Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market participants are speculating on the peak time of freight rates, with attention on the quotes for the second half of July to be released next week [1] - The supply and demand in the US route have both increased, with supply recovering rapidly and freight rates in the East and West US dropping from their highs [2] - There is a possibility that the freight rates in the first half of July have already reached their peak, and the August contract is in a game over the specific peak - time [5] - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and a long - December, short - October arbitrage [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 27, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 90,944 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,657 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1317.40, 1160.20, 1885.90, 1759.90, 1325.60, and 1489.10 respectively [7] - The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4] 2. Spot Price - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different alliances have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the second week of July decreased compared to the previous period, and some alliances' prices for the second half of July are higher than the first half [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, the freight rates have dropped significantly. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the first half of July decreased from 4296/5360 in the first half of June to 1478/2110, and the Shanghai - New York price decreased from 6410 dollars/FEU to 4100 dollars/FEU [2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In July, the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port route is 273,800 TEU, and in August, it is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July [3] - As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. Among them, 38 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU and 6 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the oil price and shipping situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed has been basically eliminated, with a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [2][3] 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2] - The relationship between the EU's industrial production index, import from China, consumer confidence index, retail sales, and China's export to the EU may affect the shipping demand [73 - 89]

黑色金属数据日报 | 2025/06/19 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月18日 | 2978. 00 | 3100.00 | 670. 50 | 1403.00 | 815. 50 | | | 涨跌值 | 1.00 | 10.00 | 0. 00 | 15.00 | 5.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.03 7 | 0. 32 | 0.00 | 1.08 | 0.62 | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) | R ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand of lithium carbonate remains in excess, but the warehouse receipts have been continuously decreasing recently. Attention should be paid to the downstream's willingness to accept warehouse receipts after the 07 contract warehouse receipts are cancelled, and there may be some short - term games. The fundamental situation is weak, and there is a possibility of a decline in the consumer side in the future. Hedging opportunities brought by delivery games can be focused on, and upstream enterprises can choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On June 17, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2509 opened at 59,720 yuan/ton and closed at 59,860 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 0.2% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 181,606 lots, and the open interest was 307,335 lots, an increase of 6,913 lots from the previous trading day. The total open interest of all contracts was 612,829 lots, a decrease of 2,770 lots from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of contracts decreased by 92,035 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the overall speculation degree was 0.44. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 31,713 lots, a decrease of 330 lots from the previous day. The futures price was at a discount of 590 yuan/ton to the spot price of electric carbon [1]. - According to SMM data, on June 17, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 59,900 - 61,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 58,350 - 59,350 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - In terms of inventory, the spot inventory was 133,500 tons, including 57,700 tons in smelter inventory, 40,700 tons in downstream inventory, and 35,200 tons in other inventories [1]. Strategy - Fundamental situation is weak, and there is a possibility of a decline in the consumer side. Hedging opportunities brought by delivery games can be focused on, and upstream enterprises can choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices. For unilateral trading, sell and hedge at high prices; for inter - period trading, no strategy; for cross - variety trading, no strategy; for spot - futures trading, no strategy; for options trading, no strategy [1][2]

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/06/17 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 玻璃：供应端整体保持低位波动状态不变；价格低位，冷修预期将增强 纯碱：5月-6月厂家检修逐步兑现；出口超预期，缓解国内过剩压力 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1100 | 29.21% | 78.7% | | 纯碱 | 1000-1250 | 21.17% | 20.3% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表2 | | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 璃 | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失 ...

