12月1日亚洲交易时段，伦敦现货白银价格再创历史新高，盘中首次突破每盎司57美元，截至北京时间上午10点，伦敦现货银价报每盎司 57.7美元，涨幅约2.3%。今年以来，国际银价已上涨超90%，大幅跑赢黄金。 而从实物供需层面，近年来，白银产量下降导致供应不足的缺口一直存在。全球交易所白银库存已降至近十年来低位，而光伏、电动汽车 等工业领域需求持续增长，进一步加剧现货市场紧张。在租赁市场，白银短期租赁利率飙升，凸显了市场上白银供应的短缺。有分析认 为，目前黄金与白银价格比约为75∶1，显著高于过去二十年约60∶1的平均水平，这表明白银在贵金属板块中相对被低估，美国银行日前已将 2026年白银目标价上调至每盎司65美元。 责编:王时丹 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 （来源：央视财经） 分析指出，近期市场对美联储降息预期升高，这为白银及整个贵金属市场提供了坚实支撑。芝商所美联储观察工具的最新数据显示，市场 预计美联储在12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。并且，被认为持鸽派立场的哈西特成为下任美联储主席热门人选，进一步增强了市场对未 来低利率环境的信心。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International copper and Shanghai copper prices have both risen over 2%, with Shanghai copper reaching a new high since its listing, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and positive macroeconomic sentiment [1] Group 1 - The recent rise in copper prices is attributed to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has created a warmer macroeconomic environment [1] - Domestic news indicates that there will be a reduction in production capacity in the smelting sector, contributing to the upward movement of copper prices [1]

12月1日亚洲交易时段，伦敦现货白银价格再创历史新高，盘中首次突破每盎司57美元，截至北京时间 上午10点，伦敦现货银价报每盎司57.7美元，涨幅约2.3%。今年以来，国际银价已上涨超90%，大幅跑 赢黄金。 来源：央视财经 而从实物供需层面，近年来，白银产量下降导致供应不足的缺口一直存在。全球交易所白银库存已降至 近十年来低位，而光伏、电动汽车等工业领域需求持续增长，进一步加剧现货市场紧张。在租赁市场， 白银短期租赁利率飙升，凸显了市场上白银供应的短缺。有分析认为，目前黄金与白银价格比约为 75∶1，显著高于过去二十年约60∶1的平均水平，这表明白银在贵金属板块中相对被低估，美国银行日前 已将2026年白银目标价上调至每盎司65美元。 分析指出，近期市场对美联储降息预期升高，这为白银及整个贵金属市场提供了坚实支撑。芝商所美联 储观察工具的最新数据显示，市场预计美联储在12月降息25个基点的概率为87.4%。并且，被认为持鸽 派立场的哈西特成为下任美联储主席热门人选，进一步增强了市场对未来低利率环境的信心。 ...

Group 1 - London spot silver prices reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce for the first time, with a current price of $57.7 per ounce, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.3% [1] - Year-to-date, international silver prices have risen over 90%, significantly outperforming gold [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have increased, providing strong support for silver and the entire precious metals market, with an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [1] Group 2 - A persistent supply shortage in silver has been noted due to declining production levels, with global exchange silver inventories at nearly a decade low [3] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating tightness in the spot market [3] - The current gold-to-silver price ratio is approximately 75:1, significantly higher than the 20-year average of 60:1, indicating that silver may be undervalued within the precious metals sector [3] - Bank of America has raised its 2026 silver price target to $65 per ounce [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term news boosts oil prices, but long - term inventory pressure limits the rebound space and sustainability of oil prices [2] - Precious metals are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts and tight spot supply, showing high volatility [3] - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - Aluminum prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions and macro - sentiment dominance [5] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, short - term news boosts prices, but long - term inventory pressure exists [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and supply will be loose in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant [20] - **Asphalt**: Demand in some areas drives inventory reduction, but overall, year - end supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Urea**: Short - term market is strong due to downstream procurement, but long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [22] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and port inventory may suppress the market [23] - **Pure Benzene**: Price is in a volatile pattern due to supply - demand factors [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Cost support is strengthened, and supply - demand is in a tight balance [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International oil prices drive futures price rebounds, but spot demand is hard to release [26] - **PVC &烧碱**: PVC is in a low - level range, and烧碱 is in a weak operation [27] - **PX & PTA**: PX price rebounds, PTA is cost - driven, and supply - demand situations vary in the short and medium - term [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is marginally improved, but mid - term weakness remains [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle - chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [30] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver drives the strength of precious metals, and platinum is favored [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are expected to rise, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - **Aluminum**: Prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions [5] - **Zinc**: Prices are in a range - bound state, with strong bottom support [8] - **Tin**: Prices may have short - term space, but mid - term fundamentals are general [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Bottom support is expected to move down [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Bottom support will be tested [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices rebound, but demand is weak, and supply pressure is gradually relieved [13] - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to be volatile, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [14] - **Coke**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [16] Agriculture - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and domestic supply is sufficient. Observe the callback and look for long - position opportunities [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil supply - demand is weak but marginally improving; soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term drivers are not significant, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a high - level shock, and pay attention to new - grain sales and trade agreements [38] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton exports are improving, and domestic new - cotton sales are fast. Look for hedging opportunities [41] - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi is expected to be good [42] - **Apples**: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [43] - **Timber**: Low inventory supports prices, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [44] - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [45] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFI European route shows weak price increase, and different contracts of the container shipping index have different trends [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index**: Short - term macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and maintain a wait - and - see and defensive strategy [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures show a differentiated performance, and there is a weak - volatile pattern [47]

