昨日黄金又是过山车的走势，高位震荡回踩向下，同时保持高位抗跌走势。晚间最低回落4163，不过尾盘又强势收回失地。黄金如果继续保持这样的走势， 那么不排除后续日K会震荡上升，盘面重新回到多头主导。 黄金虽短期面临获利回吐压力，但美联储降息预期、央行强劲购金、美债收益率回落、美元走弱以及地缘政治不确定性等多重因素合力推动向上突破。临近 年末，展望未来，5000美元目标可能并非遥不可及。大家多多关注美联储和关键数据的表现。 早盘反弹继续关注4245和4265附近阻力，接近不破轻仓空。回测先关注4183附近，进一步下破关注4163附近支撑。目前来看多空都有机会，反复性强，短线 处于高位反复迂回洗盘，小周期可能伴随反复的冲高回落。积存金关注945-940。日内操作有两个难点：一是支撑快速刺破容易被扫损，二是回踩后持续抗 跌拉升难以形成趋势性回落。保持好自己的节奏，最近不去追单，注意下操作手法 【汇金趋势掌乾坤，每日思路见真章】 【操作思路】 反弹4245轻仓试空，突破关注4265附近压制 回落4183不破多，破位关注4163支撑 积存金关注945-940 更多实时关注李槿后续 投资有风险，入行需谨慎 昨日超神回落多拿下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will boost the price of precious metals. In the short - term, low inventory and potential short - term demand release increase the upward price elasticity. Platinum and palladium prices mainly follow gold and silver [3]. - The arrival of domestic electrolytic copper is scarce, and downstream restocking at low prices has led to a decline in inventory, keeping the futures market strong. However, new downstream orders are growing weakly, and the market will maintain a high - level shock consolidation after the breakthrough [15]. - The Shanghai Aluminum futures are oscillating strongly due to improved macro - sentiment and the impetus from copper and silver. Alumina is in an oversupply situation. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai Aluminum and has strong downside support [34][35]. - Macro - sentiment has improved, and the probability of interest - rate cuts is considered high. On the fundamental side, smelters are competing fiercely for ore, leading to a significant decline in TC. Supply is shrinking, and demand is entering the off - season. The market is in a stalemate and will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - Nickel iron prices have been declining recently, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is expected to be limited [80]. - In the short - term, the supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so Shanghai Tin will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - In the context of Ningde's resumption of production, the supply - demand game in the lithium carbonate market will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is a short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may experience a phased correction [109]. - Industrial silicon is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward price space is limited. The short - term trading of the polysilicon market focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest, and price fluctuations are expected to increase [121]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Forecast**: London Silver's target has been raised to 65 after breaking through 55, with the first resistance at 60. London Gold has resistance at 4250 and strong resistance at 4400, with support at 4000 [3]. - **Price Index**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold prices, the US dollar index, and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][8][9]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are shown [14]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The futures market is strong due to low inventory, but new downstream orders are growing weakly. The market will maintain a high - level shock [15]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and refined - scrap price differences are provided [15][22][26][29]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME copper inventories are presented [30][31]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Shanghai Aluminum is oscillating strongly due to macro - factors and the impetus from other metals. Alumina is in an oversupply situation [34]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and import profits and losses are provided [36][43][50][56]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are presented [58]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Macro - sentiment has improved, but the fundamental side is in a stalemate. The market will oscillate strongly in the short - term [65]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and LME zinc's 0 - 3m and 3 - 15m spreads are provided [66][71]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME zinc inventories are presented [74][76]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel iron prices are declining, and some iron plants are inclined to cut production. Stainless steel is running strongly, but its upward momentum is limited [80]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, trading volume, open interest, and basis are provided [81]. - **Related Data**: Nickel ore prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins are presented [87][88][90]. Tin - **Market Situation**: The supply of tin has raw - material problems and frequent disturbances, so it will maintain a high - level shock [96]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, import profits and losses, and processing fees are provided [97][102][107]. - **Inventory**: SHFE and LME tin inventories are presented [104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand game will intensify, and price fluctuations are expected to widen. There is short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and prices may correct [109]. - **Price Data**: Futures and spot prices, price differences between different contracts, and price differences between different grades are provided [110][113]. - **Inventory**: Exchange and social inventories are presented [119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: Industrial silicon is in a weak supply - demand situation, and its fundamentals are difficult to improve in the short - term. The polysilicon market's short - term trading focuses on the game between warehouse receipts and open interest [121]. - **Price Data**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices are provided [121][131]. - **Related Data**: Production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented [145][152][154].

