5月以来，央行宣布下调基准利率10个基点。紧接着，银行又下调了住房贷款利率，下调了存款利率。就在前几天，保险公司也下调了产品利 率。 不过这次降息后，大家却发现一个让人痛苦的现象。 手里的财富似乎不仅没有增加，反倒还在缩水。 比如，最典型的就是这几天的银行产品，收益普遍在下跌。 大家都很担心。 因为，原本以为存款收益越来越低，然后就存款搬家到银行理财产品，就是图多一点点的稳健收益。可是，令人意外的是，这些东西好像远远 没有宣传中的那么稳。 伏尔泰曾说过， 常识并不是大家都知道的，常见的东西 。生活中、投资里也都经常会有这样的怪事，原因在于大家没有透过谎言看到事情的 本质。 降息本来是一件好事。 接下来将告诉大家如何在波动中，不再踩坑，让财富像雪球一样越滚越大！ 它波动得很剧烈。 据21世纪经济报道（7月29日），上周负收益产品数量占比显著抬升，15.54%的人民币公募产品近一周收益为负。即使风险等级为R1（低风 险）、R2（中低风险）的固定收益类产品也出现单日收益为负的情况。 特别是六月、七月进场的朋友，简直是亏麻了，上来就是1个百分点的亏。很多人，根本没有见过这样的世面。 从数据上来看，上周固定收益类各期限 ...

12月美国联邦基金利率期货上涨6个基点，暗示年底前降息65个基点。 ...

周度报告-黄金 美国 7 月非农爆冷，黄金震荡收涨 [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] 黄金：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 伦敦金涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.22%，通胀 预期 2.33%，实际利率降至 1.88%，美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，标普 500 指数跌 2.36%，离岸人民币小幅贬值，沪金小幅溢价。 贵 金 属 金价先跌后涨最终收涨，随着 8 月 1 日对等关税生效日的带来， 美国陆续与贸易伙伴达成协议，墨西哥关税协议将延长 90 天，加 拿大关税从 25%升至 35%，韩国加征 15%关税，印度加征 255 关 税，中美搞成谈判意在将关税再度延长 90 天，上午实质进展。整 体而言关税引发的避险情绪有限，当前的不确定性远低于 4 月， 叠加美联储 7 月利率会议按兵不动，美联储主席鲍威尔表态鹰派， 黄金出现回调，一度跌破 3300 美金以及 60 日均线。但美联储内 部分歧巨大，鲍曼和沃勒两位理事投票降息，后续特朗普也将提 名更加倾向降息的人选。美国经济数据喜忧参半，首先是二季度 GDP 数 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 非农不及预期，美元转向弱势 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好下降，股市多数下跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率降至 4.22%。美元指数涨 1.54%至 99.1，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币跌 0.36%，欧元跌 1.34%，英镑跌 1.2%，日元 涨 0.2%，瑞郎跌 1.08%，澳元、新西兰元、比索、兰特、泰铢 均跌超 1%，金价涨 0.8%至 3363 美元/盎司，VIX 指数升至 20.38，现货商品指数收跌，布油涨 2.9%至 71.4 美元/桶。 ★市场交易逻辑 外 汇 期 货 8 月 1 日对等关税落地前美国陆续与韩国等国家达成协议，中美 关税谈判意在延期 90 天。二季度美国 GDP 增速从-0.5%反弹至 3%，好于市场预期的 2.4%，个人消费支出增速反弹至 1.4%，净 进口从一季度对美国经济的拖累转为最大增速贡献来源，同时 企业开始消化此前囤积的库存，库存投资下降，美国大而美法 案通过后，政府发债增加，三季度融资计划超 1 万亿美元，四 季度亦有 5500 亿美元的净发行计划，下半年财政支出预计对经 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the significant downward revision of June non-farm data reflects substantial disruptions to the U.S. economy due to tariffs, suggesting that the resilience of the U.S. economy should not be overestimated, and the direction of interest rate cuts remains highly certain [2][4][17] - In July, non-farm employment increased by 73,000, which is below the expected 110,000, and the previous value was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating pressure on the U.S. job market [6][11][22] - The unemployment rate in July rose to 4.2%, up from 4.1% in the previous month, while the average hourly wage increased by 3.9% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.8% [1][6][31] Group 2 - In July, the financial activities, healthcare, and retail sectors added 15,000, 79,000, and 16,000 jobs respectively, showing a stable demand in the service sector [3][22] - The manufacturing sector has seen negative job growth for three consecutive months, indicating insufficient production willingness among enterprises [3][22] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.2% in July, down from 62.3% in the previous month, with a notable decline in employment willingness among younger demographics [26][31] Group 3 - The downward revision of June non-farm data was primarily due to significant adjustments in government, leisure, and hotel employment, which collectively accounted for a 90,000 downward revision, representing nearly 70% of the total revision [12][17] - The cumulative downward revision for May and June non-farm data reached 258,000, while the July employment figure of 73,000 is a significant drop compared to the average monthly increase of over 100,000 in the first quarter [4][17] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times in 2025, with an 80% probability for the first cut in September [4][21][37] Group 4 - The average hourly wage growth has shown an upward trend, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in July, higher than the previous 0.2% [37][39] - The service sector's job growth in July rebounded to 96,000, compared to a previous value of 16,000, indicating a relatively stable demand in the service industry [22][31] - The overall economic environment remains challenging, with second-quarter GDP growth at 3.0%, driven by a "import rush" effect, while core GDP growth has declined [18][22]

