Group 1 - The core view of the company is that the current economic scenario is still leaning towards a "soft landing," with only a slight increase in the probability of a "no landing" scenario to 25% and a decrease in the "hard landing" scenario to 10% [1] - The resilience of the U.S. labor market continues to support the "soft landing" scenario, with stable job growth and corporate profitability not being challenged [1][2] - The company observes signs of recovery in the Eurozone, particularly in Germany, indicating a clearer path for economic recovery despite the lack of synchronized growth across the region [3] Group 2 - The U.K. economy remains weak, with growth expected to be particularly sluggish in Q2 2025, but the company believes it is nearing a turning point for recovery due to improving credit conditions and stable real income [4] - The company expresses a cautious stance on long-duration bonds due to rising risks associated with long-term national debt, while favoring covered bonds and mortgage-backed securities for their attractive spreads and lower volatility [5] - In the credit market, the company has generally downgraded the outlook for various credit assets due to historically low credit spreads, although it maintains a preference for high-quality short-term bonds [5]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月5日电由于上周五公布的非农就业数据显著弱于市场预期，引发市场对经济衰退的担 忧，美国国债收益率大幅下滑，并延续跌势至周一（8月4日）。截至4日纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率 跌约2个基点至4.19%，2年期美债收益率跌约1个基点至3.68%。 美国劳工部上周五公布的数据显示，美国7月就业增长大幅放缓，非农就业岗位仅增加7.3万个，这一数 据远低于市场预期的11万个。5月、6月非农新增就业人数从14.4万人、14.7万人，大幅修正至1.9万人、 1.4万人，合计修正人数减少25.8万人。失业率也从6月的4.1%小幅上升至4.2%。 非农就业报告揭示了美国劳动力市场的疲软态势，进一步加剧了投资者对未来经济增长放缓的担忧。市 场对美联储将通过降息来支持经济活动的预期提升。 美国总统特朗普宣布，他已下令解雇美国劳工部下属的劳工统计局局长埃丽卡·麦肯塔弗，指控她"出于 政治目的操纵就业数据"。 国盛证券首席经济学家熊园表示，他更倾向于认为本次非农数据的下修是一次性调整，并不能代表美国 经济已出现衰退迹象。据熊园分析，虽然5-6月的非农数据大幅下修，但同一时期的初请失业金人数、 周度 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The recent US non-farm employment data significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to concerns about a cooling labor market [1] - The labor participation rate remained stable, but the slowdown in wage growth and a slight increase in the unemployment rate indicate weakening marginal resilience in the job market [1] - The market is experiencing a rapid repricing of economic outlook, with major US stock indices dropping over 1.5% and a short-term decline of 5 basis points in the 10-year US Treasury yield [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - The dismissal of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics head and the resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler have amplified policy uncertainty [2] - There is a noticeable split among Federal Reserve officials, with dovish members advocating for an early interest rate cut due to weak employment data, while hawkish members focus on persistent core PCE inflation above the 2% target [2] Group 3: Market Expectations and Trading Platforms - Market bets on a policy shift have increased significantly, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September rising to 82%, a 30 percentage point increase from before the data release [3] - XBIT decentralized exchange has gained traction among investors seeking to hedge against traditional market volatility, offering advantages such as no KYC requirements and self-custody of assets [3] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Asset Performance - The escalation of geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine situation, has injected risk premiums into global asset pricing, with gold futures surpassing $2050 per ounce and Brent crude oil futures rising by 2.3% [5] - The dollar index is experiencing fluctuations due to a combination of safe-haven demand and expectations of policy easing, while emerging market currencies are depreciating under risk sentiment [5] Group 5: Market Volatility and Investment Strategies - The non-farm data has acted as a catalyst for global financial markets to reassess economic and policy fundamentals, with the VIX index rising above 20, indicating potential for sustained asset price volatility [8] - Investors are advised to increase allocations to cash and high-rated bonds in their portfolios to mitigate liquidity shocks and price adjustments due to fluctuating policy expectations [5][8]

Employment Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 non-farm jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, marking a deviation of 1 standard deviation[3] - The previous month's job figure was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the past two months, the largest since June 2020[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.248%, higher than the expected 4.2% and the previous 4.117%, the highest level since November 2021[3] Sector Analysis - The education and healthcare sectors have become the largest contributors to U.S. non-farm employment, with healthcare jobs up 13% compared to December 2019[3] - In July, the education and healthcare sector added 79,000 jobs according to non-farm data, while the ADP data showed a decrease of 38,000 jobs, indicating a divergence between the two reporting methods[3] - Other sectors, such as federal government and temporary assistance services, continue to see job losses, highlighting a weak employment growth in various industries[3] Data Revision Insights - The significant downward revision of previous non-farm data is attributed to a recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors by the BLS, rather than political motivations[3] - The feedback rates for May's non-farm data were 93.5% and 94.4%, yet the second revision still showed a decrease of 125,000 jobs, indicating potential issues in data collection and reporting[3] Market Implications - Short-term data fluctuations may increase asset price volatility, necessitating a focus on mid-term narratives such as the ongoing accommodative monetary policy and the challenges facing the U.S. dollar's credibility[2] - Risks include unexpected policy shifts from the Trump administration, excessive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve leading to inflationary pressures, and prolonged high interest rates causing liquidity crises in the financial