1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the government bond supply in January showed a return to front - loaded efforts, with increased issuance volume and a longer - term structure. The incremental supply mainly came from local bonds. The overall supply pressure in the first quarter remained high, with front - loaded rhythm and longer duration characteristics. The core of the phased impact was the increase in supply concentration and the rise in the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds. Although the primary market enthusiasm for bonds has limited recovery, the carrying capacity is temporarily stable, and the issuance and carrying environment will improve with the return of potential allocation forces. Attention should be paid to the micro - situation's impact on primary pricing and secondary sentiment in the short term, and the demand change trend of the term structure under the normal state of high supply in the medium term [2][4][30]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. January Government Bond Supply: Return of Front - Loaded Efforts and Longer Issuance Terms - **Scale and Rhythm**: In January 2026, the government bond issuance volume increased significantly compared to the same period last year, with a front - loaded trend. The total net financing was about 115.619 billion yuan, of which local bond net financing was about 72.944 billion yuan, contributing most of the incremental supply. Compared with the average level from 2020 to 2024, the net financing in January 2026 was slightly higher [9]. - **Term Structure**: In January 2026, the supply of treasury bonds showed an overall increase in all terms, with the medium - and long - term becoming the main increment. The proportion of 30 - year treasury bonds in the total issuance continued to decline. For local bonds, the issuance scale increased significantly year - on - year, the proportion of ultra - long - term bonds remained stable, and the weighted term increased from 16.4 years to 17.7 years, indicating that the market carrying pressure was more concentrated on 30 - year ultra - long - term varieties [10][12]. - **Issuance Tendering**: In January 2026, the issuance of local bonds remained stable, but the intensity of capital participation declined. The overall multiple of local bond issuance tenders decreased, and the issuance relied more on passive funds. The spread between local bonds and treasury bonds converged, indicating that the supply - demand relationship of local ultra - long - term bonds remained relatively stable [13][15]. 2. Outlook for the First Quarter: The Duration Pressure on the Supply Side Needs to be Re - balanced - **Issuance Plan**: In 2026, the total government bond supply will remain high. The net financing of treasury bonds in the first quarter is expected to be in the range of 50 - 150 billion yuan, and the net financing of local bonds is expected to be 245 - 247 billion yuan per quarter. The issuance intensity of treasury bonds is adjusted through single - period scale, and attention should be paid to the planned scale of the 2 - year treasury bond issued on February 4. The expected issuance scale of local bonds from January to March is about 244 billion yuan, with a front - high and back - low net financing characteristic. The subsequent local bonds may continue the high - duration issuance feature, and the demand side will be under continuous pressure [16][18]. - **Institutional Demand**: The equity allocation of insurance funds has a phased squeezing effect on the ultra - long - term, but there is marginal repair space. The allocation of insurance funds to ultra - long - term local bonds has strong seasonality, and the buying intensity usually recovers gradually during the year. The expansion of the insurance liability side provides a basis for subsequent bond allocation. The potential expansion space of the insurance side can support the subsequent ultra - long - term supply [20][23]. - **Spread Comparison**: Since January 2026, the pricing of ultra - long - term local bonds has shown the characteristics of spread convergence and stable repair of issuance interest rates. The deviation between the issuance interest rate and the secondary market yield of 30 - year local bonds has narrowed, and the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has fallen back to the historical average range, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is gradually re - balanced [26]. - **Policy Tone**: The 2026 fiscal policy continues to be more proactive, with high - intensity in total amount, more focused in structure, stronger efficiency orientation, and parallel debt reduction and development. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm and structure of fiscal incremental arrangements and the subsequent issuance plan [27].

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-27 超长段修复，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力 不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期 对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。（ ...