Core Viewpoint - The low inventory levels in the asphalt market have prompted traders to utilize futures tools for risk management, indicating a bullish market outlook despite low production and demand constraints [1][2]. Inventory Levels - As of December 2024, winter storage of asphalt is at 850,000 tons, marking a multi-year low. Both social and factory inventories remain at historically low levels, limiting production release due to low profit margins and operating rates [2]. - The winter storage price of 3,420 CNY/ton is aligned with the cost price of 3,450 CNY/ton for resources in Q1 2025, suggesting limited downside for prices unless there is a significant drop in crude oil prices [2]. Price Comparison and Valuation - The current valuation of asphalt futures relative to Brent crude oil is at 0.9, which is considered reasonable based on historical low inventory scenarios from 2018 and 2022 [2]. - The basis for buying hedges was 50 CNY/ton, with historical data indicating that even during low inventory periods, the basis could fall below -200 CNY/ton in Q1 [2]. Trading Operations - On December 12, 2024, a company bought 2,000 contracts of March asphalt futures at 3,510 CNY/ton, with a current spot price of 3,560 CNY/ton, resulting in a basis of 50 CNY/ton [3]. - By early February 2025, the basis weakened to -197 CNY/ton, with futures rising to 3,797 CNY/ton and spot prices increasing to 3,600 CNY/ton. The company closed its futures position and procured products from the spot market [3][4]. Profit and Loss Analysis - The company realized a profit of 5,740,000 CNY from the futures market, while incurring a loss of 800,000 CNY from the spot market, effectively covering the losses with the gains from the futures [3][4]. Significance - The company's strategic market analysis and strong operational capabilities in the futures market allowed it to mitigate price risks, enhance competitiveness, and stabilize operations, serving as a valuable reference for the asphalt industry and beyond [5].

Core Insights - The demand for hedging tools among enterprises has significantly increased in the first five months of 2025 due to rising geopolitical tensions and shrinking export orders, leading to a greater awareness of risk management among companies [1][2] Group 1: Hedging Demand and Trends - From January to May 2025, the demand for hedging solutions from clients of Guangfa Futures has notably risen, reflecting a shift in risk management strategies among enterprises [1] - Three new trends in hedging demand have emerged: transitioning from single commodity hedging to industry chain hedging, upgrading from passive risk management to proactive pricing, and a rapid penetration of hedging tools among small and medium-sized enterprises [1][2] Group 2: Innovative Hedging Models - Guangfa Futures has successfully assisted a rubber import-export company in adopting a pricing model based on the futures price of No. 20 rubber, resulting in a total trade volume exceeding 8,000 tons [2] - The "insurance + futures" model has been implemented in the peanut farming sector in Henan, providing price protection for over 6,000 farmers and covering nearly 20,000 tons of peanuts [2] Group 3: Challenges in Utilizing Futures - Enterprises face five main challenges in utilizing futures tools: insufficient professional capacity, funding constraints, limited market coverage of futures products, inadequate understanding of basis risk, and uneven distribution of delivery warehouses [3][4] - Many enterprises still have misconceptions about the futures market, leading to low participation rates in risk management through futures and derivatives [4] Group 4: Expectations from the Futures Industry - Enterprises expect the industry to enhance specialized service offerings, reduce market participation costs, accelerate product and tool innovation, and assist in optimizing delivery warehouse layouts [3][4] - Guangfa Futures aims to provide customized risk management services to small and medium-sized enterprises, covering various commodities and offering comprehensive support in supply chain finance [4][5] Group 5: Educational Initiatives - To improve understanding and utilization of futures tools, Guangfa Futures is focusing on creating a layered educational content system, innovative educational formats, and a collaborative educational ecosystem [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core View - Polypropylene (PP) is greatly affected by the macro - situation, including Sino - US negotiations and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, bringing significant uncertainty to the market. However, the fundamentals of PP have changed little recently. With increasing supply pressure and weak demand, the upside potential of PP is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The monthly price range of PP is predicted to be between 6,800 and 7,100 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 9.69%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 12.0% [1]. 3.2 Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2509 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 7,050 - 7,100 yuan, and sell PP2509C7000 call options with a 50% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2509 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 6,800 - 6,900 yuan, and sell PP2509P6900 put options with a 75% hedging ratio at 50 - 100 yuan [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - The macro - situation has a great impact on polyolefins. The supply of PP is under pressure due to reduced planned maintenance and upcoming new device launches. The demand is weak as it is the traditional off - season for downstream orders and the downstream profit is poor this year [2]. 3.4 Bullish Factors - Current device maintenance is at a high level, leading to a marginal reduction in supply. - The current market is at a low level, limiting the downside space. - Tensions in the Middle East may drive up oil prices, supporting polyolefins [3]. 3.5 Bearish Factors - Yulong Line 2 was launched during the Dragon Boat Festival, and multiple devices will be launched from June to August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. - The seasonal peak of exports has passed, and subsequent exports are expected to decline. - It is the off - season for downstream sales, and domestic demand is weak due to poor overall profits this year [4]. 3.6 Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the PP01 contract was 6,918 yuan/ton, the PP05 contract was 6,909 yuan/ton, and the PP09 contract was 6,969 yuan/ton. There were corresponding daily and weekly changes in these contracts and their spreads [5][7]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On June 12, 2025, the spot price in North China was 6,975 yuan/ton, in East China was 7,140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,195 yuan/ton. There were also changes in regional spreads [7]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: There were changes in the spreads between different non - standard and standard PP products, such as the spread between homopolymer injection molding and wire drawing [7]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price was 69 dollars/barrel, the US propane price was 543.032 dollars/ton, etc. There were different profit situations for various PP production methods, such as oil - based, coal - based, etc. [7].

