本周贵金属市场持续剧烈波动，美联储降息预期分歧达到白热化。美联储理事沃勒坚持7月启动降息的必要性，旧 金山联储主席戴利则倾向于秋季实施两次降息，而芝加哥联储主席穆萨莱姆警告称，关税引发的通胀效应可能持 续到年底才能明朗。这一系列不同声音导致市场预期差不断拉大，显著推高贵金属市场波动率。 第四，美国财政政策引发美元信用体系动荡。特朗普签署的"大而美"法案带来巨额财政赤字，未来十年减税规模 将达4万亿美元，财政支出削减1.5万亿美元，导致财政缺口扩大至3.6万亿美元。IMF预计美国财政赤字率将攀升 至GDP的8.8%，美元信用风险加剧，进一步推高贵金属配置需求。 第五，投资与衍生品市场共同发力。央视新闻数据显示，实物银条、银元宝销量同比激增40%以上，零售投资热 情高涨。同时，白银ETF持仓持续上升，机构资金加速进场，形成资金共振效应。 展望后市，贵金属料将维持震荡偏强走势。黄金3300美元/盎司、白银36.5美元/盎司成为关键支撑位，光伏产业刚 性需求、"大而美"法案对美元信用的冲击，以及技术面突破37美元后打开的38-40美元上行空间，将共同构筑白银 的强势格局。 限时抢金 年化36%奖金入 BCR Co P ...

Group 1: Gold Market - The ongoing conflict between the Federal Reserve and the White House is influencing market expectations for interest rate cuts, which is expected to support gold prices [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary suggests that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, while President Trump advocates for a reduction of up to 300 basis points [2] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations, with a deadline of August 1 for agreements, adds to the volatility in the gold market [2] Group 2: Oil Market - The latest API data shows a decrease of 577,000 barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, which is below market expectations and may negatively impact oil prices [4] - Upcoming discussions between the U.S. and China may address China's oil purchases from Russia and Iran, potentially affecting oil market dynamics [4] - OPEC+ compliance with production cuts, except for Kazakhstan, suggests that oil supply may remain constrained, providing support for oil prices [4] Group 3: Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is showing signs of a significant upward movement, with a potential breakout from its previous trading range [5] - Attention is drawn to the support level at 40,700, which may influence future price movements [5] Group 4: Copper Market - Recent trading in copper shows a strong upward trend, with multiple consecutive days of gains indicating bullish sentiment [7] - The 20-day and 62-day moving averages are trending upwards, suggesting continued strength in the copper market [7] - Short-term focus is on the support level at $5.61, which may be tested during market fluctuations [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent performance and trends in the gold market, particularly focusing on the rise of gold ETFs and the impact of geopolitical factors and monetary policy on gold prices [1][3][5] - The gold ETF fund (159937) saw a 0.91% increase with a trading volume of 165 million yuan, and a net inflow of 156 million yuan over the past four days [1][2] - As of July 22, the spot gold price reached $3431.20 per ounce, marking a 1.02% increase and the highest level since June 16, driven by rising safe-haven demand amid trade uncertainties [3][4] Group 2 - Global central banks have shown a strong appetite for gold purchases, reflecting concerns over economic uncertainty and the weakening of the dollar's credibility, with China's gold reserves reaching 7.39 million ounces (approximately 2298.55 tons) as of June 2025 [5] - The upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations and the Jackson Hole central bank conference are expected to influence interest rate expectations and market volatility, but the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact [6][7] - Gold ETFs and related funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options, allowing investors to hedge against economic downturns and participate in the gold market [8]

