Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate a consensus among members that the U.S. economy has experienced a slowdown in growth during the first half of the year, with persistent high inflation levels [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity and consumer spending growth have slowed, leading to significant downside risks in the U.S. labor market, which contributes to uncertainty in economic growth prospects [1] Inflation Concerns - Most Federal Reserve members express greater concern over inflation risks compared to the labor market, resulting in the decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Schmied emphasizes that inflation risks are currently higher compared to the employment situation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is prioritizing inflation risks over employment conditions in its economic assessment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Federal Reserve President, Esther George, believes that inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - Esther George stated that as the dual mandate goals are approached, it becomes more challenging to determine the direction of policy rates [1] - The ongoing debate about when to lower interest rates hinges on whether individual decision-makers perceive the policy as overly tight [1] - George believes that while the policy is somewhat tight, it is on the right track [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent consumer and business price data indicate that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated in recent months [1] - There is new evidence that businesses are able to pass some of the rising import costs onto consumers [1] - The employment market has shown signs of slowing down, with an average addition of only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, believes that inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Esther George stated that as the dual mandate goals are approached, it becomes increasingly difficult to determine the direction of policy rates [1]. - The ongoing debate about when to lower interest rates hinges on whether individual policymakers perceive the current policy as overly tight [1]. - George believes that while the policy is slightly tight, the Fed is on the right path [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Recent data shows that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated in recent months, with evidence that businesses can pass some rising import costs onto consumers [1]. - The employment market has shown signs of slowing down during the summer, with an average addition of only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, with most believing inflation risk outweighs employment risk. In the tin market, despite Myanmar's restart of mining permit approvals, actual tin ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter, and the Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in phases. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. On the smelting side, production rebounded in July due to multiple factors, but raw material shortages are still severe in Yunnan, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the traditional off - season, with most maintaining only essential production and orders being mediocre. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated, with downstream enterprises making essential purchases at low prices. Domestic and LME inventories are on a downward trend. Technically, positions are decreasing, and both bulls and bears are cautious, expecting range - bound oscillations. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the 266,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton range [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 266,480 yuan/ton, down 1,360 yuan. The closing price of the September - October contract was down 240 yuan. LME 3 - month tin was at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin was 18,744 lots, down 633 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 1,514 lots, down 642 lots. LME tin total inventory was 1,630 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,792 tons, down 13 tons, and the warehouse receipt was down 25 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 266,800 yuan/ton, down 184 - 700 yuan. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 268,410 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 320 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 81 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 254,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, and the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 258,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu was 173,830 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation risk was higher than employment risk, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration announced that the total electricity consumption in July was 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].

（文章来源：新华社） 美联储7月30日结束货币政策会议后宣布，将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间不变。会 议纪要显示，许多与会官员注意到美国整体通胀率依然高于2%的长期目标，关税影响在经济数据中正 变得更加明显。 不过，与会官员对通胀的持续性等问题存在分歧。一些官员认为，关税上涨会导致物价一次性上涨；另 一些官员则表示，加征关税导致的供应链中断等因素可能造成顽固的高通胀，可能难以区分关税相关的 物价上涨与通胀基本趋势的变化。 新华财经纽约8月20日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会20日公布的7月货币政策会议纪要显示，美 联储官员总体上预计短期内通胀将升高，其中大多数官员认为通胀上行风险大于就业市场下行风险。 在7月货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会12名具有投票权的成员中，除1人缺席外，9人投票支持 维持利率不变。美联储负责监管事务的副主席米歇尔·鲍曼和美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒均投票支持降 息25个基点。这是30多年来首次出现2名美联储理事同时在有关利率决策的投票中表达不同意见的情 况。 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting minutes indicate that most members believe inflation risks outweigh employment risks, with some suggesting current interest rates may not be far above neutral levels [1][1] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq down 0.67%, S&P 500 down 0.24%, and Dow Jones up 0.04%, as major tech stocks mostly declined [1][1] - Concerns were raised about high asset valuations, with several members emphasizing that inflation could remain above 2% for an extended period, increasing the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored [1][1] Group 2 - A-share market indices have been rising, with insurance funds playing a significant role in this upward trend, actively buying equity assets to enhance long-term returns [2][2] - As of August 20, the total margin balance in the two markets increased by 153.22 billion yuan, indicating a growing interest in leveraged investments [2][2] Group 3 - The market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a peak of 3784 points, supported by strong performances in various indices, while the trading volume increased significantly [3][3] - The performance of the CSI 300 index has lagged behind the broader market, suggesting a strong demand for catch-up growth, with expectations of a potential rise to 4700 points [4][4] Group 4 - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is below 12.5 times, indicating a strong demand for value reassessment of core assets in the Chinese stock market [4][4] - The market is expected to experience a "seesaw effect," where individual stocks may perform differently despite overall index movements, leading to potential volatility [6][6] Group 5 - The current market dynamics suggest that while the index appears high, the ongoing upward movement of the CSI 300 index and related ETFs could prevent significant declines in the overall market [6][6] - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully and engage in stock rotation to optimize their portfolios and minimize losses during market fluctuations [8][8]

