Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the current situation of the copper market, indicating that the short - term contradictions in electrolytic copper continue due to regional market delivery pressure. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks, influenced by factors such as supply - side pressure, weak demand, and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment [3][63]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - The price of the SHFE main contract on December 15, 2025, was 92,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.84% from December 12, showing a slight decline. The premium of premium copper increased from 10 yuan/ton on December 12 to 85 yuan/ton on December 15, strengthening the basis [1][58]. - On December 12, 2025, the LME copper positions increased by 3,298 lots to 348,144 lots, and the trading volume expanded, indicating increased market activity [1][59]. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: The LME inventory increased to 42,226 tons on December 15, 2025, a 29.67% increase from December 9, indicating increased supply pressure. Recently, BMC Mining listed on the Australian Stock Exchange to advance the KZK project, and Fortescue acquired AltaCopper's Canariaco project, which may increase future copper supply [2][60]. - **Demand Side**: On December 15, 2025, downstream procurement was weak. The decline in copper prices but still high absolute prices suppressed demand. The acceleration of aluminum - replacing - copper industrialization by Huafeng Aluminum may replace some copper demand [2][61]. - **Inventory Side**: The LME inventory increased significantly, the COMEX inventory increased to 450,618 short tons on December 12, 2025, and the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 165,875 tons on December 15, 2025. Overall, the global inventory level increased, reflecting a loose supply - demand situation [2][62]. Price Trend Judgment The driving factors include increased supply pressure from inventory accumulation and potential new projects on the supply side; suppressed demand from weak downstream procurement and the risk of aluminum replacement on the demand side; and a neutral - to - weak macro sentiment. It is expected that copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation range of 91,000 - 93,000 yuan/ton in the next one to two weeks [3][63].

格隆汇12月16日丨海亮股份(002203.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司于2015年已布局铝材业务。当 前，公司自产内螺纹铝管和微通道扁管产品除了供应空调领域及家电等铝材使用场景外，还作为新能源 领域铝散热材料供给客户。 目前公司铜管供货暂未受到铝代铜标准落地影响，与此同时，公司产品类 型丰富，供应场景多样，除了空调和冰箱制冷领域，还广泛应用于建筑水管、数据中心、电子电力、印 刷电路板、新能源等领域。 ...