Group 1 - The current supply-demand situation in the pig market shows a high enthusiasm for pig sales from the breeding end, while demand remains weak, prompting the government to initiate pork reserve storage [1][2] - The National Pork Reserve policy serves as an important tool in stabilizing supply and prices in the pig industry, with the recent storage action being the first significant one this year [1][2] - The average price of external three yuan pigs as of June 10 was 14.01 yuan/kg, reflecting a decline of approximately 0.8 yuan/kg since the May Day holiday, indicating a weak price trend due to supply-demand imbalance [3][4] Group 2 - The government initiated temporary pork reserve storage due to continuous declines in pig prices and shrinking breeding profits, with the pig-to-grain ratio indicating a need for intervention [2][4] - The current breeding profit per pig is estimated at 80.10 yuan, a significant drop from over 400 yuan in the same period last year, highlighting the financial pressure on large pig enterprises and the impact on small breeders [4][5] - The "insurance + futures" projects have been implemented to support small breeders, with 17 projects launched this year, safeguarding 250,000 pigs against market price fluctuations [5]

Report Overview - Report Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Report Core View: The current PE market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply side is in a centralized maintenance season, but the high - capacity growth still leads to an overall supply increase. The demand side is affected by low - profit environments and the off - season, with no obvious demand drivers. Attention should be paid to the conversion of full - density devices due to the high HD - LL spread [2]. Price Forecast - Monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 33.8% [1]. Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For producers with high product inventory worried about price drops: - Short 25% of L2509 plastic futures at 7100 - 7150 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [1]. - Sell 50% of L2509C7200 call options at a premium of 70 - 120 yuan/ton to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1]. Procurement Management - For buyers with low regular inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders: - Buy 50% of L2509 plastic futures at 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [1]. - Sell 75% of L2509P6900 put options at a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1]. Market Factors Bullish Factors - PE devices are in a seasonal maintenance period, and the centralized maintenance season is expected to last until July [3]. - The current futures price is at a relatively low level, with limited downward space [3]. - The high HDPE - LLDPE spread may lead to more conversions of full - density devices [3]. Bearish Factors - Multiple HDPE devices are planned to be put into operation in the middle of the year [7]. - The off - season of downstream production and sales and the low - profit environment have led to a decrease in domestic demand [7]. - Although the plastic spot has shown signs of price support recently, the overall trading volume is weak [7]. Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic Main Basis | 94 | 107 | 202 | - 13 | - 108 | yuan/ton | | L01 Contract | 7078 | 7050 | 6936 | 28 | 142 | yuan/ton | | L05 Contract | 7067 | 7036 | 6935 | 31 | 132 | yuan/ton | | L09 Contract | 7106 | 7078 | 6963 | 28 | 143 | yuan/ton | | L1 - 5 Month Spread | 11 | 14 | 1 | - 3 | 10 | yuan/ton | | L5 - 9 Month Spread | - 39 | - 42 | - 28 | 3 | - 11 | yuan/ton | | L9 - 1 Month Spread | - 28 | - 28 | - 27 | 0 | - 1 | yuan/ton | | L - P Spread | 165 | 146 | 79 | 19 | 86 | yuan/ton | [5][8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | North China | 7100 | 7030 | 7030 | 70 | 70 | yuan/ton | | East China | - | 7160 | 7190 | - 7160 | - 7190 | yuan/ton | | South China | 7270 | 7200 | 7170 | 70 | 100 | yuan/ton | | East - North Spread | - | 130 | 160 | - 130 | - 160 | yuan/ton | | East - South