Group 1 - The "Spring Market" is gradually unfolding, with both internal and external environments showing positive changes, including favorable macroeconomic conditions and supportive policies [2][3] - The report suggests that the focus for investment should be on growth sectors, particularly those related to the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to attract significant capital [3][4] - Key investment directions for January include AI industry chains, emerging industries, and cyclical price increases in industrial metals and chemicals [6][7] Group 2 - The report highlights specific companies as top investment picks, including North China Innovation (机械), Maiwei Co., Ltd. (机械), Wanhua Chemical (能源化工), Chipbond Technology (电子), Ping An Insurance (非银), Zijin Mining (煤炭有色钢铁), Giant Network (传媒互联网), AVIC High-Tech (军工), Sanhua Intelligent Control (电新), and Kaiter (北交所) [7][11] - North China Innovation is expected to benefit from increased domestic equipment adoption and the expansion of storage and AI chip production [14][20] - Maiwei Co., Ltd. is positioned to capitalize on the U.S. solar expansion due to a significant gap in battery production capacity [23][30] - Wanhua Chemical is projected to strengthen its market position in MDI and TDI, with expected price increases due to supply constraints [33][35] - Chipbond Technology is set to benefit from the growing demand for PCB and semiconductor equipment driven by AI [41][42] - Ping An Insurance is anticipated to maintain strong growth in new business value (NBV) and dividend yield, supported by its insurance operations [45][46] - Zijin Mining is expected to see price increases in gold and copper, with a clear growth path in production [49][50] - Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group" is expected to show significant potential for long-term growth and profitability [56][57] - AVIC High-Tech is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for aerospace composite materials as the C919 enters mass production [58][59] - Sanhua Intelligent Control is expected to see growth from its involvement in Tesla's supply chain and the increasing demand for cooling solutions in data centers and energy storage [65][66] - Kaiter is projected to benefit from the automotive electronics sector and its expansion into robotics and liquid cooling markets [72][78]

早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 1月2日，美股三大指数集体高开，道琼斯指数涨0.19%，标普500指数涨0.58%，纳斯达克综合指数涨 1.03%。费城半导体指数大幅高开，阿斯麦涨超7%，盘中创历史新高；美光科技涨近6%；AMD涨超 4%。 中概股集体大涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数暴涨4%，百度涨11.35%，富途控股涨6.84%，哔哩哔哩涨 6.87%，网易涨6.77%，老虎证券涨5.54%，36氪涨4.85%，房多多涨4.79%，蔚来涨4.64%，阿里巴巴涨 4.55%，霸王茶姬涨4.47%，腾讯控股ADR涨4.30%，新东方涨4.15%，微博涨3.82%，爱奇艺涨3.39%， 理想汽车涨3.01%，高途涨3.02%，贝壳涨2.79%，迅雷涨2.82%，京东涨2.34%。 截至收盘，美股三大指数涨跌不一，纳指高开低走，收跌0.03%，标普500指数微涨0.19%，道指涨 0.66%。明星科技股表现分化，阿斯麦涨近9%，美光科技涨超10%，二者股价均创历史新高。AMD涨 超4%，英伟达涨超1%，谷歌微涨；特斯拉、微软跌超2%，亚马逊跌近2%，Meta跌超1%，苹果微跌。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨4.38%，本周累 ...

Market Overview - In December 2025, the A-share market exhibited a "high-level fluctuation and structural switching" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 4.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.93% [8][13][45] - The market sentiment improved significantly towards the end of December, with the Shanghai Index achieving eleven consecutive gains, driven by easing concerns over AI bubbles and favorable policy expectations for 2026 [8][45] Economic Environment Analysis - Global economic indicators showed signs of stabilization but with a slowdown, as evidenced by the marginal decline in the US and Eurozone PMI indices [19][39] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December marked the third reduction of the year, with expectations for a slower pace of future cuts in 2026 due to internal divisions within the FOMC [20][44] - Domestic economic indicators reflected weak internal growth momentum, with November's industrial value-added growth at 4.8% and fixed asset investment declining by 2.6% year-on-year [21][25] Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for 2026, emphasizing a more proactive macroeconomic policy aimed at enhancing growth and addressing risks [29][33] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply was reiterated, with a commitment to maintaining a fiscal deficit rate around 4% to support economic stability and transformation [31][32] Sector Allocation - Recommendations for sector allocation in January include overweighting mechanical equipment, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), electric power equipment, and non-ferrous metals [46] - The mechanical equipment sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in robotics and infrastructure projects, while the TMT sector may see growth driven by rising raw material prices and technological advancements [46][48]