来源：李生论金 黄金重回3400美元，三个多月的时间，反复多空拉扯，搞得大家都没心情了，现在是黎明前的黑暗，还是震荡将继续？ 从4月价金价刷新3500美元以来，到今天刚好3个月的时间，最低打到3100美元附近，400美元内宽幅震荡。 主要影响就是特朗普实施的对等关税，所有贸易伙伴无差别征收关税，搞得全球各国人心惶惶，不知道大棒会落到谁头上。 这场关税大战只是开始，真正的激战还没有到来，最后时间就是8月1日，距离这个时间越来越近了，避险情绪被激活，大量资金涌入黄金市场， 金价再次被推高到3400美元。 不过，我认为从大的方向而言，这次上涨远没有结束，突破3500美元市场会进入"真空"地带，之前着急下车的朋友又得跑步入场了，这个过程一 定是反复洗盘，不会轻易的让多数人留下来了。 注意，多头上涨后不要太兴奋，必定震荡还没有打破，昨天我在《黄金，3355多！》一文中明确表示只多不空，就连昨晚内部直播时金价在3375 时，有人提出这里是三重顶，考虑短线博回调，而我的答案是：不空。上方关注3386/3392/3400。 注意，今天早上开盘后冲击3402美元之后，并没有延续上涨，而是回落破位了凌晨低点3391，这里破位后就 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices slightly retreated to $3,390 per ounce, ending a two-day rally, but overall upward momentum remains supported by safe-haven demand amid unresolved US-EU trade negotiations and challenges to Federal Reserve policy independence [3] - The technical analysis indicates that gold is still in an upward channel, with a short-term pullback potentially setting the stage for a new rally [3] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, indicating that bulls are still in control [3] - Short-term resistance is at $3,452 (three-month high), and a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards historical highs of $3,500 and even the channel's upper limit of $3,630 [3] - Initial support is at the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $3,358, with a breakdown pointing to the channel's lower limit and the 50-day moving average at $3,316 [3] - The gold market is currently at the intersection of increasing macro uncertainty and technical consolidation [3] - Despite a short-term pressure from a rebound in the US dollar, factors such as stalled trade negotiations and escalating political pressure on the Federal Reserve continue to provide strong medium-term upward momentum [3] - It is expected that gold prices will oscillate between $3,350 and $3,450, and if safe-haven sentiment persists, a breakthrough above key resistance could lead to a move towards $3,500 [3] Group 2: Trading Strategies - A trading strategy suggests looking for a short position in gold within the range of $3,393 to $3,395, with a stop-loss above $3,405 and a target at $3,375 to $3,373 [5] - Another recommendation indicates a long position at $3,360, with a stop-loss at the morning low of $3,344 and a target of $3,382 [6]

【环球网财经综合报道】周一美盘时段，现货黄金价格强势突破3400美元/盎司关口，创6月17日以来新高，日内涨幅近1.5%。贸易谈判不确定性 叠加降息预期升温，推动资金涌入避险资产，其他贵金属同步走强：白银涨1.8%、铂金升2.2%、钯金飙升3.5%。 美元指数跌近0.8%，10年期美债收益率跌至一周低点，降低持有黄金的机会成本。High Ridge Futures金属主管David Meger指出："关税大限临近 和降息预期升温构成双重利好，黄金成为不确定性中的'安全锚'。" SPI Asset Management合伙人Stephen Innes表示，欧盟调整对俄石油出口价格上限引发能源供应担忧，日本首相石破茂执政不稳可能干扰美日贸易 谈判，进一步推高市场避险情绪。他强调，贸易战、政治动荡与通胀隐忧交织，黄金作为防御性资产的需求将持续强劲。（陈十一） 美国政府设定8月1日为贸易协议最后期限，否则将加征更多关税。欧盟外交人士透露，与美谈判前景黯淡，欧盟正酝酿反制措施，包括动用"反胁 迫工具"限制美企进入金融服务市场及欧盟招标。德国政府暗示支持此举，加剧市场对贸易冲突升级的担忧。 芝商所数据显示，交易员预计美联 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美元走低，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，金价走高；美国三大股指收 盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率全线走低，10年期美债收益 率跌3.38个基点报4.3757%；美元指数跌0.64%报97.83，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值 报7.1810；COMEX黄金期货涨1.55%报3410.30美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办发布会、人社部二季度新闻发布会、美联储主席鲍威尔及 委员讲话。国内风险偏好改善，贸易担忧再起，降息预期高涨，美元走弱，金价震 荡收涨。沪金溢价收敛至-1.1元/ ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.25% and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.07% as of midday close [1] - The total market turnover reached 137.79 billion HKD [1] - Automotive stocks generally rose, with NIO Inc. increasing over 4% and BYD Company Limited rising over 2% [1] Group 2 - Power equipment stocks continued their strong performance, with Harbin Electric Company Limited rising over 8% [1] - Chinese brokerage stocks were active, with GF Securities Co., Ltd. increasing nearly 4% [1] - Gold stocks saw a general increase, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. rising over 4%, driven by risk aversion and fluctuations in the US dollar [1] Group 3 - Cement and building materials stocks experienced some pullback, with Huaxin Cement Co., Ltd. declining over 11% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed performance, with Hua Hong Semiconductor Limited rising over 3% while Horizon Robotics fell over 3% [1]