大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 大摩闭门会：2026强势开局，然后呢？260123_导读 2026年01月25日 15:43 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 关键词 CSI300 恒生指数 盈利增速 市盈率 夏普比率 摩根士丹利 新兴市场 标普500 净资产收益率 ROE产业升级 人工智能 科技创新 财政政策 货币政策 房地产市场 新开工面积 房价 MSCI中国 人民币汇率 全文摘要 2026年初，中国股市展现强劲回升势头，背后推动力量包括企业盈利改善、科技创新加速以及政策面的支持。尽 管全球环境充满不确定性，摩根斯坦利仍对MSCI中国指数及其他新兴市场持乐观态度，预计2024年中后市场开始 反弹，强调了中国股市在风险调整后收益上的相对吸引力。对话还预测了亚洲主要股市的未来目标点位，并分析 了影响中国股市的七大关键因素，包括盈利预测、行业展望、宏观经济环境、房地产 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, and the T2603 contract decreased by 0.01% with an increase in open interest. The IRRs of CTD bonds corresponding to major Treasury bond futures contracts were at low levels, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally increased, and the yields of key - term Treasury bonds also showed mixed trends. The 10Y Treasury bond yield dropped by 0.87bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 40.57bp. Overseas, the 10Y Treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan all declined [2]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield dropped to 1.816%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repurchase withdrawal of 7.8 billion yuan. Shibor short - term varieties mostly increased, and the money market remained relatively stable. The US GDP in Q3 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. The Japanese bonds stabilized, and the US bond yields rose first and then fell. The 2025 GDP growth target of 5% was achieved as scheduled, but there were slowdowns in some economic data. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank announced relevant policies, and the Treasury bond futures prices stabilized [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 102.392, 102.416, 105.850, 105.895, 108.180, 108.180, 112.51, and 112.68 respectively. The price changes were - 0.026, - 0.034, - 0.030, - 0.005, - 0.015, - 0.005, 0.210, and 0.210, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.03%, - 0.03%, - 0.03%, 0.00%, - 0.01%, 0.00%, 0.19%, and 0.19% [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interests of TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, and TL2606 were 67591, 7715, 146300, 32282, 246340, 29448, 141712, and 37434 respectively. The trading volumes were 29013, 2055, 47329, 6291, 59708, 7785, 72096, and 7627 respectively. The changes in open interest were - 1505, 711, - 905, 1370, - 1394, 1879, 1223, and 838 respectively [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.024, - 0.045, 0.000, and - 0.170, with previous values of - 0.032, - 0.020, 0.010, and - 0.170 respectively [2]. - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRRs of CTD bonds corresponding to major contracts were 1.329, 1.4849, 1.3355, 1.5361, 1.3663, 1.4884, 1.3571, and 1.3439 respectively, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 had yesterday's values of 1.4200, 1.5430, 1.4898, 1.6245, 1.4210, 1.6160, 1.51, and 1.64 respectively, with an increase of 2.4bp, 5.2bp, 2.44bp, 8.85bp, 4.6bp, 3.5bp, 1bp, and 9bp respectively compared to the previous day [2]. - **Yields of Chinese Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds were 1.29, 1.29, 1.40, 1.60, 1.70, 1.83, 2.27, and 2.27 respectively, with changes of - 0.01bp, 1.42bp, 0.88bp, 0.08bp, 0.28bp, - 0.87bp, - 0.5bp, and - 1.9bp respectively. The yield spreads of 10 - 2, 10 - 5, 5 - 2, and 30 - 10 were 40.57bp, 29.55bp, 11.02bp, and 44.40bp respectively [2]. Overseas Market - **Yields of Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of US 2Y, US 5Y, US 10Y, US 30Y, German 2Y, German 10Y, Japanese 2Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bonds were 3.56, 3.82, 4.22, 4.80, 2.110, 2.940, 1.277, and 2.236 respectively, with changes of - 4.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, - 2.0bp, 1.5bp, and - 1.7bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads were - 215.9bp, - 222.4bp, - 239.5bp, - 253.1bp, - 70.9bp, - 111.5bp, 12.4bp, and - 41.1bp respectively [2]. Macro News and Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 26, the central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal was 7.8 billion yuan [3]. - **Economic Data**: The US GDP in Q3 2025 had a final annualized quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, higher than the initial value. China's 2025 GDP growth target of 5% was achieved as scheduled. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales slowed down to 0.9%, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by real estate development investment [3]. - **Policy Announcements**: The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit and expenditure volume would remain at a necessary level. The central bank pointed out that in 2026, it would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, with a certain space for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and announced a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools [3]. - **Other News**: Policies to expand inbound consumption, start the construction of national digital trade demonstration zones, and optimize the implementation of consumer goods replacement will be introduced. The bond connect company expanded its service scope to support overseas investors' cross - border repurchase and offshore RMB bond repurchase business. The US threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Canadian imports if Canada reached a new trade agreement with China [3].