Group 1 - A total of 19 air conditioning companies, including Haier, Midea, Hisense, TCL, and Xiaomi, have signed a self-regulatory agreement to promote the breakthrough of aluminum replacing copper technology, with Gree Electric being the only major company absent from this initiative [2] - The cost of copper accounts for 20% of the total cost of a single air conditioner, while the cost of aluminum is only 1/10 of that of copper, indicating potential for significant price reductions if aluminum can effectively replace copper [2] - Copper has superior thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, and long-term reliability compared to aluminum, with copper's thermal conductivity being 1.7 times that of aluminum and copper pipes having an average lifespan of 15-20 years compared to aluminum pipes' lifespan of less than 8 years [2] Group 2 - China's copper demand has been steadily increasing, reaching 11.6983 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4.09% [3] - The air conditioning industry consumes approximately 850 million kilograms of copper annually, accounting for about 21% of China's total copper demand [5] - The production of white goods, including refrigerators, air conditioners, and washing machines, has shown a fluctuating upward trend from 2012 to 2023, with air conditioner production reaching 157.056 million units in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [5] Group 3 - Gree Electric's CEO, Dong Mingzhu, has stated that the company currently has no plans to adopt aluminum replacing copper technology due to concerns over quality and reliability, emphasizing that quality is the primary consideration over cost [6][8] - Gree Electric's Vice President, Hu Yusheng, confirmed during an earnings briefing that the company will not pursue aluminum replacing copper until performance, quality, and reliability can be fully guaranteed [6] - Dong Mingzhu has expressed that the rising copper prices do put pressure on Gree, but the company prioritizes responsibility towards the country, shareholders, and employees over merely focusing on cost [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a significant aluminum supplier in the global automotive thermal management and lightweight sectors, emphasizes material research and development while expanding into other industrial fields such as aerospace, rail transportation, and home appliances [2] Group 1: Company Developments - The company is actively investing in new technologies and products to enhance its market position [2] - The company has made significant progress in the home appliance sector, particularly in the "aluminum replacing copper" market [2] - As of mid-2025, the main plant for the "annual production of 14,000 tons of high-efficiency, high-corrosion-resistant household air conditioning aluminum tubes" project has completed acceptance, with some production lines already operational [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The company is committed to seizing industry development opportunities and continuously meeting customer demands [2]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate over "aluminum replacing copper" in the air conditioning industry has intensified following comments from Gree Electric's chairman, Dong Mingzhu, emphasizing that aluminum has not yet reached the technical standards necessary to replace copper [1][7]. Group 1: Industry Standards and Developments - The China Refrigeration Society released a group standard for aluminum tube fin heat exchangers on December 11, 2023, with major manufacturers like Gree, Midea, Haier, Xiaomi, Hisense, TCL, and Aux participating in the standardization process [1][8]. - A new round of discussions on national standards for heat exchangers is expected to take place in January 2026 [1][8]. Group 2: Industry Disagreements - Several air conditioning companies, including Haier, Midea, and Xiaomi, have joined a self-regulatory agreement to promote aluminum heat exchangers while avoiding false claims and enhancing consumer trust [2][8]. - Gree has not joined this agreement, with Dong Mingzhu stating that the company will consider aluminum only when it can fully replace copper [2][9]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The debate over "aluminum replacing copper" has persisted for over a decade, often reignited by fluctuations in copper prices, which have recently reached historical highs, with LME copper prices exceeding $11,461 per ton [3][9]. - The copper-aluminum price ratio has remained between 2.5 and 4.5 since the supply-side reforms of 2017-2018, with the current ratio at 3.8 as of November 2025 [3][10]. Group 4: Technical Considerations - Concerns regarding aluminum's inferior thermal conductivity, strength, and corrosion resistance compared to copper have been raised, suggesting that using aluminum could negatively impact the lifespan and reliability of air conditioning units [3][6]. - The application of aluminum in refrigerators has progressed more rapidly, with aluminum accounting for nearly 90% of the cooling systems, while air conditioning remains more complex due to varying operational conditions [5][11]. Group 5: Policy Support - The Chinese government has elevated the "aluminum replacing copper" initiative to a policy level, with a plan issued in March 2025 to promote aluminum consumption in various sectors, including home appliances [4][10].

Core Viewpoint - The air conditioning industry is increasingly focused on the "aluminum replacing copper" issue due to rising copper prices, with major companies like Gree Electric expressing caution about the feasibility of this transition [1][3][5]. Group 1: Industry Context - Gree Electric's chairman, Dong Mingzhu, stated that while aluminum can potentially replace copper, the technology has not yet reached the same level of reliability and performance as copper [1][3]. - Gree has repeatedly emphasized that there are currently no plans to implement "aluminum replacing copper" in their air conditioning products, citing copper's superior thermal conductivity, corrosion resistance, and long-term reliability [5][7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - By the end of 2025, global copper supply is expected to tighten significantly, with demand surging and potential tariffs from the U.S. contributing to rising prices, which are anticipated to reach new historical highs [3][7]. - The International Energy Agency projects that even with high production levels, the global copper supply gap could reach 20% by 2035 [3][7]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will enter a new high-price trading phase starting next year [3][7]. Group 3: Standards and Regulations - At the recent 2025 China Home Appliance Technology Annual Conference, a group standard for the construction of aluminum tube fin heat exchangers for air conditioners was released, with additional standards for aluminum heat exchanger raw material requirements currently being developed [3][7]. - Several air conditioning companies have joined a self-regulatory agreement to promote the scientific benefits of aluminum heat exchangers while avoiding exaggerated claims, aiming to enhance consumer trust in industry products and technologies [3][7]. - Gree participated in the revision of national standards for heat exchangers but did not join the self-regulatory agreement [7].