Market Overview - Investors are focused on a busy week of earnings reports, including major companies like Tesla and Google A, leading to a collective rise in the three major U.S. stock indices [1] - European stocks experienced a slight decline amid unclear U.S.-EU tariff negotiations, while Japanese markets showed short-term recovery [1][3] U.S. Stock Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.7%, and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.4%, both reaching intraday all-time highs [2] - Tesla's stock increased by over 2% following Elon Musk's announcement of significant advancements in the company's autonomous driving capabilities [2] - Trump's Media Technology Group saw a rise of over 7% after announcing a total Bitcoin reserve purchase of $2 billion [2] European Stock Performance - European stocks opened slightly lower, with the pan-European index down nearly 0.2% and German stocks declining over 0.1% [3] - The automotive manufacturer Stellantis reported a loss of €2.3 billion (approximately $2.7 billion) in the first half of the year due to restructuring costs and sales slowdown, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [10] Currency and Commodity Movements - The Japanese yen appreciated by about 1% against the U.S. dollar, while the U.S. dollar index fell nearly 0.5% [4][16] - Gold prices rose by over 1%, and silver prices increased by nearly 0.9% [6][24] - Crude oil prices saw a slight decline, with U.S. oil down over 0.1% and Brent oil down over 0.3% [7][24] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell for the fourth consecutive day, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield decreasing by about 4 basis points [5][14] - The decline in yields reflects investor sentiment amid tariff threats and concerns regarding potential changes in Federal Reserve leadership [14]

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices remained stable around $3354, following a 0.35% increase last Friday due to a weaker dollar and ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties that boosted demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The decline of the dollar index by 0.5% made gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, potentially increasing its appeal [1] Group 2: U.S. Dollar and Inflation - The U.S. dollar fell against the euro last Friday but maintained weekly gains as investors assessed expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies amid signs that tariffs might increase inflationary pressures [3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise this summer due to tariff policies, which delayed expectations for potential interest rate cuts [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal funds futures traders anticipate a total of 46 basis points in rate cuts by the end of the year, likely consisting of two 25 basis point cuts, with the first expected in September [4] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed caution regarding the inflationary impact of tariffs but maintained that the U.S. economy is in good shape, suggesting significant rate cuts within the next 12 months [3][4] Group 4: Trade Negotiations - Ongoing trade negotiations between the U.S. and the EU are facing challenges, with the U.S. aiming for nearly comprehensive tariffs on EU goods, while the EU seeks to continue negotiations to resolve the impasse before the August 1 deadline [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated potential for a "good agreement" with Japan, while discussions with Indonesia regarding a new trade deal are still in progress [4] Group 5: Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached new highs in recent weeks, as investor sentiment regarding the impact of Trump's tariff threats has become more complex, with reduced fears about the potential damage to the U.S. economy [5] - This week is viewed as a critical period for assessing how Trump's economic policies will affect the broader economy, with key focus on Powell's speech and the European Central Bank's decisions [5]