Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro atmosphere supports market sentiment. In the short term, the supply and demand of coal and coke have marginal fluctuations, generally remaining at a relatively high level. The inventory pressure is temporarily low. The prices should be treated with cautious optimism, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high level [4]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Content Market Performance - Last week, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated strongly, and the spot market was generally stable and strong. The second round of coke price increase was implemented, and many coke enterprises started the third round of increase, which may be implemented this week [3]. Macro Environment - Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, and the Sino - US trade negotiation progressed smoothly with eased frictions. The 15th Five - Year Plan in China was released beyond market expectations, which enhanced market risk appetite and supported the recovery of market sentiment [3]. Fundamental Situation Supply - Domestically, coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi that stopped or reduced production during the National Day basically returned to normal last week, with output quickly recovering. The coking coal output rose to 779,000 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons compared with the previous week. From the import side, high - frequency data showed that the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port of Mongolian coal rose to 164,300 tons last week, an increase of 56,000 tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. Demand - Steel mill profits continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. However, from past experience, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills for the time being. The decline in hot metal output last week was mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei, where steel mills cut production. The average daily hot metal output dropped to 2.3636 million tons, a decrease of 35,500 tons compared with the previous week. As the peak demand season approaches the end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material side [3]

Core Viewpoint - The most important aspect of a bull market is position management, where a correct directional position can lead to profits in a generally rising market. The ideal strategy is to maintain a decreasing pyramid-shaped position, reducing holdings as prices rise to avoid losses during corrections [1][2]. Position Management - The current market is viewed as being halfway through the bull cycle, with valuations at historical average levels. The market has recently experienced fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with support at the 3900-point level, indicating a return to a normal trend after filling gaps [1][2]. - The current position is seen as the last opportunity for light accumulation, while excessive accumulation is considered aggressive. It is advised not to increase positions further as the market progresses [2][6]. Risks of Inverted Pyramid Positioning - Inverted pyramid positioning, where investors increase their holdings disproportionately as prices rise, is deemed dangerous. This can lead to significant losses if the market corrects, as the average cost of holdings increases, making it easier to incur losses even when the stock price remains above initial purchase levels [3][4][5]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The market sentiment is currently rational, with no extreme bullishness observed. This indicates that there is still room for growth before reaching a euphoric state. The ideal buying opportunities often arise when market sentiment is low, while selling opportunities appear when sentiment is overly optimistic [17][19]. - The transition from a bull to a bear market is anticipated to be challenging for those who do not manage their positions effectively, especially if they increase their holdings during the latter stages of a bull market [6][12]. Future Positioning Strategy - The recommended strategy moving forward is to maintain a decreasing pyramid-shaped position, gradually realizing profits while protecting gains through options strategies. This approach aims to mitigate potential losses during market transitions [9][12][21]. - Investors are cautioned against floating accumulation after the main upward trend has concluded, as this could lead to significant losses during market corrections [8][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][6]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - sentiment [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated market sentiment [2][13]. - Coke is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][18]. - Coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the resonance of macro and sector themes [2][19]. - Logs are expected to have repeated fluctuations [2][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton (-0.25%); the position increased by 8,698 hands. The prices of imported and domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis of 12601 against Super Special increased by 2.0 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jinbuba also increased by 2.0 yuan/ton [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the futures contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,106 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.38%); for HC2601, it was 3,318 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%). The basis of RB2601 increased by 17 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 3 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 30, weekly data showed that rebar production increased by 5.52 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.1 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 41.09 tons. The Ministry of Commerce and other 5 departments supported eligible commercial real estate projects to issue REITs. The 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry. In September 2025, national steel production data showed different trends in production volume and daily output compared with the same period last year and the previous month. In early October 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises increased compared with the previous period [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2601 was 5550 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; for ferrosilicon 2605, it was 5648 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The closing price of silicomanganese 2601 was 5842 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; for silicomanganese 2605, it was 5890 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan/ton [14][15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to iron alloy online, on October 30, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions had different changes. The operating rates and production of ferrosilicon enterprises in Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu regions in October also changed. In January, the electricity price in Yunnan would rise, and some silicomanganese factories would reduce or stop production. Some steel mills finalized the purchase prices of ferrosilicon [14][16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of coking coal JM2601 was 1288 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan (-1.1%); for coke J2601, it was 1786.