本周美元指数与黄金价格走势呈现鲜明对比。美元指数在市场对全球贸易战担忧情绪显著缓解的推动下，预计将连续第二周录得上涨，收盘时有望 稳定在100整数关口附近，显示出美元在当前市场环境下的相对强势。与之相反，现货黄金市场则因多重利空因素交织而承压。避险情绪的消退、 美元指数的走高以及劳动节假期前交易员的获利清算行为，共同导致黄金价格连续第二周收跌，周五收于3241美元/盎司。 上周五的非农数据并未给市场带来显著意外，黄金价格在日内有所波动，但整体仍维持弱势格局。从技术面分析黄金价格在连续下跌后虽出现一定 程度的修复，但上方压力依然明显。特别是在1小时图上，均线呈现死叉向下的空头排列，表明短期趋势依然偏空。下周3270美元/盎司一线将成为 黄金价格多空争夺的关键点位。若该点位未能被有效突破，黄金价格或将维持震荡格局，多头反转仍需更多积极因素支撑。目前上方阻力在3264- 3270，下方支撑在3208-3200，操作上徐老师建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅。 操作策略1：建议反弹3265-3270空，损3275，目标看3240-3225。 操作策略2：建议回调3225-3220多，损3214，目标看3240-3255。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced significant volatility during the May Day holiday, with spot gold prices dropping over $50 in a single day, falling below $3240 per ounce, and showing a cumulative decline of over 5% from historical highs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The sharp decline in gold prices was influenced by multiple factors, including a easing of international trade tensions, as the U.S. is set to announce the first batch of trade agreements and potentially lower some tariffs, which alleviated global economic risk concerns and suppressed gold's safe-haven appeal [1] - Investor profit-taking due to heightened fear of high prices further exacerbated the drop in gold prices [1] Group 2: Regulatory Response - Regulatory bodies acted swiftly in response to the volatility, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusting trading fees, margins, and price limits for gold futures to mitigate market risks [1] - Several banks issued urgent warnings, advising investors to approach precious metal investments with caution due to increased volatility [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressure on gold prices, there remains a divergence in market sentiment regarding future trends, with some economic data suggesting a potential resurgence of safe-haven demand, while expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could provide upward momentum for gold [2] - Long-term support factors for gold prices include continued accumulation by global central banks, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of a weakening U.S. dollar, which may drive prices higher again [2] - The key variables for future gold price movements may hinge on the timing of Federal Reserve policy shifts and whether the global economy achieves a "soft landing" [2]

一、暴跌导火索：谁在背后推了一把？ 今天现货黄金直接摔了50美元，最低砸到3237美元，活像被抽了脊梁骨。翻翻最近的新闻，美国对华关税松动的风声是头号推手——特朗普说"高关税不可 持续"，市场一听，哎呦喂，贸易战要降温？避险情绪"唰"地就退潮了。再加上美联储那边降息预期推迟，美元指数蹭蹭反弹，黄金这位"避险大佬"瞬间失 宠。 各位老铁们好，我是帮主郑重，干了20年财经记者，今天带大家复盘黄金这场"跳水表演"。先说结论：金价这波跌得有点狠，但别急着喊"熊市来了"，咱们 先摸清市场这出戏的台前幕后。 黄金之前冲到3500美元时，那叫一个风光，但涨得越高摔得越狠。日线RSI指标飙到89，这就好比马拉松选手心率飙到180，身体肯定吃不消。更狠的是， 3500美元上方埋着200亿美元的量化止损单，价格一破位，程序化交易直接开启"割肉模式"，这哪是人工操作能扛得住的？ 黄金这波跌，让我想起2020年原油宝事件——市场先生永远比你想象得更任性。记住两招：政策风向比K线准（比如关注6月美联储议息会议），情绪极端 时反向操作（现在骂黄金的越多，反弹概率越大）。 最后送各位老铁句话："牛市赚钱是运气，熊市不亏才是本事。" 五一假 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article discusses the temporary suspension of tariffs on automotive steel and aluminum by Trump, which has led to a decrease in risk aversion in the market [1] - The article raises a question about whether gold can break the 3260 level in light of the current market conditions [1]

| | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年4月30日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1016 | 元/克 | 6 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 6 | 版 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 6 | 品 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 6 | 品 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 6 | 跌 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1018 | 元/克 | 7 | 联 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 6 | 品 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 9 | 跌 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 1005 | 元/克 | 0 | मे | | 上海中国黄金价格 | 993 | 元/克 | 13 | 品 | | 周大生黄金价格 | 1022 | 元/克 | 6 | 版 | 在关注黄金走势之余，再让我们来看一下铂金价格。以周生生黄金为例，今日黄金饰品价格下跌9元/克，铂金饰 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold prices corrected due to further slowdown in tariff expectations, decline in risk - aversion sentiment, and profit - taking by long positions. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, gold T + D, COMEX gold futures, and London gold spot all decreased [1]. - This week (the week of April 28), gold prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. In the short - term, they lack the momentum to rise further. In the long - term, factors such as US tariff pressure, policy uncertainty, and the risk of "stagflation" and economic recession will support gold prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Market Review 1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On April 25, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 787.20 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from April 18. The price of gold T + D was 784.93 yuan/gram, down 2.27 yuan/gram. Internationally, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3330.20 dollars/ounce, down 11.10 dollars/ounce from April 17, and the price of London gold spot was 3318.76 dollars/ounce, down 8.07 dollars/ounce [4]. - The trading data shows different trends in cumulative price changes, trading volumes, and positions for different gold products [7]. 1.2 Gold Basis - Last Friday, the international gold basis (spot - futures) turned positive to 5.10 dollars/ounce, up 22.55 dollars/ounce from the previous Thursday. The Shanghai gold basis was - 1.11 yuan/gram, up 1.43 yuan/gram from the previous Friday [8]. 1.3 Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - Last Friday, the gold domestic - foreign price spread was 16.58 yuan/gram, up from 12.20 yuan/gram the previous Friday. The spread increased because overseas tariff expectations eased, causing the decline of foreign gold prices to be greater than that of domestic ones. The gold - oil ratio slightly increased, the gold - silver ratio slightly decreased, and the gold - copper ratio continued to decline [11]. 1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, last week, the gold ETF holdings decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the holdings of the largest SPRD gold ETF were 946.27 tons, down 6.02 tons from the previous Thursday. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T + D increased significantly, up 75.86% from the previous week. - In terms of futures positions, as of April 22, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased, while the short positions increased, leading to a continuous decrease in net long positions. The COMEX gold futures inventory continued to decrease, and the SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 15678 kilograms [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Fundamentals 2.1 Important Economic Data - Under tariff threats, the Bank of Japan maintains a gradual interest - rate hike stance. It may lower the economic growth forecast from 1.1% to about 0.5% in the next quarterly report [19]. - The IMF downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8% from 3.3% in January. It also lowered the US economic growth forecast and estimated the probability of the US falling into recession in 2025 at 40% [20]. - The US April Markit composite PMI unexpectedly declined to the lowest in 16 months. The manufacturing PMI was higher than expected, but the service PMI and composite PMI were lower than expected [21]. - Trump plans to exempt some tariffs for automakers, but this does not include a 25% tariff on imported complete vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported auto parts starting on May 3 [22]. - In March, US durable goods orders increased by 9.2% month - on - month, but capital goods orders only increased by 0.1% due to tariff concerns [23]. - In March, US existing - home sales dropped by 5.9% month - on - month, the largest decline since November 2022 [24]. 2.2 Fed Policy Tracking - On April 24, Fed Governor Waller warned that the trade war might lead to an increase in unemployment. If tariffs remain unchanged, there will be no significant impact on the US economy before July. If tariffs rise, he may support interest - rate cuts. - Cleveland Fed President Hamark believes that the Fed should be patient with monetary policy in the face of high uncertainty and may take action as early as June if there is clear evidence of the economic direction [33]. 2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Last week, the US dollar index rebounded slightly during fluctuations. As the US Treasury Secretary hinted at the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, market risk appetite recovered, driving the dollar index up 0.36% to 99.58 as of last Friday [34]. 2.4 US TIPS Yield Trend - Last week, the speeches of Fed officials boosted market expectations of interest - rate cuts, causing the 10 - year TIPS yield to decline by 9bp to 2.02% as of last Friday [36]. 2.5 International Important Event Tracking - It is difficult for the Israeli - Palestinian sides to reach a cease - fire agreement, and the Russia - Ukraine situation remains uncertain. The Israeli military continued to bomb Gaza, and Qatar's Prime Minister said that there was some progress in a new cease - fire agreement in Gaza but a complete cease - fire was hard to achieve. Russia claimed to have recaptured the Kursk region, while Ukraine refuted it [40].

