Report Summary 1) Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views - PX: The commodity market is weakening, and PX long - positions are being reduced. Suggest going long PX and short PTA01 contracts, and shorting PXN on rallies. The supply is marginally decreasing, but the cost side is strengthening, so PXN should be shorted on highs [1][8]. - PTA: The trend is weak. Consider basis reverse arbitrage and focus on long - short positive arbitrage for the monthly spread. The supply pressure is increasing, and the basis remains suitable for reverse arbitrage. With potential changes in device operations in August, the 9 - 1 monthly spread positive arbitrage can be considered. The polyester start - up may bottom out in the short term, and the processing fee of the 01 contract is trending down [1][8][9]. - MEG: The unilateral trend is still weak. Consider basis positive arbitrage and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. Supply pressure from non - mainstream warehouse receipts is a concern. The port inventory is falling, but the monthly spread is weak due to delivery pressure. The spread between ethylene glycol and plastics/styrene is at a high level, so consider shorting ethylene glycol and going long L. The supply is relatively loose, and some ethylene oxide devices may switch to produce ethylene glycol [1][9][10]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - PX: Concerns about the lack of progress in Sino - US trade negotiations are increasing, pressuring the spot market. Supply tightness in August and September is expected to ease, and the PX - naphtha spread is weakening. The PX start - up rate in China is about 80.5%, and the PX price fell on July 31 [3][5]. - PTA: A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has a temporary shutdown, and some other devices have reduced loads. The PTA start - up rate is about 81.2%, and the capacity base has been adjusted to 8851.5 million tons since July 1, 2025 [5]. - MEG: A 300,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol device in Inner Mongolia has a temporary shutdown, and a 400,000 - ton/year device in Xinjiang has restarted. The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 69% (up 0.65% from the previous period), and the capacity base has been adjusted to 2917.5 million tons since June 1, 2025 [6]. - Polyester: Two polyester devices are under maintenance, and a new 300,000 - ton polyester device in Anhui has been put into production. The overall polyester load is fluctuating, and the start - up load of domestic polyester industrial yarn has dropped to about 67%. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang on July 31 were weak, and the average sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were 53% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PX, PTA, and MEG is - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6928 | 4808 | 4414 | 6464 | 531.3 | | Change | - 64 | - 48 | - 36 | - 36 | 2.7 | | Change rate | - 0.80% | - 0.99% | - 0.81% | - 0.55% | 0.51% | | Monthly spread (yesterday's closing price) | 64 | - 32 | - 27 | - 58 | 5.2 | | Monthly spread (change) | - 42 | - 34 | 1 | - 4 | - 1.9 | | Spot price (yesterday) | 859.33 (USD/ton) | 4826 (CNY/ton) | 4492 | 611 | 72.7 (USD/barrel) | | Spot price (change) | - 7 | - 32 | - 33 | 2.75 | - 0.85 | | Spot processing fee (yesterday) | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Spot processing fee (change) | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **PX**: Go long on PX and short on PTA01 contract, and short PXN on rallies. Cost end strengthens significantly, and there is a marginal decrease in supply. Consider a rolling positive spread arbitrage for the monthly spread [1][6]. - **PTA**: With the new device of Sanfangxiang gradually coming into operation, the supply pressure continues to increase. Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. The basis maintains a weak state, and continue the reverse spread operation for the basis. The monthly spread is approaching parity. Considering the reduced inventory accumulation in August due to the maintenance of multiple Yisheng Petrochemical devices, pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage for the 9 - 1 monthly spread [1][6]. - **MEG**: Conduct basis positive spread arbitrage and monthly spread reverse spread arbitrage. The market is concerned about the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is continuously decreasing, but the monthly spread remains weak due to the delivery pressure of the 09 contract. The trend of ethylene glycol is weak. Pay attention to the arbitrage of shorting ethylene glycol and going long on L. The supply is slightly loose, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has rebounded [1][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - **PX**: On the 30th, the PX price rose, with the end - of - session spot for September at 868/871 in negotiation and October at 860/864 in negotiation, but no transactions. A 1.34 - million - ton PX device in the Middle East has produced products recently and is currently increasing its load [3]. - **PTA**: A new 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently and is in product debugging. A 50,000 - ton IPA device in North China is restarting and is expected to produce products next week [3]. - **MEG**: On the 30th, the average daily price of MEG spot was 4,527 yuan/ton, and the average daily price of futures for the end of August was 4,528 yuan/ton. The average spot price in Ningbo market was 4,542 yuan/ton, and the average non - coal - based spot price in South China market was 4,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Polyester**: On the 30th, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang partially increased, with the average sales volume estimated at 6 - 70%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales volume of 43% as of 3:00 p.m [4][5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene is 0, the trend intensity of PTA is - 1, and the trend intensity of MEG is - 1 [5]. Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6,984 | 4,856 | 4,450 | 6,500 | 528.6 | | Change | 6,942 | 18 | - 17 | 0 | 13.6 | | Change Rate | 0.61% | 0.37% | - 0.38% | 0.00% | 2.64% | | Monthly Spread | PX9 - 1 | PTA9 - 1 | MEG9 - 1 | PF9 - 1 | SC9 - 10 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 106 | 2 | - 28 | - 54 | 7.1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | 108 | 6 | - 25 | - 32 | 6.6 | | Change | - 2 | - 4 | - 3 | - 22 | 0.5 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 866.33 | 4,858 | 4,525 | 608.25 | 73.56 | | Previous Day's Price | 857.33 | 4,830 | 4,518 | 589.25 | 71.48 | | Change | 9 | 28 | 7 | 19 | 2.08 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 292.5 | 192.67 | 84.81 | - 22.45 | - 6.01 | | Previous Day's Price | 279.55 | 198.31 | 115.62 | - 28.79 | - 6.01 | | Change | 12.96 | - 5.64 | - 30.82 | 6.34 | 0 | [2]

纯苯、苯乙烯周报 国泰君安期货研究所·黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周纯苯、苯乙烯观点：短期反内卷情绪高涨，实际影响有限，压缩EB利润 | | • | 反内卷：纯苯2005年以前产能326万吨，占比12%；加氢苯2005年以前产能74万吨，占比8%；苯乙烯2005年以前112万吨，占比5%。 | | --- | --- | --- | | | • | 纯苯国产：7月计划检修损失量9万吨左右（富海、福海创、浙石化、天津石化），8月检修损失量下滑至4万吨，9月计划检修量7万吨。 7-9月将集中迎来纯苯新装置投产。关注7月中海油大榭600万吨炼油、150万重整于7月21日投产，7月下京博100万吨轻烃裂解投产， | | | | 8月10日吉林石化100万吨乙烯裂解投产、8月底湖南石化100万吨重整投产，8月中下裕龙260万吨重整计划投产 | | 供应 | • | 纯苯进口：美国对海外持续征收关税以及美国国内下游装置重启，美国纯苯价格企稳反弹，U ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market has shifted from a volatile state to a stronger one. The positive domestic policies have led to a rotation and upward movement in the industrial product sector, and the optimistic sentiment is still being digested. For the current rebound of non - ferrous metals, it is regarded as a staged rebound. In operation, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term but avoid over - chasing the rise, and beware of the ebbing of sentiment. Also, continue to pay attention to the resonance between the supply - demand drivers of each variety and the macro - environment, as well as the trend changes of the leading varieties in this round of rise [11][12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector continued the general rebound trend from last weekend and showed stronger performance. Trade negotiations and tariff impacts were temporarily mitigated. The market focused on changes in interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data remained resilient, and the Fed's independent decision - making led to changes in interest - rate cut expectations. In China, policies to counter in - fighting were implemented, and measures to stabilize growth in key industrial sectors were expected. Major projects were initiated, driving the non - ferrous metals sector to follow the upward trend of new energy and black metals. Overseas, interest - rate cut expectations were still fluctuating, and trade negotiations were ongoing. Attention should be paid to trade - related information as August 1st approached [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Variety** - **Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been decreasing recently. The total supply this week is expected to be lower than last week, and downstream consumption is expected to increase. The Shanghai copper market is expected to have a situation of weak supply and strong demand, and there are conditions for the price to stop falling and rise. The support area is 77000 - 78000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 80000 - 82000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to buy on dips [3][13]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strengthened recently. The supply is expected to increase further, and the demand is mixed. The zinc market is expected to have a staged rebound. It is advisable to be bullish in the short - term and bearish on rallies in the medium - term. The support area is 21600 - 21800 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton [4][13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to be bullish. For the 09 contract, the support area is 20000 - 20200 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 21000 - 21200 yuan/ton. The alumina market is also expected to be bullish, with the 09 contract's support area at 2800 - 3000 yuan/ton and the pressure area at 3700 - 3900 yuan/ton. The cast aluminum alloy market is also recommended to be bullish in the short - term [5][13]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. Short - term bullish thinking is recommended. The support area is 250000 - 255000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 270000 - 290000 yuan/ton. It is advisable to buy out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Lead**: The lead price has rebounded and then consolidated. The inventory has continued to rise, and downstream demand needs further recovery. The lead market is expected to continue to consolidate. The support area is 16800 - 17000 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 17200 - 17400 yuan/ton. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at low prices [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The nickel market has a pattern of overall supply surplus. There are signs of supply contraction in some areas, but downstream demand is weak. The nickel price is expected to have a staged rebound, with the upper target at 123000 - 125000 yuan/ton and the lower support at 115000 - 116000 yuan/ton. The stainless steel market has a situation of both weak supply and demand. The support area is 12300 - 12400 yuan/ton, and the pressure area is 12800 - 13000 yuan/ton [8][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided. For example, the closing price of copper futures is 79740 yuan/ton, with a 0.05% increase; the closing price of zinc futures is 22945 yuan/ton, with a 0.09% increase; etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short changes, and influencing factors of different varieties such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given. For example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 79830 yuan/ton, with a 0.04% increase; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price is 22770 yuan/ton, with a 0.26% decrease; etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each non - ferrous metal variety, relevant industry chain charts are provided, such as the exchange copper inventory change, zinc inventory change, aluminum inventory and price trend comparison, etc. These charts help to analyze the supply - demand relationship and price trends in the industry chain [22][23][26] 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, including the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, aluminum basis and spot - futures price trend, etc., which are used for arbitrage analysis [49][51][53] 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, such as the historical volatility of copper options, the weighted implied volatility of zinc options, the trading volume and open interest changes of aluminum options, etc., which are used for option analysis [65][67][69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tight supply of scrap aluminum provides strong support for the market. Despite the serious over - capacity and low operating rate in the recycled aluminum industry, the scrap aluminum supply shortage and the delayed arrival of the scrap peak in 2 - 3 years give a solid foundation to the market. There is a potential for a soft squeeze - out situation in the ADC12 market if the peak - season demand is fulfilled and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3][14][19]. - In terms of investment strategies, an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be considered currently, with profit expected to be realized in October. For unilateral trading, there are opportunities to go long at low prices [3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Research Objects and Purposes - The research objects are 5 recycled aluminum plants and 2 scrap aluminum recyclers in Nantong, Baoying, Kunshan, and Shanghai. The purpose is to discuss aspects such as production capacity, output, scrap aluminum supply and demand, costs, prices, inventory strategies, and hedging intentions after the listing of aluminum alloy futures, and to think about subsequent trading logic [10]. 3.2. Key Research Findings and Analyses 3.2.1. Scrap Aluminum Procurement - Scrap aluminum procurement is tight due to limited imports (US tariff policies, port congestion in Malaysia, and environmental regulations in Thailand), limited domestic scrap aluminum increment but increasing demand, and some large factories only purchasing from large - scale ticket - issuing recyclers to avoid information asymmetry risks [14][17]. 3.2.2. Production and Operation - The surveyed recycled aluminum plants have an operating rate higher than the industry average, with an aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio of over 50 - 60% and a maximum transportation distance of 300km. The ADC12 production ratio is around 40 - 50%, and orders are mainly long - term contracts. There is a potential soft squeeze - out risk in the ADC12 market [18][19]. - The use ratio of raw and cooked aluminum in scrap aluminum is flexibly adjusted according to prices. The natural gas consumption per ton is 80 cubic meters, and the total processing fee is 800 - 1200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive tax burden in Jiangsu and Shanghai is about 2 percentage points higher than that in Anhui, but some enterprises can make up for this cost through local procurement and sales, and product quality premiums [23][24]. - The raw material inventory of surveyed enterprises is generally 7 - 10 days' usage, and the finished product inventory is about 1000 - 1500 tons, with some enterprises having no finished product inventory but a high aluminum liquid direct - supply ratio [25]. 3.2.3. Warehouse Receipts - Currently, surveyed enterprises are open to delivering warehouse receipts but are mostly in a wait - and - see mode, mainly referring to the futures price and basis in September - October. The storage time of ADC12 alloy ingots is limited, and the high standards of futures delivery products may reduce the willingness of downstream enterprises to take delivery from the futures market [27]. 3.3. Investment Recommendations 3.3.1. Arbitrage - Consider the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL. The current price difference between ADC12 and A00 fluctuates between - 1500 yuan and + 500 yuan/ton, and the profit is expected to be realized in October. In the long - term, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 may gradually decrease [28]. 3.3.2. Unilateral Trading - Look for opportunities to go long at low prices. The tight scrap aluminum supply and the potential for a soft squeeze - out situation provide support for long - side trading [3][29]. 