Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the implications for investors, highlighting both short-term volatility and long-term bullish trends in the gold market [3][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have seen significant increases over the past year, with spot gold surpassing $3,440 per ounce and approaching historical highs of $3,500 per ounce [3][4]. - In May, global physical gold ETFs experienced a net outflow of approximately $1.8 billion, marking the first monthly net outflow since November 2024 [3][5]. - Short-term price movements are expected to be volatile, with potential fluctuations between $3,200 and $3,300 per ounce, and a possibility of a pullback to $3,100 [6][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to maintain a basic allocation of 5% in gold within their portfolios, with the option to increase this to 10% or 15% during market corrections [8][9]. - The recommendation is to avoid excessive concentration in gold investments and to adopt a dynamic approach to portfolio adjustments [8]. - For ordinary investors, it is suggested to prioritize standardized financial products like gold ETFs or gold funds due to their lower costs and operational convenience compared to physical gold [9].

6月12日亚盘早市，现货黄金延续强势，开盘即跳涨至3364.1美元/盎司，随后快速冲高至3377.74美元/盎司的本周新高， 较前一交易日收盘价上涨0.63%，日内最低触及3356美元，当前交投于3375美元附近。伦敦银现同步走强，最高触及 36.371美元/盎司，现报36.35美元，维持在36美元关键支撑上方。 | 昨收 | 3355.34 最高 | | 3377.74 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3357.29 最低 | | 3356.04 | | 买入 | 3375.53 | 卖出 | 3375.73 | 一、基本面驱动：地缘风险与政策预期双重引擎 地缘政治风险白热化 俄乌冲突持续升级，俄罗斯对乌克兰国防工业发动集群打击，乌克兰多地基础设施严重受损，波兰紧急部署战机应对边 境威胁。与此同时，中东局势因沙特推动巴勒斯坦建国会议复杂化，以色列与伊朗的核威慑对峙加剧，地区安全不确定 性直接推升避险买需。世界银行最新报告将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.3%，并警告贸易壁垒和关税上调可能导致 全球贸易停滞，进一步强化黄金的避险属性。 美联储降息预期升温 美国5月CP ...

Group 1 - Current US-China trade relations show significant signs of easing, leading to a reduction in safe-haven demand for gold, which is currently undergoing a phase of adjustment, although gold's safe-haven attributes will limit its downside potential [1] - Recent data indicates that the negative impact of tariff policies on the US economy is becoming evident, with the manufacturing PMI index remaining weak and the services PMI index experiencing its first contraction in a year [1][2] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 48.5, the lowest since November of the previous year, with new orders index at 47.6, highlighting the impact of tariff increases on demand [1] Group 2 - The ISM services PMI for May fell to 49.9, significantly below expectations, with the new orders index dropping to 46.4, marking the largest decline since June 2024 [2] - The US added 139,000 non-farm jobs in May, exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.9% year-on-year, reflecting tightening labor supply rather than strong demand [3] Group 3 - China's foreign exchange reserves rose to nearly $3.3 trillion in May, with gold reserves increasing slightly to 73.83 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of gold accumulation [4] - Since November 2022, China's central bank has cumulatively added 10.16 million ounces of gold, although the pace of accumulation has slowed in recent months [4] - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, saw a slight year-on-year increase of 1% in Q1 2025, with central banks remaining significant buyers despite a slight slowdown [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by improved tariff expectations and slightly better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data, leading to reduced market risk aversion. However, analysts believe that gold remains a valuable asset class to watch in the second half of 2025 due to ongoing economic risks and central bank gold purchases [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have declined due to U.S. non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, which has lowered market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2]. - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, surpassing the expected 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2]. - Consumer inflation expectations in the U.S. have decreased, with one-year inflation expectations dropping from 3.6% in April to 3.2% in May, indicating improved consumer confidence [2]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China reported an increase in gold reserves to 73.83 million ounces by the end of May, marking a continuous increase for seven months [5]. - Since April 2025, the pace of gold purchases by the People's Bank of China has slowed, which may weaken short-term support for gold prices [5]. - Analysts suggest that despite the slowdown in gold purchases, the ongoing high debt burden in the U.S. could lead to continued central bank gold accumulation globally [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could range between $2,980 to $3,600 per ounce in the second half of 2025, with Shanghai gold prices expected to range from 720 to 860 yuan per gram [8]. - The relationship between U.S. CPI and gold prices indicates that when CPI exceeds 2.5%, the probability of gold price increases is significantly higher than decreases [8]. - The ongoing economic uncertainties and potential for further central bank gold purchases suggest that gold's long-term investment value remains intact [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has shown a decline of 0.47% as of June 10, 2025, with a latest price of 7.66 yuan and a trading volume of 15.0177 million yuan. