分析指出，该数据未剔除价格因素影响。同期，意大利11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨1.1%，意 味着实际零售销售增长可能极为有限，甚至接近停滞。名义上的消费扩张在很大程度上被通胀所抵消， 家庭实际购买力提升空间受限。 从结构来看，非食品类商品销售表现略强于食品类。11月非食品类零售销售环比增长0.7%，而食品类 增长0.5%，显示在价格压力下，消费者对非必需消费品的需求仍具一定韧性，或反映服务与耐用品相 关支出有所恢复。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京1月9日电 意大利国家统计局（ISTAT）最新数据显示，2025年11月，意大利季调后零售销 售环比增长0.5%，与10月增幅持平，连续第二个月实现正增长。未经季节调整的同比数据显示，11月 零售销售同比增长1.3%，增幅亦与前月一致，表明名义消费支出保持稳定扩张态势。 尽管面临通胀和实际收入增长乏力的挑战，零售销售连续两个月的环比上升表明意大利国内消费活动仍 具备基础支撑，对2025年四季度经济增长构成一定积极因素。 展望未来，消费可持续性将高度依赖于实际可支配收入的变化以及通胀走势。若工资增长未能跟上物价 涨幅，或能源与食品价格再度上行，当前的消费动能恐难 ...

CPI Insights - In December, the CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and rose by 0.8% year-on-year (previous value: 0.7%) [1] - Core CPI also rose by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: -0.1%) and maintained a year-on-year growth of 1.2% for four consecutive months [1] - The main driver for the food CPI was the seasonal increase in fresh fruit prices, while fresh vegetable prices saw a significant decrease in growth [5] PPI Insights - The PPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month (previous value: 0.1%) but showed a year-on-year decline of -1.9% (previous value: -2.2%) [13] - The structural characteristics of PPI indicate an improvement in overall economic conditions, with the PMI at 50.1% [13] - Rising prices in industrial goods are influenced by geopolitical risks and increased demand in sectors like new energy and AI [2] Market Outlook - The outlook for CPI in 2025 is cautiously optimistic, driven by the upward trend in consumer goods prices due to rising raw material costs [2] - The long-term forecast suggests that pig prices may gradually enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, impacting food CPI [5] - The overall improvement in industrial product prices reflects a recovery in market conditions, supported by various economic policies [13]

Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a robust global economic growth of 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 2.6% [1][2] - The US economy is expected to grow by 2.8%, significantly higher than the market expectation of 2.0%, driven by reduced tariff drag, tax cuts, and a more accommodative financial environment [1][4] - China's economy is projected to grow by 4.8%, exceeding the market forecast of 4.5%, with strong exports offsetting domestic demand weakness [1][2] - The Eurozone is anticipated to grow by 1.3%, above the consensus of 1.1%, supported by fiscal stimulus in Germany and strong growth in Spain [1][2][7] US Economic Forecast - The US economy is expected to benefit from tax cuts, a loose financial environment, and reduced tariff drag, leading to a significant outperformance compared to market consensus [4] - Consumers are projected to receive approximately $100 billion in additional tax refunds in the first half of the year, accounting for 0.4% of annual disposable income [4] - Despite global GDP growth, the labor market remains weak, with employment growth rates in developed economies below pre-pandemic levels [6] Eurozone Economic Forecast - The Eurozone faces structural weaknesses exacerbated by competition from China, including population decline and high energy costs, yet is expected to grow at a "considerable" rate of 1.3% in 2026 [7] - Germany's GDP growth is expected to benefit from significant federal government spending increases, while Southern Europe, particularly Spain, is projected to maintain robust growth [7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation in the US is expected to moderate, with core PCE inflation currently at 2.3%, and factors such as falling oil prices and increased productivity contributing to a downward trend [8] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower its policy rate by 50 basis points to a range of 3-3.25% in 2026, as inflation concerns are expected to be resolved [10] - The Bank of England is also expected to implement quarterly rate cuts, reaching 3% by the third quarter of 2026 [10] Market Implications - The basic predictions from Goldman Sachs are favorable for stocks and many emerging market assets, with the market already pricing in improved US economic growth and declining inflation [10] - However, concerns about a weak labor market potentially leading to recession fears and skepticism regarding the value of AI-related revenues may increase market volatility [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that China's December CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, below the expected 0.9%, while the PPI decreased by 1.9%, better than the expected -2.0% [1][26][40] - December CPI's year-on-year increase is attributed to rising food prices and improved domestic supply-demand relationships, with PPI's decline narrowing due to ongoing capacity management in key industries [2][27][46] - The overall improvement in inflation is supported by the implementation of year-end policy financial tools and accelerated infrastructure projects, leading to a slight recovery in domestic demand [3][27][46] Group 2 - Food prices significantly contributed to the CPI increase, with food inflation rising from 0.2% to 1.1%, impacting CPI by approximately 0.17 percentage points [9][34] - Core CPI remained stable at a high of 1.2%, driven by increased consumer demand and rising prices of gold jewelry, which surged by 68.5% [10][35] - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 1.9% reflects a narrowing of price drops in several sectors, including coal mining and lithium battery manufacturing, indicating a positive trend in market competition [15][40][41] Group 3 - The domestic demand remains weak, but the ongoing capacity management in key industries is expected to support price increases in related sectors, leading to a gradual narrowing of PPI declines [22][46] - The anticipated recovery in CPI and PPI is expected to enhance corporate earnings, providing support for stock market fundamentals, while also raising long-term inflation expectations that could negatively impact bond prices [23][47]