system[2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a non-farm payroll increase of 73,000 in July, significantly below the expected 185,000, marking the lowest level since December 2023 [2] - Three major sectors showed notable declines: retail sector layoffs of 12,000 (seasonally adjusted), a reduction of 34,000 temporary jobs indicating corporate contraction, and zero job growth in government sectors reflecting peak fiscal spending [3] - The market reacted sharply with a 15 basis point drop in U.S. Treasury yields, a 2% short-term jump in gold prices, and a mixed performance in the S&P 500 as investors bet on earlier interest rate cuts [4] Group 2 - Despite the employment slowdown, hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month (annualized at 4.8%), creating a paradox of wage inflation against the backdrop of a cooling job market [4] - The report highlights the delayed effects of interest rate hikes and suggests that the policy debate is entering a more complex phase, as the narrative of a "soft landing" faces challenges from the data [4] - The market is advised to prepare for greater volatility as the economic indicators present conflicting signals regarding the labor market and inflation risks [4]

Group 1: US Labor Market and Economic Outlook - Russell Investments indicates that the mild weakness in the US labor market supports the soft landing forecast, with job creation concentrated in long-term labor shortage sectors like healthcare [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for July will be a key driver for the US bond market, with potential soft labor market performance increasing pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts in September [1] - Deutsche Bank reports that enhanced economic activity in July has supported the US dollar, leading to a significant increase in the dollar index by 3.19%, the largest monthly gain since April 2022 [1] Group 2: UK Manufacturing and Economic Sentiment - S&P Global Market Intelligence notes that UK manufacturing is showing preliminary positive signals, although rising labor costs have led to a decline in employment indicators [2] - The UK Chancellor's upcoming fiscal plans may keep manufacturers cautious, especially as the Bank of England is expected to review interest rate cuts in light of persistent inflation and labor market weakness [2] - Analysts highlight that despite a slight increase in France's July PMI, a sharp decline in order volumes and business confidence indicates significant pressure on the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3: Eurozone Manufacturing and Inflation Trends - The Eurozone's July manufacturing PMI final value reached 49.8, the highest level since July 2021, with industrial output growing for the fifth consecutive month [3] - Germany's manufacturing PMI rose to a 35-month high of 49.1, while France and Austria's PMIs were at 48.2, indicating a need for continued monitoring of manufacturing trends [3] - The Eurozone's July consumer price index (CPI) annual rate reached 2.0%, above the expected 1.9%, suggesting inflation may remain above the European Central Bank's expectations in the coming quarters [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upward breakthrough of zinc prices from the range-bound consolidation has limited further upside potential, and the downward movement is also not smooth. The short - term directional signal is insufficient. The supply - increase and demand - weak situation of zinc is expected to continue until 2026. It is recommended to wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [1][2][7]. - In the third quarter, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline, while in the fourth quarter, there is a large pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level [1][7]. 3. Summary by Section Zinc Market Review - After the delay of extreme US tariffs and the repair of market panic, zinc prices in the Shanghai market filled the gap after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The expected economic soft - landing in the US and inflation expectations support zinc prices. However, due to the increase in domestic and overseas mine production, high prices of by - products, and pre - consumption caused by tariffs, the fundamentals have turned to supply increase and demand weakness, and the zinc price in Shanghai is under pressure at the 23,000 yuan integer mark [1]. - The shift of the zinc term structure from "B" to "C" indicates that the change from strong to weak fundamentals is being fully priced. Under the situation of weak reality and weak expectations, the term structure is flat. The profit space for short - selling is narrowed, and the loss from position transfer is also greatly reduced. In the third - quarter consumption peak season, the probability of zinc price oscillation is higher than that of decline [1]. Policy - level Impact on Zinc Prices - Tariffs: After the delay of high - level Sino - US tariffs, the supply of imported mines is relaxed, but the pre - demand caused by tariffs has overdrawn some future consumption space, and the domestic social inventory of zinc has gradually increased. Attention should be paid to the progress of the third - round Sino - US negotiations on August 12, and the market generally expects another 90 - day tariff delay [2]. - Anti - involution: In the short term, it has a supporting effect on zinc prices, but in the long - term, it has little impact on the upstream and downstream production capacity of zinc, and the situation of supply increase and demand weakness is expected to continue [2]. - Power sector: The long - term investment in the power sector is optimistic. Although the construction of the Medog Hydropower Station has limited direct demand for zinc, the supporting power grid and infrastructure construction can drive zinc consumption [2]. - Infrastructure: As of the beginning of the year, local special bonds have mainly been used to repay old debts, and the infrastructure has not strongly stimulated demand. With the weakening of the US dollar and the loosening of the domestic monetary policy in the second quarter, some infrastructure projects may be implemented during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [2]. Domestic Refinery