Spread | - | - 40 | 20 | 40 | - 20 | yuan/ton | [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | HDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 425 | 440 | 510 | - 15 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Hollow - LLDPE Film | 425 | 445 | 435 | - 20 | - 10 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Injection - LLDPE Film | 375 | 390 | 410 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Drawing - LLDPE Film | 675 | 690 | 720 | - 15 | - 45 | yuan/ton | | HDPE Pipe - LLDPE Film | 1500 | 1515 | 1535 | - 15 | - 35 | yuan/ton | | LDPE Film - LLDPE Film | 1975 | 1865 | 1910 | 110 | 65 | yuan/ton | [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits | Indicator | 2025 - 06 - 10 | 2025 - 06 - 09 | 2025 - 06 - 03 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude Oil Price | 66 | 66 | 65.63 | 0 | 0.64 | dollars/barrel | | US Ethane Price | 0.2375 | 0.2371 | 0.2246 | 0.0004 | 0.0129 | dollars/gallon | | Northwest Coal Price | 470 | 470 | 470 | 0 | 0 | yuan/ton | | East China Methanol Price | 2430 | 2390 | 2320 | 40 | 110 | yuan/ton | | Oil - based PE Profit | - | 72 | 96 | - 71.5591 | - 95.8048 | yuan/ton | | Coal - based PE Profit | 783 | 768 | 716 | 15 | 67.25 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Methanol - based PE Profit | 215 | 238 | 300 | - 22.5 | - 85 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethane - based PE Profit | 1563 | 1547 | 1683.3354 | 15.8011 | - 120.0517 | yuan/ton | | Purchased Ethylene - based PE Profit | - | - 166 | - 191.8836 | 166.0898 | 191.8836 | yuan/ton | [8]

Core Viewpoint - The integration of basis pricing and futures hedging in the fertilizer industry effectively addresses supply chain challenges, stabilizes prices, and enhances risk management for agricultural stakeholders [11]. Industry Background - Since the implementation of supply-side structural reforms in 2015/2016, China's coal chemical urea production capacity has gradually decreased. The urea market saw a turning point in 2018 due to increased agricultural fertilizer demand driven by national food security strategies and rising industrial consumption from the real estate sector [6]. - The international situation, including trade frictions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has disrupted global fertilizer supply chains, leading to a peak domestic urea price of 3000 yuan/ton in 2022. This volatility has placed significant operational pressure on agricultural end-users due to delayed cost transmission [6]. Market Dynamics - The traditional trading model in China's agricultural input circulation system is dominated by a "buy low, sell high" strategy, which compresses procurement cycles and exacerbates market volatility. Retailers at the end of the supply chain often lack bargaining power, resulting in lower profit margins compared to provincial distributors [7]. - Approximately 18% of agricultural input trade volume has begun to adopt basis pricing models, but the penetration of futures tools remains limited due to farmers' lack of awareness [7]. Case Study - A company in Jiangsu experienced a decline in large granular urea prices from 1980 yuan/ton to 1600 yuan/ton over two months. As demand weakened near the Spring Festival, the company utilized a basis pricing model to sell approximately 4500 tons of urea, successfully alleviating inventory pressure and managing price declines [9]. Recommendations - To effectively implement basis pricing models, three support systems need to be established: a hedging accounting system and futures coordination management at the enterprise level, risk-sharing contract structures at the cooperative level, and enhanced risk management education for farmers [10]. Conclusion - The "basis pricing + futures hedging + forward orders" model addresses supply-demand bottlenecks in the urea industry, securing reasonable profits for upstream companies, mitigating price volatility for downstream traders, and ensuring low-cost fertilizer access for farmers, thereby contributing to national food security [11].