A500ETF南方(159352)紧密跟踪的中证A500指数。中证A500指数被誉为"中国新质生产力风向标"，以革 新编制逻辑突破传统：通过"三级行业龙头优先+ESG负面剔除"机制，覆盖约90个三级行业，同时汇聚 千亿巨头及百亿成长龙头，实现行业与市值双平衡。指数深度绑定国家战略产业，全面配置信息技术、 高端制造、医药等新质生产力领域，为投资者提供分享经济转型红利、分散风险的优质载体。 中证A500指数指数前十大权重股分别为宁德时代、贵州茅台、中国平安、招商银行、紫金矿业、中际 旭创、美的集团、兴业银行、新易盛、长江电力。 华金证券分析指出，当前来看，明年1月春季行情可能延续，A股可能震荡偏强。（1）明年1月积极的 政策预期可能上升，外部风险可能有限。一是明年1月积极的政策可能进一步出台和落实：首先，明年1 月更多的省级"十五五"规划建议可能发布；其次，提振消费的政策也可能出台和落实；最后，岁末年初 流动性宽松的政策可能进一步实施。二是明年1月外部风险可能相对有限：首先，明年1月全球央行可能 进一步宽松；其次，明年1月双边关系可能维持平稳。（2）明年1月流动性可能进一步宽松。一是宏观 流动性可能进一步宽松：首 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) reaching a new high since its listing, driven by significant capital inflows and positive market sentiment [1] - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic trends, with three main themes projected to influence commodity fluctuations by 2026: green inflation, anti-involution, and a rate-cutting cycle [1] - Analysts remain optimistic about the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is likely to continue until 2026, depending on the recovery of the US dollar credit, strategic reserve progress, and the effectiveness of anti-involution policies [1] Group 2 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a diversified investment option compared to single metal investments [2] - As of December 30, the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) has a total size of 835 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index among three similar products in the market [2]

2025 年 12 月 31 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【策略】关注春季行情——2026 年 1 月 A 股及港股月度金股组合 2026 年 1 月 A 股金股组合：顺络电子、中际旭创、新易盛、中芯国际、中国石油、 中国石化、海尔智家、工商银行、紫金矿业、上海临港。 2026 年 1 月港股金股组合： 阿里巴巴-W、腾讯控股、中芯国际、华虹半导体、越疆、金风科技。 【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局——南 向资金跟踪 南向资金规模与配置节奏显著加速，已成为港股流动性与定价的重要支撑。资金由情 绪与套利驱动转向以基本面为核心的长期配置，在行业轮动与估值形成中逐步扮演 "定价锚"角色。结构上，行业配置由金融地产主导演进为"金融+科技+消费"的多 元格局。2025 年以来，南向资金呈现"核心配置稳固、边际行业灵活轮动"的特征， 个股上增量集中于优质龙头，总体看对港股中长期定价权持续提升。 行业研究 | | A 股市场 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | 3965.12 | 0.00 | | 沪深 300 ...

投资心语 十连阳≠普涨 春季行情这样布局 各位投资者朋友： 昨天（12月30日）收盘后，沪指"十连阳"的消息刷屏市场，不少投资者望着红彤彤的指数，内心却难有 太多喜悦——盘面之下藏着另一面：低开高走的"假阳线"，以及超过3400只个股悄然下跌。一边是机器 人概念的涨停潮，一边是手中持仓的黯然调整，这般反差，想必让不少人倍感困惑与纠结：这连阳该追 还是减仓？春季行情还值得期待吗？ PART.01 十连阳的真相：不是普涨，而是少数赛道的"抱团" 小编想说，不必被"十连阳"的纪录裹挟，这并非全面牛市的信号，更像是一场结构性的局部行情。指数 能稳步走阳，核心是三重力量的支撑：央行释放稳市场信号、持续提供流动性补给，叠加人民币升值缓 解外资流出压力，多重利好推动权重股稳步上行，撑起了指数的稳健表象。 但身处市场的我们都清楚，指数的光鲜难以覆盖多数个股的疲态。昨日的"冰火两重天"，正是当前市场 的真实缩影：热门赛道个股涨幅凌厉，多数中小盘股却陷入调整。这本质并非市场增量资金全面进场后 的普涨，而是资金向少数政策支持、趋势明确的赛道集中"提前布局"，是存量博弈下的分化格局，也是 普通投资者需认清的核心现实。 来源：国金证券 ...

