ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions are escalating, with the U.S. potentially planning military strikes while Iran maintains a strong stance against yielding to pressure [1][3] - Iran possesses approximately 2,000 medium-range ballistic missiles, capable of reaching U.S. military bases in Turkey, Israel, and Gulf states, indicating its ability to retaliate if attacked [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical geopolitical asset for Iran, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, and Iran has threatened to close it in response to military action, which could significantly impact global energy supply [4] Group 2 - Iran's historical experience with negotiations, particularly the 2015 nuclear deal, has made it wary of compromising, as past concessions did not lead to lasting peace but rather further aggression [6] - The current standoff is seen as vital for Iran's regime survival and national dignity, with the Supreme Leader emphasizing that true strength comes from national will and resilience [7] - The potential for a prolonged conflict poses risks for the U.S., as its military might face challenges in a drawn-out engagement, which could contradict political promises and lead to domestic repercussions [8][10]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 免 责 声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 张证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需自行 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货 期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货股份有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2026/2/24 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/13 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 476.8 | 460. 7 | -16. 10 | 成交情况: P ...

ITG 国贸期货 性及完整性做任何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标 财务状况或需要,投资者需自行判断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,拥 投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我司将视情况追究法律责任。 险,入市需谨慎。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【一国贸易报 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 2026/2/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | 指标 | 2026/2/12 | 2026/2/13 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 5205 | 5130 | -75 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 3639 | 3588 | -51 | 现货资讯: | | | | | | 短纤:涤纶短纤生产工厂价格稳定,贸易商价格 | | PTA收盘价 | 5220 | 5204 | -16 | 僵持,春节将至, ...

贵金属日报 2026-02-24 贵金属 【行情资讯】 春节前一周，内盘截至 2 月 13 日，沪金涨 1.83 %，报 1110.10 元/克，沪银涨 5.23 %，报 19782.00 元/千克；外盘截至 2 月 23 日，COMEX 金涨 3.29 %，报 5247.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 6.87 %， 报 88.00 元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.03 %，美元指数报 97.71 ； 春节假期期间，国际现货黄金宽区间震荡，白银表现相对偏强但仍呈震荡格局。此前 FOMC 会 议纪要显示部分官员对降息态度较为谨慎叠加 2 月 23 日沃勒发言释放中性信号，或压制金价 上行空间；但关税政策不确定性、地缘紧张及央行购金行为，为金价提供支撑并推动价格修复。 假期公布数据显示美国通胀回落受阻。12 月 PCE 物价指数同比 2.9%、环比 0.4%，核心 PCE 同比升至 3.0%，均高于预期并高于美联储 2% 目标。2 月 20 日美国最高法院裁定，依据 IEEPA 加征的对等关税违法。特朗普随即依据《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条临时加征关税，短期 150 天内加征 15% ...