6月17日国际原油价格盘中上涨。截至当日14时，WTI 7月原油期货报每桶72.18美元，上涨0.41美元。 伦敦布伦特8月原油期货报每桶73.70美元，上涨0.47美元。 受伊朗与以色列爆发冲突影响，国际油价在6月13日应声上涨，至今一直持续保持高位运行态势。 隆众资讯原油分析师李彦对《中国经营报》记者表示："当前对油价影响比较大的主要是以色列和伊朗 之间的地缘冲突。"其认为，从2025年全年油价走势来看，整体趋势是看空的。 国际油价震荡 当地时间6月13日，伊朗与以色列爆发冲突。当天，国际油价应声上涨。其中，纽约商品交易所7月交货 的轻质原油期货价格收于每桶72.98美元，上涨4.94美元，涨幅7.26%；8月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货 价格收于每桶74.23美元，上涨4.87美元，涨幅7.02%。 记者了解到，伊朗是OPEC（石油输出国组织）第三大产油国，EIA（美国能源信息署）数据显示，5月 份伊朗的原油产量为3.35百万桶/日。同时，伊朗掌控着霍尔木兹海峡，该海峡是中东最重要的石油通 道，承担着全球近40%的石油出口供应。 李彦对记者表示："当前对油价影响比较大的主要是以色列和伊朗之间的地缘冲突。当前 ...

根据央视新闻和其他媒体的报道，6月14日晚，以色列军队的无人机对伊朗最大的天然气田——南帕尔斯天然气田进行了袭击，导致该天然气田的部分区域 发生了大规模火灾。以军对伊朗能源基础设施的打击，必将引起伊朗的强烈反击，这种相互的军事报复势必会使国际能源市场面临剧烈的动荡。因此，俄罗 斯的网友对此事表现出了异常的关注，尤其希望国际油价能迅速上涨。他们在讨论中，着重关注伊朗何时会对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁，并列出了会促使伊朗 采取这一举动的三个条件： 其次，伊朗国内民众情绪的剧烈爆发。如果以色列对伊朗的轰炸继续无差别扩大，给伊朗的平民带来严重的伤亡、导致大量难民涌现，从而激起周边国家的 围堵局面。在这样一片愤怒的复仇情绪之下，对霍尔木兹海峡实施封锁的决定可能成為德黑兰转移矛盾、形成统一意见的唯一选择。 URGHU FOTHER FULLER FULLE IIII SGCU TFF pp 最后，在伊朗遭受窒息性制裁的情况下，其局势面临无路可退。当美国及其盟友加大对伊朗的制裁力度，严厉限制其石油出口，使得其经济几近崩溃时，德 黑兰可能会判断外交斡旋和常规的对抗手段已然失效。在这种情况下，封锁海峡将成为一种极端策略，旨在突破困境 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 17, the closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%. The position was 51,143 lots, a decrease of 728 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quoted price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts was about 1,401 yuan/ton. Coke is in a pattern of double - decline in supply and demand, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging. Recently, the marginal decline in coking coal production, combined with geopolitical events, has strengthened the cost support for coke futures, driving the price to stop falling and stabilize [5][31]. - From January to May, coking coal futures continued to decline. The recent change in market sentiment is due to supply - side disturbances and macro - positive expectations from international events. For coking coal hitting an 8 - year low, short - and medium - term adjustments are reasonable. However, it will take time to reverse the current pattern of loose supply. Without policy intervention, supply pressure may return after July. The impact of the Sino - US London economic and trade consultation on the terminal demand for ferrous metals is limited, and the key factor may be whether the Israel - Iran conflict will trigger a new round of international energy price increases. Since June 3, the price of the coking coal 2509 contract has stopped falling and gradually increased, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation [6][32]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Industry News - On June 16, US President Trump said that the US would postpone sanctions on Russia to reach an agreement. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova said that at the US request, a new round of bilateral consultations between Russia and the US to normalize diplomatic relations had been cancelled [8]. - On June 17, in the online auction of coking coal in Lvliang Lishi market, 0.3 million tons of low - sulfur main coking coal failed to be sold, and the starting price was 1,070 yuan/ton. For high - sulfur lean coal, 1 million tons were sold at a price of 650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from June 13 [9]. Spot Market - Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke flat - warehouse price was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 5.22%, an annual decline of 24.85%, and a year - on - year decline of 36.18%. Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade coke ex - warehouse price was 1,180 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.28%, an annual decline of 27.16%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.80% [10]. - The price of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 865 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decline of 2.81%, a monthly decline of 5.98%, an annual decline of 26.69%, and a year - on - year decline of 45.94%. The price of Australian coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,210 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%, a monthly decline of 4.72%, an annual decline of 18.79%, and a year - on - year decline of 43.46%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, with a monthly decline of 3.10%, an annual decline of 18.30%, and a year - on - year decline of 39.02% [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the coke active contract was 1,365.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.00%, a maximum price of 1,378.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 1,357.