国家统计局副局长盛来运：今年以来，主要指标好于预期，我国经济保持了稳中有进、稳中向好态势。 （新华财经） ...

国家统计局：我国经济保持了稳中有进、稳中向好态势 智通财经7月15日电，国家统计局副局长盛来运7月15日在国新办发布会上说，今年以来，主要指标好于 预期，我国经济保持了稳中有进、稳中向好态势。 (新华财经) ...

原标题：乘势而上，巩固回升向好态势（人民时评） 近日，国家统计局公布中国经济半年报。在复杂严峻的外部环境下，一季度实现良好开局，二季度延续 恢复态势，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.5%。我国经济运行持续回升向好，展现出巨大的 发展韧性，充分表明我们国家具有开顶风船、走上坡路的能力。 读懂中国经济，既要关注增速，也要分析结构、质量。从增速看，上半年的经济增速，快于去年全年的 3%，也快于一季度的4.5%，回升态势明显。从结构看，上半年，服务业增加值占GDP的比重达到 56%，最终消费支出对经济增长的贡献率达77.2%，高技术产业投资增速明显快于全部投资增速，产 业、消费、投资结构在持续优化。从质量看，高技术行业增势良好，新产业成长壮大，新业态持续活 跃，绿色转型和经济增长的协同发展成效不断显现。综合看，环比增速连续4个季度增长，市场活力不 断释放，这都表明中国经济"稳"的基础不断加固，"进"的动能加速集聚，高质量发展持续推进。 读懂中国经济，也要放在全球视野里观察。今年一季度，美国、欧元区、日本GDP同比增速都在2%以 下，即便考虑到二季度情况，上半年中国经济增速仍然是主要经济体中较快的。在世界经济增 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and outlook of the Chinese economy, highlighting the impact of external factors such as the US-China trade war and domestic policy measures that have contributed to economic stability and growth. Group 1: Economic Performance - The GDP growth rate for the first half of the year is expected to be around 5.3%, with a need for only 4.7% growth in the second half to meet the annual target [1] - The first quarter saw a GDP growth of 5.4%, while the second quarter is projected to be around 5.2% [2] - The overall economic performance is stable, with industrial value-added growth at 6.5% in the first quarter and service sector growth at 5.8% [5] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The export growth rate fluctuated due to the US-China tariff war, peaking at 12.3% in March before declining to 4.8% in May [2] - The share of exports to the US has decreased to the lowest level on record, impacting overall export performance [2] - The article anticipates a 2.0% growth in exports for the year, with various scenarios predicting outcomes ranging from 0% to 3.5% [10][11] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Policy Response - Domestic demand is gradually stabilizing due to proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing [3] - Social financing stock grew by 8.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with government bonds seeing a significant increase of 20.9% [3] - Retail sales growth reached 6.4% in May, driven by consumption policies such as the "old-for-new" program [3] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.7% in the first five months, with infrastructure investment increasing by 5.6% [13] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 7.8% for the year, while real estate investment is projected to decline by 10.0% [23][16] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the second half, supported by ample funding and ongoing major projects [18][19] Group 5: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is expected to grow by 4.5% for the year, with retail sales showing a recovery trend [27] - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has significantly boosted consumption in various sectors [28] - However, consumer confidence remains low, and spending may decline in the second half due to reduced subsidy support and economic uncertainties [29] Group 6: Price Trends - CPI is projected to remain around 0% for the year, with a slight recovery expected in the second half [31][32] - PPI is anticipated to decline by 2.3% for the year, reflecting ongoing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [34][35] Group 7: Policy Outlook - The article suggests that macroeconomic policies will focus on stabilizing growth without significant new stimulus, emphasizing the implementation of existing policies [37][38] - Fiscal policies will prioritize the effective use of existing funds to support consumption and investment [40][41] - Monetary policy is expected to remain flexible, with a focus on structural support rather than aggressive easing [42][43]

上交所发布的A股新开户数据显示，今年6月A股新开户约165万户，上半年累计新开户数达到1260万 户，较2024年上半年累计新开户数949万户增长超32%。新股民加速入场，说明A股价值投资深入人 心，越来越多的非股民转变为股民，这也是A股长期向好的新基础。 新股民数量的激增，首先反映了A股市场对外围资金的吸引力。在宏观经济稳步复苏、政策面持续释放 利好的背景下，A股市场展现出较强的韧性。从估值水平看，经过前期调整，部分优质蓝筹股与成长股 的估值已处于历史低位，为新入场投资者提供了"安全垫"。与此同时，资本市场改革不断深化，注册制 全面推行、退市制度完善、投资者保护机制加强等举措，显著提升了市场透明度与公平性，增强了投资 者对市场的信任感。 新股民的涌入，亦是对中国经济长期向好基本面的积极"投票"。在全球经济不确定性增加的背景下，中 国经济的稳健增长、产业升级的持续推进以及消费市场的巨大潜力，为A股提供了坚实的业绩支撑。新 股民选择此时入场，本质上是看好中国经济的确定性，体现了市场对优质资产配置需求的上升。 新股民加速入市，更深层次的意义在于价值投资理念在中国资本市场的普及与深化。过去，A股市场曾 存在短期投机 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Summer Davos Forum highlights the significance of AI as a core topic, with numerous AI-related discussions and product demonstrations taking center stage [1][2] - Chinese companies showcased their technological breakthroughs in AI, emphasizing China's growing importance in the global AI landscape [2] - The forum's agenda includes a special focus on China's AI development path, reflecting international recognition of China's role in innovation and technology [2] Group 2 - The World Economic Forum's report indicates that 56% of chief economists expect a weakening global economy by 2025, highlighting the need for collaboration and creativity in addressing economic challenges [2] - Despite external pressures, China's economy has shown resilience, with new growth drivers emerging and a stable overall economic performance [3] - "Interpreting China's economy" is one of the most discussed topics at the forum, with participants eager to explore technology-driven growth models that could invigorate China's economic vitality [3]