3.4. Research Minutes 3.4.1. Aluminum Alloy Plant A - Raw materials are mainly domestic scrap aluminum, with less than 20% imported. The annual production capacity is 24.99 tons, and the annual output is 22 tons. The ADC12 production ratio is over 40%. The enterprise does not stock finished products and sells based on orders [30]. 3.4.2. Aluminum Alloy Plant B - The import ratio of scrap aluminum is 30%, and the domestic ratio is 70%. The designed annual production capacity is 20 tons, and the current annual output is 7 - 8 tons. The enterprise plans to use a new production line for futures delivery products [33]. 3.4.3. Aluminum Alloy Plant C - Raw materials are mainly domestic. The Baoying base has a production capacity of 11.85 tons. The aluminum liquid ratio is over 60%, and the ADC12 ratio in aluminum ingots is less than 35%. The enterprise participates in hedging and has views on industry development [35][36]. 3.4.4. Aluminum Alloy Plant D - The Kunshan production line has a total approved production capacity of 12 tons, and the Anhui production line will focus on delivery. The ADC12 production ratio is 20 - 30%. The enterprise is positive about futures trading [37][38]. 3.4.5. Aluminum Alloy Plant E - The monthly scrap aluminum procurement is 4000 - 5000 tons. The current production capacity is 7 tons, and the monthly output is about 6000 tons. The enterprise is cautious about the increase in ADC12 social inventory [39][41]. 3.4.6. Scrap Aluminum Recycling Enterprise A - It has recycling centers in Shanghai and Fujian, with a large trading volume. It mainly recycles new scrap aluminum from aluminum processing enterprises and conducts business through long - term contracts [42]. 3.4.7. Scrap Aluminum Recycling and Aluminum Alloy Trading Enterprise B - It is a benchmark enterprise in scrap aluminum supply. The monthly ADC12 trading volume is about 1000 tons, and it may participate in delivery in November. It mainly conducts long - term contract business and hedges when purchasing scrap aluminum [44][45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage investment rating: Suspended [6] - Option strategy: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The decline of LME and SHFE copper was due to the increase in LME inventory caused by Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper from August 1st, but the supply - demand of copper has not changed fundamentally. With low TC prices and no significant weakening of terminal consumption, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On July 21, 2025, the SHFE copper main contract opened at 78,500 yuan/ton and closed at 79,700 yuan/ton, up 1.65% from the previous trading day. The night - session closed at 79,770 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - SMM1 electrolytic copper was quoted at 79,320 - 79,790 yuan/ton, with a premium of 150 - 290 yuan/ton to the current contract. The average premium rose 45 yuan from the previous day. The market showed three characteristics, and short - term spot premiums are expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: US Treasury Secretary said to cut interest rates if inflation is low. Trump Media & Technology Group bought $2 billion in Bitcoin. The US and Germany are close to an agreement to provide air - defense systems to Ukraine [3] - **Mine End**: In June 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,349,690.57 tons, down 1.91% month - on - month and up 1.77% year - on - year. Imports from Chile and Peru changed differently [3] - **Smelting and Import**: In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,042.568 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year. Imports from the DRC and Russia changed differently [4] - **Consumption**: On July 18, the copper rod order volume was 0.97 tons, down 0.10 tons from the previous day. The refined copper rod order volume and weekly total transactions also decreased [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts changed by 25.00 tons to 122,075 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 10,062 tons to 28,177 tons, and domestic spot electrolytic copper inventory decreased by 2.47 tons to 11.86 tons [5] Strategy - Copper: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging [6] - Arbitrage: Suspended [6] - Option: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6] Table 1: Copper Price and Basis Data - The table shows the changes in copper prices, premiums, inventories, warehouse receipts, arbitrage spreads, import profits, and the SHFE - LME ratio over different time periods [24][25][26]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Demand Resilience Exceeds Expectations, Alloy Has Support Below" [1] - Author: Zhou Tao from Galaxy Futures' Commodity Research Institute [1] - Occupation Certificate Number: Futures Practitioner Certificate No. F03134259, Investment Consulting Certificate No. Z0021009 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The demand resilience of alloys exceeds expectations, providing support for alloy prices, but it's not advisable to chase the rising prices due to increasing hedging pressure from more manufacturers resuming production [3][4] - Suggested trading strategies include going long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese, conducting cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low, and selling straddle options at high prices [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply has a slight rebound, and some manufacturers have expectations of further resuming production as prices rebound; although downstream steel enters the off - season, demand shows resilience with stable apparent demand of five major steel products and a significant increase in the molten iron output of 247 steel mills this week, supporting the demand for alloys; cost performance varies, with electricity prices decreasing in Gansu and Qinghai and slightly increasing in Ningxia [3] - **Silicomanganese**: Supply also has a slight rebound and remains at a low level; this week, the apparent demand and output of rebar both declined, suppressing the demand for silicomanganese, but overall crude steel output remains high, so demand still has resilience; port manganese ore spot prices have been stable and slightly strong recently, and overseas mines' August quotes are generally stable with a slight increase [3] 3.1.2 Strategies - **Unilateral**: Demand resilience supports prices, but avoid chasing rising prices [4] - **Arbitrage**: Go long on ferrosilicon and short on silicomanganese; conduct cash-and-carry arbitrage when the basis is low [4] - **Options**: Sell straddle options at high prices [4] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the content 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Supply and Demand Data Tracking - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons; the weekly demand for ferrosilicon of five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 20,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 200 tons; the weekly demand for silicomanganese of five major steel types (70%) is 123,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons [7] - **Supply**: The operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 32.45%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%; the national ferrosilicon output (weekly supply) is 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises is 40.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%; the national silicomanganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 182,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week of July 18, the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises is 63,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 216,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons [9] 3.3.2 Spot Price - Basis - Includes price and basis data of Inner Mongolia silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon 72%FeSi over multiple years [12] 3.3.3 Production Situation of Double - Silicon Enterprises - Shows the weekly output and operating rate data of domestic ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises over multiple years [16] 3.3.4 Steel Mill Production Situation - Covers data such as the blast furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills over multiple years [22] 3.3.5 Silicomanganese Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for silicomanganese, with losses in all regions. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,691 yuan/ton and a profit of - 91 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,711 yuan/ton and a profit of - 111 yuan/ton; etc. [23] 3.3.6 Cost - Manganese Ore Price - Displays the price data of South African - produced Mn36.5% semi - carbonate manganese lumps at Tianjin Port, South African South32 semi - carbonate manganese lumps' CIF shipping quotes, and other manganese ore prices over multiple years [31] 3.3.7 Ferrosilicon Cost and Profit - On July 17, 2025, different regions have different production costs and profits for ferrosilicon, all showing losses. Inner Mongolia has a production cost of 5,415 yuan/ton and a profit of - 165 yuan/ton; Ningxia has a production cost of 5,268 yuan/ton and a profit of - 68 yuan/ton; etc. [32] 3.3.8 Cost - Carbon Element and Electricity Price - Includes price data of Fugu blue carbon small materials, Yulin steam coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices over multiple years [39][42] 3.3.9 Double - Silicon Steel Tendering Prices of Hebei Representative Steel Mills - Shows the monthly procurement price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B and silicomanganese 6517 over multiple years [45] 3.3.10 Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Supply - Monthly Output - Displays the cumulative and monthly output data of domestic silicomanganese and ferrosilicon over multiple years [48][51] 3.3.11 Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon Import and Export - Presents the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of ferrosilicon in China over multiple years [56] 3.3.12 Magnesium Metal Demand - Includes the price data of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output data of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi over multiple years [57] 3.3.13 Alloy Factory vs Steel Mill Ferrosilicon Inventory - Shows the ferrosilicon inventory of alloy factories, the regional breakdown of alloy factory ferrosilicon inventory, the available days of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory, and the regional breakdown of steel mill ferrosilicon inventory available days over multiple years [59] 3.3.14 Alloy Factory, Steel Mill, and Port Manganese Ore Inventory - Covers the available days of steel mill silicomanganese inventory, the regional breakdown of steel mill silicomanganese inventory available days, the total manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicomanganese inventory of alloy factories over multiple years [61]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **polysilicon industry**, focusing on the price trends and market dynamics of polysilicon futures and its raw materials [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Decline of Polysilicon Futures**: - Polysilicon futures prices have significantly dropped, with some contracts falling below 33,000 yuan per ton, reaching new lows [1]. - The decline is attributed to a lack of substantial changes in the fundamentals, with expectations of increased inventory if production cuts do not occur [1][2]. 