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of May, China's official gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), reflecting an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month [1]. - Zhejiang Securities anticipates further increases in gold reserves, emphasizing the positive impact of central bank purchases on gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. - Recent reports from Caixin Securities highlight the fragility of the economic recovery in the U.S., with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment growth falling short of expectations, which may influence gold demand as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics of Shanghai Gold ETF - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a 37.01% increase in net value over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [2]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since inception, with the longest streak of monthly gains being 6 months and an average monthly return of 3.04% [2]. - The historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period for the ETF stands at 100% [2]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The Shanghai Gold ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 2.51 as of June 6, 2025, ranking in the top 2 out of 7 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3]. - The ETF has shown a relative drawdown of 0.17% year-to-date compared to its benchmark, suggesting lower risk in terms of drawdown among comparable funds [3]. - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are relatively low compared to similar funds [4].

国家外汇管理局近日公布的数据显示，央行连续7个月增持黄金。 券商中国记者注意到，近日券商分析师纷纷对央行购金及未来黄金走势进行进一步解读。分析师普遍认为，中 长期来看，各国央行对于黄金的储备仍有进一步提升空间，央行购金行为有望延续，预计未来金价仍有提升空 间。 除了黄金之外，一些机构还直言看好短期白银投资机会。 机构：央行黄金储备份额提升空间依然广阔 国家外汇管理局近日公布的数据显示，截至5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美 元，升幅为0.11%。其中，黄金储备为7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，为央行连续7个月增持。 国金证券最新解读称，央行购金需求或为中长期趋势，阶段性高点或出现在"美债危机"。一方面，美元信用走 弱甚至触及"美债违约"风险，均将支撑央行购金需求；另一方面，逆全球化风险尤其贸易谈判不确定性上升的 背景下，全球央行或继续增持黄金以提升储备资产的安全性和多元化。中长期维度下，央行黄金储备份额提升 空间依然广阔。 浙商证券首席经济学家李超认为，预计黄金未来仍有进一步提升空间。中长期来看应重点关注各国央行的购金 行为对黄金价格的正向驱动，预计来自各国央行的资金有望保持净 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong demand growth, insufficient supply release, and a long - term bullish trend in gold, geopolitical crises, continuous central bank gold purchases, a loose monetary environment, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit support the long - term strength of gold prices. The report maintains that gold is expected to reach a high of $3,800 - $4,000 per ounce this year, corresponding to a RMB price of 880 - 930 yuan per gram. For silver, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan per kilogram this year, with the US silver above $42 per ounce. Investors can buy long positions in gold and silver on dips [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Silver Market Demand - Silver is the core material for photovoltaic cell conductive paste, with about 80 tons of silver consumed per 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 600GW, and the demand for silver paste increased by over 25% year - on - year. In 2025, global photovoltaic installed capacity continued to grow steadily, leading to a rapid increase in the industrial demand for silver. It is predicted that global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 390GW in 2023 to 1000GW in 2030. In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 277.57GW, maintaining its global leading position and strongly supporting domestic silver demand. Additionally, the semiconductor industry, servers, and high - performance chips also show a surging demand for silver conduction [5]. Supply - 70% of global silver is a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc mines. Affected by the low prices of base metals, global silver production has declined in recent years. In 2024, global silver production was 25,000 tons, a 2% year - on - year decline. The contraction in supply has led to a 45% decline in the London Bullion Market Association's silver inventory over the past three years to 26,000 tons, only enough to cover 5 months of industrial demand [8]. Price Influence - Silver has both industrial and precious metal attributes and is affected by gold prices. The current domestic "silver/gold" ratio is around 11.2, which is in the undervalued area [11]. Geopolitical Factors - On June 1, 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict reached a historic turning point. Ukraine launched a special military operation, and Russia urgently initiated the deployment procedure of 300,000 - ton strategic nuclear weapons, casting a shadow of nuclear deterrence over Eurasia. In addition, the situations in India - Pakistan and the Middle East remain unstable, which drives up the prices of precious metals [14]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in April 2025, which was the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases since November 2024. Since November 2022, the central bank has restarted gold purchases, buying 62.21 tons in 2022, 224.88 tons in 2023, 44.17 tons in 2024, and 14.9 tons in the first four months of 2025. As of the end of April, the central bank held 2,295 tons of gold, indicating the substitution demand for US dollar assets