彭博美元指数跌0.06%，报1209.50点，全天呈现出M形冲高回落走势，大部分时间高位震荡，06:30低开 至1208.96点刷新日低，随后在14:32刷新日高至1213.03点。 周四（6月19日）纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.14%，刷新日低至98.752点，全天呈现出M形走势，北 京时间14:32曾涨至99.157点刷新日高。 ...

美元指数19日下跌 金十数据6月20日讯，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天下跌0.04%，在汇市尾市收于98.863。截 至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1485美元，高于前一交易日的1.1475美元；1英镑兑换1.3458美元，高于 前一交易日的1.3415美元。1美元兑换145.48日元，高于前一交易日的145.05日元；1美元兑换0.8175瑞士 法郎，低于前一交易日的0.8191瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3713加元，高于前一交易日的1.3695加元；1美 元兑换9.6420瑞典克朗，低于前一交易日的9.6485瑞典克朗。 美元指数 ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1 / 8 大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，受昨日议息会议影响，贵金属继续小幅回调，伦敦 金当前交投于 3369 美元附近，伦敦银当前交投于 36.4 美元附近。受外盘驱动， 沪金主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 781.24 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 1.91%，报 8819 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数持续反弹，当前交投于 98.9 附近。 3.美债收益率：休市。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位盘整，当前交投于 7.187 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.美联储 6 月议息会议：①连续第四次维持利率不变，②点阵图显示今年降息 两次，但预计今年不降息 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall tin market is in a pattern of tight current situation and weak future expectations. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of 2025, while the demand shows a marginal weakening trend. The supply - demand balance will shift from a gap to a tight balance [2][3][90][91][92]. - In the second half of the year, the US dollar index is still expected to be weak, but the decline may slow down. The main driving factors will shift from valuation regression to the convergence of the growth rate gap between the US dollar and non - US currencies and the increasing hedging demand for US dollar assets [2][15][90]. - It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price is high in the second half of the year, with around 270,000 yuan having a certain cost - effectiveness. Option strategies such as buying put options or selling call options are recommended, and attention should also be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage strategies and inter - monthly positive arbitrage strategies [3][92]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 Tin Price Trend Review - In H1 2025, the central price of Shanghai tin slightly increased. In March, the price soared rapidly, reaching a recent high of 299,990 yuan on April 2, and then returned to around 260,000 yuan/ton. As of June 13, the increase of Shanghai tin was 8.46%, and LME tin increased by 13.27%. The large price fluctuations led to the non - commercial net long positions of LME tin breaking historical records again in March [7]. - The price fluctuations in H1 2025 can be divided into three stages: from New Year's Day to before the Spring Festival, the price fluctuated narrowly between 242,000 and 254,000 yuan; from after the Spring Festival to before Tomb - sweeping Festival, the price fluctuated and rose to a historical high of 299,900 yuan under the influence of supply - side disturbances in Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar; from after Tomb - sweeping Festival to now, the price returned to around 260,000 yuan, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) [10][11][12]. 3.2 2025 H2 Tin Fundamental Market Outlook 3.2.1 US Dollar Index - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of the US GDP will slow down marginally in 2025, with the actual GDP year - on - year growth rate expected to be 1.7% in Q2, 0.9% in Q3, and 0.6% in Q4. The year - on - year growth rate may reach a low point in Q4, and the US economy is expected to rebound marginally in 2026, with an annual real GDP growth rate of 1.5%, which may be stronger than the 1.3% in 2025 [14]. - The year - on - year growth rate of the US CPI is expected to rebound in Q3, reaching around 2.9%, and then decline from Q4 to early 2026. The US dollar index will still be weak in the second half of the year, but the decline may slow down. The main driving factors will shift from valuation regression to the convergence of the growth rate gap between the US dollar and non - US currencies and the increasing hedging demand for US dollar assets [15]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - **Myanmar**: As of now, the resumption of production in Myanmar is still uncertain. In an optimistic scenario, some mines may start exporting in August, and the import volume of tin from Myanmar to China in the second half of the year is estimated to increase by about 3,075 tons compared with the first half. In a pessimistic scenario, the incremental supply may be less than 1,000 tons [31][32]. - **Congo (Kinshasa)**: The production in Congo (Kinshasa) is recovering. It is expected that the import volume from Congo (Kinshasa) to China will increase by 3,000 - 4,000 metal tons in the second half of the year compared with the first half [36]. - **Other countries**: The production of other countries also shows an obvious increase. The import volume from other countries (excluding Congo (Kinshasa) and Myanmar) in the first half of the year still made a positive contribution of 2,611 tons [37]. - **New projects**: The new tin - mining projects planned to be put into production in 2025 have not been progressing smoothly. It is estimated that the new production capacity in 2025 will be 2,620 tons (in an optimistic scenario), and the production capacity will continue to be released from 2026 - 2027, with a total potential new supply of 38,480 tons [52][57]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - **Consumer electronics**: The global consumer electronics market is weak in 2025. The growth of global smartphone shipments is sluggish, with an expected year - on - year growth of 0.6% to reach 1.24 billion units in 2025. The ideal replacement cycle has been extended to 31.1 months. The global PC market is also not optimistic, but the emerging fields such as AI - related wearables and semiconductors are rising, partially offsetting the weakness of traditional consumer electronics [59][60][68]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the photovoltaic field, due to policy changes, there were "430" and "531" rush - installation effects in the first half of 2025, which advanced the installation demand in the third quarter. It is expected that the new domestic installation in the third quarter will be about 30GW, a year - on - year decrease of 49%. The annual new domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to be about 240 - 250GW, with a year - on - year growth rate of around - 10%. The new overseas photovoltaic installation is expected to be about 270GW, with a year - on - year growth rate slowing down to only about 1% [81][82][83]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2025, the global tin supply is estimated to be 374,000 tons, and the total global demand is 381,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8%. There is a small supply - demand gap of 7,000 tons globally. In China, the supply is about 186,000 tons, and the demand is about 189,000 tons, with a potential supply - demand gap of 3,000 tons. The fundamentals will weaken in the second half of the year compared with the first half, with supply increasing by 2.6% and demand decreasing by 4.1%, and the supply - demand balance will shift from a gap to a tight balance [3][92]. - Investment strategies include short - selling when the price is high in the second half of the year, with around 270,000 yuan having a certain cost - effectiveness. Option strategies such as buying put options or selling call options are recommended, and attention should also be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage strategies and inter - monthly positive arbitrage strategies [3][92].