在于供应紧张、白银ETF需求强劲带动、美联储降息预期升温等多重因素带动下，白银近期呈现出超越 黄金涨幅的强势格局。 昨夜今晨，现货白银持续突破历史新高，首次站上58美元/盎司，最高触及58.84美元/盎司，沪银夜盘也 收涨超5%。 不过，12月2日早盘，现货白银突发跳水，截至发稿时跌超2%，交投于56.777美元/盎司附近。至此，现 货白银年内涨幅在昨天突破100%后，稍有回撤，显著高于现货黄金的60%涨幅。 潮新闻客户端 记者 吴恩慧 在现货白银下挫的同时，伦敦现货黄金也震荡走低，截至发稿时，现货黄金下跌0.5%，交投于4210美 元/盎司附近。 南华期货表示：从中长期维度看，央行购金以及投资需求增长前景（货币宽松前景、阶段性避险交易， 以及对AI股防御式配置需求）仍将助推贵金属价格重心继续上抬。短期看，低库存现实，以及需求短 期释放可能性增加价格向上弹性，周内白银已经续刷新高，伦敦银在突破55美元/盎司关口后，目标位 已进一步上抬至65美元/盎司，第一阻力60美元/盎司整数关口；伦敦现货黄金阻力4250美元/盎司，强阻 力4400美元/盎司，支撑4000美元/盎司。 ...

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投 资实物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF （517400）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 申万宏源证券指出，近期黄金上涨主要系12月降息预期升温，长期看货币信用格局重塑持续，大而 美法案通过后美国财政赤字率将提升，当前我国黄金储备偏低，央行购金为长期趋势，金价中枢将持续 上行。2024年4月后中国央行停 ...

国联民生证券研报指出，经济数据持续发布后，美联储部分官员释放12月降息信号，支撑贵金属价格反 弹，未来在央行购金+美元信用弱化主线下，继续看好金银价格上涨。此前降息预期过于悲观，随着美 联储官员释放"鸽派"信号，12月降息预期抬升，降息预期从不足4成回升至超过8成。白银海内外库存加 速去化，或迎来逼仓行情。中长期看，央行购买黄金+美元信用弱化为主线，持续看好金银价格中枢上 移。 12月1日，沪深两市震荡上行，盘面上，贵金属板块集体拉升。截至10点15分，有色金属 ETF(512400.SH)涨3.52%，白银有色涨停10%，江西铜业、兴业银锡涨超9%。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 整体而言，在供给刚性、新兴需求扩张及流动性改善的多重驱动下，中证申万有色金属指数估值分位数 处于近10年较低水平，板块中长期配置价值依然稳固，建议关注有色金属ETF(512400.SH)。 ...

今年黄金价格的表现如何？未来走势如何判断？ 今年（2025 年）黄金价格表现强劲，10 月 20 日达到峰值，年内涨幅超过 60%。虽然此后有小幅下跌，但基本维持在 4,000 美元上下震荡。最新数据显 示，10 月 27 日黄金现货价格为 4,189 美元，再次回升至高位。从 1970 年以 来，黄金经历了三轮大的增长周期，目前处于第三轮周期中。第一轮增长在 1970 年至 1980 年期间，由布雷顿森林体系瓦解、石油危机与大国冷战推动； 第二轮增长在 2001 年至 2012 年，由互联网泡沫破裂、金融危机和欧债危机 推动；第三轮从 2019 年至今，由新冠疫情、地缘冲突和大国博弈推动。尽管 当前的上涨时间长度和幅度相比前两轮仍有一定空间，但基于货币属性、商品 年度展望：黄金还会涨吗：黄金复盘、定价线索与展望 20251128 摘要 黄金现货价格重回高位，当前处于自 1970 年以来的第三轮增长周期， 前两轮分别由布雷顿森林体系瓦解和金融危机等事件驱动。尽管本轮周 期仍有上涨空间，但需关注地缘政治风险、黄金储备和实际利率等关键 影响因素。 地缘政治风险指数接近 2008 年金融危机水平，全球央行战略性囤积 ...

