Group 1: Iran's Nuclear Negotiations - Iran has rejected the U.S. proposal to exchange all enriched uranium for a three-month sanctions pause, stating it is "absolutely unacceptable" [2][3] - Iranian President Pezeshkian mentioned that Iran has made necessary arrangements to respond to the activation of the "snapback sanctions" mechanism [2] - The Iranian Foreign Ministry criticized the UK, France, and Germany for their irresponsible actions regarding the nuclear agreement and recalled ambassadors for consultations [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have shown a strong performance recently, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures rising by 4.6% and domestic SC crude oil futures increasing by 3.8% over three trading days [7] - Multiple geopolitical factors, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Iranian nuclear negotiations, are contributing to the oil market's strength [7][8] - The ongoing conflict has led to concerns over energy supply, with Ukraine escalating attacks on Russian energy facilities, affecting Russia's refining capacity [8][9] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - Analysts indicate that the current support for oil prices stems from supply concerns due to geopolitical conflicts and a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories [9][10] - The market is assessing the real impact of Russian exports and the potential tightening of sanctions by the U.S. and Europe [10] - Future oil price movements are expected to be volatile, balancing between geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals, with a tendency towards a downward shift in price levels [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For precious metals, in the short - term, gold is weak while silver is strong, and in the long - term, they are expected to rise step - by - step. The reasons include short - term hedging factors such as concerns about the Fed's independence and increased stagflation risks in the US economy; geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East; the Fed's interest rate cuts and market expectations of further cuts; and the impact of the CRB commodity index and RMB exchange rate on the price [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals showed a pattern of weak gold and strong silver. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 0.01%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed up 2.27% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term hedging: Trade agreements are reached in batches, but concerns about the Fed's independence resurface; the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations are being fulfilled. Hedging attribute: Geopolitical fluctuations in regions like Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East still exist. The attempt by Trump to fire Fed Governor Cook and Cook's lawsuit against Trump for over - stepping his authority to remove her have raised concerns about the Fed's independence. Monetary attribute: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at further rate cuts. Market expectations are that the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in October remains around 90%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year is still about 2 times. Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the depreciation of the RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2]. - **Data Summary**: International prices such as Comex gold and London gold showed different changes; domestic prices of Shanghai gold and gold T + D increased; various bases, spreads, and ratios also changed; positions in Comex gold, Shanghai gold, and gold TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold also changed [2]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [5]. - **Funds and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased positions, and the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [5]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [6]. - **Data Summary**: International prices of Comex silver and London silver increased; domestic prices of Shanghai silver and silver T + D also rose; bases and spreads changed; positions in Comex silver, Shanghai silver, and silver TD had different trends; inventories in LBMA, Comex, Shanghai silver, and silver in the Shanghai Gold Exchange changed, and the total explicit inventory increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: Federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance rate all decreased by 0.25%. The Fed's total assets increased slightly. M2 increased by 0.23% year - on - year. Various bond spreads, inflation indicators, and economic growth indicators showed different changes [8][10]. - **Risk Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index decreased by 16.79%, and the VIX index increased by 6.62% [11]. - **Commodity Attributes**: The CRB commodity index increased by 1.46% [11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Expectations**: Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in different periods from 2025 to 2027 are presented in the table [12].

本周，一系列强于预期的美国经济数据给市场带来了不小的震动，仿佛向期待降息的热情泼了一盆冷 水。周四最引人注目的莫过于美国第二季度GDP增速从3.3%上修至3.8%，这一数据远超市场预期，显 示出美国经济的韧性。与此同时，上周初请失业金人数降至21.8万人，也远低于预期的23.5万人。数据 公布后，金价一度快速下探至3722美元/盎司，市场逻辑清晰可见：经济表现越好，美联储就越有底气 放缓甚至暂停降息步伐，持有黄金的成本就越高。 美联储的政策动向一直是黄金价格的晴雨表，而本周鲍威尔的表态进一步加剧了市场的谨慎情绪。美联 储主席鲍威尔周二释放审慎降息展望，指出美联储在未来利率决策中必须持续在高通胀与就业市场疲软 的风险之间取得平衡。他承认，劳动力市场的风险已经上升，通胀的风险也在上升，并补充说货币政策 是适度限制性的。其讲话内容没有提供关于未来利率走向的新线索，但被解读为对进一步宽松政策的保 守态度。金价在连续三个交易日上涨并创下历史新高3791美元/盎司后在周三转为下跌。 根据CME FedWatch工具，市场目前预计今年将再降息25个基点，其中10月份降息的可能性目前仍高达 85%。然而，美联储内部官员的观点 ...

