Internal Stability - The demand for stability in China can be traced back to the "20th National Congress" in 2022, which emphasized the coexistence of strategic opportunities and risks in development[3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" indicated a shift in the assessment of the external environment, moving from a "strategic opportunity period" to a phase characterized by increased uncertainty and challenges[7] - The core task of economic work is to ensure stability, as highlighted in recent meetings, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations[6] External Instability - Since 2025, geopolitical events have been frequent, categorized into "hot wars" and "non-military manifestations of geopolitical conflict" across various regions including South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Americas, and Africa[12] - The geopolitical landscape is influenced by multiple factors, including the failure of global governance systems, collisions of major power intentions, and the rightward shift in domestic politics, which reduces geopolitical stability[18] - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is viewed as part of a broader pattern of major power competition, with implications for global energy flow and strategic control[24] Economic Outlook for China - The internal demand for stability and the external geopolitical landscape provide a foundation for a bullish outlook on the Chinese economy[25] - The perspective on China's economy should shift from absolute to relative comparisons, focusing on stability as a growth premium amid global geopolitical turmoil[26] - There is a need to transition from a domestic focus to a global perspective, considering the global rebalancing of capital and trade in light of geopolitical dynamics[26] - Emphasis should be placed on self-reliance and technological advancement, particularly in overcoming critical technology bottlenecks while promoting widespread technological application[26] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include policy risks, geopolitical risks, and the possibility of outdated or unupdated information in the research report[27]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.78%[3] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.43%[3] - The ChiNext Index saw a gain of 2.33%[3] - The CSI 300 Index grew by 1.28%[3] - The total A-share market index increased by 2.11%[3] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sector was Environmental Protection, with a rise of 4.29%[3] - Textile and Apparel sector increased by 3.99%[3] - The worst-performing sector was Oil and Petrochemicals, which fell by 0.86%[3] - The Coal sector decreased by 0.49%[3] Conceptual Indices - The High Send Transfer Index surged by 8.11%[3] - The Minimum Market Value Index rose by 6.73%[3] - The Coal Mining Selected Index only increased by 0.07%[3] Geopolitical Events - Iran and Pakistan emphasized diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Persian Gulf[5] - U.S. President Trump announced a five-day pause on military strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure[5] - These developments contributed to a drop in oil prices and a rise in precious metals and U.S. stock index futures[5] Market Outlook - The market is expected to focus on the easing of geopolitical tensions and potential new policy support for technology innovation[8] - There is a need to observe if market sentiment shifts from cautious to positive, potentially increasing trading volume[8] - Risks include escalating geopolitical tensions and volatility in commodity prices[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Alumina: The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand, with positive industry consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and warming demand, with a slight increase in industrial inventory and positive industry expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: The cast aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a stage of increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 23,625 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,014 yuan/ton, down 79 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,225.50 US dollars/ton, up 33.50 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,585 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; that of alumina was - 39 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; that of cast aluminum alloy was - 115 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - **Position**: The position of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 261,158 hands, down 5,633 hands; that of the alumina main contract was 231,479 hands, down 15,331 hands; that of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 4,053 hands, down 521 hands [2]. - **Inventory**: LME aluminum canceled warrants were 154,625 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventory was 427,675 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE was 452,044 tons, up 35,619 tons; cast aluminum alloy inventory on the SHFE was 53,690 tons, down 9,041 tons [2]. - **Other indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was - 36,054 hands, down 7,332 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.32, down 0.05; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE were 42,944 tons, down 2,047 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Price**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 23,470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country was 24,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 23,430 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,815 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 155 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 284 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan [2]. - **Premium and discount**: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount was - 140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount was 30.63 US dollars/ton, down 6.95 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and utilization rate**: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 83.00%, down 1.00%; the alumina开工率 was 82.10%, down 0.39% [2]. - **Supply and demand**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - **Import and export**: The export volume of alumina was 15.