Economic Overview - The report from Tsinghua University's ACCEPT indicates signs of stabilization in China's economy in the first half of 2025, highlighted by a nominal GDP growth rate of 4.6%, an increase from the second half of the previous year [2] - Industrial upgrades are progressing, with the growth of value-added in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing outpacing the overall level of industrial enterprises [2] - There is a recovery in consumption, with the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods accelerating compared to the previous month [2] Risks and Challenges - Employment pressure remains significant, with a declining proportion of employed individuals aged 16-59 over the past 15 years and increasing youth unemployment [2] - The real estate market is struggling, with low sales and high inventory levels, leading to a continuous decline in development investment [2] - There are downward pressures on the GDP deflator index, CPI, and PPI, indicating potential economic challenges [2] - Many industries are experiencing internal competition, with large accounts receivable and extended collection periods, alongside a noticeable decline in profit margins in the manufacturing sector over the past five years [2] - Increasing international instability poses additional risks to the economy [2] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that local governments may increase taxes and non-tax revenues to alleviate fiscal pressure, which could dampen corporate enthusiasm [3] - It emphasizes the need to shift from traditional public finance to modern public finance, focusing on long-term fiscal balance and providing high-quality government bonds to support financial markets [3] - The report advocates for a systematic enhancement of policy tools to address the challenges in the real estate sector, particularly in the context of local government reliance on development [4] Real Estate Sector Insights - The real estate market shows signs of partial recovery, especially in first-tier cities, following the "three-year guarantee of delivery" policy, although second-hand housing prices continue to decline [4] - There is a need to activate non-residential real estate through mechanisms like REITs to stimulate market recovery [4] - The report highlights the importance of addressing the challenges in the stock housing market and suggests a shift towards a storage mechanism for affordable housing supply [5] Economic Growth Drivers - The report identifies three key areas to activate economic growth: establishing a social security cross-regional flow mechanism, innovating old community reconstruction models, and developing a long-term rental market for rural housing [5] - It emphasizes the necessity of enhancing domestic demand and consumer confidence to stabilize economic growth [6] - The report also notes that the potential for significant disruptive events impacting China is limited, with domestic growth and stability being crucial for navigating international challenges [6]

Economic Growth and Price Trends - China's GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% for three consecutive quarters, but price levels continue to weaken[1] - CPI has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, while PPI has dropped to -3.3%[1] - In contrast to 2015, when growth and prices were negatively correlated, the current situation shows high growth with persistent price weakness[1] Historical Comparison - In 2015, GDP growth slowed from 7.1% in the first half to 6.9% by Q4, with PPI declining by 5.9% in Q4, the lowest since 2010[1] - Policy easing began in late 2014, with significant measures taken in 2015, leading to a recovery in both growth and prices by mid-2017[1] Current Economic State - The current economic state is characterized as atypical, with high growth not translating into price increases, indicating a potential trend of prolonged price weakness[1] - Marginal improvements in domestic prices are noted, with core CPI showing signs of recovery since Q4 of the previous year[1] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[2]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China rose for two consecutive months, indicating a continuous improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][4] - In June, the manufacturing PMI reached 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, signaling a stable expansion in production activities [2][4] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, reflecting a stable expansion in both supply and demand within the manufacturing sector [4][6] Group 2 - The non-manufacturing sector continued to expand, with the business activity index showing a slight increase while remaining in the expansion zone [8] - Key industries such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance reported business activity indices above 60%, indicating robust growth in these sectors [8] - The construction industry, particularly civil engineering, maintained a high business activity index above 55% for three consecutive months, driven by increased investment activities [10] Group 3 - The resilience of the Chinese economy is highlighted by the strong internal momentum and stable production operations, with the PMI serving as a crucial leading indicator [12][14] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to external factors, the overall economic growth remains stable, supported by ongoing policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [14]

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - Among the 21 surveyed industries, 11 are in the expansion zone, an increase of 4 from the previous month, reflecting a broader improvement in manufacturing conditions [3] - The production index and new orders index stand at 51% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing increases of 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities and market demand [3] Group 2 - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods have maintained PMIs in the expansion zone for two consecutive months, with production and new orders indices above 53% [5] - The PMI for high-energy-consuming industries, while still below the critical point, has shown signs of recovery this month [5] - The overall manufacturing PMI and its sub-indices reflect a rebound trend, indicating that internal economic momentum is gradually being released and resilience in economic growth is strengthening [7] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is reported at 50.5%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [8] - The service sector's performance remains stable, with financial services, capital market services, and insurance industries showing business activity indices above 60%, indicating rapid growth in these areas [8] - The construction sector, particularly civil engineering, has seen a significant rebound, with business activity indices remaining above 55% for three consecutive months, reflecting robust progress in infrastructure projects [8][10]