01 贵金属涨到宕机！ 根据Wind数据显示，周五贵金属市场，COMEX黄金涨1.59%，伦敦金现涨1.48%。COMEX白银大涨6.06%，伦敦银现涨5.66% 消息面上，本周多位美联储官员释放鸽派言论，12月再次降息的可能性依然存在。根据预测平台数据，鸽派候选人凯文·哈塞特已成为下一任美联 储主席的热门人选，外界普遍预期他将落实特朗普大幅降息的呼吁。 据CME"美联储观察"资料显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为86.4%，一周前，这个概率还在40%左右。而维持利率不变的概率为13.6%。 瑞银 指出，推动价格上涨的关键因素仍然存在，包括名义和实际利率下降、持续的赤字担忧以及美元可能进一步走弱。 | W | COMEX白银 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SI.CMX | | | | | | | | 57.085 | | 昨结 | 53.825 | 总手 | | 9.57万 | | | +3.260 | | +6.06% 升益 | 53.855 | 现手 | | 1 | | | 最高价 | 57.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant bull run, with prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions, monetary policy changes, and central bank purchases, leading to widespread public interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][9]. Group 1: Price Trends and Historical Context - Gold prices have surged from approximately $2,600 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4,100 per ounce, marking a nearly 58% increase within a year [1]. - In 2024, international gold prices set 40 historical highs, indicating a rare and robust bull market not seen in many years [1][3]. - Predictions for 2026 suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, with estimates from major financial institutions indicating potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [8][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - Geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led investors to view gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing demand and driving prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle has attracted funds to gold, as lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [3][9]. - Central banks globally have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a reported net purchase of 220 tons in Q3 2025, a 28% increase from the previous quarter, indicating strong institutional support for gold [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Current gold prices are at a high level, with fluctuations observed, such as a recent drop from $4,150 to $4,090 within two days, suggesting potential volatility for investors [4][5]. - Historical patterns indicate that after rapid price increases, a correction phase typically follows, which may present buying opportunities for investors [5][10]. - The domestic market shows a divergence in pricing, with brand gold jewelry often priced 20% to 25% higher than international market rates, suggesting that investors may benefit from considering investment-grade gold products like ETFs instead of high-premium jewelry [6][10]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - Consumer demand for gold jewelry in China has decreased by 32.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, indicating that high prices may be deterring purchases [8]. - Investors are advised to prepare for potential short-term volatility and to consider a phased investment approach to mitigate risks associated with market entry at high prices [8][11]. - The long-term appeal of gold as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty remains strong, despite potential challenges from high prices and fluctuating dollar strength [9][13].

要知道现在金价已经在历史高位了，这意味着还得再涨近20%才能摸到这个目标。 结构性转变：央行购金与"去美元化"的暗流 高盛石油研究主管达安・斯特鲁文给出的理由很明确，就是"央行购金"和"美联储降息"这两个双轮驱动 力。 别看这逻辑说起来简单，背后其实是全球宏观经济和货币体系在悄悄发生大变化。想搞懂这波金价看涨 的行情，咱就得扒开数字表面，看看底下真正的结构性力量到底是什么。 文|锐资 编辑|锐资 前言： 家人们，最近国际金融圈被一条消息炸翻了：投行巨头高盛抛出重磅预测，到2026年底，国际金价可能 会飙升到4900美元/盎司。 首先咱得说第一个核心驱动力，也是高盛最看重的，各国央行的结构性购金。这可不是央行一时兴起的 短期操作，而是实打实的战略转向。 放在以前，央行买黄金都是慢节奏的，顶多算资产配置里的小调整。但从2022年开始，全球央行购金规 模就一直卡在历史高位，现在已经成了影响金价的关键快变量。为啥大家突然都开始囤黄金了？说到底 还是心里没底。 地缘政治冲突不断，美国动不动就把金融体系当武器用，再加上自己背着庞大的财政赤字，各国手里的 美元资产越来越不安全。 而黄金不一样，高盛一句话点透了："一旦将黄金 ...

. 贵金属有色金属产业日报 2025/11/26 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。 在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修 改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交 易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻版、复制、发表、引用 或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 本 ...