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 18.10 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 136,323.65 tons, down 56,401.89 tons; the export volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 55.23 tons, up 33.81 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and capacity**: The production of primary aluminum was 201,491.17 tons, up 12,566.45 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum was 10,039.89 tons, down 3,249.90 tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. - **Export**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 1.33 million tons, down 1.09 million tons [2]. - **Operating rate**: The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.93%, up 0.04% [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Real estate**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - **Automobile**: The automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 24.08%, down 0.57%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 31.82%, down 0.04%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21.36%, down 0.0027 [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.90, up 0.1753 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Geopolitical**: The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock. The US President Trump said that the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, but Iran denied it [2]. - **Domestic policy**: President Xi Jinping inspected Xiongan New Area and emphasized its function positioning; the "upgraded" China - EU export control dialogue mechanism held its second meeting; the National Data Bureau will promote the power - computing synergy project; State Power Investment plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, with a 17% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Overseas policy**: The US Vice - President Vance discussed the Iran negotiation with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu; the Fed's Goolsbee said that inflation is the primary risk, not excluding the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for interest rate cuts this year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical situations, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Different sectors show various trends, with some in short - term adjustment, some in long - term upward potential, and others in high - level volatility or decline. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: There may be a technical rebound due to the easing signal of the Middle - East situation, but the sustainability is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is no trend turning point, and it is mainly in short - term adjustment. [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The funds are stable, and purchases by banks and insurance institutions provide support. Yields rise, and after the rise, there is value for layout. It shows a short - term rebound following the fluctuation of risky assets. [2] Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index continues to rise due to the game between geopolitical sentiment and off - season fundamentals. The market is in high - level wide - range oscillation, with near - month contracts affected by news and far - month contracts pricing long - term conflict expectations. [3] Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The Fed's delayed rate - cut rhythm and Middle - East easing expectations put pressure on prices. Weak - dollar logic and South African supply disturbances support prices. It is in short - term weak - side oscillation and has medium - to - long - term upward potential. [4] - **Gold and Silver**: Trump's easing remarks cause a V - shaped reversal. Geopolitical conflicts and interest - rate hike expectations are the core trading logics. It lacks short - term upward drivers and maintains low - level oscillation. [5] - **Copper**: The expectation of US - Iran easing drives a rebound. Domestic social inventory decreases significantly, and downstream purchasing supports prices. The probability of a sharp rise is small, and attention should be paid to volume - price matching and upper pressure levels. [5] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation and lack of new Middle - East production - cut news lead to weak - side oscillation. Supply shortages may cause price increases, and overseas fundamentals provide some resistance to decline. [6] - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity decreases, and the oversupply situation narrows. Overseas, geopolitical impacts and rising shipping costs bring a balance between cost support and supply pressure, with prices in oscillation. [6] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum, and has strong lower - side support due to raw material shortages and tax - refund policies. [7] - **Zinc**: Supply - side pressure is released, and demand is delayed with high inventory. Zinc prices face upward pressure and remain weak. [8] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The Fed's hawkish stance and US - Iran conflicts suppress prices. Uncertainty in sulfur supply and slow quota approval in Indonesia affect the industry. Stainless - steel price decline is limited, and demand release rhythm needs attention. [8] - **Tin**: Supply has a buffer, and demand starts to resume. Inventory is high, but the spot market shows warming. It is in weak - side oscillation with no obvious bullish turning point. [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is loose, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is jointly led by supply - demand fundamentals and capital sentiment, with prices in oscillation. [9] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Global energy transformation is an irreversible trend, and it is at the bottom of the production - capacity cycle. [10][11] - **Lead**: Supply - side pressure is obvious, and demand recovers slowly. Lead prices are expected to oscillate and gradually stop falling. [11] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rising oil prices drive up coking coal, and tight iron - ore inventory and rising freight provide cost support. High inventory and high warehouse receipts limit the upward space, and the short - term rebound height is limited. [12] - **Iron Ore**: The market is a mix of long and short factors. It shows a "near - strong, far - weak" feature, with prices supported by cost and tight spot supply but suppressed by medium - to - long - term demand and supply increase expectations. [13] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The rise is