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan (-0.8%). The spot price of some coking coals and cokes changed, and the basis and spread also changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [20]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price and trading volume of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 changed. The prices of different types of logs in the spot market also had different daily and weekly price changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions continue to boost market sentiment, but the differentiation of fundamentals leads to different price performances of sector varieties. The supply - demand of coal and coke remains balanced with high - level price oscillation, while high inventories of steel and continuous inventory accumulation of iron ore lead to price declines [1][2]. - The marginal weakening of the supply - demand pattern is the main feature of the later fundamental situation, which still poses upward resistance to the prices of some sector varieties. At the same time, there is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy levels. It is recommended to seize the upward opportunities under favorable macro and policy conditions [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The weekly molten iron output has decreased as expected. The weakening of steel mill profitability and the start of the off - season will limit the recovery space of molten iron after the end of environmental protection restrictions. Iron ore arrivals are expected to recover, and inventory is expected to increase marginally. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not prominent. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the finished product data has slightly improved, and the downward driving force of scrap steel is limited. It is expected that the short - term scrap steel price will mainly follow the finished products [2][10]. Carbon Element - Coke: Under environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is temporarily tightened, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not large. With the continuous increase in raw coal prices, coke has started three rounds of price increases. However, although the finished product prices have slightly recovered recently, steel mill profits are still under pressure, and the game between steel and coke continues. It is expected that the coke price will oscillate [2][12]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, the coal mine inventory has dropped to a recent low. The short - term fundamentals are healthy. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will oscillate, waiting for further macro and policy boosts [2][13]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost is stable, and the high output of steel supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the driving force for the price increase of manganese silicon is insufficient [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the ferrosilicon price in the short term. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward price space is limited [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Some manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase is implemented and the sales situation after implementation. If the sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][14]. - Soda ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center of gravity will still move down to promote capacity reduction [3][16]. Specific Varieties - Steel: The macro sentiment is volatile, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The spot market trading is generally weak, and the market sentiment has deteriorated. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro policy disturbances [8]. - Iron ore: The molten iron output has decreased significantly, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The spot price has weakened. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not large. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - Scrap steel: The arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the price is oscillating. The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand is temporarily tightened. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to increase, and coal mines continue to reduce inventory. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [13]. - Glass: Manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase and the sales situation. If the sales are weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. - Soda ash: After the supply recovery, manufacturers have returned to the inventory accumulation state. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center of gravity will move down [16]. - Manganese silicon: The driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic [17]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand relationship is still loose, and there is pressure above the futures price. The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the price in the short term, but the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose [18]. Related Indexes - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.57% to 2250.38, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52% to 2544.78, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87% to 2246.75 [99]. - The steel industry chain index on October 30, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.68%, a 5 - day increase of 2.52%, a 1 - month decline of 0.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.96% [101].

Overview - The recent trend in gold and silver prices shows a slowdown in the downward movement, with prices stabilizing near early October levels, indicating a shift towards a more rational market sentiment [1] Core Influencing Factors - Progress in US-China trade talks has reduced safe-haven demand, as both sides reached a basic consensus on key economic issues, leading to decreased concerns over geopolitical risks and increased selling pressure on gold and silver [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% reflects a risk management approach, with internal divisions on future rate cuts, contributing to a stronger US dollar and lower gold and silver prices [3][4] Market Dynamics and Outlook - Gold and silver price fluctuations are primarily driven by policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and market sentiment, with recent easing of previously supportive factors leading to price adjustments [5] - The ongoing uncertainty in global economic and geopolitical landscapes may continue to impact gold and silver prices in the short term, while the Fed's rate cut cycle and existing supply-demand gaps provide long-term support [5] - Central bank gold purchasing trends are crucial; a reported increase of 28% in global central bank gold purchases in Q3 2025 could bolster market sentiment and limit price adjustments [6]