Core Points - The release of non-farm payroll data has significantly increased expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a September rate cut soaring from 40% to 90%, and some traders betting on a direct 50 basis point cut [1] - The urgency for a rate cut is attributed not to the July non-farm data, but rather to substantial downward revisions of the May and June non-farm data to single digits, indicating a potential misrepresentation of economic stability [1] - New York Fed President Williams, described as an ally of Fed Chair Powell, expressed a "very open-minded" approach to the upcoming September rate cut meeting, suggesting a shift in communication strategy from Powell [1] - Former President Trump has made statements suggesting that if Powell does not cut rates, the Federal Reserve Board should "take control," indicating potential political pressure on the Fed [1] - With two out of seven Fed Board members publicly supporting a rate cut and a recent resignation creating a vacancy to be filled by Trump, there could be a shift in the board's dynamics, potentially leading to a 3 vs 3 split on rate cut decisions [1] - The possibility of a non-independent Fed is raising concerns in the market, as political influence could disrupt traditional monetary policy [1]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International gold prices increased by over 1% on August 1, with a weekly gain of nearly 2%, closing at $3399.80 per ounce, marking a 1.53% rise and reaching a weekly high [1] - Global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase, and a 45% increase in value compared to the previous year [3] - The strong performance of gold is attributed to heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks, with a 26% increase in dollar gold prices this year, outperforming most major asset classes [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - U.S. non-farm payrolls unexpectedly rose by 147,000 in June, exceeding economists' expectations and alleviating pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.05% to 99.0169, reflecting market reactions to employment data and interest rate expectations [2] - European stock indices experienced declines due to concerns over tariffs and global economic slowdown, with the UK FTSE 100 down 0.70%, France's CAC40 down 2.91%, and Germany's DAX down 2.66% [5] Group 3: Oil Market Developments - International oil prices fell on August 1 due to potential production increases by OPEC and its allies, with light crude oil futures down 2.79% and Brent crude down 2.83% [6] - Despite the daily production increase discussions, U.S. oil prices saw a cumulative rise of 3.33% for the week [6]

Core Viewpoint - Hamas has stated it will not disarm until an independent Palestinian state with full sovereignty is established, emphasizing that armed resistance is a legitimate right as long as Israeli occupation continues [1][6]. Group 1: Hamas's Position - Hamas responded to U.S. Middle East envoy Witte's claim that they are "ready to disarm," asserting that disarmament is contingent upon the restoration of national rights, particularly the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital [1]. - The statement from Hamas highlights that armed resistance is a legitimate right of the Palestinian people as long as Israeli occupation persists [1]. Group 2: Current Negotiation Status - According to Israeli sources, the atmosphere is currently not conducive to restarting ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, with Israeli officials opposing agreements focused solely on the release of some hostages [3]. - The future of negotiations is believed to depend on Israel's so-called "alternative options," with discussions of a potential full military occupation of Gaza being considered [4]. Group 3: U.S. Involvement and Humanitarian Issues - Hamas criticized Witte's visit to a humanitarian distribution point in Gaza as a "pre-arranged farce," aimed at misleading public opinion and providing political cover for Israeli actions [6][7]. - The statement from Hamas accused the U.S. government of being complicit in what they describe as a "century crime" against the people of Gaza, calling for an end to U.S. support for Israeli policies and actions [7].

1. 7月基金发行超900亿份，科创债ETF成亮点。 7月基金发行即将落幕，整体呈现回暖态势。从数据来看， 以基金成立日作为统计标准，7月已有115只新基金成立，合计发行份额超900亿份。在权益市场的提振和科 创债ETF等债券创新产品的激励下，7月股票和债券型基金的份额占比均有提升，仅混合型产品份额下降。在 业内人士看来，后续市场风险偏好仍有望处于上行阶段，权益类资产存在配置性价比。 2. 债市"冲击波"：谁在偷笑？谁在颤抖？基金公司打出应对"组合拳"。 股债"跷跷板"效应正持续发酵—— 股市、商品市场持续向好，债基却深陷泥沼，部分流出资金正进入权益市场。债券基金经理们开始多线发 力：降久期去杠杆，提前预防净值波动；紧盯散户情绪，做好流动性应对措施；挽留机构客户，缓解赎回压 力。 3. 54 只权益基金近一年业绩翻倍，广发基金上榜数量居首。 截至 7 月 25 日收盘的最近一年，市场上共有 54 只基金收益 率超过 100% ，其中，主动型基金有 34 只。权益投资能力突出的基金管理人也再度在本轮行情中交出了较为亮眼的投资 成绩单。以广发基金为例，在近一年收益率翻倍的 54 只基金中，广发基金旗下有 6 只产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has triggered significant turmoil in global financial markets, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and leading to a sharp decline in investor confidence [1][6]. Group 1: Resignation Impact - Adriana Kugler resigned from her position at the Federal Reserve, effective August 8, 2025, five months earlier than her term was set to end [2]. - Her resignation coincided with a critical Federal Reserve meeting where she was absent due to "personal matters," leading to speculation about her departure [1][3]. - The resignation has been perceived as an opportunity for the Trump administration to appoint a more dovish member to the Federal Reserve Board, potentially shifting the balance of power within the board [3][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Kugler's resignation, the U.S. stock market experienced a dramatic loss, with a reported evaporation of one trillion dollars in value [6]. - The Dow Jones index fell by 1.23%, the S&P 500 dropped by 1.60%, and the Nasdaq plummeted by 2.24% on the same day [6]. - The dollar index also saw a significant decline of 1.37%, marking the largest single-day drop of the year [6]. Group 3: Economic Data and Political Context - The resignation was compounded by disappointing economic data, including a non-farm payroll report showing only 73,000 new jobs added in July, far below the expected 115,000 [5]. - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and previous months' job data were significantly revised downward, intensifying market fears of an economic downturn [5]. - Trump's actions, including the dismissal of the Labor Statistics Bureau chief, raised alarms about potential political interference in economic data reporting [5][6].