另外，投资者还应密切关注国际贸易形势的最新动态。据最新消息披露，美国总统特朗普于当地时间周 四晚间郑重宣布："自2025年10月1日起，我将针对所有在世界其他地区生产的'重型（大型）卡车'加征 25%的关税。" 颇为耐人寻味的是，金价历经短暂下挫之后，旋即强势收复失地，最终实现收涨。究其原因，一股强劲 的"暗流"正悄然涌动——全球地缘政治局势持续紧张。以色列军队在加沙地区的军事行动不断升级，同 时对也门胡塞武装目标展开空袭，致使中东地区战火纷飞、局势动荡不安。尤为引人关注的是，欧洲外 交官向克里姆林宫发出严正警告，意味着北约已做好充分准备，将以武力应对俄罗斯侵犯领空的行为， 此举无疑将俄乌冲突的紧张态势推向了全新高峰。 与此同时，美国国内围绕政府可能停摆的议论声此起彼伏，进一步加剧了市场的不确定性。恰是在这般 纷繁复杂的"乱世"环境之下，黄金作为避险资产的属性愈发凸显、光芒四射。尽管当前经济数据透露出 一定的鹰派倾向，然而却难以撼动市场对于降息的整体预期。"每当金价出现下行走势时，总有敏锐的 投资者选择逢低吸纳，以及大量寻求资产安全保障的避险资金涌入市场托底支撑，从而构筑起一道令金 价"跌无可跌"的坚实防线。 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得21.8万人为近两月以来新低,第二季度GDP大幅上修至增长 3.8%创两年新高。美联储多位官员讲话体现谨慎态度，对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚PCE通胀数 据以及美国政府停摆的解决进展。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价收回部分涨势，美国二季度GDP增速再被上调影响联储降息节奏预期,且美元指数走 高。高盛对Grasberg不可抗力，做出今明年各减少25-27万吨的预期，比较容观，同时下调近两年 铜矿供应增速至0.2%、1.9%，至12月价格预期为9700-1.05万美元。关注沪铜仓量变动。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。9月铝表观消费不及预期，昨日铝锭社库下降2万吨，但国庆前去库尚不及往年 同期。沪铝整体驱动不足,在3月高点位置仍面临阻力。 【氧化铝】 氧化铝运行产能接近9800万吨刷新历史新高，行业库存持续上升。供应过剩明显，国内外观货继续 下调。当前价格晋豫产能现金成本尚有利润暂难触发减产，氧化铝弱势运行支撑看向6月低点2800 元附近。 综合晨报 2025年09月26日 (原油) 隔夜 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced fluctuations due to a combination of strong U.S. economic data and geopolitical tensions, with support from market buying interest and the performance of other precious metals [2][3]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent U.S. economic data exceeded expectations, with Q2 GDP growth revised up to 3.8% and initial jobless claims falling to 218,000, below the anticipated 235,000 [2]. - The strong economic indicators have bolstered the U.S. dollar, which rose to a three-week high, increasing the holding costs of gold as it is priced in dollars [2]. - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in October decreased slightly from 90% to 85%, further pressuring gold prices [2]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Active buying interest in the market has provided strong support for gold prices, with silver and platinum reaching multi-year highs, indicating sustained interest in precious metals [2]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold faced resistance at the 5-day moving average, with a critical support level at the 10-day moving average around 3705 [6]. - The recent price action shows a downward trend in daily highs, suggesting a continuation of a weak market sentiment unless gold can break above the resistance at 3762 [6]. - The four-hour chart indicates a stalemate between bulls and bears, with key levels at 3717 for support and 3762 for resistance, which will dictate the market direction [9]. Key Upcoming Events - The market is closely watching the upcoming U.S. PCE data and personal spending figures, as these will significantly influence gold's future trajectory [3][11]. - The core PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, with potential implications for Federal Reserve policy and gold prices [3].

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals - Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - September 25, 2025 [2] Report Author - Wang Wenhu [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The reduction in the expected number of Fed rate cuts in the future may cause short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks, and continuous gold purchases by central banks, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium and long term [4]. Summary by Section Part 1: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - US un - paid public debt decreased by $3.3 billion to $3.75 trillion compared to last week. The fiscal deficit in the 2025 fiscal year was $1.97 trillion, an increase of $140 billion from 2024 [11]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $29.2 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased, and the US Treasury cash account increased. The Treasury plans to increase cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September [12][14]. - The Fed's rediscount and seasonal loans to commercial banks increased, and the regular financing plan BTFP expired and dropped to $0 [16]. - The implied inflation expectations of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds increased. The 9 - month consumer one - year and five - year inflation expectations were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, flat and higher than the previous values [17][18]. - The yields of US medium - and long - term Treasury bonds rebounded, and the yields of medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury bonds increased [19][21]. - The spread between US long - and medium - term Treasury bonds widened, and the OFR financial stress index increased, with credit and stock valuations decreasing, safe assets remaining flat, and volatility increasing [23][27]. Part 2: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases increased, but the weekly rates of commercial and industrial loans and credit card loans decreased [31][32]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales decreased, but consumer spending remained stable [34][36]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index increased, and the 15 - year and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates decreased. The total sales of new and existing homes in July increased [37][39]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was lower than expected and the previous value, indicating that the employment market was performing well [40][42]. - The spreads between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields increased [43][45]. - The euro - US dollar exchange rate weakened, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate strengthened [46]. - The volatilities of the US S&P 500 and gold ETF indexes increased [48]. Part 3: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures increased, and the SPDR gold ETF holdings increased [54][56]. - The total gold inventories in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [58][60]. - The domestic - foreign gold futures spread was at a relatively low level, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities [63][65]. - The London - COMEX and Shanghai Gold Exchange - Shanghai Futures Exchange gold basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [67]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold monthly spread [69]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures decreased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [71]. - The total silver inventories in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange increased [72][73]. - The domestic - foreign silver futures spread was within a reasonable range, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [74][76]. - The COMEX and Shanghai silver basis were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [78]. - The spreads between near - and far - term contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver were negative, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver near - far - term contract spread [79]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years, and investors were advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [81]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) was far above the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, low - entry arbitrage opportunities. The "gold - copper ratio" in London and Shanghai (US) was far above (below) the 90% quantile of the past five years, and investors were advised to consider short - term, light - position, high - entry short - selling arbitrage opportunities [83].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks, with both gold and silver futures reaching historical highs [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 24, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures contract AU2512 closed at 860 CNY per gram, up 1.03%, setting a new historical record [1]. - The silver futures contract AG2513 closed at 10,397 CNY per kilogram, up 0.83%, also reaching a new high since its listing [1]. - Internationally, the London spot gold price has surged to 3,768 USD per ounce [1]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The primary drivers for the surge in precious metals prices include: 1. The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of two more cuts this year, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [1]. 2. Ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, are increasing global market demand for safe-haven assets [1]. 3. Continuous gold purchases by central banks and strong industrial demand for silver are providing solid fundamental support for precious metal prices [1][2]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Despite high gold prices, central banks globally maintained a net buying stance in July, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, reaching 2,098.43 tons by the end of August [2]. - In response to inflation concerns, European and American investors are accelerating their allocation to gold, with global physical gold ETFs seeing a net inflow of 5.5 billion USD in August [2]. Group 4: Market Risks and Recommendations - There is a technical correction pressure in the precious metals market due to the recent price increases, with potential short-term volatility if profit-taking occurs following hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials [4]. - The upcoming "National Day" holiday adds uncertainty to the market, as historical data shows no clear trend in gold and silver prices post-holiday, with a near 50% probability of price fluctuations [4]. - Analysts recommend that investors adjust their positions before the holiday, with suggestions to adopt a light position strategy, retaining a small number of gold contracts while advising to clear silver positions to mitigate risks during the long holiday [4].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 996.85 tons of gold as of September 24, 2025, reflecting a decrease of 3.72 tons from the previous trading day, indicating profit-taking by investors at high price levels [5]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of September 24, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings were 996.85 tons, down 3.72 tons from the previous day [5]. - The decrease in gold ETF holdings marks the end of a previous trend of continuous increases, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [5]. Group 2: Gold Price Movements - On September 24, gold prices peaked at just below $3780 per ounce before falling to a low of $3717.46, closing at $3735.88, a drop of $28.05 or 0.75% [5]. - The price drop followed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which dampened expectations for interest rate cuts, alongside a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising U.S. Treasury yields [5][6]. Group 3: Market Influences - Investors are closely monitoring the core PCE price index report to gauge the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, with market expectations for two 25 basis point cuts in October and December at probabilities of 93% and 79%, respectively [6]. - The potential government shutdown due to legislative gridlock adds to market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook for gold, with the RSI showing a decline and prices expected to oscillate between $3750 and $3700, awaiting new market catalysts [7]. - Key resistance levels are identified at $3791 (historical high) and $3800 (psychological level), while support is noted at $3700, with a breach potentially leading to deeper corrections [7].

摘要今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3740美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报 3735.38美元/盎司，跌幅0.04%，最高上探3751.09美元/盎司，最低触及3733.29美元/盎司。目前来看， 伦敦金短线偏向震荡走势。 今日周四（9月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金目前交投于3740美元附近，截至发稿，伦敦金最新报3735.38美 元/盎司，跌幅0.04%，最高上探3751.09美元/盎司，最低触及3733.29美元/盎司。目前来看，伦敦金短线 偏向震荡走势。 就俄乌冲突而言，美俄两国外长于纽约举行会晤，双方基于此前阿拉斯加"普特会"达成的共识，再次重 申通过和平途径解决乌克兰危机的立场，并展现出协调行动以消除冲突根源的意愿。尽管俄罗斯明确反 对乌克兰及部分欧洲国家延长战事的政策主张，但会谈整体氛围仍透露出外交沟通渠道正在重建的迹 象。值得注意的是，特朗普近期对乌态度发生显著转变——从半年前质疑乌方军事优势的言论，转为在 国际场合公开赞扬乌军表现并讥讽俄方战略，这一措辞变化虽未伴随实质政策调整，却被解读为向普京 施压以推动协议达成的策略性举动，客观上有助于缓和紧张态势。 欧盟与美国就关税问题达成 ...