格隆汇1月9日｜高盛认为，鉴于通胀关切将是中期选举前的关键问题，特朗普政府将铜进口关税的决定 推迟到明年的风险加大。该行的基准预期仍是2026年年中宣布15%的关税，并于2027年落实，但对这一 预期的信心水平降低。高盛将第一季度LME铜价平均价格预期从每吨11550美元上调至13000美元；但 预计到年底价格仍将回落至每吨11000美元。 （责任编辑：宋政 HN002） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点 来源：金十数据 美国财政部长贝森特周四强烈表达了政府对降低利率的渴望，称这是未来经济增长的关键。与此同时， 美联储理事米兰呼吁2026年降息150个基点以提振就业。 贝森特将在明尼苏达经济俱乐部发表的演讲中，对特朗普的经济议程表示支持，并指出更宽松的货币政 策将为未来的收益铺平道路。 据政府内部获取的演讲摘要，贝森特表示："降息将对每一位明尼苏达人的生活产生切实影响。这是实 现更强劲经济增长的唯一缺失要素。因此，美联储不应拖延。" 美联储在2025年的最后四个月内连续批准了三次降息，共计0.75个百分点，将基准利率降至3.5%-3.75% 的区间。 然而，预计今年的降息步伐将大幅放缓。市场目前定价仅为两次降息，而美联储官员的最新预测则指向 仅有一次。 这一局面的一个变数是美联储今年将迎来一位新主席，贝森特正负责这一遴选过程。现任主席鲍威尔的 任期将于5月结束，财长已将候选人名单缩减至五人。 虽然低利率可能带来通胀重燃的风险，但也可能有助于支撑放缓的劳动力市场。 贝森特表示："2025年，特朗普总统通过历史性地通过'大而美法案'（One Big Beautiful Bill） ...