driven by expectations, but the fundamentals are insufficient. Domestic production increases, and inventory is close to the same - period level. The price increase may trigger delivery risks. [14] - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Manganese - ore prices are firm, and the lower - side cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening. Attention should be paid to the impact of hurricanes on mining areas. [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's easing signal causes a sharp drop in oil prices, but the conflict may still escalate. Geopolitical progress is the only core driver, and short - term volatility increases. [15] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged by weak downstream demand, and high - sulfur fuel oil is slightly supported. The market's strength eases, and the price decline space is limited. [15] - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical disturbances lead to short - term price increases in crude oil, which is the core factor overriding asphalt's own fundamentals. [16][17] - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Fluctuations in crude oil due to US - Iran news cause large - scale adjustments in chemicals. Short - term oscillation is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the duration of the Strait closure and supply reduction. [17] - **LPG**: Futures prices rise due to capital, showing an internal - strong, external - weak and futures - strong, spot - weak pattern. It is expected to return to fundamentals and oscillate at a high level, with a risk of回调. [18] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical games are the core logic. Supply - interruption concerns push up prices. The pricing logic changes, and port inventory decreases. The inter - month spread follows the US - Iran situation. [18] - **PP and Propylene**: Supply - side refinery maintenance and open export windows support the supply - demand situation. Geopolitical easing will reduce risk premiums, but supply reduction provides support. [19] - **Plastic**: Middle - East conflicts lead to supply reduction. Downstream resistance to high prices and demand feedback are obvious. The price has toughness, and short - term volatility increases. [20] - **Rubber**: Geopolitical news causes large fluctuations in synthetic rubber and small fluctuations in natural rubber. Cost support is strengthened, and inventory is reduced. Medium - to - long - term supply - demand supports valuation. [20] - **Soda Ash**: Supply pressure is high, and demand is stable but weak. Inventory is better than expected. The price increase space is limited, and the downward space depends on inventory accumulation. [21] - **Glass**: Cold - repair expectations continue, and medium - level inventory is a risk. Supply return expectations and high inventory limit the price increase, and demand needs verification. [22] - **Caustic Soda**: Supply pressure eases due to domestic and overseas device disturbances. Demand improves, but inventory is relatively high. Futures prices oscillate. [23][24] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The supply - demand situation is loose, with high supply and weak demand. Futures prices are under pressure and lack upward drivers. [25] - **Oilseeds**: The delay of Sino - US negotiations and short - term supply factors affect the market. The medium - term large - supply logic remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal is being repaired. [25] - **Oils**: Crude - oil price changes are the main factor affecting the oil market. Attention should be paid to the progress of bio - fuel policies in Indonesia and the US. [26] - **Cotton**: Geopolitical conflicts and increased supply lead to a decline in Zhengzhou cotton, but low downstream inventory and good consumption provide support. Attention should be paid to US cotton exports. [26] - **Sugar**: The expected reduction in Brazilian sugar production and geopolitical tensions affect the market. The supply - demand situation is stable, and prices oscillate. [27] - **Eggs**: Supply shortages in some areas and cost support lead to a rebound in futures prices. The supply - demand situation remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. [27] - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on demand, and downstream sales are weak. Prices are under pressure and may oscillate at a low level. [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Put on hold [9] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical tensions have shown signs of easing, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. However, the possibility of a peace agreement remains uncertain. Therefore, it is expected that the prices of gold and silver will mainly fluctuate in the near future [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - US President Trump stated that the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, suspending attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. Trump also said that the US was in consultations with Iran to reach a broader agreement, and an agreement "could be reached within 5 days or even less." However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement aimed to lower energy prices and gain time for military operations. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that inflation is currently the main risk facing the US economy, and he does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates. But if the Iran conflict is quickly resolved, there may still be a rate cut later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,041.78 yuan/gram and closed at 940.00 yuan/gram, a change of -9.55% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 992.80 yuan/gram and closed at 980.00 yuan/gram, a 4.26% increase from the afternoon close. - On March 23, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 17,693.