固收-债市平论 20260126 摘要 央行通过 MLF 净投放 7,000 亿元，显著提振债券市场，但未来利率下 行节奏或将放缓，10 年期国债收益率下限预计在 1.8%-1.9%区间震荡， 大银行协助央行控制下限。 2 月份利率预计震荡，信用市场偏强，建议交易盘关注 3-5 年二级资本 债，配置盘可拉长久期，关注超长期利率债和 5 年以上二级资本债；3 月后利率仍有较大机会，建议以时间换空间。 2026 年财政政策总量增加和政府负债水平较低提振市场预期，但财政 增量预计不会超预期，支出更注重结构和效用，如支持民间投资和中小 微企业贷款贴息。 1 月政府融资约 1.2 万亿元，其中国债 0.47 万亿元，地方政府债超 0.6 万亿元。关键期限国债发行量增加，30 年国债认购热情高涨，需求端表 现强劲，地方债发行边际修复。 开年以来信用市场表现强劲，3-5 年二级资本债热度较高，市场倾向于 博弈确定性并获取票息收入。一季度摊余成本法估值的再配置规模增加， 3-4 月信用债仍具确定性，建议关注 3-5 年二永资本。 Q&A 近期债券市场收益率下行的主要原因是什么？ 近期债券市场收益率下行主要是由于前期供给压力有 ...

"2026年，我们认为在力度充分的逆周期政策支持下，中国经济运行有望继续边际改善。"中国金融四十 人研究院执行院长郭凯认为，2026年主要发达经济体的需求较大概率继续保持稳健增长，叠加中美经贸 关系有望在短期内企稳，中国经济面临的外部环境在边际改善。此外，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策延续，为经济增长提供有力支撑。 上述报告称，综合现有宏观指标表现，中国经济虽面临多重挑战，但仍表现出一系列积极变化。金融市 场较2024年有明显改善，股票、人民币汇率等关键金融资产价格表现强劲。 中国金融四十人论坛资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌强调了货币政策的作 用，他表示，要坚定市场信心，要有明确的态度和尽量少的目标。 中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)26日在北京举行2025年第四季度宏观政策报告发布会。报告指出，要持续保 持经济复苏态势，需要更加积极的逆周期政策。财政政策要保持支出力度，货币政策是激活内需的关 键。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) ...

Group 1 - UBS reports that despite strong overall economic data, growth sources are extremely narrow, with most of the real economy in a state of weakness or contraction, except for the AI and technology sectors [1][5] - The labor market expansion has significantly slowed, with actual employment shrinking when excluding the healthcare sector [1][6] - The current asset prices are based on the dual pillars of sustained AI investment and strong consumption from the wealthy, leading to a warning that any downturn in AI investment could trigger a recession with a 50% probability [3][15] Group 2 - UBS forecasts that the Federal Reserve will face a dilemma between maintaining independence and rescuing the labor market, predicting two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2026, bringing the target federal funds rate to 3.00% to 3.25% [4] - The market currently underestimates the likelihood of a rate cut in March, with only about 16% probability priced in, while UBS believes the chances are higher due to potential labor report weaknesses [4] - Political pressures are mounting on the Federal Reserve, which may lead to delays in necessary rate cuts to avoid perceptions of yielding to political influence [4] Group 3 - The growth of the U.S. economy is heavily reliant on AI-related investments, with a 17% increase in AI-related equipment investment over the past four quarters, while other equipment investments have declined by 1% [5] - Non-residential structure investment has contracted for six consecutive quarters, and residential investment has declined in four of the last five quarters [5] - The wealth distribution is increasingly polarized, with stock market wealth reaching a record 37% of total household wealth, benefiting high-income groups while others face inflation and stagnant real incomes [5] Group 4 - The labor market has deteriorated significantly, with an average monthly decrease of 41,000 jobs in the private sector when excluding healthcare and social assistance [6] - Broader labor utilization indicators are rising, indicating a more severe weakness in the labor market than headline data suggests [6] - Current employment growth is below the breakeven point needed to maintain stable unemployment rates, highlighting the extent of labor market weakness [6] Group 5 - Tariff policies are creating significant macroeconomic headwinds, with the weighted average tariff rate (WATR) rising to 13.2%, effectively imposing a 1.1% tax on GDP [10] - This has led to a rebound in inflation from 2.61% in April 2025 to 2.91% in August 2025, with expectations of inflation peaking in summer 2026 before gradually declining [10] - Tariffs are expected to significantly hinder real GDP growth in 2025 and 2026, limiting the Federal Reserve's policy options [10] Group 6 - Fiscal policy is expected to provide short-term support amid weak private sector demand, with a projected surge in personal tax refunds of approximately $50 to $60 billion due to the implementation of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" [11] - This fiscal stimulus is anticipated to shift from negative to positive in 2026, providing a bottom support for economic expansion despite underlying weaknesses [11] - UBS believes that as long as fiscal support continues, the economy is unlikely to collapse immediately [11]