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is currently trading around 1.3435, slightly above the low reached earlier in the week, with the market in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payroll report [1] - The performance of new job additions, unemployment rate, and wage growth in the non-farm payroll data will be crucial for assessing the tightness of the US labor market, directly impacting inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [3] - If the non-farm data significantly exceeds expectations, it may strengthen market bets on the Fed extending its tightening cycle or raising terminal rates, providing short-term support for the dollar and increasing downward pressure on GBP/USD [3] Group 2 - Conversely, if the data is weak, it could trigger expectations of economic slowdown and policy shifts, limiting further dollar gains and potentially alleviating downward pressure on the pound [3] - The interest rate futures market has shown adjustments in rate hike expectations, indicating that investors are reassessing the magnitude and duration of the tightening path, which in turn constrains the dollar's unilateral momentum [3] - The recent statements from the Bank of England have downplayed the necessity for further aggressive rate hikes, suggesting that current rates may be close to "neutral," which neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [3] Group 3 - The market will closely monitor UK inflation data, particularly in the services sector and wage growth, to validate the assessment of "rates nearing neutrality" [4] - If price pressures remain above expectations, the possibility of the central bank retaining further tightening could intermittently support the pound [4] - The balance between recession risks and persistent inflation in the UK economy will lead the Bank of England to maintain cautious policy communication, with any hints of "rates remaining high for an extended period" potentially stabilizing the pound in the short term [4]

晚间（1月8日），美国三大股指集体下跌，纳指更是在开盘后跳水，截至收盘，道指收盘上涨270.03 点，涨幅为0.55%，报49266.11点；纳指跌104.26点，跌幅为0.44%，报23480.02点；标普500指数涨0.52 点，涨幅为0.01%，报6921.45点。 中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数在低开后爆发，截至收盘，热门中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数涨1.09%。哔哩哔哩涨逾6%，腾讯音乐、阿里巴巴涨超5%，金山云、小鹏汽车等涨超3%，京 东、唯品会等涨超2%，中通快递、富途控股等涨超1%。 另外值得注意的是黄金与白银，截至发稿，现货黄金跌超0.6%，白银更是暴跌逾5%。 世界黄金协会发布公告称，黄金在2025年12月份录得4%的涨幅，推动全年同比增长率达67%，创下数 十年来的最高年度回报纪录。2025年12月贵金属（包括白银和铂金）的飙升以及大宗商品指数再平衡， 可能在短期内引发市场波动。 据报道，美国财长贝森特表示，当前经济若要进一步走强，唯一欠缺的因素是美联储更大幅度的降息。 美联储理事米兰表示，他期望2026年降息150个基点，以提振劳动力市场。米兰在描述货币政策具有限 制性时表 ...

CBO预计，目前处于3.5%至3.75%区间的短期利率，到今年第四季度将降至约3.4%，并在此水平附近维 持至2028年。这意味着，美联储在完成有限的政策调整后，或将进入较长时间的观望期。 智通财经APP获悉，美国国会预算办公室(CBO)周四发布最新经济展望称，美联储可能还会小幅下调利 率，以"应对劳动力市场的下行风险"，但在此之后将暂停进一步宽松。报告指出，在关税上调以及特朗 普政府减税政策刺激需求的背景下，通胀预计将在未来数年持续高于美联储2%的目标水平。 经济增长方面，CBO预计美国今年经济增速将加快至2.2%，但在2027年至2028年期间，平均增速将回 落至1.8%。报告指出，人工智能推动的生产率提升以及减税政策带来的企业投资增加，将在一定程度 上抵消移民减少导致劳动力增速放缓的负面影响。 在宏观数据方面，CBO预测，美国失业率将在今年底升至4.6%，随后逐步回落，并于2028年降至 4.4%。以美联储偏好的指标衡量，通胀率预计今年降至2.7%，到2028年进一步回落至2.1%，但在相当 一段时间内仍高于政策目标。 总体来看，CBO的判断较美联储官员自身的预测略显悲观。美联储政策制定者在去年12月中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current policy interest rates are considered "clearly above neutral levels" according to Federal Reserve Governor Milan, who also anticipates a cumulative interest rate cut of approximately 150 basis points by 2026 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Milan emphasizes that it is "hard to believe" that current policy rates are neutral, indicating a preference for lower interest rates [1] - He advocates for the potential of the U.S. economy to expand employment without triggering inflation, suggesting that around one million jobs could be added without causing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ADP Research report shows that private sector employment in the U.S. increased by 41,000 in December, which fell short of market expectations [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Labor Department is anticipated, with economists predicting a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% for December [1]