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -12.56% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 1,259,324 lots, and the open interest was 222,721 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,000 yuan/kilogram and closed at 17,246 yuan/kilogram, an 11.91% increase from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 23, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.34%, a decrease of 0.59 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields was 0.49%, a change of -0.38 BP from the previous trading day [3]. Position and Trading Volume Changes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract on March 23, 2026, the long positions decreased by 4,018 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions decreased by 1,300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 854,620 lots, a change of 55.84% from the previous trading day. - On the Ag2606 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,163 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2,122 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 2,026,252 lots, a change of 45.74% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - In the precious metal ETFs, the gold ETF position was 1,056.99 tons yesterday, a decrease of 5.14 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,514 tons, an increase of 265 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On March 23, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 35.48 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 557.29 yuan/kilogram. - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange yesterday was approximately 61.00, a change of -0.15% from the previous trading day. The foreign gold-silver ratio was 64.26, a change of -4.35% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On the previous trading day (March 23, 2026), the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 104,370 kilograms, a change of 11.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 478,842 kilograms, a change of 15.89% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the price of gold will mainly fluctuate in the near future, and the fluctuation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 950 yuan/gram and 1,000 yuan/gram. - Silver: Similar to gold in terms of macroeconomics, the price of silver is also expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern, and the fluctuation range of the Ag2606 contract may be between 16,000 yuan/kilogram and 18,000 yuan/kilogram [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The escalation of the Iran situation and the non - opening of the Strait of Hormuz have led to concerns about energy supply disruptions, pushing up chemical prices [2] - On the supply side, the supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance and reducing the supply of propylene. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices, but some have reduced production due to profit issues. In the short term, the supply - demand situation of propylene remains tight, and price support exists before the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation [2] - The recommended strategy is to cautiously go long on hedging on the single - side, and there is no recommendation for cross - period and cross - variety operations [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 9859 yuan/ton (+1019), the East China spot price of propylene is 9300 yuan/ton (+650), the North China spot price of propylene is 9075 yuan/ton (+495), the East China basis of propylene is - 559 yuan/ton (-369), and the Shandong basis of propylene is - 784 yuan/ton (-524) [1] - Figures related to this part include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, 05 - 06 contract spread, 05 - 07 contract spread, and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][6][12][13][16] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - The propylene operating rate is 71% (+0%), the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan is 60 dollars/ton (+85), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is - 168 dollars/ton (-67), and the import profit is - 1225 yuan/ton (-532) [1] - Figures related to this part include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][19][23][26][27][30] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - PP powder operating rate is 27% (-4.13%), production profit is - 125 yuan/ton (+305); epoxy propane operating rate is 76% (-1%), production profit is 31 yuan/ton (-368); n - butanol operating rate is 83% (-2%), production profit is 1262 yuan/ton (+294); octanol operating rate is 88% (-3%), production profit is 758 yuan/ton (+144); acrylic acid operating rate is 72% (-5%), production profit is 4609 yuan/ton (+0); acrylonitrile operating rate is 75% (+1%), production profit is - 16 yuan/ton (+15); phenol - acetone operating rate is 87% (+1%), production profit is 16 yuan/ton (+408) [1] - Figures related to this part include the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][36][37][42][49][50][53][57] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - The on - site inventory of propylene is 46360 tons (+2100), and the figures related to this part include propylene on - site inventory and PP powder on - site inventory [1][5][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are fluctuating widely due to geopolitical disturbances in oil prices. The short - term price trends of both are likely to follow the fluctuations of international oil prices. For pure benzene, the supply is expected to tighten, and the demand - supply situation in March is expected to improve with a de - stocking expectation at ports. For styrene, the market is in a tight - balance pattern, but the profit is being compressed, and the downstream purchasing attitude is cautious [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Aspects - On March 23, the styrene main contract closed up 9.56% at 11,070 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 10.46% at 9,205 yuan/ton. International oil prices are fluctuating widely due to the Middle - East situation. The weekly output of pure benzene is 44.16 tons (+0.23 tons), with an operating rate of 74.58% (+0.38%). The comprehensive downstream operating rate of pure benzene has a slight decline. The operating rate of styrene is 70.46% (-1.33%), phenol is 87.4% (+0.4%), caprolactam is 77% (+2.5%), and aniline is 88.33% (-0.71%). The BZN spread is compressed to around - 82 dollars/ton, with a neutral - low valuation. The weekly output of styrene is 35.34 tons (-0.67 tons), with an operating rate of 70.46% (-1.33%). The downstream consumption is 26.58 tons (+0.47 tons), the operating rate of EPS is 61% (+3.22%), PS is 51.6% (-0.1%), and ABS is 67.1% (-0.3%). The non - integrated cash flow is compressed to - 26 yuan/ton, with a high valuation [2]. 