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 20,990 lots, a volume difference of - 9,838 lots, a position of 51,143 lots, and a position difference of - 728 lots [13]. - The closing price of the coking coal active contract was 789.5 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.70%, a maximum price of 808.0 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 785.0 yuan/ton, a trading volume of 1,019,537 lots, a volume difference of - 9,258 lots, a position of 562,767 lots, and a position difference of - 16,234 lots [13]. Related Charts - Charts show the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mills' coking plants, ports, etc.) on a weekly basis from 2019 - 2025, as well as other related data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [14][26][28] Market Outlook - The coke market has limited fundamental positives, but the cost - side support from coking coal has increased, driving the price to stabilize and fluctuate at a low level. Continued attention should be paid to the raw material side [5][31]. - The coking coal market has seen a short - and medium - term price rebound, but the sustainability of production cuts and the impact of geopolitics on coal prices need further evaluation. A phased rebound approach is recommended, but beware of the falsification of the upward logic [6][32]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Douyi**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Doupo**: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Douyou & Palm Oil**: ★★★ (Three stars for bullish trend) and ★★★ (Three stars for bullish trend) [1] - **Caipo**: ★☆☆ (One star, bullish bias) [1] - **Caiyou**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Corn**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Pigs**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international policies, geopolitical situations, and weather conditions. The US EPA biodiesel policy is generally bullish for the agricultural product market, especially for soybeans and related products [2][3][4]. - Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies. For example, long - term investment in vegetable oils should be considered on dips, while the strategy for Caiyou may need short - term adjustment to a wait - and - see approach [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Douyi**: The domestic soybean market is oscillating strongly. The recent auction purchase session failed, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction of reserve soybeans in Heilongjiang. Short - term weather in the Northeast is favorable for crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is bullish, and in the medium term, weather will be the main factor affecting prices [2]. - **Soybeans & Doupo**: Affected by the Israel - Iran war, crude oil, and the US biodiesel policy, US soybeans and Dalian Doupo are rising. The US soybean's good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected. Future US weather is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic spot prices are rising, and the expected increase in crushing rate will lead to an increase in Doupo inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and attention should be paid to the changes in the oil sector and future weather from June to August [3]. Oils - **Douyou & Palm Oil**: The domestic oil - meal ratio has retreated after a high. The US EPA biodiesel policy is bullish for the long - term trend of vegetable oils, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Caiyou**: The main contract of Caiyou has increased in positions. Domestic Caiyou imports are limited, and the crushing rate is low. It is expected to gradually reduce inventory, but there is a risk of short - term upward resistance [6]. Others - **Caipo**: The main contract of Caipo has slightly reduced positions. The strategy is to maintain a bullish view [6]. - **Corn**: Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures are oscillating. The price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, leading to substitution. Corn traders expect higher prices, and the supply in Shandong is low. North - South port inventories are decreasing, and the processing enterprise's operating rate is falling. Corn futures may continue to oscillate [7]. - **Pigs**: The September futures contract of pigs has slightly rebounded, and the far - month contracts are relatively weak. Spot prices are stable. Relevant departments have proposed a regulation target for sow inventory, and the policy aims to stabilize pig prices. However, the industry still faces large pressure on pig slaughter [8]. - **Eggs**: The near - month egg futures are falling again, showing a pattern of near - weak and far - strong. Spot prices are rebounding. The elimination of old chickens is accelerating, but there is no sign of a bottom - reversal yet. A rapid price rebound may be unfavorable for the elimination of old chickens and lead to price fluctuations [9].

