Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The fundamental factors supporting the bull market in gold and silver remain unchanged, and new supporting factors are emerging. After a period of consolidation, the prices of precious metals such as gold and silver are expected to rise again and reach new historical highs [6][7] 3) Summary by Related Content Price Performance - Last week, the prices of gold and silver first declined and then rebounded. By the end of last Friday, the international gold price returned above $4,500 per ounce, and the international silver price returned to $79.7 per ounce [2] Short - term Negative Factors - According to Bloomberg's 2026 weight configuration, the weight of silver will be significantly reduced from the current 9.6% to 3.94%, forcing funds and ETFs tracking the index to sell a large number of silver positions. The CME raised the performance margin for precious metals on January 8, which is the third such notice in nearly a month, having a short - term negative impact on precious metal prices. Before the release of the December 2025 non - farm payroll data, the market was cautious, leading to a short - term pullback in gold and silver prices [3] Impact of Non - farm Payroll Data - The December 2025 non - farm payroll report showed that the number of new jobs added was 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 70,000. The data for November was revised down from 64,000 to 56,000, and the data for October was revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000, with a total downward revision of 76,000 for the two months. The new job growth was the weakest since 2003. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the lowest level in 2025, reflecting some resilience in the labor market. However, in 2025, the total number of new jobs added was 584,000, far lower than 2 million in 2024, the weakest increase since 2020. After the release of the report, the probability of a rate cut in January dropped from 10% to nearly 0%, and the probability in March dropped to 30%, with the first expected rate cut postponed to June 2026. Although the non - farm payroll report reduced the short - term probability of a rate cut, gold prices rose instead of falling, indicating that the negative news had been priced in. In the medium term, the weakening of the US job market supports the continuation of the gold and silver bull market [4][5] Fundamental Support - The continuous rise in precious metal prices is supported by fundamentals. The international situation is becoming more volatile, which promotes the rise in gold prices. The supply - demand situation of silver remains tight, and China's restriction on refined silver exports since January 1 may exacerbate the global supply shortage [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of gold prices, with the latest price reported at $4580.10 per ounce, marking a significant increase of $62.10 or 1.37% from the previous closing price of $4518.40 per ounce [1] - In the context of macroeconomic factors, the bond market is reacting to expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by lower-than-expected job growth reported in the non-farm payrolls [3] - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is anticipated to show high inflation, which may support the Fed's decision to pause on interest rate changes, with traders predicting the next rate cut could occur in mid-2026 [3][4] Group 2 - The technical analysis of COMEX gold indicates a strong upward trend, with a weekly increase exceeding 5%, and the price successfully maintaining above the psychological level of $4500 [5] - Macro factors supporting gold prices include rising expectations for Fed rate cuts, continued gold purchases by global central banks, and a weakening US dollar [5] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that gold prices could reach $4745 per ounce by Q4 2026, although there may be short-term profit-taking pressure above $4580 [5]

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 1030, with a price of 1022.68 yuan/gram, reflecting a 2.21% increase, and have reached a high of 1031.30 yuan/gram and a low of 1003.38 yuan/gram, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1][5] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy will benefit from tax cuts, real wage growth, and rising wealth, while inflation is expected to remain moderate [3] - The report from Goldman Sachs anticipates two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in June and September due to increased uncertainty in the labor market [3] Group 2 - The structural growth of GDP in the coming years is expected to differ from the previous cycle, with productivity improvements becoming the main driver, aided by advancements in artificial intelligence [3] - The forecast for U.S. GDP growth in 2026 is optimistic, with Goldman Sachs projecting a year-on-year growth rate of 2.8% and a fourth-quarter growth rate of 2.5% [3] - The core PCE inflation rate is expected to decline to 2.1% by the end of the year, while the core CPI is projected to slow to 2% [3] Group 3 - Consumer spending is expected to grow steadily due to the dual support of tax cuts and real wage increases, alongside more favorable financial conditions and reduced policy uncertainty [4] - Corporate investment is projected to be the strongest component of GDP in 2026, driven by tax incentives [4] - The Chinese central bank has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 2306.32 tons, which, combined with expectations of U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical risk, has contributed to significant resilience in the domestic gold market [5]

Group 1 - Copper prices increased during the Asian trading session on January 12 due to concerns over tightening supply [1] - Analysts from ANZ noted that investors are worried about potential U.S. import tariffs, which could redirect copper shipments to the U.S., tightening inventories in other regions [1] - The U.S. added fewer jobs than expected in December, leading the market to closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1]

中辉有色观点 | T | | | --- | --- | | 7 | T | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国意欲对染指多国，地缘问题升级。近期公布的数据喜忧参半影响抵消。国际局 | | | 长线持有 | 势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑， | | ★★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。【990-1020】 | | 白银 | | 尽管短期 COMEX 白银有较大仓位持仓抛压，但是避险、交割逻辑、资源品紧张预期 | | | 长期持有 | 持续。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做 | | ★★ | | 多逻辑不变【18200-20000】。继续关注海外市场调仓风险。 | | | | 美非农数据不及预期，1 月美联储大概率不降息，特朗普关税政策和全球地缘冲突加 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 剧的预期下，美元和铜齐涨，短期铜震荡偏强，建议多单持有，回调逢低试多。中 | | | | 长期对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【99500 ...