在谈及"铝代铜"时，董明珠的态度，依旧熟悉，也依旧坚定：格力坚决不用"铜代铝"。铝能不能代铜？ 可以代。但问题不在"能不能"，而在于——当前的技术成熟度，是否足以支撑长期、稳定的用户使用场 景。 铝不是不能用，而是"用到什么程度"的问题 在空调系统里，铜和铝从来都不是简单的"材料之争"。 铜导热性能好、耐腐蚀、工艺成熟，几十年下来，几乎是行业的"默认选项"。而铝的优势同样明显，它 更轻，而且最关键的是它更便宜、资源储量更大，对成本控制和规模化制造极具吸引力。 最近，空调行业里那场"老话题"又被拎了出来，铝能不能代替铜？ 而这一次，把话说到台前的，则是格力的掌舵人，董明珠。 来源：抖音@格力董明珠健康家毅力直播间 从行业推进速度来看，这条路线显然已经不是"要不要试"，而是"如何更快、更稳地试"。 这也让董明珠的表态显得有些"逆风"。 当多数企业都在为成本、规模和效率寻找更优解时，格力选择继续把铜留在核心系统里，确实不算一条 讨巧的路。 但也正因为如此，这种选择才更值得被拆开来看。 当行业几乎都在"顺应潮流"，有人选择踩一脚刹车 因此从产业逻辑看，"铝代铜"并不难理解。铝更轻、更便宜、储量更大，对供应链和成本结构 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Dong Mingzhu, the chairwoman of Gree Electric Appliances, insists on not using aluminum as a substitute for copper due to the current technological limitations of aluminum compared to copper [2] Group 2 - Dong Mingzhu emphasizes that aluminum has not yet reached the same technical conditions and guarantees as copper, which is crucial for the quality and reliability of Gree's products [2]

Group 1 - Gree Electric's Chairman Dong Mingzhu reiterated the company's stance against using aluminum instead of copper in air conditioning, citing that aluminum has not yet reached the same technical standards and reliability as copper [1][2] - The company acknowledges the rising copper prices and the potential cost benefits of using aluminum, which is significantly cheaper, but emphasizes that the performance and reliability of aluminum have not been sufficiently proven [1][2] - Gree Electric has stated that copper constitutes about 20% of the cost of air conditioners, and while aluminum costs about one-tenth of copper, its physical properties such as thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance are inferior [1][2] Group 2 - China is the largest producer and consumer of air conditioners globally, but it relies on imports for about 80% of its copper, while it produces 60% of the world's electrolytic aluminum, indicating a stronger control over raw material supply [2] - The air conditioning industry is accelerating the development of standards for aluminum use, but there are significant technical challenges, particularly in compensating for aluminum's performance shortcomings compared to copper [2] - A group of leading air conditioning companies, including Haier, Midea, and TCL, has committed to a self-regulatory agreement regarding the use of aluminum heat exchangers, although Gree Electric did not participate in this initiative [3]

Core Insights - The air conditioning industry is undergoing a significant transformation with major brands like Haier, Midea, Hisense, TCL, Aux, and Xiaomi establishing a standard for replacing copper with aluminum in core components [1][5]. Industry Overview - Traditionally, copper has been the primary metal used in air conditioning systems due to its excellent thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance [3]. - The rising copper prices, which have increased by 35% this year and surpassed $12,000 per ton, pose a significant cost pressure on the air conditioning industry, especially since 80% of the copper used in China is imported [5]. Cost and Supply Chain Implications - The shift to aluminum is seen as a strategy to reduce costs and mitigate supply chain risks associated with heavy reliance on imported copper [5][7]. - Aluminum is significantly cheaper than copper, and China produces 60% of the world's electrolytic aluminum, ensuring a stable supply [7]. Competitive Landscape - Notably, Gree, a major player in the air conditioning market, has opted not to participate in the aluminum standard due to concerns about the durability and stability of aluminum compared to copper [7]. - This decision raises questions about consumer preferences, as brands using aluminum may offer lower prices while Gree maintains higher prices with copper, potentially affecting market dynamics [9].