3.1.2 Viewpoints - **Pure Benzene**: The cost - end international oil prices are fluctuating violently due to news. The short - term situation is still tense, and the oil prices are generally strong but with a callback expectation. The supply is expected to tighten as multiple domestic units enter the maintenance cycle in March, and the Asian naphtha cracking units have substantial production cuts. Although the output has a slight increase this week, the overall supply contraction trend remains unchanged. The downstream comprehensive operating rate has a slight decline, but the increase in styrene load supports pure benzene. The supply - demand situation of pure benzene in March is expected to continue to improve, and there is a de - stocking expectation at ports. The current naphtha increase is significantly higher than that of pure benzene, and the BZN spread is greatly compressed, with a neutral - low valuation. The short - term price is likely to follow the oil price fluctuations [3]. - **Styrene**: The industry profit on the supply side still has support. In March, domestic units have both restarts and maintenance. The weekly output and operating rate have a slight decline, and the overall supply increase is limited. The downstream has gradually recovered after the festival, and the consumption of the three major downstream products has increased month - on - month. The market is in a tight - balance pattern. The cost - end raw material prices continue to strengthen due to the tightened supply of pure benzene and ethylene, compressing the styrene profit. The non - integrated cash flow has turned from positive to negative, with a high valuation. The downstream market is affected by the large fluctuations in raw materials, and the purchasing attitude is cautious. The short - term styrene price fluctuates violently following the international oil prices [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Price Data - **Styrene**: The styrene futures main contract price increased from 10,104 yuan/ton on March 20 to 11,070 yuan/ton on March 23, a rise of 9.56%. The spot price decreased from 10,610 yuan/ton to 10,590 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.19%. The basis decreased from - 39 yuan/ton to - 220 yuan/ton, a decline of 464.10%. - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures main contract price increased from 8,333 yuan/ton to 9,205 yuan/ton, a rise of 10.16%. The East China pure benzene price increased from 8,185 yuan/ton to 8,635 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.50%. The South Korea FOB price increased from 1,049.6 dollars/ton to 1,132.4 dollars/ton, a rise of 7.88%. The US FOB price decreased from 1,261.7 dollars/ton to 1,225.8 dollars/ton, a decline of 2.84%. The China CFR price increased from 1,058.5 dollars/ton to 1,141.5 dollars/ton, a rise of 7.83%. The domestic - CFR spread of pure benzene decreased from - 588.7 yuan/ton to - 839.9 yuan/ton, a decline of 42.68%. The East China - Shandong spread of pure benzene increased from 585 yuan/ton to 1,035 yuan/ton, a rise of 76.92%. - **Upstream Prices**: The Brent crude oil price increased from 95.6 dollars/ton to 98.2 dollars/ton, a rise of 2.80%. The WTI crude oil price increased from 108.7 dollars/ton to 112.2 dollars/ton, a rise of 3.26%. The naphtha price increased from 8,366.7 yuan/ton to 8,916.7 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.57% [6]. 3.2.2 Output and Inventory Data - **Output**: The styrene output in China decreased from 36.0 tons in the week of March 13 to 35.3 tons in the week of March 20, a decline of 1.85%. The pure benzene output in China increased from 43.9 tons to 44.2 tons, a rise of 0.52%. - **Inventory**: The styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased from 15.7 tons to 16.3 tons, a rise of 3.83%. The pure benzene port inventory nationwide decreased from 30.2 tons to 28.8 tons, a decline of 4.64% [7]. 3.2.3 Operating Rate Data - **Pure Benzene Downstream**: The operating rate of styrene decreased from 71.8% to 70.5%, a decline of 1.33%. The operating rate of caprolactam increased from 74.9% to 77.2%, a rise of 2.34%. The operating rate of phenol increased from 86.9% to 87.4%, a rise of 0.53%. The operating rate of aniline decreased from 89.0% to 88.3%, a decline of 0.71%. - **Styrene Downstream**: The operating rate of EPS increased from 57.8% to 61.0%, a rise of 3.22%. The operating rate of SBV decreased from 67.4% to 67.1%, a decline of 0.30%. The operating rate of b2 decreased from 51.7% to 51.6%, a decline of 0.10% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - The April WTI crude oil rose 6.35 to 81.01 dollars/barrel, a rise of 8.51%. The May Brent crude oil rose 4.01 to 85.41 dollars/barrel, a rise of 4.93%. - On Thursday, the CFR price of port - linked PX increased by 28 dollars to 1,056.67 dollars, equivalent to about 8,404 yuan/ton, a rise of 223 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. - US President Trump said that further measures will be taken to relieve the oil pressure. - Traders increased their bets on the European Central Bank's interest - rate hike, with a 75% probability of an interest - rate hike this year. - According to Bahrain's official news, a facility of the main refinery of Bahrain National Oil Company was hit by an Iranian missile on the 5th, causing a fire [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those of pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, PS gross profit and operating rate, ABS gross profit and operating rate, EPS gross profit and operating rate, caprolactam weekly capacity utilization rate, phenol weekly capacity utilization rate, and aniline weekly capacity utilization rate [10][18][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, copper prices are expected to enter a bottom - seeking phase with support below but lack of upward drivers. The strategy is to shift from being cautiously bearish to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. The main factors affecting copper prices are the US - Iran conflict and inventory changes. [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas raw material cost support is weakening, and after the release of domestic production increase and the arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, the inventory is under pressure. If there is no unexpected geopolitical disturbance, the short - term aluminum price will be mainly in a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point. [2] - **Nickel**: Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and rising freight, the price of nickel ore is rising. The operation can refer to short - term long opportunities based on the cost