Group 1 - The article highlights the increasing economic uncertainty due to hasty tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries, which raises inflation risks and necessitates caution from central banks like the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1][6] - The chaotic tariff negotiations initiated by the Trump administration have led to global confusion, with the U.S. negotiating with multiple countries simultaneously, resulting in vague agreements and disputes [2] - The report draws parallels between the current situation and the 1985 Plaza Accord, emphasizing the potential for a repeat of historical market events, such as the significant depreciation of the dollar and the subsequent market crash in 1987 [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve faces inflation risks due to tariffs and labor shortages, making it hesitant to cut interest rates despite pressure from the Trump administration [6] - The Bank of Japan is delaying interest rate hikes due to the impact of tariffs on the Japanese economy, even as a weak yen exacerbates food inflation [6] - The article suggests that both central banks must navigate complex economic challenges, with the Federal Reserve needing to monitor inflation closely to avoid stagflation, while Japan should consider raising rates to stabilize the yen and curb inflation [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve anticipates a rise in short-term inflation, with most officials believing that the risks of inflation outweigh the risks to the labor market [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% following the July 30 meeting [1] - In the July meeting, 9 out of 12 voting members supported keeping the interest rates unchanged, with only one member absent [1] Inflation Outlook - Many officials noted that the overall inflation rate in the U.S. remains above the long-term target of 2% [1] - There is a divergence among officials regarding the persistence of inflation, with some believing that tariff increases will lead to one-time price hikes, while others argue that supply chain disruptions from tariffs could result in stubbornly high inflation [1] Voting Dynamics - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors expressed differing opinions in the voting on interest rate decisions, with Vice Chair Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller voting for a 25 basis point rate cut [1]

●FPG最新市场脱水消息： 1. 美国彭博社分析称，美国总统特朗普呼吁美联储理事库克辞职，引发人们对美联储独立性的新担忧，提振避险需求，黄金价格因此上涨。 2. 彭博社指出，如果库克辞职，特朗普将有机会任命一位立场更为鸽派的理事。不过，库克暗示她有意继续留在美联储。 央行购买黄金以及流入交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金支撑了黄金价格，包括瑞银集团( UBS Group AG)管理部门在内的许多分析师都认为，黄金还有 进一步上涨的空间。 ●FPG fortune prime global分析师观点： ●今日关键指标（事件）： 如果鲍威尔立场鸽派，这对黄金有利，因为黄金不产生利息。如果他立场鸽派，金价需要突破3350美元/盎司，并最终重新测试3400美元/盎司。上 个月美联储政策制定者会议纪要显示，官员们强调通胀风险超过了对劳动力市场的担忧。根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的"美联储观察工具"，交易 员目前预计9月降息25个基点的可能性为 83%。今年以来，黄金价格已上涨逾25%。4月份金价曾创下历史新高。 FPG特约分析师（chad）观点： 未来几周金价将维持高位。我们预计2025年剩余时间内金价将在3200美元/ ...