24 January 2026 | 12:02AM HKT Portfolio Strategy Research CHINA WEEKLY KICKSTART Markets edged down 1%; Q4 GDP in line with expectations amid mixed December activity data MXCN/CSI300 both edged down by 0.6% this week. Vice Premier He Lifeng delivered a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan 20. MoF hosted a press conference on Jan 20 and reiterated its commitment to maintaining proactive fiscal policy in 2026. CSRC released Guidelines for performance benchmarks of mutual funds, effective ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Economic Overview - **US Economy**: The US economy is expected to exhibit a K-shaped recovery in 2025, with stable consumption from high-income households, primarily driven by asset markets and housing prices. In 2026, inflation is projected to decline, and the peak effects of tariffs will fade, potentially enhancing purchasing power for middle- and low-income households, leading to a dual-driven consumption model [1][2] - **Eurozone Economy**: The Eurozone's economic performance is complex, with Germany showing significant potential for acceleration due to fiscal stimulus, while France and Italy are underperforming. Spain is strong but has a small share in the Eurozone. By the end of 2027, Eurozone growth is expected to exceed potential levels, accelerating from 0.1%-0.2% to around 0.35% [1][5] - **China's Macroeconomic Environment**: The macroeconomic environment in China remains challenging in 2026, with persistent deflationary pressures. However, advancements in advanced manufacturing are expected to improve global market share for exports. The People's Bank of China is unlikely to allow significant appreciation of the yuan to avoid exacerbating deflation, which could negatively impact corporate revenues, wage growth, and consumption [1][6] - **Asian Economies**: Other Asian economies are primarily driven by exports, with technology exports benefiting in 2025, while non-technology exports are expected to recover in 2026, leading to improved capital spending, employment, and consumption [1][3][7] Key Themes in Capital Expenditure - **Artificial Intelligence (AI) Investment**: In 2025, corporate spending will focus on AI, with non-AI related expenditures affected by policy uncertainties. AI investments are crucial for sustainable corporate spending, although a significant portion may not be reflected in GDP due to being intermediate or imported goods. If the recovery broadens, non-AI related spending may gain momentum, contributing to cyclical economic upturns [1][4] Risks and Considerations - **US Tariffs on Europe**: If the US imposes an additional 10% tariff on Europe, it could reduce GDP growth by 30-60 basis points. Retaliatory measures could further increase downside risks, indicating that new trade uncertainties could negatively impact Europe [1][3][9] - **Federal Reserve's Response to AI Adoption**: Rapid adoption of AI could significantly boost productivity growth, nearing 3%, similar to the tech boom of the 1990s. This may accelerate actual growth while inflation could decline, allowing the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, although timing will depend on balancing strong data with signs of falling inflation [1][8] Additional Insights - **Potential for Fiscal Stimulus in China**: A comprehensive demand-driven fiscal stimulus from Beijing is unlikely unless significant social stability challenges arise. In such cases, a shift towards consumer-focused policies, including increased social welfare spending, particularly for migrant workers, may be considered [1][10]

钢材：需求边际转弱，节前钢价延续震荡 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 目录 | 第一章 | 钢材行情总结与展望 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 价格及利润回顾 | 5 | | 第三章 | 国内外重要宏观数据 | 12 | | 第四章 | 钢材供需以及库存情况 | 19 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 钢材总结 数据总结： GALAXY FUTURES 2 供给：本周螺纹小样本产量199.55万吨（+9.25），热卷小样本产量305.41万吨（-2.95）。247家钢厂高炉铁水日 均228.1万吨（+0.09），富宝49家独立电弧炉钢厂产能利用率34.4%（-1.6）。电炉端，华东平电电炉成本在3410 （折盘面）元/吨左右，电炉平电利润-141.6元/吨左右，谷电成本3245（折理记）元左右，华东三线螺纹谷电利润 +23元/吨。近期随着废钢价格的上升，电炉成本持续增加，导致电炉利润下滑，本周铁水小幅复产，电炉产能利用率 有所下滑，废钢日耗在50.82万吨，预计后续仍有可能陆续减产；长流程钢利润维持盈利，铁水产量本周继续 ...