Group 1: Global Market Trends - The S&P 500 index rose by 3.73%, while developed market stock indices increased by 3.41% during the week of November 24-28, 2025[7] - Commodities saw a general increase, with COMEX copper up by 5.64% and London gold rising by 3.80%[7] - The US dollar index fell by 0.71%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.44% against the dollar[7] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing new orders (excluding aircraft) grew by 4.02% year-on-year in September, indicating continued growth[8] - The US retail and food service sales increased by 4.26% year-on-year in September, but the growth rate has slowed compared to previous months[12] - The US housing price index fell to 338.25 in September, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.36%, down from 1.57% in August[8] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has surged to 80%[20] - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that current interest rates are appropriately set, with no immediate need for adjustment[21] - The Bank of Japan's December rate hike expectations have not increased, with a cautious stance from its committee members[25]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月01日 (原油) 周日OPEC+8个主要产油国决定，维持11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年Q1暂停增产。委内瑞拉抗议 美方企图以武力控制其石油。伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队在波斯湾水域扣押了一艘载走私燃料的外籍油 轮。短期消息面对油价有所提振，外盘油价周一盘初走高1%。中长期基本面库存宽松压力仍存，油 价反弹空间及持续性或有限。 (责金属) 周五市场并未有显著的利多消息,但国际银价大涨超过6%带动贵金属整体强势,体现其在美联储降 息预期增强背景下金融属性和现货偏紧的双重支撑及高波动特点。 铂肥上市伊始国内投资者对铂的 青睐度更高，相对走势上铂强于叙,倾向多铂空肥。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展。 【铜】 上周五伦铜再创高，沪铜盘中增仓跟涨，短线贵金属提供溢价情绪，中长线市场持续看涨来年铜均 价上涨，流动性、绿碳与智算相结合的需求以及矿端低加工费博弈向冶炼环节传导，且美伦价差可 能继续吸引去美库存,共同支撑涨势。短线多单持有,关注资金变动。 (铝) 周五贵金属和铜太幅上行,沪铝跟涨。近期铝锭有所去库,总体李节性表现偏中性,现货维持贴 水， ...

2025年12月1日 中泰证券研究所 分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明 【市场回顾】 证券研究报告 信用业务周报 如何看待近期科技板块再度反弹？ 图表：市场表现回顾 数据来源：Wind，中泰证券研究所 2 【市场观察】如何看待上周科技板块反弹？ ➢ 一、如何看待上周科技板块反弹？ 3 ➢ 上周市场热点集中在TMT等科技板块，科技板块在超跌背景下迎来反弹，通信设备、电子元件、 游戏、消费电子等领涨两市。通信、电子、传媒行业周度涨幅分别达到8.70%、6.05%、4.23%， 均已收复上周跌幅，其中通信已强势接近10月底高点。在申万二级行业中，通信设备、电子元件 、游戏、消费电子尤其强势，周涨幅均在5%以上。光模块CPO、光芯片、光通信、光电路交换机 OCS、6G等多个通信主题指数涨幅超过10%。光库科技、通宇通讯、特发信息等产业链个股单周涨 超30%。 ➢ 上周A股科技板块反弹的背后，有政策面和海外因素的双重驱动。国内宏观经济数据与监管机构 释放积极信号。1-10月全国规模以上工业企业利润 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of the BPI index in November, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing narratives in various industries, particularly in metals and commodities [1][4]. Group 1: BPI Index and Commodity Prices - The BPI index recorded 878 points as of November 28, reflecting a 1.0% increase compared to the end of October, with energy and non-ferrous indices rising by 0.4% and 2.7% respectively [1][4][5]. - In November, the pricing of bulk commodities showed mixed results, with thermal coal and glass futures prices increasing by 7.0% and 7.6% month-on-month, while rebar futures fell by 0.6% [9][11]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The housing prices in four major cities continued to adjust, with the second-hand housing price index decreasing by 0.7% to 1.5% compared to the last week of October [11]. Group 3: Emerging Manufacturing Prices - Prices for upstream materials in emerging manufacturing sectors, such as storage chips and lithium carbonate, remained strong, while the photovoltaic industry saw a decline, with the SPI index dropping by 2.6% [2][12]. - The DXI index for the DRAM memory industry rose by 70.7%, and lithium hexafluorophosphate prices surged by 67.4% month-on-month [2][12]. Group 4: Shipping and Logistics - In the shipping sector, the CCFI index increased by 9.8%, while the WCID indices for routes to Los Angeles and New York fell by 14.3% and 23.3% respectively [14]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 30.2%, indicating a recovery in dry bulk shipping rates [14]. Group 5: Food Prices - Food prices generally increased, with the average wholesale price of pork rising by 0.2% and key vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% [17].

12月1日上午，白银期货主力合约开盘便跳空上涨超1.7%。 随后高开高走，日内一度涨超7%。截至 11:06，白银期货主力合约报13430元/千克，涨7.07%，已经连续5个交易日飘红，累计上涨幅度超13%。 上周五，纽交所COMEX白银期货创历史新高，今天继续创新高。 所谓金银比，就是黄金价格除以白银价格，由于黄金金融属性强而商品属性弱，白银兼具商品属性与金 融属性，因此金银比可以看作剔除了金融属性的、具备商品属性的指标。 由于PPI和CPI的共振回升预期，以及全球财政和货币配合的格局，招商期货看好明年周期尤其是有色和 化工的行情。 盘面上，工业金属方向领涨，白银有色（601212.SH）、闽发铝业（002578.SZ）等多只个股涨停。 从美联储降息趋势上看，长江期货认为，白银将震荡运行。此前美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言，市场预 期12月降息概率大幅升温，市场预期明年降息次数增加，贵金属价格反弹，白银表现强劲。美国经济数 据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性存在担忧，央行购金和去美元化并未改变。在降息 预期和避险需求的支撑下，白银现货延续短缺，预计白银价格仍将具有支撑。 从金银比上看，招商期货指出， ...