line, but short - term attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. The expected supplementary quota in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel will also put pressure on nickel prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, and SHFE copper opened higher and fluctuated strongly. The domestic refined copper import window remained open. - Market sentiment was affected by the US - Iran conflict. Trump's attitude change reversed the market decline. - LME inventory increased by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,121 tons to 532,947 tons; SHFE copper warrants decreased by 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons; BC copper warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 14,086 tons. - After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment demand increased, and social inventory decreased rapidly. [1] Aluminum - Overnight alumina fluctuated weakly, AO2605 closed at 3,021 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, AL2605 closed at 23,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%. - The spot price of alumina rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed. - Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and the inventory was under pressure. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price was expected to adjust weakly. [1][2] Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.87% to $17,200/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.71% to 134,990 yuan/ton. - LME inventory decreased by 720 tons to 282,792 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons to 57,632 tons. - The price of nickel ore continued to rise due to tight supply and rising freight. The demand side showed some changes, and the operation could refer to short - term long opportunities based on cost. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper, waste copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 13,737 tons. The social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons. [4] - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [4] - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 198 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and that of alumina increased by 40,000 tons. [5] - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. The inventory of LME decreased, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 959 tons. [5] - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons. [7] - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.5%. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons. [7] 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026. [8][9][16][23][29][35][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Most products are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. For example, oil prices are affected by the US - Iran situation and will fluctuate repeatedly; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC are all in an oscillatory state [1][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, WTI May contract closed down $10.1 to $88.13 per barrel, a decline of 10.28%; Brent May contract closed down $12.25 to $99.94 per barrel, a decline of 10.92%; SC2605 closed at 742.2 yuan per barrel, down 62.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 7.81%. - The US - Iran situation has led to significant oil price fluctuations. The market is affected by news and will oscillate repeatedly [1]. 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - The main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 5.99% to 5060 yuan per ton on Monday, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 rose 3.51% to 5980 yuan per ton. - The market structures of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remain strong. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply from the Middle East and Europe has decreased, and high - sulfur fuel oil supply in Singapore is tight. The short - term cracking spread is expected to remain high [1][3]. 3.1.3 Asphalt - The main asphalt contract BU2604 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.59% to 4640 yuan per ton on Monday. - High raw material prices and reduced supply from refineries, along with expected increases in downstream demand, are expected to keep asphalt prices high in the short - term [3]. 3.1.4 Polyester - TA605 closed at 7134 yuan per ton, up 7.28%; EG2605 closed at 5574 yuan per ton, up 4.13%. - Due to upstream raw material supply issues, some production devices plan to reduce loads or shut down. With cost support and downstream demand changes, polyester prices will oscillate widely in the short - term [3]. 3.1.5 Rubber - On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 rose 145 yuan to 16145 yuan per ton, NR rose 190 yuan to 13055 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 1485 yuan to 17470 yuan per ton. - Tight geopolitical situations, changes in butadiene production, and expected early tapping of natural rubber in China will affect rubber prices. The price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [5]. 3.1.6 Methanol - The inventory of methanol has started to decline, but the expected resumption of Iranian plants may limit price increases. The unclear Iranian situation may cause significant price fluctuations [6]. 3.1.7 Polyolefin - Upstream plant maintenance and reduced loads will keep production at a low level, while downstream demand is expected to increase. However, rising costs due to geopolitical risks may squeeze downstream profit margins and affect future demand growth [6]. 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The PVC market prices in East, North, and South China have increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on ethylene - based PVC, but the profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC has increased rapidly. The overall market is expected to maintain a de - stocking trend [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on March 23, 2026, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles. For example, the basis of crude oil was 291.81 yuan per barrel on March 23, with a basis rate of 36.25% [8]. 