2. **Weak Demand and Downstream Price Drops**: - Overall demand for polysilicon is weakening, and downstream prices are also decreasing, leading to a situation where futures prices have fallen more than spot prices [3]. - The anticipated decline in demand post-installation in May and June has contributed to bearish sentiment in the market [1][3]. 3. **Cost Structure and Price Recovery Potential**: - If the prices of industrial raw materials and electricity continue to decline, it could lead to further reductions in production costs, allowing for potential price recovery in polysilicon [2]. - The market is observing a shift from a backwardation structure to a contango structure, indicating a potential for price recovery [5][10]. 4. **Inventory Management and Production Cuts**: - There are expectations of supply-side contractions, with companies considering production cuts to stabilize prices [4][12]. - The overall inventory in the polysilicon industry is expected to decrease slightly, despite weak demand [3][10]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Future Outlook**: - The market sentiment remains cautious, with many companies struggling to maintain cash flow amidst falling prices [13]. - There are discussions among leading companies about forming a special fund to consolidate production capacities, which could influence future supply dynamics [14][15]. 6. **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Currently, there are limited arbitrage opportunities, but the narrowing gap between spot and futures prices suggests potential for future trading strategies [8][9]. 7. **Profit Margins and Cost Pressures**: - The profit margins for polysilicon producers are under pressure due to declining raw material costs and market prices, leading to concerns about sustainability [16]. - Companies are faced with the dilemma of whether to cut production to maintain prices or to continue production at lower prices [12]. Other Important Insights - The average price of N-type auxiliary materials has decreased by 1.53% compared to the previous period, indicating broader market trends affecting production costs [7]. - The overall production levels in the polysilicon industry remain low, not reaching the highs seen in previous years, which reflects ongoing challenges in the market [10][11]. - The potential for a market-driven clearing process raises concerns about prices falling below cash production costs for many companies, with only a few major players remaining profitable [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the polysilicon industry.

Report Investment Rating - Hold the reverse spreads of 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 in the container shipping index (European Line) lightly [1] Core View - Yesterday, multiple contracts of the container shipping index rose. The 2510 and 2512 contracts increased in positions and prices, with the 10 - 12 spread widening. The 2508 contract rose to repair the subsidy space. For the 2508 contract, the current situation is neutral, and for the 2510 contract, the market is bearish in the long - term but has short - term capital game factors. The strategy is to hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [1][11][14] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - EC2508 contract closed at 2,126.0 points, up 4.77% with a trading volume of 30,362 and a position of 21,555, a decrease of 6,336 in position [1] - EC2510 contract closed at 1,655.6 points, up 15.38% with a trading volume of 107,782 and a position of 46,629, an increase of 13,685 in position [1] - EC2512 contract closed at 1,836.0 points, up 16.06% with a trading volume of 13,026 and a position of 7,434, an increase of 1,056 in position [1] - The 10 - 12 spread widened from - 130 points to - 180 points [11] 2. Freight Index - The SCFIS European route index was 2,421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1,266.59 points, down 18.7% week - on - week [1] - The SCFI European route index was $2,099/TEU, down 0.1% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $2,194/FEU, up 5.0% bi - weekly [1] 3. Spot Freight - Maersk's 31 - week Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price was reported at $3,070/FEU (up $70/FEU week - on - week), and the latest quote was updated to $3,110/FEU. Other shipping companies' quotes in late July remained unchanged, and the FAK average in late July was maintained at $3,350/FEU [11] 4. Market Fundamentals - In August, the weekly average capacity was revised up to 321,000 TEU/week. Maersk added 2 additional ships in August, increasing the probability of a lower opening price in the 32nd week [12] - For the 2508 contract, in the neutral scenario, the spot FAK from wk31 to wk34 may be revised down by about $200/FEU, and the 2508 neutral valuation is in the range of 2,050 - 2,100 points [13] - For the 2510 contract, October is the traditional off - season for the European route. The market's fundamental trading logic is to go short on rallies, but short - term capital games are the core driver [14] 5. Macro News - The US and its allies set the end of August as the deadline for reaching an Iran nuclear deal. If not reached, three European powers plan to activate the "snapback" mechanism [10]

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