and the official recognition of the long - term value of gold [15]. Monetary Policy - On May 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market. This was the second reserve requirement ratio cut since September 2024. Since 2021, China has been in a cycle of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the interest rate level has been declining. In addition, the monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States are also becoming more accommodative. The Federal Reserve entered an interest rate cut cycle in December 2023, and there is still an expectation of several interest rate cuts this year. Europe is also in a long - term interest rate cut cycle. The global loose monetary environment remains unchanged, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by major economies will further push up the price of gold [18][20]. US Dollar and Gold - The US federal government debt reached $37 trillion in May 2025, up from $36 trillion in November 2024, with the debt scale expanding at an accelerating pace. The Federal Reserve's continuous bond purchases have led to currency over - issuance, weakening the US dollar's purchasing power in the long run. When the US dollar's credit is damaged, gold, as a non - credit currency, is often favored. The US dollar is likely to enter a long - term depreciation channel, and gold will benefit from the currency substitution demand. Recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, falling below 110 since January [22][23]. Gold Price Technical Analysis - Technically, the gold price is still supported by the support line. Every "pullback" is supported by the strong support line, and May was no exception. Now, gold has returned to the upward price trend [24].

Group 1 - Despite rising gold prices, gold mining ETFs are experiencing capital outflows, indicating a diminishing appeal in this once-thriving sector [1] - Year-to-date, gold mining stocks have significantly outperformed the broader market, with the largest gold mining ETF, VanEck (GDX.US), rising 57%, surpassing gold's 24% increase [1] - Monthly capital outflows have been observed in the VanEck ETF throughout the year, except for May, even as gold prices reached historical highs [1][3] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the outflows include long-term budget overruns making investors wary of holding mining stocks, with many viewing them as trading opportunities rather than long-term investments [3] - The Nasdaq 100 index, primarily composed of tech stocks, has risen 10% since late April, attracting traders away from gold mining stocks [3] - Analysts from Bank of America Securities have suggested investors shift from gold to oil, highlighting the relative value differences between these asset classes [3] Group 3 - Despite recent gains, mining stocks are still considered undervalued based on historical price-to-earnings ratios, with Newmont Mining (NEM.US) having a forward P/E ratio of only 13, below its five-year average of 20 [4] - Current valuations imply a gold resource value of only $1,454 per ounce, significantly lower than the current spot gold price of $3,380 [6] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with estimates of monthly purchases averaging 80 tons, contributing to ongoing support for gold prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the volatility of gold prices, with significant fluctuations becoming commonplace, particularly after April, where daily price changes of $100 have become routine [1][3] - The current market conditions are driven by various factors including trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased investor speculation in gold [3][5] - The gold market is expected to experience a range of $2950 to $3500, with potential for both long and short positions as long as there are sufficient reasons and risk management is in place [3][5] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3415 and $3438, with a potential breakthrough leading to new highs around $3500, while support levels are noted at $3280-$3285 and $3300 [5][8] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the range between $3365 and $3330, with opportunities for both long and short positions depending on market movements [7][8] - The silver market is advised to follow gold's trends without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and economic recession fears [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has seen unprecedented daily price movements, with fluctuations of $100 becoming routine, indicating a highly speculative environment [1]. - The recent trading session showed a high of 3345 and a low of 3279, with a total daily range of $66, which is considered normal for recent market conditions [1][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt strict stop-loss strategies and to be flexible in their trading approach, whether going long or short, as long as there are solid reasons for their positions [1]. - Key support levels to watch include the 3280 area, with potential pullbacks to 3250-55 or even 3200 if the market declines [5][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 3315 area acting as a resistance level and the 3280 area serving as a support level [7]. - The trading strategy should involve buying near support levels and selling at resistance, with specific attention to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages for additional support [5][7].