Report 1: Steel Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market has neutral supply - demand with no prominent contradictions. The future trend of the black market depends on the coking coal supply. With prices rising to the upper limit of the range, the game intensifies. For long positions, attention should be paid to the previous high - pressure levels (3200 yuan for rebar and 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils) and appropriate reduction of positions can be considered. Also, pay attention to the coking coal supply. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can be held [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 01 contract rose from 3091 to 3133 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract rose from 3316 to 3358 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan to 3000 yuan, while plate billet price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. Profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different changes, with some decreasing [2]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.0 to 239.9, a decline of 0.4%. The output of five major steel products increased by 8.4 to 865.3, a rise of 1.0%. Rebar and hot - rolled coil production also increased, with rebar production rising by 5.9 to 207.1 (a 2.9% increase) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 27.4 to 1554.9, a decline of 1.7%. Rebar inventory decreased by 18.9 to 622.1 (a 3.0% decrease), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 4.3 to 414.9 (a 1.0% decrease) [2]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 1.1 to 11.5, a rise of 10.7%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 17.3 to 892.7, a rise of 2.0%. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also increased [2]. Report 2: Iron Ore Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore futures reached the peak and then declined. Although the macro situation is slightly positive after the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the decline in pig iron output still suppresses iron ore. After several days of rebound, the driving force of iron ore weakens. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see, with the reference range of 760 - 830. The iron ore 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of some iron ore varieties decreased, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 6.6 to 844.0, a decline of 0.8%. Some basis values and spreads also changed [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port decreased, like Carajás fines decreased by 6.0 to 920.0, a decline of 0.6%. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Jinshi 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 490.3 to 2029.1, a decline of 19.5%, while the global shipping volume increased by 54.9 to 3388.4, a rise of 1.6%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6, a rise of 10.6% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 23.8 to 312.7, a decline of 7.1%. The national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 12.4 to 14311.15, a decline of 0.8%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 96.5 to 9079.2, a rise of 1.1% [4]. Report 3: Coke Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view in the fourth quarter. For speculation, it is recommended to go long on coke 2601 at low levels, with the reference range of 1700 - 1850. For coking coal, it is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 at low levels, with the reference range of 1200 - 1350. The long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage can be carried out, but pay attention to risks [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Some coke prices showed different changes. For example, the 01 contract of coke decreased by 15 to 1787, a decline of 0.8%. The basis values also changed [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of some coking coal varieties increased, such as Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 36 to 1380, a rise of 2.7%. The 01 contract of coking coal decreased by 14 to 1288, a decline of 1.1% [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 46.2, a rise of 0.2%. The output of some coking coal mines increased slightly [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4, a decline of 1.5%. The demand for coke is affected by the decline in pig iron output [7]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory: The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0, a rise of 0.9%. Steel mills reduced inventory, while coking plants and ports increased inventory. Coking coal inventory: Some inventories increased, while some decreased, with the overall inventory slightly decreasing [7].

2025 年 10 月 31 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：49 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 49 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：户外运动、光刻胶、储能 1、户外运动主题：国家发展改革委等六部门发布通知，拟将 "北京市平谷区金海湖户外运动目的地"等 49 个地区纳入首 批高质量户外运动目的地建设名单，予以重点支持。此次建 设并非试点示范或挂牌命名，而是聚焦资源禀赋好、基础扎 实的区域，精准配套政策、资金、项目，打造标杆、以点带 面，带动全国户外运动产业提质升级，进一步满足人民群众 多层次、多样化的户外运动和美好生活需要。相关标的：三 夫户外(002780)、影石创新(688775) 2、光刻胶主题：据科技日报，近日，北京大学化学与分子工 程学院彭海琳教授团队及合 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations, remaining at a relatively high level overall with temporarily low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of demand changes on market sentiment, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated violently. In the spot market, it was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds, and some regional coke enterprises planned a third round of hikes [3] Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen regions shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai region shut down for goaf treatment, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 billion tons, a decline of 3.8%. In August and September, the monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal was around 6 billion tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. In October, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 12.8 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons from September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports in October will decline, and the annual import volume may be the same as last year [3] Demand Side - Demand is in the transition stage from peak season to off - season. Steel mills' profits have further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output has slightly decreased to 23.99 million tons. As the peak demand season nears its end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "oscillating", including PX, PTA, short - fiber, methanol, urea, LLDPE, PP, PL, PVC, and caustic soda. Some are rated as "oscillating weakly", such as crude oil, pure benzene, and styrene. Others are rated as "oscillating downward", like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil [9][17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical support for crude oil shows signs of weakening. If there is no further reduction in supply, oil prices will return to a weak supply - demand situation. The chemical sector is waiting for more guidance. The bullish power of styrene is gradually brewing, but it still faces pressure from high inventory and new installations. The strong pattern of PTA may change after the meeting of the Price Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Overall, the energy and chemical industry is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term, waiting for the geopolitical situation to calm down [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about Russian oil supply have eased, and the spot market for Middle Eastern crude oil has weakened. The marginal