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: June 19, 2025 [3] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report, Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1][2] - Analysts: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [3] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock indices closed down collectively today. For example, the CSI 300 Index closed down 0.82%. The trading volume of the two markets increased by 595.57 billion yuan. The stock index futures all declined with increased volume [4]. - Futures Market Details: The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM had intraday declines of -0.80%, -0.63%, -1.03%, and -1.16% respectively. The trading volumes were 117,508 lots, 56,937 lots, 105,878 lots, and 228,414 lots respectively, with a month-on-month increase. The open interests were 242,993 lots, 83,607 lots, 227,844 lots, and 336,516 lots respectively, also with a month-on-month increase [7]. - Spot Market Details: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.21%. The ratio of rising to falling stocks was 0.15. The trading volume of the two markets was 12,506.24 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 595.57 billion yuan [8]. Group 3: Important Information - Fed's Interest Rate Decision: The Fed announced its June interest rate decision early today, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations [5]. Group 4: Core View - Market Pressure: The Fed's latest interest rate decision to hold steady, along with Powell's hawkish remarks, led to a rise in the US dollar index, increasing external pressure. Coupled with the turbulent external situation and the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the index was under pressure and oscillated downward today [6]. - Market Outlook: Currently, the index lacks a driving force and faces significant resistance to upward movement. However, the management is determined to stabilize the market, so the downside space of the stock index is limited. After the market digests the increased external pressure, it is expected to return to range-bound trading and wait for a new driving force [6]. Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold positions and wait and see [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market is influenced by factors such as Fed's stance, US economic data, and geopolitical uncertainties. Gold is in a long - term bullish trend, while short - term fluctuations are affected by geopolitical variables. Silver shows strong rebounds but requires careful position control [5][6]. - In the base metals market, copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to global copper supply shortages and strategic importance, but short - term risks need to be watched. Zinc has a long - term supply - increase and demand - weak situation, while short - term it has limited downside due to cost support. Aluminum shows short - term strength in the near - month but faces supply - related pressure. Nickel is under pressure due to supply and downstream inventory issues [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply surplus persists, and prices are expected to decline due to increasing inventory expectations [16]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold slightly declined as geopolitical situations did not expand. Silver showed strong rebounds. SHFE gold was at 785.42, up 0.04% from the previous value, and SHFE silver was at 9045, up 2.04% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Fed kept rates unchanged, US economic data weakened, and there were geopolitical uncertainties. In the long - term, the trend of reducing dollar dependence and fiscal - monetary easing remains, supporting the long - term bullish view of gold [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, consider long - term positions when the opportunity arises, with short - term attention on the 800 resistance. For silver, pay attention to recent high resistance and control positions [6]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. The main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78610 yuan/ton, down 0.01% [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas copper ore supply is tight, and there are concerns about overseas soft - squeeze risks. The consumption off - season has led to downstream hesitation, but green copper demand has offset some traditional demand shortages [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short - term long positions cautiously and take partial profits at high prices. Be optimistic about copper in the long - term. SHFE copper should be monitored in the range of [78000, 79500], and LME copper in the range of [9650, 9750] dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated around the upper integer level. The main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 21955 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Downstream demand has weakened, and the start - up rate of zinc - related enterprises has declined [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily observe in the short - term. In the long - term, take short positions on rallies. SHFE zinc should be monitored in the range of [21800, 22200], and LME zinc in the range of [2650, 2750] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were strong in the near - month, and alumina showed a slight stabilization trend. The main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20680 yuan/ton, up 1.08% [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: In June, the reduction in domestic aluminum ingot casting led to inventory depletion. The overseas bauxite supply is high, and the alumina supply surplus continues [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for SHFE aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main contract should be monitored in the range of [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel showed a weak trend. The main contract of SHFE nickel closed at 118480 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: The increase in nickel ore shipments from the Philippines and the decline in Indonesian nickel ore prices have weakened cost support. Stainless steel inventory pressure has resurfaced as the terminal enters the off - season [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short positions on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption. The main contract of nickel should be monitored in the range of [117000 - 122000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and rose, with an intraday high - then - low movement [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply surplus of lithium carbonate persists. During the off - season of terminal demand, production has recovered to a high level, and inventory is expected to increase, driving prices down [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies in the range of [59000 - 61000] [16].

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金十数据6月19日讯，美元指数DXY短线一度下挫25点，现报98.55。 美元指数 ...