3.3 Market News - The US Energy Secretary said that the release of the strategic petroleum reserve is possible but the probability is very low. The Trump administration is taking measures to stabilize the market. - The El Feel oil field in Libya has stopped production due to pipeline damage, and the oil from the Sharara oil field is transported through alternative pipelines [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][15][18]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The basis charts of main contracts of various products are presented, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, etc., showing the basis changes over time [29][33]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. are provided, including spreads between 01 - 05 and 05 - 09 contracts [38][40][44]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The spread and ratio charts between different varieties are shown, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, etc. [53][55][56]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - The production profit charts of LLDPE, PP, etc. are presented, showing the profit changes over time [61]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including the deputy director of the research institute, the research director, and analysts for different product segments, along with their educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [64][65][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - L: Bullish [2] - PP: Bullish [2] - PVC: Bullish [2] - PX/PTA: Bullish [3] - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Bullish [3] - Methanol: Bullish [3] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [3] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts, such as the situation in the Middle East, are the main factors driving the prices of energy and chemical products. Supply - side factors like device maintenance and reduced production due to geopolitical events, as well as changes in demand, affect the market trends of various products [2][3]. - Most products are expected to show a bullish or cautiously bullish trend in the short - term, but there are also risks and uncertainties, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical changes, cost fluctuations, and policy adjustments [2][3][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs L - **Market Performance**: L05 closed at 9523 yuan/ton, up 8.0% from the previous day; the main position increased by 11.0%. The spot price of LL in North China rose 10.5% [6]. - **Core Logic**: Following the short - term cost adjustment, the cost of ethylene remains strong. The shutdown ratio has increased to 15%, and more devices are planned to be shut down before early April. It is expected to continue the bullish shock before the raw material shortage is resolved [2][8]. PP - **Market Performance**: PP05 closed at 9793 yuan/ton, up 8.6% from the previous day; the main position increased by 10.5%. The PDH cost increased by 8.8%, and the profit continued to be compressed [9]. - **Core Logic**: PDH profit continues to be compressed, and the supply has room to shrink. The attack on the South Pars gas field increases the expectation of PG supply reduction, and the cost side strongly supports PP. The shutdown ratio has reached a high of 23%, and the supply - demand pattern is improving [2][11]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 closed at 6251 yuan/ton, up 6.4% from the previous day; the main position increased by 0.6%. The inventory of PVC decreased, and the social inventory showed a turning point [13]. - **Core Logic**: The US dollar price of ethylene continues to rise, and the ethylene - based PVC production reduction drives inventory depletion. Geopolitical conflicts intensify the expectation of global ethylene - based PVC production reduction, and some domestic ethylene - based devices have started to reduce production. It is expected to be bullish before the raw material shortage is resolved [2][15]. PX/PTA - **Market Performance**: TA05 closed at 5870 yuan/ton. The PTA processing fee is around 280 +, and the PXN is compressed to around 65 + [16]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the recent market. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz keeps oil prices high. The domestic PTA device has reduced production, while the downstream polyester starts to increase the load, but the terminal weaving orders have weakened. The fundamentals of PX have improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [3][17]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: The overall valuation is high, and the basis is weakening. The port inventory is at a low level in the same period, and the warehouse receipts and social inventory continue to decline [21]. - **Core Logic**: The cost has increased, and domestic and foreign devices have reduced production. The demand is improving but the strength is weak. The expectation of import reduction is expected to be fulfilled, and the inventory pressure is expected to be relieved in March - April [3][21]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract is at a high level in the past year, and the basis and monthly spread are weakening. The warehouse receipts have decreased significantly [25]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical games dominate the market, and the fundamentals are expected to improve. The domestic methanol load remains high, and the overseas device load is low. The import is expected to decrease in March - April. The demand is weakly stable, and the port inventory is accelerating depletion [3][25]. Urea - **Market Performance**: UR05 closed at 1841 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign price differences are large, and the comprehensive profit is 188.12 yuan/ton [27]. - **Core Logic**: Although the domestic and foreign price differences of urea are large, exports are difficult to liberalize before the end of the domestic spring plowing peak. The supply has decreased slightly but is still at a high level in the same period, the demand has recovered, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease. The price is restricted by policies [3][28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: SH05 closed at 2634 yuan/ton, up 3.5% from the previous day. The export orders have improved, and the price of high - concentration caustic soda has increased significantly [32]. - **Core Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East increase the expectation of production reduction of ethylene - based chlor - alkali integrated devices at home and abroad. The domestic maintenance intensity has increased, and the factory inventory has declined from a high level. Pay attention to the spring maintenance progress and export order volume changes [2][33].