| COMEX黄金 GC00Y (2026-01-12 10:57:03) 交易所: CME全属期货 | | | | | 期货行情 外汇行情 货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 4587.91 | 成交量: 6.122万 | 今开:4529.1 | 量高: 4612.7 | 滋肤幅: 1.93% | 外盘: 2.995万 | | 87.0 1.93% | 持仓量: 29.58万 | 昨德:4500.9 | 最低: 4520.8 | 涨跌额: 87.0 | 内盘: 3.127万 | 美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格东方财富网 另据央视新闻报道，2026年第一个完整交易周，在2025年表现强势的贵金属，继续牛市行情，黄金和白 银期货价格均累计上涨，但波动性明显加剧。 当地时间1月11日，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格创历史新高，一度突破每盎司4612.7美元。截至 北京时间12日10时57分，报4587.9美元/盎司，日内涨幅达1.93%。 综合多家金融机构的分析来看，本周有两个因素加剧了贵金属价格的下行压力： 一是彭博大宗商品指数本周启动年度再平衡调整，贵金属权 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have reached historic highs, with futures prices exceeding $4,612 per ounce and spot prices breaking the $4,600 mark, indicating strong market demand for gold [1][3] - Domestic gold jewelry brands in China have seen price increases, with notable rises in prices per gram: Lao Miao at ¥1,429 (up ¥22), Chow Sang Sang at ¥1,429 (up ¥19), and Lao Feng Xiang at ¥1,428 (up ¥29) [3][11] - The World Gold Council's report indicates that gold is expected to perform well in 2025, with potential price increases of 15% to 30% in 2026, driven by investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs [13] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, aimed at normalizing monetary policy rather than stimulating economic activity, are likely to push metal prices, especially precious metals, higher [13] - The report from Maike Futures suggests that the stability of the US economy under monetary easing and the performance of the dollar index will significantly impact precious metal prices, with expectations of price fluctuations in the short term [13] - CITIC Securities forecasts a strong likelihood of gold price increases due to expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the US, predicting that international gold prices could exceed $5,100 per ounce by the end of 2026 [14]

本周一早间，贵金属价格开盘便直线飙升：现货黄金价格上涨逾2%，首次站上4600美元大关，新年首月已累涨280美元；现货白银价格飙 升超5%，向上逼近84美元，创下历史新高。截至发稿，现货黄金略有回落，徘徊于4570美元上方；现货白银于83美元附近波动。 此前，美国在对委内瑞拉的行动中抓获委总统马杜罗及其夫人，并将他们带离委内瑞拉。 在全球范围内的重重不确定性和地缘政治风险，推高了黄金等传统避险资产的价格。 非农数据疲弱令降息概率提升？ 与此同时，上周五晚间公布的美国非农就业报告喜忧参半，加剧了市场对美联储降息的预期，这对黄金价格构成一定支撑。因为随着美联储 利率降低，可能会降低持有黄金的机会成本，从而支撑黄金价格。 美国劳工统计局上周五公布的数据显示，12月非农就业人数增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率4.4%，预期4.5%。 这一涨势得益于地缘政治风险上升导致避险需求增加，同时，上周五糟糕的非农就业数据也增强了市场对美联储降息的预期。 地缘政治风险上升 据央视新闻， 美国官员称，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方案。 包括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。 据悉，近期美国政府内部已召开初步会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The criminal investigation against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is perceived as an attempt to undermine the Fed's independence in setting interest rates, with Powell asserting that it is a political pressure tactic related to interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - Federal prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell concerning the renovation of the Federal Reserve building [1]. - Powell claims that the investigation is a pretext to exert political pressure on the Fed regarding interest rate decisions, emphasizing the importance of the Fed's independence from political influence [3]. - Powell indicated that the investigation is not related to his previous testimony or the renovation project itself, but rather a broader attempt to influence monetary policy [3]. Group 2: Context of Interest Rate Decisions - President Trump has been vocal about his desire for the Fed to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and reduce government borrowing costs, expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's reluctance to do so [3]. - The political climate includes discussions within the Republican Party about the potential benefits of a "Trump recession," suggesting that a recession could pressure the Fed to lower rates [4]. - Powell's term is set to end in May 2026, and Trump has indicated plans to announce Powell's successor in January 2026 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities initiates coverage on Zijin Gold International (02259) with an "outperform" rating, highlighting the company's inherited competitive advantages from Zijin Mining in the mining sector, focusing on overseas gold resources, low-cost acquisitions, and technological empowerment for strong future growth [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zijin Gold International is formed by integrating Zijin Mining's overseas gold mines, becoming a leading global gold mining company [1] - The company holds rights to nine gold mines in resource-rich areas including Central Asia, South America, Oceania, and Africa, successfully establishing a leading position in the global gold mining industry through tailored operational models and continuous resource development [1] Group 2: Resource and Production Growth - As of the end of 2024, the company's gold reserves are approximately 856 tons, ranking ninth globally, with expertise in developing low-grade and difficult-to-process gold resources [2] - The company anticipates an average annual compound growth rate of 21.4% in gold production from 2022 to 2024, driven by acquisitions of new mines and technological upgrades of existing ones [2] - Projections indicate that from 2025 to 2027, the average annual compound growth rate in gold production could exceed 15%, maintaining rapid growth momentum [2] Group 3: Expansion Projects - The company has planned a series of construction and expansion projects within existing mining areas to enhance production capacity and resource conversion [3] - Specific projects include optimizing processing techniques at the Tajikistan Jilau/Talco mine, accelerating key projects at the Australian Norton Goldfield, and increasing processing capacities at various mines in Guyana, Colombia, Suriname, and Ghana [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - The long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a sustained bull market for gold, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing global economic factors that could further elevate gold prices [4]