geopolitical risk has decreased. The API data shows a decline in US crude oil inventories last week, but the overseas supply pressure still persists. If geopolitical concerns continue to ease, oil prices will return to a weak state [9] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, asphalt may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November, Saudi Arabia has lowered the export premium to Asia, and the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended. After the sharp rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, which may put pressure on asphalt futures prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the over - valuation premium of asphalt is starting to fall [9][10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: As crude oil prices fall, fuel oil may be pressured to decline. - **Main Logic**: After the rise in oil prices, the market is evaluating the situation, and oil prices have fallen, driving fuel oil prices down. Although the Israel - Palestine conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, and the demand for fuel oil is still weak [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates and rises following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. It is affected by factors such as sanctions on Russia, and its fundamentals face challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy [12] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas disturbances will increase after November, and methanol is viewed with oscillation. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the methanol futures price oscillated and declined. The high port inventory still has a suppressing effect in the short term, but considering the high probability of Iranian disturbances approaching winter, methanol still has value for low - buying [29] Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has ebbed, and it is viewed with continuous pressure. - **Main Logic**: On October 28, the market sentiment weakened, and the spot downstream transactions were cautious. Urea returned to the fundamental situation and is expected to oscillate and consolidate [30] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sentiment of related varieties, but the fundamentals are under pressure and the elasticity is limited. - **Main Logic**: The cost side oscillates without a clear direction. The supply of coal - based MEG is high, and the supply pressure in November is still large, leading to a significant inventory build - up from November to December [20] PX - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fermentation and cost game, pay attention to the conference resolution. - **Main Logic**: The concern about Russian oil supply has eased, and the medium - and long - term oil prices still face surplus pressure, causing the cost support to be insufficient in the short term. The PX supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, and the bottom support of PXN has increased. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [13][14] PTA - **Viewpoint**: The cost has fallen and failed to resonate with the sentiment. Pay attention to the subsequent situation of the conference. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is insufficient in the short term due to the easing of concerns about Russian oil supply. The downstream production and sales have turned cold. The PTA price is expected to oscillate under the game between cost and the fermentation of the conference news [14][16] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the upstream sentiment fermentation, and there is no pressure on its own inventory. - **Main Logic**: After the slowdown in price increase, the production and sales of polyester short - fiber have become dull. The downstream demand is weak, and the cost support is disturbed. The price is expected to be sorted out within the range in the short term [24][25] Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The cost support has weakened, pay attention to the conference results. - **Main Logic**: The market is digesting the impact of anti - involution on upstream polyester raw materials. The oil price has turned down again, and the polyester bottle - chip price is expected to oscillate following the cost in the short term [26] Propylene and PP - **Viewpoint**: The spread between propylene and PP continues to fluctuate in the range of 500 - 550, and PL oscillates. PP is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The fundamentals of PP support are limited, and the inventory is at a high level. The PL price oscillates, and the spread between PP and PL fluctuates around 500 [33][34] Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: The cost - side support confronts the supply - demand pressure, and plastic is viewed within a range. - **Main Logic**: The oil price rebounds, and the supply - side situation of Russian oil is difficult to verify. The plastic's own fundamentals support is limited, and the profit support is also limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [32] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: There is a lack of positive driving factors, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: Styrene has followed the decline in oil prices and then rebounded, but the rebound is weak. It is affected by factors such as new installations and weak downstream follow - up [18][19] PVC - **Viewpoint**: It has low valuation and weak expectations, and PVC oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure. The production will increase, the downstream demand is only released at low prices, and the export is affected by anti - dumping [36] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price stabilizes, and the futures price oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The macro - level sentiment has improved, but the upstream production is high. The demand elasticity of caustic soda is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [37] 4. Summary of Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2242.59, down 0.90%; the commodity 20 index was 2532.38, down 1.19%; the industrial products index was 2238.86, down 0.64% [285] - **Energy Index**: On October 28, 2025, the energy index was 1168.84, with a daily decline of 0.85%, a 5 - day increase of 3.52%, a 1 - month decline of 2.56%, and a year - to - date decline of 4.81% [287]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of maintaining rational optimism in investment, especially during market fluctuations [1][2][3] - Historical trends in the A-share market indicate that rational investors often find valuable opportunities during extreme market conditions, leading to significant returns [3] - The investment philosophy suggests that understanding economic principles, industry trends, and company valuations is crucial for long-term success [3] Group 2 - The article highlights that successful investors are distinguished by their ability to see opportunities in crises and maintain composure during market exuberance [3] - It notes that the sentiment in the market oscillates between excessive optimism and pessimism, but ultimately, stock prices are driven by the intrinsic value of companies [2][3] - The narrative reinforces that a cautious yet optimistic approach, grounded in solid fundamental analysis, is essential for achieving long-term investment success [2][3]