4月29日，受贸易谈判进展顺利影响，市场避险情绪降温，黄金短线回落。截至收盘，COMEX黄 金期货跌0.60%报3327.60美元/盎司。截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨0.71%，今年以来涨幅 达到26.96%；黄金股ETF（159562）下跌0.13%。 消息面上，美国商务部长卢特尼克表示，已与一个匿名国家达成贸易协议，且特朗普透露与印度的 关税谈判进展顺利。此外，特朗普计划签署行政令，豁免部分汽车制造商的关税，这些消息提振了市场 信心。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 美国劳工统计局周二公布报告显示，美国3月JOLTS职位空缺719.2万人，大幅不及预期的750万 人，较此前一个月显著回落，降至自去年9月以来的最低水平，显示出在经济不确定性加剧的背景下， 劳动力需求趋于疲软。在特朗普政策不确定性未明之前，企业正在搁置招聘计划，劳动力 ...

黄金周二（4月29日）早盘开盘后开始震荡下跌，一直到美盘最低跌至3300/3299附近后反弹，凌晨反弹3330附近受阻回落震荡，日线收出一根阴线。 一、基本面 政策变化：特朗普周二签署行政令减轻汽车关税冲击，美国商务部长透露已秘密达成对外贸易协议。在美国贸易协议希望的支撑下，美元指数震荡走高，重 回99关口上方。而随着避险情绪有所降温，现货黄金回调。这一政策转向是为应对关税政策对经济的负面影响，3月商品贸易逆差创历史新高，可能拖累一 季度GDP下滑。 经济数据：4月消费者信心指数跌至五年低谷，3月职位空缺骤降，经济学家下调GDP预期，高盛预测一季度经济将萎缩0.8%。这些数据虽使黄金短期承 压，但中长期避险逻辑依然存在。 市场预期：PCE通胀数据与非农就业报告即将公布，市场进入关键博弈期。关税缓和削弱黄金避险吸引力，经济放缓迹象强化美联储降息预期。期货市场押 注年内降息3-5次，政策预期与经济现实的落差将引发市场波动。 整体上，短期风险偏好回升压制金价，若本周数据证实经济衰退风险，美联储可能转向，黄金或迎来新一轮上涨。接下来密切关注周三PCE、一季度GDP数 据与周五非农数据，这些数据将对黄金走势起关键作用。 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a pullback but remain above key support levels, indicating potential for future strength after a period of adjustment [1][3][5] Market Performance - On April 29, gold opened at $3344.15 per ounce, reached a high of $3348.38, and closed at $3317.09, marking a daily decline of $27.06 or 0.81% [1] - The trading range for the day was between $3299.70 and $3348.38, with a volatility of $48.68 [1] Influencing Factors - The U.S. dollar index showed a slight recovery, applying pressure on gold prices, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline, providing some support for gold [3][5] - Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. Secretary of State's comments on Russia-Ukraine negotiations and threats from India towards Pakistan, have heightened risk aversion, benefiting gold prices [3][8] Future Outlook - The market anticipates that upcoming economic data, including U.S. ADP employment figures and GDP growth rates, will be favorable for gold prices [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of a potential rise towards the $3500 mark [8][10] Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate significant volatility with a range of over $540, yet gold maintains a strong upward trend above key support levels [10] - Weekly charts suggest a risk of further declines, but the overall trend remains supported by upward-moving averages and Bollinger Bands [11][12] Trading Strategy - Current trading strategy suggests monitoring support levels around $3308 and $3290, with resistance at $3328 and $3348 for gold [14]

美国关税谈判或有成果，避险情绪恐消退，黄金关键转换位在哪？点击观看金十研究员文成直播分析 相关链接 ...