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-06-17 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 或受拖累。总库存处于历史同期偏高水平。成本方面，多国表示愿帮助调节伊以冲突，但近日冲突呈升温 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 趋势，国际油价高位宽幅震荡；纯苯供应持续宽松、支撑有限。苯乙烯供需偏弱，只是地缘不确定性驱动 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 油价宽幅波动扰动盘面价格。短期EB2507预计震荡走势，下方关注7320附近支撑，上方关注7700附近压力 免责声明 。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最 ...

美国此前与伊朗举行了多轮核谈判，但特朗普也警告称，若外交失败将考虑军事选项，而以色列已公开 推动袭击。 以色列对伊朗的突然袭击可能扰乱中东石油供应，令欧佩克+近期增产原油的决定成为焦点。 今年以来，尽管原油价格下跌，但沙特领导的产油国集团仍出人意料地加速恢复闲置产能。这引发了市 场猜测：该联盟是否受到白宫的施压，为其与伊朗的潜在冲突做准备。 知情人士称，沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒阿齐兹·本·萨勒曼（Abdulaziz bin Salman）亲王私下表示，沙特不 会重蹈2018年覆辙——当时特朗普说服欧佩克+在打击伊朗出口前增产，但随后又向许多伊朗石油进口 国授予豁免。这些举动导致油价在2018年12月跌至每桶50美元以下，远低于许多产油国的预算盈亏平衡 点。 分析师称，以色列袭击伊朗后油价大涨，这将缩小特朗普处理其他迫在地缘问题的政策空间，并引发对 美国通胀的担忧。 ClearView能源伙伴公司负责人凯文·布克（Kevin Book）表示，"欧佩克+的供应增加为以色列袭击伊朗 可能造成的供应中断留出了缓冲，但这也为对俄新制裁创造了空间——不过无法同时应对两者，"他称 若油价持续飙升或中东供应面临中断，特朗普可能动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Citigroup predicts a potential turning point for the historically rising gold prices, warning that gold prices may drop below the psychological threshold of $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, signaling the end of the current commodity market rally [1][3] - The analysis team led by Max Layton indicates that by the second half of 2026, international gold prices may return to the range of $2500 to $2700, driven by multiple factors creating downward pressure, including a decline in investment demand as risk aversion diminishes and a gradual improvement in global economic growth expectations [3] - The report highlights that the core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices were geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with a 30% increase attributed to market volatility from the Trump administration's trade policies and escalating Middle East tensions [3] Group 2 - Current spot gold prices are hovering around $3396, with Citigroup providing a 60% probability forecast that gold prices will fluctuate above $3000 in the next quarter before entering a correction phase, reflecting a reassessment of the global economic outlook [4] - The anticipated value correction in the gold market is expected to test investors' risk appetite and indicates a significant turning point as the interplay between risk demand and policy expectations evolves [4] - The report warns that the supportive factors for gold prices, such as concerns over the U.S. fiscal deficit and central banks' continued accumulation of gold reserves, are undergoing qualitative changes, particularly as the 2025 U.S. midterm elections approach [3]

摘要周二(6月17日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格上涨，目前交投于3392.69美元/盎司，涨幅0.24%。日内将 可关注美国5月零售销售月率、美国5月进口物价指数月率、美国5月工业产出月率、美国4月商业库存月 率等数据，整体上，预期偏向利好金价的力度较大。 Day称，这种情况使财政部处于非常困难的境地，因为他们现在面临未来的两大挑战。 Adrian Day资产管理公司的Adrian Day表示，贵金属市场的关键倒计时不是为了中东的核协议，而是为 了美国的债务协议。 他表示："美国财政部正面临资金危机，因为债务上限尚未提高，而且拜登政府给即将上任的特朗普政 府留下了一个空储柜。在特朗普宣誓就职前的周五，拜登的财政部长耶伦接受采访时说，我们将在周二 触及债务上限。这基本上就是'祝你好运，特朗普。'" Day表示，因此，到2025年为止没有净新增国债发行。 "我们唯一发行的国债是到期的国债，所以如果1000亿美元到期，他们就会出去发行1000亿美元。但他 们还不能再做什么了，而且他们已经没有什么花招了。他们正在讨论降低银行的存款准备金率，但作为 交换条件，他们不会把钱存入美联储，而是转而用这些钱购买美债。" "现在我们 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, and OPEC's production and demand forecasts [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, with low - sulfur fuel oil supply remaining tight and high - sulfur fuel oil supported by demand [3]. - Asphalt is expected to show a slightly stronger upward trend in the short - term, but the upward space is limited due to demand constraints [3]. - Polyester products are expected to be volatile. PTA has a weak supply - demand situation and depends on cost changes; EG is under short - term price pressure [4]. - Rubber is expected to be weakly volatile, with supply increasing and demand weak, leading to a downward shift in the price center [6]. - Methanol is expected to have increased volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to control risks [8]. - Polyolefins are expected to have increased price volatility in the short - term, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short - term [8]. - PVC is expected to be volatile. In the short - term, it is weak under the influence of the off - season, but the long - term multi - empty situation is changing [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices opened high and closed low. WTI July contract closed down $1.21 to $71.77 per barrel, a 1.66% decline; Brent August contract closed down $1.00 to $73.23 per barrel, a 1.35% decline. SC2507 closed at 530.4 yuan/barrel, down 10.5 yuan/barrel, a 1.94% decline. OPEC+ crude oil daily production in May averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. OPEC