查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 （张宇生/王国兴） 2025-12-30 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【金工】核心稳固，边际灵活：增量加速与定价权提升下的南向资金配置格局 ——南向资金跟踪 南向资金规模与配置节奏显著加速，已成为港股流动性与定价的重要支撑。资金由情绪与套利驱动转向以基本 面为核心的长期配置，在行业轮动与估值形成中逐步扮演"定价锚"角色。结构上，行业配置由金融地产主导演 进为"金融+科技+消费"的多元格局。2025年以来，南向资金呈现"核心配置稳固、边际行业灵活轮动"的特征， 个股上增量集中于优质龙头，总体看对港股中长期定价权持续提升。 （祁嫣然/陈颖）2025-12-30 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 【策略】关注春季行情——2026年1月A股及港股月度金股组 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the non-bank financial sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent appreciation of the Renminbi, which has surpassed the 7.0 mark against the US dollar, enhancing the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [8]. - The central economic work conference has set a positive tone for the market, with expectations for continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, potentially leading to interest rate cuts in 2026 [8]. - The report emphasizes the acceleration of mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, suggesting a shift towards a new structure that favors stronger leading firms and specialized development for smaller firms [8]. - The introduction of new disclosure regulations for asset management products in the insurance sector is expected to increase compliance costs in the short term but will enhance investor trust and reduce compliance risks in the long run [36][38]. Summary by Sections Securities Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report notes that the China Securities Association has strengthened the pressure testing system for securities firms, which is expected to enhance risk management and stability in the capital market [14]. - The report indicates that the total trading volume in the A-share market reached 7,085.41 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 11.45 trillion yuan, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 6.22% in average daily trading volume [17]. - The report also mentions that the balance of margin financing and securities lending reached 2.54 trillion yuan, up 1.58% from the previous week [17]. Insurance Business Overview and Weekly Review - The report discusses the new information disclosure regulations for bank and insurance asset management products, which aim to standardize disclosure practices and enhance investor protection [36][37]. - The report highlights that the new regulations will create a comprehensive disclosure framework, improving transparency and compliance in the insurance asset management sector [38]. Market Liquidity Tracking - The report provides insights into the liquidity situation, noting a net withdrawal of 948 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations during the week [41]. - It also mentions that the issuance of interbank certificates of deposit totaled 5,532.30 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 3,289.70 billion yuan [41].

Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The report discusses potential issues to watch in the spring market of 2025, including whether there will be a significant drop in A-shares similar to previous years and the timing of the spring rally in relation to mandatory annual report disclosures [3][4] - Current economic recovery is still fragile, making a policy shift unlikely, and the market sentiment remains positive with the Shanghai Composite Index showing resilience near the 3800 support level [4][5] - The report indicates that sectors that performed well before the spring rally tend to maintain their momentum, with a 60-70% probability of continuation in the early stages of the rally [5] Group 2: AI Chip Market Dynamics - The report highlights Nvidia's conditional reopening of H200 chip exports to China, which is primarily aimed at inventory clearance and regaining market share lost due to previous bans [7][8] - Major Chinese tech companies are rapidly procuring H200 chips, with Alibaba planning to purchase 40,000 to 50,000 units, indicating a strong demand for high-end computing power [9][10] - The report suggests that while the H200 chip can meet some high-end demands in China, it may delay the progress of domestic AI chip development, reinforcing the need for self-sufficiency in technology [8][12] Group 3: Chemical Industry Insights - The report notes an increase in the National Chemical Industry Prosperity Index, indicating a positive outlook for the chemical sector, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions that may accelerate the replacement of Japanese semiconductor materials [15][18] - The report emphasizes the potential for high dividend yields in the chemical sector as capacity expansion slows globally, with a focus on companies that can leverage their cash flow effectively [18][22] - The report identifies specific opportunities in the chemical industry, including low-cost expansion and sectors with improving profitability, such as chromium salts and phosphates [19][20] Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Movements - The report indicates a significant net inflow into the CSI A500 ETF, with a total inflow of 493.24 billion yuan, reflecting a recovery in stock market funding demand [44][45] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a balanced funding environment, with the central bank's operations resulting in a net injection of 652 billion yuan into the market [44] - The report suggests that the securities industry is likely to benefit from a slow bull market, with various brokerage services expected to perform well under favorable conditions [47][48]