Raw Material Supply and Industrial Chain Profit Distribution - In June, the raw material inventory days of domestic refineries reached 29.7 days. The project approval of domestic lead - zinc mines has accelerated, and mines are expanding and resuming production. Refineries have a low acceptance of high - priced imported ingots, making it difficult for import ore traders to raise prices. The domestic TC of imported ore has increased, and the profit of mines is high, with room for short - selling mine profits on the futures market [4]. Impact of LME Deliverable Inventory Concentration on Shanghai Zinc - On July 18, the LME zinc price rose by 3.16%, the largest daily increase this year. The market is concerned about the squeeze - out risk. The net position of LME zinc investment funds has changed from short to long, and the external market has a strong trend, which has an obvious pulling effect on the domestic market. Short - term sharp decline of zinc prices is difficult. However, the long - position of investment funds on the LME has been reduced for 5 consecutive weeks [5]. Zinc Price Rebound and High - level Hedging Pressure - There is still a demand for high - level industrial hedging. When the zinc price in Shanghai is above 23,000 yuan, the entry of hedging positions brings downward pressure. Speculative funds tend to believe that the rebound high of zinc is in the range of 23,500 - 24,000 yuan/ton [6]. Overall Market Outlook - In the third quarter, zinc prices are expected to oscillate between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. In the fourth quarter, there is high pressure for the zinc price to correct from the high level. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [7].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market has experienced a significant rally since June, with prices exceeding $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, and a year-to-date increase of 33%, surpassing gold's 27% rise [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Analysts express optimism about silver's future performance, attributing recent price increases to the passage of the U.S. tax reduction bill, which is seen as a fiscal stimulus that supports silver's commodity attributes [1] - Three factors are expected to influence silver's short-term performance: reduced uncertainty in tariff policies weakening silver's safe-haven appeal, the implementation of the U.S. tax reduction bill potentially boosting the economy, and a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Market Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand, which constitutes 50% of its total demand, is expected to provide additional support as market expectations for an economic "soft landing" rise, leading to stronger performance in industrial metals [2] - The rotation of funds from high-priced gold to more elastic silver and other precious metals is noted, as investors seek better value during gold's plateau phase [2] Group 3: Long-term Projections - Long-term projections indicate that the confluence of industrial demand and improved financial attributes of silver may lead to continued excess returns [3] - Citigroup forecasts that silver prices will break the $40 per ounce mark in the coming months, raising its three-month target price from $38 to $40 and its six to twelve-month target from $43 [3]

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June, the overseas market saw a resurgence of the "Goldilocks" trade, while domestic market sentiment was buoyed by a mild economic recovery[1] - The "Goldilocks" trade was driven by three factors: successful implementation of the "Beautiful America Act," lower-than-expected inflation data in May, and resilient employment data despite a mild economic slowdown[2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a slight decline of 0.3% since July 7, while the US dollar rebounded by 0.9%[5] Group 2: Domestic Market Focus - Domestic economic recovery was supported by effective consumption policies, with retail sales growth in May reaching a new high since 2024[3] - The core CPI in June rose by 0.3 percentage points to 0.6%, indicating sustained domestic demand release[3] - Manufacturing PMI in June exceeded expectations, with domestic orders recovering faster than new export orders[3] Group 3: Key Concerns for July - Overseas, the focus shifted to potential inflation risks, with rising retail prices and manufacturing price indices indicating upward inflation pressure in the US[4] - Domestic attention remains on "anti-involution" policies aimed at balancing supply and demand, with a focus on structural upgrades in industries[4] - The US announced tariff increases on 14 countries effective August 1, with rates including 25% on Japan and South Korea, and 30% on South Africa[5] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, with non-farm payrolls in June adding 147,000 jobs, primarily supported by government sectors[3][4] - The US fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to reach $804.4 billion, indicating a significant increase compared to previous years[5]

Group 1 - President Trump threatened to raise the baseline tariff rate to 20%, citing record stock market gains to alleviate concerns about global economic impacts [1] - The market appears to be experiencing "tariff fatigue," with traders seemingly desensitized to economic risks, as indicated by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropping to its lowest level since February [2] - Analysts warn that the current market pricing reflects an overly optimistic view of tariff risks and economic conditions, with the S&P 500 index being considered overbought [2][3] Group 2 - The potential for increased tariffs may inadvertently provide a stronger basis for the administration to impose them, as financial indicators are viewed as measures of policy success by Trump [2] - Current economic impacts from tariffs have not yet materialized, with controlled inflation in the U.S. and strong Asian exports, although concerns about sustainability in growth remain [3] - The repeated threats of tariffs are seen as a strategy to accelerate negotiations, allowing Trump to claim victories without investors becoming overly concerned about each tweet or decision [3]