maintained its 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth forecasts [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 3.38% to 3,276 yuan/ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2508 rose 1.28% to 3,874 yuan/ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure remains stable, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is still supported [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.77% to 3,667 yuan/ton. It is expected that refinery复产 will drive a slight increase in production next week, but overall supply remains low. The demand in the north is relatively stable, while that in the south is weak due to rain [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.33% at 4,766 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed up 0.92% at 4,374 yuan/ton. Some Iranian MEG plants have stopped production, and some domestic polyester plants plan to reduce production [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 35 yuan/ton to 13,910 yuan/ton. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade warehouses increased, while that in the bonded area decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak [6]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,585 yuan/ton. The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO device operation rate is high, and the port inventory increase will slow down. The price has rebounded rapidly due to geopolitical conflicts [8]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,130 - 7,250 yuan/ton. Due to the high uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts, short - term price volatility will increase, and the long - term fundamentals have not improved significantly [8]. - **PVC**: On Monday, the PVC market in East, North, and South China had slight adjustments. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, and the short - term performance is weak [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and related changes of various energy - chemical products on June 17, 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [11] 3.3 Market News - Iran has requested Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Turkey, and several European countries to urge President Trump to pressure Israel to achieve a cease - fire. Trump confirmed that Iran hopes to ease the conflict. OPEC expects the global economy to remain strong in the second half of this year and has lowered its forecast for the growth of oil supply from non - OPEC countries in 2026 [13] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, and LPG from 2021 to 2025 [15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025 [33] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, and other products [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spreads and ratios between different varieties such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It presents the production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [73] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, achievements, and professional qualifications [79]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends, highlighting the performance of various sectors and the impact of geopolitical events on commodity prices, particularly gold and oil [4]. Market Performance - As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3382.14 points, down 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component is flat at 10163.07 points, and the ChiNext Index is at 2054.48 points, down 0.14%. Over 3000 stocks in the market are in the red [1]. - The stablecoin theme continues to gain traction, with solid-state batteries, oil and gas, and AI wearable concept stocks being active. In contrast, sectors like IP economy, gold, innovative drugs, computing power, and low-altitude economy are experiencing pullbacks [1]. Sector Analysis - The brain-computer interface sector shows a significant increase of 6.29%, while the battery sector rises by 2.46%. Conversely, the film and television sector declines by 1.62%, and the digital currency sector decreases by 1.84% [2]. - The home appliance sector has seen a cumulative increase of 1.9% from January to May 2025, ranking 12th among sub-industries. The sector is characterized by a recovery in domestic sales and challenges in exports [4]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict has heightened geopolitical risks, leading to short-term increases in gold and oil prices. Historical data suggests that such geopolitical events primarily serve as catalysts for short-term price movements rather than long-term trends [4]. - The article emphasizes that the main drivers of gold prices are actual interest rates and global uncertainty, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [4].